Ten for Tuesday Week 10 Fantasy Football Review

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Yes, JaMarcus Russell is that bad. I don’t know what else there is to say. The guy keeps getting benched, but he keeps starting. It’s as if they watch half the game, figure out he has no chance to succeed with his work ethic and tunnel vision, only to forget that during practice the next week. Now, it has to be tough when the back-up comes in and manages a lower QB rating than your terrible starter, but Bruce Gradkowski managed to do it.  I can’t wait to see what happens next week on NFL-kind-of. Pretty soon there’s going to be defensive player side-bets picking the quarter and minute that Ja-Rus gets the hook….   Speaking of bad, hello Mr. Brady Quinn, come on down to the “at least we didn’t waste a #1 overall pick on your ace like the Raiders did with Ja-Rus” sweepstakes. Jeopardy’s going to have a section called, “worst 1st round quarterback class of all time” – there’s going to be one damn answer for all 5 questions if it keeps on keeping on….  Did you forget you were allowed to run the ball Cowboys, Seahawks, Eagles, Falcons, Broncos, and Bills? I don’t care, the games were close, and you needed to run it more. Some will give the Falcons a free-be here, they had their top two backs out midway through the 2nd quarter, but I don’t care, those were the Panthers you were playing. Dallas, really? Three good backs and you run fewer times than Warren Moon handed off for the freaking Oilers? Jim Mora, I hate you. Eagles, you know the story, stop it. Broncos, you were successful on the ground, the Redskins are #1 against the pass, I don’t care how you are. Bills, you suck at everything besides running. You have two good running backs, and two bad quarterbacks. I know, do a hurry-up. Clown noses on coaches make for bad game plans….

I haven’t heard much from the Jets Coach Ryan these days. Hard to be a loud-ass when you’re 4-5, I wonder how many interviews we’ll have of him talking about how they’re going to come in and beat up the Patriots this week? Right after that loss to the tough Jaguars? I’m guessing 0…..   Jay Culter, with your stupid pouty face and your arrant right arm, you are becoming my favorite player to watch. It’s between you and Ellie Manning right now (I hate watching Eli, but when he turns to Ellie – golden). I’m beginning to think you’re taking the crown away, 3 interceptions that were TERRIBLE throws? One on the last play of the game from 10 yards out, your receiver running toward the side line, you throw it to the safety in the middle – awesome!….. In a league full of freak athletes, amazing moves, and unbelievable speed, Chris Johnson, you are on another level. The way Chris makes everyone else look like they’re jogging is pure magic. I will watch Titan games just to see this kid run the ball. I used to think there were tons of good backs in the NFL, but the only two guys in CJ’s ballpark are Maurice Jones Drew and Adrian Peterson. Everyone thinks AP is running away with that title, but Chris might be at the top of my list…..

Jim Mora, do you have something to say for yourself? Two words buddy, Justin Forsett. And then one word you need to say, Sorry! How this kid hasn’t been a bigger part of your offense the last 10 weeks of the season is beyond me. He’s always been the best runner you have, he’s the best receiver out of the backfield you have, and his style is perfect for your offense, an offense that saw Warrick Dunn do work for years after people thought he was done. Even on Sunday, up 17-10 going into half, and the running back that is getting 7 yards per rush against one of the best run stuffing defenses in the NFL only gets 17 carries? At least Matt Hasselcrack threw 52 times, completing half his throws – that makes sense. I hate you, Jim, that’s twice in one article….. If Beanie Wells can stay healthy, and motivated, and Arizona commits to running the ball the kid is going to be special. Beanie has a mean stiff arm, he’s a big physical angry runner, and he’s faster than most backs in the league. Beanie has never been known for his hard work, but he looks like a beast right now…..   Bill Belichick, you have balls, big ones. Let me start by saying, my undercarriage couldn’t even think about going for it in that situation, and I wouldn’t ever do it unless I was coaching middle school football and the gong show that snapping the ball and punting is at that level. But when it comes right down to it, if you get two yards, you win the game. I would imagine that if you gave almost any team in the NFL that choice versus the Colts, “If you were playing the Colts, and had one chance at 2 yards to get the win, would you try for the W?” they would say, “yeah, shoot, sounds good to me.” Giving Peyton two minutes, two timeouts, needing 70 yards to score is about 50-50 anyway. Maybe 60-40 to the Pats advantage. But getting two yards wins you the game. My call? No, but the wrong call? I’m not going that far. Bill’s a pretty good coach, better than me, better than any of the guys that questioned him – I think I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt….

Buffalo, your 4th quarters are like a bad Ben Stiller movie. It makes my eyes sting to watch you piss it away. I’m embarrassed for you. I hurt for you. I don’t even like you and I feel sorry for you. You keep saying (doing) the wrong thing at every turn. You drop passes, offend each other, and basically practice bad humor to get people to watch you. It’s not working. Stop.

