Tag Archives: Maurice Jones Drew

Sunday Observations: Week 6 NFL Football

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My buddy Josh had this great idea, take some of our best comments to each other from Sunday’s action, the group’s best and worst textual masterpieces, and put them together in one article for all to see. Sometimes our day-time observations can be priceless, other times hilarious, and every once in a while even useful. You need to know, I have Sunday ticket, Josh is braving the darkness of Alaska and whichever games they show up there, Papa never leaves his dungeon, and Red Red Ryan couldn’t take part in this week’s texting session because his red hair (and female partner) wouldn’t allow him to do so. The bottom line is, we all watch football in different places, so we keep our texting handy to pretend we’re watching the games together. So, Red was out this week but still, Papa, Josh, and I sent texts to and fro. Here’s the Top 15, compiled by yours truly…

Josh Arsenault

1. Percy Harvin is a speed guy that loves to hit people… Watch him block from the slot and it’s easy to see why the Vikings love him.

2. Ray Rice’s game reminds me of MJD…. He and Flacco have a chance to be special for a long time.

3. John Fox makes coaching look hard… Here’s a tip, Foxy: D-Will, D-Will, J-Stew, D-Will, J-Stew, J-Stew, D-Will… Somebody get this guy a Tecmo Bowl playbook.

4. There is nobody in the NFL I enjoy watching lose more than Jay Cutler… Except maybe Al Davis… Here’s hoping Culter winds up with the Raiders at some point.

5. No team is more bi-polar than the Seattle Seahawks… Their two wins were shutouts (28-0 and 41-0) and their four losses have been by an average margin of 15 points. Which one will it be coming off their bye?

Lucky Lester

1. Rummaging through the games I think I’ve watched five offensive plays by the Bills, and I’m pretty damn sure Terrell Owens has three drops. If the average team has 60 offensive plays, TO is on pace to drop 36 balls based on my numbers – that has to be a record.

2. Joshua Cribbs is unreal, but unless he returns 5 kickoffs and punts for touchdowns, the Browns aren’t going to have a chance to win this game.

3. How do nine football games manage to all be on commercial at the same time, and not one has reached half time? On the bright side, the Tampa game is showing their cheerleaders, and I’m pretty sure they are only wearing jerseys – there might be black panties under there, but I’m not sure.

4. The Jaguars must really stink, because Maurice Jones Drew is really freaking good and they still suck.

5. I hate watching Jake Delhomme, he’s like a Ben Stiller movie, I feel embarrassed for the guy. He tries so hard but he just keeps zipping his junk up in his zipper. The guy can dig himself a hole with the best of them.

Papa Weimer

1. I hope Jim Zorn realizes that it’s not the quarterback, it’s him. Jason Campbell is better than Todd Collins, that’s why he’s started over the past 2 seasons. It’s the play calling, the dead end coaching spot, and the general broke down feeling of the Skins franchise.

2. I feel bad for Todd Haley, his offense plays like the last 3 eight grade teams I coached. They jump off-sides like it’s their job, they miss assignments all day long, and they do just enough to give you a glimmer of hope before they rip it away with a holding penalty and two jumps off-sides on back2back2back plays.

3. If you got paid a million dollars to get knocked out, and you got to pick one guy to make sure the job got done right, which player in the league would you choose to rock your world? I got Ray Lewis. (Josh replies, Brian Dawkins) (Lucky replies, Aaron Curry)

4. Hahahaha… The Rams are going to win, the Rams are going to win! Leonard Little, pick 6, the worst team in the league won’t tie the Lions for the worst record ever!

5. The Rams lose. Figures. If the Rams and Bucs gave all their best players to fight for a singular cause, they’d still get beat 12 times a year.

Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Football Analysis Week 5

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Week 4 was historic, it was the first week that I didn’t finish first in overall fantasy rankings, a little competition we have here at LuckyLester.com. For those of you that don’t know, the staff gets together their fantasy rankings for the week, and in the Fantasy Focus review everybody gets graded based on their picks. I won the first 3 weeks before getting ousted by my chubby and generally crazy uncle. I haven’t heard the end of it since he knew he took home the gold. But hey, I still finished tied for “next” with Red Red Ryan, yet another guy that keeps telling me he’s just as good as me. It’s a tough crowd, you fall a step back one week and now you’re not the best. We’ll see… This week we have four more teams on bye, Bears, Packers, Saints, Chargers – so don’t get caught with any of those circus-squads in your starting lineup. Dream big in Week 5, almost 1/3 of the way through the fantasy season. Craziness…

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – Come on, free money, against the Titans D, he should be even better than normal.
2. Adrian Peterson – I liked him last week against the Packers, and while he didn’t do well, I won’t hesitate against STL.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – This cat is physical, ask Frank Gore what physical runners do to Seattle…
4. Matt Schaub – The Cardinals are really good against the run, good enough to score a lot, thus Matt will have a day.
5. Reggie Wayne – I can’t get enough of Reggie, he’s such a sure thing, and I expect him to do bad things to Tennessee.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Julius Jones– Julius and the Hawks were brutal last week, but against Jax’s defense, I like his upside.
2. Santana Moss – If Carolina knows what’s good for them, they’ll stack the line. That should open a few up for Moss.
3. Tim Hightower– I’d say Tim was picked in the low rounds, but he’s not full sleeper. Against Houston he could score twice.
4. Carson Palmer – I like Carson again, even against a good Ravens D – there’s room to pass in that secondary.
5. Hines Ward –Hines, like Carson, finds himself on this list for the 2nd straight week. He didn’t let me down last time.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Tashard Choice – He might be a back-up again, but if Dallas is up early, why waste Marion? They won’t, Choice gets 20 totes.
2. Jerome Harrison – I’ve always loved his vision; thought he’d do big things with lots of carries; he’ll get them again this week.
3. Mohamed Massaquoi –He’s the #1 in Cleveland now, and Derek Anderson likes him. A good play this week.
4. Steve Breaston– You can probably pick up breast in most leagues; he could be huge against Houston.
5. Eddie Royal – I have to go to this well one more week, he’s as talented as little guys come, could be huge!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Ray Rice – I would sit Rice this week, I think Cincinnati really shuts him down in Week 5.
2. Steven Jackson – Minnesota, ick. I’d rather start Mendenhall, Hightower, or Julius Jones.
3. Matt Ryan – I’d look for a better option than San Francisco’s solid defense coming off two weeks of prep.
4. Roddy White –If I don’t like Matty Ice, I really don’t like Roddy going against Nate Clements all day long.
5. Larry Johnson – Get ready for less than 3 yards per rush against Dallas.

PS – Bye weeks are back, and here for some time, recognize! Mind the gap!

