Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick: This is my favorite upset of the week, and it has been from the get go. However, looking at it now, it looks as though I’m not the only one picking the Packers to dismantle the Cardinals in Arizona this Sunday. 63% of the public betting on the spread like the Packers to cover, and those are the late numbers. Early percentages were so high that the books responded, moving this spread all the way to even in most sports books as I write this. I see experts taking the Packers at a 2 to 1 clip, and even ESPN’s Suomi likes Green Bay.

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If Anquan Boldin were playing, the Cardinals would have one advantage in this football game, but with him out, the only thing the Cardinals have over the Packers is experience. Arizona made it all the way to the big show last season, playing just one home game, and falling just a few seconds short of taking home the title. But I don’t see that same Cardinals team this season. Arizona has been very inconsistent all season long, and there’s something about the Packers final half of the season that has me admiring their team.

The Packers lost just one game over the final half of the season, as a touchdown pass by Ben Roethlisberger as time expired in Pittsburgh gave the Steelers a 37-36 win. But outside of that, the packers have dominated. During those 8 games, the Packers handled 3 playoff teams, winning by a combined 77-28. Green Bay’s offense has impressed me all year, but it’s their growth in that 3-4 defense that gives them the nod here. Great corners against a less than full strength Cardinals receiving corps, and pass rushers galore -yeah, I like the packers.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 2

I’m back with my big belly, my bigger brain, and my even bigger… umm…. feet. My feet are huge for being a relatively short guy, size 12.5, that’s pretty big. What I hate more than anything is trying to jam into a 12 or flopping around like a clown in a 13. Plus, only a few shoes have 12.5 – regardless, I’ve found another thing to be angry about, and I’m going to talk about it now. Deciding to go receiver happy in one of my drafts has gotten me no where, and it’s not because my running backs have disappointed. I snagged Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez and look where that’s gotten me – no wins, one loss, damn! Lucky tries to tell me to hold tight, relax, you’ll be fine, but I can’t help but hate the fact that I got expensive receivers when I would have been happy as can be with guys like Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, Wes Welker, and Devin Hester… Okay, damn, I’m sick of complaining – damn receivers! lets answer some questions…

Cozmo in San Antonio asks, “Should I sell Adrian Peterson now or wait until Detroit? I have some holes at receiver and I’m pretty sure I could get Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Eddie Royal for AP all by himself. What should I do? Can I really live with myself trading AP?”

Honestly, I would probably make that trade, but I’m a value whore, and certainly think all three of those guys will have solid seasons. All three have very low value after week 1 (because of their low output to start the year), and right now nobody’s value is higher than APs. However, it probably depends on the rest of your roster. There’s no point to upgrade a little and end up dropping solid guys in the process. If you have decent receivers, you might want to stand pat with AP, he looks like a 2000 yard back, and there’s no doubt that kind of production will keep you in games. But if you do have a hole, like you say, AJ and CJ and a guy like Royal looks pretty good. As always, see if you can get more somewhere else. I’m not sure you could get too much more than that, but shoot, it doesn’t hurt to try. AP might have even more value after running into Detroit this next week, but then again, I’m not sure he could have more value than 180 yards and 3 scores…

Dennis in Alaska says, “Last week you told me I should start Eddie Royal over Hines Ward, what gives?”

That being said, I also told you to start Julius Jones over Chris Johnson, which would have made up for that Royal over Ward advice. I still think Royal will have a huge year, and would probably start him over Ward again, despite their Week 1 totals. You can’t get angry at the single piece of poor advice that I give you when I feed you good stuff until you’re belly limits the vision when you pee. You have to understand, this is sport, these guys can surprise even the best fantasy minds – but I’m guessing you didn’t start Julius over Chris, or you probably wouldn’t have written in with frustration.

Dennis in Alaska replies, “Touche. I listened to the bad advice and left the good advice on my bench. It would have been about even had I listened to both. Well played. Thanks for the free advice. On that note, do you start Chris, Julius, Thomas Jones, or Tim Hightower this week? I need two.

