Tag Archives: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

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As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

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This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Papas Picks: Week 17 NFL Underdogs Bets

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Well I was only 2-3 last week as the Raiders, Jaguars, and Redskins all let me down with stinkers that basically exemplify everything I hate about those three franchises. The Redskins never know what they have, so how the hell can you? The Jaguars can play awesome football against good teams, put themselves in a nice position to succeed, then come out and crap all over themselves like this guy Samson that hangs out down past 31st and Douglas. And the Raiders, well, Al Davis made a deal with the Devil, and when the Devil came to collect, Al Davis promised he wouldn’t kill him if he didn’t kill him… got that? Hate. So this week I’ll leave those three pathetic crumbs off my list of dogs, and we’ll go with some teams with gumption. Believe it!

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Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals: They say that the Packers don’t have anything to play for, and while that may be true, neither will the damn Cardinals. That’s right, they will get a home game in Week 1 of the playoffs, and that’s about it. By the time this game gets going, Minnesota will have already won and Arizona will be once again, playing for nothing. The Packers brass claim their guys will be treating this like a regular week – and that’s enough for me, I’m in. Plus I think Green Bay is flat out better.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2): The Bucs have won two straight, and I’m just as stunned as anyone. This will be 3 straight. Atlanta is a playoff caliber team, suiting up in Week 17 with no chance at the post-season. That right there is enough to count them out.

New Orleans (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have a decent running game, and Drew Brees is out, and I assume other Saints will be resting as well – but they are still playing the Panthers, and betting against the Panthers when they are a touchdown favorite seems like a great bet.

Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Buffalo Bills: Really? +10? I mean, I know the Colts will be sitting lots of guys, but these are the Bills we’re talking about, and it’s not like the Colts have been terrible when using back-ups all season long. You forget, this defense just plugs in players and succeeds. I’m not guaranteeing a win, but the Colts should cover a dime spot.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting game, for the NFC East Championship and a possible first round bye if the Eagles win. Dallas won last time, in Philly, and I think the Eagles return the favor.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: NFL Week 17 Predictions

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I hate to do this, really, the Bills favored by 7 points seems disgusting, but it’s going to be against Indianapolis and their second team, as I’m sure Peyton and crew won’t make it out of the first quarter. Will that be enough? I’m not sure, but I’m willing to bet that mediocre Colts run defense doesn’t stop the Bills rushing attack that has been solid of late (don’t get tricked by their relatively solid ranking, they are ranked high against the run because opponents are forced to pass against them).

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Just like last week when I was all over the Jets, this week should be more of the same. I know the Colts second string guys aren’t nothing, and maybe Indy will run the ball with some success against Buffalo – but the Bills have proven they can gang up on one aspect of an opponents offense and play pretty well – when one-sided offenses come to town, the Bills have some success. Well, I see the Colts coming in and trying to run more than they pass, and the Bills ganging up on that and holding it pretty well in check.

Buffalo doesn’t need a win and it will only pull them away from a better draft pick, but they’ll try to win, at least Jauron will, I mean it’s nice to win in your last game, right?

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7)

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Preview

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New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Preview: Face it my fantasy minions, playing Colts offensive stars is not something you have confidence doing in Week 16 – at least you shouldn’t. Not only are the Jets one of the fastest and most aggressive defenses in the league, but the Colts have everything they wanted when the season started. Sure, they could get to 16-0, and an undefeated season would be amazing – but Indy has made it clear that 16-0 means nothing to them, and sending Peyton out there in a game that means nothing against a defense that is playing for a shot at the playoffs seems like a risk they aren’t willing to take. You add that to the fact that the Jets do a very good job shutting down the pass, and I don’t see any other play in this one.

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The Colts are a very good team, and if this game was played three or four weeks ago, sure, I’d be taking the Colts as a 6 point favorite – no doubt. But this is Week 16, and it’s rest time for Colts starters rather they are saying it or not. Even if they do play, I doubt it will be for more than a half. And even if they play for a half, it is hard for me to believe that they will be all in.

The Jets will come out trying to win while Indy will come out trying to finish the game as healthy as they came in – those motives should be realized, and should make the Jets an easy pick.

New York Jets (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I think that, when this line came out, the line was reflecting a general prediction that the Colts were going to start resting starters. But when Indy announced that everybody that is healthy will play, all hell broke loose and the lines shot in another direction, and all the while most books don’t even have the game as an option. It’s tough when it’s the Thursday Night game and there’s no real injuries, and still Vegas can’t pull their collective heads out far enough to go with a proper line for the dang thing. But now, Wednesday morning early, the game is a 3 point spread in favor of the Colts, and while it’s no gimmie, I have to like Indy on the road here.

