2009-2010 NFL Free ATS Picks Review for the Regular Season

This is the ultimate review. All season long I’ve been picking every single game that was played, and this is my regular season end game. It was one of my best years since I started writing sports articles, and sharing my knowledge with thousands of people weekly. It’s been an amazing season, in a lot of different ways, but here’s a review of my free picks. I lay out my records for every single week of the season – the winning weeks are in bold – and I must say, there’s a lot more records in bold than not.

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2009-2010 NFL Free Picks Review

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 6-10
Week 4: 6-8
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 9-5
Week 7: 9-3-1
Week 8: 7-6
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 8-7
Week 11: 9-7
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 7-9
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 8-7-1
Week 16: 10-5-1
Week 17: 8-7-1

The closer you look, the more you see – and you’ll see I had 3 losing records in 17 weeks of free picks. I had 1 push. That means I busted out 13 winning weeks while picking every single game. My final record for the NFL regular season was 141-111. I hope you enjoyed the free picks, took advantage of the newsletter that started later in the year, and appreciate all the writing at luckylester.com. It was a good year indeed!

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 17 Predictions Revisited

Well, the final week has come and gone, and definitely left its mark on us. A couple games went exactly how I figured, and I thought I was a genius. The other games had me scratching my head. The Houston Texans came in and beat the Patriots 1st team – as New England basically played their starters throughout the entire game. But it wasn’t by enough, as I finished a half point out of that win. I, of course, thought the Pats would sit their main guys most of the day. Wrong. Some others went well and a couple more went wrong, but in the end I finished 8-7-1, pumping out yet another winning week…

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Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7) (WINNER) The Colts were playing in the middle of a blizzard, not only the weather, but a guy name Fred Jackson. Keep Fred’s name high on your off-season fantasy rankings, the guy will be the focal point of Buffalo’s offense next season. Just as I suspected, the starters in Buffalo are better than the back-ups in Indy.

New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Carolina Panthers (LOSS) I knew I was in trouble when Jonathan Stewart took it to the house before the game even really started. I got lost in the “we’re going to win, we’re the Saints” way of thinking and thought Mark Brunell could do enough. Wrong. The Panthers whooped the Saints.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Cleveland Browns (LOSS) The Jaguars are unbelievable – how does a head coach of a team in the playoff hunt come into a must win game against a crappy Browns team and get a terrible performance from his team? There’s no excuse for that, I don’t care if you’re Tom freaking Landry, your ace should be jobless for a couple weeks after that garbage. My fault, I didn’t realize how high the Jaguars could turn up the suck.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions (WINNER) Gotta give it to the Bears, they certainly made it interesting but pulled away when they realized they were playing against the Lions. That about sums it up.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (-7.5) (LOSS) Oh Bill, don’t you know that every move you have made this year has ultimately back-fired? When you decided to start your best guys and go for the win, you should have flipped the switch, picked tails over heads, gone opposite day psycho on us, I don’t know – but Wes Welker took the brunt of the whole thing. The Patriots lost, by just enough to cover, after they played starters 00% of the game. A mis-read on the playing time thing made it a tough game for a guy.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) The Steelers were a really tough match-up for the Dolphins, and they were playing with a little more jalapeno on their pepper jack, and came out victorious. But it was close, and it’s possible that if the Dolphins didn’t have quarterback trouble, health-wise, the Fins might have pulled the upset. But Pittsburgh won again, and pulled it out by 6.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) (WINNER) The Giants had given up. Whew, that one made me sweat. I hope Tom Coughlin gets fired – wait, I don’t hope that really, I’d rather just hate the Giants and get to see them struggle again next season so I can see Tom and Eli have a stupid face competition for one more year.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams (WINNER) San Francisco tried to come out and lose, starting with no swagger, no push, no nothing. But the Rams could only put up a field goal during those early quarters, and San Francisco came out in the 3rd quarter and managed to finish the game on a 28-3 run. I wonder what Samari Mike did at half time to elicit that kind of football? Hmm…

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WINNER) The Bucs really improved this season, and it showed in the final week as they pushed the Falcons until the very end, making me realize that the oddsmakers weren’t actually crazy. But it ended right for me in the end as the Falcons won by 10 anyway – haha, books, take that!

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (LOSS) Wow, the Eagles pulled a Cowboys… They finished the season just like Dallas did last year, but this time the Eagles get the luxury of a second chance – but instead of it being after a 1st round bye and in their house, they get to travel to Dallas next week. Maybe they should have tried this week?

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3) (LOSS) The Packers were the team looking like they had something to play for. And maybe that was what got me in the end. Arizona found out that Minnesota won, and they suddenly had nothing to play for. Green Bay came out trying to beat the piss out of the team they will be playing next week, and they certainly did that. But it was against back-ups for much of the game. We’ll see how it goes next week, something tells me the Cardinals will be playing starters…

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos (WINNER) The Chiefs won outright, and made me feel really good about saying, “This game has upset written all over it,” among other things. The Chiefs had me looking brilliant as they ran all over the Broncos for the feel good end-of-the-year victory.

Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders (LOSS) The Ravens just didn’t push it enough to blowout the Raiders, even though Oakland got a guest appearance from JaMarcus “never cover the spread” Russell, apparently he didn’t play long enough. Oakland was impressive, but the Ravens never looked like they were going to lose despite the close score.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ San Diego Chargers (WINNER) The Redskins were up in the 4th and lost anyway, weird. Even against back-ups, the same stuff continues to happen. I wonder if Mike Shannahan will have that same problem? Either way, the Chargers didn’t win by enough, as the Redskins covered by a point. A big point, too, the win assured me yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (Push) The Titans came out to get Chris Johnson as many touches as he could and get some records or hit some yardage milestones. Well, for the first time this year, the Hawks came and executed a play pretty well. They wanted to make life as tough as possible for Chris, and they hit him hard and often. Johnson still became the leading Titan single season rusher, scored a couple touchdowns, and finished the year with the best total yardage mark of all time – but he needed 36 carries to do so, and he’ll be grateful there’s no game next week so he can rest. He got hit hard. The Hawks tough play actually ended in a push, and I must say, I didn’t expect them to come out with any will at all. They must have fought the evil Jim Mora curse this week, goldbaum, chili powder, and alfredo will do the trick every time…

Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) @ New York Jets (LOSS) I thought this game would be tough for the Jets as the Bengals always play close games, tough defense, and the Jets have a really hard time moving the ball offensively. I was wrong. Cinci came out playing thier starters, and tricking the public into believing they were playing to win. But Carson Palmer ended 1/11 for 0 yards and an INT – while Ochonacho finished without a catch for the first time in 125 games… Tough game for me, I thought it would be a lot tighter than that. The do-over next week in Cincinnati should be interesting…

