Ask Papa Weimer: Week 15 Fantasy Football Analysis

Here’s a couple of the consistent questions (with the answers) coming in from you guys, hope this helps for the big playoff push. Don’t second guess yourself, like old people like me do, just go with your gut, it feels better if you lose going out with your best guys. Nothing like benching a guy you started all year and losing because of it. You dig?Remember, you too can write in and get your questions answered to…. papaweimer50@hotmail.com – will answer as soon as possible! – Good luck all!

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David from Minnesota asks, “Papa, I need some info on to to start besides Chris Johnson. I have Chris Jennings, Arian Foster, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson  I need to start two of them. Which guys would you play with Chris?”

I think Fred Jackson is always a good play because he’s so involved with that team, passing game, running game, even return game – so I like him as your 2nd guy. As for the 3rd guy, it’s hard not to start Ryan Grant, because he’s a beast and he’s had pretty good ypc numbers against good defenses, but the Packers aren’t going to run into a wall, so that leaves room for another guy, and from what I hear, the Rams are coming down with swine flu like it’s free and fun, and so Foster might be a good option. Before I heard that, I would have chosen Jennings over Foster, because I like the way Chris runs, but with the epidemic hitting the Ram-rods, that’s a tough call. I feel like those guys are pretty even. But I would probably go with Ryan Grant – in fact – I am going with Ryan Grant. I have a choice between him and Jennings in a league, and Grant is the guy I chose. The Steelers have given up more than 4 yards per carry to starting running backs over the past 4 weeks, and that’s good enough for me – maybe Grant gets 15-20 carries, and if he’s lucky, a touchdown. But if you went with Foster or Jennings, I would definitely understand – I mean, Jennings carried the ball 20 times last week for 73 yards and a TD, and he looked good. Foster is going against the Rams. Both him and Jennings have good match-ups. It’s a tough call, definitely – that’s what I’m thinking, hope that helped a little.

Stanleigh writes, “Ok, I’m struggling with my final decision on RB2. What can I say? I don’t want to make a mistake on selecting the right guy between Forsett, Foster and Jennings as one of them will most certainly produce RB1 type numbers. Any advice?”

Yep – and here’s the deal, no matter what I tell you, the bottom line is these three guys are all good/tough/questionable/could be impressive options this week. I like Forsett against Tampa Bay – they suck on the ground and he’s the best offensive player on a team playing without Burleson, and Housh is recovering from a head injury. At the very least, that means there should be some touches in the cards for him in the passing game, hasselcrack has to throw the ball to someone.

But Foster and Jennings are also good plays. Jennings plays a terrible run defense, and he has passed my eye test. That means I’ve watched him run, on plays for gain and loss, and he looks like a powerful back running with some momentum.

Foster, I don’t know much about, but his match-up is also dreamy. It’s a tough call. I say Forsett, but like I said to start, you have three options that are close enough to coin toss odds than one better than the other – if it’s a PPR league, I say Forsett gets even better – but if it’s just yards and touchdowns, one of the other two guys are just as likely to succeed. The way I see it, there’s no way Forsett gets shut out – so I’d go with him.

Fantasy Focus: Week 15 Fantasy Football Preview

This is the 2nd Week of Fantasy Playoffs in some leagues, the first in others, regardless, who to play is a big deal. Last week Josh finished atop the charts for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks, or something like that, and his picks have been on fire lately. I finished second, as some tough defensive picks and a goose egg from quarterbacks had the poo-fan pointed in my direction. Ryan and Papa are both trying to pick up some winners as the last few weeks wrap up, and you better believe I’ll be trying to hold onto the overall title. Doing work. This week I have some solid sleepers ready to wake up and give you a playoff win if you need some help, as I’ve placed an extra five guys in my “super sleeper” realm – guys that are waiver wire fodder right now, ready to spring into starter action for draft pick duds. It’s playoffs, nobody’s feelings will be hurt, just play the best guys out there! Here goes many things….