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It’s not Indy as much as it’s Jacksonville, I just can’t trust them. They’re good enough to challenge the Colts – nothing they do is flashy, but they have enough solid play offensively to put up some points, and holding an Indy team that isn’t playing at full strength, for rest or minor injuries, seems possible. Even with their unexciting defense the way it is. But how can you trust the Jaguars? They’re way up, way down, unimpressive at home, terrible on the road, barely beating bad teams, getting killed by a handful, and they just don’t play smart football.

In the end, I trust the Colts more than the Jaguars, and think their football intelligence, as much on the sidelines as on the field, will get them their 14th win over Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

Arses Five Favorites: Week 14 NFL Picks

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Well, I guess I was bound for a bad week – after thinking this stuff was much too easy, I went and got slammed last week, as the Bengals, Patriots, and Chargers all blew late covers and Houston just turned up the suck from the get go. Philly came through to keep me from being winless, but 1-4 wasn’t nearly as happy-go-lucky as my two weeks of 8-1-1… Here’s last week’s Review and this week’s picks:

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Week 13 NFL Picks REVIEW:

(W) – Philly -5 @ Atlanta: This one seemed too easy as the Falcons were without their main offensive stars and continue to play porous defense. It was my first (and only) win of the day.
(L) – Houston -1 @ Jacksonville: The Texans could have used Steve Slaton on Sunday – their offense had no punch, and while the Jaguars didn’t play awesome football, it was good enough to oust Houston.
(L) – Cincinnati (-13) @ home vs. Detroit: The Bengals had this spread covered up, but a couple 4th quarter touchdowns were as potent as a bloodsport punch to the face, and I went down hard.
(L) – Patriots (-3) @ Miami: I couldn’t believe this spread. Halfway through the game, I still couldn’t believe it. When the game ended, I couldn’t believe how bad the Pats offense had to play to lose. Damn.
(L) – Chargers (-13) @ Cleveland: The Chargers had this nice and covered up as well, but a late score got me where it counts, and just like that, 1-4 on the week. Ouch. So this is what losing feels like. I don’t like it.

WEEK 14 NFL Picks:

Saints (-10.5) @ Atlanta: The Falcons are down and out without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner – I don’t think Redman has it in him to keep the Falcons close, and I know that Atlanta defense can’t get it done against Drew Brees and his gaggle of awesome receiving options. The answer to that stupid Saints chant, not the damn Falcons.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ home vs. Denver: I just can’t go betting against Peyton. This team is looking for win #13, probably the last time they’ll care about winning before the playoffs start – and I think they do so easily.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago: I can’t see the Bears ever beating anybody good ever again. This one seems too easy. I know the Bears are 4-2 at home, but the only teams Chicago has beaten all year have losing records, and the only team even close to .500 is Pittsburgh, and they’ve lost 5 in a row, 3 of which were to terrible teams. Give me the Packers with a smile.

Jets (-3) @ Tampa Bay: The Bucs aren’t good. The Jets defense is too aggressive for a rookie QB- this seems like free money to me.

Cardinals (-2.5) @ San Francisco: The Cardinals are playing lights out and can lock up the division with a win over the 49ers on Monday Night Football. The 49ers have absolutely no run game, and I think that might mean a painful night for Alex Smith. I’ll take the Cards, easy.

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Week 14 Picks

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Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Week 14 Picks: 55% of the betting public likes the Colts, and I’ll admit, Peyton and company make it tough to bet against the horsies with their 12-0 record going right along with their 8-3-1 ATS mark for the season. But the Colts are 2-3-1 ATS at home, and they’ve lost each of their last two when favored by more than 6 points. They’ve won their last 5 games by a total of 28 points, that’s an average of just over 5 points per game. 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. Last week the Colts beat the Titans by 10 points, but Tennessee went for it on 4th down twice when inside the Colts’ red zone. They’ve been winning the close ones.

Denver became a bettor’s dream after the first few games of the season, surprising everyone and taking a long time for the books to realize (or credit them) for being real. The Broncos started 6-0 including wins over Cincinnati (miracle last second touchdown), Dallas, New England, and San Diego. But then they hit the wall and lost 4 in a row by a combined beating of 37-117. And just like that, they were the Broncos once again, no credit, no respect. Just how I like them. A 20-point piecing of the Giants on Thanksgiving and a 44-13 beatdown over the Chiefs in Kansas City, and the Broncos are still more than a touchdown dog at 8-4.