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 16 2009 Predictions

You know what they say, if you’re going to do something you might as well do it right. Okay, maybe I made that up, or maybe they say something similar to that, but it works for Week 16 as I ended up winning twice as many as I lost, and came away with yet another winning week. Single roll freaking Yahtzee! Here’s how my 10-5-1 Week 16 went down…

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San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans (WINNER)  The Chargers made quick work of the Titans, and Tennessee couldn’t get that 2nd win over an above .500 team. Chris Johnson still did work though, and you can bet I’ll be all over the Titans against the Hawks next week.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons (Loss) The Bills couldn’t compete. If this team doesn’t have a new coaching staff within a week of the regular season ending, I’ll be stunned. The Falcons came out doing dirty work from the get go, getting people involved early, and dominating the Bills throughout.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WINNER) You can count this game as a lesson learned, I fully expected the Chiefs to lose, but have seen the Bengals barely win too many games this season. Put another “close win” notch on their resume, a late TD to Ochocinco gave the Bengals a touchdown win.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (WINNER) The Browns ran the ball, and while their best back (Harrison has been their best back for the last three years) didn’t have his best yard per carry day, he did control the game rushing more than 35 times and getting close to 150 yards on the day. As I said, the Browns didn’t need much QB help after all.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5) (WINNER)This game was over by the time Ryan Grant got his first carry. The big back ran downhill and the Hawks didn’t seem to fond of catching him. Two touchdowns, and some easy passes from Rodgers, an interception filled day from Hasselcrack – it was an easy win indeed.

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) As I said, the Texans are the better team, and here they are going for an outside shot at the playoffs. Houston’s defense played very well, and that’s because they are good. Weird. Who knew? Me.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-7) (Loss) The mighty Giants are a mess, and out of the playoffs, what a shame, no post-season looks of disgust from Eli’s frowny little face… The Panthers straight crushed the Giants, and the win apparently kept John Fox his job – great – another year of falling behind by a score early and completely abandoning the run – ugh.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (Loss)The Patriots seem to have it figured out, or maybe they just played a Jacksonville team that always seems to put up soaked baby diapers when it matters most. Coaching… Anyway, New England tossed touchdown after touchdown early, giving the slow moving Jags offense no chance for success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints (WINNER) The Bucs won outright, and they did it in pretty physically dominant fashion. Tampa controlled the line of scrimmage, and now the Saints are flailing to the finish.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PUSH) As it was, a tough game to call indeed. It ended up in a push as the Steelers hit a field goal to win it. Baltimore had plenty of chances, that’s for sure, but numerous mistakes haunted them and leave them needing a win to see the playoffs in the final week. I got the push, but I hate pushes.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WINNER) The Broncos fought hard and could have easily come out of Philly with a win, but Donovan McNabb through a missile to Jeremy Maclin that the rookie caught just before falling out of bounds, that’s when the game was over as Philly had to just run out the clock and kick a short field goal.

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (Loss) The heart and soul of the Rams offense, one of the best players in football, Steven Jackson, was a late scratch, and I have to believe, that if he was healthy, this would have been a cover. But what can a guy do? Lose with class I guess..

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11) (WINNER) Frank Gore was the best player on the field on Sunday, and the 49ers finally got back to realizing that as the compact running back marched for 150 yards from scrimmage, got 28 carries, and pounded the Lions all day.

New York Jets (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts (WINNER) Well, the better team was Indy, but as I said, that wouldn’t matter when you teamed up the Colts sitting their guys before the game was over and the Jets needing a win to see the playoffs – those two things got New York the game, and me a nice win. “Easy peazy japenesey.”

Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ Washington Redskins (WINNER) It’s pretty clear I have the Redskins pretty well pegged, and those weeks of playing solid football look to be over.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears (Loss) Well, what can a guy do? The Vikings were beat up by the Bears, and though the final score shows an overtime loss, it looked worse than that. Minnesota had some huge plays just to get back in it, and one has to wonder if the Vikings are who we thought they were, or a greater version of the Panthers?

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 15 2009 Football

It wasn’t glorious in all it’s light, but it was another winner. I’ve had a handful of close weeks in a row, but with a solid start, it’s hard to argue with a couple games over .500 here, a couple over there, one over here, (and last week, one under) – I’ve had a solid year, as many of you know, and giving away 100% of the NFL games for absolutely nothing has hopefully helped you profit. And while it starter well early, had a mid-day lull, and took me all the way until Monday Night to assure myself yet another winner, Week 15 was indeed another winner, and with two more yet to go, here’s the review…

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Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Winner) The Colts did indeed play their starters throughout, and I needed every bit of that starter action to get the job done. Peyton (starter) threw a touchdown pass, a deep one, to a wide open Reggie Wayne (starter) after the Jaguars did their best to end that undefeated season option. Too bad, so sad, the Jaguars couldn’t finish the job – weird.

Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints (Winner) In my Just Picks Newsletter, I wrote this, “The Cowboys are not playing bad football, despite the press being in favor of the contrary, they’ve had a tough couple games, but are still a good team. Giving a good team more than a touchdown is usually and auto-bet for me, seeing the Saints struggle often in the last 6-7 weeks has me thinking this might be the week defeat becomes a reality.” And in my actual game write-up, I wrote something similar. I saw it coming, the crystal ball was clear for me in this one.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) The Bears really suck, I’m sorry for taking them, I just couldn’t buy the Ravens putting up huge offensive numbers two weeks in a row – I should have bought in – did I mention how bad the Bears are?

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5) (Winner) Well, the Bills made it close, and only because Tom Brady and the Pats offense was brutal after the first quarter. I don’t know what it is, the cold, the fact that they just aren’t clicking, maybe this team is just losing it, but New England has been brutal of late, and the Bills just barely took advantage and made it close enough for me to cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-11) @ Detroit Lions (Loss) After being up 17-0 at the end of the first half, the Cardinals came out with poop on their shoes in the 2nd half, and gave up 17 straight to Detroit in a disgusting display of football. They brought it together just enough to get a touchdown win, but they really jerked me around in this one.

Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was a close one, it had Cleveland/Detroit type highlights, and once again the world became Joshua Cribbs’ oyster – the kid can straight make touchdowns, and a little piece of advice, don’t kick it to him this time…

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New York Jets (Winner) The Falcons had little to play for, they were eliminated by the time game-time rolled around, and the Jets still have playoffs aspirations despite losing this game – are you kidding me? the AFC is a mess! New York came out and tried hard not to lose, but probably didn’t run the ball enough. Atlanta’s D-front was game from the get-go, though, and that played a big roll in the Falcons all out road win – they don’t do that much.

San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Loss) The Eagles made the 49ers look silly, and I still think they are – Frank Gore’s running numbers were great, yet they only ran the guy 16 times – no good Mike, no good at all.

