Fantasy Focus: NFL Fantasy Football Week 14 Projections

Well, the fantasy playoffs are here, and never is there a time more important to get the rankings right. I’ve had a solid run with my starts and such, but I haven’t been winning too many of these in-house contests of late. I’m looking to turn that around, and I’ve used a lot of match-up advantage, high touch situations for my rankings and picks this week. Here’s the fantasy focus for Week 14’s NFL Action.

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Drew Brees – Drew should have a great day against Atlanta’s suspect pass defense.
2. Ray Rice – Ray and the Ravens really struggled last week, but that’s why I love him to have a big week.
3. Sidney Rice – I think Favre goes back to the guy he’s most comfortable with after a tough week.
4. Ben Roethlisberger – Ben threw for 400+ yards last time they Steelers saw the Browns… again?
5. Chris Johnson – Until he does something other than score easy fantasy points, I’ll try to keep him here.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Terrell Owens – People might lay off him after a down week, but everyone struggles against Revis.
2. Mike Sims-Walker – 5 of his 6 home games have been double digit fantasy production.
3. Thomas Jones – I think the Jets will run 45 times this week – Thomas will get about 25 of those.
4. Ricky Williams –The Jaguars are up and down, against the Dolphins rushing attack, I think down.
5. Percy Harvin –What can I say, I think the Vikigns throw more than they pass against Cincinnati.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –He’s still the best back in Seattle, and despite getting 1/3 the touches, he produced last week.
2. Michael Crabtree – Could be a big week for Crabtree, he’s been getting the targets, he’ll cash in soon.
3. Vince Young– He’s rated as the 25th QB in ESPN this week, I think he cuts that in half. At least.
4. Jamal Charles– He draws Buffalo this week, and he’s been solid, good combo start there.
5. Daunte Culpepper– The Ravens secondary isn’t awesome, and I’ll take a chance that Duante can still wing it with the best of them – go deep Calvin!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Matt Forte– Bad match-up against the Pack, in Week 1, the Pack weren’t quite figured out yet, and they still held Forte to 55 yards on 25 carries.
2. Steve Smith– Matt Moore isn’t better than Jake Delhomme, I can’t believe it. Sit him against the Pats.
3. Frank Gore – It’s going to kill me, but Mike Singletary’s offense has no identity – Gore gets no looks.
4. Eli Manning –I think Eli will struggle against the Eagles, every since Plax went bang, he’s struggled.
5. T.J. Houshmanzadeh– The Hawks need to throw this guy the ball, but they don’t do things right…

***You’re taking a chance on DeSean Jackson, Michael Turner, and DeAngelo Williams, but from what I hear, the first and the last are very likely, and Turner might practice Thursday. ***

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Fantasy Focus: Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings

Alright, it’s getting a little terrible. Josh has won 2 weeks in a row, and I received his fantasy rankings this week entitled, “The Three-peat Rankings” – Puke. Not only did I get dominated last week, I set an all time low for fantasy rankings on my own site, pulling home 4th in every single category. Heartache, pain, suffering – none of that, don’t worry – I’m just downright pissed off at my inability to see the entire board lately. But I’m destined to get back to my winning ways, so why not start this week? You’ve got to believe in your stuff, and confidence has never been an issue for me. Let the games begin! It’s about time someone else started winning Arse. If you three-peat, I’ll send you a present to the darkness!

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew– The Bills allow more yards and touchdowns to running backs than any other team in the NFL. Yep.
2. Chris Johnson – I do actually think the Texans D will play better this time around, but so what, CJ will still do work.
3. Adrian Peterson – Big Backs kill Hawks – it’s very similarly proven to E=MC2.
4. Peyton Manning – I can’t see a better QB option this week, the Ravens secondary should prepare for the worst.
5. Ray Rice– If the Ravens want to beat the Colts for the first time in 7 games, they better feed it to Ray.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Steve Smith (NYG) – The Giants SS is good to go this week, the Falcons secondary is porous.
2. Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall > Kansas City Chiefs.
3. DeSean Jackson – I’m loving DeSean against the Bears secondary. That kind of speed should torch them.
4. Ricky Williams –Ricky moves up from sleeper status because of Ronnie’s injury. I’d be starting him if I had him.
5. Sidney Rice –Tough to go against Rice right now, especially with Seattle in town.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett – I don’t care if the Hawks are headed up against Minnesota, this kid can find yards if he gets carries.
2. Beanie Wells – Last week I called his best week of the season, I’m going for 2 in a row.
3. Jeremy Maclin –The Bears will see a lot of passes this Sunday Night, Maclin, like Jackson, has that painful speed.
4. LeSean McCoy– McCoy has a good match-up against the Bears, a defensive front that isn’t as scary as they insist.
5. Fred Jackson– It’s a deep trick shot, for sure, but Fred should see his highest touch numbers since Lynch returned.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– He burned me in the 4th quarter last week, but I think I’m right this time.
2. Derrick Mason– The Pats killed the Colts secondary, but I think the Ravens run too much this week.
3. Jay Cutler – He has the talent to bust out any week, but the Eagles will feast on his mistakes if he plays like Jay Cutler.
4. Roy Williams – The Cowboys won’t have time to mess with the whole #1 receiver game, the Skins have a tough secondary.
5. Matthew Stafford– Don’t start a bad player because of a supposed good match-up, plus the Browns D is better than you think.

