Monthly Archives: October 2007

Free College Football Picks Week 10 – 2007

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Week 9 wasn’t as nice as week 8, but after a couple very bad beats, I broke out with a couple wins in 5 chances anyway. This week, I’m rolling with the underdog in 4 out of 5, and I think my might will be just right. College Football is a crazy thing, like Robin Williams and Martin Lawrence combined into one. Check out my free picks, I think you’ll make a buck or two.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 10

Wisconsin Badgers (+16) @ Ohio State Buckeyes:
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

Don’t look at the Buckeye-Nittany Lion score and just think, “well, this game has to be a blowout, too” – that’s not how college football works. Wisconsin is playing well right now, and will look to get back in the hunt by beating numero uno on Saturday. I don’t think it will happen, but 16 points is too many to give the Badgers in this big time Big 10 showdown.

Ball State Cardinals @ Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

After losing 3 straight to Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin, you can be the Hoosiers will be happy to see a non-powerhouse coming into their home stadium. If the Hoosiers had won last week, I’d think a let down was in order, but after 3 straight losses, this Hoosier team that is pretty solid, will be looking for a big win here. Unfortunately for Ball State, that’s coming down on them.

Purdue Boilermakers (+7) @ Penn State Nittany Lions:
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, I think last weeks big loss will have them down in the dumps, and they’ll be looking at this game like, “at least we don’t have to play the Buckeyes this week” and that’s no good when you’re taking on Purdue. The Boilermakers are better than people give them credit for. At 7-2, Purdue’s only losses have come to Michigan and Ohio State. These two teams are actually very similar in skill, just at different spots. Penn State has won 8 of the last 10 against the Boilermakers, but I see Purdue winning outright in Happy Valley, just to turn that stat around a little bit. Penn State just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to pass with the Boilermakers. If Purdue’s quick defensive front 7 can stop Penn State’s rushing attack, this game will be a blowout of the home team.

Navy Midshipmen (+3.5) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish:
(Line: Tuesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Like I said earlier, unless Duke is in town, the Irish shouldn’t be a favorite against anyone, especially a team as disciplined and mistake free as the Midshipmen. What will Notre Dame capitalize on? Nothing. I don’t think the Irish can put together multiple scoring drives, and thus it’ll be tough to beat anyone. Even Duke.

Maryland Terrapins (+3) @ North Carolina Tar Heels:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: BodogLife)

The Terps are much better than the Tar Heels. This North Carolina team played pretty damn tough to start the year, but they have been fading into the team they are more comfortable with, a team that struggles from the get go. I like the Terps to win this game outright, and while it might be a close game early on, I just don’t thin the Tar Heels will have the willpower to step up when they get punched in the mouth – heck, it’s basketball season soon, isn’t it?

Week 8 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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A HUGE WEEK for Lucky Lester… Talk about bringing in the big bucks. After a slow start to the season, I pulled off a killer Week 8 and I’m feeling good going into Week 9. The double digits always seem to do me well. Anyway, how good was I? 6-1 with my free picks and 7-1 with my elite package. That’s a lot of wins and a couple losses. Check out my free pick review below.

Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (+3): Loss (only one)
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Steven Jackson’s injury seemed to crush the Rams, as the threat of running the ball was all but gone, and the Browns focused in on allowing nothing on the ground. St. Louis spent much of the game on top, but couldn’t pull it out, losing a close one by a touchdown.

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Chicago Bears: WINNER
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

“A straight up win by the Lions wouldn’t surprise me.” There were lots of things I liked about this game, the way the Lions were playing defense coming in, the confidence they had, and the lack of it in Chicago – and the way the Lions had been asserting themselves on the ground. It all worked out, and the Lions made the Bears and Brian Greise look bad in my first win of the good Sunday.

Oakland Raiders (+9) @ Tennessee Titans: WINNER
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: 5Dimes)

This deal was too good to pass up, and the Raiders almost had this one anyway. Oakland plays in their fair share of close games, as do the Titans, the difference is, Vince and his Titans find ways to win, while the Raiders are the Raiders… They were good enough to get me a win though, that’s always appreciated.

Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers (-10): WINNER
(Line: Monday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

This was a killing. I thought the Texans would be a little better through the air, but instead, they gave away points when they tried to pass. They didn’t run the ball all that well either, and the game was over at half time. Another win for Ole Lucky.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: WINNER
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Belmont)

“The Saints have dug themselves a hole deep enough that they can’t walk into any game thinking they can skate and win.” I don’t know what New Orleans was doing to start the season, but they looked pretty good against a decent 49ers secondary. The entire San Francisco team looks to be going through the motions, which is killing 49er fans and from the looks of it, Frank Gore as well. I do know that Colston is back doing what he does best, jumping over people’s heads and catching touchdowns. Got me a good win.

Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots (-16): WINNER
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

“I think the Redskins have the best defense the Patriots have faced thus far, but that doesn’t mean they will have trouble scoring. New England has made it look easy this season, and while this game might have a few more twists and turns, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots held the Redskins to 7-10 points. That means the Patriots would have to score 27 points to surely cover, something I think is very possible, especially with such a young quarterback running the show for the Redskins. New England’s defense is so tactical that they always seem to take the strongest part of opposing offenses out of their game. That means the Redskins’ rushing attack will have to go through walls to succeed. That puts a lot of pressure on Campbell. Yes, the Patriots are this good.” I called it, didn’t I? Well, from what I’ve seen so far, the Patriots receivers are wide open against bad defenses and just regular open against good defenses. This team is a machine, and stop the talk about running up the score, or they have it coming to them – they play football, they play it hard, they play it for 60 minutes – why do people always have to find something to get pissed about. Brady crushed, the defense destroyed the Redskins’ rushing attack, and Jason Campbell was pressured into too many mistakes. This game wasn’t ever close.

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers: WINNER
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

Another win for a great team, weird. This one was easy. The Colts are very good and the Panthers were way overrated. Even as touchdown dogs, the Panthers rarely play well at home, and they had Grandfather time playing quarterback. That’s no way to win games in the NFL, and if you bet on the Panthers, you didn’t do your homework. This was one of my top 2 bets of the week in my elite package. I hope you rocked it this week! My 6-1 Free Picks felt very nice.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 8

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I need a big winner this week – but I have to ride the way I’ve been capping the last 3 seasons, because that’s how I know best, and that’s how I win. Check out my games this week, and if you want my elite half, check out my elite picks.

Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (+3):
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Browns aren’t as good as their 3-3 record insists, and the Rams, while they’ve played more than their fair share of terrible football, I think their make-shift offensive line will play pretty well against a browns defense that knows how to give up lots of points. Cleveland won’t be able to run against the Rams, a very underrated run defense, and thus they’ll have to pass the ball to put up points. I know Derek Anderson has had a hell of a year thus far, but I think he slips this week. It’s always interesting to see how an underdog team finally plays when they’re favored. I think the browns will slip up.

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I think the Lions are too offensive for the Bears. Detroit has struggled offensively the last few games, and I think that’s an aberration, and that they’ll step it up against the Bears. The Lions are oddly confident this season, and I kind of like that. I think that’s what the Bears had over the NFC North over the last year, but now, every team in that division knows they can beat the Bears, and that means trouble for a Chicago team that can’t run the football. A straight up win by the Lions wouldn’t surprise me.

Oakland Raiders (+9) @ Tennessee Titans:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: 5Dimes)

5Dimes has this offer on the table, and I just can’t pass it up. I probably would think about taking the Titans at 7 or less, but 7.5 seems like a lot in a game with two teams that are pretty similar. Both offenses are very one-dimensional, and while the Titans have the better defense by far, the Raiders have enough talent in the secondary to play 8 guys in the box, making running room tough to find for LenDale White. Vince Young is a spread killer, so don’t say I didn’t warn you, but I like the Raiders to cover the 9 point spread in this one.

Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers (-10):
(Line: Monday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I’m not sure how this line will change, or what will happen to my bet at the beginning of the week, but on Monday this game put the Chargers in as a 10 point favorite, something I like against a defense that probably won’t be able to slow down LaDainian Tomlinson. LT looks to be back at his best, and the Texans secondary isn’t strong enough to make Rivers fit the ball into tight spots. The addition of Chris Chambers will open up the field for Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and LT – that being said, be careful with this game, the fires around the San Diego area could effect where this game is played, and where the minds of Chargers’ players are at.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Belmont)

I don’t like the Saints, I just like the 49ers less. The Saints have dug themselves a hole deep enough that they can’t walk into any game thinking they can skate and win. So, they’ll come in and fight the 49ers long and hard, and win by 3-7 points as the game will come down to the last drive. But if that’s the case, I like Drew Brees to find himself again, Reggie Bush to make a big play, or Marques Colston to snap out of his sophomore funk. I like those 3 options a lot more than I like Alex Smith walking out of the training room or Trent Dilfer grandfathering the offense to lead the 49ers to a win. Give me the Saints, but I don’t love it as much as you’d think.

Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots (-16):
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

First of all, I don’t think the line has good value in this game, but I have to take the Pats. I think the Redskins have the best defense the Patriots have faced thus far, but that doesn’t mean they will have trouble scoring. New England has made it look easy this season, and while this game might have a few more twists and turns, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots held the Redskins to 7-10 points. That means the Patriots would have to score 27 points to surely cover, something I think is very possible, especially with such a young quarterback running the show for the Redskins. New England’s defense is so tactical that they always seem to take the strongest part of opposing offenses out of their game. That means the Redskins’ rushing attack will have to go through walls to succeed. That puts a lot of pressure on Campbell. Yes, the Patriots are this good.

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

I don’t usually like the Colts as big favorites, but against the WAY overrated Panthers, a team starting either Vinny Testeverde or David Carr at quarterback, yeah, I’ll take my chances with my #2 team in football. The Colts are very good, whether you or me or anyone else wants to except that, I don’t care. They are one of the best teams in football, and Bob Sanders is the most dynamic safety I’ve seen since Ronnie Lott hit the field back in the day. Yes, he makes plays faster than everyone else on the field. The Panthers are too slow (besides Steve Smith – who will get special treatment) to compete in this one.

Week 9 College Football Picks Review: 2007

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I had some tough luck on Saturday, and that shows with all that good karma I had coming my way on Sunday (12-2 overall in my NFL picks). Anyway, check out my review and maybe you’ll be convinced that my 2-3 should have very well been a 4-1.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Review

Free Picks: Week 9

Minnesota Golden Gophers (+23.5) @ Michigan Wolverines: loss
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

With Michigan up 10-0 with a few minutes gone in the 2nd quarter, I liked my chances, basically up 33 points… Chances? Well, they were crushed when the Wolverines shutout the Gophers 34-0 after that, and I lost this 23.5 point game by half a damn point. Talk about bitter, that was like drinking pure cranberry juice after rinsing with Listerine. It was Carlos Brown’s 85 yard touchdown run with 9 minutes left in the 4th that killed me, well, aside from Minnesota going 45 minutes without a score, that hurt as well. Tough game to lose, even tougher to watch.

Florida International @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-39): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

“There are a lot of points on the board here, but the Razorbacks are going to be very close to shutting out FLINT, and I think McFadden, Jones, and company can put up 7 or 8 touchdowns. That will be enough in this one. ” Well, Flint put up 10, but as I imagined, the Razorbacks were ready to destroy Flint, rolling them by 48 and a much needed win for good Ole Lucky Lester.

Arizona Wildcats @ Washington Huskies (-3.5): loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

Talk about an absolutely brutal finish for Washington Husky backers such as myself. Since the opening day win over Syracuse (a game I picked) the Dogs have killed me one way or the other. This one I thought was well in hand, when I turned the channel up 41-26 half way through the 4th. Boy was I wrong. The Wildcats scored quick, then the Dog continued the collapse by fumbling on their own half of the field. The Cats punched that one in as well, and a two point conversion tied it. Still, the Huskies wasted another chance, and the Wildcats put together a touchdown drive to take the lead. 22 points in the 4th quarter – when will these Huskies learn? Better yet, when will I learn?

Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats (-24.5): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: WSEX)

“Kansas State is too good for the Baylor Bears. The Wildcats do all the little things right, and that’s the type of team that kills Baylor. It may seem like a lot of points, and I understand that, but the Bears haven’t lost a game by less than 20 points all season long. 5 losses, all by 20 points or more. I like the Wildcats in that situation.” Chalk it up as 6 losses and still by 20 points or more, one by 38 points, this one, a 51-13 stomping by the Kansas State Wildcats. And Baylor scored in the 4th, late. This was a good win.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Texas Longhorns (-20.5): loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: WSEX)

This was the only loss I think I picked wrong on Saturday. Yes, basically, I’m saying this is the only pick I would have changed after watching Saturday’s game. The Longhorns were in a lull, and the Cornhuskers played their best football of the season. I should have at least felt that possibly coming, and just left this game alone. The other games, I would pick the same if I had the chance to do it again.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Oct 26

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Week 8, we’re on the down slope now, nothing but downhill wins, and some team killing injuries from here on out. And the same can be said for the “bad” teams, a couple backups that you pick up now could lead you back in the hunt. Bring it!