No problem, my  man, just doing work. I would start Chris against Houston, he should blow them up. I would leave Julius on the bench this week, the Niners are tough against the run, and he won’t catch too many balls out of the backfield. I would probably go with Thomas against the Patriots. I don’t think the Pats will be great against the run with Seymour in Oakland, and Mayo on the bench. TJ should get plenty of carries this weekend. Tim put up good numbers, but I bet he never catches that many passes again, plus Beanie looked like the better runner, and I imagine he’ll take carries away from Tim a little this week against a mediocre Jags defensive front. I still think Hightower is a solid play, I just like Jones more. Good luck, hopefully I get them both right this week!

Do I trade Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Ward for Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Ward is my #4 running back behind Maurice Jones Drew, Kevin Smith, and Clinton Portis and ahead of Jamal Lewis. Boldin would be my highest ranked receiver in front of Houshmandzadeh, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez. Deal or no deal?

Deal. I think Boldin will be a beast starting in probably Week 3, he might be a so-so play while healing from his hammy injury – however, it could also linger. I think it’s a good low risk play by you because when healthy Boldin is a Top 10 guy easily, and it’s not like Warner is a much lower play than Rodgers. You get some big upside while losing a time share running back and for this season probably lose nothing at quarterback. Kurt played poorly in Week 1, but I doubt that continues as long as he stays on the field. It’s not like Aaron Rogers has been the beacon of health in his career either. Take a chance, good upside for you there.

I’m out of here to write some receiver hate mail to all those fantasy guys that advised me to go WR late in the first round…. blast them!!!

