Week 17 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Yet another week with a solid Elite Pick section, this time going up 12 units…. However, I didn’t do so well with my bottom half, but did enough to finish even over the final week.

Saturday’s Game…

New England (-13) @ N.Y. Giants: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: WSEX)

Each team played their best all game long. I never really saw that coming from the Giants. I hope it comes back to haunt them next week. I’ll tell you what though, they looked pretty damn good on Saturday Night, it’s probably the best they’ve played all season long. If they can run like that and cover like that, they will be a handful for any team in the NFC – that is my honest opinion – and I think they are the most overrated team in the whole 12 team playoff group.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

That extra point just did it for me. But this game was going to be close, and that’s why I didn’t break the bank with this bet. It was one of the 3 Free Picks I actually won, what can you do? The Eagles got a big game through the air from Donovan McNabb, and many wonder if that will be D’s last game in the city that booed him, loved him, and booed him again. Ah, good old Philadelphia. All I know is, this game was way to close to bet a bunch one, but I’ll take the small win when I can get it. I knew 5Dimes +9 spread was going to help me out.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

This game was close all the way down to the last few minutes. The Panthers were up 1 for most of the 4th quarter, and I thought I was going to walk away with a win despite Tampa resting what seemed to be their entire team for the entire freaking game. Carolina put a late touchdown over the goal line and they took the game by 8. There’s a reason I wasn’t a big fan of this game. The Panthers still proved to me that they can barely beat a team of back-ups, and the Bucs still proved that they could care less about the last couple games of the regular season. Blast!

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Green Bay Packers: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I flat out missed this game. I thought the Lions would play with a little more want-to in Green Bay, and they just stunk it up from the get go. The Lions were back to turning the ball over, and Brett Favre threw 2 early touchdowns and was 9 for 11 throwing the ball early. You could tell, he wanted to win, and he wanted to put on a show for the home fans. Does he know something we don’t? Favre’s 2 scores gave him 28 on the season, marking the 10th time he’s thrown for 27 or more touchdowns during his career. That’s magic. It was the first time he’s thrown more than 20 in his last 3 seasons. The Lions sucked again. Nice way to end your season, fellas.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

Shaun Alexander had his best day that I can remember, rushing 8 times for 31 yards and a touchdown… That’s almost 4 yards a carry – wow! The Hawks didn’t play much defense, as they chose to rest up at that position. Either way, this game came down to the last few plays, even having the Hawks recover an onside kick with just under a minute left. It was nullified by an off-sides penalty, and they didn’t get the next one. This marks one of the many times I’ve missed the Hawks games this season. The Falcons got a great game (4 TDs) from Chris Redman, as the whole offense played pretty well. Another close game that I just missed.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-6): loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jets were up 7 for most of the game until Brodie Croyle stepped out of sucking for just long enough to toss a touchdown pass to Jeff Webb with under 3 minutes to play. At that point, I knew my covering dreams were over. Sure enough, the Jets came down and kicked a field goal in overtime, and I missed another close one. Dang it!

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Cardinals came out and obliterated the Rams early and often. Kurt Warner threw for 3 touchdowns, which gave him 27 on the season. The old man obviously still has some success in that old arm of his, 27 scores is no laughing number. Anyway, the Rams just didn’t come to play, rolling around like a team looking for a better draft pick. The loss gave them just 3 wins on the year, and a sure-fire #2 overall selection. So, instead of being tied with four other teams with a 4-12 mark, they get to have #2 all to themselves. Sounds like a brilliant reason to lose to me, if they were trying to or not. The win also got the Cardinals to 8-8, and yet another off-season of, “The Seahawks better look out, because the Cardinals are on the rise, they are everyone’s sleeper to find the playoffs next season… blah, blah, blah…” Maybe I’ll even write some of that stuff?

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (-10): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The 49ers didn’t roll over, and the Browns didn’t need to win this game at all. But for some reason, 10-6 feels a lot better than 9-7, and the Browns rolled out with their starters and did enough damage to cover without much trouble (20-7). Derek Anderson did get hurt though, and while it might not be much, Brady Quinn looked good in relief. Will the Browns re-sign Anderson and pay starter money to two quarterbacks? It should be interesting during the off-season, Anderson had one heck of a season.

Elite Picks for Week 17 – Up 12 Units! – Another good week with my elite picks!

Best Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

Baltimore came out with a lot more intensity than I expected, maybe they knew something I didn’t. Looking back on it, maybe they had heard their coach would be canned, and they were so damn excited they took it to the Steelers, who still had something to win. That being said, the Steelers are looking weak heading into the playoffs, and they don’t get a very kind opening game as Jacksonville comes to town.

NFL Action Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Denver Broncos: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Broncos came out and smacked the Vikes around a little bit, ending Minnesota’s playoff chances even before they were eliminated with the Redskins win over the Cowboys. Minnesota’s run game sputtered down the stretch, and everyone knows that their passing game wasn’t going to get them any wins in December.

NFL Top San Diego Chargers (-8) @ Oakland Raiders: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

“The Chargers actually have something on the line in this game. With a win, they will hold a home field playoff game against the likes of either Cleveland or Tennessee. With a loss, they could very well end up hosting the Jaguars, known by at least me as one of the best teams in football. My feeling is they’ll go out and try to end this game early and snatch up that Brown/Titan opponent, and allow the Steelers a shot at Jacksonville. Also, a win here would keep them away from New England until the AFC Title game, something I’m sure they’d like to accomplish.” Apparently I was right about this one. The Chargers kept most of their starters in for the duration of the game, and even Norv Turner was quoted saying that if the game was on the line late, LT would be in until the end. They didn’t need him that late, as the Chargers took over in the 2nd half.

NFL Action New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Chicago Bears: loss
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The Saints are brutal, just like I thought, and Kyle Orton is a winner, just look at his numbers. The Bears need to get back to what won them games, and I get the feeling they’ll figure it out next year. They beat me here, those blasted Bears.