Houston Texans (-10) @ St. Louis Rams (Loss) The Texans just barely squeaked this one out. I don’t know how they compiled so many yards without scoring, but they did. Andre Johnson had nearly 200 yards receiving all by himself, on 9 catches, but not a single touchdown. Crazy. The Texans did not enough while still getting the win – underdogs win again!

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (-3) (PUSH) The Titans let the Dolphins right back in it, and because of their dismal play and lack of late game aggressiveness, all I got was a push out of this one.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-12.5) (Loss) And the Broncos lose outright. What a joke. They had plenty of chances but just weren’t aggressive enough against a Raider team that came out playing hard. And it may end up being a loss that costs them a playoff spot -against Oakland – yeah, the Raiders – gross.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (Winner) The Bengals were good enough to cover easily, and the Chargers needed that game winning field goal to win at home. Cincinnati is good folks, I keep telling you, don’t let their big loss to Minnesota sway you, this Bengals team is legit on both sides of the ball.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) (Winner) What can I say? Everything pointed the other way, but you knew the Steelers would find a way to not lose 6 in a row. With nothing to play for, except pride, they sure showed a lot, winning this game as time expired. This was the Lucky in LuckyLester…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) (Loss) Jim Mora should sell punching bags with his face on it, Seattle fans would buy those out for Christmas presents in one day.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Carolina Panthers (Loss) The Vikings were horrible – the Panthers showed up. Defensively, Carolina shut down a lot of Minnesota’s game plan, and in the end, this game turned into a Carolina blowout – making a lot of people wonder if Favre will continue to struggle in late-season situations.

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins (Winner) The Giants dominated the Redskins. I wondered if it was possible for Washington to continue their solid play, and came up with the answer, nope. As it turned out, in the rubber game, I was right on the money. New York was the much better team on MNF.

Free Football Picks Review: NFL Week 14 2009

Well, a couple underdog picks made me look really bad with my free football picks for week 14 NFL, but isn’t that always the case when underdog picks go awry? Work with me here… When you take a big favorite to cover the spread, say the Saints by 10.5 in Atlanta against a Falcons team without their starting QB and RB, and New Orleans barely covers, a field goal win, then everyone gets together and says, “Oh, tough luck, bad beat, I see where you were coming from, it’s too bad, you can’t win them all.” and so on and so forth – but when you take a team like Detroit to cover against the Ravens and they end up losing 48-3, everyone says, “what a dope, what the hell were you thinking?” – well, I was thinking lots of stuff, and in the end it didn’t work out. But dogs win, as you can very well see. Dogs didn’t always do me well this week, but I finished 9-7 for yet another winner. Not a huge week, but I’m starting to think my end of the year tally is going to look pretty nice. Not many losing weeks in that heap! Here’s how Week 14 went down…

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @Cleveland Browns (Loss) Here’s a favorite that just ended up kicking me in the shins. I’m not sure what to think about the Steelers, but looking at next week’s game, where they might be an underdog, I might just have to come back to the well. Can they play this terrible again?

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+10.5) (WINNER) This is one of my dandy picks of the week, Redman was much better, and the Falcons always come to play at home, just like they did against New Orleans. A field goal win for the Saints wasn’t enough to keep me out of the winner’s circle.

Detroit Lions (+13.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) The Lions failed me. I thought Daunte Culpepper was going to come out and do work, but the Ravens finally did work offensively, getting a huge game from Ray Rice, and beating up on the kitty cats.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears (WINNER) The Packers dominated the Bears on the ground, getting a great game from Ryan Grant, and beat the Bears by a touchdown. It wasn’t as easy as the masses expected, but the touchdown win did the job.

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ Houston Texans (Loss) Oh Seattle, as you well know, you should be fading me on Hawks picks by now. I once again blew it in trying to predict how this team would play, and put way too much thought into the fact that they were getting healthy – Seattle didn’t care about this game one little bit. Nice work Jim Mora… Or can I just call you Richard for long?

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss)The Broncos fought back, but they couldn’t get that late score I needed to turn a 12 point gap into a winner – Peyton and crew do it again. Amazing.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (WINNER) The Dolphins were the better team, winning outright in Jacksonville. What can I say, this game just felt like one of those Jacksonville was supposed to lose. A win would have really helped their playoff resume, I guess that’s why, it just meant too much.

Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (WINNER) Buffalo couldn’t contain Jamal Charles and the Chiefs rushing attack, but that’s okay, because they found 4 interceptions and just enough offense to garner a couple points – with less than 100 yards passing, the Bills won by 6. Gross. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings (Loss) The Bengals got handled pretty well. I liked them to make a game of this, surprise people once again, but I guess that will have to wait until next week. With a loss here, they should have a nice spread next time out. I’ll get my win one way or another!

Carolina Panthers (+14) @ New England Patriots (WINNER) The Panthers weren’t good, really, but they can run on anyone. Leave it up to John Fox and company to be within a score almost all game long and still end up with more pass attempts than rushes. It hurts my brain to even think about how that is possible, especially with DeAngelo averaging 6.5 yards per rush, and the entire team averaging over 5. Ouch, my brain… But they covered anyway, thank goodness.

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WINNER) The Jets stomped the Buccaneers and their defense had a whole lot to do with it. Weird, who would have thought?

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ Tennessee Titans (Loss) Here’s another road dog I wish I had back – what can a guy do? The Rams defense didn’t come out with much of a plan to stop Chris Johnson – maybe it’s impossible? I wish I would have seen the light before my wallet saw the toilet in this game.

Washington Redskins (pk) @ Oakland Raiders (WINNER) The redskins beat up on the Raiders because Washington is actually a very talented team and playing pretty damn well. Look at their last 5 games and you will see, they’ve had some tough luck and they very well could be 5-0 in those games.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (WINNER) How about them Cowboys? Actually, neither team played very well in this one, and I’m surprised the Cowboys didn’t pull it out. Still, the Chargers secondary is much improved, and they got the best of the Boys here.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ New York Giants (WINNER) What a game, just about as exciting as they get if you like touchdowns, big plays, and elite athleticism. DeSean Jackson’s speed is magic, I’ll tell you that. Philadelphia looked in control throughout, despite fending off a good fight from New York.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (Loss) The Cardinals let a stinker, stepped in poop with bare feet, swallowed a pack of gum, whatever you want to call it, and the 49ers fed the ball to Frank Gore for a huge victory. I wish the NFC West didn’t exist, I’d have a much better record!

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 13 2009

Well, you can’t win them all. Week “unlucky” 13 was my first losing week in my free NFL football picks in a long time, seriously, look at the records, I’ve been tallying up winning weeks like it was my job, (and it kind of is), but Week 13 broke in and slapped me in the face. A lot of games started out well and looked good going down the stretch, but finishes weren’t good to me and a Monday Night egg laid by the Ravens was the last straw needed to break my winning back. Here’s how the crumbs tumbled….

