Tag Archives: Free Sports Gambling Picks

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears Sunday Night NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-2) @ Chicago Bears Sunday Night NFL Pick: This Sunday Night Football game is intriguing. Not because either of these teams is living up to their lofty expectations but because both are playing very poorly of late, losing 7 of their last 10 combined. The Eagles have lost 3 of 5 while Chicago is 1-4 since beating Detroit and starting the season 3-1. But there’s a little sexiness in there too, two good quarterbacks, one young – Jay Cutler, one a seasoned veteran – Donovan McNabb, an Eagles team that really needs to start winning if they want to compete for an NFC East title and a Bears team that is basically a loss away from looking forward to next year.

The Eagles are 5-4, both straight up and against the spread. They have lost to Dallas and San Diego in back to back games. Their other two losses were to the Saints and Raiders, of all teams. They’ve beaten the Giants, Redskins, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Panthers – not necessarily the best wins to signify greatness. The Bears beat the Steelers in Week 2, after that they have wins over Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland – so neither team has done much against the top level.

But here’s the deal, Philadelphia is a pretty good team – Chicago is a pretty bad team. The Eagles might not run the ball well, but it’s not like Chicago is worth a dime on the ground either. The Bears give away turnovers like non-perishables, and the Eagles can make a team look silly in a hurry. I’ll take the better team.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The Bearcats have been awesome this season, rocking an undefeated record still as the season winds down. They’ve played awesome under two different quarterbacks, and didn’t have a real tight game until last week when they beat UCONN by a pair.

West Virginia has had their ups and downs, but they’ve mainly beaten the teams they were supposed to while losing to a team they weren’t expected to beat in Auburn and a very equal team in South Florida. But now they play the Bearcats.

It seems like it’s been West Virginia in this situation over the years. Undefeated, headed into a tough conference game against a team they are better than, but still is tough nonetheless. These Big East teams just seem to beat up on themselves, which allows morons to claim their conference weak despite good records against the “good-strong” conferences. But that’s a different article. What matters here is that this Mountaineer team gets to turn it around and play upset-underdog in Cincinnati this weekend. Sometimes it’s easier to be the hunter – I’m just saying.

What really has me taking West Virginia in this one is the quarterback controversy in Cincinnati. It may just be me, but it seems like any undefeated team that has some little mental hurdle late in the season seems to stumble. In this one, starting QB Tony Pike has been medically cleared to play, but the back-up, Zach Collaros, has been lights out in relief of Pike. And thought Pike has been called the starter “when he gets back”, it looks to me like he is back yet Zach is still the starter. Hmmm… It’s something little, but maybe Zach is looking over his shoulder in this one. It’s a short week to prepare for West Virginia, but a couple Bearcat mistakes and this should be close enough for West Virginia to cover.

South Florida Bulls vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Free Pick

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South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+1)Free Pick: These teams are pretty dang equal. Both are 6-2, both have lost to just Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and both have played consistent football all season long, on the road, at home, everywhere. Neither team stuns you with their offensive attack, and while South Florida is a little faster on defense, they are a little smaller as well. Face it, these two teams are equal. But 54% like the road favorites (though favored by just a point).

The advantage that I see for Rutgers is the way they’ve played since Tom Savage took over at quarterback. The freshman gun slinger has been very efficient, made very few costly errors, and turned into a young leader or this football team. Since he started under center, the Knights are 6-1 with their loss being a 24-17 against 12th ranked Pittsburgh. The Scarlet Knights don’t throw interceptions, they don’t fumble the ball, and they control the clock. Sounds like a good bet to me.

South Florida might be the more talented team of the two, but they are known for their late season let-downs. Now, all they’ve done is lost to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, so it’s not like they’ve crumbled to bad teams, and a win against West Virginia helped salvage the last few weeks, but this is a team that hasn’t played well down the stretch of their schedules over the years. B.J. Daniels, like Savage, took over at quarterback for start QB Matt Grothe when Grothe went down with a season ending injury. He’s played well, but the team hasn’t performed better like Rutgers has.

I think momentum is on Rutgers’ side. They are playing at home against an equal opponent. The value is with them.

Clemson Tigers vs NC State Wolf Pack Free NCAA Pick

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Clemson Tigers (-7) @ NC State Wolf Pack Free NCAA Pick: As I expected, the spread value has moved away from Clemson, not surprising considering the Tigers’ talent and their success of late. It’s now at 8, but I got the Tigers at 7. Thus far, 65% of the public likes Clemson, and I imagine even more of them liked the Tigers as just a touchdown favorites. And get ready, because there’s more than a few methods to my Tiger-on-the-road pick where they are a paltry 1-3 so far this season.

Clemson has lost one pathetic game, getting beat by the Terps in Maryland 21-24. Aside from that, they’ve played pretty solid football against everyone. They’ve beaten Boston College, FSU, Miami, and Wake, those last 3 during their current 4 game winning streak. The Tigers had trouble against the heavy rushing teams they’ve faced this year, TCU, Georgia Tech, and Nebraska – all out-rushed the Tigers and did a solid job stopping the run.