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

Papa Weimer-
Who should I pick up between Jesse Chatman, Kenny Watson, and Earnest Graham? – Sam Millhouse in LA

I’d pick up Chatman if it’s a seasonal league. Honestly, I like what Watson brings the Bengals offense, more options than Rudi Johnson, but I think the Bengals will turn back to Rudi when he gets healthy, and that means less Watson, and less fantasy points. Graham, I like his ability a lot, but the Bucs don’t seem too sold on him – they were looking for another guy before Pittman went down, and they got one with Bennett. Michael is a former Pro-Bowler (I think) and he’s been productive when healthy. I think those two share touches from here on out. Chatman is getting the starting gig, and he’s a big talented guy that can pound the ball as many times as the Dolphins want to give it to him. Considering that McMichael went via free agency, Chambers just got traded to the Chargers, and the Dolphins have a young Cleo Lemon rolling at quarterback, I’m assuming those carries will be up around 25 for the rest of the season. I like Jesse’s ability, and think he can do big things with 25 looks. All are decent options, though.

I need a free agent defense this week because my Cowboys are on bye, do you have a leader of the pack between: Seattle, Indianapolis, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Cleveland? – Super Manny in Portland

I like the Colts because I think they’ll dominate the Panthers offense. Vinny won’t be tossing many touchdowns in this one, I can guarantee you that. Plus, Deshaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams aren’t doing much this season, either, aside from a couple big runs. Bob Sanders is a killer at the safety spot, and he’ll help the Colts limit the Panthers to 10 points or less. Seattle’s on bye, so toss them out of the equation – Minnesota goes up against an Eagles team that has vastly under produced, and might just step up their game against a sub-par secondary. New Orleans is New Orleans, a defense I wouldn’t start unless they were playing the Niners, Dolphins, Raiders, or Rams – and even then I’d be worried. I know they’re playing the Niners, but Frank Gore could have a huge day, and there are better options out there. And last, I don’t like the Browns because they’ve been poor on defense all season long. I know they are playing the hapless Rams, but remember, in St. Louis there lives a dynamic offense with enough firepower to put up 40 points in any given game. That offense has been sleeping for the first half of the season. I know they don’t have much of an offensive line, but a block here and a block there, and some confidence can come out, and then the Browns are getting killed by an 0-7 team. So be careful when picking up a bad defense like the Browns just because they’re playing a struggling offense.

I’m about to turn things around, Jackson is coming back, and I’m in line to pick up Jesse Chatman. There’s a few receivers out there on the wire as well, big names, but small output – who do you like amongst this group of fantasy duds? Lee Evans, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Hines Ward, and Joey Galloway. – Jon-John-Johnny from Austin

Toni, Tone, Tony – I like them all. That’s hilarious, by the way. Of that group, I think Lee Evans has the most upside of the bunch. The more Trent Edwards gets to play, the more he’ll get the ball to Lee Evans, and the more Lee gets the ball, the more he gets to run past defenders to the end-zone. The running game in Buffalo is pretty solid, and thus defenses will start paying more attention to Lynch. When they do that, Lee Evans will strike. As far as a sure thing, I like Hines Ward – look at his totals over the last few years. When he plays, he’s money. He gets about 80 yards and a score on solid days. That’s a great stat line for a receiver. Hines is even better in a PPR league. Next, I like Coltson and Jackson, and despite Marques’ hype in that Saints’ system, I think they are dead even. Jackson has less attention paid to him by defenses, and I think he can equal Colston’s totals the rest of the way, especially with Chris Chambers drawing the best corner backs – I actually think Chambers’ addition will help Jackson. Colston has too much ability to stink the rest of the way. I expect better numbers from him, but not as great as last season. Last, Joey Galloway, and only because he’s so up and down. I can’t think of a guy who’s killed it on my bench, and sucked it in my starting lineup more than Galloway. You never know with this guy. That’s my take.

Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, fantasy and real life…
– Dudley Do What? in Carolina.

I like and have always liked Tom more. Maybe it’s because Peyton looks like a good and Tom is probably the only guy I’d really consider switching lives with. Or maybe it’s because Brady always does work in the clutch and Peyton almost always struggles. Or maybe it’s because I thought Tom was better in college than Peyton. I don’t know, it could be a lot of things, but right now it’s 27 touchdowns and 2 picks for one guy, and less than half those numbers for the other guy. I thought Tom would do wonderful things with a few very good receivers, but Moss has been out of this world, Daunte is breaking tackles like he’s Jim Brown, and Wes Welker uses those Super Man eyes to catch everything thrown at him. That makes Tom even mo-better than he already was. Manning is great, hall of famer, no question, but even with all his offensive line chatter, his ability to “run the entire offense” and the way he roots on the grocery store workers, I still think Tom is better. Peyton’s had great receivers and running backs for years – Tom has those now, and he’s rolling the league up like a joint from my childhood. Plus, Peyton has a funny looking square head. So, for fantasy and real life, I’ll take Tomothy.

