Tag Archives: Adrian Peterson

Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

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As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

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This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Fantasy Focus: Week 15 Fantasy Football Preview

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This is the 2nd Week of Fantasy Playoffs in some leagues, the first in others, regardless, who to play is a big deal. Last week Josh finished atop the charts for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks, or something like that, and his picks have been on fire lately. I finished second, as some tough defensive picks and a goose egg from quarterbacks had the poo-fan pointed in my direction. Ryan and Papa are both trying to pick up some winners as the last few weeks wrap up, and you better believe I’ll be trying to hold onto the overall title. Doing work. This week I have some solid sleepers ready to wake up and give you a playoff win if you need some help, as I’ve placed an extra five guys in my “super sleeper” realm – guys that are waiver wire fodder right now, ready to spring into starter action for draft pick duds. It’s playoffs, nobody’s feelings will be hurt, just play the best guys out there! Here goes many things….

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Wes Welker – Defenses can focus in on Randy, that’s fine, but Wes had 12 catches against Buffalo earlier this year, he will have a teen count this week.
2. Ray Rice –  I have to stick with Ray Rice, the Bears can’t keep up with the main man in Baltimore.
3. Adrian Peterson – Carolina’s pass D is actually decent, their run D, well, you’ll see.
4. Drew Brees – You know Drew has that fire wanting a win over Dallas, and you know he’s going to make that secondary cry.
5. Chris Johnson – I will not take CJ off this list, he’s a must play, at the top of the world right now.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson – Despite last week’s lockdown on Arizona, the 49ers secondary has some holes, DeSean will find them.
2. Jamal Charles – The kid is lightening quick, and given 20 touches, he’s as good as gold in this match-up.
3. Thomas Jones – I like Thomas a lot again, his match-up is just too good, and he’ll get his carries.
4. Cedric Benson –The Chargers can give up some yards on the ground, and I feel a 120+ yard day coming for Benson.
5. Brandon Jacobs – I like his style, and his punishing runs look to be back. Albert might be out, look for 18-20 carries and yards to match.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –Again, he’s the best back in Seattle, again, he’ll have the most fantasy points amongst them, and Tampa, nice match-up.
2. Quentin Ganther – The Giants D front doesn’t scare me like they used to, the Redskins O scares me more than ever. Deal.
3. Vince Young– I like him again, if he’s still out there, he’s a nice spot start for a 2nd straight week.
4. Laurence Maroney– LM has been consistent, at the very least, for the Patriots – I think he runs a lot again in Week 15.
5. Alex Smith– The thought of the Eagles secondary says no, but don’t get tricked, if you don’t have a top guy, need a starter, Smith is a solid play.
6. Steve Breaston – He might be on the Waivers after a few pooformances, but Larry Fitz might be out, and the match-up is good, I like starting Ta-Tas this week.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Brady Quinn – Everyone is saying no, the Chiefs D beat up the Bills passing attack last week, and Brady threw for under 100 yards – so what, I like the match-up. If you need him, don’t feel like you’re going to die. At least double digit fantasy points from Quinn.
2. Chris Jennings – He might not be on the waiver, but I picked him up in a couple leagues, so he’s out there in most. He plays the Chiefs D and looks like a solid option if you have nothing else.
3. Maurice Morris – He could very well be in for starter carries, and some grabs out of the backfield as well, you could do worse than MoMo.
4. Devin Aromashodu – Let me say this, Jay Cutler has been lobbying for him getting more playing time for weeks, he finally gets it and puts up 21 fantasy points. Like it.
5. Greg Camarillo – Last week’s performance isn’t that crazy, and while I don’t see 100 yards, 5+ catches and 50+ yards seems likely against the Titans.
6. Deon Butler – Call me crazy, and this would be a tough start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it worked out. Burleson is out, and while Branch is #3, Butler is the big play guy left – I think he has a couple this week and has his best fantasy week of the year.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Hines Ward– Great player, struggling team, tough D, tough start in my opinion.
2. Mario Manningham– After a great start, MM is back-up duty, and against one of the best secondaries in the league, not a good start.
3. Matt Forte – Weird, Matt’s here again, I think he’ll do more blocking than running against the Ravens.
4. LeSean McCoy –I like the rookie a lot, I just think the Niners shut him down, and the Eagles find quicker ways to gain yardage.
5. Kyle Orton– I like the Broncos to win, yes, but pass a lot? no. Orton might get close to 200 yards, but I doubt he gets over that mark. More than a touchdown through the air? No – sit him.

***Nate Burleson is out. Turner is still a bit risky. Don’t start JaMarcus Russell unless you are throwing your playoff game, and if you are starting Charlie “Brown” Frye, I’m sorry for your mixed luck, nothing like getting to the playoffs and having to start a peanuts character***

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Fantasy Focus: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

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Okay, so I’m a little butt-hurt after losing the crown to a non-family member last week, but then I started thinking, friends, good ones, they’re like family anyway – and as much as I believe that, and know that it’s true, it didn’t make me feel one ounce of better. Josh won last week, inching me here, sneaking past me there, and just finishing ahead of me in numerous areas. I don’t like the feeling and I don’t like losing to friends, it’s almost worst than losing to people I don’t know – shoot, it’s 10x worse than losing to people I don’t know.

