Tag Archives: Tom Brady

Fantasy Focus: Week 15 Fantasy Football Preview

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This is the 2nd Week of Fantasy Playoffs in some leagues, the first in others, regardless, who to play is a big deal. Last week Josh finished atop the charts for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks, or something like that, and his picks have been on fire lately. I finished second, as some tough defensive picks and a goose egg from quarterbacks had the poo-fan pointed in my direction. Ryan and Papa are both trying to pick up some winners as the last few weeks wrap up, and you better believe I’ll be trying to hold onto the overall title. Doing work. This week I have some solid sleepers ready to wake up and give you a playoff win if you need some help, as I’ve placed an extra five guys in my “super sleeper” realm – guys that are waiver wire fodder right now, ready to spring into starter action for draft pick duds. It’s playoffs, nobody’s feelings will be hurt, just play the best guys out there! Here goes many things….

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Wes Welker – Defenses can focus in on Randy, that’s fine, but Wes had 12 catches against Buffalo earlier this year, he will have a teen count this week.
2. Ray Rice –  I have to stick with Ray Rice, the Bears can’t keep up with the main man in Baltimore.
3. Adrian Peterson – Carolina’s pass D is actually decent, their run D, well, you’ll see.
4. Drew Brees – You know Drew has that fire wanting a win over Dallas, and you know he’s going to make that secondary cry.
5. Chris Johnson – I will not take CJ off this list, he’s a must play, at the top of the world right now.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson – Despite last week’s lockdown on Arizona, the 49ers secondary has some holes, DeSean will find them.
2. Jamal Charles – The kid is lightening quick, and given 20 touches, he’s as good as gold in this match-up.
3. Thomas Jones – I like Thomas a lot again, his match-up is just too good, and he’ll get his carries.
4. Cedric Benson –The Chargers can give up some yards on the ground, and I feel a 120+ yard day coming for Benson.
5. Brandon Jacobs – I like his style, and his punishing runs look to be back. Albert might be out, look for 18-20 carries and yards to match.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –Again, he’s the best back in Seattle, again, he’ll have the most fantasy points amongst them, and Tampa, nice match-up.
2. Quentin Ganther – The Giants D front doesn’t scare me like they used to, the Redskins O scares me more than ever. Deal.
3. Vince Young– I like him again, if he’s still out there, he’s a nice spot start for a 2nd straight week.
4. Laurence Maroney– LM has been consistent, at the very least, for the Patriots – I think he runs a lot again in Week 15.
5. Alex Smith– The thought of the Eagles secondary says no, but don’t get tricked, if you don’t have a top guy, need a starter, Smith is a solid play.
6. Steve Breaston – He might be on the Waivers after a few pooformances, but Larry Fitz might be out, and the match-up is good, I like starting Ta-Tas this week.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Brady Quinn – Everyone is saying no, the Chiefs D beat up the Bills passing attack last week, and Brady threw for under 100 yards – so what, I like the match-up. If you need him, don’t feel like you’re going to die. At least double digit fantasy points from Quinn.
2. Chris Jennings – He might not be on the waiver, but I picked him up in a couple leagues, so he’s out there in most. He plays the Chiefs D and looks like a solid option if you have nothing else.
3. Maurice Morris – He could very well be in for starter carries, and some grabs out of the backfield as well, you could do worse than MoMo.
4. Devin Aromashodu – Let me say this, Jay Cutler has been lobbying for him getting more playing time for weeks, he finally gets it and puts up 21 fantasy points. Like it.
5. Greg Camarillo – Last week’s performance isn’t that crazy, and while I don’t see 100 yards, 5+ catches and 50+ yards seems likely against the Titans.
6. Deon Butler – Call me crazy, and this would be a tough start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it worked out. Burleson is out, and while Branch is #3, Butler is the big play guy left – I think he has a couple this week and has his best fantasy week of the year.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Hines Ward– Great player, struggling team, tough D, tough start in my opinion.
2. Mario Manningham– After a great start, MM is back-up duty, and against one of the best secondaries in the league, not a good start.
3. Matt Forte – Weird, Matt’s here again, I think he’ll do more blocking than running against the Ravens.
4. LeSean McCoy –I like the rookie a lot, I just think the Niners shut him down, and the Eagles find quicker ways to gain yardage.
5. Kyle Orton– I like the Broncos to win, yes, but pass a lot? no. Orton might get close to 200 yards, but I doubt he gets over that mark. More than a touchdown through the air? No – sit him.

***Nate Burleson is out. Turner is still a bit risky. Don’t start JaMarcus Russell unless you are throwing your playoff game, and if you are starting Charlie “Brown” Frye, I’m sorry for your mixed luck, nothing like getting to the playoffs and having to start a peanuts character***

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Ten for Wednesday: Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings

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It’s not as catchy, but hey, it’s wednesday and I’m a day late – better late than never. Unless you’re a college kid and you’re waiting on your girlfriend’s… well, you get the picture. On to Fantasy fortunes everywhere!