***No more Bye weeks, but don’t get caught starting old man Clinton Portis or older man Brian Westbrook – both are definitely out this week, and there’s other’s too! Mind the Doctor!!!

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Week 11 Fantasy Rankings

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Sunday Observations: Week 6 NFL Football

My buddy Josh had this great idea, take some of our best comments to each other from Sunday’s action, the group’s best and worst textual masterpieces, and put them together in one article for all to see. Sometimes our day-time observations can be priceless, other times hilarious, and every once in a while even useful. You need to know, I have Sunday ticket, Josh is braving the darkness of Alaska and whichever games they show up there, Papa never leaves his dungeon, and Red Red Ryan couldn’t take part in this week’s texting session because his red hair (and female partner) wouldn’t allow him to do so. The bottom line is, we all watch football in different places, so we keep our texting handy to pretend we’re watching the games together. So, Red was out this week but still, Papa, Josh, and I sent texts to and fro. Here’s the Top 15, compiled by yours truly…

Josh Arsenault

1. Percy Harvin is a speed guy that loves to hit people… Watch him block from the slot and it’s easy to see why the Vikings love him.

2. Ray Rice’s game reminds me of MJD…. He and Flacco have a chance to be special for a long time.

3. John Fox makes coaching look hard… Here’s a tip, Foxy: D-Will, D-Will, J-Stew, D-Will, J-Stew, J-Stew, D-Will… Somebody get this guy a Tecmo Bowl playbook.

4. There is nobody in the NFL I enjoy watching lose more than Jay Cutler… Except maybe Al Davis… Here’s hoping Culter winds up with the Raiders at some point.

5. No team is more bi-polar than the Seattle Seahawks… Their two wins were shutouts (28-0 and 41-0) and their four losses have been by an average margin of 15 points. Which one will it be coming off their bye?

Lucky Lester

1. Rummaging through the games I think I’ve watched five offensive plays by the Bills, and I’m pretty damn sure Terrell Owens has three drops. If the average team has 60 offensive plays, TO is on pace to drop 36 balls based on my numbers – that has to be a record.

2. Joshua Cribbs is unreal, but unless he returns 5 kickoffs and punts for touchdowns, the Browns aren’t going to have a chance to win this game.

3. How do nine football games manage to all be on commercial at the same time, and not one has reached half time? On the bright side, the Tampa game is showing their cheerleaders, and I’m pretty sure they are only wearing jerseys – there might be black panties under there, but I’m not sure.

4. The Jaguars must really stink, because Maurice Jones Drew is really freaking good and they still suck.

5. I hate watching Jake Delhomme, he’s like a Ben Stiller movie, I feel embarrassed for the guy. He tries so hard but he just keeps zipping his junk up in his zipper. The guy can dig himself a hole with the best of them.

Papa Weimer

1. I hope Jim Zorn realizes that it’s not the quarterback, it’s him. Jason Campbell is better than Todd Collins, that’s why he’s started over the past 2 seasons. It’s the play calling, the dead end coaching spot, and the general broke down feeling of the Skins franchise.

2. I feel bad for Todd Haley, his offense plays like the last 3 eight grade teams I coached. They jump off-sides like it’s their job, they miss assignments all day long, and they do just enough to give you a glimmer of hope before they rip it away with a holding penalty and two jumps off-sides on back2back2back plays.

