TBC
Monthly Archives: January 2008
NFL Playoffs – Conference Championship
One of the best Sunday’s in all of sports. Personally, I like this weekend more than the Super Bowl in most cases, but with the possibility of a Packers/Patriots Big Game, I can’t help but look ahead to that match-up. You can bet, that regardless of my picks, I’ll be rooting for the Patriots and Packers to meet up at the Last Dance – Perfection versus a perfect old quarterback, gotta love it. Here are my Free Picks for the NFC and AFC Championships.
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots (-14):
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)
Unlike the Jaguars, I don’t think the Chargers are one of the Best 5 teams in the NFL. However, what I think doesn’t seem to matter in the swing of things, as the Chargers have maneuvered their way into the Final Four – quite a run for a team that didn’t finish the game with either their starting running back (LT, one of, if not the best player in the game) or their starting quarterback (Phillip Rivers, two great games in a row). They won against the Colts with their defense, but what it really came down to was momentum. After Marvin Harrison fumbled the ball with the Colts driving to score, Indy never got mo back. I don’t think momentum will find San Diego in this game. The Patritos have won 17 of their 17 games this season, already – that has never happened before. But this Patriots team plays best when opponents get them ready, and LT’s comments from last years’ playoff meeting with the Pats, as well as his blabber before this years’ matchup, has New England geared for a big win in front of their home-town fans. Believe it, a big win is on the way.
New York Giants (+7) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)
People will see the score from this game earlier in the year and insist that the Packers killed the Giants early. That just wasn’t the case. The Giants were up at half time 10-7 and down 13-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter. After that, the Packers received a couple gift turnovers from the Giants and did dirty work with them, scoring three straight touchdowns to put the game way out of reach, accumulating a 35-13 score in the process. I sure think the Packers will come out of Green Bay with a victory, but I don’t think it will be as easy as 35-13. I expect Ryan Grant to have another big day, this time going heads up against the team that cut him earlier in the season. He should be thankful though, that cut job looks like it gave him the chance he needed to become a rich man in this league. Watch out for cold weather, Ellie Manning has shrinkage in the fingers when it gets cold, and he just can’t hold onto or throw the ball all that well. This game is a tough one for me to pick, I like the Pats -14 a whole heck of a lot more, but if I had to choose, I’d take the Giants +7, which means a lot, because I can’t stand those Football Giants.
2007 Divisional Playoffs Review
2-2 Last week. As it turns out, my 3 underdog to 1 favorite was a good ratio, but I just had to change the Packers and the Colts around to get optimal results, oh well, such is the way the cookie crumbles. This is what happened.
Saturday’s Games…
Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Green Bay Packers: LOSS
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: 5Dimes)
As it turned out, Brett called on the football gods to toss snow upon this game, which allowed his team to throw snowballs around and get into their comfort zone, while the Hawks just flew farther and farther away. Seattle started out the game with two gift fumbles from Ryan Grant, and all of a sudden they were up 14-0. Even I knew that wasn’t going to last, stating, “This is the worst thing that could happen to the Seahawks.” They didn’t have to fight very hard for their big lead, and everyone knew the Packers weren’t going to give up. The Hawks didn’t even get close to covering, and if it weren’t for two fumbles down in the Packers own zone, Seattle probably doesn’t put up a touchdown on the day. It all came down to 3rd down, as Seattle would play great defense on 1st and 2nd only to piss away their hard work by allowing Brett to complete a long 3rd down pass, or miss a tackle, or just about anything to lose. It was hard to watch.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+15) @ New England Patriots: WIN
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: 5Dimes)
“15 points? In the playoffs? Yeah, it might happen, but right now I think the Jaguars are one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL, and I’d take any single one of those teams and 15 points against the Patriots. I like New England, and think the Patriots passing attack could do a number on the Jaguars defensive backs, but likewise, the Jaguars will put enough ground power into their offensive attack to put up points on the Patriots. In the end, I think this game will easily go over the total, and will finish within two touchdowns, making the Jags a winner in New England against the spread. However, I don’t plan on seeing the Patriots lose this game, thus 17-0 is just a duke it out, tough game with the Jags away from coming true. The only thing keeping me away from putting a lot of money on this game is what the Patriots did to the Steelers. However, I picked the Pats over the Steelers, and that was because they are prone to mistakes. The Jaguars won’t make as many mistakes this week.” (Me) I think I said it pretty well, and the only thing I got wrong was the Jaguars run game getting stymied. I figured they’d have a nice day against the Pats. Either way, this game finished over my total (49) and covered easily. Tied at half time, and down only a score and a two point conversion in the 4th quarter, I think the Jags will prove to be the toughest test the Pats face on their way to a Super Bowl win.