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Vince Young went and did the Arizona Cardinals something dirty. Not unlike his USC trashing for the National Championship, VY led his team down the field for a late game-winning score, this time as the clock expired, and this time he did it in the comfort of his very own pocket. Sure, the Cardinals had to respect his legs, and that could have been why Vince found so many open receivers in the final minutes, but the bottom line is, he did what most people claimed he couldn’t, and anytime that happens I like to mention it. Do work Vince!….   At some point during the week, Brian Urlacher stated his opinion that Jay Cutler to Chicago was a bad idea. It might not have been stated exactly like that, and the big-bad linebacker went as far as saying that he like’s Jay and thinks Jay is a very good player, and I’m sure Jay felt all warm and fuzzy about it after that, but Brian basically said that the Bears can win with Orton and can’t with Jay. Awesome. I didn’t even have to say it. Everyone wanted Josh McDaniels to resign before he coached a game for dumping Jay for Orton and draft picks – and even more people said the Broncos were morons for giving the Seahawks their 1st round pick next year instead of Chicago’s – but look at it all now – Jay Cutler’s throwing interceptions like he’s some sort of rifle-armed rookie, and without many flashy numbers, the Broncos are winning football games. How’s that sand now Jay? Causing a rash yet?….     And even better, somebody claimed that Jay might have some words with Urlacher about it. Please, somebody bring to my attention what exactly that dopey-faced ball thrower is going to say to Urlacher-quarterback-killer? “Hey Brian, I didn’t really like what you said about me and how Orton is a winner while I’m just a bitch- but it’s no big deal, I forgive you.” Something tells me that’s about as violent as those “words” are going to get…..

Cincinnati threw for 110 yards while boasting a passing game that includes Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson – is there anything that you think seperates them more from the elite teams than them being afraid to score points? The Bengals want to slow down the game so much that they just absolutely refuse to take chances to put points up quick in games where running the ball and slowly eating away the clock is an option. This is why they play close games against everyone, and I think this is what will come back to haunt them when they meet up with a team that can score points on any defense. It is also what will continue to make me happy about staying away from Palmer and Ocho in my fantasy drafts. They’ve had solid games, but 110 yards passing against the Brownies, come on guys….. Speaking of stinker performances in situations where they should flourish, how about Thomas Jones going for just 75 yards while DeAngelo Williams went for just 40 when the Panthers payed the Jets? The Panthers were up to it again, as Jake threw more times than DeAngelo and Jonathan ran the ball, and it was just a 13-3 game, it’s not like the Jets were killing it out there. I’ll never understand how John Fox keeps a job when numbers like this exist. Thomas Jones needed 25 carries to get to 75, and Shonn Greene needed 10 to get to 36. But at least the Jets get it. They threw 18 times on Sunday, they ran the ball 39 times…..   Speaking of John Fox losing his job, look what Jake Delhomme did on Sunday: the guy went absolutely suicidal in football terms, completing 14 of 34 passes for just 130 yards, 4 interceptions, and not a single touchdown to speak of. What’s really amazing about this whole deal is that the Jets don’t have the greatest rush defense, but they have one heck of a secondary. I know, lets have the human interception throw 20 mile and hour nuckle balls 35 yards down field – and we’ll see what happens. Dumb…..

Have you ever had somebody poke at you and tell you that you were wrong before you actually ended up being wrong, and then you became right, and now you want to take the bowl of guac and jump up in the air and spike it between your legs right on your buddy’s face? Enter Thanksgiving Day when my uncle was kind enough to tell me how crazy I am for taking the Colts in Houston and how the Texans were going to end that stupid undefeated talk in a hurry. Sure enough, come Sunday, the Colts jump out to a 17-point deficit, Peyton’s throwing interceptions like Drew Bledsoe used to get sacked, and here’s my uncle, giving me a call and and reiterating how much of a man in a clown suit I am, I can basically hear his stupid tap-dance shoes clickity-clacking on the end of his phone, and he’s gloating like JaMarcus Russell after a 12-29, 100 yard, 0-TD, 2-INT day – I’m smart, you’re dumb, hahahahahaha: and before I hang up, I say, “First of all, you’re an idiot. Second of all, you’re fat. And 3rd, I’d still take the Colts by a field goal.” Now I didn’t call him and say anything when the game was over – I didn’t have to….

LaDainian Tomlinson ran for 39 yards against the Chiefs. Yeah, I think it’s safe to say, the guys that said LT was done as a fantasy starter – they were right – the guys that picked him late in the first round and said, “I got the best running back in football at the end of Round 1”, or “the beginning of Round 2” , those guys, well, those guys were wrong……    This is why every single fantasy league should come with a “record draft shit talk” option that keeps a sort of easy flash back button to the idiots that went crazy over how great all their picks were, how dumb all yours were, and now how they’re 2-10 through 12 Weeks. Could you imagine how great that would be? Forget podcasts, I would be on that thing quoting fools every single week. What was that you said about LenDale White stealing all Chris Johnson’s carries and touchdowns?….. Tom Brady wasn’t accurate on Monday Night, and that’s why the Patriots got beat up. They had their chances, Brady just missed his spots. Sure, the Saints put pressure on the Pats, and the secondary made some plays, but there were guys open and Tom just wasn’t on his game. And they need to stop trying to get 5.5 yards on 3rd and 5 – a little room for error might help them out a bit….

Larry Johnson still has it. Everyone thought he was done. Everyone thought he would disappear and never do anything ever again. I don’t know much, but I know what LJ used to be, and I know there hasn’t been all that much wear on his tires over the past few years, and he looks like a guy running to prove something. Oh yeah, and he’s always been talented.

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 10

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I’ve been doing my thing. I hope all you readers are digging my advice, I’m getting more emails than ever before, and having a pretty good time interacting with the LL.com supporters out there – keep ’em coming, papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I can always dig some reader interaction. That being said, I can’t get everything right, all I can do is tell you what I think, give you the reasoning behind my opinion (as unpopular or crazy as it may seem, or turn out, for that matter), and take the good and the bad as it comes.