3. If you got paid a million dollars to get knocked out, and you got to pick one guy to make sure the job got done right, which player in the league would you choose to rock your world? I got Ray Lewis. (Josh replies, Brian Dawkins) (Lucky replies, Aaron Curry)

4. Hahahaha… The Rams are going to win, the Rams are going to win! Leonard Little, pick 6, the worst team in the league won’t tie the Lions for the worst record ever!

5. The Rams lose. Figures. If the Rams and Bucs gave all their best players to fight for a singular cause, they’d still get beat 12 times a year.

Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Football Analysis Week 5

Week 4 was historic, it was the first week that I didn’t finish first in overall fantasy rankings, a little competition we have here at LuckyLester.com. For those of you that don’t know, the staff gets together their fantasy rankings for the week, and in the Fantasy Focus review everybody gets graded based on their picks. I won the first 3 weeks before getting ousted by my chubby and generally crazy uncle. I haven’t heard the end of it since he knew he took home the gold. But hey, I still finished tied for “next” with Red Red Ryan, yet another guy that keeps telling me he’s just as good as me. It’s a tough crowd, you fall a step back one week and now you’re not the best. We’ll see… This week we have four more teams on bye, Bears, Packers, Saints, Chargers – so don’t get caught with any of those circus-squads in your starting lineup. Dream big in Week 5, almost 1/3 of the way through the fantasy season. Craziness…

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – Come on, free money, against the Titans D, he should be even better than normal.
2. Adrian Peterson – I liked him last week against the Packers, and while he didn’t do well, I won’t hesitate against STL.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – This cat is physical, ask Frank Gore what physical runners do to Seattle…
4. Matt Schaub – The Cardinals are really good against the run, good enough to score a lot, thus Matt will have a day.
5. Reggie Wayne – I can’t get enough of Reggie, he’s such a sure thing, and I expect him to do bad things to Tennessee.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Julius Jones– Julius and the Hawks were brutal last week, but against Jax’s defense, I like his upside.
2. Santana Moss – If Carolina knows what’s good for them, they’ll stack the line. That should open a few up for Moss.
3. Tim Hightower– I’d say Tim was picked in the low rounds, but he’s not full sleeper. Against Houston he could score twice.
4. Carson Palmer – I like Carson again, even against a good Ravens D – there’s room to pass in that secondary.
5. Hines Ward –Hines, like Carson, finds himself on this list for the 2nd straight week. He didn’t let me down last time.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Tashard Choice – He might be a back-up again, but if Dallas is up early, why waste Marion? They won’t, Choice gets 20 totes.
2. Jerome Harrison – I’ve always loved his vision; thought he’d do big things with lots of carries; he’ll get them again this week.
3. Mohamed Massaquoi –He’s the #1 in Cleveland now, and Derek Anderson likes him. A good play this week.
4. Steve Breaston– You can probably pick up breast in most leagues; he could be huge against Houston.
5. Eddie Royal – I have to go to this well one more week, he’s as talented as little guys come, could be huge!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Ray Rice – I would sit Rice this week, I think Cincinnati really shuts him down in Week 5.
2. Steven Jackson – Minnesota, ick. I’d rather start Mendenhall, Hightower, or Julius Jones.
3. Matt Ryan – I’d look for a better option than San Francisco’s solid defense coming off two weeks of prep.
4. Roddy White –If I don’t like Matty Ice, I really don’t like Roddy going against Nate Clements all day long.
5. Larry Johnson – Get ready for less than 3 yards per rush against Dallas.

PS – Bye weeks are back, and here for some time, recognize! Mind the gap!

Week 5 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

Ryan Kauffman	        Josh Arsenault		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning   	1.Peyton Manning	1.Matt Schaub   	1.Peyton Manning
2.Kurt Warner   	2.Tom Brady     	2.Kurt Warner     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Ben Roethlisberger 	3.Donovan McNabb     	3.Tony Romo     	3.Donovan McNabb
4.Joe Flacco     	4.Matt Schaub     	4.Peyton Manning 	4.Carson Palmer
5.Tom Brady     	5.David Garrard    	5.Donovan McNabb	5.Kurt Warner
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson
2.Chris Johnson 	2.Brandon Jacobs  	2.Rashard Mendenhall  	2.Maurice Jones-Drew
3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.DeAngelo Williams  	3.Chris Johnson 	3.Brandon Jacobs
4.DeAngelo Williams	4.Clinton Portis    	4.Brian Westbrook 	4.Rashard Mendenhall
5.Brandon Jacobs 	5.Rashard Mendenhall   	5.Glen Coffee   	5.Tim Hightower