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New York Jets (-1) @ Buffalo Bills (Winner) The Bills couldn’t do anything offensively as Darrelle Revis absolutely shut down Terrell Owens. The rest of the Bills offense didn’t fare much better as they could only muster 13 measly points. The Jets did just enough to keep themselves in the win-column, winning by 6.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (Winner) The Eagles just flat out dominated the Falcons. From start to finish, the whole idea of Mark Redman being a very good back-up option, and maybe even a better down-field thrower than Matt Ryan was basically put to rest. The Eagles moved the ball easily, and Mike Vick even got in the end-zone twice against his former team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6) (Winner) The Panthers didn’t do much offensively, at least not after the first drive, but the way their defense was picking off Josh Freeman’s passes, they didn’t need to put up a gaggle of points. 16-6 was the final score, as Jonathan Stewart put in work running the ball for Carolina.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Chicago Bears (Winner) The Bears could only put up 17 against an improving Rams defense, and Steven Jackson rushed for just enough yardage to keep the Rams close. St. Louis didn’t get into the end-zone, but 3 field goals were good enough to cover.

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) (Loss) The Bengals were up 23-7 in the 4th quarter before they magically blew my cover and got me beat up by a mob of angry gamblers. The Lions got a late touchdown and covered up just like that. Hate.

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss) The Titans were close all day, they just couldn’t get the ball in the end-zone. No late game heroics from Vince today, oh no, it was Peyton stealing the show early, and the Colts defense bending and bending and bending with very little breakage all day long. The Colts are good. I still think I’d take the Titans +7 if they played one more time.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Loss) The Texans didn’t have it in them. Jacksonville’s secondary played much better than I imagined, and believe it or not, I think the Texans desperately missed Steve Slaton. Whether they’d like to admit it or not, since they’ve benched Slaton (though this week it was his health that kept him out), the Texans have really struggled to get wins. Weird.

Denver Broncos (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was an easy one. And I always love an easy one. The Broncos dominate bad teams, they’ve done so often this year, and the Chiefs definitely qualify, even at home in Chief-town.

Oakland Raiders (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Winner) The Raiders just flat out beat the Steelers, and Big Ben was in the game and everything. This really was fantastic, I can’t believe what the Raiders have done to good teams this year. The Steelers are falling hard, and all but out of the playoff race going into the final four weeks of the season.The Raiders, well, they’ve only beaten the Bengals, Steelers, and Eagles this year. Amazing.

New Orleans Saints (-8.5) @ Washington Redskins (Loss) The Saints should have lost this game, but Shaun Suisham wanted to see an undefeated season, so he missed a 2 yard field goal that would have put the Skins up 10. Sure enough, Drew Brees obliged and found Meachem to tie it up. To overtime we went, and a tough fumble call brought the Saints into field goal range – and they got the win. They found a way to win while the Redskins found a way to lose – weird, 12-0 and 3-9…

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins (Loss) Oh New England, yet another game that started so well, had me thinking “of course this was going to happen, you’re so smart, Lucky” – third person business and all – they the Patriots poo the bed and end up losing. I don’t know what’s more amazing, the Patriots losing all these games while being ahead in the 4th quarter, or Baxter eating an entire cheese log…

San Diego Chargers (-12) @ Cleveland Browns (Loss) The Chargers were killing the Browns, slowly but surely getting closer and closer to a cover. Ah, but then the “slow down game” started happening, and all of a sudden, the Browns score sixteen 4th quarter points behind James Harrison’s quick feet (dude should have been playing more a long time ago). The Chargers did nothing, but they did win – which of course, isn’t good enough for me. Up 27-7 going in, me counting my winnings, it’s never a good thing to do – that fat lady does some funny stuff before she sings.

Dallas Cowboys (+1) @ New York Giants (Loss) I don’t know what it was, but the Giants found some highlight reel plays to get late scores. Brandon Jacobs took a pass for 70+ yards and Dominik Hixon returned a punt for a TD. Dallas couldn’t run the ball at all. Those big plays put the Giants ahead for good, and despite a big day from Tony Romo, the Cowboys allowed the Giants to get back in the race, and now see themselves tied with Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East.

San Francisco 49ers (+1) @ Seattle Seahawks (Loss) Oh, I don’t know what to think about San Francisco. Since they finally signed Michael Crabtree, they’ve really struggled. I think they are trying to force the ball in the air too much. They should remember back to when they were 3-1 and running the ball 50% of the time – that might help them moving forward. This team has no identity right now, and despite force feeding the ball to Julius Jones relatively ineffectively, the Seahawks walk away with a win anyway. It was a close one, came down to Olindo Mare’s last second field goal. But the loss hurt.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) (Winner) The Cardinals brought it right to the Vikings. They passed the ball with a lot of success, kept that intense Vikings pass rush off of Kurt Warner, and the defense forced Brett Favre into one of those Favre-like-days that hadn’t shown up over the course of the season thus far. He probably should have had 5 interceptions, but 2 was enough for the Cardinals, they easily handled the Vikings.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers (Loss) I needed a Monday Night cover from the underdog Ravens, and I felt pretty confident. Unfortunately for me, Flacco was way off, he wasn’t throwing his normal lasers, and Ray Rice couldn’t find any running room against the Packers’ rush defense that has really improved from the first few weeks of the season. Green Bay looked very good while Baltimore looked old and injury ridden. This game was tough to watch, but the Packers definitely outplayed the Ravens and I finished a couple games under .500 for the first week in a long time…

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 12 2009

Well, it wasn’t a grand demonstration of undefeated genius, but it was another winning week. In a crazy week, where I struggled with afternoon games (which I rarely have trouble with), and definitely had a couple late game snake bites (thanks Vince Young, and Pittsburgh trying not to lose). By the time the Pittsburgh line came out late, it was the Ravens heavily favored, and that should have been a win for me, but I had to take it at even to start the week. All’s well though, because a blazing 7-3 start (including a 2-1 Thanks Giving), was just enough to keep me going green. Save the planet, follow my picks. Here’s a little review for Week 12’s NFL action – 9-7 overall.

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Thanks Giving Thursday Games:

Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) Just like I suspected, the Packers were just too much for the Lions. No strong pass rush for Rodgers to deal with means wide open spaces for Aaron to deal out passes to. I was a little worried all week, as I thought Culpepper was starting and figured that definitely gave the Lions a better shot to win. But, luckily, Stafford went out there less than 100% and I knew it was going to be a good turkey day.

Oakland Raiders (+14) @ Dallas Cowboys: (Loss) The Raiders still had a nice chance to cover late, and while they failed, watching this game you have to know where I was going with the road dog cover. Regardless, Tony and the Boys did just enough and I took a Thanks Giving day loss.