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Before I answer any questions, I’d like to let everyone know, never again will I draft a player that had their offensive coordinator fired just before the season… Never again will I eat a Taco Bell Black Jack Taco… Never will I ever even think about drafting a receiver getting balls thrown to him by any one of the following QB impostors, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Brady or Derek, JaMarcus, a rookie with a “big arm” (that one’s for you Mr. Stafford), or Kerry Collins… Never again will I expect great things out of a receiver in a new place (unless you’re Randy Moss-like and headed to Tom Brady’s neighborhood), or a receiver with a new coach, or a receiver with a new coach in a new place in a bad system, or Roy Williams… And last but not least, never again will I go watch football with my nephew, that Lucky little bastard switches around from game to game faster than my wife flicks through the damn channels when nothing’s on – that’s the only time in my life I wish I didn’t have every damn channel on TV. She goes so fast I can’t even see the naked breasts on skinamax…. NEVER AGAIN! Okay, vent complete, here’s the Q&A section!

Dave in Dakota says, “Papa, I hope the fantasy Gods have been smiling on you. I am hanging in there with my teams. Real quick, Which of these RBs should I try to pickup? (Betts,Bernard Scott,Forsett,Reggie Bush, or Kolby Smith?) These guys won’t start unless a good match up. Maybe a possible keeper in that bunch?”

The fantasy Gods have backed off the humility lesson the last few weeks, and I’m doing better. I would pick up Reggie Bush – he has been very explosive of late, and his surgery looks to be effecting him less and less –  then probably Kolby Smith (his upside is starter in KC where I don’t think anybody else has starter upside in that bunch. Next would be Justin Forsett (though that guy can’t buy touches, he’s always way more efficient than any other Hawk ball carrier but Mora hates his couch). And last Scott. I like Scott’s ability, he’s just a no-touch guy behind Benson (who has become a beast). Hope that helps!

Coach D in Minnesota asks, “Which WR Chambers or James Jones? What do you think of Bengals Def. vs the Packers Def?”

I would probably go with James Jones. I’ve always thought the guy was a starting WR in the league, and he’s making the most of his touches, I think he has 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games or so. Plus, with Nelson out, he’s become the sure #3 WR there, and they have many 3WR sets. But Chambers is a little intriguing. He just did nothing in the last couple years, so it’s hard for me to fully buy in to that performance.

I like the Bengals defense a lot, very opportunistic and stout up front. The Packers are okay, but not great by any means. You can’t trust them to play well any week.

Stan in San Fran writes, “All right, Papabear… here is the scenario: I have been offered Ronnie Brown and Buchalter in exchange for Forte and Westbrook. My other backs are Thomas Jones, Felix Jones and Ladell Betts. Brown and Jones would provide me with a solid RB foundation and their schedules are favorable; plus, both offenses are run oriented. I am, “on paper”, giving up a lot, but, that is only if Forte and Westbrook were performing at projected levels. Your thoughts?”

Papabear? Haha – I don’t even know how to respond to that. I guess I’ll just answer the question and eat all the honey later. I think your offer could be good for you, but Ronnie Brown isn’t always used as he should be, in fact, rarely does he get 20+ carries – then again, neither Forte or Westbrook look like awesome choices going forward either, and I would definitely rather have Brown than either of those two guys. Yeah, I’d go with the Ronnie Brown side of that trade – at the very least you know he’s going to get his carries and they do have a relatively easy schedule moving forward while Forte’s is tough.

Stan also writes, “In addition, and if the trade doesn’t go through, do I start Jones and Forte this week or do I insert Betts with a more favorable matchup than Forte (plus the short week and travel).”

I think I would start Forte and Jones or Betts – Jones just isn’t consistent enough for me, and at the very least I think Forte could catch 5 o 6 balls this week. Betts goes up against a tough Denver defense, but Clinton’s back-up will be getting starter carries, and he’s good at catching the ball out of the back-field as well. It’s a toss up to me, between Jones and Betts, but I think I might go with Betts.

Super Man Canada asks, “I need a look in your crystal ball. What do you see for Ronnie Brown? Ronnie Brown’s numbers have been down lately, do you think defenses are getting the best of the Wildcat, starting to figure it out a bit? My man is slipping.”

I don’t think it’s that, I think it’s that they’ve played the Saints, Jets, and Patriots in 3 straight weeks and Brown hasn’t approached 20 carries in any of those games. Prior to that he had 18 or more carries in 4 straight games, and that’s when he rushed for nearly 400 yards and 6 touchdowns. Who knows, the crystal ball has no guarantees, but Brown looks like one of the better bets moving forward – you know the Dolphins are going to run it, they’re at their best with the ball in Ronnie’s hands, and they play a pretty easy run schedule going forward. Plus, lots of smart people thought Ronnie would have a great year, can’t go against my gut when I’m half way through being right!

The Planless Man asks, “I have been offered Romo, Evans and Maroney for Boldin, Schaub, and Greene. What do you think? I know what I am thinking, but I want to see if you are thinking along the same lines as me. Thanks!”

Not for me. Schaub is better than Romo (though i like both), Boldin is way better than Evans, and while you gain a little with Maroney, I doubt he’ll be a player that is a difference maker for you. So you lose. Unless you’re starting Maroney as one of your Top running backs, you have to steer clear of this deal, a small upgrade at your #3 RB isn’t worth losses at your starting WR and QB spots. Plus, the DECLINE button is awesome to click!

