College Bowl Games Picks, Predictions & Previews 02/01/2010

I didn’t ace Friday’s New Years’ games, going 2-3 with a couple losses in games I took the favorite (West Virginia and Oregon) but I look to fight back in Saturday’s lesser known bowl games. No highly ranked Top 10 match-ups here, oh no, the BCS takes a break from “blessing us” with their handy work, and we get to see unranked foes go at it, lower ranked teams try to beat up on unranked opponents, and probably some really good football. Don’t get it twisted, highly touted games rarely live up to the billing while these small bowl games often go big. Here’s some small write-ups for Saturday’s games.

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Northern Illinois Huskies (+7) @ South Florida Bulls (International Bowl): The Huskies won 4 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible, at one point winning 4 in a row before losing their final two games to end the season (both against bowling teams, Central Michigan and Ohio). South Florida lost 5 of their last 7 after a 5 game winning streak to open the season. They didn’t lose to bad teams by any means, but that doesn’t mean they played like a dream either. Rutgers spanked them 31-0, but they did beat West Virginia. This is a tougher game than people are giving credit, and the 7 points are something I expect to come in handy.

Connecticut Huskies @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5) (AT&T Cotton Bowl): I really like the Huskies, have been pulling hard for them all season long, and will be rooting for them to win again here – but that doesn’t keep me from using my brain and seeing a very small chance of that happening. The Gamecocks are too tough defensively, and with all that time leading up to this game, I think the Ol’ Ball Coach will have a nice plan of attack on tap.

Mississippi Rebels (-3) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (PAPAJOHNS.com Bowl): I haven’t been a big fan of Mississippi, and watching them play at times this season has been painful – but they turned the season around a bit and have looked semi-successful toward the end of the season. They have some great players, and a RB that can dominate a game. I think they take care of the Cowboys.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ East Carolina Pirates (+8) (AutoZone Liberty Bowl): East Carolina had a great season, and while they can lay eggs, so can the Razorbacks. Arkansas can play great and play like pee, and something tells me a 4 week wait to play the East Carolina Pirates won’t have them rolling with excitement. East Carolina won 6 of their last 7 including 4 in a row to end the season. I think they keep on that hot streak and stick with the Razorbacks.

Michigan State Spartans @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7) (Valero Alamo Bowl): I know there’s been some crazy ish going down amongst these two teams, and a lot of players are probably really grateful a game is just around the corner so they can play football and quit talking about off-the-field problems. But I actually think Michigan State’s problems greatly out-weigh Texas Tech’s dilemma, especially for just one game. Mike Leach’s firing will certainly effect the Red Raider team, but probably next season more than this one day. His staff knows what he wants to do, and they’ll do it. As for the Spartans, loosing a gaggle of important pieces for a suspension because of a fight probably puts them in an impossible spot. The Raiders have almost every single one of their players for this game- that’s important.

Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen Free Football Pick

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Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen Free Football Pick: Over the last few years, the Midshipmen have dominated this rivalry. The Army/Navy rivalry is pretty close to even over the years, but as the Midshipmen have won easily, and the programs have lost a lot of the luster they carried when they were elite football programs, the game has gotten less publicity. But these teams are both on the upswing, and a close and good game could really help the game gain a little more spotlight. I know it’s not competing with much. The only football game being played this Saturday is the Army-Navy game.

The Army have put together their best and most competitive team in years. Their new coach has a disciplined system in place, and he seems to be getting the most out of the players he has. They are one win away from .500 on the season, 5-6, and have a better chance to upset the Midshipmen than they’ve had in years. They’re riding a 2 game winning streak coming in, but will that be enough to cover against Navy?

I say no. The Black Knights have been knocked out by good football teams. Air Force beat them by 4 touchdowns. Rutgers beat them by 17. Even Temple won by two touchdowns. Duke got a 16 point win. The Midshipmen are a good team, they are what the Black Knights are striving to become. Navy has played tight against everyone they’ve played (aside from the bad teams they’ve killed). The biggest defeat the Midshipmen have this season was a 13 point loss to Pittsburgh. Everything else has been within a score. I think they handle the Black Knights once again.