Ten for Tuesday

Here goes something…

  1. I killed it on my top picks of the week, also known as the picks I put my face on. That’s right, I lost just one game on the week. I was 6-1 with my college picks and an undefeated 3-0 in the NFL. I’m up in both football formats and hopefully winning you guys some money. Lots of games, lots of picks, lots of wins thus far. I’ll keep ’em coming!
  2. I’m so sick of “random stats” that I’ve started hitting the “recall” button on my controller, busting back to the last channel my girlfriend was watching, ever single time ESPN starts to read off some bullshit stat about how B.J. Upton is the only player with a last name starting with the letter U to hit multiple homeruns in a playoff game – or never in a Monday Night Football game has there been two punt return touchdowns, a blocked field goal for a touchdown, and three idiot announcers reading some complete idiot stat guys newest concoction on the same damn night. That’s right, so instead of just enjoying a good game I get all flustrated and end up watching some spew about how Paris Hilton is trying to find a new BFF – whatever the hell that means. So, now I’m pissed, watching terrible TV, and possibly missing Reggie Bush take back kick number three, but at least I don’t have to listed to Mike Torico babble on about some random stat that makes me want to break my TV – I only have to deal with that dumb blond rich bitch that has some crazy need to project her image in front of millions of MTV watchers. Ugh. Needless to say, I’m just pissed. Who would have though? Me, hating ESPN.
  3. Is now the time to go get Thomas Jones? I’ve been looking at some remaining schedules, and with the Jets showing everyone in the league they can toss the ball around, more focus will go into guarding against Brett’s wild arm and Coles and Cotchery along the outside. But, the Jets have shown they want to run the ball given an open look. I think Thomas Jones finishes the year as a Top 10 back, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a Top 5 guy from here on out. He sits at a pretty reasonable value I reckon.
  4. I was watching LeSean McCoy this weekend – he’s legit. Him and Beanie Wells, both should come out and do work in the big league. There are so many good backs in the game right now, I don’t know where they would fit, but if the Seahawks don’t try to grab a big play receiver or a big play running back in the first couple rounds of next years’ draft, they’re brass is just plain stupid.
  5. I don’t write one, and proabably never will, but I figure this is as good a place as any to throw out my biggest stud pickups of last week. There were a few moves that made many an owner feel brilliant for pulling out a win, and my Top guys at the big 3 positions are… Kyle Orton, DeAngelo Williams, and Bernard Berrian. That’s right, these three guys were all additions in my fantasy leagues this week. Williams was dropped earlier in the week, Orton hadn’t been owned all year, and Berrien was dropped after not impressing and being a question mark for this weeks action. I picked up Berrian and started him over Chris Henry. I won by 10. Yhatzee. Kyle Orton was a huge part of my uncle’s win this week, and my best buddy picked up DeAngelo later in the week, and started him because he was hurting with Steven Jackson and McFadden on his bench. Three big pick-ups, and people say drafting is where you win this game. HA!
  6. Mike Walker: All the talent that most of the receivers in Jacksonville don’t have. He’s really fast and seems to attack the ball. If he keeps getting chances he might be a nice player for David Garrard. I’ve always liked Reggie Williams, and Matt Jones has shown an ability to make big plays, but Walker has that NFL speed that they don’t, and that could really help this Jaguar team.
  7. Just in, Ronnie Brown is really freaking good. Any time you take a running back in the Top 10 in an NFL draft I think it’s a mistake, but Brown can really do it all. And he’s a lefty. It’s nuts. He reads really well, runs with great patience, can throw the ball, is really fast, and he’s got great size. Those that believed Ricky Williams was going to hold of Ronnie all year long, how does that look now? That said, I still think Ricky should be owned in fantasy circles. He’s not only a great back-up guy in case of injury, but he produces right now. He had a down week, sure, but I think he’ll bust the century mark a couple times and be worth keeping around.
  8. Michael Turner can only run against bad defenses, so he’ll really struggle against the Packers. I can’t tell you how many times I read that in fantasy articles this weekend, it’s like “they” all got together and pow-wowed there way to hating Mike Turner. Time to check out the league’s stats fellas, this guy put up 127 against the Pack and still holds the top spot on the rushing yardage pile. The Packers aren’t great against the run right now, they are down both DTs from last years’ defense and the Pack running game is struggling so the defense is on the field longer. But still, just because Turner had down games against some better defenses doesn’t mean he can only run against garbage. This kid is legit, and the more Matt Ryan learns and matures, the more Turner will burn defenses.
  9. I wonder how Plax feels about the Giants having their best offensive game of the year with him out? This is why you don’t throw 8 mill a year at receivers. I think they can change an offensive outlook, help #2 and #3 receivers out because they are getting so much attention, but I also don’t think a receiver makes or breaks an offense. Anquan Boldin is one of my favorite receivers in the game, he’s even better than he gets credit for, but look, the Cardinals did the Bills good this week, and Boldin was out. Steve Breaston, Early Doucett, these guys are manageable, and if you can put a lot of your money elsewhere, I think your team is better paying lower salaries to the receiver position. Hixon is legit and Steve Smith is solid and even Amani Toomer (as old as he is) can beat defenses regularly. All this being said, Plax is a beast and he’s going to help the Giants a lot this year. I’m just saying, maybe receiver isn’t the position you need to deal out the bucks to….
  10. I really like Buster Davis for the Chargers. He doesn’t get many balls, and he isn’t fantasy relevant yet. In fact, even though I’m loving his game, I’m leaving him on the waiver wire. I’m just saying, the guy looks good when the ball is thrown his way, and I now see why the Chargers drafted the kid. He’s fast and aggressive. Here’s to hoping the guy gets more looks, I think he can be a really good player in this league.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 2

Two weeks, two winners. That’s right, for the second straight week I picked every game the NFL had to offer and came out on top of the books. A little luck, a lot of plusses and minuses to consider, and here I am, 8 games over .500 after two weeks. My first week, 10-6, my second week, 9-5-1. That puts me at 19-11-1. This is how Week 2 went wild.

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “I think the Raiders will go back to the drawing board and see that running the ball will work for them.” Fargas got hurt, but he was off to a nice start before he went out. McFadden rushed for 160 yards and Michael Bush toted the rock for 90 yards himself. Needless to say, the Raiders relied on the run and it carried them to an easy victory over the Chiefs. I WIN!

Chicago BearsCarolina Panthers (-3): (PUSH) Not much to say here, it was a tough game to cap and this is why. The Panthers aren’t a great home team, they don’t play well when favored, but the Bears are just the Bears, and not much to be worried about. It came down to the wire, but Jonathan Stewart’s touchdown put the Panther’s up 3 to stay and I pushed.