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Anyway, this week should see the title return to the rightful owner of pure fantasy genius. It’s an all RB Elite starts this week, I couldn’t pass it up with so many great match-ups. Consequently, there are 5 RBs there and not one of them is Adrian Peterson against Detroit. I justify that by saying that Detroit allows a lot more passing TDs than rushing scores, that the Vikings like to rest Peterson when up big against bad teams, and AP has just 2 100+ yard rushing games this year. But why do I feel like that’s going to come back to haunt me? Oh well. Here’s this week’s fantasy focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Ray Rice– I never thought I’d put Ray Rice as my number guy, but he’s been great.
2. Chris Johnson – I think this game will be closer than people predict, but CJ will kill.
3. Michael Turner – Atlanta’s back to doing what they do best, and Turner is solid.
4. DeAngelo Williams – The Falcons can’t stop him, but John Fox will try.
5. Thomas Jones– “@ Jacksonville” – that’s all I needed to see.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I think he has a big week in Pittsburgh, despite struggling last time.
2. Percy Harvin – I love they dynamic rookie going up against the TD giving Lions.
3. Pierre Thomas – Somebody has to carry 20+ times against the Rams, I pick PT.
4. Devin Hester – I don’t see the Bears running very successfully in San Fran.
5. Sidney Rice –He basically went undrafted, but he’s been too good to be a sleeper.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Reggie Bush – Face it, he’s down to sleeper status, but I think he’s worth a start.
2. Beanie Wells – Call it a feeling, but Beanie might have his best game as a pro.
3. Steve Breaston –Ta-tas likes to hurt the Hawks, even with Boldin in he’s worthy.
4. Mark Sanchez– He’ll be solid, and his running ability will accrue some points.
5. Ricky Williams – Ricky has been good this year, maybe he shouldn’t be considered a sleeper, but either way, he’s worth a flex spot against the Bucs defense.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– I might start him, but I won’t like it. I don’t see Addai running much.
2. Wes Welker– The Colts often do a good job on Wes ~ 7 catches for 40 yards I expect.
3. Matt Forte – You never know, but I think, and that’s good enough for me to sit him.
4. Mike Sims-Walker– I think D. Revis continues his work on big receivers.
5. Julius Jones– A nice game last week, but nothing for him in Arizona.

***One very small Bye for Week 10: don’t play Giants or Texans, they’re throwing a two team party in Vegas! Mind this little Gap!!!

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Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

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Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16) Free Football Pick: The last time these two played the line was (-10) in Detroit, and it was actually pretty close to a Lions cover. This time it’s (-16) and it’s not like people think of either of these teams any differently. They still think the Vikings are legit and they know the Lions smell like… Sour beans. So, I would say this line is inflated a couple points – it should probably be 13.5, maybe, at the very most 14 – but it’s on the move and already up to 17 at a couple books. But I’m not scared.

Okay, I’m a little scared – I don’t like taking anybody at -16. This is pro football and if you’re ever a 16 point dog you are probably a good value bet. But even good value bets lose. And the way Matthew Stafford has been playing, and the way Minnesota just got two weeks to heal up and prepare for a Lions team that just pissed away a 17 point lead against the Seahawks a week ago, I just have to go against value and stick with Adrian Peterson and company.

Only 3 of the Lions 7 losses are by 16 points or more. They lost by 18 to New Orelans in Week 1. They were tied at 21 with the Bears in Chicago at half time, but they were outscored 27-3 in the second half and lost by 24. And they got shut out by the Packers 26-0. Last time around, Minnesota fought back after being down 10-7 at half time to win by two touchdowns and cover the 10 point spread.

The Lions have been double digit underdogs five times this year (which is amazing all by itself) and in those five games, they’ve lost against the spread four times (which is even more amazing. As double digit favorites this year, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS.

So, all things considered, all values ignored, I’ll put a little on the Vikings expecting more problems from Detroit.

Ten for Tuesday: Week 7 Fantasy Football Analysis

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“JaMarcus Russell, thank you for making an appearance on my fantasy team this week. I thought I was being a good owner, finding the only quarterback on the waiver wire that was starting, and giving Week 7 my best shot despite some tough bye weeks for my squad. But when it comes right down to it, my team had a better chance if I had not picked you up at all. Your stay will be brief, in fact I’ll cut you right now. Be gone!” Red Red Ryan couldn’t find a stop gap, he found a grenade…. 

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 Paul Simon may have diamonds on the soles of his shoes, but Adrian Peterson has William Gay’s pride on the soles of his shoes. If you haven’t seen it, and you like football at all, (or if you just like to see what happens when you mess with the bull) check this out! AP Gives William Gay the Horns! The kid truly is special, if the Vikings weren’t so worried about AP’s physical running style and the way it effects his health, he’d touch the ball 40 times a game. And that wouldn’t be enough…..