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos (+7): (WINNER) Like I said, the Broncos just have a different demeanor when they come out to play and are supposed to get owned. This line was one that described a good road team that has been playing well, coming in against a struggling home team. Sure, the Broncos had struggled, but not any more, and probably less, than New York. A good win for the Broncos, but the Giants are looking up at playoff teams right now.

Sunday Morning Games:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (WINNER) This was a great game to take the Bucs. They were up most of the game, and Matt Ryan was hurt early, and a cover was a sure thing from just about the 2nd quarter on. Now the Falcons came back to win, but that doesn’t mean much to my account. 

Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills (Loss) Well, this was an unbelievable line, especially with the way the Dolphins had been running the ball, but the Bills came out and thundered the Fins in the second half, and took this game away from Miami in a hurry. The Dolphins surely missed a little Ronnie Brown today, thought Ricky had another really nice game.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans (WINNER) When the Colts were down 17-0, I said, “I’d still take the Colts to win this game. It might be by just a point, but I still like them to win.” – And the rest went just like I figured. The Colts scored more than I thought, but hey, they covered and needed all those points to do so. I still think the Texans have a chance to win out.

Cleveland Browns (+14.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WINNER) The Brownies didn’t do much, but they didn’t have to. They played well enough defensively to keep the Bengals out of the end zone most of the day. And anytime you do that, 14.5 points is a tough dog to beat.

Washington Redskins (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WINNER) The Redskins probably should have won this game, but Redskins and “probably should have” never have much pull when talking about reality. But they definitely were a sure-fire cover for most of this game. I was rarely in any worry whatsoever.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3) (Loss) Oh, the Rams gave up some points, and the Hawks did a smart thing and gave Justin Forsett the ball. Jim Mora must have had somebody else making personnel decisions, or I’m sure he would have found a way to get TJ Duckett back in a Hawks uniform. This was still a gross game for Seattle, and I’d be surprised if, despite their ridiculously easy schedule going forward, they won 2 more games this season.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets (-2.5) (WINNER) Jake Delhomme. Yep. That’s about all I have to say. Mr. Revis, the rest of the Jets defense, their coaches and fans – they all say thank you, Jake. Thanks for hail-marry’s every time you throw the ball.

Sunday Afternoon Games:

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) (WINNER) The Niners came out shutting down the run and rushing the passer early and often. They did just enough through the air to get the win, and capitalized on good field position. I still think they need to run more to be consistent, but a win’s a win, and the 49ers got that done on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ San Diego Chargers (Loss) I expected a lot more form the Chiefs, or maybe I just am not respecting the Chargers enough. I think I’m on them next week, which should make me worry as soon as I type out my newsletter.

Chicago Bears (+12) @ Minnesota Vikings  (Loss) Oh Jay Cutler. Oh Jay. The Interceptions are mounting my rifle-armed friend. How good does Chicago look now? Brian Urlacher thinks the trade was stupid, I wonder how the rest of the organization feels? I know what I think – it was a great trade, for Denver. I thought the Bears would come out focused for a chance at a huge upset, but they just played the same crappy way they have been. I promise, new head coach in Chicago next season, new coordinators, new everything.

Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Tennessee Titans (Loss) The Cardinals did just enough to lose this game. That’s right, they played not to lose, and we all know how that always works out. With guys like Anquan Bolding, Steve Breaston, and a little receiver named Larry freaking Fitzgerald, you think they’d take some chances against a Titans defense that has been beat early and often this year. Nope. The Cardinals did just enough to have a late 4 point lead, and we all know what 4-point leads turn into when winners get their hands on them. Yeah, losses.

Sunday Night Game:

Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) This was my second straight last second tumble, and I have to say, Dennis Dixon was good enough to win this game. The Steelers didn’t want him to lose it, and that’s the recipe for doing exactly that. Get Dixon running the ball a little more, throwing on the move, making plays that he’s always made in football, and you get plays like his rushing touchdown in the 2nd half. Have him hand the ball off on 3rd and 6 and you get overtime. Dixon’s first mistake ended the Steelers’ chances, but the fact that they couldn’t stop the Ravens’ rushing attack despite knowing it was coming in overtime gave the Ravens a much easier kick to win the game. Tough loss, especially when I thought Big Ben would be starting, but you can’t win them all. Plus, later in the week this was a 9 point spread, and if you took my advice, you won this game for sure.

Monday Night Game:

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5) (WINNER) The Patriots will be shown as a team that got destroyed this Monday Night, and that may be true, but I saw a lot of open receivers down the field that got missed. I saw a lot of underneath coverage taking away the short crossing patterns, but the Pats didn’t move the ball down field to counter that. I saw Tom struggling with his accuracy most of the game. I also saw a defense that couldn’t do anything against Drew Brees – and this turned out to be a much easier win than it should have been. But I’ll take it!

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 11 2009

I built a nice, shiny, user-friendly record early going 7-3 before the afternoon games start, the same afternoon games that I usually kill. But, the usual doesn’t always happen, and I faltered a bit, going 1-3 with a tough Jets loss (thought I had that one as the Patriots stumbled and the Jets were down just 10), a tough Cardinals loss where Kurt Warner went down in the 2nd quarter, and the Cardinals early 21-3 lead didn’t hold the cover and they won by just 8, and of course that Bengals debacle in Oakland (at least that helped me win my survivor pool, though, silver lining is overrated, but it’s something). The Sunday Night game was tough one to watch, but a win put me to 9-6 going into Monday Night – another guaranteed winner! Believe it! Who else gives you all 16 games against the spread and wins week in and week out? Here’s how it went down this time around…

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Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers: (WINNER) The Dolphins proved that if your #1 running back goes down and you have a good rushing attack, you’re not going to all of a sudden struggle to run the football. A lot goes into a good rushing attack, and while Ronnie Brown’s vision, speed, power, and overall running ability surely helps the Dolphins do work, that offensive line makes the holes. Ricky ran through them all the way to victory.

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-2.5): (Loss) What can you say about this game, but wow. It was all amazing. I’m not sure I believe it happened, but the Lions got a win, it was on an un-timed down from the 1 yard-line, and a QB with a separated shoulder was the guy that tossed the rock. I lost, sure, but in awesome fashion. How does one predict a Browns/Lions game anyway? And whomever did predict it probably didn’t think the two QBs would throw for nearly 800 yards together. Yahtzee!

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) Like I said in the write-up, the Jaguars will probably win but they don’t deserve to be 9 point favorites against anyone. The Bills had plenty of chances to put this game out of reach and didn’t. If you were watching, you knew the Jaguars were going to come back and win. It was never a worry as far as covering was concerned, TO took care of that all by himself.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (Loss) Well, what can I say, I didn’t know the AFC North was going to come out and poop away victories like it was the divisional motto for the week. Everyone loses, that’s not too crazy, but the fact that the Steelers lost to KC while the Bengals lost to the Raiders – good lord – what a crazy week on the road for the North.