Sunday’s Games…
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5): LOSS
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)
“After having terrible luck with a 4th down interception and fumble that gave Tom Brady and the Patriots a second chance last season, the Chargers get to try their chances out in Indianapolis this time around, against the second powerhouse in the AFC, the Indianapolis Colts. San Diego pulled the monkey of their collective back by taking down the Titans in a pretty ugly game last week. The key to the win was Phillip Rivers finally getting the job done when his team needed him the most. However, Rivers won’t complete those same passes against a healthy and fast Colts secondary. Rivers threw ducks in San Diego last week, and they were complete, sometimes for touchdowns. This week, those will be intercepted. If the Colts stop LT, they’ll stop the Chargers, and take this game with relative ease. I just have a feeling that the Colts are indeed going to walk away with this one.” (Me) Nice feeling, jackass! The Colts stopped LT early, but still got stooped. Phillip Rivers had an even better game this time around, but he got hurt, and then Billy Volek led the Chargers down for the game winning touchdown. Weird game for the Colts, I almost got the feeling that they might take this one late, but after the Rivers’ injury, they just looked like they shut it down, expecting to just get the win. They weren’t in a hurry at all, and a late dropped pass ended the game for them. I couldn’t have been more wrong about this one.
New York Giants (+9) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)
“Alright, I’m taking the Giants. I know I’ve been criticizing them, calling them “the worst team in the playoffs” but the last two weeks of solid play has me convinced that they’ll play close with the Cowboys. Not only have they been good, but once again, the Cowboys are looking mediocre coming into the playoffs. Tony Romo and his offense hasn’t been hitting the gas of late, and maybe they’re just holding back for the big show, but I’m not comfortable with them right now. The Giants defense has played very tough, and Eli Manning hasn’t been doing things to kill their chances. I still think the Cowboys win this one, but by no more than a touchdown.” (Me) Those who follow me know, there’s nothing I like more than having the Cowboys lose and covering the spread on that game. I like Romo, really, I do, but it wasn’t his fault. His receivers dropped a bunch of balls, and in the end, the Giants pass rush was just too much for Dallas’s offensive line. Good game, though. Marion Barber is a beast, they should have given it to him 30 times.
NFL Free Picks – Playoffs ROUND 2
I was 3-1 last week! The divisional playoffs roll forward, as the Packers and Cowboys host the NFC contenders and the Colts and Patriots stay at home to host the AFC wild card winners. It should be a great week, nothing but the best in the Final 8. Underdogs galore.
Saturday’s Games…
Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Green Bay Packers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: 5Dimes)
I think the Seahawks have the best chance to pull an upset during Week 2 of the playoffs, and honestly, I think they’re about 50-50. Seattle and Green Bay are very similar – they both throw the ball when push comes to shove, and despite a few good games on the ground, they both remain pass-first football teams. The Hawks don’t play all that well on the road, but their rivalry with the Packers makes this a little more than just a road playoff game. Matt Hasselbeck and Mike Holmgren both spent time in Green Bay, and Mike’s time as head coach produced numerous playoff appearances and a Packer Super Bowl win. Mike gave Brett his NFL start. With both Mike and Brett’s careers winding down, this game has so much on the line for both parties. It seems as though Seattle is just starting to flower, while the Packers have been winning games all season long. If the Seahawks can continue to pressure the quarterback, the Hawks could easily win this game. Either way, there’s too much value with the Hawks getting 9 points, I’ll take the road dog.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+15) @ New England Patriots:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: 5Dimes)
15 points? In the playoffs? Yeah, it might happen, but right now I think the Jaguars are one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL, and I’d take any single one of those teams and 15 points against the Patriots. I like New England, and think the Patriots passing attack could do a number on the Jaguars defensive backs, but likewise, the Jaguars will put enough ground power into their offensive attack to put up points on the Patriots. In the end, I think this game will easily go over the total, and will finish within two touchdowns, making the Jags a winner in New England against the spread. However, I don’t plan on seeing the Patriots lose this game, thus 17-0 is just a duke it out, tough game with the Jags away from coming true. The only thing keeping me away from putting a lot of money on this game is what the Patriots did to the Steelers. However, I picked the Pats over the Steelers, and that was because they are prone to mistakes. The Jaguars won’t make as many mistakes this week.
Sunday’s Games…
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00pm EST: Belmont)
After having terrible luck with a 4th down interception and fumble that gave Tom Brady and the Patriots a second chance last season, the Chargers get to try their chances out in Indianapolis this time around, against the second powerhouse in the AFC, the Indianapolis Colts. San Diego pulled the monkey of their collective back by taking down the Titans in a pretty ugly game last week. The key to the win was Phillip Rivers finally getting the job done when his team needed him the most. However, Rivers won’t complete those same passes against a healthy and fast Colts secondary. Rivers threw ducks in San Diego last week, and they were complete, sometimes for touchdowns. This week, those will be intercepted. If the Colts stop LT, they’ll stop the Chargers, and take this game with relative ease. I just have a feeling that the Colts are indeed going to walk away with this one.