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Chad Henne threw a dime to Ted Ginn Jr. that was going to go for about 35 yards, and put the Fins that much closer to a kill shot on the Saints this week. But wait, Ted Ginn Jr. decided to tap the ball up into the air instead of just catching it, then he fell down, the ball just happened to go right into Darren Sharper’s hands, and he did what he does, scoring a touchdown, getting the Saints back in it, and highlighting that one thing that Ted Ginn Jr. just can’t seem to figure out – catch the damn ball. I can see Henne losing some confidence in Ginn, and then, that elite speed and Henne’s big arm will see fewer and fewer long distance get-togethers. Oh Ted, stick-em man, stick-em….   

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I have something to say about Vernon Davis, WOW! That guy is really, really talented. He took a shot near the goal line this Sunday that would put almost every single skill player right on their aces, but not Vernon, he kept his balance and walked into the end zone. Everybody, and probably rightfully so, labeled Mr. Davis a bum, err, a bust after his first couple seasons in the league, but I hope everyone realizes what Mike Singletary’s leadership has done to this kid’s game. He’s always had the ability, and he’s always worked hard, but he’s focused every snap on Sunday’s and he could be something special for a long time…..  

Speaking of amazing plays by a tight end, has anyone seen somebody hold onto a ball after a hit better than Kevin Boss? If you missed it, Boss grabbed a ball with his finger tips then got absolutely obliterated by the Cardinals’ safety. He flipped all the way around and landed in a fashion that should have jarred the ball loose. But he’s tough. As nails. And he held on. Ted Ginn Jr., TO, go ahead and take a note or two on Boss’s catch….. 

Can somebody please tell me how John Fox, or his offensive coordinator, at the very least, still has a job? Down 7-2 at half, the Panthers come out throwing the damn ball. Why? Well, despite running effectively throughout the first half, they wanted to go back to their strength, interceptions. The Panthers are a running team, even Fox will tell you that, but somehow they always end up relying on the pass. Last time I checked, 7-2 to start the 3rd doesn’t eliminate the run from the playbook….. 

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Don’t look now, but the Packers might actually pull their heads out and start handing Ryan Grant the ball 20+ times a game. I know it was Cleveland, a runner’s dream, but 27 carries for the big guy turned into 147 yards, and the Packers’ second blowout of the season (both 20+ carry games for Grant). Even against St. Louis, they didn’t start pulling away until they started feeding Grant the rock in the 2nd half. Grant runs really hard, straight down hill, and he could open a lot of play action for Jennings and Driver if they commit, this game might allow them to realize what that means….  

I wonder if, when the Bears dropped Cedric Benson, they ever thought he’d come back in a couple years, go up against them, and basically beast them all day long. Hmmm. I wonder if they thought Benson would be the best player on the field after they signed Jay Cutler to a big contract 2 year extension earlier in the week. Hmmm. I’m going to go on ahead and guess no on both accounts. Ced went balls out on Sunday, turning Chicago into a sieved. He wanted the ball, and he got it, 37 times. Nasty…..  

Yes, you can go ahead and mark it down, Shonn Greene and Miles Austin are both for real. Now Miles is going to be the sure thing heading forward, he’s going to start, and I don’t care how much money Roy Williams Jr. is getting paid, Austin is going to be the #1 in Dallas, and you all saw what Tony Romo can do when he has a sure thing guy out wide. But Greene, he’s a guy that many people might see as a one-game fixer. Listen, the Jets are going to run the ball early and often from here on out. Thomas Jones is a good back, yes, but he can’t carry the ball 25-30 times a game and stay healthy, not even with those huge freaking arms – so Green will get touches, and he’ll continue to show his worth. He was a beast in college, and he’ll be a beast for the Jets….. 

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Nobody can stop Vincent Jackson! It’s not like the Chiefs were a ferocious foe, but it needs to be said. This guy doesn’t get the kind of credit he deserves, but he’s in that Top 10 group of receivers. He has elite speed, elite size, good jumps, and his hands have turned into sure things. He does it all, truly, and Phillip Rivers will continue to aim his marshmallows in Vincent’s general direction. If you can, get him quick!!!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 7 Fantasy Football

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Have some good ones early this week, why waste any more of your rancid time with my introduction, you want to get to the questions and answers like I want to get to my Philly Cheese cake that I’m not supposed to eat. So on with it. Again, you can always post your questions any time you want, just send them to me at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here all week!

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Kyle M-Dot of Ferndale, Washington asks, “Who do u think is the best running back in the NFL and who do u think will go to the Super Bowl?”

Thanks for the email my man. As for the best RB in the NFL, that’s a tough call. I think Adrian Peterson, as just a raw runner, is one of the toughest guys to bring down. What he did to one of the best run defenses in the league last week was pretty awesome. 140+ yards against that team is gnarly, but his strength and work ethic really makes him special. I don’t think his vision is awesome (like Jones-Drew or Brian Westbrook) but his ability to go through tacklers probably makes him the best RB in the NFL in my mind. He has awesome speed, really quick cuts, and is tough to tackle. If he didn’t have a case of the fumbles, and was a good receiver, he’d be one of the best ever.