Week 5 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

Ryan Kauffman	        Josh Arsenault		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning   	1.Peyton Manning	1.Matt Schaub   	1.Peyton Manning
2.Kurt Warner   	2.Tom Brady     	2.Kurt Warner     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Ben Roethlisberger 	3.Donovan McNabb     	3.Tony Romo     	3.Donovan McNabb
4.Joe Flacco     	4.Matt Schaub     	4.Peyton Manning 	4.Carson Palmer
5.Tom Brady     	5.David Garrard    	5.Donovan McNabb	5.Kurt Warner
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson
2.Chris Johnson 	2.Brandon Jacobs  	2.Rashard Mendenhall  	2.Maurice Jones-Drew
3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.DeAngelo Williams  	3.Chris Johnson 	3.Brandon Jacobs
4.DeAngelo Williams	4.Clinton Portis    	4.Brian Westbrook 	4.Rashard Mendenhall
5.Brandon Jacobs 	5.Rashard Mendenhall   	5.Glen Coffee   	5.Tim Hightower

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Reggie Wayne	        1.Reggie Wayne          1.T.J. Housmandzadeh 	1.Reggie Wayne
2.Andre Johnson 	2.Andre Johnson   	2.Reggie Wayne		2.DeSean Jackson
3.Larry Fitzgerald  	3.Anquan Boldin 	3.Larry Fitzgerald   	3.Anquan Boldin
4.Derrick Mason    	4.Brandon Marshall 	4.Andre Johnson 	4.Chad Ochocinco
5.Hines Ward    	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Mike Sims-Walker	5.Andre Johnson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Jason Witten		2.Tony Gonzalez 	2.Chris Cooley
3.Chris Cooley		3.Tony Gonzalez		3.Vernon Davis  	3.Owen Daniels
4.John Carlson   	4.Brent Celek   	4.Chris Cooley		4.Tony Gonzalez
5.Vernon Davis  	5.Vernon Davis   	5.Dustin Keller 	5.Jason Witten

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Vikings		1.Vikings		1.Giants		1.Giants
2.Steelers		2.Giants        	2.Vikings		2.Vikings
3.Giants 		3.Eagles 		3.Eagles		3.Jets
4.Jets   		4.Cowboys  		4.Ravens		4.Eagles
5.Patriots		5.Jets  		5.Steelers		5.Steelers

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Laces out, just like our kickers, out of the rankings! When the toe kick returns, we're back in!

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 3

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Week 3 fantasy football is upon us, and here we are, dancing around some tough plays this coming weekend. The match-ups are in, the staff has been polled, and we have all the predicted rankings heading into Week 3. I’ve taken the top spot (Lucky Lester) each of the first two weeks, but it’s close, and I know I have some guys out to take my crown. Once again, I’ve listed my 4 levels of plays, elites, solids, sleepers, and no-nos, I hope they help. Josh, Papa, Red Red Ryan, and I have our rankings further down the page. I hope you enjoy it all!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – I don’t think the Texans can stop MJD, ala Chris Johnson last week.
2. Andre Johnson – That being said, I’m not so sure the Jaguars can stop the Texans either, I’ll take AJ.
3. Drew Brees – He has to come back to earth one of these days, dude can’t throw 72 touchdowns. Not this week.
4. Matt Schaub – Two weeks in a row at the top? You bet.
5. Brandon Jacobs – It’s been a slow start for the beast, enter the Buccaneers as unlucky opponent in Week 3.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Ray Rice– I think Ray will be the top scoring back on the Ravens team this week against Cleveland.
2. Ryan Grant – The Packers haven’t been dedicated to the run this year, I think that changes this week.
3. Larry Johnson– Questions surrounding Larry, I think he has a nice game this week.
4. Dwayne Bowe – Big nasty receiver going against the Eagles, and I think KC will be down – I like this pick.
5. Braylon Edwards – Drop a couple, catch a couple, he’ll have plenty of opportunities down early.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Mario Manningham – Yeah, I like what I saw, me and every other guy.
2. David Garrard – I’d take him a lot of weeks, should be real good against Houston.
3. Trent Edwards –Both teams should have lots of snaps and score lots of points. Even in a loss I like Trent.
4.Fred Jackson– If he’s a beast one more week, does he keep the starting job when Lynch comes back?
5. Jabar Gaffney – The Raiders will take away the top guys, but Gaffney should find room. Good sleeper pick.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai – The Cardinals are very tough against the run, shutting down two studs in Gore and MJD.
2. Cedric Benson – His style versus the Steelers is not a good match-up for his fantasy owners.
3. Willie Parker – I don’t know if Willie will have too many more big games, the Bengals are tough on the run.
4. Bernard Berrien – Is he even the #1 receiver anymore, either way, Nate Clements should shut him down.
5. Chris Johnson – Can you sit this guy? Probably not, but if you have other options I’d suggest it.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault	        Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Peyton Manning	1.Drew Brees
2.Tom Brady     	2.Aaron Rodgers 	2.Tom Brady     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Phillip Rivers 	3.Matt Schaub     	3.Drew Brees     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Aaron Rodgers   	4.Peyton Manning	4.David Garrard 	4.Tony Romo
5.Carson Palmer  	5.Trent Edwards 	5.Aaron Rodgers		5.Tom Brady
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Michael Turner	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew
2.Maurice Jones-Drew	2.Brandon Jacobs	2.Steve Slaton  	2.Brandon Jacobs
3.Adrian Peterson	3.Ronnie Brown  	3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Matt Forte		4.Matt Forte    	4.Fred Jackson  	4.Matt Forte
5.Clinton Portis	5.Steven Jackson	5.Clinton Portis  	5.Ryan Grant

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Randy Moss		1.Andre Johnson   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Andre Johnson
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne  	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Randy Moss
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith (NYG)    	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Greg Jennings		4.Andre Johnson 	4.Steve Smith (CAR)
5.Steve Smith (CAR)  	5.Santonio Holmes	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Jericho Cotchery

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Chris Cooley  	1.Jeremy Shockey	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Antonio Gates
2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.John Carlson  	2.Dallas Clark
3.John Carlson		3.Dustin Keller		3.Tony Gonzalez 	3.Jason Witten
4.Antonio Gates 	4.Dallas Clark  	4.Owen Daniels		4.Chris Cooley
5.Jason Witten   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Tony Gonzalez

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Bears 		1.Ravens
2.Redskins		2.Broncos       	2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Packers		3.Giants		3.Eagles		3.Broncos
4.Broncos		4.Bears  		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Vikings		5.Redskins		5.Redskins		5.Eagles

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

2009 NFL Fantasy Football: Lucky Lester Shares his Predictions

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Last year’s predictions had some big winners, a couple tough luck losers, not to mention a handful of “what the hell was I thinking” fortunes that I told all wrong. I won’t get them all right this year either, but I’d like to think my waterfall of fantasy fodder will get you on the right track for your drafts, seasonal trade value, and possibly even a date with that girl that works at Victoria Secret. The brunette. As goes, I’ll spout off some claim, maybe even a sentence explaining why I think this, and will review the whole thing later in the year to see how it all went. All four of the writers doing work on this site will do an article similar to this, and in the end we’ll see who is the sharpest beach ball of them all. Let the games begin!

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

The Value of Opportunity

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Football, perhaps more than any other sport, is all about opportunity.  At the highest level the separation between stars and scrubs is often not a measure of talent but rather the chance players are given to put that talent on display.  For every Peyton Manning that was drafted into stardom there is a Tom Brady that toiled in obscurity until they got their shot (thank you, Drew Bledsoe).  As an avid fantasy footballer, part of what I try to do in building winning teams is to assess players not only on what they have done (given their opportunity), but what they could do if given the chance.  Historically sleepers are identified from one season to the next by determining which players’ values will take a spike due to either an increased role, a change of scenery, or an improved surrounding cast.  This logic seems sound in a lot of ways but it also leaves a lot to chance.  If I’m taking a shot on a guy in the mid-to-late rounds of my draft, I want to know that given the opportunity he will put points on the board.  Perhaps the best predictor of what a player is capable of with the ball in their hands is FPT or Fantasy Points per Touch.  Depending on the scoring of your league, you should have an idea which guys do the most with what they are given and then look for individuals in that group who may take advantage of an improved situation in the upcoming season.  The following lists of FPT all-stars compared to their top-tier peers are based on a standard PPR league for the 2009 season.  Call them sleepers if you want, but these are the guys you can trust to make the most of their opportunities when given the chance.

