Just say NO to drugs… and Week 10…With Week 10 deep down in the depths of my memory I will attempt to woo you with a much better attempt at picking the pro games this week. Check my Week 10 Review if you’re brave, but don’t be frightened off by a week I’d just as well forget. We all have weeks we’d rather not remember, like that time you woke up stark naked in bed with that girl who just happened to have noticeable back hair. Week 11 brings a new way to make up for lost picks, yes, that’s right, 16 games to pick. time isn’t on my side, so I better get right down to it. Ennie Meennie Mini Moe, My mom told me to pick the very best one and the Bears, Titans, Cowboys, Colts, etc., are not it…
Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Chicago Bears – There are a few reasons I must take the Panthers in this match-up; the Bears are 3-5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games, and have lost one and pushed one in their last two. When playing NFC South teams the Bears haven’t won a game against the spread in the last three years. They’re only 1-4 against that division teams since 2002, that one win coming this year against the hapless Saints. The Panthers have beaten the spread three of their last four contests. The Bears have a defense made of steel but an offense as tough as veal. The Panthers have the best of both worlds, with solid attacks on both sides of the ball. With a toned down passing attack, trying to save Jake Delhomme from throwing untimely interceptions, the Panthers will win their 7th straight game of the year. Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Philadelphia Eagles (+5) @ New York Giants – Call me crazy; Gourdo, my imaginary friend, always does, but I think Donovan going down is good for this Eagle team. Remember when McNabb went down a few years ago, and Koy Detmer came in a ran the show? He played really well. Then Koy went down, and AJ Feely came in and led the Eagles to victory. Well, I think it’s going to happen again here. Without McNabb roaming the field, Andy Reid has to put a lot more thought into his game plan. McMahon will give the Eagles a threat on the ground, like McNabb used to be before his hernia, and his arm is strong enough to make all the throws. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles surprise and make a push for their Division Title.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) @ Tennessee Titans – In their last five contests, the Jaguars are 1-4 against the Titans. Make that 2-5 after this game. The Jaguars are as good as they’ve been since they were an idea for a franchise, and the Titans are as sickly as they’ve been in years. Chris Brown has been solid, but McNair looks average at best. With trouble at the receiver spot, don’t be surprised if the Titans fail to score more than 14 points on Sunday. The Jaguars will pick on rookie Adam Jones with tall receivers Earnest Wilford and Reggie Williams. Take the Jaguars in this game, as they attempt to take down the Titans in Tennessee.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Detroit Lions (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys – In their last 10 games when favored, the Cowboys are 3-6-1 against the spread. They lucked out big time when McNabb threw a touchdown pass to Roy Williams, putting Dallas up for good, 21-20. What the Cowboys didn’t do was show me they are a dominate football team. In fact, Philly dominated that Monday Night game for 55 minutes. As luck would have it, the ‘Boys won. This week might be another victory for Dallas, but don’t expect it to be that easy. The Lions will be ready to play. With a big play defense, all the Lions have to do to win is get Joey Harrington to play like he did last week. Yeah, that’s all they have to do. Their defense will keep them close. Close enough to cover. Close enough to win? Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) – This year the Colts are 6-3 ATS, being favored in every single game. The Colts are undefeated. In their 10th game of the season, the Colts will walk away with their first defeat. Indianapolis hasn’t faced an offense with the Bengals firepower, consistency, or balance. The Colts will be ready for this game, but I don’t think luck will be on their side. Carson Palmer will outplay Peyton Manning like he has all year. This will be a battle of the leagues top quarterbacks, and a dandy it should be. Take the Bengals coming off a bye week. Coach Lewis will have them ready to rise at home against the Colts.
Game Date: 11/20/05 16:15 ET
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-10) – These are the same old Saints and the growing too old too fast Patriots. Nothing New about them besides their names. This has been a very tough year for the Saints. Think Rambo, think stale gum, think Mickey Rourke in Sin City tough. I’m talking tough here. When I say tough, I mean completely impossible tough to swallow. Here’s a little hint, there won’t be a bright spot for this team until the draft. In this fine season, the Saints are 2-4-1 against the spread as underdogs, while only winning 1 out of 6. The Pats are an even 3-3 picked to win. Tom Brady will put them one game up in that category when they take down the Saints big in New England. Aaron Brooks just isn’t consistent enough to play well an entire game against the Patriots. He doesn’t have Deuce McCallister to lean on. This should be an old-fashioned trouncing. Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Arizona Cardinals (+10) @ St. Louis Rams – When picked as the favorite, the Rams are 1-3 ATS this season, and 3-7 ATS in their last ten games. The obvious pick is the Rams, who’ve played much better since Martz had to walk away because of his sickness. But the Rams are still the Rams, a team that plays to the level of their opponents. The Cardinals Kurt Warner will be out to prove he can still get the job done. He’ll look to win his first game as a Cardinal.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons – The Buc doesn’t stop here. The Buc’s find themselves atop the NFC with a much improved Chris SImms at quarterback and a struggling rookie running back at the center of the offense. Joey Galloway has played awesome, but the Bucs can still get much better. They’ll have to play better to beat the Falcons. Atlanta comes into this game with a loss to the Packers on their conscience. This is a must win for Atlanta. The Buccaneers, however, will have other ideas. Cadillac Williams will finally have a day he can write home about, as even a 1st time starter Samkon Gado rushed for over 100 yards against Atlanta. The Falcons won’t be able to stop Williams, and when they commit 8 or 9 to the line, Galloway and Simms will hookup for big scores.