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 10

I’ve been doing my thing. I hope all you readers are digging my advice, I’m getting more emails than ever before, and having a pretty good time interacting with the LL.com supporters out there – keep ’em coming, papaweimer50@hotmail.com I can always dig some reader interaction. That being said, I can’t get everything right, all I can do is tell you what I think, give you the reasoning behind my opinion (as unpopular or crazy as it may seem, or turn out, for that matter), and take the good and the bad as it comes.

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Before I answer any questions, I’d like to let everyone know, never again will I draft a player that had their offensive coordinator fired just before the season… Never again will I eat a Taco Bell Black Jack Taco… Never will I ever even think about drafting a receiver getting balls thrown to him by any one of the following QB impostors, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Brady or Derek, JaMarcus, a rookie with a “big arm” (that one’s for you Mr. Stafford), or Kerry Collins… Never again will I expect great things out of a receiver in a new place (unless you’re Randy Moss-like and headed to Tom Brady’s neighborhood), or a receiver with a new coach, or a receiver with a new coach in a new place in a bad system, or Roy Williams… And last but not least, never again will I go watch football with my nephew, that Lucky little bastard switches around from game to game faster than my wife flicks through the damn channels when nothing’s on – that’s the only time in my life I wish I didn’t have every damn channel on TV. She goes so fast I can’t even see the naked breasts on skinamax…. NEVER AGAIN! Okay, vent complete, here’s the Q&A section!

Dave in Dakota says, “Papa, I hope the fantasy Gods have been smiling on you. I am hanging in there with my teams. Real quick, Which of these RBs should I try to pickup? (Betts,Bernard Scott,Forsett,Reggie Bush, or Kolby Smith?) These guys won’t start unless a good match up. Maybe a possible keeper in that bunch?”

The fantasy Gods have backed off the humility lesson the last few weeks, and I’m doing better. I would pick up Reggie Bush – he has been very explosive of late, and his surgery looks to be effecting him less and less –  then probably Kolby Smith (his upside is starter in KC where I don’t think anybody else has starter upside in that bunch. Next would be Justin Forsett (though that guy can’t buy touches, he’s always way more efficient than any other Hawk ball carrier but Mora hates his couch). And last Scott. I like Scott’s ability, he’s just a no-touch guy behind Benson (who has become a beast). Hope that helps!

Coach D in Minnesota asks, “Which WR Chambers or James Jones? What do you think of Bengals Def. vs the Packers Def?”

I would probably go with James Jones. I’ve always thought the guy was a starting WR in the league, and he’s making the most of his touches, I think he has 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games or so. Plus, with Nelson out, he’s become the sure #3 WR there, and they have many 3WR sets. But Chambers is a little intriguing. He just did nothing in the last couple years, so it’s hard for me to fully buy in to that performance.

I like the Bengals defense a lot, very opportunistic and stout up front. The Packers are okay, but not great by any means. You can’t trust them to play well any week.

Stan in San Fran writes, “All right, Papabear… here is the scenario: I have been offered Ronnie Brown and Buchalter in exchange for Forte and Westbrook. My other backs are Thomas Jones, Felix Jones and Ladell Betts. Brown and Jones would provide me with a solid RB foundation and their schedules are favorable; plus, both offenses are run oriented. I am, “on paper”, giving up a lot, but, that is only if Forte and Westbrook were performing at projected levels. Your thoughts?”

Papabear? Haha – I don’t even know how to respond to that. I guess I’ll just answer the question and eat all the honey later. I think your offer could be good for you, but Ronnie Brown isn’t always used as he should be, in fact, rarely does he get 20+ carries – then again, neither Forte or Westbrook look like awesome choices going forward either, and I would definitely rather have Brown than either of those two guys. Yeah, I’d go with the Ronnie Brown side of that trade – at the very least you know he’s going to get his carries and they do have a relatively easy schedule moving forward while Forte’s is tough.

Stan also writes, “In addition, and if the trade doesn’t go through, do I start Jones and Forte this week or do I insert Betts with a more favorable matchup than Forte (plus the short week and travel).”

I think I would start Forte and Jones or Betts – Jones just isn’t consistent enough for me, and at the very least I think Forte could catch 5 o 6 balls this week. Betts goes up against a tough Denver defense, but Clinton’s back-up will be getting starter carries, and he’s good at catching the ball out of the back-field as well. It’s a toss up to me, between Jones and Betts, but I think I might go with Betts.

Super Man Canada asks, “I need a look in your crystal ball. What do you see for Ronnie Brown? Ronnie Brown’s numbers have been down lately, do you think defenses are getting the best of the Wildcat, starting to figure it out a bit? My man is slipping.”

I don’t think it’s that, I think it’s that they’ve played the Saints, Jets, and Patriots in 3 straight weeks and Brown hasn’t approached 20 carries in any of those games. Prior to that he had 18 or more carries in 4 straight games, and that’s when he rushed for nearly 400 yards and 6 touchdowns. Who knows, the crystal ball has no guarantees, but Brown looks like one of the better bets moving forward – you know the Dolphins are going to run it, they’re at their best with the ball in Ronnie’s hands, and they play a pretty easy run schedule going forward. Plus, lots of smart people thought Ronnie would have a great year, can’t go against my gut when I’m half way through being right!