That is not NC State’s offense. They give the ball to their talented QB, Russell Wilson, and they throw the rock. They’ve done so for over 2,500 yards this season, and Wilson has 24 touchdowns through the first 9 games. Clemson has turned to C.J. Spiller and the Tiger rushing attack, and they’ve reaped the benefits of one of the best runners in all the land. Defensively, they do a good job limiting opposing rushing attacks, and put pressure on opposing passers without having to blitz too often.

Lastly, and possibly most important, the Wolf Pack’s injury report has more patients than a high priced Hollywood rehab clinic. Already 10 players have been listed as “out for the season” – they have one more guy that is questionable, and another WR out indefinitely. If they can piece together a roster to stop C.J. Spiller and produce consistent touchdowns against the Tigers’ defense, they deserve to beat my pick.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami-Ohio Redhawks Pick

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Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+3) Free NCAA Pick: This game is bound to be a shoot out, a real passing attack, the clock will probably stop every other play – and thus points will be scored, no doubt about it. Both teams pretty much rely solely on the passing game. While Bowling Green’s quarterbacks have been more efficient, the Redhawks are right up there in passing yards as well. To win this one, they’ll have to cut down on the turnovers.

Miami has played a lot better football over the past three weeks while Bowling Green has struggled a bit going 1-1 over their last couple games. The Falcons beat the Buffalo last week, but it wasn’t smooth sailing. The Falcons needed 14 unanswered fourth quarter points to beat the Bulls by a point. Watching that game didn’t scream Bowling Green to me. They were outplayed, out-rushed, out-gained and it took a touchdown pass with seconds on the clock to get a win. They shouldn’t have won that game.

That being said, it’s not as if Miami is more consistent. They’ve struggled much of the season, they’ve only won a single game all season long, so it makes sense that most people see them doing what they’ve done all year, and losing another football game. But that’s not always how it works.

Miami-Ohio has beaten Bowling Green each of the last 3 seasons, and 9 out of the last 10 times these two teams have met. They are 8-2 ATS in those 10 games, and each of the last 3 seasons they have beaten the Falcons as an underdog. History doesn’t mean much, but it means something.

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16) Free Football Pick: The last time these two played the line was (-10) in Detroit, and it was actually pretty close to a Lions cover. This time it’s (-16) and it’s not like people think of either of these teams any differently. They still think the Vikings are legit and they know the Lions smell like… Sour beans. So, I would say this line is inflated a couple points – it should probably be 13.5, maybe, at the very most 14 – but it’s on the move and already up to 17 at a couple books. But I’m not scared.

Okay, I’m a little scared – I don’t like taking anybody at -16. This is pro football and if you’re ever a 16 point dog you are probably a good value bet. But even good value bets lose. And the way Matthew Stafford has been playing, and the way Minnesota just got two weeks to heal up and prepare for a Lions team that just pissed away a 17 point lead against the Seahawks a week ago, I just have to go against value and stick with Adrian Peterson and company.

Only 3 of the Lions 7 losses are by 16 points or more. They lost by 18 to New Orelans in Week 1. They were tied at 21 with the Bears in Chicago at half time, but they were outscored 27-3 in the second half and lost by 24. And they got shut out by the Packers 26-0. Last time around, Minnesota fought back after being down 10-7 at half time to win by two touchdowns and cover the 10 point spread.

The Lions have been double digit underdogs five times this year (which is amazing all by itself) and in those five games, they’ve lost against the spread four times (which is even more amazing. As double digit favorites this year, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS.

So, all things considered, all values ignored, I’ll put a little on the Vikings expecting more problems from Detroit.

Toledo Rockets vs Central Michigan Chippewas Free Pick

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Toledo Rockets (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas Free Pick: There was a type-o on my original selection in the Newsletter sent out Tuesday morning. I wrote that I picked the Rockets because the spread was way too inflated, but on the newsletter it highlighted the Chipps (+16) instead of Toledo (+16). This game has already moved to 17 in just about every book, 17.5 in a couple. But historically, that’s just way to high. Great value in the Rockets here.

Central Michigan have been favored by more than 16 points just once all season long, and they’ve played worse teams than Toledo. What does that tell you? Well, the cool-aid is wearing crazy Chippewa colors, and despite their solid start to the season, a win by two scores is still impressive, and I don’t expect much more from the Chipps.

The Rockets are 6-4 over Central Michigan over the last 10 seasons, but the Chipps are 4-0 in the last 4 years. Central Michigan has covered 4 out of the last 5 as well. Toledo is 3-1 O/U on the road this season. The Chipps are 2-1 O/U at home. Toledo is just 2-2 on the road, but have been in each of their 2 road losses late.