New Orleans Saints (+1)Washington Redskins: (LOSS) Up 24-15 going into the 4th quarter, the Saints were looking like a nice selection right around a pick’em. But the Redskins fought hard at home, and Jim Zorn got his first victory of the season. New Orleans was back to running the ball very poorly and Washington threw all over the Saints’ secondary as Jason Campbell put up over 300 yards through the air. The Redskins scored 14 unanswered in the 4th and took home the win.

Indianapolis Colts (pk) Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) “I like the Vikings to exploit the Colts run defense, but this game comes down to the wire and Peyton Manning, with one regular season game under his belt, can do enough against a suspect Viking pass defense to take this game on the road.” As it was Adrian Peterson went off for 160 rushing yards but it wasn’t enough as Peyton lead his squad down the field to win this one late. Peyton still has his rust, and it might not be warn off by next Sunday, but he had enough to make my prediction ring true, 300+ yards for the dumpy faced Colt QB.

New York Giants (-8)St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) The Giants seemingly did anything they wanted to the Rams, and this wasn’t a close contest at all. St. Louis looks really bad, and I have to believe that Scott Linnehan’s future is starting to look grim in St. Louis. Eli followed the lead of his fellow poo-faced brother and really tossed the ball around the Rams secondary, putting up 40+ points on the Rams to show what the Eagles did wasn’t a fluke.

Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “without three of their starting offensive linemen, the Jaguars just don’t seem like a good favorite to bet on. I think the Jags will be better against the Bills than the Hawks were, but Buffalo’s physical play is a nice match-up for a physical Jags team. There aren’t many teams that will try to out-tough the Jaguars, and the Bills might just do that in Week 2. Take the points in this battle.” This one was close, and even with a poor offensive effort the Jags were leading headed down to the final minutes. But, Trent Edwards showed what he can do and orchestrated a nice game winning touchdown drive to end this thing. This was a solid bet.

Atlanta Falcons (+9)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) I still think I capped this game right. The Bucs were definitely out to make Matt Ryan beat them, and he couldn’t do anything close to that. Tampa stacked their line against the run and shut down Week 1’s rushing leader, Michael Turner. Earnest Graham looked legit again in less than 20 carries of action, and the Brian Griese led Bucs iced the Falcons and just wouldn’t allow touchdowns. Anyway, I’ll take the loss here.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) What can I say, when it rains, it floods the Hawks, that’s for sure. As if the fact that they were starting Logan Payne at receiver wasn’t bad enough, the Hawks lost Payne to a season ending knee injury in the first quarter. Ridiculous. I read somewhere, “Was Brett Favre on the cover of Madden ’09 or was it the Seahawks receiving corps?” Good accurate question there. Seattle still had a chance late, but really, they looked bad throughout this contest. THe only guys that looked good were Julius Jones and John Carlson. Either way, the 49ers won and my +220 bet I made felt really good when that game winning field goal went through the uprights. Your +9 looked brilliant throughout I’m sure.

Miami DolphinsArizona Cardinals (-6): (WINNER) “I expect Kurt Warner to air it out a little more against a suspect Dolphins secondary, as his two receivers look to have big games. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and while that doesn’t say much, it does mean they can handle the Dolphins with ease.” Warner was 19/24 for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bolding caught 6 balls for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald caught 6 balls for 153 yards. Seems like I took care of this game before it happened. Gotta love that.

Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans (-4): No game this week – will be played on November 9th.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)Cleveland Browns: (LOSS) The Steelers looked like they dominated this game, but they never scored again after Hines Ward’s touchdown, and 10 was enough to keep the Browns winless to start the season. Ben’s shoulder hurt a bit and it showed, as the Steelers just did their best to run out the clock. I really feel like I got a raw deal here, but since I did pretty well this week I’ll just shrug it off.