The Planless Man asks, “I have been offered Romo, Evans and Maroney for Boldin, Schaub, and Greene. What do you think? I know what I am thinking, but I want to see if you are thinking along the same lines as me. Thanks!”

Not for me. Schaub is better than Romo (though i like both), Boldin is way better than Evans, and while you gain a little with Maroney, I doubt he’ll be a player that is a difference maker for you. So you lose. Unless you’re starting Maroney as one of your Top running backs, you have to steer clear of this deal, a small upgrade at your #3 RB isn’t worth losses at your starting WR and QB spots. Plus, the DECLINE button is awesome to click!

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16) Free Football Pick: The last time these two played the line was (-10) in Detroit, and it was actually pretty close to a Lions cover. This time it’s (-16) and it’s not like people think of either of these teams any differently. They still think the Vikings are legit and they know the Lions smell like… Sour beans. So, I would say this line is inflated a couple points – it should probably be 13.5, maybe, at the very most 14 – but it’s on the move and already up to 17 at a couple books. But I’m not scared.

Okay, I’m a little scared – I don’t like taking anybody at -16. This is pro football and if you’re ever a 16 point dog you are probably a good value bet. But even good value bets lose. And the way Matthew Stafford has been playing, and the way Minnesota just got two weeks to heal up and prepare for a Lions team that just pissed away a 17 point lead against the Seahawks a week ago, I just have to go against value and stick with Adrian Peterson and company.

Only 3 of the Lions 7 losses are by 16 points or more. They lost by 18 to New Orelans in Week 1. They were tied at 21 with the Bears in Chicago at half time, but they were outscored 27-3 in the second half and lost by 24. And they got shut out by the Packers 26-0. Last time around, Minnesota fought back after being down 10-7 at half time to win by two touchdowns and cover the 10 point spread.

The Lions have been double digit underdogs five times this year (which is amazing all by itself) and in those five games, they’ve lost against the spread four times (which is even more amazing. As double digit favorites this year, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS.

So, all things considered, all values ignored, I’ll put a little on the Vikings expecting more problems from Detroit.

Fantasy Focus: Week 9 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

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The Fantasy Title stayed in house last week, Papa took the top spot but I finished way down at the bottom, and we all know there’s no room for that moving forward. There are some pretty stark differences in our rankings this week, so check them out and see if you can’t find something good to grab at. First thing’s first, you won’t find Jake Delhomme in anybody’s Top 5 – as for the rest, check it out below!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – He obviously needs to touch the ball more, KC wishes he wouldn’t.
2. Tom Brady – The Dolphins have a solid front 7, but Tom will be picking on that back four…
3. Larry Fitzgerald – WRs are often tough to predict, but hard not to see Fitz having a big day against the Bears.
4. Reggie Wayne– His awesome routes and great hands, Peyton’s elite accuracy, Reg is basically unstoppable.
5. Pierre Thomas– PT wasn’t a high draft pick, but the guy is a flat out stud and should have a big day against Carolina.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Matt Hasselbeck – Had surprisingly good numbers last week for how bad the Hawks played. Enter Detroit….
2. Steve Smith (NYG) – Has lost some of that early season luster, but I bet he’s back in action against San Diego.
3. Ryan Grant – Grant should have a big time day against the Bucs, but you’re relying on the Packers actually running the ball.
4. Mike Sims-Walker – After a disappointing Week 8 against a shady pass defense, I think Mike steps back up in Week 9.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw –I like Bradshaw’s chances for big plays against San Diego’s porous defense.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – It’s killing me in a couple leagues, but Nate is a better play than T.J. Housh…
2. Julius Jones – He’s not consistent, but he’s the best option the Hawks have, and they will run on Detroit.
3. Steve Breaston – Boobs should be a great play against the Bears, I think Boldin might sit this one out.
4. Alex Smith – Risky? Maybe, but Alex should have some room to throw against the Titans secondary.
5. Jamal Charles – Here come the Jaguars and their run defense, Charles finally gets his shot with LJ out.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. LaDainian Tomlinson– I think Sproles will get a little more play in this one, the Giants should be tough on LT.
2. Antonio Bryant– Rookie quarterback, tough corners that play physical, bad day for Bryant.
3. Roy Williams – Still the number one receiver? Not on my fantasy team, that’s for sure.
4. Steve Smith (CAR)– Saints are smart enough to role all coverage to Steve, he should struggle for fantasy points in NO.
5. Matt Forte– Oh Matt, how do you like Jay Cutler now? Arizona’s run D is tough sledding.

***Another Big Bye in Week 9: don’t play Bills, Browns, Raiders (not that you would), Rams, Vikings, or Jets! Mind the mighty Gap!!!