As for the Super Bowl, I hate the Saints and have never been a big Colts fan, but they really seem tough to beat. I’ve always known they had good offenses, but the way their defenses have stepped up is pretty amazing. Also, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, two very different talent/prospect levels, are two of the best quarterbacks I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a lot. And despite losing recently, I like the chances the Eagles and Giants have of possibly upsetting the Saints and getting to the big game. Both really struggled last week, but one game is one game, and a season is a longer deal. A couple AFC teams that will give the Colts a run, the Ravens and Patriots could sneak in as well. It could also be magic for Denver, but I’m not quite buying that yet. Those are my favorites!

David from Minnesota writes, “If I had to pick up a WR who would be the best pickup? Crabtree or Lance Moore and why? It sounds like Crabtree will be starting. Will he make any type of impact?”

Tough call, everyone in New Orleans seems like a crap shoot every week because they are all open and Drew doesn’t seem to have a favorite, but I think lance had the 2nd most amount of targets with 7, and last year he certainly was Drew’s favorite guy to go to. But Crabtree has soooo much talent, and the 49ers seem determined to use him. I’m personally stunned that a Mike Singletary team would start Crabtree right out of the gate, unless he’s been dominating at practice, in which case he’s worth a look. I think both these guys are solid pick-ups. Lance is in a group of productive receivers while Crabtree is in a run first offense and has been out of football for a while, both have their downsides. I think Lance is the safe pick, Crabtree is the wildcard. I imagine Lance will end up with more fantasy points from now until the end of the season. But it will likely be close.

Tim Lynch says, “Papa, This year we allow return men to get the yards and touchdowns. There are two on the waiver wire this week. I have a spot for one of them, Which should I pick up? Domenik Hixon (They are playing Arizona: should be a lot of opportunities) or Sammie Straughter (They are playing NE and should also get a lot of opportunities. Thanks for the help!”

Tim, I think both guys are great options, but Sammie Stroughter just took the job in Tampa, and I know they will be allowing lots of scores all year long. I’m not sure that the job is his to keep, but I think they like his speed in the open field, so I imagine he’ll stay there. I think the Giants will allow a lot less scores than the Bucs, obviously, so Hixon won’t get as many returns as the season goes forward, but this week, Arizona might be able to put some points on the board and give Hixon chances. But you might want to take into account Niel Rackers, he is one of the top Touch back kickers in the league, booming 9 into the end zone already this season on just 24 attempts. Then again, Stephen Gostkowski has 10 touch backs, but on 13 more kick offs attempts. Tough call for sure. I think the Patriots end up kicking off about 7-10 times, and that would have me give the nod to Stroughter. But in both situations there’s upside. I just think Sammie gets more looks as the season goes forward. Plus, I’ve always thought a lot of the guys since he was a youngster at Oregon State. Thanks for the email.

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Mark B from San Antonio, Texas asks, “I’m being asked for a trade for either Gore or Forte straight up for Steve Smith (CAR). I’ve been starting Knox because players receive return yards in our league and scores double digits for me. The other WR slot I haven’t settled on, and then I run 3 backs. My RBs and WRs are as follows: Forte, Slaton, Ray Rice, Mendenhall, Frank Gore, Jonathan Stewart – Braylon Edwards, Vincent Jackson, Johnny Knox, and Eddie Royal. Should I take this trade in hopes for a bigger outing from Smith later this season? Thanks for your help on this.”

Boy, you have some great running back options – Gore, Mend, Ray, and Forte, and then Jonathan Stewart just in case, gotta love that group, and yes, that leaves you room to make a trade for a solid receiver. While I absolutely love Steve Smith’s game, it seems like the Panthers and mostly Jake Delhomme, don’t have the ability to use Steve. I think Knox is a solid option in return yardage leagues – he gets catches as a receiver, makes big plays, and that extra 100 or so yardage from kick returns is nice too. I would not trade Gore for Steve Smith. Gore is an awesome back that IS his team’s offense. Keep holding on to him. Forte, I don’t know, he’s a tough gamble – he’s been bad to start the year, his value seems to be gone, and maybe him for Steve would be a decent trade -but I feel like you might be able to trade for a better receiving option with one of those backs. I like Steve, one of my favorite players in the game, but questions abound in that passing game. I would probably pass on this trade, but Forte for Smith has possible upside for you, definitely, just a little bit too much risk for something that seems all but sure. With Eddie Royal getting some kick return duties for the Broncos, you have yet another option, a starting receiver that also gets those precious kick return yardage. I think you’re okay at WR, and am not sure how much SS would upgrade you right now. If Joe Montana signs with Carolina, then Steve’s value might go up….
Papa

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6 Fantasy Football Advice Part 2

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As promised, the questions keep coming in (and I’m still kicking) so I’ll share them with the rest of you. As always, you can email any football questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – working hard to dream big! Hope these tidbits help!