Fantasy Focus: Week 9 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

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The Fantasy Title stayed in house last week, Papa took the top spot but I finished way down at the bottom, and we all know there’s no room for that moving forward. There are some pretty stark differences in our rankings this week, so check them out and see if you can’t find something good to grab at. First thing’s first, you won’t find Jake Delhomme in anybody’s Top 5 – as for the rest, check it out below!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – He obviously needs to touch the ball more, KC wishes he wouldn’t.
2. Tom Brady – The Dolphins have a solid front 7, but Tom will be picking on that back four…
3. Larry Fitzgerald – WRs are often tough to predict, but hard not to see Fitz having a big day against the Bears.
4. Reggie Wayne– His awesome routes and great hands, Peyton’s elite accuracy, Reg is basically unstoppable.
5. Pierre Thomas– PT wasn’t a high draft pick, but the guy is a flat out stud and should have a big day against Carolina.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Matt Hasselbeck – Had surprisingly good numbers last week for how bad the Hawks played. Enter Detroit….
2. Steve Smith (NYG) – Has lost some of that early season luster, but I bet he’s back in action against San Diego.
3. Ryan Grant – Grant should have a big time day against the Bucs, but you’re relying on the Packers actually running the ball.
4. Mike Sims-Walker – After a disappointing Week 8 against a shady pass defense, I think Mike steps back up in Week 9.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw –I like Bradshaw’s chances for big plays against San Diego’s porous defense.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – It’s killing me in a couple leagues, but Nate is a better play than T.J. Housh…
2. Julius Jones – He’s not consistent, but he’s the best option the Hawks have, and they will run on Detroit.
3. Steve Breaston – Boobs should be a great play against the Bears, I think Boldin might sit this one out.
4. Alex Smith – Risky? Maybe, but Alex should have some room to throw against the Titans secondary.
5. Jamal Charles – Here come the Jaguars and their run defense, Charles finally gets his shot with LJ out.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. LaDainian Tomlinson– I think Sproles will get a little more play in this one, the Giants should be tough on LT.
2. Antonio Bryant– Rookie quarterback, tough corners that play physical, bad day for Bryant.
3. Roy Williams – Still the number one receiver? Not on my fantasy team, that’s for sure.
4. Steve Smith (CAR)– Saints are smart enough to role all coverage to Steve, he should struggle for fantasy points in NO.
5. Matt Forte– Oh Matt, how do you like Jay Cutler now? Arizona’s run D is tough sledding.

***Another Big Bye in Week 9: don’t play Bills, Browns, Raiders (not that you would), Rams, Vikings, or Jets! Mind the mighty Gap!!!

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Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

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New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick

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New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It’s almost poetic. New England heads to plain old regular England as the “road team” against one of the worst teams in football, Tampa Bay. Wimbley stadium has proven to be a tough place to keep your footing, as it gets chewed up by the weather. But tough field conditions can only be a help for New England. After the Patriots laid a proper onslaught of touchdowns on the Titans last week, and shut out Tennessee 59-0 (in the snow), of course they are going to be big favorites overseas. But it’s justified. The Patriots have played a lot better defensively that I expected this season, and that’s not good news for Josh Johnson and company. I don’t think it’s fair that New England gets to play in a sort-of funky situation, long plane ride, probably a shorter week of practice, because Coach Belichick and company do such a good job of getting their team ready for every situation. Rookie coach, Raheem Morris will certainly have his hands full this week, slowing what looks to be a revitalized Patriots offensive attack. 14.5 is a lot of points, and I wouldn’t bet too much on the game, but if I had to lean one way or another, I’d lean on Tom Brady.

Fantasy Focus: Week 6 Fantasy Football Analysis

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The old man made it two weeks in a row, but at least it stayed in family again. Despite Red Red and Josh’s fantasy genius, neither has found a top spot in any one week this year. But I’m not settling for 2nd, getting the top spot three straight weeks to start the season felt a lot nicer than two straight 2nd place finishes. I’m out for the glory in Week 6. There are some more gross games that you’d like to stay away from this week (Rams/Redskins for one) and some great ones that fantasy should shine in. Here are the predictions for Week 6’s Fantasy Football action. Let the ghost of Drew Bledsoe in Patriot-ic red, white, and blue and his chubby 7th grader-like athleticism shine through with rapture, lead me back to the promise land you dopey Cougar!!!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – It’s a shot in the dark, maybe, and Williams hasn’t been great this year, but Tampa calls…
2. Randy Moss – Tennessee Titans. Remember the Titans? Remember how they had a great secondary last year. Forget that.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – He struggled last week, but in comes St. Louis to quell all problems.
4. Tom Brady – I’m starting to like anyone against the Titans secondary, but Tom has a special place in my heart.
5. Brandon Marshall – The big talented kid has seemingly figured it out, and that means bad things for San Diego.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Matt Hasselbeck – Arizona really doesn’t let you run it, but they sure allow you to pass it. Matty can do that.
2. T.J. Housmandzadeh – If you like Matt this week, and I do, you have to like T.J.
3. Cedric Benson – This cat is running down hill. He put up a big number on Baltimore, Houston should fall like dominoes.
4. Brett Favre – A lot of people will be confused and sit Brett against Baltimore, should be one of this better throwing games.
5. Wes Welker – I think Welker has 10 or more catches for at least 100 yards this week. That’s 20 points and a great day.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – There was no reason for him to go undrafted in most leagues, he’s a weekly starter, this week should be great.
2. Donnie Avery – The kid is finally getting healthy and he can fly, Jacksonville struggles to stop even kiwi bird air attacks.
3. Rashard Mendenhall – I’ll ride this super sophomore until he lets me down, especially against the league’s worst run D.
4. Kyle Orton – The Chargers let opponents have their way, and Josh McDaniels likes to throw the rock. Good for Orton owners.
5. Eddie Royal – I love me some Eddie Royal this week against San Diego, especially since he saw 15 targets last week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Fred Jackson – It’s going to be tough for me to play Fred much, Lynch gets more carries and more receptions.
2. Vincent Jackson – An impossible guy to sit on most teams, but if you have other solid options, I think he struggles.
3. Julius Jones – Hopefully you listened to Red Red Ryan and traded him when he had value, AZ won’t allow much.
4. Santonio Holmes – Because why would the Steelers pass more than 20 times when they could run to victory easily?
5. Steve Slaton – In a non-ppr league, I think you sit Slaton. If it’s PPR, don’t expect a great day, but could be playable.