NFL Top Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: BoDog)

One of my biggest bets of the year panned out, despite many worries late into the game. Even without Vince Young, the Titans had enough to take down the Colts backups by 6 points, covering the spread by a mere point and a half. A wins a win, but how do a bunch of backups put up that kind of a fight against a team that needs a win to get in?

NFL Action Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

“The Jaguars have absolutely nothing to play for, and unlike the other great teams in the AFC, they’ll be playing a tough-nosed game against either the Chargers or the Steelers on the road next week. That means they’ll need their rest. I think the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league, and actually think they have a legitimate chance to oust even the best in the game, but this weekend against Houston is a throw away game, and I’m willing to bet that Gary Kubiak is doing his damnedest to motivate his boys to win their final game of the year. I like Houston here.” This one seemed easy, and it ended up being exactly that. The Jaguars just weren’t trying to win, and despite a lot of points on the board from their backup offense, their 2nd string defense couldn’t stop a Texans team that looked motivated to find .500.

NFL Best Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Pinnacle)

“Yes, the Bengals are in a sea of disarray, but the Dolphins have just one win on the season, traded away their best receiver, watched their best player go down for the year with a knee injury, and many of the guys already see the writing on the wall. The Bengals may be the most disappointing team of 2007, but I still think they’ll come out punching the Dolphins in the mouth, and trying to prove that they aren’t a complete sack of junk.” The Bengals made it interesting, giving up 15 points in the 4th quarter, but they pulled through with relative ease, taking down Miami by 13 points.

NFL Best Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-9): win
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: TheGreek)

I get this funny feeling that the Cowboys will regret not trying harder to ouste the Redskins before the playoffs began. This Washington team has a lot of momentum coming into the playoffs, and if they can get past their first playoff test, they’ll really be a team to reckon with. This was a nice win.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 17

Last Week of the season – I had a nice Pay Picks week last week, but struggled with my free plays once again. This week looks a little more simple, and I expect a winning system out of both my free and pay picks. That is why I’m just going to publish them all for you to see. Good luck, and lets go out with a bang!

Saturday’s Game…


New England (-13)
@ N.Y. Giants:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: WSEX)

What can I say? Maybe I’m a guy that wants to see the Patriots go undefeated so I don’t have to ever listen to interviews of the “perfect Dolphins” ever again – hell, I’ll even admit it, yeah, I am that guy, and I don’t want to hear what Don Shula has to say. But I am also a smart guy that sees a Giants team that will almost surely crumble under pressure anyway, and when they feel themselves doing exactly that, will most likely take their free get out of the game card and begin to rest their starters. The Giants aren’t good, and the Patriots are one of the best teams of all time. I don’t see New England walking into this game and struggling at all. This tank of a team will roll into the post season with a big win on Saturday Night.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The Eagles are playing well, and the Bills have struggled down the stretch, but I’m not so sure the Eagles will come out and play with passion in the final week of a season where they aren’t competing for anything but a win. In fact, I’m willing to bet that the Bills make a strong push at winning this game, despite the way McNabb and this offense have been playing. Trent Edwards and this group of young Bills are building toward next season, and a big win to end the year is always a perfect way to do that. At 5Dimes, the line is 9, and that is way too much for an inconsistent Eagles team that doesn’t have anything to play for.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The Bucs really stunk it up last week against the 49ers, but the Panthers are bad, and I think even without Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway, the Bucs will do enough to down the horrible Panthers. Steve Smith is finally getting the ball a little bit for the Panthers, but the Bucs have good smart defensive players all over the field, and I think they’ll shut down the Panthers in Tampa.

Detroit Lions (+5) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I just don’t think Green Bay’s starters will play much of this game, despite the overall feeling that the Packers need to end the season on a good note after struggling mightily against the Bears last week. Green Bay is already in, they already have a bye set up, and even though Brett will probably play a couple quarters in this game, I just think the Lions really want to get to .500 after failing to make the playoffs despite a great start. Jon Kitna is a solid quarterback, and a leader that rarely allows his team to give up. They’ll play hard in Green Bay, and probably pull out a win to end the year.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

I’m sorry to say it (actually I don’t care that much at all) but the Falcons are a dead franchise right now. They have a coach that won’t be there next year. A group of quarterbacks that will almost surely be dedicated to backup duty next year. A bunch of veterans that could be cut or traded in the off-season, and a complete organization that lost out on hiring Bill Parcells and has no idea what they are going to do moving forward. I know that Hawks don’t have much to play for, but I have to be honest, Seneca Wallace and the Hawks backup players are a group I’d favor over Atlanta’s lost team. And honestly, I get the feeling that the Hawks are going to play their starters longer than many think. This game seems too easy to me. That’s what scares me. Just for careful’s sake, I’m laying just a medium bet on this game this week – I’m not the best at picking Seattle games anyway, but I just can’t stay away from this one.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

This is a weak play, if a play at all. But since I pick them all, I’m rolling with Chad Pennington in this one. He’s pretty much competing for a job somewhere else next year, and he’s accurate and competitive enough to give the Chiefs some problems on Sunday. The Jets didn’t play well at all last year, but their strong push last week in a loss to Tennessee impressed me. They didn’t put up much in terms of points, but they did play strong defensively. If the Jets can effectively stop the Titans who are doing anything they can to get to the playoffs, then yeah, I think the Chiefs should be an easy win in the final week.

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

I like the home team in this one, but just barely. I’d like to think that Ken Whisenhunt will get his guys read to play, and Kurt Warner is still petitioning for a starting gig somewhere next season. The Cardinal play inspired football at home, and they are relatively healthy offensively and still can be solid from time to time on the defensive side of the ball. I like both these teams in the future, and think both will play a solid game, I just think the Cardinals will have more to play for and a coach that will get all that he can from them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns (-10):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Bodog)

The 49ers have played solid football over the last couple weeks, and Frank Gore seems to be healthy and running had – but the Browns have a whole heck of a lot more to win and lose on this game, and they are just that much better than San Fran, even with the Niners playing better as of late. Derek Anderson is a free agent at season’s end, and even though he’ll almost surely be back in Cleveland, you can bet he’ll want to play extra well with his future in the crosshairs. I’m expecting Cleveland to put up a bunch of points on way to this victory, if it’s in vein or not.