The one big question for me in this one is the health of #1 and 2 quarterbacks for Toledo. Both are questionable headed into Wednesday’s game, but they haven’t played in over 10 days, and the chances of one, if not both, being able to suit up on Wednesday Night is looking pretty good. I’ll gamble, I’m taking the Rockets.

Ohio Bobcats @ Buffalo Bulls Free NCAA Picks

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Ohio Bobcats (+3) @ Buffalo Bulls: This game looks interesting enough – at least the line is playing with me a bit. I see the Bobcats at 6-3 and Buffalo at 3-6, and normally that would mean something to the public. Not this time. The Bulls are still favored, playing at home against the Bobcats. Now normally a record means nothing to me, as you’ve noticed, I probably find more value in teams with poor records playing teams with neat looking records… neat. But not this time, I like what Ohio’s bringing to the party.

The Bobcats have played well in 2 of their 3 losses, falling to Tennessee by 11 and Connecticut by 7. Sure, they lost to Kent State a couple weeks ago, but they fought back from that disappointment to beat Ball State, and their looking forward to getting back on track against the Bulls. What impresses me most is that 4 of their 6 wins have come on the road where they are 4-1 on the season. That’s rare, especially for teams like Ohio.

Now the Bulls have played solid football over the last 4 weeks, losing the last two games they’ve played by 4 total points. Prior to that they had won 2 straight (be it to Akron and Garner Webb). Buffalo has had their running game going lately, and that could be enough to down the Bobcats, but that’s not where my money rests.

These teams are more equal than I originally thought, both have had some tough games on their schedule, both have had their runs of solid play this season, I just think Ohio’s a little better than Buffalo. As a 3 point dog on BetJamaica, I have to take the Bobcats.

Papas Picks NFL Week 7: Only Underdogs! Bears, Chiefs, Falcons

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So, I went 2-1 last week, and look to, at the very least, keep that 66.6% rocking hard as the season moves forward. I’m taking dogs here, nothing but dogs from here on out, and going to show you that if you pick right, the dogs can make you money. I have another trio of games this week, expecting three outright wins but I’ll take the points. Here goes!!!

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Chicago Bears (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: A lot is being said about Cedric Benson’s 1st game against the Bears since they cut him, blasted his work ethic, and basically told anybody that would listen how Ced was never going to amount to anything despite them spending a Top 5 pick on the guy. So at least one Bengal is going to be motivated come Sunday. But that’s not enough for me, and I think Jay Cutler has one of his “accurate games”, you know, 1 interception or less, carving up the opposing defense (though Cinci has been good this year on that side of the ball). I like the Bears to win on the road, I think their running game finally gets going a little bit, but not enough to make those owners that picked Matt Forte happy. Not that much.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): The Chiefs are better than people give them credit for, the Chargers are much, much worse. Seems like enough for me, but wait, I have more. The Chargers defense hasn’t show the ability to stop anyone (even last week, they stopped Denver a bit, but Kyle Orton still came back to slice them up just enough to give the Broncos an easy win). If your defense can’t get off the field, then you can’t consistently cover road games where you are favored by 4.5 points. It could happen, sure, but the good money is on KC, and I’m a good money bettor.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is hardly a true underdog, as a majority of the public likes Atlanta at most sports books, but they are still 4 point dogs, and in Dallas where the Cowboys have a lame-duck coach, their offensive coordinator seems to be slipping, their huge investment “best” receiver is probably still out with ouchy tummy, and their defense hasn’t been able to put pressure on anyone, it’s just hard to like the Cowboys. Tony Romo should turn it around a bit this week, but Dallas can’t lock down on opposing offense’s #1 threats, and thus Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should find wide open spaces in the friendly confines of Cowboys Stadium. If that big ass TV screen doesn’t get in the way, and if they can keep their focus on the game and off the hundreds of cheerleaders acting as cage dancers, I think the Falcons pull away from Dallas late. There it is.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins Week 7 Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins Free Pick: I know 80% of the public likes Philly in Washington, but I still have to lean on the Eagles. I wouldn’t bet the world on this game, it’s probably not nearly as lopsided as everyone thinks – but the things going on in Washington just can’t be ignored. I know the Redskins rate out really well against the pass, but who have they played? What frightening offensive assault have they faced since Week 1 when Eli did them dirty? Stop me when I get to one, St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Kansas City – exactly. Ratings shmatings. I like the Eagles to come out with a little bit of piss and vinegar in their cleats, and after losing to the freaking Raiders I think they’ll fix some things, both on the field and in their minds. Me and 80%, yikes, yeah, I have to take the Eagles anyway. Something about switching your play calling duties to a guy that not only didn’t have a job two weeks ago, but one who had just started watching the Redskin’s games in the last two weeks. Sure, I always say I could do a better job calling plays, but I’m really just kidding when I say stuff like that, the clowns in Washington actually believe that garbage.