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Wes Welker – Defenses can focus in on Randy, that’s fine, but Wes had 12 catches against Buffalo earlier this year, he will have a teen count this week.
2. Ray Rice –  I have to stick with Ray Rice, the Bears can’t keep up with the main man in Baltimore.
3. Adrian Peterson – Carolina’s pass D is actually decent, their run D, well, you’ll see.
4. Drew Brees – You know Drew has that fire wanting a win over Dallas, and you know he’s going to make that secondary cry.
5. Chris Johnson – I will not take CJ off this list, he’s a must play, at the top of the world right now.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson – Despite last week’s lockdown on Arizona, the 49ers secondary has some holes, DeSean will find them.
2. Jamal Charles – The kid is lightening quick, and given 20 touches, he’s as good as gold in this match-up.
3. Thomas Jones – I like Thomas a lot again, his match-up is just too good, and he’ll get his carries.
4. Cedric Benson –The Chargers can give up some yards on the ground, and I feel a 120+ yard day coming for Benson.
5. Brandon Jacobs – I like his style, and his punishing runs look to be back. Albert might be out, look for 18-20 carries and yards to match.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –Again, he’s the best back in Seattle, again, he’ll have the most fantasy points amongst them, and Tampa, nice match-up.
2. Quentin Ganther – The Giants D front doesn’t scare me like they used to, the Redskins O scares me more than ever. Deal.
3. Vince Young– I like him again, if he’s still out there, he’s a nice spot start for a 2nd straight week.
4. Laurence Maroney– LM has been consistent, at the very least, for the Patriots – I think he runs a lot again in Week 15.
5. Alex Smith– The thought of the Eagles secondary says no, but don’t get tricked, if you don’t have a top guy, need a starter, Smith is a solid play.
6. Steve Breaston – He might be on the Waivers after a few pooformances, but Larry Fitz might be out, and the match-up is good, I like starting Ta-Tas this week.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Brady Quinn – Everyone is saying no, the Chiefs D beat up the Bills passing attack last week, and Brady threw for under 100 yards – so what, I like the match-up. If you need him, don’t feel like you’re going to die. At least double digit fantasy points from Quinn.
2. Chris Jennings – He might not be on the waiver, but I picked him up in a couple leagues, so he’s out there in most. He plays the Chiefs D and looks like a solid option if you have nothing else.
3. Maurice Morris – He could very well be in for starter carries, and some grabs out of the backfield as well, you could do worse than MoMo.
4. Devin Aromashodu – Let me say this, Jay Cutler has been lobbying for him getting more playing time for weeks, he finally gets it and puts up 21 fantasy points. Like it.
5. Greg Camarillo – Last week’s performance isn’t that crazy, and while I don’t see 100 yards, 5+ catches and 50+ yards seems likely against the Titans.
6. Deon Butler – Call me crazy, and this would be a tough start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it worked out. Burleson is out, and while Branch is #3, Butler is the big play guy left – I think he has a couple this week and has his best fantasy week of the year.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Hines Ward– Great player, struggling team, tough D, tough start in my opinion.
2. Mario Manningham– After a great start, MM is back-up duty, and against one of the best secondaries in the league, not a good start.
3. Matt Forte – Weird, Matt’s here again, I think he’ll do more blocking than running against the Ravens.
4. LeSean McCoy –I like the rookie a lot, I just think the Niners shut him down, and the Eagles find quicker ways to gain yardage.
5. Kyle Orton– I like the Broncos to win, yes, but pass a lot? no. Orton might get close to 200 yards, but I doubt he gets over that mark. More than a touchdown through the air? No – sit him.

***Nate Burleson is out. Turner is still a bit risky. Don’t start JaMarcus Russell unless you are throwing your playoff game, and if you are starting Charlie “Brown” Frye, I’m sorry for your mixed luck, nothing like getting to the playoffs and having to start a peanuts character***

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