Quarterbacks

Top-Tier Peers:

Philip Rivers – .66 FPT
Drew Brees – .55 FPT
Peyton Manning – .52 FPT
Kurt Warner – .51 FPT
Jay Cutler – .46 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Shaun Hill – .50 FPT – I know he’s not sexy, but Shaun Hill wins football games and I have to think that when the chips are down Mike Singletary would rather have him behind center than an aging vet or an unproven rookie if the Niners go that route in April.  Young wideout Josh Morgan keeps getting better and I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco go WR early when the draft rolls around or make a play on Torry Holt or Anquan Boldin if and when they come available.  If he wins the gig (and I think he will) and plays a full season, you’ll look like a genius for nabbing Hill with one of the last picks in the draft while others reached for a big name QB early.

Trent Edwards – .40 FPT – The career path of quarterbacks that have played with TO can’t be ignored.  Yes, he’s a pain in the ass … yes, he does topless crunches in his driveway while fielding questions from reporters … yes, he has the emotional maturity of a jock strap … but … Jeff Garcia went to three Pro Bowls throwing him the rock, Donovan McNabb had the best season of his career when TO was flying like an Eagle, and Tony Romo bacame a household name (and landed some hotties) during Owens’ time in big D.  Edwards is already a very accurate passer and has displayed good intangibles with only a couple seasons under his belt.  I anticipate a BIG step forward for the Stanford alum in the upcoming season.

Tarvaris Jackson – .56 FPT – The only thing standing between T-Jack and fantasy production is one Bradford Childress.  There aren’t many men I detest more than the software engineer currently running the show in Minnesota.  When given the opportunity Jackson has made strides toward becoming a viable NFL starting quarterback (see his 95.4 QB rating and 9-2 TD-INT ratio in limited action last season).  For reasons beyond my comprehension the Viking’s brass wants to hand the reigns to the walking turnover that is Sage Rosenfels.  When that fails miserably and the Vikes stumble out of the gates, make sure Jackson isn’t floating out on your league’s free agent list and he will reward you with above average production.

Running Backs

Top-Tier Peers:

Maurice Jones-Drew – 1.02 FPT
Brian Westbrook – .92 FPT
LaDainian Tomlinson – .77 FPT
Michael Turner – .71 FPT
Adrian Peterson – .66 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Pierre Thomas – 1.12 FPT – When Thomas took over the reigns for the injured (again) Reggie Bush and aging Deuce McAllister, the Saints offense didn’t miss a beat.  In fact, the guy that played in front of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois took full advantage of his opportunity down the stretch last season and carried many fantasy owners to their respective championships.  Thomas proved to be a dynamic all-around threat as he displayed a nose for the goaline as well as above-average receiving skills out of the backfield.  Rumors have been swirling as they always do this time of year, but barring a reunion between Drew Brees and LT in the Big Easy, Thomas looks to be the guy to own in the Saint’s backfield heading forward.

Felix Jones – 1.41 FPT – How did Arkansas not win a national championship with Jones and Darren McFadden in their backfield?  I’m pretty sure I could have coached that team to 11 wins using a Tecmo Bowl playbook.  This silky smooth sophomore was putting up HUGE numbers with his limited chances early in the season before suffering a hamstring injury that translated into what was essentially a lost season.  Never fear, reports out of Dallas are that Jerry Jones wants to hand a bigger portion of the workload to Jones to help keep sledgehammer Marion Barber fresh.  The loss of the Tuman Oeadache also means the Cowboys will rely more on the ground game this season.  Don’t expect Jones to keep averaging nearly a point and a half per touch, but 950 yards and 8 touchdowns with contributions in the passing game and special teams is well within his reach.

Ahmad Bradshaw – .67 FPT – This one may be a stretch for some of you, but when I look around the league at muddy backfield situations in Denver, New England and Baltimore, you could do a lot worse than nabbing this diminutive fireball in the mid-to-late rounds of your league’s draft.  Bradshaw will be 23 at the start of the season, and he has averaged 6.1 YPC for his career in a limited role with the G-Men.  Derrick Ward’s breakout season stunted his growth last year, but word out of Giants camp is that the coaching staff is excited to see what Bradshaw can do with an increased role this year.  Translation: this guy could reward savvy owners with 800-900 yards and handful of touchdowns.  Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser but he doesn’t catch passes and he doesn’t stay healthy for full seasons … look for Bradshaw to open some eyes this year.

Wide Receivers

Top-Tier Peers:

Calvin Johnson – 3.38 FPT
Greg Jennings – 3.23 FPT
Larry Fitzgerald – 3.19 FPT
Roddy White – 2.89 FPT
Andre Johnson – 2.71 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Vincent Jackson – 3.30 FPT – Jackson’s size and speed combo served as a frustration to his owners in his first three seasons in the NFL.  Surely a guy with his physical gifts would dominate the league … it was just a matter of time.  Well, fantasy owners are not known for their patience but dynasty leaguers that held on to Jackson during his steady upward trends early in his career reaped the rewards of a very quietly productive season in 2008.  A physical freak at 6’5″ 230 lbs with a lightning quick explosion off the line and tremendous leaping ability, Jackson is a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses.  Another year in the saddle for Philip Rivers and the emergence of Jackson as a legitimate red zone threat could result in a top-5 WR next season for those that call his number on draft day.

Steve Breaston – 2.40 FPT – This is me saying I don’t think Boldin is coming back to the Cards.  Nobody (including the Cardinal’s front office as evidenced by the selection of Early Doucet last April) saw this second year man from Michigan ascending to the ranks of fantasy relevance before last season.  When Boldin exits stage east (hello Philly?), Breaston will step into his vacated spot opposite Larry Fitzgerald.  With the attention the braided one will command on the other side, Kurt Warner and Breaston will be free to carve up opposing defenses between the 20s.  Double-digit touchdowns may be a bit optimistic with the variety of weapons at Warner’s disposal, but 90 catches and 1,200 yards is well within reach for this dynamic speedster.  Invest.

Lee Evans – 2.80 FPT – Uncertainty at the quarterback position and a lack of talent around him have hurt Evans’ production throughout his NFL career.  Despite these limiting factors, the supremely talented former Badger has never missed a game and has never averaged less than 15 yards per catch in any of his five seasons.  Enter TO … with the flamboyant prima donna drawing the attention of defenses and media outlets alike, Evans will be freed up to work over the top without facing the double and triple teams that have held his stats in check thus far.  Another point to consider … Lee’s numbers have never been about quantity but QUALITY of his catches (averaging less than 60 catches per season) … TO commanding 80-90 balls will not cut into his value as some have speculated.  I anticipate a HUGE season for Evans in the 75-80 catch neighborhood with 1,400 yards and double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.

first published on March 10, 2009

2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

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Running backs are the key to fantasy football. If you blow your first two picks on a receiver and a quarterback, you have to really luck out to find yourself in the playoffs come Week 14 (or where ever you start the post-season). The same can be said for blowing your first two picks, if your top two studs start slow or get hurt, you’ll find yourself in an early season hole. These tiered rankings should help you find value at the running back position throughout your draft.

I

  1. Maurice Jones-Drew (1)
  2. Matt Forte (2)
  3. Adrian Peterson (3)
  4. Michael Turner (4)

My first tier is bigger than most, with a different order than most. What can I say, it pays to be different. Almost every ranking I’ve seen has Peterson and Turner or Turner and Peterson cuddling up like puppies at the top of their player rankings. Not me, oh no, not I. Talent-wise, sure, Peterson takes the cake, but Percy Harvin only takes away from his touches, and the guy is going to take one to many hits one of these days. Production-wise, I see how he can go #1, but right in front of Turner at #3 is where I have AP. Turner was a stud last year and despite the high carry load in ’08, I predict his ’09 will be right in the top tier of backs. He doesn’t have too much wear on his tires, but his team has only gotten stronger in the talented weapon department. His back-up is talented, and added to one of the best young receivers in the game is probably the best receiving TE ever, Tony Gonzalez. Less touches for Turner means less fantasy production, but still plenty of action to be considered a top pick. With everyone’s Top 2 at 3 and 4 respectively, that means my top 2 looks a little different. Matt Forte busts in at 2 on my sheets, as he should be smiling from ear to ear at the addition of Jay Cutler. I don’t think Forte will catch as many passes as last season, Cutler’s not much of a dump down guy, but he will get a lot of carries, he will be playing against defenses that have to worry about the air attack, and thus his YPC will go from 3.9 to 4.4 – at least that’s what I’ve got. That moves his production up – and last year his production was consistent and legit. Forte will be great, but MJD will be better. That offensive line is healthy and stocked with more talent than it’s ever been. Jones Drew will aproach 18-20 carries a game, and that is what gets him to the top of my chart. He’s never been a high-touch back, but he’s always been a big time game breaker, touchdown maker, and fantasy producer. That’s a lot of ers, but they are all good. When you add 8-10 more touches a game to his talent, you get the best fantasy back in the league.