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Reggie Wayne	        1.Reggie Wayne          1.T.J. Housmandzadeh 	1.Reggie Wayne
2.Andre Johnson 	2.Andre Johnson   	2.Reggie Wayne		2.DeSean Jackson
3.Larry Fitzgerald  	3.Anquan Boldin 	3.Larry Fitzgerald   	3.Anquan Boldin
4.Derrick Mason    	4.Brandon Marshall 	4.Andre Johnson 	4.Chad Ochocinco
5.Hines Ward    	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Mike Sims-Walker	5.Andre Johnson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Jason Witten		2.Tony Gonzalez 	2.Chris Cooley
3.Chris Cooley		3.Tony Gonzalez		3.Vernon Davis  	3.Owen Daniels
4.John Carlson   	4.Brent Celek   	4.Chris Cooley		4.Tony Gonzalez
5.Vernon Davis  	5.Vernon Davis   	5.Dustin Keller 	5.Jason Witten

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Vikings		1.Vikings		1.Giants		1.Giants
2.Steelers		2.Giants        	2.Vikings		2.Vikings
3.Giants 		3.Eagles 		3.Eagles		3.Jets
4.Jets   		4.Cowboys  		4.Ravens		4.Eagles
5.Patriots		5.Jets  		5.Steelers		5.Steelers

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Laces out, just like our kickers, out of the rankings! When the toe kick returns, we're back in!

Ten for Tuesday: Week 2

Yeah, Week 1 is officially in the books and I’ve got 10 big ones for Tuesday’s column. Some surprised, some disappointed, and then their were guys that had my jaw dropping – both good and bad. Read up and see who else I liked besides the stellar rookie wideout in Denver, Eddie Royal.