PS – Don’t play Dolphins, 49ers, Colts, and Cowboys in Week 6! Byes! Mind the gap!

Week 6 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

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Michael Koenen has a special place in the hearts of everyone at LuckyLester.com – until he’s kicking field goals again, we’re not ranking the position ever… Get a 60 yarder Mikey!

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football

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Hello all. For the last couple years I’ve posted a weekly fantasy football article with the title, theRUNDOWN – well after much thought and consideration, I’ve decided to ax theRUNDOWN and change the way I do things a little bit to make it easier for you. The new plan is that I’ll have a weekly article that highlights many important areas of the upcoming week. I’ll give you 4 different categories outlining fantasy startability every single week. We’ll have Elite Starters, Solid Starters, and Sleepers Starters – basically giving a list of 5 guys in each talent level with solid match-ups. I will also post a Sit ‘Em Son section for regular starters I’d steer clear from. That’s 20 guys rated out by me. Finally, I’ll get all the writers from my site, Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, Papa Weimer, and myself; to rank our top five players for the week at each position. With all things fantasy getting covered, I’m calling this section the Fantasy Focus. And focused it will be. Every new article will come with a small review of last week’s advice (except for this one because, well, there was no fantasy last week – it’s all just beginning). We hold ourselves accountable here. If we treat you well, we brag and gloat like Muhammad Ali, and if we dog it we own it. Here’s Week 1’s Fantasy Focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – I think DeLo will get 25 touches this week, he’ll kill that bad run defense from Philly
2. Tom Brady – He’s finding Wes Welker and # 4 all day long.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Boldin might have a small hamstring issue, that means more looks for Larry.
4. Randy Moss – These guys will go hand in hand, Randy and Tom, Buffalo is in for some hurt.
5. Brian Westbrook – He may be a little risky, but that defensive line from Carolina doesn’t stop the run.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I think Eddie will grab 10+ balls this week.
2. Reggie Bush – Against the Lions, those who stole Reggie late should smile on Sunday.
3. Ray Rice – You betcha, Ray Ray, come on down and start off your season against the Chiefs… Lucky!
4. Joseph Addai – I think Addai gets 20 carries and does a lot with them against the Jags suspect run D.
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Get ready for Matt to torch the Rams secondary, he’s back and more accurate than ever.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – will be starting, if you are throwing a guy into the fray, why not a guy against that secondary?
2. Julius Jones – I picked this guy in two leagues after the 11th round, he’ll be a top 20 back this week.
3. Tim Hightower – One of the lowest drafted starting backs in the league, Tim approaches 100 yards this week.
4. Mark Sanchez – I like Mark this week in his opener. He’s going up against a bad defense, check it down to Leon!!!
5. Nate Burleson – ESPN projects 2 points for Nasty Nate – yeah, right – good play this week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I’m not crazy about Palmer this week. I think they run the ball a lot against Denver.
2. Clinton Portis – I know he’s at his best early in the season, but this defensive front is as good as it gets.
3. Willie Parker – Willie got no love, then he got too much, even without Albert the Titans stop Parker.
4. Devin Hester – He may be a speed mis-match for Packers secondary, but those corners are too strong for Hester.
5. Hines Ward – I think Ward struggles in the opener, just a few catches, less than 50 yards.

PS – Don’t be the guy that starts Marshawn Lynch….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning	1.Tom Brady		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Drew Brees		2.Drew Brees		2.Peyton Manning	2.Drew Brees
3.Tom Brady		3.Matt Ryan		3.Chad Pennington	3.Peyton Manning
4.Jay Cutler		4.Aaron Rodgers		4.Donovan McNabb	4.Aaron Rodgers
5.Phillip Rivers	5.Peyton Manning	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Matt Schaub

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner	1.DeAngelo Williams
2.DeAngelo Williams	2.DeAngelo Williams	2.Adrian Peterson	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Steven Jackson	3.Matt Forte		3.LaDainian Tomlinson	3.Maurice Jones Drew
4.Ray Rice		4.Reggie Bush		4.Frank Gore		4.Adrian Peterson
5.Willie Parker		5.Knowshon Moreno	5.Ryan Grant		5.Ronnie Brown

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson		1.Calvin Johnson	1.Steve Smith		1.Randy Moss
2.Reggie Wayne		2.Terrell Owens		2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith		3.Marques Colston	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Vincent Jackson	4.Andre Johnson		4.Randy Moss		4.Andre Johnson
5.Calvin Johnson	5.Wes Welker		5.Eddie Royal		5.Greg Jennings

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates		1.Jason Witten		1.Dallas Clark		1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Antonio Gates		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Antonio Gates
3.Dallas Clark		3.Dallas Clark		3.Antonio Gates		3.Jason Witten
4.Greg Olsen		4.John Carlson		4.Owen Daniels		4.Zach Miller
5.Dustin Keller		5.Brandon Petitgrew	5.Jason Witten		5.John Carlson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Giants		1.Vikings
2.Steelers		2.Cowboys		2.Ravens		2.Ravens
3.Giants		3.Seahawks		3.Chargers		3.Cowboys
4.Patriots		4.Redskins		4.Saints		4.Giants
5.Bengals		5.Patriots		5.Steelers		5.Bengals

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your guess is as good as ours. Plus, we don't care enough to write about it.