New York Giants (+9) @ Dallas Cowboys:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)
Alright, I’m taking the Giants. I know I’ve been criticizing them, calling them “the worst team in the playoffs” but the last two weeks of solid play has me convinced that they’ll play close with the Cowboys. Not only have they been good, but once again, the Cowboys are looking mediocre coming into the playoffs. Tony Romo and his offense hasn’t been hitting the gas of late, and maybe they’re just holding back for the big show, but I’m not comfortable with them right now. The Giants defense has played very tough, and Eli Manning hasn’t been doing things to kill their chances. I still think the Cowboys win this one, but by no more than a touchdown.
Papa Weimer 2008 NFL Mock Draft
Round 1 Pre-Combine By Papa Weimer 2008 NFL Draft Order Player School No. Team Player School 1 Miami Dolphins (###) Glenn Dorsey LSU 2 St. Louis Rams Jake Long MICH 3 Atlanta Falcons # Darren McFadden ARK 4 Oakland Raiders # Chris Long VIRG 5 Kansas City Chiefs # Brian Brohm LOUI 6 New York Jets Sedrick Ellis USC 7 New Eng. Patriots(from 49ers)(###) James Laurinaitas OSU 8 Baltimore Ravens Matt Ryan BC 9 Cincinnati Bengals Malcom Jenkins OSU 10 New Orleans Saints Kenny Phillips Miami 11 Buffalo Bills Mike Jenkins SF 12 Denver Broncos Calais Campbell Miami 13 Carolina Panthers Andre Woodson UK 14 Chicago Bears Ryan Clady Boise 15 Detroit Lions Sam Baker USC 16 Arizona Cardinals Vernon Gholston OSU 17 Minnesota Vikings DeSean Jackson CAL 18 Houston Texans Jonathan Stewart Oregon 19 Philadelphia Eagles Lawrence Jackson USC 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers * Malcom Kelly OU 21 Washington Redskins * Llimas Sweed TEX 22 Dallas Cowboys(from Browns)*(###) Aqib Talib KAN 23 Seattle Seahawks * Felix Jones ARK 24 Pittsburgh Steelers * Jeff Otah PITT 25 Tennessee Titans * Kentwan Blamer NC 26 New York Giants * Dan Conner Penn St. 27 San Diego Chargers * Ali Highsmith LSU 28 Jacksonville Jaguars * Keith Rivers USC 29 Green Bay Packers * Derrock Harvey FLA 30 Dallas Cowboys * (###) Rashard Mendenhall ILL 31 San Francisco 49ers (from Colts) * Antoine Cason ARZ 32 New England Patriots * spy gate - whoop! Hrdkncks * -- Subject to playoffs # -- Subject to coin flip ### -- I think pick will be traded You think you know better? Send your emails to papaweimer50@hotmail.com
2007 Wild Card Weekend Review
2-2 after one week, lets see if I can’t get this thing going and turn my .500 record into big winners all the way to the Super Bowl – this is how Week 1 churned out.
Saturday’s Games…
Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks (-3):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)
“I just don’t think the Redskins will pull the upset here. Many people forget that this is one of Seattle’s most talented teams. They pass the ball a ton, and do so very accurately and efficiently. Also, their defense is what really impresses me. With Patrick Kearney and Julian Peterson bringing pressure, Washington’s beat up offensive line will have to pull magic tricks to give Todd Collins enough time. This game will be close, but I’m taking the Hawks to win by 7-10 points in Seattle.” (Me) As it turns out, Kearney and company were just too much for the offensive line from Washington. Collins didn’t have the time he needs to make things happen, and thus he was intercepted a couple times, giving the Seahawks opportunity to put points on the board defensively. The Hawks are playing solid ball right now, the question is, can they keep it going?
Jacksonville Jaguars (Even) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)
“The Steelers had a solid year, but fell off at the end, so much so that they couldn’t find a way to skip the Jaguars in Round 1. I like the Jaguars to win by 7-14 points in this one.” (Me) As it turns out, my prediction was right up until the last 12 minutes of the game. The Jaguars were looking dominant, but the Steelers stormed back to take the lead off of 19 straight 4th quarter points. They weren’t ready to give up, and they’d been there before. Still, it was their lack of running prowess and inability to hold onto the ball in the 1st half that ended the Steelers’ season. David Garrard didn’t have a great game, throwing two picks and almost single handily allowing the Steelers back in the game. Then, on 4th and 2, Garrard ran for 30 yards, setting the Jags up for their game winning field goal and their first playoff win in a long time.