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 8

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This Week’s Top Team: I didn’t top 129, but 116 points is pretty good from my team of Fantasy Studs for Week 8.QB: Tom Brady vs. Washington: 41 points for Tom Brady. That’s what I’m talking about. Weird, he was once again the highest scoring playing in fantasy football. Like I said, I have to pick this guy.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Houston: LT had 90 rushing yards, but his low scoring day was the fault of the Chargers defense, a unit that scored all day, and gave the Chargers no reason to use their best player and risk an injury after half time.

RB: Brandon Jacobs vs. Miami: Brandon Jacobs had 131 rushing yards, just like I had predicted, but none of the scores I thought I’d be getting. He was the 5th overall RB during a slow week for running backs, something that’s becoming more and more of a consistent reality with all the huge passing numbers this season. Still, 13 points isn’t all that bad.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Carolina: Just like I expected, Reggie exploited the Panthers’ secondary, this time to the tune of 168 yards and 24 fantasy points in my league. Thanks Reggie! Reggie tied with Colston for 1st overall for WRs.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Washington: Randy only had 47 of Tom Brady’s 300+ yards passing, but he did catch one of Tom’s 3 touchdown passes, giving Moss 10 fantasy points for Week 8, good for 10th amongst WRs.

TE: Kellen Winslow vs. St. Louis: “Winslow is a sure thing for 8 fantasy points from the TE.” He wasn’t the best option, like say Antonio Gates, but like I said, Kellen got his 8.

K: Robbie Gould vs. Detroit: “I’ve been struggling with kickers (fade me) so I’ll be going with last years’ top guy. Yhatzee!” Talk about nothing. Dude had one extra point. Thank you, Brian Griese, for throwing interceptions right before each chance for Robbie to kick a football.

D: Giants vs. Dolphins: The Giants allowed a late touchdown, which hurt my overall score, but New York put together a decent day, good enough for 13 fantasy points.

LUCKY’S Week 8 SLEEPERS

Brian Griese: Griese was once again stymied by the Lions. I just don’t get it, maybe the Lions just aren’t as bad in the secondary as I thought they were. 6 pts – F

Alex Smith: He didn’t look good, but he tallied up 14 fantasy points in the process, not bad. I think Smith will play better and better as the season moves forward, but for now, I’ll take a B for his performance.

Fred Taylor: Fred had 24 carries, but for only 68 yards. That was good for 6 points, but not too good for fantasy owners. D

Brandon Jacobs: He did alright, I ended up using him as my top pick, and a sleeper – kind of ridiculous, I know, so I’ll take a C+ here.

Steven Jackson: Jackson did all his damage early, 8 carries for 41 yards and a touchdown, and it looked like the Rams were back offensively. Then the stud running back went down, the running threat crumbled, and the Rams lost. Still, Jackson’s 10 points were good enough for 8th amongst running backs. B-?

Hines Ward: “Hines “I’m gonna kill the Bengals’ secondary” Ward is going to show us why his middle name is an entire murderous phrase.” 2 touchdowns, that’s the kind of performance I was looking for. I should have picked Hines in front of Randy Moss for my top pick, oh well, I’ll take a solid ‘A+’ here.

Lee Evans: It’s about time, Lee did up the Jets to the tune of 138 yards and a long touchdown, hooking me up with 21 fantasy points from my sleeper who has been dropped in many a league. Good deal. A+

Greg Olsen: Olsen ranked 3rd amongst tight ends, catching a few balls for 59 yards and a touchdown. 3rd overall? I’ll take my A.

Titans DST: 3rd overall this week with 21 fantasy points in my league, not too shabby for my sleeper D of the week.

LUCKY’S Week 8 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Jason Campbell: Campbell’s 5 points weren’t quite as bad as how he played, but he did throw a last quarter meaningless touchdown with his Redskins down 52-7. I have to say, this wasn’t too difficult of a prediction.

Clinton Portis: Clinton had 11 carries for 27 yards, yes, normal teams can’t run against the Patriots. He did catch a handful of balls for 50+ yards, though – so his 7 points weren’t as bad as I thought, but they were still bad enough for you to thank me for telling you to sit him.