Fantasy Football Value: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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Thank you, Dr. Seuss for the inspiration for this weekly fantasy column.  I was in trade negotiations in one of my dynasty leagues when I got to thinking about the (at times) sizable gap between perception and reality when it comes to NFL players and their production.  Nowhere is this schism more apparent than with the dreaded “injury-prone” label that gets tossed about every off-season around draft time.  Remember kids, it’s corner backs that are supposed to have a short memory, not successful fantasy players.  Nothing chaps my ass more than when a player gets slapped with the IP label simply because they got hurt at some point in their most recent season.  Tom Brady missed all of last season with a shredded knee and then hurt his AC joint this preseason when Albert Haynesworth landed none-too-gracefully on him.  Injury-prone? … probably not.  But Carson Palmer, he of the elbow vagitis last season and sprained ankle this preseason? … avoid at all costs because you can’t count on him to stay on the field.  This is what is referred to as a double standard, and if you can sift through the BS and come to terms with reality, your fantasy team stands to reap the considerable rewards when it comes to draft-day value.

Thing 1: A 27-year-old RB whose 2005-2008 yardage totals are 1139, 1284, 991 and 1170.  He has totaled 25 touchdowns during that span.  This player was injured in 2007 is currently being picked in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 28-year-old RB whose 2005-2008 yardage totals are 1420, 1716, 1480 and 804.  He has totaled 28 touchdowns during that span.  This player was injured in 2008 and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Ronnie Brown and Thing 2 is Willie Parker

Thing 1: A 24-year-old TE who caught 54 passes for 574 yards and 5 touchdowns last season.  He will be catching passes from a new QB this season and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 25-year-old TE who caught 55 passes for 627 yards and 5 touchdowns last season.  He will be catching passes from a healthier QB this season and is currently being picked in the 9th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Greg Olsen and Thing 2 is John Carlson

Thing 1: A 27-year-old WR who has hauled in 171 passes over the past two seasons totaling 2584 yards and 13 touchdowns.  He was the favorite target of a rookie signal-caller last season and is currently being picked in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 35-year-old WR who has hauled in 183 passes over the past two seasons totaling 2124 yards and 10 touchdowns.  He was the favorite target of a rookie signal-caller last season and is currently being picked in the 8th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Roddy White and Thing 2 is Derek Mason

Thing 1: A 24-year-old QB that completed 61% of his passes and threw for 3440 yards and 16 touchdowns.  This player also ran for 104 yards and 1 touchdown and is currently being picked in the 6th round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 31-year-old QB that completed 63% of his passes and threw for 3620 yards and 15 touchdowns.  This player also ran for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns and is currently being picked in the 12th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Matt Ryan and Thing 2 is David Garrard

Thing 1: A 32-year-old QB that was banged up and missed nearly all of the 2008 season.  In the three years prior to that, his average season was 4148 yards passing and 33 touchdowns.  He is currently being picked in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 29-year-old QB that was banged up and missed nearly all of the 2008 season.  In the three years prior to that, his average season was 4001 yards passing and 29 touchdowns.  He is currently being picked in the 8th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Tom Brady and Thing 2 is Carson Palmer

Thing 1: A 26-year-old RB that has averaged 1155 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs and 13.75 games/season over the last four years.  This player has played a full 16 games only once and is currently being picked in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.

Thing 2: A 31-year-old RB that has averaged 1244 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs and 15.75 games/season over the last four years.  This player has played a full 16 games five times and is currently being picked in the 5th round of fantasy drafts.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Steven Jackson and Thing 2 is Thomas Jones

Free Fantasy Football Picks: Papas Predictions

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My Nephew has me back giving some fantasy advice, he was nice enough to pay me nothing to work for another year, what a guy. But hey, I have fun doing it right? Shit, I only have to wear two pairs of glasses to see the damn screen, make 100 errors while hunting and pecking my way into oblivion, all the while trying not to listen to this voice in my head that keeps telling me to pick Barry Sanders in my upcoming draft – (I still do that with my last pick, what can I say, I’m hopeful for a comeback). So these are my predictions, I hope that’s not too quick of a transition for you, if it is just deal with it I guess. I’m old, but I’ve probably been playing fantasy football since you were an idea that your parents couldn’t even fathom – you know, when they still wore condoms and took birth control. So, I’ve been around for a while, won lots of fantasy championships, and learned from my mistakes as well. What has that taught me? That these predictions are more likely to be true than my nephews. That’s what. Why? Because I’ve only been wrong once, and that was when I thought I was wrong and was actually right. Here goes…

1. Matt Hasselbeck will be a Top 7 quarterback in 2009.

2. Either Chester Taylor or Jerious Norwood will be a Top 20 fantasy back this season. Choose wisely.

3. Matt Schaub will not play more than 12 games, but that’s okay, he’ll still throw 20 touchdowns.

4. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will be a Top 5 fantasy defense.

5. Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback.

6. Donovan McNabb will be Top 5.

7. Who will round out my QB top 7? Drew Brees and Philip Rivers and Tony Romo will be in there too. That leaves one spot left over, gotta have a flier in there somewhere – but I’m not going to predict that, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

8. The highest paid QB in the NFL finishes out of the Top 20 in fantasy QB rankings.

9. Even though I’ve had poops bigger than Darren Sproles and Leon Washington, both will finish amongst the Top 30 running backs in PPR leagues.

10. Thomas Jones won’t, Jamal Lewis won’t, Jonathan Stewart won’t either.

11. Knowshon Moreno will have at least five 100-yard games this season.

12. That will be more than Marion Barber.

13. This year’s DeAngelo Williams (surprise, out of nowhere back that is seemingly left for dead because of a high draft pick or “new” back taking his place? That would be Joseph Addai. He won’t be the #1 fantasy back like Williams was last year, but he’s getting drafted around 20 in most of my leagues, he’ll be a Top 10 guy.

14. Marshawn Lynch will be a Top 10 guy from Week 4 until Week 16 – do those week’s matter to anybody?

15. Not much of a stunner, but Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing yards, by a lot.

16. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson. Why? Ready… He’s going to have more fantasy points. But I like both guys.