Green Bay Packers (-3) Detroit Lions: (WINNER) “Come on, this seems like an insulting line. This is definitely one of my picks of the week.” This game was easy to pick, but then the Lions fought back, but they then decided to be the Lions again and lose by a 48-25 margin. Brilliant. This was basically free money, and I hope you cashed in.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) Cincinnati Bengals:  (WINNER) “Free Money – even with Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans and the Bengals are on a different level, same league, but different level. For example, the Titans have 11 starting defensive players that can really tackle. The Bengals have one, and he’s a rookie. The Titans have a solid offensive attack despite quarterback trouble -the Bengals have a talented quarterback with previous success that looks lost because of how bad his offense is. Things are going bad in Cinci, and a Titan beat down isn’t going to make them feel any better.” Uh, yeah. When I said “free money” i meant “free money”.

San Diego Chargers (pk)Denver Broncos: (LOSS) The Chargers didn’t deserve to win this game despite the terrible call that handed the Broncos a victory late. That may sound weird, but the Broncos dominated this contest, and if it weren’t for some amazing plays down the stretch the Chargers wouldn’t have been close. Shanny’s balls to go for it to win the game… priceless. I lose this one, but it was as close as it gets, no doubt about that.

New England Patriots (+2.5)New York Jets: (WINNER) “At least there was something good out of Tom Brady going down with an injury – we get this spread to play with. I’ll take the Patriots as a dog against the Jets and laugh it all the way to the bank.” I am still giggling a bit, as the Patriots made Brett Favre’s addition look like a meaningless free agent signing. That’s right folks, even without our favorite quarterback, the Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league. Viva la free money!

Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): (LOSS)  Wow. What a game. The Eagles held the lead after a couple Cowboy mistakes early, but after McNabb put the ball on the turf in the 4th quarter, the Cowboys took the lead for good. A late drive couldn’t cut it for the Eagles, but they did cover, making me a loser for the 5th time this week. Still, after 15 games I was 9-5-1, not too shabby.

Three for Thursday: Week 2

What Would I do for a Klondike Bar? How about a healthy offensive line!: More than a couple quarterbacks are pondering that exact question this week, and that should make you worry too. That’s right, the Jaguars, Seahawks, Vikings, and Colts are all down at least one key guy on their respective offensive lines. The Jags, Hawks, and Colts look to be really hurting, while it’s just Tarvaris Jackson’s blind-side hurting in Minnesota. This week, the Jags play the Bills, a tough defensive front, and their offensive fantasy players should all be downgraded because of it. The Vikings play the Colts, so play them at will. The Colts, in turn, play the Vikes, that can’t be a good match-up for Joseph Addai, and Peyton might have to throw a little quicker, but he’s still a nice play. The Hawks go up against the 49ers, and if there was ever a good time to play Julius Jones, it’s probably now, but he, by no means, is a safe bet – even against that defensive line in San Fran. I’m just saying, the health of the big guys (or lack there of) is a big reason for success (or lack there of). Keep that in mind when setting your lineups.

What a Year for Rookies? Or what a first week?: It has often been said that rookies can’t be trusted unless they are running backs put into a great situation. Some have beaten that advice (Larry Fitz, even more so Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, Dwayne Bowe had a solid year, and a couple others for sure) but for the most part, there are more rookies with nice weeks than nice innagural seasons. Still, I can’t help but recognize the difference makers throughout this rookie class – and you should take notice as well. Guys not picked in the first round, players like Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Smith, Matt Forte, John Carlson – and then 1st rounders like Stewart, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Matt Ryan – these guys all seem pretty legit. Was week 1 just a coming out part for the rooks, and week 2 will be a blast of reality? It’s tough to say, but right now I’m going with the greatness of this class that was supposed to be void of solid receivers and high on super talents that hadn’t figured it out yet. Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson, among others, figured out how to rock week 1 like a champ.

The Great Wall of… CINCINNATI?: Don’t bet on it. The Titans look to be a team destined to have two 100+ yard rushers in the same week for the first time this year. Kerry Collins has the deep arm to keep the Bengals secondary honest, and even then, it’s not as if they can tackle. Good luck catching Chris Johnson, and even better luck trying to bring down the bulk that is LenDale White. This box score is going to look like a Navy football game – run, run, and then run some more. Maybe a better question is what are the Bengals going to do to fix their offense? Sign Shaunna Alexander… Oh great, that’s going to work wonders! Sigh.