Now that’s my kind of bet. The Broncos have been at their best when given no chance to win, and there are plenty of people that expect the Colts to walk into Sunday’s game and come out with a 13-0 record just for showing up. I don’t think so. I think the Broncos match-up very well with Indianapolis, and a chance of an upset is great. That’s why I like Denver as a runaway dog.

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Pick

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Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Pick: It’s very hard to bet against Peyton Manning – the guy never gets down, he’s a brilliant leader, and he has his team’s confidence in any situation, up or down, early or late, in the rain or shine. As a guy that has never loved Peyton Manning, he’s grown on me. His dominance of the position, his amazing accuracy, his command of the offense, just everything about the way he goes about his business is impressive. Plus, he might be the best I’ve ever seen do what he does, and that, if nothing else, will give a player points in my book.

That being said, I’m going against him here. I said last week, in a virtual push (3 points or less) I will almost always go with Peyton. But this week they’re giving 7 points away to one of the hottest teams in football, a team that’s powerful rush-first attack might just be a tough match-up for the Colts. Vince Young has been very good since becoming the starter once again, and the defense has also come alive in recent weeks. I think 7 points is too much, and with all that undefeated talk all week, about how the Colts are going to rest even if undefeated becomes a possibility, I just get the feeling this might be the week.

The Colts have already locked up the division, and while they still have some things they want to get done, and Peyton shouldn’t have too tough of a time finding open spaces in the Titans’ secondary, seven points leaves me with too much to like – so I’ll take the Titans.

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Arse's Five Favorites: NFL Week 12 Free Football Picks

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Hey, what can I say, beginners luck, maybe? I was 3-1-1 and continued my money-making ways with some winning favorites in Week 11. I say beginners luck because it was my first time making public picks, for all to see, and all to judge, and despite one bad call, I did alright. From what I’m told, if I can go 3-1-1 for the rest of my life, I’ll be a very rich man. Sounds good to me. Let’s see if I can just… Here are five more favorites for Week 12.

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Week 11 Review:
(W) – Indy -1 @ Baltimore: Indy barely beat the Colts, but Indy only needed a two point win to cover for me, and they managed exactly that.
(P) – Packers -6 @ San Fran: The Packers were up big and up early, but the 49ers gnawed away at the spread and had me finish as a push. Damn them.
(L) – Jags (-8.5) @ Buffalo: The Jags should have lost this game, but they did just enough to win while failing to cover against a down and out Bills squad. Ugh.
(W) – Pats (-10.5) @ Jets: A late Patriots touchdown got me into a cover scenario, but I deserved it – the Pats dominated this game.
(W) – Eagles (-3) @ Chicago: The Bears might have looked better than the Eagles, but neither team looked good and the Eagles were just the better team, hence the close cover.

Week 12 Picks:

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: This guy Peyton Manning is worth betting on when anything a field goal or less is needed for a cover win – write that down.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ St. Louis Rams: The Rams are real bad, the Hawks are only real bad half the time. They should be healthier this week, and that’s enough for me, they are a superior talent when healthy.

Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) @ home vs Chicago: Listen, the Bears suck. Double digits may be tough to give a good team, as Lucky says, but the Bears aren’t a good team – the only good team in this match-up is the road guys, and they’ll win by at least 2 TDs.

Baltimore Ravens (-2) @ home vs Pittsburgh: I actually think Baltimore just needs this one more. And the Steelers are hurting. The Ravens will need to throw, but I think they do just enough to squeak this one out.

New Orleans Saints (-1.5) @ home vs New England: The Saints have been the better team, and I think their running game will step it up big, and some key guys will come back from injury to make enough of an impact to get the Saints to 11-0.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans Free Pick & Preview: Let me start by saying I think these two teams are way more similar than their records suggest. One is 10-0, the other 5-5, yet I think the Colts are just 3-7 points better than the Texans – but 3 points, and the Peyton Manning factor, that has me on the Colts side once again. I know this Colts team isn’t 10-0 worthy, they’ve needed some help along the way – but they are 10-0, and if I can’t find a better reason than “they should probably lose one of these days, why not this week” then I’m just going to go ahead and keep betting them if the spread isn’t too grand. 3 is never too much….

The Colts/Texans game has been a close affair in 5 of the last 6 meetings – but the Colts have won the last 5. Indy is 6-3-1 ATS this year, and has basically dominated against the spread while traveling – 5-0 ATS on the road this season. The Texans haven’t been great at home, and with even less of a commitment to the run (and the ball in Steve Slaton’s hands less than earlier this year) I don’t think the Texans will take advantage of that leaky Colts run D.

I think this game is going to come right down to it, maybe even the Colts down 3 with a couple minutes left in the game – but even then, I think I’d buck the odds and go with Peyton – the guy has IT.