17. Kevin Smith will be a top 10 fantasy running back.

18. Randy Moss will score more fantasy points that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will catch more passes than anybody in the NFL.

20. Chad Johnson will show everybody that last year was a fluke, and that he’s still very inconsistent, but will be a Top 10 WR in the fantasy world.

21. If Terrell Owens is healthy for all 16 games, he will be a Top 5 fantasy receiver. I will guarantee he’s a top 10 guy regardless.

22. Anthony Gonzalez will have more fantasy points than Roy Williams.

23. Lance Moore will have at least 70 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. That might not be last years’ totals, but that’s still pretty damn good considering where you draft the guy.

24. John Carlson will be a Top 6 Tight End.

25. Joseph Addai > Darren McFadden > Pierre Thomas… That would be opposite of their draft rankings.

26. Felix Jones scores more fantasy points than Ray Rice.

27. Donnie Avery scores more fantasy points than Donald Driver.

28. The highest scoring rookie receiver this season? Hakeem Nicks.

29. Brandon Jacobs will score more fantasy points, in non PPR leagues, than any other RB in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson. He’s number one, or maybe number two….

30. In the games that Reggie Bush plays in (I’m guessing 12-14) he’ll be a Top 10 PPR RB. So he has GREAT draft value right now. *Currently ranked 31 by Espin the Magazine.

Done and Done. It only took my a million hunts and pecks to find the right keys to right this damn thing, and if you count my hourly wage, I’m going to have to win the lottery to get out of the red… blast. But at least I’ll get to rub it in when these are all right.

2009 Fantasy Football Tiered Player Rankings: Lucky Lester’s Top 220

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I’m back again with yet another fantasy article, this one rates out my top 220 players for this season and this season only. I’ve already busted out a dynasty chart (without rookies) for the next three years, you could check that out here. It’s an older article, and while some things have changed, that look should give you a decent view of the future if you find yourself in a dynasty league late this fall – but remember, it happened before the draft, and thus is without rookies, a valuable resource in dynasty leagues.

I’ve also spent a little time busting out some tiered rankings for each position, hopefully helping you on draft day – check that out here. I’m breaking these down into tiers as well, because a ranking list is nothing without a little crying game. Also, looking at my final rankings and my earlier tiered rankings, you’ll see some small differences. Why? Well, that’s because things happen over a month that give me reason to move players up and down. Nothing is concrete!

When I rank players, I’m not saying, “this is going to be the final points standings at years’ end”, no, I’m saying that this is the order of value, fantasy points, and upside going into draft day, a sort of cheat sheet to help you assess value on D-Day. Hope this helps!

First Tier

1.	Adrian Peterson – Favre signing just enough to get him on top.
2.	Maurice Jones Drew
3.	Matt Forte
4.	Michael Turner – I might not be giving him enough credit, looks great!

Second Tier

5.	LaDainian Tomlinson
6.	Steve Slaton
7.	Frank Gore
8.	Andre Johnson
9.	Larry Fitzgerald
10.	DeAngelo Williams – J-Stew’s injury woes has Williams moving up.
11.	Steven Jackson
12.	Chris Johnson
13.	Randy Moss – Randy is Tom’s favorite weapon.
14.	Brian Westbrook

Third Tier

15.	Steve Smith
16.	Calvin Johnson
17.	Clinton Portis – All four of these backs are great value picks…
18.	Ronnie Brown - …
19.	Ryan Grant - …
20.	Brandon Jacobs – His O-line is the stuff championships are made of.
21.	Marion Barber
22.	Tom Brady
23.	Drew Brees

Forth Tier

24.	Anquan Boldin – Best #2 in the league.
25.	Reggie Wayne – Still one of the best with one of the best tossing him balls.
26.	Greg Jennings
27.	Darren McFadden – all the talent in the world, lots of touches.
28.	Roddy White
29.	Terrell Owens
30.	Marques Colston

Fifth Tier

31.	Marshawn Lynch
32.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Housh looks like a 115 catch guy to me.
33.	Eddie Royal – Marshall moves down, Eddie moves up!
34.	Vincent Jackson
35.	Dwayne Bowe
36.	Derrick Ward – A pretty risky pick considering RB talent in Tampa Bay.
37.	Larry Johnson
38.	Knowshon Moreno – I still believe!
39.	Wes Welker
40.	Jason Witten

Sixth Tier

41.	Reggie Bush
42.	Joseph Addai – Running with something to prove, should be decent.
43.	Chad Johnson
44.	Anthony Gonzalez – This guy is crafty.
45.	Pierre Thomas
46.	Roy Williams
47.	Kurt Warner
48.	Peyton Manning
49.	DeSean Jackson – Has looked better in year 2, moving up my list.
50.	Aaron Rodgers
51.	Phillip Rivers
52.	Antonio Gates
53.	Tony Romo
54.	Donovan McNabb
55.	LenDale White
56.	Felix Jones
57.	Thomas Jones
58.	Julius Jones – No love for JJ, I think he’ll be solid.
59.	Ray Rice
60.	Dallas Clark
61.	Tony Gonzalez

Seventh Tier

62.	Matt Schaub – Please stay healthy and prove me right!
63.	Lee Evans
64.	Bernard Berrien – Brett at least gives Berrien more flavor.
65.	Matt Hasselbeck – Matt’s moving up my list.
66.	Santana Moss
67.	Braylon Edwards
68.	Jonathan Stewart – Many upside here.
69.	Jamal Lewis – His offense may be terrible, but his O-line is solid.
70.	Tim Hightower
71.	Carson Palmer – Hurt again?
72.	Lance Moore
73.	Beanie Wells
74.	Jay Cutler – Looked better than I thought he would, but still not top notch.
75.	Chris Cooley
76.	Matt Ryan – I’m not believing 25+ touchdowns in year 2.
77.	Brandon Marshall – I hear he’s having some problems.