David wonders, “Would you rather have Mario Manningham or Anthony Gonzalez?”

I’d rather have Anthony Gonzalez, and it’s not only because I thought he was going to be a good player prior to the season – but that has something to do with it. I’m a firm believer that you need to have good reason to lose interest or belief in a player you expected big things from in any given year. Giving up on a guy because he was injured doesn’t seem to be right. Gonzo went down early, and since then every time I see Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie put up big numbers, I think to myself how right I could be about Gonzo if the injury bug didn’t whack him on the head. I like Manningham, don’t get me wrong, the kid is fast, runs good routes, is tough to tackle, and gets the ball – but I believe he’ll get fewer catches with Hakeem Nicks becoming more and more a part of the Giants offense. Gonzalez has a chance to be a decent #2 receiver, where I don’t think Manningham will be a consistent WR this season, and is probably no better than a #3 or Flex. When you’re making a play on a guy, go for upside, and I think Anthony has that. Long answer shortened, I’d rather have Gonzo.

Stuck in a Trailer writes, “Here’s a question for you-  should I dump Glen Coffee he has a bye week and then Gore returns,  I could pick up TE for my TE bye week or a decently dropped Def  or some receiver or RB who might be on the waiver wire worth picking up, Thoughts?”

Yeah, I think that’s a good move. Unless you’re hurting for RB options, I think Coffee isn’t a must have. It was said to me that Gore actually wanted to play last week, not sure what that means, but what it says to me is he’ll definitely be back when football moves forward for the 49ers, and Coffee hasn’t set the world on fire. Coffee is solid, but if you can pick up a player that will help you in the future, I think dropping him is a good move. Especially if you get a pretty good guy that somebody had to drop to fill a bye week spot. It’s always tough to drop players that have been consistent for you, but sometimes that’s the best move.

Isaac Melgoza from Santa Ana California first thanked me for giving him Chris Johnson last season, told me he digs the site, gave me his team, receivers and running backs (Burleson, Berrian, Boldin, Sims-Walker, Maningham and LT, Steven Jackson, Jerome Harrison, Glen Coffee) and his league scoring settings (We start 2 RBs and 3 WRs. 2 points for 25 yards rushing or receiving, 10 points for every TD, 20 points for a TD of 50 or more) and asked me, “Would you trade LT, Sims-Walker, and Manningham for AP and Steve Smith (Carolina)? Would you still do the deal if it was Derrick Mason and another receiver plus AP for those three guys? Am I giving up too much? Would you counter offer? Thanks for the help!”

Isaac, thanks for the question, and I’m glad you benefited from Chris last season. You know, it’s crazy, a ton of people have written in for the first time this season starting off by thanking me for Chris Johnson, pretty funny. Gotta love it. I assume next year new readers will write in thanking me for nothing with Anthony Gonzalez and Eddie Royal, haha, but they still have time to prove me right! Hope you keep enjoying the site!

As for the trade, I think Sims Walker, Manningham, and LT for AP and Steve Smith would be a huge win for you. Even Derrick Mason wouldn’t be too shabby, he’s, at the very least, a very consistent guy. But he never catches a lot of touchdowns, so in a league like yours he’s not too great. I like Sims Walker a lot, but he’s not an upgrade over Steve Smith, in my opinion. Sure, through 5 weeks he has more points, and he’s been great in games as a starter, but Steve Smith, shoot, we’re talking about one of the baddest receivers in the league. He has 40+ targets through 4 games, and soon enough that will result in big point totals. LT should be decent the rest of the season, but he definitely looks like he’s trying too hard, and he’s no Adrian Peterson at this point in his career. AP hasn’t been great besides week 1, either, but I like his upside. He should actually be better against teams that keep the game close, because the Vikings won’t ride him hard if they don’t need to, obviously they are trying to keep him healthy. I think a line-up of McNabb, A MF’in P, Steven Jackson, Boldin, Burelson, Steve Smith or D. Mason, with some solid upside back-up WRs like you have is a good move. I’d keep Flacco, he’s a great back-up, especially with McNabb and his injury question marks over the years. You starting line-up should contend for a championship. Don’t get me wrong, your team is solid as is, but AP is a huge upgrade at a position where you haven’t gotten great production thus far. Go for it! Thanks again for the write-in, love to give you my answers anytime.

Miguel explains his situation and asks, “I need some fantasy help from a guru! I am in a PPR league where we start 2 QBs, 3 WRs, 2 RBs, and a TE for our main offense.Rogers, Henne, and Edwards as my QBs – TO, Berrian, Burleson, Boldin, and Massaqoui for WR – Slaton, Jacobs, Chester Taylor, and LeSean McCoy at RB – Shockey and Heap at TE.  I was offered a trade of Favre and LT in exchange for Rogers and Berrian. Is this something I should jump on? Byes might be a problem as LT and Slaton are gone in Week 10… “

Miguel, I would stick with Rogers and Berrian I think, Rogers is an elite passer, and should have huge games. Brett will be decent, but I think that Minnesota offense will continue to rely heavily on the run game, and getting rid of Rogers is a very tough deal. Burleson and Boldin are elite receivers this season, both will continue to get high targets, and I expect Boldin to be even better as the season moves forward. So you’re pretty good there. And depending on match-up, TO, Berrian, and Massaquoi are nice 3rd WR options.