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Oakland Raiders @ Washington Redskins (-6) – As underdogs, the Raiders have lost every single game this season. They’re 1-5 ATS in these games. I’m taking the Redskins, I don’t know about you. The Redskins are about even this year, 3-2 as favorites. Washington showed they can put up points against the toughest defenses in the league. This week, they play a defense that is average at best. With young corners trying to keep up with Santana Moss, this should be another high-scoring affair from Washington. The Raiders need to win the rest of their games to get anywhere, the only place they’ll go is the off season. This will just be another step toward the bottom of the league and the top of the draft.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) @ Baltimore Ravens – The Steelers will find it hard pressed to score points if Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t start on Sunday. Fortunately for the Steel Show, it will be harder for the Ravens to score with Kyle Boller calling plays against their defense. That’s right, I’d take Tommy Maddox and the Steelers against Boller and the Ravens any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Shit, I’d take the Steelers if Randel-El was running the show. In fact, the Steelers might be better off with Antwaan throwing the ball. Did anyone see that running bomb that was dropped on a dime to Hines Ward? The Steelers win football games. They always seem to find a way. The Ravens stumbled on a couple wins earlier in the year, but their glory days look to be over. Take Steel City and whoever they have taking snaps. Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Miami Dolphins (+2) @ Cleveland Browns – I don’t know how the Dolphins can be 3 point underdogs against the Patriots and 2 point underdogs against the Browns. Don’t get me wrong, the Browns play tough, but are they a point away from New England? No, no, no. The Dolphins are better than the Browns. Nick Saban has a powerful defense and an apt offense. I’ve sold the Phins short all year long, but I will be had no longer. Viva Miami! Gus Frerotte for Prez!
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Seattle Seahawks (-12) @ San Francisco 49ers – The Seahawks are good, and the 49ers have Cody Pickett starting at quarterback. ‘Nough said. But wait, I’ll say more; sure the Niners played tight with the Bears, but Chicago doesn’t have the offensive explosiveness that Seattle possesses. Shaun Alexander is leading the league in rushing because he is a great back with the best offensive line in the league. Matt Hasselbeck is accurate and confident, and he can make every pass in the book. Darrell Jackson won’t be back this week, but that doesn’t seem to bother the Seahawks, they’ve lost one game without D-Jack in the lineup. Look for Matt to look to D-Hack and Joe Jurevicius for big plays to balance Alexander’s running. Hawks win big in San Francisco. Game Date: 11/20/05 16:05 ET
Buffalo Bills (+10) @ San Diego Chargers – As an underdog the Bills are 1-3 ATS this season. Their single win came in a game where they were 9 point dogs. This week they are 10 point dogs against the Chargers. In their three losses against the spread, they lost by a combined 49 points. Basically their getting kicked around like the girlfriends of NFL tight ends. Yeah, I said it. The Bills are playing better, more confident, and JP Losman looks like he might get this quarterback thing down after all. I’m taking the Bills to get surprisingly close to Ladainian Tomlinson and the Chargers. The Chargers still win at home. They need this game just as bad as ever.
Game Date: 11/20/05 16:15 ET
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-13) – Besides the fact that when favored the Broncos have won three straight games ATS, and are 6-3-1 in their last 10, the Jets just don’t have anything going for them. Their season is basically meaningless; at 2-7 there is no chance for New York to catch the average Patriots for a shot at the playoffs. Their coach, one of my favorite coaches in the league, Herman Edwards, is in jeopardy of losing his job. Curtis Martin is getting older, and the trade of Doug Jolley for Heath Miller (Pick #22) is looking more and more like a major mistake. The Broncos, on the other hand, have overachieved all the way to 7-2. Seeing as though I didn’t pick them as a playoff contender, it’s time for me to apologize. Yeah right. Good luck losing in the first round you mile-high playoff screw-ups. Anyway, back to this game; the Broncos will have to try very hard not to kick the living crap out of the Jets. New York’s defense can only play hard for so long, especially up their in that thin air. Too much time on the field will be their downfall as Little Spencer’s Broncos win again.
Game Date: 11/20/05 16:15 ET
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Houston Texans – The Chiefs may have lost, no, got embarrassed by the Bills, but by no means are they going to lose to the Texans on Sunday Night Football, and there is no way they win by less than a touchdown. Larry Johnson is going to annihilate the Houston Texans defense, that has taken a step back from last year. Trent Green won’t have a game as bad as he had last week, and Dick Vermeil has to realize he can’t play it safe anymore. More touchdowns, more big plays, more go for it to win the game, less losing to teams like Buffalo. (The Chiefs are 4 out of 5 ATS this year when favored) Game Date: 11/20/05 20:35 ET
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-4) – The Vikings can ‘t continue to squeak by like this. Two weeks in a row, amazing! Until last week, the Vikes were 0-6 as underdogs against the spread in 2005. Nice. Randy Moss always plays well against Green Bay. Unfortunately for the Brad Johnson, Randy runs routes for the Raiders. There was 3 non-offensive touchdowns last week, and Minnesota still barely beat the Giants. The Packers have found a little trust in Gado, and they’ll continue to use him as he seems to have a knack to reach the end zone. Brett Favre continues to rifle perfect passes to his receivers. Donald Driver is underrated. Look for the Packers to even the season series on Monday Night Football.
Game Date: 11/21/05 21:05 ET
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