Army Black Knights @ Navy Midshipmen (-14)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Week 13 Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Week 13 Pick: I think the bettors are falsely in love with the Buccaneers, because as of now, the public percentage rests with the Buccos. The line keeps moving in the other direction however, and when I’m taking a spread that has that kind of backward crazy round about movement, I find comfort in being on the side I’m on here. The public likes Tampa, the smart bets seem to like Carolina, and thus the line moves opposite the masses.

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What the bettors see in Tampa Bay is pretty simple, and I have to respect it at lest a little. They see a team that has won against the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, all of which were quarterbacked by their prized rookie, Josh Freeman. The kid has shown he can make all the throws, and while he hasn’t been deadly accurate, he’s shown an ability to make more plus plays than minus – that’s something Jake Delhomme hasn’t been able to do for the Panthers.

But maybe now that Delhomme is likely to miss Sunday’s game, or at the very lest, likely to be less than 100% as a thrower, the Panthers will do what they should have been doing every single game this season, throwing less than 20 times while running more than 40. Against the Buccos, I have to like that percentage, especially with the running backs and offensive line push-power the Panthers have shown. With Delhomme out, I actually like Carolina more. There’s only a couple situations like that in the league (see Oakland, Detroit, and Buffalo).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6)

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears Sunday Night NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-2) @ Chicago Bears Sunday Night NFL Pick: This Sunday Night Football game is intriguing. Not because either of these teams is living up to their lofty expectations but because both are playing very poorly of late, losing 7 of their last 10 combined. The Eagles have lost 3 of 5 while Chicago is 1-4 since beating Detroit and starting the season 3-1. But there’s a little sexiness in there too, two good quarterbacks, one young – Jay Cutler, one a seasoned veteran – Donovan McNabb, an Eagles team that really needs to start winning if they want to compete for an NFC East title and a Bears team that is basically a loss away from looking forward to next year.

The Eagles are 5-4, both straight up and against the spread. They have lost to Dallas and San Diego in back to back games. Their other two losses were to the Saints and Raiders, of all teams. They’ve beaten the Giants, Redskins, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Panthers – not necessarily the best wins to signify greatness. The Bears beat the Steelers in Week 2, after that they have wins over Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland – so neither team has done much against the top level.

But here’s the deal, Philadelphia is a pretty good team – Chicago is a pretty bad team. The Eagles might not run the ball well, but it’s not like Chicago is worth a dime on the ground either. The Bears give away turnovers like non-perishables, and the Eagles can make a team look silly in a hurry. I’ll take the better team.

Arses Five Favorites: Week 11 NFL Picks

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Okay, so this is my first picks article ever, and while I’ve said many times that this stuff is easy, we’ll just have to see. I’ve done alright on my own card this year, so Lucky asked me to put my thoughts (that were making me money) down to paper. Since I’ve made most of my money taking favorites, I usually bet 3-5 favorites a game, LL told me to just go with what’s working and select my top five favorites per week (plus he says, Papa has the dogs). He told me that it was okay to go opposite him, which makes me even happier (because like I always say, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at). Here’s what I got for week 11.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens: It’s funny, Lucky got these guys as a dog (though just a point) earlier in the week, I get them here as a favorite, and I have to admit, I’m equally happy. I don’t see a point making the difference. There’s no doubt that the Ravens have some confidence, and they love when nobody gives them a chance, giving them a shot in this game. But Peyton has owned the Ravens, and this isn’t even close to Baltimore’s best secondary they’ve had over the years. This one seems easy enough.