The problem with the trade is that I don’t think it makes either position better, and if you’re not improving somewhere, why make a deal, right? If you only start 2 running backs, I think Jacobs and Slaton should be solid as the season goes forward, I hardly expect Jacobs to continue his low yard per carry output, he should get better. Slaton will continue to be a solid play as the season goes forward, good PPR guy and a solid runner. LT is decent, but he will share carries and has had a tough time with aches and pains of late. I would rank Jacobs and Slaton ahead of LT from now until the end of the season. And obviously I would rank Rogers higher than Favre. LT would give you depth, but with Chester Taylor and McCoy, you have two upside guys that could produce in a crunch. Keep your stud QB, who has even more value in a 2 QB league, and I think your team would be better off. The byes are a tough deal, but by week 10 you might have a starting RB in McCoy, and maybe even some numbers form Chester, or you could find a back-up for an injured starter somewhere along the line. Don’t worry about byes quite yet. Hope that helps!

Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Football Analysis Week 5

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Week 4 was historic, it was the first week that I didn’t finish first in overall fantasy rankings, a little competition we have here at LuckyLester.com. For those of you that don’t know, the staff gets together their fantasy rankings for the week, and in the Fantasy Focus review everybody gets graded based on their picks. I won the first 3 weeks before getting ousted by my chubby and generally crazy uncle. I haven’t heard the end of it since he knew he took home the gold. But hey, I still finished tied for “next” with Red Red Ryan, yet another guy that keeps telling me he’s just as good as me. It’s a tough crowd, you fall a step back one week and now you’re not the best. We’ll see… This week we have four more teams on bye, Bears, Packers, Saints, Chargers – so don’t get caught with any of those circus-squads in your starting lineup. Dream big in Week 5, almost 1/3 of the way through the fantasy season. Craziness…

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – Come on, free money, against the Titans D, he should be even better than normal.
2. Adrian Peterson – I liked him last week against the Packers, and while he didn’t do well, I won’t hesitate against STL.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – This cat is physical, ask Frank Gore what physical runners do to Seattle…
4. Matt Schaub – The Cardinals are really good against the run, good enough to score a lot, thus Matt will have a day.
5. Reggie Wayne – I can’t get enough of Reggie, he’s such a sure thing, and I expect him to do bad things to Tennessee.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Julius Jones– Julius and the Hawks were brutal last week, but against Jax’s defense, I like his upside.
2. Santana Moss – If Carolina knows what’s good for them, they’ll stack the line. That should open a few up for Moss.
3. Tim Hightower– I’d say Tim was picked in the low rounds, but he’s not full sleeper. Against Houston he could score twice.
4. Carson Palmer – I like Carson again, even against a good Ravens D – there’s room to pass in that secondary.
5. Hines Ward –Hines, like Carson, finds himself on this list for the 2nd straight week. He didn’t let me down last time.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Tashard Choice – He might be a back-up again, but if Dallas is up early, why waste Marion? They won’t, Choice gets 20 totes.
2. Jerome Harrison – I’ve always loved his vision; thought he’d do big things with lots of carries; he’ll get them again this week.
3. Mohamed Massaquoi –He’s the #1 in Cleveland now, and Derek Anderson likes him. A good play this week.
4. Steve Breaston– You can probably pick up breast in most leagues; he could be huge against Houston.
5. Eddie Royal – I have to go to this well one more week, he’s as talented as little guys come, could be huge!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Ray Rice – I would sit Rice this week, I think Cincinnati really shuts him down in Week 5.
2. Steven Jackson – Minnesota, ick. I’d rather start Mendenhall, Hightower, or Julius Jones.
3. Matt Ryan – I’d look for a better option than San Francisco’s solid defense coming off two weeks of prep.
4. Roddy White –If I don’t like Matty Ice, I really don’t like Roddy going against Nate Clements all day long.
5. Larry Johnson – Get ready for less than 3 yards per rush against Dallas.

PS – Bye weeks are back, and here for some time, recognize! Mind the gap!

Week 5 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

Ryan Kauffman	        Josh Arsenault		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning   	1.Peyton Manning	1.Matt Schaub   	1.Peyton Manning
2.Kurt Warner   	2.Tom Brady     	2.Kurt Warner     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Ben Roethlisberger 	3.Donovan McNabb     	3.Tony Romo     	3.Donovan McNabb
4.Joe Flacco     	4.Matt Schaub     	4.Peyton Manning 	4.Carson Palmer
5.Tom Brady     	5.David Garrard    	5.Donovan McNabb	5.Kurt Warner
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson
2.Chris Johnson 	2.Brandon Jacobs  	2.Rashard Mendenhall  	2.Maurice Jones-Drew
3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.DeAngelo Williams  	3.Chris Johnson 	3.Brandon Jacobs
4.DeAngelo Williams	4.Clinton Portis    	4.Brian Westbrook 	4.Rashard Mendenhall
5.Brandon Jacobs 	5.Rashard Mendenhall   	5.Glen Coffee   	5.Tim Hightower