Elite Picks for Week 17

*4 NFL Best Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Ravens are done, and they’re even more upset that their lame duck head coach is back in the saddle next season. They have a bunch of playoff hungry vets that have no chance at getting to the show this season, and that has crushed this teams’ will. A lot of changes look to be coming next season, and the frustrations has already begun to show. The Steelers still need to win for playoff seeding and the right to possibly skip Jacksonville in the 1st round. Even if Big Ben doesn’t play, Charlie Batch has proven he can get the job done, and the Ravens are bad enough to make me believe he has a very good chance. Just a field goal? Yeah, I like the Steel-Show a lot, here.

*3 NFL Action Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Denver Broncos:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

Everybody wants to say that Denver is ready to get back and win to end the season after the whole Phillip Rivers incident last week against San Deigo, but it’s just not going to happen. The Vikings are way too physical for the Broncos defensive front, their running backs are too talented, and they need a win to get into the playoffs. They need more than just a win, but a win gives them a chance, and I believe, that after last week’s slip up to the Redskins, they’ll at least want to go out swinging. I like their chances in Denver, and think they should absolutely obliterate the Broncos on Sunday.

*5 NFL Top San Diego Chargers (-8) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Chargers actually have something on the line in this game. With a win, they will hold a home field playoff game against the likes of either Cleveland or Tennessee. With a loss, they could very well end up hosting the Jaguars, known by at least me as one of the best teams in football. My feeling is they’ll go out and try to end this game early and snatch up that Brown/Titan opponent, and allow the Steelers a shot at Jacksonville. Also, a win here would keep them away from New England until the AFC Title game, something I’m sure they’d like to accomplish. Too much on the line for San Diego to roll over, and the Raiders aren’t good enough to halt what’s coming, even if their #1 pick, JaMarcus Russell, is getting his first start in the NFL.

*3 NFL Action New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

I’m not a big Saints fan, but I have to be honest, they have to beat the Bears in Chicago, right? Kyle Orton isn’t a frightening young quarterback, despite his warewolf beard. He doesn’t make as many mistakes as the other Bear quarterbacks, but I don’t think he’ll put up enough points to fight off a Saints team that actually has a small sliver of hope left. Chicago’s secondary is still a huge question mark, despite the way they played last week against Green Bay. They won’t have two great weeks in a row, they just aren’t good enough to do so.

*6 NFL Top Tennessee Titans (-4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: BoDog)

The Colts have nothing to play for and the Titans can bring pressure. Expect Indy’s starters to play very little and the Titans to win this game by a couple touchdowns. Indy’s head coach has always believed in his own way, and risking his best players to end Tennessee’s season doesn’t seem like his prerogative. Strong action here.

*3 NFL Action Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jaguars have absolutely nothing to play for, and unlike the other great teams in the AFC, they’ll be playing a tough-nosed game against either the Chargers or the Steelers on the road next week. That means they’ll need their rest. I think the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league, and actually think they have a legitimate chance to oust even the best in the game, but this weekend against Houston is a throw away game, and I’m willing to bet that Gary Kubiak is doing his damnedest to motivate his boys to win their final game of the year. I like Houston here.

*4 NFL Best Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Miami Dolphins:
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: Pinnacle)

Yes, the Bengals are in a sea of disarray, but the Dolphins have just one win on the season, traded away their best receiver, watched their best player go down for the year with a knee injury, and many of the guys already see the writing on the wall. The Bengals may be the most disappointing team of 2007, but I still think they’ll come out punching the Dolphins in the mouth, and trying to prove that they aren’t a complete sack of junk. This isn’t the strongest play I have this weekend, but I like it enough to drop a few bucks on the Bengals in Miami.

Monday Night Football Game

*4 NFL Best Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-9):
(Line: Friday, 12:00pm EST: TheGreek)

This game seems easy enough. The Cowboys are pretty much cashing in their great regular season, and leasing a first round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They don’t need to win this game, and I don’t think we’ll see much of their 1st team talent on either side of the ball. No need to risk injury, even if it does mean strangling the playoff breath out of your rival. Todd Collins has played well since taking over for Jason Campbell, and the Redskins have dedicated their run toward the post season to their fallen teammate, Sean Taylor. They have a playoff spot to play for and a motivated group of guys ready to win. I think they’ll take this one by a couple touchdowns.

Week 16 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I was just 4-5 in my free picks for Week 16, but still finished well on the day, going 5-3 with my elite picks. I’m going to need to do this differently next year, selling my best picks and putting up my bottom half as free has been tough on my psyche – but anyway, this is where I won and loss on Sunday.

Thursday’s Game…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Rams started off right, but couldn’t hold it in against the Steelers. I am officially brutal on Thursday Night games since my Thanks Giving Day wins… The Steelers are looking bad, and while I do expect them to win in Week 17, I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t win another game this season. With Willie Parker out, the pressure will be all over Big Ben.

Saturday’s Game…

Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Panthers made this a game while TO tumbled down with an ankle injury midway through the game. Dallas hasn’t impressed me much lately, and even though they won, I don’t think they’ll be taking any late season momentum with them into the playoffs. They do get a 1st round bye, however, and have plenty of talent to do damage in the 2nd Round after their bye.