Green Bay Packers (-6) @ home vs. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have played a lot of close games, and they can run it, but the Packers are definitely a trouble-match-up for San Francisco. They put a lot of pressure on young receivers with their physical corners, and they don’t run the ball that much on offense, so who cares if the 49ers shut down the run well. San Francisco did not play to win last week against Chicago, and they are lucky to hold on against a bad team. I like Green Bay to win by a couple touchdowns.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) @ home vs. Buffalo Bills: The Jaguars have been great of late, and they are feeding their best player the ball. The Bills are a mess, fired head coach, terrible offense, new quarterback, injury ridden defense – nothing much to like there. Jacksonville is better than given credit for.

New England (-10.5) @ home vs. New York Jets: I just don’t see the Jets hanging in there twice in a row. The Patriots weren’t playing well to start the season while the Jets were playing on cloud 9. That hasn’t continued, on either side. The Pats have been back to domination on offense, their defense has been stout, and the Jets have fallen hard in both areas. Injuries and youth have not served them well. Plus you have the Pats coming out fired up, looking for redemption and to put last week’s last second loss to the Colts out of their minds. I expect a Patriots killing.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears: Lucky’s right about this one, the Bears just aren’t good. Neither of these teams have been stellar, but the opportunistic Eagles defense against Jay Cutler – lets just say Va-Jay-Jay Cutler will be making that shame face early and often. I’m looking for him to wrap up the passing title this week, passing to opposing teams that is. Gimmie the Eagles.

Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies Free Pick

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Boise State Broncos (-24.5) @ Utah State Aggies Free Pick: Like I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, the Broncos are out for blood and embarrassment every time they lace them up and walk onto a football field. They are a GREAT team and have almost no chance at a National Title. They know that if they put up a stinker, even in a winning fashion, against a team like Utah State, their dream scenario has no chance of coming true. Just look at what they’ve done lately. They’ve won by at least 38 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week’s destruction of a solid Idaho team just shows what they can too when given a chance to prove themselves.

This week it’s Utah State – an underrated Aggie team that hasn’t lost by more than 18 points all season long. Now, they haven’t played a team like Boise State, but still, you have to think they’d be a decent value considering their ability to stick within a couple scores of every team they’ve played.

Against great small school teams like BYU and Utah, Utah State held their own losing by 18 on both occasions. There’s a chance that happens again here – but with their winning-margin being important, I know Boise State will do their best to drop 50 on Utah State. With how focused and sound their defense is, I don’t see the Aggies scoring more than 3 touchdowns – even that’s a stretch. 52-17 is about what I expect. The Broncos are too good. The fact that you can get this game for -23 at most books makes Boise even more likely to cover. 45-21 covers for -23 bettors. I need even more.

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts (+1) @ Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview: This spread tells me Vegas thinks these two teams are very close, but Indy is a little better. I agree with that. Peyton Manning is obviously the trump suit in this game, and he’s proven over the years that he’s tough to gamble against.

Despite playing their home games on turf, the Colts have played really well on grass over their last 8 games, going 6-1-1 ATS. However, the Colts haven’t been as good of a cover bet against team’s with winning records, going 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine that qualify. Baltimore has been, consistently, one of the best cover bets in the NFL. They are 19-6 ATS over the last two seasons (including the playoffs). But they haven’t been great against the Colts.

The Colts have covered 5 straight against the Ravens, and they’ve won 6 in a row. Peyton Manning has Baltimore’s number, that’s for sure, not one team has had anywhere close to that much success against one of the best defenses in the league over the lat 10 years. Peyton and company put up 31 points on the Ravens last year, and in 2007 the Colts dumped the Ravens 44-20. Indy has beaten the Ravens in Baltimore three straight times.

The only team with a solid passing attack that Baltimore has beat this year was San Diego – and the Chargers out passed the Ravens by 240 yards. But the Ravens are almost guaranteed to out-rush the Colts, and Baltimore is 5-1 this season when out-rushing their opponent. Who is responsible for that one loss? Tom Brady. Yeah – I’ll take Peyton.

