Tag Archives: Fantasy Football Sleepers

Fantasy Focus: Week 15 Fantasy Football Preview

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This is the 2nd Week of Fantasy Playoffs in some leagues, the first in others, regardless, who to play is a big deal. Last week Josh finished atop the charts for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks, or something like that, and his picks have been on fire lately. I finished second, as some tough defensive picks and a goose egg from quarterbacks had the poo-fan pointed in my direction. Ryan and Papa are both trying to pick up some winners as the last few weeks wrap up, and you better believe I’ll be trying to hold onto the overall title. Doing work. This week I have some solid sleepers ready to wake up and give you a playoff win if you need some help, as I’ve placed an extra five guys in my “super sleeper” realm – guys that are waiver wire fodder right now, ready to spring into starter action for draft pick duds. It’s playoffs, nobody’s feelings will be hurt, just play the best guys out there! Here goes many things….

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Wes Welker – Defenses can focus in on Randy, that’s fine, but Wes had 12 catches against Buffalo earlier this year, he will have a teen count this week.
2. Ray Rice –  I have to stick with Ray Rice, the Bears can’t keep up with the main man in Baltimore.
3. Adrian Peterson – Carolina’s pass D is actually decent, their run D, well, you’ll see.
4. Drew Brees – You know Drew has that fire wanting a win over Dallas, and you know he’s going to make that secondary cry.
5. Chris Johnson – I will not take CJ off this list, he’s a must play, at the top of the world right now.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson – Despite last week’s lockdown on Arizona, the 49ers secondary has some holes, DeSean will find them.
2. Jamal Charles – The kid is lightening quick, and given 20 touches, he’s as good as gold in this match-up.
3. Thomas Jones – I like Thomas a lot again, his match-up is just too good, and he’ll get his carries.
4. Cedric Benson –The Chargers can give up some yards on the ground, and I feel a 120+ yard day coming for Benson.
5. Brandon Jacobs – I like his style, and his punishing runs look to be back. Albert might be out, look for 18-20 carries and yards to match.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –Again, he’s the best back in Seattle, again, he’ll have the most fantasy points amongst them, and Tampa, nice match-up.
2. Quentin Ganther – The Giants D front doesn’t scare me like they used to, the Redskins O scares me more than ever. Deal.
3. Vince Young– I like him again, if he’s still out there, he’s a nice spot start for a 2nd straight week.
4. Laurence Maroney– LM has been consistent, at the very least, for the Patriots – I think he runs a lot again in Week 15.
5. Alex Smith– The thought of the Eagles secondary says no, but don’t get tricked, if you don’t have a top guy, need a starter, Smith is a solid play.
6. Steve Breaston – He might be on the Waivers after a few pooformances, but Larry Fitz might be out, and the match-up is good, I like starting Ta-Tas this week.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Brady Quinn – Everyone is saying no, the Chiefs D beat up the Bills passing attack last week, and Brady threw for under 100 yards – so what, I like the match-up. If you need him, don’t feel like you’re going to die. At least double digit fantasy points from Quinn.
2. Chris Jennings – He might not be on the waiver, but I picked him up in a couple leagues, so he’s out there in most. He plays the Chiefs D and looks like a solid option if you have nothing else.
3. Maurice Morris – He could very well be in for starter carries, and some grabs out of the backfield as well, you could do worse than MoMo.
4. Devin Aromashodu – Let me say this, Jay Cutler has been lobbying for him getting more playing time for weeks, he finally gets it and puts up 21 fantasy points. Like it.
5. Greg Camarillo – Last week’s performance isn’t that crazy, and while I don’t see 100 yards, 5+ catches and 50+ yards seems likely against the Titans.
6. Deon Butler – Call me crazy, and this would be a tough start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it worked out. Burleson is out, and while Branch is #3, Butler is the big play guy left – I think he has a couple this week and has his best fantasy week of the year.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Hines Ward– Great player, struggling team, tough D, tough start in my opinion.
2. Mario Manningham– After a great start, MM is back-up duty, and against one of the best secondaries in the league, not a good start.
3. Matt Forte – Weird, Matt’s here again, I think he’ll do more blocking than running against the Ravens.
4. LeSean McCoy –I like the rookie a lot, I just think the Niners shut him down, and the Eagles find quicker ways to gain yardage.
5. Kyle Orton– I like the Broncos to win, yes, but pass a lot? no. Orton might get close to 200 yards, but I doubt he gets over that mark. More than a touchdown through the air? No – sit him.