Big Names of Shame

Okay, maybe I won’t get all those things, but I will get great NFL players for less than their numbers insist. If you’re not picking at the top of your draft then you won’t get LT or AP. If you’re not the one guy making a first round mistake, Tom Brady won’t find his name on your roster either. But that’s okay; you can still dominate your league.

I’ve set up a little versus action below. I have a big name and a small name, both with very similar production and ability. A little comparison and contrast will help you on draft day. Pick the best player on the board, but don’t pick a name – this is a numbers game where sticks and stones don’t do jack and names will put you on your back.

Drew Brees VS David Garrard

From a distance, these two signal callers couldn’t be farther apart. Drew Brees is getting drafted in the 3rd round of most fantasy drafts for the second straight season, while David Garrard, though finally being picked in fantasy drafts, is garnering a 9th round pick on average, or is just about the 94th player taken in Yahoo drafts.

But when you break down the fantasy ability of these two players, things get a little closer. Drew Brees may have the flashier numbers, sure, 28 touchdowns compared to just 18 for Garrard, and 4428 passing yards compared to Garrard’s 2509. You’d think Brees produced a much better fantasy season than David. Not by as much as you’d think. See, Garrard played in just 12 games, counting the game he got hurt. So, his 211 fantasy points over 12 games becomes a lot closer to Brees’ 302.

In fact, Garrard’s points per game total (17.58) was just about one point behind Drew’s total of 18.8 points per game. You might think that Brees is more of a sure thing, and you are probably right, but when it comes to taking Brees or Garrard, you might want to consider the type of receiver you can get in the 3rd round compared to the 9th round. TJ Houshmandzadeh, Colston, Holt, Shad Johnson, Plaxico, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker are all 3rd round picks while Joey Galloway, Cotchery, Santana Moss, and Anthony Gonzalez are all 9th round receivers.

Garrard may still be a little behind Brees, but last year was his first campaign as a starter and he likely has yet to reach his pinnacle. And in my mind, he’s a much better value around the 9th round than Brees is in the 3rd.

Peyton Manning VS Jake Delhomme

Okay, so this comparison isn’t going to trick many people – heck, I’d even take Manning over Delhomme, but for the price, Jake has to be more worthy of a selection. Jake is coming off a major surgery but, get ready for this Colts fans, so is Peyton. In fact, Peyton’s infection in his knee has me more worried about lingering effects then Jake’s elbow. But lets leave injuries aside for just a second and get back to a numbers game.

There was only one quarterback in the NFL that had more fantasy points per game than Jake Delhomme did last season. Yes, you guessed it, Tom Brady. An I know he only played in three games, but Jake put up 24 points per game last season, better than Manning (20.6), Romo (22.2), Big Ben (20.8), or any other quarterback without an S on his chest like Tom.

When you factor in that Manning is getting selected as the 12th pick overall and Delhomme is riding 108 down the street, Jake gets even prettier. In 2004 and 2005 (his last two seasons in which he played all 16 games) Jake tossed 29 and 24 touchdowns respectively. He threw 8 in three games last season.

Listen, I’m not going to say that Manning isn’t a good bet to put up great numbers, he’s the definition of consitency, but Jake has had some nice seasons too, and the additions of Jonathan Stewart, D.J. Hackett and Mushin Muhammad are three more reasons to expect big things out of the Carolina signal caller.

Reggie Bush VS Frank Gore

Okay, I’m kind of cheating here because Reggie Bush and Frank Gore are both big names, and in reality, Reggie is a much bigger name than Frank – but not in fantasy circles apparently. In Yahoo Averages Reggie Bush is getting selected as the 62nd player overall while Frank Gore is getting taken in the 1st round of almost every single league, getting picked in the top 10 in most drafts. It doesn’t seem to matter if it’s a PPR league or a non-PPR league, Gore is still getting selected an average of 4-5 rounds ahead of Reggie.