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Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

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Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: Lots of stuff has me thinking this is a great bet. There’s the Flu that’s going around Cleveland like flies swarm cow poo, there’s the fact that Cleveland’s quarterback has a 44% completion rate on the season, or that Green Bay has played much better defensively over the past three games – many, many things say Packers. But 81% of the public likes this bet, and that’s a red flag if I’ve ever seen one. One thing Cleveland does better than Green Bay is control the ball, their time of possession is solid despite the inability to complete passes and being prone to turnovers. Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6 Fantasy Football Advice

It’s been a pretty busy week for me in fantasy football with answering questions for week 6. No doubt the listing of my email address last week (papaweimer50@hotmail.com) was just the trick I needed to be in here hunting and pecking for the right words to answer questions. I’ve listed some late questions and answers from last week’s stuff below, I also have some relevant questions for this weeks fantasy football action. If you have questions, ask them. If I get enough by later in the week, I’ll post my questions and answers again in Ask Papa Weimer Week 6, section b or 2 or something of the sort. Stop trying to confuse me. I’m witty folks, unflappable like Tiger and Larry Bird and Michael Jordan put into one chubby old white dude. I call it how I see it!

Last Week’s Late Questions:

Michael from Denmark wrote in, “I play in a points league, that also awards receptions. I’m pretty well set in most positions, but have big doubts as to who I should start in the flex position. My options are Tashard Choice, Rickie Williams and Roddy White. I like Choice’s matchup against the Chiefs, but with Barber recovering, I fear a dip in his workload. Rickie Williams is playing well, and with Pennington out, he could see enough of the ball to produce good numbers, but I don’t particularly like the Jets matchup. Roddy has been rusty, but as my top draft pick at WR, I feel that I shouldn’t abandon him completely, and I’m confident he will start to produce at some point, I’m just not sure it will be against a strong 49’ers D.”

Michael, thanks for the email. I am pretty sure I would roll with Tashard Choice. He plays against the worst rushing defense in the league, or at least one of them, and while Barber is expected to play, he’s not going to be fully healthy and the Cowboys didn’t want to make him carry the ball every time even when he was fully healthy. Choice is a very good runner that explodes through the line, and he has a very good chance to get a lot of carries for the Cowboys, especially if they get up early against the Chiefs. I wouldn’t start Ricky just because he’s going against the Jets. New York is great against the run, and they certainly won’t be too worried about Chad Henne beating them all day. Roddy is a great player, but until I’m convinced they are going to try and get him the ball, I’m going to stay away from him against great defenses. He’s a beast, always a threat to make a big play, but Nate Clements is one of the best defensive backs in the league, and thus I expect him to give Roddy a tough time all day long. In a better match-up, I would definitely give Roddy a shot. All’s not lost with him, but hopefully the Falcons will start taking chances with their best receiver… I think the match-up insists that Dallas could be up early and up big, and if that’s the case, why would they waste Marion and risk getting him hurt just for mop up duty in the 2nd half? That will be choice’s job, a job he’ll do very well, and he rates out highly as a flex option for me this week. (now of course Roddy White blows up, and Ricky did work too, luckily for me Teshard was plenty for Michael to win his league, even though he started Sims-Walker: he was luckier than me in that regard!)

BSimmons wrote in, “I have a question on which WR to start. Donald Driver is out for me this week and I have Nate Burleson, Donnie Avery and Braylon Edwards with his new team.. Who should I start?? Thanks in advance!”

I think your starter is Nate Burleson, and by a long shot. I’d either wait for Edwards to prove himself in New York, or sell him to someone who loves him in New York. It’s hard to join a team in Week 5 and be a plus player the rest of the year. Chris Chambers wasn’t very good for San Diego a few years back, and Roy Williams did nothing in Dallas last season. I don’t know of a situation where a mid season trade at receiver went well for that receiver’s fantasy stats. Avery is a nice talent, but he’s still battling a hamstring injury, and his QB situation is brutal at best. I’d leave him on your bench until he proves that he’s completely healthy. Nate has a great match-up against a porous secondary, and he gets nearly 10 targets a game or something like that. I like him as a start this week. Hope that helps! (all of these guys had nice weeks, but I found the top gun of the three, as Nasty Nate finished with 10 more points than either Donnie or Braylon – that being said, Braylon really impressed me for the Jets, he could be a solid play the rest of the season. I wonder if he eats into Jericho’s numbers?)

Stuck in a Trailer writes, “I’m stuck in a trailer in Colorado. I figured my best bet was to ask you my fantasy question this week.  Do I really sit Steve Smith (NYG),  my other receivers are Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Sims-walker.  A lot of people seem to think these guys are the better choice this week.  What’s your thought? Thanks!”