Indianapolis Colts (+1) @ Baltimore Ravens: (WINNER) The Colts were better than the Ravens, just by a hair. They had this Peyton Manning guy, the guy that always does just enough to win. I think I might take the Colts anytime they are an underdog ever. Not guarantees, but I’m pretty sure that’s how I feel about it.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-6): (Loss) All the Giants had to do was stop a Falcons offense sans Michael Turner – but they stunk it up on one last game-tying drive by the Falcons, and pretty much pissed away any chance of me winning. My dream of a win was crushed as the game entered overtime, and a 7 point win became impossible. And the Giants won. It’s my worst nightmare!

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Green Bay Packers: (WINNER) The 49ers did what they’ve done most of the year, made a game close, but didn’t finish the job. The packers were just a little too much, and coincidentally it was their commitment to teh rushing attack and Ryan Grant’s efficiency that finished off the Niners. Still, San Fran lost by just 6 – good enough for me!

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5): (WINNER) The Hawks stink. I was a little worried about this one early, into the 2nd quarter it was still scoreless, and 10.5 was looking like a daunting number to topple – suddenly, Brett went ballistic, threw 4 TDs, and the Hawks wilted like a flower in their crappy winter weather. On the bright side, with the way the Broncos are going, and the way they have played all year, two Top 15 1st round draft picks is coming closer to fruition.

Washington Redskins (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) I saw great value in this game from the get-go, and I wasn’t the only one. The way the line moved and the way people ran from the big favorite despite the Redskins’ terrible start to the season proved just how ridiculous this line was. Dallas found a way to get a win, but the cover obviously was never an issue.

New Orleans Saints (-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (WINNER) “The Saints haven’t played well over the last few weeks, the Buccaneers have been pretty solid considering how pathetic they were to start the season. Those two things have to even out, I mean, the Saints are really good and the Bucs aren’t.” It probably wasn’t that simple, but it might have been. Listen, sports have a funny way of evening out. I know the Saints were a little banged up, but they were due to play well.

Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (Loss) Kurt got hurt in the 2nd quarter, and the Cardinals were up 21-3. With the USC guy in there, the Cardinals didn’t score another point and won by just 8. I was right about this one, injury problems cramped my style by a point. What can a guy do?

New York Jets (+11) @ New England Patriots: (Loss) I still think the Jets are a solid team, and I still think you don’t give a good team double digits. The Patriots were obviously very motivated in this one, but it was still the Jets’ cover to lose. They were down 10 and driving more than once. Those turnovers are a killer – no doubt -but I’d go the way of the Jets again in a heartbeat.

Cincinnati Bengals (-9) @ Oakland Raiders: (Loss) “Lets make something clear, in 7 wins this season, the Bengals have won by more than 10 just once. They’ve won by 7 or less 6 times, a field goal three times. They play close games. Even against Cleveland, the Bengals needed overtime to get the job done – and they needed every second of overtime, too. Not only that, but the Bengals are going to be playing without the most consistent piece of their offense, Cedric Benson…” I warned you and myself, but I didn’t listen. I said I’d be stunned if the Raiders put up more than 10 points, and that 3 Bengals TDs would have gotten the cover. I am stunned, but if the Bengals don’t turn a couple scores over, I think they put this game out of reach. The Raiders won because they deserved to after Cinci played not to lose. Garbage. Amazing. 

San Diego Chargers (-4) @ Denver Broncos: (WINNER) This line didn’t show up until Saturday night, and it actually wasn’t as much of a beat down as the score shows. Sure, at some point it became a beat down, but the Broncos moved the ball well, had some tough things go the other way, and had Young Simms killing them early. It will be interesting to see how the Broncos respond to their recent tumble. The Chargers are playing some solid football.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) @ Chicago Bears: (WINNER) Well, the Eagles didn’t play as well as I expected, but Jay Cutler was right about what I figured he’d be. He should have gotten two more balls picked off in this one, but he just throws the ball too damn hard for a lot of defensive players to handle. Lucky him. The Eagles got some offense together in the 1st and 4th quarters, and that was enough to take out the Bears. This game was UGLY!

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-4): (Loss) The Texans has this one. But they let it slip away. Kris Brown missed another game tying field goal with mere seconds left on the clock – what’s new. He might find himself having lunch with Steven Hauchdksajfslk, the kicker from the Ravens – or shall I say former kicker? The Titans won outright, but a cover here was going to be tough sledding, no doubt. I took my Monday Night lump and finished the week 9-7.

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 10 2009

If you look hard enough, you’ll see basically two different weeks for my selections this time around. You’ll see my losses (Sunday Morning was tough for me) and my wins (the afternoon and night games brought me right back) – the bottom line is, it wasn’t a great week, but as I’ve done almost every mediocre week this season, I still finished out of the red. In 15 games this week I managed 8-7 and moved 1 more game over .500 for the season. I’m not a big fan of 8-7 weeks, double digit wins is kind of my thing, but when the tough gets tougher, a winning week feels good enough! Here’s how it went down!

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): (WINNER) The 49ers didn’t try too hard to win, but with Jay Cutler throwing them the ball in the red-zone, they didn’t need to. A late field goal put the 49ers up 10-6, and a last minute interception in the end-zone (Jay’s 5th on the night) slammed the door shut on the Bears, giving me a nice cover to start my week.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Carolina Panthers: (Loss) “Okay, I get it, this is obviously a trap game for the public bettor. And I see what Vegas sees in this one, really, I do, and yes, I’m making my Falcons pick anyway. What does Vegas see, you ask? Well, they see a Falcons team that can’t stop the run, has lucked out lately, and hasn’t really played elite football consistently all season long. They are just 1-3 on the road, and that offense that was supposed to dominate this season – they’ve been out-gained in 3 of the last 4 games and their opponents have gained more yardage through the air in 6 of their last 7 – even Jake Delhomme and the Panthers out-passed Matty Ice and the falcons. But despite all this, the hype train is running at full speed.” I hate, hate, hate, hate when I see what Vegas is banking on and I go against it despite my better judgment. I hate even more how much worse 8-7 seems than 9-6. Anyway, tough one for me, I’d like to think it would have been different had Michael Turner continue the 250 yard game pace he was on, but I’ll never know. Dang Vegas! You won this one, but I’ll win the war!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5): (Loss) The Dolphins were out-played by the Bucs. That’s the last thing I thought I’d ever say this year, but it’s true. Luckily, they are the Bucs, and in almost every opportunity they’ll find a way to lose. Well, lucky for the Fins, not as lucky for me, I needed them to “really lose” and 2 points wasn’t enough. I still don’t know how the Bucs stayed this close.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16): (WINNER) Just by the hair on my chinny chin chin – and yes, that’s right, I do keep hair on my chin for situations such as this. Unless I shave soon, I might have to start saying “just by the hair on my necky-neck-neck” – but I’m planning on running into a razor sometime this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-6.5): (Loss) Oh, the Jets can disappoint a guy, that’s for sure. I thought Sanchez had his swag back, but apparently not. The Jets defense just didn’t show up, and the Jaguars somehow limited the Jets rushing attack. I expected neither of those things to happen. That’s how you become wrong, when things just don’t go the way you expected them to go.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (WINNER) This was a huge one for me. The Bengals once again held the Steelers out of the end zone most of the day (well all day this time) and Cincinnati did just enough to pressure Big Ben (and not let him get away from sacks) and despite losing their stud running back, the Bengals just found a way to win. Amazing. Regardless of the outcome, it was easy to see that 7 points was just too much.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams: (Loss) Really? The Rams? How can a guy predict this stuff? Will the Rams play well next week too? Will New Orleans play like dump against a bad team? I can’t wait to search for those answers… The Rams were a 2 minute drill touchdown away from upsetting the undefeated Saints, but weird, they just couldn’t get it done when it mattered most.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans: (Loss) Well, I liked this pick heading into the 4th quarter, that’s for sure. Neither team had scored much, it was tied, 7.5 was looking great! Then the Bills did what they do late in games, 24 points were scored in teh quarter, none by the crappy Bills offense (or their team, for that matter) and the final score makes me look like a clown… It was close! I promise! I know you didn’t watch this terrible game, but it was close!!! If you never watch the Titans because they have stunk all year, and last year they weren’t expected to be good so they got no National TV games, you have to tune into Monday Night Football this week – Chris Johnson is some other kind of fast – awesome to watch that guy run!

Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins: (Loss) I don’t know what happened here. Even if Orton goes down, you’d think the Broncos could find some way to beat this Redskins team. But no, Jason Campbell actually looked good throwing the ball at times on Sunday, getting some nice touch on short passes, and using his receivers’ strengths. If he had pocket awareness the Redskins would be decent. Alright, that might be going too far, but defensively, the Redskins stopped the Broncos all day long.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: (WINNER) The Raiders are not as good as Kansas City. Their coaching staff is a question mark, their players are wondering what they hell they did earlier in life to deserve this crap, and their owner uses batteries to make his black heart beat – as for the way the Raiders play football, their offense won’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): (WINNER) Papa Weimer tried to pick against me in this game, what a crazy uncle I’ve enlisted. Didn’t he listen to a word I said? The Cards are a terrible match-up for the Hawks and Seattle fans. As they’ve shown lately.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): (WINNER) I almost always pick against teams that don’t look or play very good and still win. That was the Cowboys last week against the Eagles, and what do you know, they come out with a dud this time around… Green Bay completely shut down everything the Packers did, and when they did allow a little bust in coverage, they just out-toughed the Cowboys and caused fumbles.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ San Diego Chargers: (Loss)The Eagles have just fallen apart of late, and if they don’t get it together (now without Westbrook) they are going to fall right out of the playoff race (maybe not, there’s only 3 teams in the NFC with 6 wins). Philly needs to find a running game in a hurry, they sure didn’t find one against the Chargers.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) Most of the time, when you pick the winner of a football game, you also will win ATS. Especially when it’s not a double digit spread (I’m telling you, do the research and the math, you’ll see the numbers). This was one of those times where that didn’t work out. Many will blame Bill for his 4th down call on the 28, and I have to admit, I wouldn’t have done the same thing – but giving Peyton Manning the ball on about the 25 yard line (with a good punt) with 2 minutes and two timeouts might be a 50-50 chance to win. Getting two yards basically wins you the game. I wouldn’t do it, but I see why he did it. Either way, it looks bad, the Colts came back to win, the Patriots still covered. I won’t lose any sleep over it.

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (WINNER) This one was eerie at half time when neither team had put up a point. Gross. I think I’d rather watch a quarterback competition between Jon Gruden and Jaws than the crap I watched on Monday Night. But, the Ravens managed a few points in the 3rd quarter and what do you know, one quarter of points was enough to oust the Brownies and show everyone exactly what they I said earlier in the week, This team is bad, and last time the Ravens played them, the Browns were exposed for exactly what they are. A team with no offense, no defense, and a clown in a man suit acting as head coach. Dreamy situation. Yeah, I’ll take Baltimore.”

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 9 2009

Not a bad week at all, but it could have rocked! I was 8-3 heading into the last two games of the week, and I definitely liked my Eagles side. That didn’t work out, but the Broncos getting a field goal at home – I liked my chances for 9 wins in week 9, always fun to hit those week number totals when you get past Week 8. Here’s how my winning week 9 went down.

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Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “First off, I don’t think the Jaguars have showed me enough consistency to be favored by 6.5 points against anybody in the league, even the Chiefs.”
That pretty much clears this one up. Despite being up, and probably getting to a point where they should have covered, the Jaguars just aren’t good enough to trust as touchdown favorites, or anything close to that. Any team can win by a touchdown or two (aside from obvious teams that can’t – you know who I’m talking about JaMarcus) but the chances of Jacksonville actually doing that is way to low to ever bet on. The Chiefs lost and covered, weird.

Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-10): (WINNER) I was a little worried about this game because, well, I have no idea, but I was. It just seemed too easy. And when Washington scored early in the 4th to get within a touchdown, I finally realized why I was worried – because of the NFL, where magic covers happen. The Redskins just couldn’t seal the deal, giving up another long touchdown, this time to Michael Turner (whom rushed for over 150 yards against Albert Haynesworth and his crew of merry men) that got Atlanta the cover with is 58 yard touchdown run to basically end it. I had plenty to worry about, but the Falcons did just enough.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: (LOSS) “But here’s the deal, and it’s a situation I take very much to heart when picking games over the second half of any given NFL season; Unless there is some sort of extreme mismatch between two good football teams, the chances of a split are pretty good.”

My uncle was right about this one, blast his old, fragile heart. I like the split between two good teams, but the Bengals were able to run on Baltimore again, and that was the story in this game. Benson went for over 100 yards again, and the Bengals made life tough for super sophomore QB, Joe Flacco.

Miami Dolphins (+11) @ New England Patriots: (WINNER) “Again, I just don’t think you can go against good football teams and double digit points. The Dolphins may be 3-4, but hey, they are a good football team. They can stuff the run, and if anything, they can really run the ball well offensively. They play sound football, get tough yardage, and use that dreaded and famed Wildcat offense to chew up the clock, shorten games, and keep elite offenses off the field. That’s a covering dream right there. Then you give them double digit points? Come on, this is too easy right?”

Okay, so the Dolphins didn’t run the ball that well, but you still can’t give them double digit points. This one was close, but I’m pretty sure everyone on Miami’s side got the win. The Dolphins played closer than the score indicated, but Tom Brady was on target in this one, and Laurence Maroney rushed 20 times for a little over 80 yards. Anytime that happens in New England, the patriots are going to win. But the Dolphins still covered, that’s good enough for me!