***Nate Burleson is out. Turner is still a bit risky. Don’t start JaMarcus Russell unless you are throwing your playoff game, and if you are starting Charlie “Brown” Frye, I’m sorry for your mixed luck, nothing like getting to the playoffs and having to start a peanuts character***

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Dominate Your Draft: Fantasy Football Predictions from Josh

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Better late than never, my fantasy predictions for the 2009 NFL season are here to ease your draft day anxieties.  There is a ton of value to be found in the mid-to-late rounds this year, especially at the running back position.  Wise owners will recognize the opportunity to load up on WR talent in the early rounds if they don’t find themselves in a position to grab one of the top three or four running backs.  Remember, fantasy championships are rarely won in the first few rounds of a draft, but they can definitely be lost.  Be a savvy owner this season and choose based upon value, not name recognition.  With that in mind, here are the true pearls of wisdom to guide you on your path to fantasy greatness … because anything worth doing is worth doing better than your friends.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4th round? … yes please!

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

9.  Speakig of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers

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This season I’m giving you 10 sleepers. And by sleeper I mean: a player previously unrecognized as a fantasy contributor in 10 team leagues with 16 roster spots. What does that mean? It means I won’t be giving you sleepers like Ryan Grant, Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, DeSean Jackson, Devin Hester, Zach Miller, and Matt Cassel – all of which are certainly being undervalued, yes, but all are getting drafted in every single league, some as starters, and many of which either broke out last season, are still very new to the NFL, or have seen success in the past. These are not sleepers, these are undervalued players – the difference is grand. Sleepers, like I mentioned before, are previously unknown performers that could very well break onto the scene like Maurice Jones Drew a few years ago, DeSean Jackson early last year, Marques Colston before that, Pierre Thomas last season, Brandon Jacobs a few years back, and even Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen last year. Undrafted players, players out of the 160 list. What is the 160 list? That is the players drafted (on average) in the Top 160 players. Yahoo Fantasy Football keeps track, which is nice, because now I can be sure not to put one of the Top 160 drafted players in my sleeper list.

I’m also dumping the idea of write-ups on all the popular sleepers this season like Earl Bennett (Jay Cutler’s college #1), Mike Walker (the uber-talented and oft-injured 3rd year WR), Pierre Garcon (Peyton’s personal favorite for the #3 role), Shonn Greene (a rookie beast in Jet-land) and Hakeem Nicks (Plaxico’s rookie replacement?).

These are guys I haven’t seen listed as sleepers. I’m picking them out to surprise.

These 10 sleepers will go undrafted in most leagues, but at least half of these 10 will finish the season as a valuable force in fantasy football – so if your league is deep, or you want to take a chance on upside, reach for one of these freebies. Let the games begin!

(And by the way, all these players were selected prior to pre-season action)

Chaz Schilens

Chaz is going to be the top receiver in Oakland. That will, at the very least, make him ownable in most fantasy leagues. He isn’t going to set the world on fire like Lance Moore did early last year, but the Raider WR will catch a fair share of bombs from JaMarcus Russell as every defense in the league puts 8 in the box trying to halt that rushing attack. And why would they give much attention to a guy like Chaz? His name is Chaz. That being said, he’s got tons of speed, solid hands, and has proven the most polished receiver this off season. Zach Miller may be Russell’s favorite target, and he’ll probably be the top fantasy pass catcher in Oakland, but Chaz will be the top receiver in Oak town, and that will make him an asset this season. (60 receptions, 820 yards, 4 TDs)

Nate Burleson

After an injury filled 2008 (for just about everyone playing in Seattle) the Hawks are ready to turn their fortunes around, gather behind new head coach Jim Mora, and put up points in 2009. Nate Burleson is going to play a huge role in that master plan. Burleson is the most dynamic of all the Seahawk receivers, and that includes big money free agent T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Burleson has always done a lot with his touches, and already he’s being listed ahead of Seattle’s former number one, Deion Branch. That puts Nate and his lime green gloves opposite Housh in what should be a very solid receiving corps in Sea Town. Burleson will benefit from attention paid to Housh, Jim Mora’s love for the play action pass, and defenses focusing in on the run game. Nate is rarely getting drafted in leagues owned by a tiny little percentile of the public, but he’s a starter on a team with a good offense and accurate quarterback. I don’t get it. Seems like a no-brainer to me. (68 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TDs)