Has the snow begun or what? Jammed up in a trailer, I can see sitting Steve Smith. Anquan Boldin has a great match-up against the Houston Texans secondary, Larry Fitz should get lots of attention, and you know Kurt and company will be throwing the ball. Calvin Johnson plays against a Steelers secondary that has been brutal against the pass this season. And Mike Sims-Walker goes against the Seahawks, minus their only stud corner (Trufant) and in a huge rut the last three weeks. Steve has a tough match-up with Nnamdi but you’re right, it’d be tough for me to sit him after all he’s done. I’m not sure he’s the type of receiver that Oakland will try to take away with their top corner, but there’s a chance. If I were going to sit one guy and play Smith, I would sit Calvin Johnson, if only because if I was Pittsburgh I would just try to blitz the snot out of Culpepper with double coverage on Calvin. So yes, I would probably end sitting Steve Smith, but it’s a coin flip with Calvin. Steve has the tougher match-up, and is playing against a bad Oakland team so Eli won’t be throwing as much. Hope this helps! (who knew Calvin would get hurt immediately and Mike Sims-Walker would not even get to play because he broke a curfew or something – sorry man, hope the Trailor is warming up! – At least I helped him out properly with this next one…

” Stuck in a Trailer tries me again, “Thanks for the Quick reply.  I just might sit Steve this week and hope it proves to be one of those decisions I can brag about.  Your input was helpful in my decision making so I thought I might get your take on one more conundrum.  DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis or Reshard Mendenhall. Can only pick two and so far I think I have switched them around about nine times. No snow as of yet, but between awaiting your responses I’m stocking the wood shed.”

This Week’s Early Questions:

David in Minnesota sent a fearsome foursome of questions my way, “Maclin or Manningham who will be better in the long run? Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Ward, or Fred Jackson which of these would you keep and why? What about giving up Manningham for Sims-Walker, would you make that deal? How would you rank the following and why: Royal,Collie, Nicks Hakeem, and Crabtree.I am looking for a bye week replacement and a potential WR to take over for TO if he and Edwards don’t get their act together. Thanks for all your help!

Anytime David – Here are your answers in order of the questions… Career-wise, Maclin, he’s a special dynamic – and this season, it’s a tough one. It depends on what you’re going for. Owning an eagle receiver is a scary gig. How many games will DeSean Jackson have 1 catch for 0 yards? I think Manningham is going to be good for 4-5 catches a week, a touchdown 6 or 7 times, and a decent flex or back-up receiver start. I think Maclin could have a couple no-shows, like Jackson this week, but that’s because the Eagles roll that way. It’s tough, surely, but I think Maclin has a better chance to have a huge week while Manningham has a better chance to be decent week in and week out. But, with the Eagles you really never know. If you want consistency, Manningham is probably your best bet. If you want a shot at big points, Maclin is your lottery ticket. Hope that helps David, that’s the best I can do.

Boy, tough call on those running backs; And it would depend on who your other running backs are. If you’re looking for a guy that might not do anything, but if his starter gets hurt he’ll be a Top 10 back, stick with Chester Taylor. Fred Jackson is another guy like that, but he should probably continue to get fantasy numbers, so keeping him around might be easier, but his upside isn’t as high as Chester’s. Derrick Ward has lost a lot of value with the emergence of Caddy and his health, and the demergence of the Bucs wanting to win this season. Jamal Lewis looks like he’ll get all the carries if he’s healthy, and that offensive line is tough, but I just don’t see the offense in Cleveland being worth while this year, that passing game is quite pukeish. Still, of all the guys you listed, I think Jamal is the surest thing for carries on a weekly basis. He has some tough match-ups, but if you’re looking for a guy to start week in and week out, Lewis might be your answer. Again, not a sure thing answer here, but hope that helps.

As for the WR switch, I would much rather have Sims-Walker….
And finally, I’d take Royal #1 because he is the best receiver you’ve listed, and he’s not a rookie. Hakeem Nicks and Collie are tied, in my mind, they will both be contending with other receivers all year long, and while Collie has been more productive, he’ll lose touches in two weeks when Gonzo returns from injury while Nicks might gain touches as he gets more comfortable with the NFL and Giants’ offense. I like Crabtree a lot, but he’s been out of football for quite some time, remember, he spent much of his off season getting healthy and staying off his foot. His talent is immense, no doubt, but it’s a long shot that he’s a top talent this season, so I’d rate him last out of that bunch, for this season.

Week 5 NFL Free Picks

I had some tough luck last week, and I picked a lot of big underdogs that got pushed around by the actual big dogs. Apparently it’s good bye to the days where double digit dogs just covered and made life tough on all those people that think NFL teams usually kill each other. Maybe. We’ll see. I’m not changing my whole approach based on a couple weeks of tough records, I still only dropped two games last week, and just as easily could have been 8-6 with a little better luck here and there. Week 5 promises to be intriguing, with new trades taking place, top notch surprises meeting top notch expectations, and some teams that are struggling and fighting for their lives way too early in the season. I pick ’em all, follow along and enjoy!

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Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Baltimore Ravens:I think the Ravens and Bengals are eerily similar as far as team skill is concerned. So 9 points obviously seems like way too much for me. Many are forgetting that the Bengals are one hail-mary away from being 4-0 to start the season. They haven’t dominated their competition, but 3 wins (two against quality opponents like Green Bay and Pittsburgh) give me a lot to like. A lot of people like to say that spreads don’t mean much, that the team that wins covers 80% of the time – and that may be true, but I think this game has the makings of a down-to-the-wire contest, with either team needing a big play to get the win. In that case, I’ll take the team with the 9 points, even if I’d give the Ravens a slight not in chance to win straight up.