II

  1. LaDainian Tomlinson (5)
  2. Chris Johnson (6)
  3. Steve Slaton (7)
  4. Frank Gore (8)
  5. Steven Jackson (9)
  6. Brian Westbrook (10)

My 2nd tier is 2 backs heavier than my 1st, which means I have a lot of guys resting near the same value. Which means I’d rather be at the end of drafts, picking in the 8-12 slot – you’re guaranteed a good one, maybe not sexy, but sexy gets you money as a playboy model, not a spot in fantasy playoffs. LT gets the 5th spot on my list. Dude may be 30, but he’s one of the best backs of all time, and he’ll be a great option again this year. This might be the last year LT breaks my top 10, but I’d love to get him on my squad, especially where he’s going in most drafts (about 10th overall). Chris Johnson is a stud, and many have him pegged with more touches in 2009, but I’m not so sure. LenDale White is a productive big man, and he’s in as good a shape as he’s ever been in since somebody gave him his first twinky. People are stupid, they jump on the “fat” band wagon, but White is in good shape and will steal yards and touchdowns from the owners taking Chris Johnson in the Top 5. However, he’s still worth an early pick, and he has as much upside as anyone. He’s the Usain Bolt of running backs, on a different speed level than everyone else. Steve Slaton is a flat out stud on a team that will be one of the Top 10 offenses in 2009, and a lot of that has to do with his all around skill set. Great receiver, great runner inside, outside – he does it all. He may be small, but all he needs to do is stay healthy to easily be a top 10 back in his 2nd season. Gore is a great player on and offense that should be improved in ’09. It is also an offense that won’t go away from their main guy. If healthy, Gore is as talented as any back in the league, and with a new smash mouth approach, he’ll be a nice top 10 guy. Steven Jackson is a beast, and while I dig his talent, his offense is young and Marc Bulger is a sack artist – or at least a canvas for other sack artists. That won’t help the Rams stay in running situations. But Jackson might go back to his early years, and I expect his rushing yards to be easily over 1000 while his receiving yards get up to 600+ yards as well. Will the Rams be in touchdown position that often? That’s why he slips a bit. Brian Westbrook is old, yes, but he stays in my 2nd tier because all he does is produce. He was pretty inconsistent last season, despite his nice end-game numbers, most of his stats came in big chunks. Still, this offense only gets better with additions of young talent, and Westy should be back to his old tricks (even though his age is catching up to his injury history) and still deserves to be a Top 10 back.

III

  1. DeAngelo Williams (11)
  2. Marion Barber (12)
  3. Kevin Smith (13)
  4. Brandon Jacobs (14)
  5. Clinton Portis (15)
  6. Ronnie Brown (16)
  7. Ryan Grant (17)

My 3rd tier has some stars from last year, yester year, and the future. DeAngelo Williams had a great year last season, better than any other back in the league, but Jonathan Stewart will stay healthy this year, and while that won’t make Williams a bum, it will keep him out of the Top 10. He’s a solid runner on a run-happy team, if he didn’t have one of the league’s most talented backs teaming up with him in the backfield then he’d easily bust into the Top 10. Marion Barber is a beast, one of my favorite backs in the league. He struggled as the Cowboys struggled last year, but before his injury he was a Top 5 back. This year he falls a bit because I can only imagine Felix Jones getting more carries, and even though Dallas will run more in ’09, Barber will be lucky to slip into the Top 10, but he’s still a solid #2 for your fantasy squad. Kevin Smith isn’t getting as much love as he deserves. Last year, on one of the worst teams in NFL history (worst record-wise) Kevin still rushed for just under 1000 yards and caught 39 passes as well. He’ll be a go to guy in this offense, an offense that is getting tougher up front. Brandon Jacobs is a beast, the scarriest guy to tackle in the NFL, but he’s a really big guy that runs fast, and that’s cause for concern (injury-wise and for defensive health). Jacobs will get his 100+ and a TD if he’s playing, that’s almost a given, but defenses will key in on him this coming season, and his health could easily have him missing the better part of 3-4 games. Still, with 12 games starting he’s a Top 15 player. He loses some in PPR leagues though. Clinton Portis is always good. He was a surprise fantasy all-star in the first half of last season, going for 940 yards and 7 TDs. He finished slow, like the Redskins, but still managed 1487 yards and 9 TDs and just over 1700 total yards for the season. He’s only 27 when the season starts. But he’s older than his age insists, and while I’d love to see him prove me wrong, it will be tough for him to duplicate last season’s stellar stats. He’s still a great #2 though. Ronnie Brown gets a lot of flak for getting most of his fantasy points in one week last season against New England. But I don’t worry about that. He’ll get more carries, more catches, and more touchdowns this season, and he’ll do it more consistently. A great all around back 2 years after knee surgery. Remember 2007 when he tore up the first half of the season? His numbers will be closer to that than last year’s totals. Ryan Grant is a beast. He started slow, hung on to a naggnig hammy injury, and got carries taken away from him during the first half. But this year his TDs will double, and he’ll run more efficiently. He runs down hill really hard, expect better things from him – I do.

IV

  1. Larry Johnson (18)
  2. Darren McFadden (19)
  3. Knowshon Moreno (20)
  4. Derrick Ward (21)
  5. Marshawn Lynch (22)
  6. Jonathan Stewart (23)

I might rank LJ higher than everyone else. I guess I remember the guy that buried opposing defenders when they got in his way. He was a beast teaming up with Preist Holmes, and he was even better when he got the #1 gig a year later. Some stuff has happened, he was carrying a lot of baggage, and he didn’t get many carries last season. It won’t take the new coach long to realize that he’s a top option on the team, and he’ll get back to scoring touchdowns and getting 20 touches a game. McFadden is too talented to struggle again. Last season was last season, you can’t always rely on what happened last year when drafting your team. Take a chance on a kid with all the talent in the world on a team that is gung-ho about getting him the ball – even if they are a semi-pro franchise. Knowshon may be a rookie, and he may be in the same scheme that never produced a Top 20 fantasy back in New England, but he does it all. He may not have the best 40, but there’s players that get it, run well in pads, and go fast enough to win – that’s Moreno, he’ll show it in his rookie season. Derrick Ward is a very good runner that can do all the little things. I honestly think he’s a better back than Jacobs, because he can catch too. I expect him to get most of the looks in Tampa, and that line is better than many people think. Marshawn Lynch will only play 13 games – but so what, so will a lot of running backs this season. You’ll be able to get him late for missing the first three games. Do it. Then even later pick up Fred Jackson, now you have a starting back, a good one, for two later picks. Lynch doesn’t get huge numbers, but he always gets solid stats, that helps your squad win every week. Jonathan Stewart, in my cocky opinion, is the best running back on this list, but he’s got a great back he’s sharing time with. Still, if Williams and Stewart are more even this season, splitting stats 50-50, that still makes for over 1170 yards and 14 touchdowns for J-Stew – that’s good production where he’s being drafted. Plus his upside is unlimited.