Sunday’s Games…

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I can’t believe the Browns didn’t play tougher with the playoffs on the line. The Bengals came out and got as much revenge as they possibly could by almost completely knocking the Browns out of the playoffs as they spilt their season series with the Browns with a 19-14 win. Derek Anderson, who was great all year, threw 4 interceptions when his team needed him most. And I lost another free-pick. Blast.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears: loss
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

The Packers played absolutely terribly, and the Bears capitalized on every mistake that came their way. I think Chicago will regroup over the summer and come out ready to be a playoff team again in 2008-09. They have enough playmakers to make things work on defense, and offensively, they’re just a kick in the butt away from being decent.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5) win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

This was one of my best bets of the week, and it shows – it was one of my few wins in my free-picks section. The Jaguars just bulldogged the Jaguars to the tune of 49 points…. The Raiders milked 11 points from the Jaguars defense, and this was one of the most lopsided games of the season. Watch out for these Jaguars in the playoffs – not next week.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)

The Giants played well and took down the Bills. I really can’t figure out the Giants, all I know is that they need to run the ball more and cut down on younger Manning’s throws, because he is inaccurate and inconsistent – he’s in-just about everything – to be honest. The Giants’ defense has been the one saving grace for this team all season long.

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Colts put up 38 points over the first 3 quarters, and honestly, the Texans just came to Indiana on the wrong day. Indy was on fire in the first half, actually putting up 21 in the 2nd quarter alone. Peyton looks to be getting his touch back, something the Colts will desperately need if they are to win just one playoff game this season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Lions didn’t look good, but they won by 5, which if you add the two and carry the decimal three times, is just enough to make me a winner. ON this tough weekend, I needed anything I could get. I got a win. I still hate Mike Martz. He’ll be somewhere else in 2008, good thing for Roy Williams fans, because Martz decided he didn’t even want to use the guy after the first 5 weeks.

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?): win

The Hawks finally dominanted, and I would have taken this spread easily. The Ravens are terrible, decent, then terrible again. I don’t care what the Ravens’ brass continues to say about coach Billick – that guy will be looking for a new job no later than the first 4 games of next season, maybe even this year.

Monday Night Football Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9): win
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Chargers rubbed it in a little bit against the Broncos, so expect fireworks from these two teams next season. Champ Bailey talked some mess about Phillip Rivers after the game, and it’s not like that’s hard, the kid from NC State is throwing swollen marshmallow ducklings all over the field lately. The Broncos still couldn’t do much as LT and his backups shredded a piss-poor defense from Denver.

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 16

This Week’s Top Team: Championship Week – I feel inclined to do it up!

QB: Donovan McNabb vs. New Orleans: Just like last week, the Saints are still really brutal, and I expect Donovan to have his way with their secondary. I’m not sure what the distant future holds for McNabb, but this weekend shows promise.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver: denver is a terrible run defense, one of the bottom 3 in the NFL. LT is the best running back in the league. I’m not sure what his carries will look like, but I still think he’s a great start on Sunday.

RB: Earnest Graham vs. San Francisco: HE may not be a big name, but he’s a big time player, and the Bucs have been riding his hard running all the way to the playoffs. They’ll do it again on Sunday.

WR: Braylon Edwards vs. Cincinnati: I don’t see the Bengals doing much guarding of Braylon. He’s too fast and physical for them, and he’s proven to have that secondary’s number. Look for him to have a big game.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Miami: One more time, I’m going with the big receiver in New England. Brady’s close enough to the touchdown title that he might just make a run at it. Who’s his best option to get that done with? You bet.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Carolina: The Cowboys have to climb back with a good game here, don’t they? Witten is a go to guy for Romo, he’ll find him early and often.

K: David Akers vs. New Orleans: Good kicker, bad defense, in-doors. I like Akers’ chances this weekend, even though I’m terrible at picking kickers this year.

D: Jaguars vs. Oakland: Oakland is mistake prone and Jacksonville is very good. The Jaguar offense is very good at staying on the field which gives their defense ample time to rest. Good play here.

LUCKY’S Week 16 SLEEPERS

Sage Rosenfels: The Colts look like they’ve packed it in for the Playoffs, and Sage can put up good numbers in that offense, I might even start this guy in my fantasy championship.

Ron Dayne: What I said about Sage, but Dayne isn’t the biggest threat out there. But I have to give him his credit, he’s been solid when given the ball.

Frank Gore: Against the Bengals, I think Gore will get over the 100 yard plateau. He’s a very good back, he’s tough, and the Bengals don’t tackle well. Tough start for the young 49er, but he’ll be solid in this one.

Brandon Jacobs: When will the Giants realize that they need to give this kid the ball more? Jacobs is a beast, and all he does is succeed when given a high number of carries. Less Eli, more Brandon. Comprende?

Calvin Johnson: CJ is a physical freak of nature and he’s getting the majority of balls in Detroit’s offense. You have to like his chances against a Chiefs team that hasn’t been playing good football of late.

Roddy White: I expect a big bounce back game for Roddy.

Tony Scheffler: If you’ve paid attention, I like this kid a lot. I know he goes up against Denver, but there’s room in the middle of that secondary – Tony might just find it. s

Deion Branch: If running the ball isn’t going to work against the Panthers (last week) it definitely won’t work on Sunday. However, the Ravens secondary has been sketchy for a while now, and Branch could get his passes this week.

Buccaneers: I have to take the Bucs again, they had a big week against a terrible team last week, why not again against yet another horror of an NFL football team?

LUCKY’S Week 16 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: Ain’t nothing like watching Eli’s “Gummo” face watch his receivers drop passes – hilarious.

Clinton Portis: Welcome to Minnesota’s defensive line, the place where stud running backs come to die.

Lee Evans: The Giants do have a good pass rush, so don’t expect any deep routes from Evans on Sunday – that pretty much eliminates his whole game.

Donte Stallworth: I imagine the Patriots will show the Dolphins how much Wes Welker is worth on Sunday. That means less looks for Stallworth.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 16

16, and after a devastating Week 15, I have a muddy hill to climb to get back up and rolling. But there’s time, I just have to figure out who’s playing and who’s resting for the playoffs, or the off-season. There are some interesting dilemmas going into the week – this is how it looks from the LL highchair…

Thursday’s Game…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

I kind of like the Money Line in St. Louis with the Rams. This has the feeling of one of those games for me. The Steelers have to think they’re going to go into St. Louis and correct some of the things that has them tumbling down the stretch, especially against a Rams team that has nothing to play for. Well, the Rams can be tough, and especially against a secondary that is allowing passing touchdowns like grocery stores give away turkeys three days after Thanks Giving. Tory Holt and the Rams receiving crew can put up some points, and don’t expect the Steelers to just click it back on away from Pittsburgh. They aren’t a good away team, and the pressure is building on these underachievers. I know the Rams have nothing to play for, but sometimes that helps, and though I’ve been bad with my Thursday Night NFL Network games, I think I might be on to something with this one.