Cleveland Browns (+6) @ Buffalo Bills: I hate to do this, because seeing Eric Man-Jina trade away his star offensive receiver only to put together his first win of the season in the process kind of makes me sick to my stomach. But, as the cards begin to stack, I can see too much to like about Cleveland and the points. They proved last week that they can run the ball well against a good defense. That should go a long way to covering the spread against the Bills. Then I see the injuries mounting in Buffalo. Offensively, they are probably fine, but they are already down two offensive linemen since the start of the season. Defensively it seems like every starter in their secondary is injured. Their starting safeties could both miss the game, their #1 pick from last year’s draft is now on IR, and their highly touted linebacker, Paul Posluszny is also out. This team needs to grind out clock, and instead the Bills rock the hurry-up. Until they figure that out, I’ll happily take their opponent and 6 points. I’m not sure how this spread started this high in the first place.

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5): I don’t think this bet has great value. This line started out at -6 for the Panthers, but has moved to just -3.5 – on the other hand, most of the bets continue to come in on 0-3 Carolina. However, I think the Panthers have enough big play ability to capture their first win. They are coming off two weeks of preparation, are better than 0-4, and should be able to run the ball against the Redskins. Washington’s two wins come against two of the worst teams in football, and neither were decisive. The Panthers have shot themselves in the foot repetitively, and have suffered greatly from a lack of good play calling. I think they re-commit to the run and stay relatively mistake free on Sunday to take down the Redskins by a touchdown.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Detroit Lions: Let me preface this with telling you that Detroit covers double digit spreads most of the time. However, despite their single win two weeks ago, this team has been hit by the injury bug. Now, some of the injured players might make it to the field on Sunday, but I’m not sure that’s such a good thing. I expect the Steelers Defense to give Matthew Stafford fits if he plays. I expect that physical Steeler style of play to be tough on the guys out playing with physical problems. I also expect the Lions to continue their brutal play at home. They were 1-7 ATS in Detroit last season. That’s right, 1-7. ATS… And they were often huge dogs. They don’t play well against the fans that have become accustomed to watching them lose. I expect more Steeler fans than Lion fans, the Steelers here are an easy pick.

Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: I know KC is a tough place to play, and I know the Cowboys haven’t been very good this year. But Tony Romo will find room in that secondary, plenty of it, and lets just say the Chiefs defense can cure a lot of ills for the Cowboys offense. On the contrary I don’t think KC will find much room to run against Dallas’s front line. They’ve been good much of the year and I think that continues. Dallas came into the season a little overrated, and their Week 1 win just added to that, but I still expect them to fight for a playoff spot in a tough NFC East – if they are going to do that, destroying a team like KC is expected. Dallas does their best work against bad teams, the Chiefs are that.

Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants (-15): I absolutely hate doing this, taking a 15 point favorite. But the Giants play at home, and with Eli hurting I think they run even more than usual. That might keep the game close, sure, but it will also keep the Giants on the field offensively, running the life out of that Raiders defense. This has the looks of a 27-3 game if I’ve ever seen one. 27 minus 3 is 24, that’s a cover. The Raiders have given up 23 points or more three times this year, I expect that to happen for the 4th time. If that does indeed happen, like I expect, then the Giants have to cover. Because no way are the Raiders scoring 10 points against the Giants defense. The Raiders have been out-rushed and out-passed in every single game this season. Oakland = JV team (with some varsity studs suiting up for fun) and one lunatic owner that likely enjoys making people millionaires that very well shouldn’t be. All this has me taking the Giants, even if I am with the public on a huge NFL favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Here I am again, taking a huge dog. They surely didn’t help me last week, but if I believe anything it’s that last week rarely means much when picking this week’s games. What I like about the Bucs as a 15 point dog is that they’ve lost just one game by more than 13 points this season, a 24-0 trouncing at the hands of the Giants in a game where absolutely everything that could have gone wrong actually did. In the last 3 years they’ve only lost 3 games by more than 15 points. I know this is a different team than they have been. The Bucs aren’t a good football team, they aren’t as good as I expected them to be even though the most I expected was mediocre. But McNabb should be a little rusty, and Tampa should run the ball a lot, eating away at the clock and Philly’s chances to win by three scores. It’s always tough to take a huge dog, a team with a 95% chance to lose, but I have to here, the value is too good. The Bucs aren’t the Raiders after all.

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Minnesota Vikings (-10) @ St. Louis Rams: My opinion, the Rams are the worst team in football. Another opinion, the Vikings are one of the best. I know this game is on the road in a dome after a short week, but I can’t over-think this match-up too much. It’s the Vikings and the Rams – and I have to think the Vikings are at least 10 points better than the worst team in football. A dissolved offensive line, a running game that will find no room, and a quarterback issue that has no answer on the team. Adrian Peterson couldn’t tear up the Packers, but I bet he makes his mark on St. Louis. I’ll take the Vikes, me and everyone else.