V

  1. Pierre Thomas (24)
  2. Reggie Bush (25)
  3. Joseph Addai (26)
  4. LenDale White (27)
  5. Ray Rice (28)
  6. Felix Jones (29)
  7. Beanie Wells (30)
  8. Thomas Jones (31)
  9. Julius Jones (32)
  10. Willie Parker (33)
  11. Cedric Benson (34)

Pierre Thomas would be ranked higher if I thought his coach would do anything right. The kid is talented, always has been, always produces when given the chance, and was the best back in NO last season. That being said, that clown in a man-suit running the Saints isn’t to be trusted, but Pierre is still Top 20. Even if he runs less, Bush is still a great receiver out of the backfield, and was having a pretty damn good fantasy season before an injury derailed his year. The Clown loves him, so he’ll get his touches. Bush is still magic with the football when he’s in space, he’s worth a pick in the 6th or 7th, where he’s being drafted. Addai might be good again this year, you never know, but it doesn’t seem like the Colts trust him much. That’s not a franchise that wastes early picks, and them taking a great all around college back in the 1st round doesn’t bread confidence in Addai. Still, Joseph is young and he’s had a couple pretty good years in a pretty potent offense – sounds like a buy low candidate to me. LenDale White can’t find love anywhere but here. You might think I just like fat running backs, but if you think LenDale is just a fat guy then you are an idiot. The guy can run the ball, always has been able to, and gets in the end-zone. This year he lost 20 lbs in the summer, and he’s in better shape than anytime in his career. Everyone can hate him, I’ll “round” off my Top 20 with his name. Ray Rice is in an interesting situation. The Ravens have put him as the #1, but you could argue that Le’Ron and Willis have shown better skills than Rice. Still, the Ravens see something, and they can pound the rock. Ray can compile the yards as a smart runner, a pretty good style for the Ravens offensive scheme. Felix Jones is amazing. If he stays healthy and gets the touches Dallas wants him to get, even this will be too low for his total output. But he’s a little-ish guy, and he has been hurt a few times. He’ll get a lot of TO’s touches though, so he’s definitely flex-worthy. Beanie Wells gets here on talent alone. He’s really big and really fast, which like I’ve said, is a recipe for injury. Still, he gets into a pretty nice offensive situation and should be able to beat out Hightower and his 2.8 YPC. Beanie is talented. Julius Jones might be an after-thought to everyone, but look at his stats, if you give him the ball 20 times he will do work for you. It happened in Dallas, and last year Seattle, and before both of those in Notre Dame. Julius is the unquestioned started in Seattle, and could prove to be a nice #2 for fantasy owners that take a chance on him. Willie Parker just keeps doing work. He won the job from Rashard Mendenhall (who I think is the better running in Pitt) last season, and put up pretty mediocre numbers while missing 5 games. His totals still project like a Top 25 back over 16 games, but I don’t think he’ll be the guy getting 20 carries next year, Rashard ruins some of Willie’s value. Cedric Benson is a nice story. He never figured it out in Chicago, but he found a home in Cincinnati last year, and cleaned up his act. That’s not how it usually goes, but give the guy two stars for swimming against the flow. Benson could benefit from Palmer being back in Tiger stripes, as his YPC and touchdown chances should go up this season.

VI

  1. Rashard Mendenhall (35)
  2. Jamal Lewis (36)
  3. Donald Brown (37)
  4. Darren Sproles (38)

Backups and Jamal Lewis. Lewis still isn’t “old” but he is old. Age doesn’t tell the whole story, but the guy has many miles on his tires. Still, Mangini has a decent offensive line in Cleveland, and Lewis is the guy that should get the ball. Not much to be scared of from Cleveland’s offense, unless they revert back to 2007, but Lewis should still be able to get over 1000 and 6 touchdowns as the #1 in Ohio. Mendenhall, who I have ranked just ahead of Lewis, is super talented. I thought him and J-Stew were the best backs in last year’s rookie class. He got hurt early, and couldn’t unseat Willie Parker prior to that, but he looked solid against one of the league’s best defenses (Baltimore) before they knocked him out for the year. Plus I really like him. If he gets the carries, he’ll be an epic steal on draft day. Donald Brown looks like a pro back to me, a solid one. Joseph Addai has never really impressed me as a runner. He’s still a rookie and he’s still a back-up, but you never know, and I’d like to have this guy just in case. Darren Sproles might have a case for being the more productive back in San Diego late last year. He certainly did more with his opportunity, and made himself a lot of money in the process. He’s still a back-up this season, and LT does it all, but Sproles might get enough love to be ownable all year long, as a back-up/flex – not just an injury replacement. Those are the best kinds of back-ups to own.

VII

  1. Fred Jackson (39)
  2. Leon Washington (40)
  3. Jerious Norwood (41)

Fred Jackson has done pretty good work when given the chance in Buffalo. This season he’ll get 3 games as the starter for the Bills, and if he succeeds in those 3 games, I don’t think the Bills can continue to give Lynch 85% of the carries. Jackson is a great late pick-up that could be a starting RB the first few weeks – plus he has nice upside. Leon Washington is obviously the back the Jets value more than any other. But Thomas Jones was a Top 10 fantasy back last season. It will be interesting to see what kind of touches Washington gets this year, but I’m guessing it’s more than he got last season. He’s always done well when give the chance, the problem is, this late, what kind of chance will he get? He’s a lot like Sproles, but Washington has a rookie QB or Kellen Clemmens as his signal caller – hello 8 man fronts. Jerious Norwood, a YPC machine and a guy that can take it the distance any time. He’s a great hand-cuff for Turner owners because he’s startable even as a back-up. I wouldn’t want in my starting line-up every week, but last year I was happy to have him on more than a couple occasions.

VIII

  1. Tim Hightower (42)
  2. Chester Taylor (43)
  3. LeSean McCoy (44)
  4. Ahmad Bradshaw (45)
  5. Willis McGahee (46)
  6. Le’Ron McClain (47)
  7. Fred Taylor (48)
  8. Sammy Morris (49)
  9. Michael Bush (50)
  10. Laurence Maroney (51)
  11. Shonn Greene (52)
  12. Justin Fargas (53)
  13. Ricky Williams (54)

Alright, this is my last list, and I’m putting them all in the same tier because I’m not so sure that I would be excited on having any of these guys on my team. Maybe the upside of McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw’s chance at sure thing numbers when Jacobs gets hurt, Chester Taylor because he’s a very good back with a good O-line, even though he’s stuck behind one of the most physically talented backs in a long time, if not ever, and Tim Hightower, becaue there’s a good chance he’ll start. So maybe those four guys should all be in a different tier, but I have to be honest, they’re upside might not match up with the opportunity some of these guys will get. Willis still has talent, if he wasn’t in a little dog house behind two other backs, McClain does well with his touches, but doesn’t get much guaranteed to him. Fred Taylor has always put up numbers and might, just might be the #1 in New England, but that’s a team that I can’t predict carries for, so I wouldn’t want to rely on him. Sammy Morris, same thing as Fred. Plus Laurence Maroney is the guy I think is most talented. Michael Bush has all the tools and is a beast, but he’s behind a first round pick who has better tools, and another guy that has been productive as a starter, Justin Fargas. Shonn Greene is a rookie, and will probably be the thunder to Leon’s lightning next season, but I wouldn’t expect a ton from him this year. And then there’s Ricky Williams, what’s a running back list without Ricky? I think Ronnie Brown should get an even bigger portion of the load this coming season, really limiting Ricky’s stock.

That’s the list, hop that helps!