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Reggie Wayne	        1.Reggie Wayne          1.T.J. Housmandzadeh 	1.Reggie Wayne
2.Andre Johnson 	2.Andre Johnson   	2.Reggie Wayne		2.DeSean Jackson
3.Larry Fitzgerald  	3.Anquan Boldin 	3.Larry Fitzgerald   	3.Anquan Boldin
4.Derrick Mason    	4.Brandon Marshall 	4.Andre Johnson 	4.Chad Ochocinco
5.Hines Ward    	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Mike Sims-Walker	5.Andre Johnson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Jason Witten		2.Tony Gonzalez 	2.Chris Cooley
3.Chris Cooley		3.Tony Gonzalez		3.Vernon Davis  	3.Owen Daniels
4.John Carlson   	4.Brent Celek   	4.Chris Cooley		4.Tony Gonzalez
5.Vernon Davis  	5.Vernon Davis   	5.Dustin Keller 	5.Jason Witten

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Vikings		1.Vikings		1.Giants		1.Giants
2.Steelers		2.Giants        	2.Vikings		2.Vikings
3.Giants 		3.Eagles 		3.Eagles		3.Jets
4.Jets   		4.Cowboys  		4.Ravens		4.Eagles
5.Patriots		5.Jets  		5.Steelers		5.Steelers

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Laces out, just like our kickers, out of the rankings! When the toe kick returns, we're back in!

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 3

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Week 3 fantasy football is upon us, and here we are, dancing around some tough plays this coming weekend. The match-ups are in, the staff has been polled, and we have all the predicted rankings heading into Week 3. I’ve taken the top spot (Lucky Lester) each of the first two weeks, but it’s close, and I know I have some guys out to take my crown. Once again, I’ve listed my 4 levels of plays, elites, solids, sleepers, and no-nos, I hope they help. Josh, Papa, Red Red Ryan, and I have our rankings further down the page. I hope you enjoy it all!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – I don’t think the Texans can stop MJD, ala Chris Johnson last week.
2. Andre Johnson – That being said, I’m not so sure the Jaguars can stop the Texans either, I’ll take AJ.
3. Drew Brees – He has to come back to earth one of these days, dude can’t throw 72 touchdowns. Not this week.
4. Matt Schaub – Two weeks in a row at the top? You bet.
5. Brandon Jacobs – It’s been a slow start for the beast, enter the Buccaneers as unlucky opponent in Week 3.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Ray Rice– I think Ray will be the top scoring back on the Ravens team this week against Cleveland.
2. Ryan Grant – The Packers haven’t been dedicated to the run this year, I think that changes this week.
3. Larry Johnson– Questions surrounding Larry, I think he has a nice game this week.
4. Dwayne Bowe – Big nasty receiver going against the Eagles, and I think KC will be down – I like this pick.
5. Braylon Edwards – Drop a couple, catch a couple, he’ll have plenty of opportunities down early.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Mario Manningham – Yeah, I like what I saw, me and every other guy.
2. David Garrard – I’d take him a lot of weeks, should be real good against Houston.
3. Trent Edwards –Both teams should have lots of snaps and score lots of points. Even in a loss I like Trent.
4.Fred Jackson– If he’s a beast one more week, does he keep the starting job when Lynch comes back?
5. Jabar Gaffney – The Raiders will take away the top guys, but Gaffney should find room. Good sleeper pick.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai – The Cardinals are very tough against the run, shutting down two studs in Gore and MJD.
2. Cedric Benson – His style versus the Steelers is not a good match-up for his fantasy owners.
3. Willie Parker – I don’t know if Willie will have too many more big games, the Bengals are tough on the run.
4. Bernard Berrien – Is he even the #1 receiver anymore, either way, Nate Clements should shut him down.
5. Chris Johnson – Can you sit this guy? Probably not, but if you have other options I’d suggest it.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault	        Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Peyton Manning	1.Drew Brees
2.Tom Brady     	2.Aaron Rodgers 	2.Tom Brady     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Phillip Rivers 	3.Matt Schaub     	3.Drew Brees     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Aaron Rodgers   	4.Peyton Manning	4.David Garrard 	4.Tony Romo
5.Carson Palmer  	5.Trent Edwards 	5.Aaron Rodgers		5.Tom Brady
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Michael Turner	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew
2.Maurice Jones-Drew	2.Brandon Jacobs	2.Steve Slaton  	2.Brandon Jacobs
3.Adrian Peterson	3.Ronnie Brown  	3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Matt Forte		4.Matt Forte    	4.Fred Jackson  	4.Matt Forte
5.Clinton Portis	5.Steven Jackson	5.Clinton Portis  	5.Ryan Grant