Saturday’s Game…

Dallas Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Cowboys have to come back strong after their pathetic outing last week against the Eagles – and the Panthers have to meander back to terrible after beating the Hawks in Carolina last week. Too much ups and downs last week for things not to get back to the way they should be with a big Dallas victory over Matt Moore and the Panthers. This game feels too easy.

Sunday’s Games…

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Bengals are lost. I won’t put all the money in the world on this game, only because the Browns kind of embarrassed the Bengals defense last time these two saw each other, and Cinci will come out playing tough because of that. But in the end, I still think the Bengals don’t have enough consistency on offense, and that will be their undoing at home against the Brownies.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)

I want to take the Bears in Chicago as a team trying to prove a point, but their season is over and the Packers could have everything (#1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs) working for them if they win this game and the right pieces fall into place. Of course, that would mean that the Cowboys lost in Carolina (highly unlikely) but if that happens on Saturday, this is a nobrainer bet on Sunday. Right now, I wouldn’t make a huge play on this game. However, since I have to make my picks early in the week, taking the Packers here when games still matter for them, over a team that accounts for one of their two losses, seems like a good bet. As a common rule, it’s usually smart to take a good team over another team that they lost to earlier in the year.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

I also like the Over in Jacksonville, but think this should get out of hand right away. The Raiders won’t have their best running option in as Justin Fargas is out for the rest of the season. They will have yet another interesting quarterbacking situation that should allow the Jaguars to rest their starters after the 3rd quarter. That beings said, I think Kiffin and company will put up a couple scores, and the total is only 38.5. The Jags running backs might account for 4 scores all by their lonesome on Sunday. Big spread, but I like it this week in Jacksonville, especially because the Jaguars still need wins to be playing in Jacksonville during Week 1 of the post season.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)

The Bills are better than the Giants. The Bills are the underdogs. The Bills are playing at home. The Giants have been playing terrible. The Bills are tough and the Giants aren’t. The Bills want to win, the Giants have Elmer Fudd playing quarterback. I don’t know if there’s anything else needed in this one. This seems like a great bet to me.

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)

The Colts didn’t seem to care much about winning last week, and I don’t think they’ll put out a full effort doing so this week, either. I don’t think the Colts will play their starters for much of the game, and that gives a distinct advantage to the Texans, even though they haven’t been the most consistent team lately. One thing they do have is they played the Colts tough earlier in the season, and they usually find away to put up a pretty good fight against their conference rival. I like the Texans and a big fat 9 from 5Dimes this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Lions have to turn it around in this game. The Chiefs have been pretty lackadaisical and the Lions play pretty solid football at home. Word on the street is that Larry Johnson might play, but I don’t see that as a start that would change this game any way or the other. Sure, LJ is a beast, but that offensive line isn’t strong enough to blow up a run defense, and the passing game in KC just doesn’t scare opposing defenses, which probably plays to the Lions strengths. I’m taking the Lions, even though there’s no shot they reach Jon Kitna’s prediction.

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?):

At my due date, this game still doesn’t have an active line at any sportsbook that I know about. Therefore, I just won’t bet the game. I would take the Hawks straight up, but can’t really even get close to imagining what kind of line these guys are going to come up with in this game. I’m not sure what the game means to Seattle, but I’m also pretty sure that Troy Smith has a slower release, this is his second game ever, and he’s going up against one of the best secondaries in the league. Also, the Ravens offense just plain stinks. I expect Willis McGahee to get his fair share of touches in this game.

Monday Night Football Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Chargers are hitting pretty well on all cylinders right now, and I like their chances against a Broncos team that has really played like donkey poop all season long. I don’t know what happened to Shanny’s bunch this time around, but it looks pretty bad when Denver can’t even run the ball. The only chance they have is Brandon Marshall, and the Chargers’ Antonio Cromartie is just the physical freak of an athlete to match-up with Marshall. LT, Turner, Sproles and the Charger rushing attack should eat up the Broncos run defense, or lack there of. Seems like an easy pick, even with the big spread.

Week 15 NFL Picks Review: 2007

I don’t want to talk about it…

Thursday’s Game…

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

How bad are the Broncos? On Thursday, they were horrendous.

Saturday’s Game…

Cincinnati Bengals (-8) @ San Francisco 49ers: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

“The bottom line is, the Bengals are bad, but can they be this bad?” Let me replace my original answer to this question “I don’t think so” with “yes, and actually, they are even worse than this bad, they are brutal.”

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I’m going to blame this game on the snow. 8-0, it was close until the last minute, and obviously, the Bills always had a chance, they just couldn’t stop making snow angels during key plays – damn kids.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+10): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Can I blame this one on the snow? I felt smart when I saw the score nearing halftime in this one. Then I felt dumb when I saw the final tally.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

“The Jaguars are the better team. I saw a scouting site that already has a mock NFL draft ready to go, and they said the Jaguars are looking for a quarterback early – puh-lease! David Garrard is everything this team has every wanted, and everything they need for the future. He plays ball control offense, is smart, and takes care of the football. He is a threat to throw deep, hit outs, and run the ball if need be. He’s physical and fast. Perfect for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are just playing inspired football right now, and the Steelers have been brutal the last four games or so. They didn’t have a chance last week, and while they will play better at home, I still think they fall to the Jags this Sunday. This should be a close game, and I think it will come down to the wire, but I like the 4 points with one of the best teams in football.” Bingo – it’s nice to win one or two here and there.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-24): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I don’t think the Jets are good enough to finish anywhere close to the Patriots if Tom Brady doesn’t have one of his worst football games I can remember. He was wild, his timing was off, and he didn’t throw a touchdown pass. After Kellen Clemens threw a pick-6 with his first pass, I thought this was going to be one of those. I was wrong, tricked all the way, and the Pats stayed undefeated but lost ATS again.

Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) @ Oakland Raiders: loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I have to take the big away fa”vorite here, and I don’t like it all that much.” The Colts just didn’t show up. Their running game was bad, and there’s no excuse for that against the Raiders, a team that has been brutal against the run. I didn’t like this game much to start, and that was because I didn’t know if the Colts would show for this game. I’ll pick against them next week.

Philadelphia Eagles (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys: win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Thank you Brian Westbrook for being too smart for my fantasy team to win. Down on the half yard line, lost in a tie-breaker. Jerk. At least I won this game, that’s always a nice thing.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Dec 15

Semi-finals y’all – don’t get caught playing on the side court next week, get your good players in and celebrate your spot in the finals, and a sure money back chance with a nice cold 6 pack of Robitussin… Championship!

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

5 guys, 3 starting spots, who do you choose between these 4 stars – can start 2 RBs and 2WRs or 1 RB and 3 WRs – I’m already starting LT – not a PPR league. Travis Henry vs. Houston, Earnest Graham vs. Atlanta, Plaxico Burress vs. Washington, Roddy White vs. Tampa Bay, and Deion Branch vs. Carolina. Help? – Chicken Little from the Wood

Mr. Little, I’d start with Earnest Graham as a must start in that grouping. That pushes Travis Henry out, and while he could have a big game against the Texans, there’s also a chance that he doesn’t get enough touches, and thus doesn’t produce many points. Now you’re choosing between White, Branch, and Burress. I’d go with Plax, even though he’s always an injury problem and Eli Manning stinks, he’s still going up against a mediocre Redskins’ secondary and he’s the only guy who is tall enough to grab Eli’s passes. Tampa Bay is a tough match-up for the Falcons, but I think White is more of a sure thing to get 8-10 balls thrown his way in that game than Branch is in Carolina. The coaching change is interesting, because it was Patrino’s style that got White’s numbers flying. Branch is tough to predict, he has up and down games, and though he is going up against a porous secondary in Carolina, that doesn’t always mean big things from Seattle’s supposed #1. I’d say that is a toss up, and I’d take White because of his size and touchdown potential in a game that could see a lot of passing by the Falcons.

I have Jamal Lewis and Marshawn Lynch – they go head to head this weekend, and while I like the Browns to pull that one out, Lynch has to be the better option, right? – Paige White from Ohio

He doesn’t have to be, but yes, I think he is. The Bills have impressed me defensively, limiting most opponents’ rushing attack, and tackling well all season long. Lewis is not the crumbling-slow and injured back he’s been over the last two years, though, he’s be solid over the last few games, running like the Ja-Lewis of old. I just like Lynch against a pathetic Browns defense, but neither guy is a bad option this weekend. You’d think Lynch would get more and more carries after his injury, and while he split about 50-50 last week, he will probably get 75% of the touches this week. Big game for both teams, should be a dandy, but I’d take the younger back.

Is Brady going to lead me to a title? – Rorry in New Orleans

I sure hope so, buddy – you and me both. I don’t know about this weekend, apparently the weather is going to shrink his numbers. Or so they say. Honestly, I’d never sit Brady, even if he were playing against the Devil’s forces from the underworld. The guy is magic, and a little snow and wind shouldn’t kill his chances to find a fantastic receiving corps amongst a rather inefficient Jets defense. I thin people pay too much attention to wind and rain, etc, but who knows, maybe Kurt Warner against the Saints is a better option this week. I will ride it out with Tom, though, as I could take losing if Tom didn’t produce, but I would probably quit FF if I picked Warner over Brady and lost because of it. Go with the best single passing season every, and win it for the gipper!

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 15

This Week’s Top Team: 140? Not quite, but I had a few guys that did some damage. 82 whole points… Okay, so I had a down week.QB: Kurt Warner vs. New Orleans: 233 yards and 3 touchdowns for Kurt – If I would have listened to myself, I would have started Kurt over Tony Romo and Tom Brady and won my fantasy semi-final game. As is, I just have to play in the 3rd place game. Cool, $40! 23 points for the old guy.

RB: Joseph Addai vs. Oakland: 9 points… The Raiders held the Colts pretty much in check, as Indy just didn’t show up. 44 rushing ayrds, 33 receiving yards, and 1 two points rush that almost got one of the most consistent backs in the league to double digits. Good lord, 9 points.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Detroit: 23 fantasy points for my man LT, in just over a half of football. That’s what I like to see, his backup ended up with more fantasy points that he did. Either way, 23 is nice.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Philadelphia: 37 yards receiving, all in the last quarter I think. Definitely the last half. How can the Cowboys be this bad in a pretty important game? Well, I blame that hot girl in the box seats. 3 points for Too…

WR: Greg Jennings vs. St. Louis: 66 yards receiving and a 44 yards (long) touchdown for a total of, 14 points. You bet. Jennings has turned into quite the catch, and I love it.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Detroit: Gates put up 1 catch for 8 yards. If you do the math, carry the 1, yes, that’s 0 points for the big guy, and his team put up close to half a century. Pass? Anyone?

K: Phil Dawson vs. Buffalo: 2 field goals, 7 points, once again, not a big day, but I couldn’t jinx the Browns into losing – a total failure once again.

D: Vikings vs. Chicago: 13 points from the Vikings, and had they given me 14, I would have won my semi-final game in my fantasy league. Jerks.

LUCKY’S Week 15 SLEEPERS

Trent Edwards: 5 points for Trent, and it was definitely my bad playing the youngster in a big ass snow storm that was almost painful to watch. 8-0 was the score – yikes. F.