Eighth Tier

78.	Leon Washington – I think he’ll be used more this season.
79.	Cedric Benson
80.	Willie Parker
81.	Hines Ward
82.	Owen Daniels
83.	Greg Olsen
84.	Santonio Holmes
85.	Jericho Cotchery
86.	Antonio Bryant
87.	Devin Hester – Hasn’t shown much in the pre-season, should change though.

Ninth Tier

88.	David Garrard
89.	Matt Cassel
90.	Kellen Winslow – has yet to catch a ball in the pre-season.
91.	Torry Holt
92.	Rashard Mendenhall
93.	Ben Roethlisberger
94.	Donald Brown
95.	Jerious Norwood – One of the best back-up backs in the league.
96.	Darren Sproles
97.	Ahmad Bradshaw – looks really good in the pre-season.
98.	John Carlson
99.	Kyle Orton
100.	Nate Burleson – people are forgetting about him, do.
101.	Donnie Avery – Should be healthy by week one, #1 receiver late.
102.	Derrick Mason – old and good, not unlike the guy right below.
103.	Donald Driver

Tenth Tier

104.	Trent Edwards – Like him with Lee and TO out wide.
105.	Fred Jackson
106.	Kevin Walter
107.	Brett Favre – Hmmm…. I wonder.
108.	Zach Miller
109.	Dominik Hixon
110.	Cadillac Williams – Looked good to me, hope he gets more touches.
111.	LeSean McCoy
112.	Nate Washington – Better than people know, hurt early, good late pick.
113.	Joe Flacco
114.	Josh Morgan
115.	Daunte Culpepper – If the job was his, guarantee, I’d rank him higher.
116.	Chad Pennington
117.	Jason Campbell
118.	Ted Ginn Jr. – Super fast WR coming into his own.
119.	Steve Breaston
120.	Chris Henry – Yes, the #3 is ranked higher than the #2.
121.	Vinsanthe Shiancoe
122.	Earnest Graham
123.	Laveranues Coles
124.	Percy Harvin
125.	Jabar Gaffney
126.	Michael Crabtree – This guy is a soap opera already.
127.	Tony Scheffler
128.	Dustin Keller
129.	Fred Taylor
130.	Kenny Britt – Moving on up, lots of talent.
131.	Kevin Curits – Not sure if his upside is high enough for me to get late.
132.	Correll Buckhalter
133.	Jake Delhomme
134.	Jeremy Shockey
135.	Willis McGahee
136.	Chester Taylor
137.	Michael Bush
138.	Shaun Hill
139.	Eli Manning
140.	James Davis
141.	Shonn Greene – Like his talent, just don’t like 3rd RBs too much.
142.	JaMarcus Russell – has looked solid so far this pre-season.
143.	Le’Ron McClain
144.	Sammy Morris
145.	Justin Forsett

Eleventh Tier

146.	Laurence Maroney
147.	Tashard Choice
148.	Marc Bulger
149.	Chaz Schillens – hurt early, but looks good to me.
150.	Patrick Crayton
151.	Michael Clayton
152.	Isaac Bruce
153.	Joey Galloway
154.	Mark Clayton
155.	Earl Bennett ¬– Not sure he is fast enough.
156.	Maurice Stovall – Could be in line for starting duties.
157.	Brady Quinn
158.	Bobby Engram
159.	Vernon Davis
160.	Mohammad Massoquoi
161.	Peyton Hillis
162.	Hakeem Nicks
163.	Jeremy Maclin – The speedster might be a nice second half pick-up.
164.	Mark Sanchez
165.	Glen Coffee
166.	Steve Smith (NYG)
167.	Chris Chambers
168.	Anthony Fasano
169.	Jamaal Charles
170.	Mike Bell
171.	Sidney Rice
172.	Edgerrin James
173.	Ricky Williams
174.	Troy Williamson – Has the speedster finally arrived?
175.	Deion Branch
176.	Justin Fargas
177.	Brandon Petitgrew
178.	Laurent Robinson – liked him better than Mike Jenkins in ATL too.
179.	Michael Jenkins
180.	Mushin Muhammad
181.	Kevin Boss
182.	Malcom Kelly
183.	Brent Celek
184.	David Clowney – Becoming number two?
185.	Mark Bradley
186.	Miles Austin
187.	Bo Scaife
188.	Ladell Betts
189.	JerMichael Finley
190.	Chris Brown – could be a TD stealer, but I doubt it.
191.	Devone Bess
192.	DeShawn Wynn
193.	Mike Walker
194.	James Jones
195.	Dominic Rhodes
196.	Pierre Garcon
197.	Jordy Nelson
198.	Michael Vick – In deep leagues, maybe?
199.	Limas Sweed – Nate Washington’s targets?
200.	Antwan Randel-El
201.	Deon Butler
202.	Kevin Jones
203.	Jonnie Lee Higgins
204.	Heath Miller
205.	Marion Manningham
206.	Robert Meachem
207.	Brian Robiskie
208.	Chase Coffman
209.	Todd Heap
210.	Brandon Jackson – Could be #2 still, had a tough camp.
211.	Byron Leftwich
212.	Matthew Stafford
213.	Kerry Collins
214.	Sage Rosenfels – So much for sleeper, thanks Brett!
215.	Matt Leinart
216.	Vince Young
217.	Chad Henne
218.	Samkon Gado
219.	Bernard Scott
220.	Tarvaris Jackson – Mr. Irrelevant could play well if he gets the chance.