James Jones

To be fair, I’ve always loved the way James Jones plays the game. He’s a beast. He’s a poor-man’s Anquan Boldin – he goes over the middle and takes on tacklers as if he’s hitting them. There have been stories praising his off-season work, his impressive play in camp, and his head coach’s promises to get him more involved. Not a bad turn-around for a guy who basically lost the #3 job to Jordy Nelson last season. On a team full of solid receiving options I thin Jones will have his best season yet. He’s still just a #3, but here’s a guy that could blow up if an injury derails either Donald Driver or Greg Jennings’ this season. There aren’t a lot of #3’s that could come in off the bench and produce like top options, but I believe Jones can do that. Not only that, but he’s a big time red-zone threat and will likely produce enough to be owned in fantasy leagues even without an injury to one of the top guys in GB. Solid now, huge upside. (55 receptions, 640 yards, 6 TDs)

Laurent Robinson

I also liked Laurent when he was a Falcon, but for some reason they dumped the guy and stuck with Michael Jenkins opposite Roddy White. That’s okay, because now Laurent will have a chance to be the receiving red-zone option in St. Louis. Sure, I know what you’re saying, 12 trips to the red-zone all season doesn’t allow for any receiver to be called a red-zone threat. But I think the Rams will be better offensively this season. Not hard to improve on last year, a year in which I thought they were the worst team in football. (Maybe not record-wise, thanks to Detroit – the worst team ever, the Rams slipped by without much mocking from the gallery – but they were BAD) Donnie Avery may be the #1 guy, but Robinson had a clear lead on the #2 job, and Avery going down for a possible 6 week absence only gives Robinson more of a chance to cuddle up to Marc Bulger. And as much as Marc’s been hit, he could use a go-to guy. Robinson is in a great situation for targets, and his talent should prove enough to make him an own-able asset this season. (60 receptions, 700 yards, 5 TDs)

Bernard Scott

I don’t know why, but I have yet to find a reason to be in love with Cedric Benson as a starting running back, even if it is in Cincinnati. Even so, Benson will never be a burner, never be a game breaking presence that can score anytime he touches the ball. I’m rooting for the guy, yes, but he’ll be a bruiser at the very best, struggling through the bumps and bruises to get 4 yards a carry on a good day. That’s where Bernard Scott comes in. Scott is a burner – both in life and on the football field. The guy has had his fair share of troubles, no doubt about that, which is why the immensely talented runner found himself in Division II, which is why he found himself drafted at the end of the 2nd day, which is why nobody gives him much of a shot to succeed. But look into his game, listen to what his teammates say about him, watch him run, and you’ll start to believe. Some will say that he’s sure to become just another Cincinnati Jail-Bird, but I don’t see it. I see a kid that is going to run into success. His speed and vision had him throwing out college touchdown totals that LenDale White would be proud of. On a team that could use a talented game breaker in the back field, Scott looks to be in line for some nice touches this year. (500 yards rushing, 45 receptions, 400 yards receiving, 6 total touchdowns)

James Davis

Jamal Lewis is one of three things: either he’s lying on his birth certificate, his legs are twice his actual age, or he’s been in the league for half his adult life. All point to trouble staying healthy this season. Lewis has been a beast. He’s surprised, disappointed, and surprised again – and there’s really no telling what he does this year in an offense that looks anything but impressive, stuck right in the middle of a very tough division with two of the greatest defensive teams the NFL has. But he’s 29 going on 40 and unless he sipped from the golden goblet of youth this off-season, a full load is something he’s terribly unlikely to carry. That leaves room for a talented youngster in Cleveland. And while I’ve always like James Harrison, the former WSU Cougar hasn’t been all that impressive over his career. That leaves room for a bulldozer from Clemson to get some looks in Cleveland’s backfield. The Browns have a solid offensive line, which could be just the thing James Davis needs to succeed. Two years ago, at Clemson, Davis was a beast. People looked at him as a first day pick because of his size, athleticism, and speed. Last year, he struggled behind a mediocre offensive line and lost some of his luster. But word is he’s been great in camp, and I’ve always liked his style. Given a chance, he could be a steal for fantasy owners. (600 yards, 6 TDs – but he could be a second half stud, so pay attention)