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Free Football Pick: I know everyone and their mother is going to be on Minnesota, and I know the line has actually gone down from where it opened despite that fact. That’s usually not a good sign. But how can one justify betting money on the Seahawks right now? I know the value is there for them, they aren’t the Lions, Rams, Raiders, Browns or Bucs and they are getting double digit points – that, in and of itself, has value. But when risk is greater than value it’s either a no bet or a pick for the home favorites. Since no-bets aren’t a part of my daily grind, I’m going to go ahead and go for the latter.

Forget history, because this is Brett Favre’s Vikings team, and this is his first year running this show. Forget that this is Seattle’s biggest underdog spread all year long, because this is the best team the Hawks have played all year long. Also, Seattle has been a big dog (9 points or more) three times this season. What’s their record in those 3 games? 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They were beaten by 11 in Arizona last week despite going up 14-0 in the first quarter. They were beaten by 21 in Dallas. And the Colts slapped them around by 17 in Indy as a 10 point favorite.

Could the Vikings have a let down? Sure. It’s possible. And the Vikings have shown some open alleys in that secondary. But should Seattle be able to give Matt Hasselbeck the time he needs with that offensive line against that defensive front? Should the most physical running back in the NFL have trouble against a defense that really struggles to tackle physical runners? Should Brett Favre give the Hawks a pity win like he gave Michael Strahan a pity sack back in the day? That answer is NO! To all those questions.

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers Week 11 Free Pick

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Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers Week 11 Free Pick: John Fox, here’s to hoping you blow it again! This week’s Thursday Night Football game on NFL Network pits two of last seasons’ most impressive teams against each-other for a game that promises to have some serious running back action. Ronnie Brown is out for the Dolphins, but don’t think they won’t keep their attack rush-centric, they still have Ricky Williams (who has been awesome this year) as well as running QB Pat White. But I’m thinking this injury might make them more balanced. week in and week out, the Dolphins run more than they pass, and that’s probably the right thing to do (John Fox, pay attention you dope), but Chad Henne has shown me he can throw the ball all over the field. Against a Panther team that is probably getting ready to see the Dolphins carry the ball 40 times, Henne might just be able to hurt them with his arm.

The Dolphins are set up well to hold the Panthers out of the end zone. They give up big passing plays, but are stout against the run, and have made big plays on defense when quarterbacks get fidgety with the ball. Jake Delhomme loves to play around with the pig skin. Both teams have won 4 of their last 6, but Carolina has been beaten in every game they’ve been out-rushed in. I like Miami’s D to allow that to happen.

If the Panthers came out and ran the ball 40 times, I would give them the cover here, but John Fox has repeatedly tried to break defenses at their weakest point, managed to ignore his own running game for long portions of winnable games, and generally has a dumb look on his face the entire time. I think Miami’s the better team, this game should be close, 3.5 points is good enough for me!

Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys Football Pick

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Washington Redskins (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys Football Pick: Wow, you know a line is off when 53% of the public is taking everyone’s most disappointing team of the season to cover against the Dallas Cowboys – America’s team – winners of 4 of their last 5 including big Ws over Philadelphia and Atlanta. Right? I wasn’t sure where this line would go when I picked it up earlier in the week, but I sure saw a lot of value in the Washington Redskins, and that’s not something I catch myself seeing too often.

Despite all the Redskins’ failures, they’ve played in their fair share of close games this season. Sure, everyone has thrown someone in Redskin garb under the bus at some point this season, and nobody has more tire marks, foot prints, and ripped threads than head coach, Jim Zorn, but the Skins haven’t been as terrible as many think. They’ve lost by more than 10 points once all year. Once. And they haven’t played a tomato-can exclusive schedule (the Giants, Panthers, Eagles, Falcons, and Broncos are all on there), and only the Falcons beat the Skins by more than 10. Besides the Eagles and Falcons, nobody else has beaten Washington by double digits.

Six times so far this season, the Redskins have allowed 20 points or less, and the offense hasn’t done the defense any favors. Just imagine how good the Redskins D really is considering how much they have to be on the field. With the Cowboys line dinged up and Dallas coming off a stinker, I like this game to stay with-in double digits.