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Chicago Bears: (WINNER)  “I think Arizona’s the better team, but more-so I think Chicago is at the wrong side of a tough match-up in this one. The Bears struggle against accurate passers, they struggle against teams that stop the run. Now, I think this could be a close game, but Arizona’s chances of winning this thing are pretty good. The Bears don’t really eliminate anything Arizona does, so the Cardinals should dictate the flow of the game. That’s bad news for Bears fans.”

And the Cardinals made the Bears look like a Canadian Football team. Jay Cutler put up big numbers, but the Bears didn’t stand a chance. Basically everything I thought about this game came true. That’s always nice.

Tennessee Titans (+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: (WINNER) Now for some reason this game didn’t get published, some deal where it didn’t save and I didn’t pick that up until Monday, but if you got my newsletter, you’ll see that I certainly was on the Titans side in this one, and I’m going to go on ahead and take my credit. Vince Young is a winner, he always has been, and he’s been playing great football over the last couple weeks -using his legs to make some plays, and better yet open up spaces for Chris Johnson to use his wheels. And Vince has been accurate too. This game was close, definitely, either team could have gotten the win – but the value was on Tennessee and they came through.

Green Bay Packers (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) “I normally don’t even like thinking about Green Bay as a big favorite, they just don’t commit to running the ball enough to be a sure thing as a big favorite -but…”  Who cares about the bu, it obviously didn’t amount to much. I had a flag football game on Sunday, but when I got back to the NFL couch, I had to give a chuckle when I saw Green Bay getting tricked by the salmon uniforms. How gross can the Packers be? As gross as anyone in the league, that’s why “I normally don’t even like thinking about Green Bay as a big favorite”. What can you say, everyone needs to listen to themselves a little more (well, not everyone, JaMarcus Russell needs to ignore himself) and I am no different. Those damned Packers!

Carolina Panthers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints Free Pick: (WINNER) “The value here is with Carolina and it’s because they have an elite rushing attack and any time you give an elite rushing attack 15 points on Sunday, that bet has value. Why it took this long to keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands is beyond me, but proving to me that they will run the ball to win is good enough for me to take them as a 15 point underdog, even against this year’s “best team in football”.  62% still like the Saints – come on. The Carolina value is good enough for me.”

There you have it, the Panthers led for much of this game, but of course Drew and company came back to get the best of the Panthers. Still, there was too much to like about this one, as you all recognized when the game was all but a sure cover throughout. You can’t give a great rushing attack 15 points no matter who you are.

San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants (-3.5): (LOSS) “When this line came out I was very excited, somehow, somewhere, somebody decided the Chargers were a complete enough football team to compete with even a struggling Giants squad. Nope.”

Yep. Now, the Giants still should have covered. They were up 20-14 with 25 seconds left and the Chargers stuck on the 30 yard line needing a touchdown to win. How often does a team without Brett Favre win that game? 10% would be generous. But the Giants let Vincent Jackson get behind the defense, (or he imposed his mighty will and forced himself behind them without their blessing) and he scores with 20 seconds left to lift the Chargers over the Giants by a point. You cna’t win them all. This game was tight, and despite being up late, I think the Giants weren’t the better team in this one. They had terrible play calling to start with, I mean Brandon Jacobs only gets 11 carries for more than 60 yards in a close game. That’s a joke. And they couldn’t get those big stops that have made them great. Oh well, here it is, PAPA WEIMER had it right! In fact, he should have won all 4 of his underdog picks this week!

Houston Texans (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts: (WINNER) “10 points is too much for me, mainly because good teams shouldn’t get double digits, and Houston is a good team. I know, it sounds as weird to say out loud as it does to write it, as I’m sure it’s just as odd to read. But it’s true. Another thing, Houston seems to always play Indy tough. Indy’s won 9 of the last 10, but this game has been decided by a touchdown or less in 4 of the last 5 contests. The Texans might not be getting over the hump, but they’ve been pretty damn close. 10 points for a good team is just good value-betting.”

The value was there. Houston had chances to win this game. And a 40 yard field goal to send it into overtime missed just wide left. Just the Colts luck. But this one was an easy cover, you just can’t give a good team 10 points – the value is with the dog!

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): (WINNER) “Ugh. This is a tough one for me. If you tune in weekly, you know I generally have some trouble picking Seahawk games, I think it’s because they are so erratic and I know so much about their team. Players wise, this team is very talented, offensively and defensively. They just have no confidence against good teams, and they can really stink it up. On the other hand, they can play awesome against terrible teams. The Lions are terrible, I mean, they just lost to the worst team in football, err Steven Jackson. The Hawks can throw the ball well, and the offensive line shouldn’t have as many problems this week when the Lions defensive front comes to Seattle. Still, this is tough because how can you take the Hawks as nearly a double digit favorite? The value isn’t there.”

One can see how I had trouble with this game. If you were unfortunate enough to be watching this game instead of, say, The Joy of Painting with Bob Ross, then you were privy to how dumbfounding the Hawks entire attack is. Down 17-0 to the Lions early, they fought back and took control of the game, but only to a certain point, then it was, “Slow down, stop being aggressive, stop doing what you did well to actually get back on top in this game, see if you can’t give the Lions another chance.” Well, the Hawks pulled that off, and it looked like a sure ATS loss until my lady says, “watch, they’ll throw an interception and the Hawks will take it back to the house.” It’s hot when she gets football lingo spot on, and this time she was right, not  4 plays later the Hawks, Josh Wilson took it back to the house. Spread covered, game over. Amazing. Tough to pick the Hawks as a double digit dog indeed, but as luck would have it, they got the W.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2): (LOSS) This rivalry never seizes to amaze me. I still think the Eagles are a great -2 bet at home against Dallas, but this one just didn’t work out for me. Philly had a dropped 1st down pass turn into an interception. They had an arrant throw late in the game that could have changed the game if it had more air under it. They also had a 4th and short first down that was one of the worst spots of the weekend, and then upheld in the replay booth because of a lack of evidence. Please.  But the bottom line is, Dallas played better football and probably should have won. The Eagles didn’t run the ball enough, weird, and Donovan had some big drops and a couple poor throws. Close game, but Dallas got me!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (+3): The Broncos looked good early, absolutely shutting down the Steelers offense. But the final 20 minutes or so belonged to the Broncos. The big score will tell people that Pittsburgh killed Denver, but that wasn’t the case, a couple things late inflated the score – but the bottom line is, that Pittsburgh defense is explosive. Big plays galore. This may have shown that same little crack in the Broncos saddle that Baltimore exposed – without the deep pass to keep tough defenses honest, Denver might have a real tough time moving the ball consistently. We shall see. This loss brought me to 8-5, a great start, a tough finish, a decent record for the week.