Ask Papa Weimer: 2009 #1

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Hey there, I’m back and at it again. If you know me, you can dig it – I’m an old SOB with a little bit of love for making a mockery of the game while giving help to the fantasy junkies out there. Once again I’ll be writing “Ask Papa Weimer” segments throughout the season based solely on your questions and comments during the year. Now, more than ever, is a busy fantasy time, and there’s lots of questions already coming in more than a month before the season starts. If you feel the urge, want a question asked, or feel like attempting to make a fool out of me anytime from now until the end of the season, do so by mailing your words to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – you ask I’ll answer, as easy as that. My good man David e-mailed me a bunch of questions, so I figured I’d have a nice “Owed to David” Q&A period. Here’s me doing work…

#1 – “I saw Lucky Lester’s article on the QBs: very interesting. If you had to get a good QB would you go after one of your first and 2nd tier guys, or would you wait? Last year you told me about Cutler, and he was great even with the interceptions. It seems you are high on Schaub. If I go after him as my #1 who should I get as a backup?”

If I had to get a top QB (First two tiers), I might shoot for Aaron Rodgers. That guy is legit and his offensive weapons are a plenty. Plus he plays the Lions and Vikings 4 times, and even the Bears aren’t awesome at stopping the air attack. Playing in GB late in the season didnt’ seem to bother him last year. But honestly, unless the value was right, I’d probably wait. I’ve never been a guy to grab a QB early. If I wasn’t going for a top tier guy, I think Matt Schaub and David Garard should both have big seasons, Matt Ryan and Matt Hasselbeck are both high upside guys for where you can get them, even though Ryan is riding some hype – he doesn’t seem to be going too high. I wouldn’t overspend for him, but he could have a huge year. Remember, they’re still going to hand the ball off around 500 times, tough to pile up 300+ yard games with that being the case, but lots of weapons and lots of talent. If you’re going super sleepers, Sage Rosenfels, Jason Campbell, Daunte Culpepper, and Jake Delhomme could be steals. I think Jake will be better this year, a couple seasons after surgery, Daunte couldn’t have lost all his talent and they have a couple good offensive players to help him (CJ and Kevin Smith), Campbell will be better this year (that’s just a fact, kid has enough skills and now has a year in that offense unde his belt), and Sage (if he gets the job) has BB, Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor, and this little guy named Adrian Peterson to help him produce some offense. With all the focus of oposing defenses keying in on the run-game, Sage could put up some nice numbers.

#2 “I am in 2 leagues. One is a PPR and the other is traditional scoring. If you had to list 6 RBs and WRs that were a must have. Who would they be in each of the different formats. Also do you have any RBs or WRs that would be good values flying under the radar?”

6WRs – Must Have:
Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, and Roddy White (but he might be overvalued, and I like those top 5 more I think. I say this because there are so many weapons in Atlanta now, and with so many carries for Turner and Norwood, I think it might be tough for White to get as many looks as last season, but the kid is the real deal) – but for a couple must have lower level guys – Vincent Jackson, Dominek Hixon, Anthony Gonzalez – all three aren’t valued very high, and all three have a great chance to put up great numbers. Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings lose a little ground in PPR where Eddie Royal, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe move up a little. Reggie Wayne too. A super sleeper couple would go to Hines Ward (still nobody loves that guy, but so consistent) and even more sleepy, Josh Morgan, and even sleepier – Mike Thomas (but he might be too sleepy to draft, as he’s just a 4th round rookie, just keep your eye on him in jacksonville). Mike Walker might be a safer sleeper in Jax, very talented young player that has battled injuries much of his pro career – but next to Torry Holt he could be very sneaky good.

6RBs- Must Have:
Maurice Jones Drew, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, Steve Slaton – I love LT’s value this year though, he might go in late round 1, or round 2, and he could be had at a good price in auctions – but I think he’ll be good, despite turning 30. Steve Slaton and Jones Drew could have huge years as key backs in their offenses, both teams will be improved this season. Slaton, Drew, and Forte all get raised value in PPR while AP and Turner lose some umph, but should be Top 5-6 picks anyway. Sleepers would go McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall – all 1st rounders last year, weird. I’ll throw Derrik Ward and Felix Jones into that list too, neither seem to be getting their due love. A couple rookies I like this year, (aside from Knowshon and Beanie of course) – LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown – solid runners, and Brown does everything well. A deeeeeeep sleeper, Justin Forsett in Seattle, real talented small back, so very different than Jones and Ducket, and from what I remember that new Seattle head guy knows how to use little talented backs to compile yardage.

#3 “How would you rank the following TEs  Olson, Z Miller, Carlson, D Keller, Cooley, Celek, Daniels?”

Cooley, Miller, Daniels, Olson, Carlson, Keller, and Celek…. Cooley is my favorite, but the next four guys are in a basic tie for 2nd. I wouldn’t waste a top pick on a top TE (Gonzo, Witten, Gates, Cooley – though Cooley is cheaper always) because those four guys (Miller, Daniels, Olson, and Carlson) are pretty damn consistent for their cheap draft slot.

#4 “Any defenses jump out at you this season?”

I like what the Bears did late last season, and Tommie Harris looks healthy – that guy is an absolute beast when healthy, a true game changer at DT. The Chargers should be better, too – and of course the Ravens are always legit. The Titans will keep doing work, but they lost some power up front. But don’t spend much on defenses, none look brilliant to me ala the old Bears or Ravens, and overspending on Ds can kill you.

#5 “I would like to hear your thoughts on LT, S Slaton, Grant, Ronnie and Donald Brown, Beanie, McFadden,  Barber, J Stewart, and Portis?”

Above I said that I love LT and Slaton this year, Ryan Grant and Ronnie Brown should be good values too. Ryan even more than Ronnie, more touchdowns and yards for Grant this year, almost a guarantee. Beanie is always an injury risk because he is a big guy that runs really fast, seems to spell trouble, but what an opportunity for him to shine in Arizona – he’s a much better option than 2.8 a game Tim Hightower. McFadden is a good sleeper as is The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart, Stewart might just be the highest scoring fantasy back in Carolina this year, and considering how much later you can get him than DeAngelo, he could be a steal. I’m afraid about Portis, even though he’s still young, 27 going on  35 you know… But he seems to be slipping in drafts, so could be a good bargain. Marion Barber, a guy I love as a player as much as anyone in the league, but I’m not sure how many touches he’ll get. Still, with TO out that makes room for 140 or so targets, which should keep Barber in the action, and he’s a very good receiver too – maybe more catches for him this year – more touchdowns this time around for sure. Still, there’s 3 good backs in Dallas – but Barber should be top 10 in production amongst RBs.

#6 “I do appreciate the tiers. They help a lot! Don’t  let Lucky leave out Andre this year though… Haha.”

That youngster won’t get away with that this year – you’d think he was the old, saggy, frump-housed old man. Andre’s going to be right at the top if Lucky knows what’s best for him. Good luck to ya David!

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 3

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There’s not much to be said about this group, not all that impressive, and not extremely disappointing either – which is too bad, because either or is at least interesting to reminisce about. As is, this is how this group did this week. LT’s 23 on Monday Night Football gave me a nice boost to get over the century mark and roll to 108 on the week – still, next week will be better!

QB: Tony Romo vs. Packers: I got 16 points from Tony because of his long touchdown pass to Miles Austin – still despite the rolling gut feeling that he was “going off”, I would have been better off taking one of the quarterbacks from the Saints/Broncos game. Dang me!

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. New York Jets: Tomlinson didn’t have a great day, I have to be honest, he carried the ball a bunch of times and managed just 2.7 yards per carry or something gross like that. Still, the Chargers handled the Jets and Tomlinson punched two in from close range. You can’t argue with his 23 fantasy points I guess, but 2.7 per against the Jets? He’ll turn things around, right?