Cedric Benson: Benson didn’t have too bad a day, considering he only carried the ball 13 times. He had 50 yards rushing and 10 receiving, good for 6 points. Good enough to start? No, but not as bad as say, Lamont Jordan’s 12 yards rushing.

Donald Driver: 28 yards, two measly fantasy points, and his quarterback threw for 331 yards… looks like I lucked out with this one. Oh well, I’ll take it, he probably had Champ on him all night. That’s kind of what I figured. Pat on the old back, that’s right.

Marques Colston: This pick killed my whole “perfect” bench ’em section. Colston caught 3 touchdowns, killing the stupid fantasy owners who dropped the young touchdown maker. Silly fantasy owners. Silly me for doubting this sophomore star.

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 8

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This Week’s Top Team: Lets see if I can’t 1-up my 129 points from last week (thanks for all those points Tom).

QB: Tom Brady vs. Washington: Is it fair to pick anyone else? This guy is unreal right now, and I don’t think even the Redskins stout secondary can run his show. We’ll see. If Brady costs too much this week, roll with Eli Manning, Big Ben, McNabb, and even Brian Griese.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Houston: LT’s back on his high horse, and you can bet he’ll be running to put out that fire for all those people back home in San Diego.

RB: Brandon Jacobs vs. Miami: Zach Thomas is out again, and you know what that means, another “Raider” day for Miami. Derek Ward is most likely out this week, leaving Jacobs to do most, if not all of the heavy lifting. 130 yards and a couple scores is what I’m looking for, here.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Carolina: The Panthers are way overrated, and their secondary is a weak link. Manning will exploit that, and why not go to old dependable, Reggie Wayne.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Washington: I have to ride this guy – he’s been amazing, unstoppable, and Brady is starting to realize how good Moss really is. If Tom wasn’t a shoe in for MVP – Moss would be getting lots of votes. At least from the DB sector of the panel.

TE: Kellen Winslow vs. St. Louis: The Rams actually have a very stout rush-defense – and thus the Browns won’t be able to run much. They will score, and that means passing, and Winslow is a sure thing for 8 fantasy points from the TE. A score, and he’s a top flight guy this week.

K: Robbie Gould vs. Detroit: I’ve been struggling with kickers (fade me) so I’ll be going with last years’ top guy. Yhatzee!

D: Giants vs. Dolphins: The Dolphins suck and they just lost their best player (by far) so I have to take a Giants’ team that makes the most of big plays.

LUCKY’S Week 8 SLEEPERS

Brian Griese: The Griese-ball goes heads up with Detroit, and I’m sure they’ll limit a bad rushing attack from the Bears. So, Griese will be passing a lot. I like my chances at a big day.

Alex Smith: He’s probably out there to be had, and Alex has been brutal when he’s played this year, but they’re going up against the Saints for God’s sake, how easy can it get?

Fred Taylor: Fred’s almost become a fantasy afterthought, but with Garrard out, there’s going to be plenty of carries for the running backs in Jacksonville. With Jones-Drew hurting a little bit, I imagine that Fred will get around 20 carries. He’s good enough to do damage with that many looks. Give him a shot.

Brandon Jacobs: I love Jacobs against Miami this week, especially without Zach Thomas playing linebacker – but this is hardly a sleeper, Jacobs is a stud. Last week here for him.

Steven Jackson: Haha… Yeah, I’m using the consensus 2nd round pick as my sleeper, but he hasn’t played all that well when healthy, and he’s been out forever. He’ll come back and have an immediate impact on a terrible Browns defense, one that allows the most yards per game in the entire league.

Hines Ward: Hines “I’m gonna kill the Bengals’ secondary” Ward is going to show us why his middle name is an entire murderous phrase.

Lee Evans: It’s time for this gamebreaker to start breaking open some games. Why not against a brutal Jets defense? Good question. He’ll put up points this week.

Greg Olsen: I like Olsen to find the end-zone this week against the Lions. That would make him a top tight end. He’s a good sleeper, and still available in most leagues out there.

Titans DST: I’m not too impressed with Oakland’s offense lately, especially up against a good run defense. So, I have to love this match-up this week.

LUCKY’S Week 8 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Jason Campbell: With Jason and Clinton on my bench him section, you’d think I don’t see the Skins having much of a chance this weekend against the Patriots – yep, that’s about right.

Clinton Portis: If this game is anything like all of the Patriots’ games, they’ll be up so fast that running will become a non-factor for the Redskins. That spells trouble for Washington. Portis will almost certainly struggle this week.