Sunday’s Games…
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)
I was just dead-wrong about this one. I expected Eli to play terrible and he was solid. I expected the Bucs to come out hard with the home-field behind them, and really, they played the last 3 quarters as if they didn’t belong in the playoffs. This was my only big miss of the week, and a big part of it has to be my annoyance with the Giants during the season. However, New York is playing good football right now, and if they continue to hold onto the ball, they’ll go toe to toe with anyone in the NFC.
Tennessee Titans (+10) @ San Diego Chargers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)
“Using a tough defense and a heavy dosage of run plays, I like the Titan’s chances to finish within 10 of the Chargers in San Diego.” (Me) I ended up wrong about this one, but tell me you would bet the Chargers -10 against Tennessee again and I’ll call you crazy. San Diego was down 6-0 at half, and though I still thought they’d win, I was almost sure I was going to cover with my 10 points and the Titans. But, Tennessee was shut out, and the Chargers did just enough to cover with two touchdowns in the last 17 minutes. Games like this are tough, and I knew it was going to come down to the last few minutes, and spread-points. A tough loss for me, but I hope you can still see why I took the Titans, and why the value was with the away team. Sometimes you just lose.
Free NFL Playoff Picks – Week 1
The playoff season enters the fray, and I pick my winners for everyone to see… Enjoy the best football of the season!
Saturday’s Games…
Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks (-3):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)
I can’t say enough about the Redskins’ push to the playoffs. They had to beat some good teams that had a lot on the line, and all the while they just pushed through injuries and problems to find a way to succeed. Now they get to fly all the way across the country to play one of the best home-teams in the entire league. I know from personal experience that no stadium is louder than Seattle’s 12th man, and the weather isn’t always festive either. Do the Redskins have a chance? You bet. They are playing a Seattle team that was up and down all year, and they have gallons of old momentum rallying along side them. However, I just don’t think the Redskins will pull the upset here. Many people forget that this is one of Seattle’s most talented teams. They pass the ball a ton, and do so very accurately and efficiently. Also, their defense is what really impresses me. With Patrick Kearney and Julian Peterson bringing pressure, Washington’s beat up offensive line will have to pull magic tricks to give Todd Collins enough time. This game will be close, but I’m taking the Hawks to win by 7-10 points in Seattle.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Even) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)
Last time the Steelers stumbled into the playoffs they pulled of upset after upset to bring home a set of championship rings – not this time, no way. The Jaguars are the better team in this match-up, which can be realized by their pick em status for Saturday’s game in Pittsburgh. The Jaguars are playing as well as anyone in the league right now, and the last team I would want to be is the Steelers minus Willie Parker. I know the Steelers have the home court advantage here, but how much is that really going to help? The Jaguars can smother the run, and pound the ball down your throat all game long – plus, they just don’t make mistakes. You’d think that David Garrard is due, but that thinking just hasn’t panned out quite yet. The Steelers had a solid year, but fell off at the end, so much so that they couldn’t find a way to skip the Jaguars in Round 1. I like the Jaguars to win by 7-14 points in this one.
Sunday’s Games…
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5):
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: Belmont)
At least the Bucs will be rested. This game will put to test my belief that resting players is the wrong decision more often than not. But maybe this team needed rest. They play physical football on both sides of the ball, relying on good feet and precise schemes, intelligence and experience to get them in the right place at the right time. Tampa doesn’t allow easy scores, and with that, they might be a very tough match-up for the Giants. New York doesn’t excel at putting together long drawn out drives, and that is because Eli Manning doesn’t have the accuracy required for such a style. Not only that, but New York played the game of their lives last week, they’re bound to play like donkeys this time around. I haven’t liked the Giants all year, and I think they are the worst playoff team there is. We’ll see how I look after Sunday.
Tennessee Titans (+10) @ San Diego Chargers:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5Dimes)
I think this game will turn one way or another depending on one thing, and no, I’m not talking about Vince Young’s health. I’m more concerned about Albert Haynesworth’s hamstring. If Al can play a majority of the snaps at his healthy run-stuffing level, the Titans have a chance to force more than a couple Charger mistakes in the passing game. If Al doesn’t play, or is limited because of his legs, San Diego might just run roughshod on Tennessee’s defenders. From the looks of Al last week, I’m guessing that he plays this Sunday, and the Titans go back to their covering ways of yester-year. I also think that Vince Young will play – he’s gotten this team this far, they need to trust in him. Using a tough defense and a heavy dosage of run plays, I like the Titan’s chances to finish within 10 of the Chargers in San Diego.