  1. Thomas Brady: I’m not sure if his name is Thomas, but it sounded more formal. Now that he’s done for the year and the Patriots Championship dreams are crushed, I figure using the more somber title is more appropriate. Give your head a shake!!! Tom may be down and out, but the Patriots chances to win are still solid, just like yours. That’s right, just because of one injury it doesn’t mean that you’re down and out. First of all, the Patriots still have one of the best teams in the league, and now they’ll just have to do it with Matt instead of Tom. Trading the best quarterback in the league for a career back-up (yes, even in college Matt was a back-up) isn’t the best deal in the world, but there’s ways to win football games just like there’s ways for you to win at fantasy. Here are some guys that will manage as the season moves forward. Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Jason Campbell, and Tarvaris Jackson (that’s right, they’ll all be decent). Some guys that could be great: Jake Delhomme and Matt Cassel. Matt still has two great receivers and an offense that is genius in what they do. Jake will get Steve Smith back and be even better than he was in Week 1. Don’t lose your marbles because you spent a 1st round pick on a guy that played half a quarter – that dream is dead, move forward, make it work and it will be just that much more refreshing.
  2. Eddie Royal is a Best!: No receiver looked quicker this weekend than Eddie Royal did. Not only did he look awesome, but he should have had another touchdown, but he lined up a foot too far back and some ref decided to be a stickler. So what. This kid is no one-day wonder, and he will do good things even as Brandon Marshall comes back. He’s a tireless worker and has the respect of everyone that means anything on that Bronco team. Don’t pass up the chance to get him if he’s still available.
  3. Chris Johnson: Told you. I’ve been saying it for a long time, and I figure now is the time where everyone believes me. Honestly, I’m not sure if he’ll do as well with Kerry Collins in, because now defenses don’t have to worry about Vince running, but he should still get more carries than LenDale White. Don’t trade the world for him, but if you can pick him up, or give some sad Brady owner a decent new starting quarterback to get him, I’d jump on it.
  4. And the Bush Growith: I missed on this prediction – that’s for sure. The Bucs had always held Bush to very little, but on Sunday Reggie showed us a little something. Hopefully that big performance and game winning touchdown gives the kid a little more confidence. I don’t know how a guy that gets to follow that Kim girl’s butt around can lack so much confidence, but he has rarely looked like a confident back. I’m not sure if this is a thing to come, but prior to the pre-season I was really high on Bush. I thought he’d score more touchdowns this season than any other year, and the way he was utilized on Sunday, I might have to go back to that prediction. Go Reggie! Go Kim!
  5. Mike Tuner for President: In just about every single draft I had I picked this guy. There were a lot of reasons for that, but 220 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 touches wasn’t one of them. That’s right, even my lofty expectations weren’t that high. And now, now that I’ve seen what Turner can do in that new offensive scheme in Atlanta, I think he has a chance in 2008 to take the presidency. You won’t be able to get him – probably, but if you Steven Jackson owners know what’s good for you, you’ll try to trick an unsuspecting Turner owner into a great “value” trade. You Turner owners should ignore that stupid term and worse idea – but not everyone reads this article (unfortunately) so do what you can do.
  6. Seattle’s Raining Receivers: They are coming down like cats and dogs. First Branch at the end of last season. Then Engram. Now Burleson. Nate had a lot of upside coming in, and many fantasy owners, such as myself, were expecting big things from the talented wideout. So sad, so sorry, so long for that idea. Nate is out for the year. But this is the time to go get Deion Branch and maybe Engram too. You can probably stash them on your IR, if your league has one, and even then, it’s likely that both receivers have more value than some #5 and #6 receivers you have right now. They might play as early as Week 3, and probably by the Hawks 4th game of the season. Do work early and be happy later.
  7. Dallas Does Debbie – err, Cleveland: Okay, feel free to look back at my Five for Friday article to properly appreciate this prediction. The Cowboys looked brilliant where the Browns looked like, well, like everyone expected the Browns to be last season before they turned everything around. You know what, here’s a quote from my article on Friday, “The Cowboys are going to do what the Colts did to the Saints to start the ‘07 season, and many a people are going to be seen ripping out their hair because they put all their chips in the Brown doo-doo. Nobody likes brown doo-doo. But when this does happen, feel free to take advantage of those hair-rippers. Unlike you, most fantasy fans erupt prematurely like the apple pie kid. Week 1 and 2 are times where calm people build season-long dynasties.” There – now if you didn’t read that, then at least you get the gist of what’s important now (also known as W.I.N).
  8. Duddly Do Rights: The Eagles did everything right against the Rams. Defensively, but especially offensively, there was no team more wide open and efficient in what they did than Philly. The Eagles are known for their ability to lay an egg or two, from time to time, but they sure kicked the season off with a full-blown shellacking. Atlanta looked glorious against the Lions. It wasn’t only Mike Turner – it was everyone in Atlanta’s offense. Matt Ryan looks like the read deal, one of the best quarterback prospects in a while, Jerious Norwood looked good too, and so did that receiving corps. In the chances they got, this team flourished all over. You have to love that for a Falcons group that has gone through some turmoil in the recent past. Denver did work, too. Their best receiver might not have been the guy that had to sit this game out after all. Okay, too fast? Maybe. But Eddie Royal is the sure-thing #2 for a reason. He’ll be special when his career is over. And Jay Cutler is going to be a great one. Not a good one. Not a pro-bowler. He’s going to be an MVP type hall-of-famer by the time his career is over. Denver did a lot of good, and a lot of it was because of Jay.
  9. Duddly Do Wrongs: Cincinnati – to start with, everything. Carson looked bad, but the routes were shoddy, the defense was horrendous, and the offensive line had me thinking Carson was going to join Tom in an “out for the year” scenario. Marvin Lewis better get back to the drawing board before Bengals’ brass send it out in a box. Seattle – where or where have you gone? I know the receiving corps is depleted, but ask Donovan McNabb, is that any reason to leave your game in Seattle? The Hawks need to run the ball more and ask an injured Matt Hasselbeck to do less. The load rests on Julius Jones’ shoulders next week – I think he’ll step up. Houston – defensively, you are worrying me. You have solid linebackers, two great defensive linemen, and while that doesn’t mean your secondary is great, it does mean you shouldn’t give up 130+ yards to Willie Parker and crew. Show me something next week, but more importantly, don’t leave your game at home when you play on the road – that garbage is embarrassing. Still, Schaub is going to be good, and Andre Johnson will light up the airways with him.
  10. Trick Love the Kids: Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Ray Rice – There are other kids I like as well, but these three guys should run wild next week in their respective match-ups. Chris will torment a Bengals team that can’t tackle a slow 7th grader. Matt Forte will give the Panthers defense more yards than LT did last week, And Ray Rice will have more yards on less carries against the Texans. There it is, Ten for Tuesday. See you tomorrow!