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Randy Moss		1.Andre Johnson   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Andre Johnson
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne  	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Randy Moss
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith (NYG)    	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Greg Jennings		4.Andre Johnson 	4.Steve Smith (CAR)
5.Steve Smith (CAR)  	5.Santonio Holmes	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Jericho Cotchery

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Chris Cooley  	1.Jeremy Shockey	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Antonio Gates
2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.John Carlson  	2.Dallas Clark
3.John Carlson		3.Dustin Keller		3.Tony Gonzalez 	3.Jason Witten
4.Antonio Gates 	4.Dallas Clark  	4.Owen Daniels		4.Chris Cooley
5.Jason Witten   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Tony Gonzalez

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Bears 		1.Ravens
2.Redskins		2.Broncos       	2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Packers		3.Giants		3.Eagles		3.Broncos
4.Broncos		4.Bears  		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Vikings		5.Redskins		5.Redskins		5.Eagles

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 2

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I’m back with my big belly, my bigger brain, and my even bigger… umm…. feet. My feet are huge for being a relatively short guy, size 12.5, that’s pretty big. What I hate more than anything is trying to jam into a 12 or flopping around like a clown in a 13. Plus, only a few shoes have 12.5 – regardless, I’ve found another thing to be angry about, and I’m going to talk about it now. Deciding to go receiver happy in one of my drafts has gotten me no where, and it’s not because my running backs have disappointed. I snagged Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez and look where that’s gotten me – no wins, one loss, damn! Lucky tries to tell me to hold tight, relax, you’ll be fine, but I can’t help but hate the fact that I got expensive receivers when I would have been happy as can be with guys like Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, Wes Welker, and Devin Hester… Okay, damn, I’m sick of complaining – damn receivers! lets answer some questions…

Cozmo in San Antonio asks, “Should I sell Adrian Peterson now or wait until Detroit? I have some holes at receiver and I’m pretty sure I could get Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Eddie Royal for AP all by himself. What should I do? Can I really live with myself trading AP?”

Honestly, I would probably make that trade, but I’m a value whore, and certainly think all three of those guys will have solid seasons. All three have very low value after week 1 (because of their low output to start the year), and right now nobody’s value is higher than APs. However, it probably depends on the rest of your roster. There’s no point to upgrade a little and end up dropping solid guys in the process. If you have decent receivers, you might want to stand pat with AP, he looks like a 2000 yard back, and there’s no doubt that kind of production will keep you in games. But if you do have a hole, like you say, AJ and CJ and a guy like Royal looks pretty good. As always, see if you can get more somewhere else. I’m not sure you could get too much more than that, but shoot, it doesn’t hurt to try. AP might have even more value after running into Detroit this next week, but then again, I’m not sure he could have more value than 180 yards and 3 scores…

Dennis in Alaska says, “Last week you told me I should start Eddie Royal over Hines Ward, what gives?”

That being said, I also told you to start Julius Jones over Chris Johnson, which would have made up for that Royal over Ward advice. I still think Royal will have a huge year, and would probably start him over Ward again, despite their Week 1 totals. You can’t get angry at the single piece of poor advice that I give you when I feed you good stuff until you’re belly limits the vision when you pee. You have to understand, this is sport, these guys can surprise even the best fantasy minds – but I’m guessing you didn’t start Julius over Chris, or you probably wouldn’t have written in with frustration.

Dennis in Alaska replies, “Touche. I listened to the bad advice and left the good advice on my bench. It would have been about even had I listened to both. Well played. Thanks for the free advice. On that note, do you start Chris, Julius, Thomas Jones, or Tim Hightower this week? I need two.

No problem, my  man, just doing work. I would start Chris against Houston, he should blow them up. I would leave Julius on the bench this week, the Niners are tough against the run, and he won’t catch too many balls out of the backfield. I would probably go with Thomas against the Patriots. I don’t think the Pats will be great against the run with Seymour in Oakland, and Mayo on the bench. TJ should get plenty of carries this weekend. Tim put up good numbers, but I bet he never catches that many passes again, plus Beanie looked like the better runner, and I imagine he’ll take carries away from Tim a little this week against a mediocre Jags defensive front. I still think Hightower is a solid play, I just like Jones more. Good luck, hopefully I get them both right this week!

Do I trade Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Ward for Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Ward is my #4 running back behind Maurice Jones Drew, Kevin Smith, and Clinton Portis and ahead of Jamal Lewis. Boldin would be my highest ranked receiver in front of Houshmandzadeh, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez. Deal or no deal?

Deal. I think Boldin will be a beast starting in probably Week 3, he might be a so-so play while healing from his hammy injury – however, it could also linger. I think it’s a good low risk play by you because when healthy Boldin is a Top 10 guy easily, and it’s not like Warner is a much lower play than Rodgers. You get some big upside while losing a time share running back and for this season probably lose nothing at quarterback. Kurt played poorly in Week 1, but I doubt that continues as long as he stays on the field. It’s not like Aaron Rogers has been the beacon of health in his career either. Take a chance, good upside for you there.

I’m out of here to write some receiver hate mail to all those fantasy guys that advised me to go WR late in the first round…. blast them!!!