Kenton Keith: This pick didn’t pan out as the Colts looked terrible, their running game looked terrible, and they barely beat the Raiders, so Keith didn’t get many carries. Damn. F

Frank Gore: 129 rushing yards for Frank, and so many people sat him because of his poor season. This kid is good, and he put up some solid points for me. B

Shaunna Alexander: 17 carries… 17 yards… Yeah, that’s one of those things you don’t want to match up. I hate watching Shaunna run, and I was definitely tricked into this sleeper selection. FFF

Lee Evans: He played in a snow bowl for a team that scored 0 and he still ended up with 40 yards – not too bad considering, but another bad choice by me. C-

Roddy White: 0 yards and 0 points for the top Falcons wideout – yes, the Bucs put a lock down on Roddy. F

Tony Scheffler: 100 yards and a touchdown, that’s what I’m talking about, finally! A+

Anthony Gonzalez: 86 yards and a touchdown for the rookie out of Ohio State – don’t be surprised when this kid steps right in and takes Marvin’s spot when Harrison is done. A

Buccaneers: The Bucs put up 26 points for me, and if I would have started them over the Vikings in my fantasy league, I would have won instead of losing in the Semi’s because of a tie-breaker… A+

LUCKY’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: He’s still bad.

Samkon Gado: 18 carries, 43 yards, a touchdown that helps his 0-for team get a win – I’ll just praise the young kid and say this, he scored more points that I thought he would, but 18 for 43 seems about right.

Laveranues Coles: Coles ended up playing like a snap, and broke my heart in more than one situation. But at least I was right on here.

Todd Heap: That whole, “He’s going to play” skit was a just a slap in the face for any fantasy owner that picked Heap high, held on to him all season long, and played him in the playoffs. He ended up not playing. What a sandy-panties.

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 15

This Week’s Top Team: The search for 140…. I was sooo close last week, and AP pulled a 0… Lets see if I can’t get it done.

QB: Kurt Warner vs. New Orleans: How about the idea that the Saints would be the worst rated defense in the league if they didn’t play 6 games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Carolina – you bet. The saints give up points like they’re free, and Kurt will dominate the world on Sunday.

RB: Joseph Addai vs. Oakland: Oakland’s offensive line is terrible and you can bet Addai will get the rock plenty with Indy being careful for the playoffs. I don’t know how many looks he’ll get in the 2nd half, as I imagine this game won’t be too close for too long, but I’d imagine 3 quarters of work will be just what I was looking for in terms of fantasy production.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Detroit: I have to ride LT’s hot streak out. He’s the best player in the league, and he’s trying to get his team going into the playoffs. This is a closer for them, and Detroit hasn’t been stellar at stopping anyone lately.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Philadelphia: I know the Eagles will be hell bent on doing up TO after Owens torched them for a billion yards last time these two met up, but I just don’t think you can stop TO when he’s focused, and with all the Keyshawn talk, the Bill Parcells chatter, and the fact that he’s playing Philly this week – huge stuff, son.

WR: Greg Jennings vs. St. Louis: Jennings is in a tough situation with a platoon, Brett throw to everyone, scheme – but I like his chances against a mediocre Rams secondary in a game that the Packers really want to win. Jennings is tough, and knows how to make touchdowns happen.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Tennessee: I have to love Gates against he Lions, even with Phillip powder-puffing him the ball. He’s always open this guy, even with a strained groin.

K: Phil Dawson vs. Buffalo: He’ll have a bad day, because I picked him, but the question is, can I jinx the Browns into a home loss to the Bills?

D: Vikings vs. Chicago: The Bears have gotten worse and worse against the run, and they play the best rushing team in the NFL this Monday Night. Chicago just lost two more defensive lineman to the IR, but their offense is even more questionable. They can’t really run, and now Kyle Orton is under center – the 3rd option in Chicago for God’s sake. What does that tell you?

LUCKY’S Week 15 SLEEPERS

Trent Edwards: Trent is accurate, the Browns secondary is wide open – this should be a second great fantasy week in a row for the young Buffalo Bill.

Kenton Keith: This pick is expecting that the Colts tear down the Raiders pretty easily. If that is the case, Keith will get 12-18 carries, and that means big yardage against a very bad Raiders defensive front.

Frank Gore: Against the Bengals, I think Gore will get over the 100 yard plateau. He’s a very good back, he’s tough, and the Bengals don’t tackle well. Tough start for the young 49er, but he’ll be solid in this one.

Shaunna Alexander: I hate to do it, but I’m actually expecting a decent day out of the former touchdown machine. 80 yards and a touchdown, is that asking too much? We’ll see.

Lee Evans: I’ve always thought the world of this kid, the Bills will have to put the ball in the end zone to stick with the Browns, and Cleveland’s secondary plays like they’re in the pro-bowl every week – I like this match-up.

Roddy White: If someone’s collecting catches, yards, and touchdowns in a blowout of the Falcons, it will be White. If someone is responsible for getting the Falcons a win, it will be this talented receiver. Good sleeper this week.

Tony Scheffler: I just really like this kid in Denver – he could have a big game against the Texans on Thursday.

Anthony Gonzalez: I’m sure the Colt is a popular pick this week after having a big day last week – but the key is, even when Peyton and the rest of the big names go out, Gonzo will still get his work. I like that, and I think he’ll have another nice day.

Buccaneers: The Falcons put up big points last week against New Orleans, but the Saints are terrible defensively. This disciplined Buc secondary will give the Falcons problems.

LUCKY’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Eli Manning: He’s still bad.

Samkon Gado: He may be starting for the Dolphins, but the Ravens are going to eat him alive.

Laveranues Coles: Not this week, not against this motivated Patriots team.

Todd Heap: He’s going to play! I don’t buy that for a minute. Maybe for 1 quarter until he gets hurt. I wouldn’t start him with my playoff life on the line.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 15

Week 15, and with only 3 weeks to go (counting this one) you can very well say that the football regular season is in the midst of it’s stretch run. Don’t fret, there’s still playoffs, and more time sensitive draft to wrap your mind around this spring. But for now, lets get at this NFL Picks thing, and see if I can’t come up with some solid reasons to take the teams I do… Bingo, Bango, Bongo!