RB: Michael Turner vs. KC: Big Mike in the Wood had a HUGE day, touchdown wise anyway. He didn’t pile up the 200+ yards like he did in Week 1, but Turner did put 3 touchdowns on the Chiefs – I had to love that. He posted 28 points for me.

WR: Plaxico Burress vs. Bengals: 3 catches for 45 yards, 7 fantasy points in a ppr league – thanks Plax. I ditched Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitz so I could put you on my squad – last time I do that!

WR: Steve Smith vs. Minnesota: 4 grabs for 70 yards, but the Panthers needed to get Smith the ball more. Still, it was a risky selection and it back fired a little. 11 points for a WR in a PPR league isn’t much to get excited about.

TE: Jeremy Shockey vs. Denver: Shockey had 8 receptions for 75 yards, not a bad day for the big guy. Anytime a tight end can get my 15 fantasy points I have to appreciate their efforts.

K: Josh Brown vs. Seattle: 8 fantasy points form Mr. Brown and he got booed like he was Johnny Damon leaving for the Yankees- I love that. Still, 8 points is probably an all time high for kickers in this deal for me.

D: Patriots vs. Miami: I don’t know how much they scored. I’m not checking. They got handled. I’ll take a zero and be happy about it.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrard: Garrard threw another interception without tossing or rushing for a touchdown. He had just 167 yards, which gives him, what, 4 fantasy points? Oops! F

Aaron Rodgers: For how out of sync the Packers looked against Dallas, Rodgers put up some solid numbers. His late touchdown run was a nice helper, and he did throw for just under 300 yards in this one. I think Aaron’s 19 fantasy points were nice. I’ll take an A- just because he didn’t toss a touchdown.

JT O’Sullivan: JT put up 189 yards and two touchdown passes without an interception. He didn’t tear up the yardage totals, but he put in some nice work going for 19 fantasy points of his own – I bet that gets him into the top 10. A

Maurice Jones Drew: “Best runner in Jacksonville hits gold against a Bon Sanders-less Colts team.” Yep! MJD went for 100+ rushing, 50+ receiving, and scored a big touchdown on way to a Jaguars win. Gotta love the short guy (little is a lie, he’s freaking solid). 25 points grades out as an A+

Julius Jones: The Hawks rushed for 245 yards against the worst defense in football, St. Louis, and Julius took 22 rushes for 140 yards and a touchdown. He also caught a pass, giving him 21 fantasy points on the day. A+

Sammy Morris: Down 21-6 at half time the Patriots weren’t in the running mode. Yeah, I didn’t see this coming – obviously. Morris had 3 points giving me an F for this sleeper pick.

Chad Ocho Cinco: Carson Palmer had a really nice day, but it was TJ, not Chad, that was getting it done for the Bengals. Ocho Cinco had Cinco fantasy points. F

Anthony Gonzalez: 2 catches for 37 yards, Peyton went to Marvin more, and Dallas Clark came back this week and stole some looks from Anthony – still, Gonzo grabbed 2 balls for 37 yards in the Colts loss. D for this one.

Derrick Mason: 4 grabs for 42 yards – apparently I was wrong about the Ravens being behind in this one and having to throw to catch up. Mason had 8 fantasy points – that’s a C- maybe.

Todd Heap: 2 catches for 32 yards – I’m beginning to want to drop Mr. Heap. 5 fantays points, maybe a D+

Buffalo: Not a great showing from the Bills – they did enough to get my 8 fantasy points in my game, but they didn’t do what I needed them to do this week, that’s for sure. C-

Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Jamal Lewis: 12 rushes for 56 yards, not bad. 3 catches for 27 yards, not bad. No scores was a bummer, but Jamal didn’t have as bad a game as I thought he’d have. 10 fantasy points for a guy that you should trade for if you can. Boy, does Brady Quinn start next week though?

DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart: Williams had 10 carries for 27 yards (also 2 catches for 17 yards) and Stewart had 7 carries for 15 yards – but he did have a touchdown. Still, if you started either back hoping for a decent fantasy game, you were tricked. Sitting these guys was a good call.

Chris Perry: You know what, against a very good rush defense Chris had a fine day. 20 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown. I was wrong about his outing, he was a solid start with 16 fantasy points (2 catches for 19 yards as well).

Hines Ward: Hines had his first touchdownless week this season, and he grabbed just 4 passes for 34 yards. Nothing exciting about that.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 3

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It wasn’t beautiful, that’s for sure, I lost some close ones and killed it on most of the beatdowns – I say most, because lord knows I didn’t expect the Patriots to get whacked by the Dolphins. Anyway, I was 8-7 headed into Monday Night Football – and since I felt like sharing this is the review.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (-4): (WINNER) Turner went for over 100 yards with 3 touchdowns to his name. The kid is for real. If you still don’t believe you must be drunk. The Chiefs couldn’t stay up with the Falcons offensive attack, even thought Larry Johnson put up some nice numbers of his own. Falcons at 2-1… Nice.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Buffalo Bills: (WINNER) “I think Oakland is better than many give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t quite the 10.5 point powerhouse at home. Take the points and the Raiders here. Expect JaMarcus Russell to have a two touchdown game, and the Raiders to stay close in Buffalo.” Well, the Raiders didn’t run it that well, but JaMarcus did have his two touchdown game, one rushing – one passing, and the Raiders were a last second field goal away from ruining my survivor pool after just 3 weeks. But, the Bills pulled it out, and while my survivor streak lives on, I also get a nice win here.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-5): (WINNER) “I don’t think Houston’s run defense can slow down the Titans rushing attack enough to cover in Tennessee.” Honestly, Houston’s run defense was decent. They allowed two rushing touchdowns, but holding the Titans to 150 yards on 36 carries isn’t that bad. But Matt Schaub didn’t have his A game going. He threw 3 interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and the Texans didn’t stand a chance against a very good Titans defense. When will Houston get an offensive line that can protect a quarterback?

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants (-13): (LOSS) “Until the Bengals show me that they are more together than a bucket of busted Legos, I’m not even considering taking them at anything less than +17.” Alright, now that the Bengals have showed me something (though they are still 0-3 because of some stone cold heroic throws from Eli Manning) I will start considering them against the spread. The Giants pulled out an overtime victory (thought I was rooting hard against them because of survivor pool purposes) but the Bengals covered easily. This is the Bengals team everyone expected. They might have thrown up a fluke good game against a good team, but I have a feeling they’ll get it together now and be competitive. Still, I lost.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ Washington Redskins: (LOSS) “I understand that the NFC East hasn’t lost a game out of their own conference this season. It’s only been two weeks, but it is definitely the scariest conference in football.” Well, the NFC East still hasn’t lost a game out of their conference so far this season. The Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Redskins all did damage against their respective opponents. The Cardinals were just another team in the NFC East warpath. Washington won by a touchdown and gave me another L.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-12.5): (LOSSSSS!!!!) “This is going to be one of those Patriotic blowouts. Miami is still one of the worst teams in football and despite Tom Brady’s absence, the Patriots are still one of the best.” Hmmmm…. Have I been tricked? Have we been absolutely April fooled? I’d like to think not. In fact, all teams are subject to a bad game. The Patriots just happened to have one of their worst games ever and Ronnie Brown was a man possessed on Sunday (the cat was responsible for 5 touchdowns – dirty). I lost this one, sure, but I have to think this loss gives the Patriots some nice value down next week – unless of course the Jets are much worse than we all thought (we’ll see Monday Night).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Chicago Bears: (WINNER) “I know the Bears are 2-0, but I still don’t see them as a good team. Maybe that changes this week if they can fend off the Bucs, a solid team all around, but my bet is that doesn’t happen.” A couple things happened in this contest: 1, The Bears did prove to me that they are a solid team – a group I have greatly underrated to this point, their defense is good enough to allow their offense to keep running the ball, and Matt Forte is a beast – they’ll be in almost every game they play. 2, the Bucs couldn’t run the ball, but they were good enough to realize that and take what the Bears gave them. Brian Griese should never have 400+ passing yards, heck, 300 is a stretch – but the Bears wouldn’t let the Bucs run and so Griese just passed – that shows me that they will be a force in the NFC South. They aren’t one dimensional anymore.

Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3): (WINNER) “I don’t see Carolina’s rushing attack working too well in Minnesota, and I do think their offensive attack and winning chances depend on that. Gus Frerotte starts this week in Minnesota, so the Panthers will have more to worry about through the air. We’ll see, but I have to believe that the Vikings don’t start the season 0-3. Take the Vikes to get their first win and by just enough to cover at home.” The Vikings won by 10, and most of that W was because the Panthers couldn’t run the ball. It didn’t matter who was toting the rock for the Panthers, they couldn’t do anything against that ferocious defensive line in Minnesota. 1-2 is much better than 0-3, just ask the Browns.

St. Louis Rams (+11) @ Seattle Seahawks: (LOSS) Alright, I’m off the Rams. Right now, this team has to be one of the worst professional football teams I’ve seen in a long time. The Dolphins last season? No way – they were decent. Everyone aside from Tory Holt looks terrible in St. Louis. That Steven Jackson cat that just pulled in all that dough? He skips around in the backfield like a damn jumping jack, never attacking the line with any force whatsoever. Killing me. Bulger? Please. The offensive line – they are probably most of the reason for Bulger and Jackson playing like scared mice. I was DEAD wrong about this one, and I apologize completely.

Detroit Lions (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers: (LOSS) Boy, if there wasn’t a team from St. Louis I would absolutely hammer the Lions right now. Detroit plays like every opponent is tougher than they are. They can’t stop anyone – just like Mike Ditka said on Sunday morning. Ditka was right, the Lions defense is abysmal… Someone give Matt Millen another year at the helm of this beast!

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos (-4.5): (LOSS) Absolutely screwed! That’s right, you can see this game a couple ways – either the Denver Broncos should have lost against a last second field goal, or the way I see it. If Denver just runs the ball and the clock goes down, then they kick a field goal to go up 5. But no… Splinter has to get cute with his little Ninja Horsies, and Scheffler fumbles the ball, and now New Orleans has a chance. I should have covered here – that was a load of BS. Not only that but Splinter still gets the win for his Broncos and everyone isn’t killing him all over national TV. Last week he pulls a stunt and gets a win for it, this week his dumb play backfires and he still gets a win. Oh, and I lose! DAMN IT! (Sorry, I’m a little frustrated with this outcome)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): (WINNER) Let me say that I am stunned the Eagles iced the Steelers like this without Westy for most of the game. The best player on the field goes down early, after just 5 carries for 12 yards, and the Eagles D up tough, sacking Big Ben like it was their job, even knocking the big cat out of the game late. The Eagles didn’t put up a gaggle of yards or touchdowns, but they did what they needed to do and got a big win against a tough AFC team.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “Bob Sanders’ injury wins me over to the dogs in this one. I think the Jaguars will run all over the Colts on Sunday. This is a pretty big game for both teams, and Jacksonville has looked anything but solid thus far, but my instinct is to trust my gut, and my gut tells me that Jacksonville has been playing well below their talent level, and that will stop now. At 0-2 there’s not much room to mess around, and I don’t imagine they’ll come out throwing all over Indy. Maurice Jones Drew should get 15-20 carries and Fred Taylor will get his touches as well. If that happens, and I believe it will, the Jaguars and Colts will both be sitting at 1-2 after Week 3.” I just quoted everything I said in my picks column because it worked perfectly in this game.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (LOSS) (LOSS) (LOSS) I’ll take the hit for this one. Up at half I thought the Browns would come out and shut down the Ravens. I was wrong. I was wrong about a lot in this game. I would like to say this once again, in case everyone is missing the link, this Browns team is EXACTLY like the Saints from last year. Right?

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER)  The best team in football beat a very good team in Green Bay on Sunday Night. Unless the Cowboys really stumble, they look like one hell of a team to beat.


theRUNDOWN: Week 3

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Week 3 has some happy match-ups – big time sits – and a couple that have me wondering what I’ve got myself into – oh the intrigue! This old man played nick knack paddy whack, gave a dog a bone, and then went with Jill up to the well and filled her pocket full of posies. Believe that ryhme, son! Here’s my best plays of the week.

QB: Tony Romo vs. Packers: I don’t know why, maybe because there will be another guy putting up points on the other team, but Romo is giving me that 4 touchdown vibe. After a tough start, Romo turned it on and burned the Eagles last week. I say he does the same against another good defense.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. New York Jets: I have to get him right some time right? Is LT too old? Is he done? Is his injury holding him back? I’m answering no to all of those, heck, I’m answering, NO! LT goes off against the Jets – that’s my bet. If he randomly doesn’t play, then I’ll switch my pick to Sproles.

RB: Michael Turner vs. KC: The Burner will be leaving jet streams all over the field on Sunday. The Chiefs are bad – Turner is good, he will run like the wind – the wind carrying a freaking anvil. This kid is a beast, watch him run with admiration. Plus, I always wanted to start LT and Mike in my best options list.

WR: Plaxico Burress vs. Bengals: I have no reason to believe this, but I think the Bengals hold close in this game, put up some points, and keep Eli throwing. If that’s the case, Burress goes wild. Even if it isn’t, I’m sure the Giants will throw in the first half – that would make Burress a nice option.

WR: Steve Smith vs. Minnesota: Because now that I can I will. I love me some Steve Smith – he’s a more seasoned version of Eddie Royal and I believe he torches the Vikings.

TE: Jeremy Shockey vs. Denver: He’s the best receiver they have right now, the safeties in Denver don’t scare me, and this game will be chalked full of points. It just makes sense.

K: Josh Brown vs. Seattle: Not that it matters but I might as well try.

D: Patriots vs. Miami: This defense is putting a lot on their shoulders, seems like they’d dominate this game with all that confidence.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrard: I know he’s really struggled, but that’s how he’s become a sleeper – Bob’s absence kills the Colts D.

Aaron Rodgers: Against Dallas on the main state? You bet I still like Rodgers. But another good one here and he can’t be considered sleeper material.

JT O’Sullivan: Martz versus the Lions. You bet. Top 10 QB this week.

Maurice Jones Drew: Best runner in Jacksonville hits gold against a Bon Sanders-less Colts team.

Julius Jones: I like Julius to do his thing again, this time against the Rams.

Sammy Morris: He’ll get most of the carries and score a touchdown or two against Miami.

Chad Ocho Cinco: Is it bad when a guy changes his name and then doesn’t do dick? That’s where Mr. 85 is at right now. He’s in sleeper status. I think he has a nice game though, he’ll have to to keep the Bengals in it.

Anthony Gonzalez: The Jaguars don’t scare me in the secondary, and Gonzalez is becoming the #2 in Indy, shhhh… Don’t tell Marvin.

Derrick Mason: Lots of catches, almost 100 yards – that’s worth a sleeper pick.

Todd Heap: Heap will get some this week. Finally. Then you’ll pick him up off the waiver wire and be crushed in Week 4. But still – nice sleeper this week.

Buffalo: Not sure they are a sleeper, but they should handle the Raiders rushing attack.

Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Jamal Lewis: He always runs well against the Ravens, right? Not this time Jamal.

DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart: It will be the Delhomme to Steve Smith game if the Panthers want a shot – neither back will do much for you this week.

Chris Perry: Another tough one for Chris – ha, seem familiar? The Bengals play a tough schedule – good year for that.

Hines Ward: I don’t think Hines keeps catching touchdowns like this, not this week against a good Eagles secondary anyway.