I like Gore and think his upside this season is grand, but for the first time in his football career, I think people are undervaluing Reggie Bush. In leagues that don’t award points per reception (PPR) Bush still finished just 1 point per game played behind Gore – (10.4 to 11.5). In PPR leagues, it’s Bush that holds a 4 point per game played average over Gore. Now I know Frank played through some injuries during the season, and the 49er offense was abysmal, but Reggie had some struggles too and eventually went out for the season after his 12th game of the year.

Reggie was expected to change the face of the league, be one of the best running backs of all time, and sprint all over the field like Walter and Barry Sanders and LT. And he’s obviously not that type of football player and this season people are out to call Reggie Bush a bust. He hasn’t looked great in the pre-season, but I still expect him to have a solid season, much better than the 60th pick overall.

I would still rank Frank ahead of Reggie, but if you can wait and get Reggie in the 5th or 6th round, you’ve found yourself a steal. Reggie will always be a big part of the Saints offense and if you are in a PPR league, ride Reggie’s bad hype and grab him late, he won’t disappoint.

Earnest Graham VS Steven Jackson

It may be tough to call out Steven Jackson’s bum year in 2007, but I’m not willing to make him the 3rd overall pick in Drafts right now. He’s a question mark, holding out from camp and such, and he’s coming off a very bad season (like most Rams in ’07). I think he’s better than the Jackson we saw in ’07, but to get his services you are blowing a Top 5 overall pick. To garner Earnest Graham’s name on your roster, you can usually wait until the 8th round. To be safe, really go for it and grab him in the 7th. Graham didn’t become a full time starter until Week 7 against the Lions, and he really took off from there.

At 5’9” and 215 lbs, Earnest plays a lot bigger than he is. He can really catch the ball (49 grabs for 330 yards on the season) and he had 5 or more catches in 5 of his last 10 games. Graham rushed the ball 222 times for 898 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry behind an exciting young offensive line in Tampa Bay. Despite not starting and getting big carry totals until later in the year, but still playing in 15 total games, Graham still averaged just two points less per game than Steven Jackson did in Steven’s 12 contests. He produced more fantasy points on less touches (275 for Jackson 271for Graham) though, which should further explain what I’m trying to say.

Steven Jackson has shown what he can do, and he’ll always get selected ahead of Graham as long as he’s in the league, but Graham is a much better value and even has a chance at out-producing Steven over a 16 game season.

Some people are worried about Caddy Williams coming back and stealing touches, but I wouldn’t let that bog me down. Graham has produced better than Williams ever has, and he just signed a new contract that should keep him toting the ball in Tampa. 3rd or 80th – you make the decision.

Wes Welker VS Anquan Boldin

This is a trick because these guys are both steals and you can get them consistently after grabbing guys like Torry Holt and Plaxico BUrress. First of all, Boldin always produces at an unreal pace when he’s on the field. He’s been a little injury prone, but the bottom line is that Matt Leinart loves to throw him the ball, you know, because he fights like hell and always makes a lot out of a little, and he’s always good. He’s getting picked later because Larry Fitz has been overshadowing him for the last couple of seasons, but don’t feel bad about taking him as your #1 or #2 wideout, he’ll produce like one.

Wes Welker isn’t getting much credit for his 112 catch performance from a year ago, but I don’t see why not. Many people don’t expect those numbers again, and I must say, I don’t think he’ll mirror those numbers either – I think he’ll increase his totals across the board. 120 grabs for 1200 yards and 10 scores wouldn’t stun me at all. Listen, the Patriots don’t go sign career special teamers to big long contracts for no reason – they knew what they were doing when they snagged Welker from the Dolphins. New England had a tough time getting Moss singed again, but Welker is already locked away. What does that tell you? You might not have expected Welker to produce like he did, but the Patriots sure did. That should mean something.

Yeah, I do what I want, even change up my own articles and throw the rules right out the window. It’s good to be me.

So there it is, a few versus games that should get you going. All I’m saying is, just because your team looks great on paper doesn’t mean they’ll produce like Fantasy Champs. Believe in the little guy and you shall be set free!