Cedric Benson: Even against the Lions, I still don’t like Benson. Detroit has a better run defense than advertised, and open spaces in their secondary that will cut down on the Bears’ rushing numbers.

Donald Driver: Driver is a stud, but I think he’ll struggle against the Broncos secondary in Denver this week.

Marques Colston: Colston has been bad all season. He hasn’t gotten much help from his offense, but the sophomore slump is busting his balls. Nate Clements and the Niners defense shuts down the #1 receiver on opposing teams, so don’t expect much from Colston in terms of a better week this time around.

Fantasy Football Tear Jerkers – Week 8

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Fantasy Football Know-It-All

Back pain and all, Older Papa Weimer is back with his Tear Jerkers for Week 8. There’s only so much you can do, start the players you have and hope for the best – if you happened to have this group of donkeys on Sunday (or Monday) than you are SOL this week.

Lamont Jordan: Where have you gone, buddy? You had everyone and their mother convinced that last years’ terrible totals were an aberration, nice trick. Again you struggled, and made those same owners sick that had gloated after the first two games about how great you were, and how they were so cool for stealing you late and picking WRs and QBs early. Well, screw them.

Frank Gore: 4 points for this Top 5 pick, ouch, it’s getting ugly in San Francisco – so much for competing for the top spot in the West, eh? The 49ers are dip sixing it as we speak. The 49ers are getting killed by everyone, and Frank Gore isn’t getting the ball enough. Everyone can see the kid is frustrated, and I believe he’ll have about 5 big games to finish off the season in fine fashion. But this week, Gore was a tear jerker.

Donald Driver: 28 yards on a night where Brett threw for 331 and two scores… Ugh. I watched the game with about 6 die hard Packer fans, and I realized something; Brett Favre never makes a bad throw – for example, the one ball Driver lunged for in the end zone, the one that barely skipped off his longest finger tip, to a Packer fan, that was a ball Driver just couldn’t hold on to, “God, Driver, hold onto the damn ball.” Wow. Anyway, regardless, it was Jennings and Jones having big days for Green Bay, and Ryan Grant as well. Not Driver.

Brian Griese: 204 yards, 4 interceptions, and 1 touchdown…. Gross. That’s 6 points for a quarterback playing against the Detroit Lions. That’s not the first time Griese has thrown bad picks against the Lions. They must have his number – unfortunately for them, the only quarterbacks number they have is Brian Griese’s, and they’re done playing him for the rest of the season.

Matt Schaub: I don’t like putting injured players in here, but Schaub threw for 77 yards and 2 picks in his limited action. That’s a nice -2 for the day in my league. Not necessarily a good score for a starting quarterback, now is it? Nope. If you started Stump the Schaub, you were definitely crying after Sunday.
(Congratulations to Lee Evans for playing well enough to be in consideration for a fantasy tear jerker award next week, it’s about time little man!)

Free College Football Picks Week 9 – 2007

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I had a nice Week 8, saying that a 4-1 record was all but guaranteed. Weird, I finished 4-1. Well, this week, I’m not guaranteeing anything, but I feel pretty strongly about my plays, and you should to. Check out my free picks, and for a small fee, my elite picks are solid as well.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Minnesota Golden Gophers (+23.5) @ Michigan Wolverines:
(Line: Thursday, 5:00am EST: Belmont)

This game hasn’t finished with a 23 point difference since 1996 – and I don’t think this is the year Michigan changes that. Minnesota is the best 1-win team in college football. I don’t think Minnesota will pull out another underdog game-buster, like App State did in Week 1, but let’s not go crazy and say the Gophers suck because they lost to a D1-AA team last week. Uh, so did the Wolverines, remember? Take the Gophers and all those points.

Florida International @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-39):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

There are a lot of points on the board here, but the Razorbacks are going to be very close to shutting out FLINT, and I think McFadden, Jones, and company can put up 7 or 8 touchdowns. That will be enough in this one.

Arizona Wildcats @ Washington Huskies (-3.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Huskies have struggled to find wins after their 2-0 start. In fact, wins have been downright impossible to find, despite some quality performances against some very good football teams. They’ve been tied or up at or after half time in each of their 5 losses, and those 5 losses haven’t come against shmucks. Aside from a loss to the undefeated in the Pac 10 Bruins, the Huskies haven’t lost to a team not ranked in the Top 25. In fact, each of those 4 losses have come to teams in the Top 10. That’s a dirty schedule. I think the Huskies will put two halves together against the Wildcats, and notch their 3rd win of the season. The toughest part of their season is over, this is where the wins start to come.

Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats (-24.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: WSEX)

Kansas State is too good for the Baylor Bears. The Wildcats do all the little things right, and that’s the type of team that kills Baylor. It may seem like a lot of points, and I understand that, but the Bears haven’t lost a game by less than 20 points all season long. 5 losses, all by 20 points or more. I like the Wildcats in that situation.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Texas Longhorns (-20.5):
(Line: Thursday, 3:00pm EST: WSEX)

Nebraska isn’t stepping up and beating anyone any time soon. That whole program is in the dumps, and the kids no longer believe they can win. That’s not something that can help Cornhuskers chances against a very good Longhorn team. The Longhorns haven’t kicked any good teams around, but they’re used to smashing bad ball clubs. Remember, the Longhorns were ranked in the Top 5 earlier this season, and even without Limas Sweed, they have the talent to put 50 on the Huskers’ terrible defense. Take Texas here.

Week 7 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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Even Steven – for my bottom 7 picks of the week, that’s not all that bad. Check out my Week 7 review, and see how a couple wins here and there got me to 3-3-1.

Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ New Orleans Saints: win
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Bookmaker)

I really think the Falcons would have won this game had Leftwich stuck in there. The Falcons covered easily and almost made the Saints look really bad in New Orleans. Atlanta lost, naturally, because that’s what atlanta does, but the game was close, just like Ole Lucky predicted, and I got my first win of Week 1.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: loss
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

Well I’m glad I didn’t bet the house on this game, as I took a loss in Buffalo. The Bills defense really impressed me on Sunday. The Ravens should have and could have run the ball a lot more, and probably pulled out of Buffalo with a victory, but the way it went, the books took home a lot of cash, and while just a little bit of it was mine, I still feel had.

New England Patriots (-16.5) @ Miami Dolphins: win
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker)

This game showed me what I already knew, the Patriots are the best team in football and the Dolphins are not. Also, the Patriots aren’t to be wagered against. Winner.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (+1.5): loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Bookmaker)

Matt Schaub got injured, the Texans bombed big time… And then they crawled back from the depths of hell to go up 1 with a minute left in the game. However, the Texans defense let Kerry Collins, of all people, lead the Titans into range for Rod Bironas’s 8th field goal of the day. He’s the new record holder, and I lose this bet by a half of a point. Naturally, I had already written off all hope, but was then pulled back in by the hair on my twelve o-clock shadow, only to fall down and out.

N.Y. Jets (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals: push
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: 5Dimes)

I can’t believe I got this push. Now, a lot of crap hit the fan, and that’s just what happens in Bengals and Jets games, but the Jets were looking good, and pretty much taking it too the Bengals before their defense blew it, and a cover seemed almost impossible after the Bengals returned an interception for a touchdown and went up 38-23 with 37 seconds to go. But silly me, I was safe after all. The Jets went and scored in 30 seconds, and went for two and got it. And look at that, I push a sure loss.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): loss
(Line: Monday, 1:30pm EST: Bookmaker -4.5)

“I don’t like this game at all. If I didn’t take every game, I would leave this one alone. I want to take the Bears, because the Eagles have been, well, frankly crappy. I want to take the Eagles because the Bears have been brutal all season long, minus one half against the Packers. I advise you to sit this one out, but if you’re picking your weekly office pool, and need to lean one way or another, take the Eagles because of their defensive strength.” I can’t say I didn’t warn you. This game came right down to the wire, as the Eagles’ play calling was as bad as it’s ever been. It’s as if Andy Reid gets a plan in his head, and if doesn’t work, he just pounds it until it does. Brian Westbrook could have beaten the Bears by himself, but Andy didn’t let him. This game was too close, and the Eagles failed late.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): win
(Line: Thursday, 3:30am EST: Belmont)

“The Seahawks are the better team here. The Rams defense is brutal. Their offense is worse. They don’t have the bulk to out-muscle a relatively soft Hawks defensive front, and when Marc Bulger goes back to pass, his offensive line full of back-ups won’t give him nearly enough time to pick apart the Seahawks. I also don’t think the Hawks will struggle at home again after the Saints embarrassed them last week. This is usually where the Hawks step it up, and I think they’ll do just that this week at home.” Well, the Rams couldn’t take advantage of the Hawks weak run defense, they couldn’t slow a pass rush that sacked Marc Bulger to the point of tears, and the Ram offense looked good on 5 plays, the entire game. I was right about this one, and thus I pulled off an even record in Week 7. A couple close losses that could have gone either way made all the difference, but on a day like that, I’ll take .500.