Daunte Culpepper

Daunte has been big time before, but face it, he’s of the sleeper quality here. He hasn’t had a successful year in quite some time, and he’s just not getting drafted at all. Everyone has given up on Culpepper, everyone besides me. So yeah, I’ll be the guy to tell you “Draft this guy as your back-up instead of Chad Pennington, one of the rookies, or Jake Delhomme.” I may have not ranked him high, but he’s moving up my list. He’s got a great young running back in Kevin Smith. He has one of the most talented receivers I’ve ever seen. The Lions drafted a top-flight TE with great hands in Brandon Petitgrew. Sure, the Lions also drafted Matthew Stafford 1st overall, but I’m willing to bet Culpepper gets the starting job in Detroit, and I’m thinking he pulls a Drew Brees and keeps the job. Pep was an absolute stud for a couple years in Minnesota. Then it rained, and when it rains some guys get drenched, and Pep was one of those guys. But you can’t tell me he lost all his talent. Well you can, but I won’t believe you. Not until I get a chance to see him fail. I picked him last night in one of my drafts, he’s my back-up, and worst case scenario – he’ll be relegated to back-up duties and I’ll drop him, but I only wasted a 14th round pick on the guy anyway. I’ll pick up some other QB and hope he can keep my bye week warm when my starter goes down. On the upside, Pep gets to run a talented group of young players in Detroit, and breaks the 20 TD mark for the first time in a long time. I’ll take my chances. (3400 yards, 22 TDs, 240 rushing yards, 2 TDs)

Jacoby Jones

Everyone picked this cat to beat out Kevin Walter last season, but injuries and the fact that Walter is better than your average white guy sent Jones to the showers. But he’s still very talented, and lots of hard work, effort, and commitment has him rocking summer camps. Jones has the talent to be a #2, and you never know, he might get his chance. Andre Johnson hasn’t been the beacon of health in his short career, and Jones could be his fill in. Right off the bat I see Jones getting in and making things happen as a #3, and I’m telling you, his upside is better. I’m not projecting great numbers from Jones, but if he puts it all together, and gets a chance somewhere down the line, he could put up these kinds of totals in 6 or 7 weeks. Might be worth a chance in deep leagues. (40 receptions, 550 yards, 4 TDs)

Laurence Maroney

I may be looking in the past here, where I saw a great running back with speed, size, and super vision coming out of Minnesota. I thought he’d be perfect for Mike Shanahan’s scheme in Denver, but he got drafted by the Patriots, a team looking for a guy to replace the aging Corey Dillon. It’s been a few years since then, and still, Maroney’s best season for the Patriots was in back-up duty to Dillon. But the talent is there. He’s gone through lots of injuries and had his psyche hurt a few times. He, undoubtedly, has the most upside of any Patriot back right now. Sammy Morris has been successful, Fred Taylor has had one of the more successful careers amongst all RBs, and Maroney has just been a bust so far. But I’m telling you, a very late pick for a talented back in an offense that will likely run the ball more than in years past has a good ring to it. The upside is grand. The downside is a waiver wire move. He’s worth the risk. (1000 yards, 8 TDs)

Justin Forsett

As much as I’m hoping Julius Jones is allowed to run the ball 20 times a game this season, nobody has really given him that opportunity, ever. TJ Ducket? – come one, get serious here. That leaves Justin Forsett, a guy that might just get the Warrick Dunn role in a Seahawks backfield that Jim Mora is trying to figure out. Jones will get a couple games to show he can be the man, and his 4.4 yards a carry last season makes him a nice sleeper candidate as well (but he’s ranked too high to make my sleeper list) so why not throw out Forsett’s name. Because even though he’s listed as the #3, he’ll certainly hold more value than T.J. Duckett. Keep an eye on Forsett, draft him as a last round sleeper in deep leagues, and as soon as Jones has some trouble, or even sooner than that, he might get a chance to be more than just a change of pace back, and Forsett might be an absolute steal for you. (600 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, 4 TDs)