Thursday’s Game…

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Houston Texans:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

This game should be an interesting one. The Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives, and even without Matt Schaub, the Texans are always trying to prove they belong. I’d like to see the Texans fight and claw their way to .500 for the season, but with injuries, and no real rushing game, I just don’t see that happening. The Broncos are freaks, and can’t figure out if they want to be good or not, but Selvin Young and Travis Henry can both be solid rushing threats against the Texans, and I honestly don’t think the Texans defensive front will do well against that chopp-em blocking scheme from the Broncos. Demecco Ryans is magic, but even he won’t be able to shut down the running game in Denver. Jay Cutler is beginning to figure it out, and seems to be at the top of that quarterback class right about now. I’m taking the Broncos on Thursday Night. (A side note, though, I am 0-2 thus far since the NFL Network took over on Thursday’s)

Saturday’s Game…

Cincinnati Bengals (-8) @ San Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Bengals are better on the road than they are at home, and the 49ers are just brutal. They’ll be starting… ________ (Insert name there) at quarterback, and unless you are a football savvy soldier like me, I’m guessing you wouldn’t be able to tell me much about the youngster that will be getting fed to the Tigers from Cincinnati. The bottom line is, the Bengals are bad, but can they be this bad? I don’t think so, as this game seems pretty simple to me. Take the team that can score points against the team that can’t – and don’t try to out-think yourself about which pick is “sharp” or road and home team chances, or who and why such team has more to play for. The 49ers are bad, and they won’t win another game this season.

Sunday’s Games…

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Cleveland Browns:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I know the Browns were better defensively last week, but can you really count that? They were playing against the Jets, a team that was surely looking over the hill towards next week’s match-up with their divisional big brothers. Anyway, the Browns won’t be able to stop the accurate passing of Trent Edwards and will get especially diced up by the running backs in Buffalo. This is a huge game for both teams, but the Bills are playing better all around ball than the Browns right now. Gotta take them to get an upset win on the road in Cleveland.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I think the Rams could give the Packers some trouble, but only if Marc Bulger is fully dressed and his mooshy brain is ready to be productive. If he’s not starting, I’m taking no credit for this pick, regardless of how it turns out. I think the Rams aren’t a bad squad, and could even walk out of St. Louis with a win over the dominant Packers – but I’m not going that far just yet. I’m just saying, the Rams aren’t as bad as their record, and if Green Bay comes in with the mind-set that they are, they’ll take some lumps on Sunday. I’ll take the home team with 10 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

The Jaguars are the better team. I saw a scouting site that already has a mock NFL draft ready to go, and they said the Jaguars are looking for a quarterback early – puh-lease! David Garrard is everything this team has every wanted, and everything they need for the future. He plays ball control offense, is smart, and takes care of the football. He is a threat to throw deep, hit outs, and run the ball if need be. He’s physical and fast. Perfect for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are just playing inspired football right now, and the Steelers have been brutal the last four games or so. They didn’t have a chance last week, and while they will play better at home, I still think they fall to the Jags this Sunday. This should be a close game, and I think it will come down to the wire, but I like the 4 points with one of the best teams in football.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-24):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I actually think the Patriots have a good chance of covering this spread. When you consider Eric Mangini’s history with the Pats, and the fact that he was the one who snitched Belichick out for “spy-gate” I’d say this line is right on the button. I hate 24 point spreads in the NFL, and I say stay away from it, but I like the Patriots chances in this one much better than I liked them against eh Eagles and Ravens (the other big spreads they couldn’t beat). The Pats are back to dominating the game, and they have a huge reason to be up and ready to poop all over the Jets. They are at home, and you can bet the Jets, no matter what they do in practice this week, won’t be ready for the Patriots. Still, 24 points, seems a little ridiculous, no?

Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) @ Oakland Raiders:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I have to take the big away favorite here, and I don’t like it all that much. The Raiders are just bad, and the Colts are starting to pick it up everywhere. Their defense has been pretty damn good all season long, and now their offense, behind Prince Peyton, is rolling on all cylinders (well all the healthy ones anyway). I expect a huge running day from Addai, and probably Kenton Keith, considering he’ll get about 15 garbage carries that could very well lead to a glorious day for some fantasy football risk takers. I’m taking no risks here, as I think the Raiders will be limited by the Colts defense, and they won’t be able to stop the 2nd team.

Philadelphia Eagles (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

I like the Eagles to keep this one relatively close. They were already beat up by the Giants in Philly, so I think they’ll come back to Dallas and put up a big fight. The Cowboys played pretty bad last week against the Lions, and Philly’s coaching staff can game plan with the best of them. My guess is they’ll learn a thing or two from the Lions ground success, and instill a little bit of their own with one of the best running backs in football. Westy should have a better day this time around, and while both teams will put up their points, I think the Cowboys will win a close one late. 10 points is pretty ridiculous in this rivalry.
Monday Night Football Game

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: TheGreek)

Kyle Orton… Hmmm… He was 10-5 as a starter, but you have to think this is a different Bears defense than it has been in years’ past. In fact, if you don’t think that, you’re obviously lacing your Egg-Nog up a little too strong, and you should tone it down a bit before you get too woosy and experiment the strength of your lighter on your dried out Christmas tree. But, that doesn’t mean that the Bears don’t have a chance – in fact, I think this game just stinks as far as value is concerned. I’m taking the Vikings, because the Bears can’t really stop the run, and Minnesota has two very good options on the ground, three if you count Tarvaris Jackson. Kyle Orton won’t do much with his arm, or you’d think Lovie would have tried him earlier in the season, before he went back to the Grossman option. Anyway, We shall see. I’m betting on the Vikings here, because they can stop the only thing the Bears do even close to well, the run game. And honestly, they aren’t very good at running the ball either.