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: I want to take the Niners here, before any research I liked the 49ers, especially just -2.5 at home. I think the 49ers are one of the better teams in football. Atlanta travels a long way to play an old foe, and the Falcons offense hasn’t been nearly as successful as they were last year. The running game has slowed down to a crawl, and Matt Ryan hasn’t thrown the ball all that much, taking very few chances. But I wonder what a week away will do to the Falcons, and I wonder what a week away from playing the JV team in St. Louis does for the 49ers. What I’ve found in my research with Atlanta is that they generally struggle against teams that throw the ball real well, not necessarily a strength of the 49ers. Over their last 14 games, they’ve only lost to the Eagles, Patriots, Cardinals, and Saints – what do all those teams have in common? Prolific passers, air attacks that do most of their offensive damage. Atlanta isn’t great against the run, but they seem to do okay if they can key in on that part of an offense. Shaun Hill has done a good job, but the Falcons will make him win the game for the 49ers. History says he won’t be able to, and that has me going with the small road dog.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5): I like the Cardinals to win. Now, they don’t run the ball real well, so they won’t be taking full advantage of teh Texans defense, but Houston is generally terrible on the road, Arizona stops the run well, and the Cardinals score enough to keep up with and out-do the Texans. This game opened as a 7 point favorite game for the Cardinals, I think that’s more even value. But, since the line has moved, I see the Cardinals as a solid side bet here.

New England Patriots (-3) @ Denver Broncos: I’ll take Bill against his old assistant coach. Everybody has been talking about how the Patriots miss Josh McDaniels, about how the offense doesn’t look the same without him, well, I expect that to motivate a couple Patriots this week, and I’m still one of the few that think New England is an elite team in this league. Denver just can’t go 5-0, can they? They have a chance, definitely, I doubt this game will be a blowout. However, the Broncos beating the Cowboys last week doesn’t make them a great team. If they ice the Patriots in Week 5, I’ll give them their due, but until that happens, the Patriots as a 3 point favorite against a team that has beaten Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, and Dallas – sure, I’ll take my chances and like them. Plus, if all else fails, I can just wait for the refs to give a huge call to New England, right?

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Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks: As if the Hawks needed more problems, their best pass rusher (Patrick Kerney) is out on defense while their offensive injury woes continue with the loss of starting OT, Sean Locklear. It’s getting gross. I don’t know what it is about Seattle, one of the healthiest major cities in the world, but the home town Seahawks just can’t seem to stay healthy there. Injury free, I would probably take the Hawks here. But injury free isn’t an option, and Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars’ physical style of play only make room for more Seahawks injuries. David Garrard has played very well, and there’s holes in that Hawks secondary. If Matty Hasselbeck comes back, the Hawks have a chance, but I don’t know how the Hawk brass could put their main guy out there with rib problems and neither of his starting OTs to protect him. I’ll take the healthy team.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Bad value, bad value, but I pick them all! The Titans and Colts have split each of the last 3 years. That’s pretty interesting to me considering the persona of these two teams during that time period. Last year’s win by the Colts was basically meaningless, as it was Jim Sorgi leading the Colts to victory in a game where most starters sat from both teams. But this is a different year, no doubt, and the Colts have yet to lose while plowing through their last two opponents by a combined score of 65-27. The NFC West hasn’t stood a chance thus far. Peyton Manning has come in dominating, and the Colts defense that normally gives up tons of rushing yardage, has tightened a little. The Titans, on the other hand, are winless after 4 attempts. The best regular season record from yester-year hasn’t gotten over Alberty Haynesworth’s departure, and surprisingly it’s their secondary getting pushed around because of it. I really want to go against the Colts here, I know the public will be throwing everything at Indianapolis, and besides last week’s destruction at the hands of the Jaguars, the Titans have played pretty good football and lost to some pretty good teams (Pittsburgh, Houston, the New York Jets – all losses by a touchdown or less). But I believe the Titans secondary to be a lovely match-up for Colts’ backers. Peyton should pick apart one of the more porous secondaries in football, so I have to take the Colts, even with the bad line value.

New York Jets (-2) @ Miami Dolphins: It comes down to the Jets slowing the Dolphins rushing attack so Miami can’t score many touchdowns, the Jets pass rush putting too much pressure on a quarterback starting his second game at the NFL level, and an offense that struggled last week and will re-commit to the run this time around. The Dolphins are a solid football team, I like them, they are much better than their 1-3 record insists – but they just don’t have a good match-up with the Jets. The Colts are a nice match-up for them. Lots of good teams will have plenty of trouble with the Dolphins, I just don’t think the Jets are one of them. Neither does the public, but so what, the public wins sometimes too. Scary spread, it hasn’t really moved at all despite nearly 70% loving the road Jets on Monday Night Football in Miami. But I ain’t scared. Lets do work!

Trick or Treat?: Week 2 Fantasy Football Analysis

Welcome to Red Red Ryan’s weekly “Trick or Treat” section, where I, Red Red Ryan will break down some of the performances from the previous week and tell you whether or not you are being tricked or you can expect the same treat the rest of the way.

Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal:
Does a quarterback make the wide receivers? Or do the wide receivers make the quarterback? In my opinion the quarterback make the wide receiver, and that spells trouble for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. I’m not saying that they are bad receivers, I think they are elite receivers, however they have a terrible quarterback throwing them the ball. In 2008 with Jay Cutler locking in on them Marshall caught 104 passes for 1265 yards and 6 TD’s and Royal caught 91 passes for 980 yards and 5 TD’s. After two weeks in the 2009 season Marshall and Royal are on pace for less than half of their stats from 2008. Marshall is on pace for just 56 receptions and Royal for only 40. These numbers are very close to Devin Hester’s 51 receptions for 665 and 3 TD’s, who was Orton’s number 1 receiving target from 2008. Meanwhile in Chicago; Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, and Devin Hester all have more receptions than Marshall and Royal. You are going to get what you’re getting, no trick here.
Verdict: Treat

Matt Forte:
Tough going so far in 2009 for second year running back Matt Forte. In Week 1 he rushed for 55 yards on 25 carries and for the first time in his career he went without a catch. Matt had a bit of a bounce back game in week 2 catching 5 passes for 33 yards while rushing 13 times for 29 yards. It was nice to see Forte getting some touches in the passing game after the Week 1 loss. I think we will see Lovie Smith’s influence by seeing more passes to their playmaker out of the backfield. As for Forte’s lack of rushing yards, I think we see a big change in the Week 3 match-up versus the Seahawks. I expect Forte to get back on track this week against a beat up and generally soft run defense, and carry that momentum with him for the rest of the season.
Verdict: Trick

Eli Manning:
Which quarterback has the 5th most passing yards in the NFL? That’s right, it’s Eli Manning. Thus far in 2009 Eli has sliced and diced his way through 2 top 7 passing defenses from the 2008 season. I know it’s early, and history shows he’s bound to have a 3 INT game in the next 2 weeks, but I just don’t think it’s going to happen this year. And now, I couldn’t find any crazy red headed stats to back me up, because the truth is he usually goes interception happy. But if you look at the Giants schedule coming up they play against some pretty bad pass defenses, and unless the “G-men” can get the ground game going Eli will be throwing early and often to his underrated group of young wide outs.
Verdict: Treat

Cedric Benson:
Woo Hoo!! Cedric Benson is 6th in the league in rushing. Nice middle round pick taking the last starting running back available. Time to get some return from Cedric while his value is at his highest. Yes, his highest. So far Cedric has rushed for 76 yards against the Broncos and 141 yards against the Packers. Both teams in the bottom 6 rush defense from a year ago. The real test will be over the next 7 weeks when he faces the Steelers and Ravens twice, with the Bears in between. I believe Benson is a #3 RB and should only be started in a good match up. So if you can sell high on him, and buy low on a guy like Steve Slaton, I think you will be better off at seasons end.
Verdict: Trick

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football

Hello all! Last week was the first run episode of Fantasy Focus, and the guys did alright. I took home the trophy, having the highest ranking picks for the week while Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, and Papa Weimer did pretty good work listing their Top 5 at each position. Josh and Ryan looked like they got together to do this in NFL Week 2 Fantasy Football, having very similar Top 5 lists, but I assure you they live quite far away from each other, and have much different hair colors. Like last week’s article, I also have 3 levels of nice plays for the week, and going along with those 15 upside picks, I also have five guys I wouldn’t want to see in my starting lineup this week. Hopefully I can keep up the good work! Hope you enjoy!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Michael Turner – Mike will get a lot of carries, and this week he’ll double last week’s yardage output.
2. Tom Brady – I know the Jets looked nice last week against Schaub and company, but Tom is a different beast.
3. Marques Colston – I think Marques has a big week against some DBs that struggle against big, tall receivers.
4. Steve Smith – Steve was targeted 13 times last week, I’d say he gets the same, but does a lot more with those looks.
5. Brian Westbrook – This is less risky than last week, Westy will be leaned on, especially if Donovan is out.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I still believe in Eddie, despite last week’s low numbers. Good match-up against Cleveland.
2. Ronnie Brown – A disappointing Week 1 has him falling down the charts, but I’d take Ronnie against Indy.
3. Joe Flacco– Flacco will see yet another defense looking to stop his runners, that should once again open up his air attack.
4. Joseph Addai – Addai had a decent showing last week, but he’ll be a Top 10 back this week.
5. Leon Washington – I think Leon gets more action this week against the Patriots, I don’t think the Pats match up with him well.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Michael Bush – Bush looked really good against San Diego, the Raiders will run the ball a lot against KC.
2. David Garrard – I like Garrard to be more accurate this week, finishing in the Top 15 amongst QBs.
3. LenDale White – Ignored as a starter, White will get a handful of goal line carries this week, and should cash in.
4. Mike Bell– Even as Pierre comes back, Mike is the power back Coach Dumb wanted, he’ll get enough carries against Detroit.
5. Nate Burleson – One more week as a sleeper for Nate, he’s still owned in not enough leagues.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Jay Cutler – Another tough one for Chicago’s new franchise QB, the Steelers are tough on any QB.
2. Reggie Bush – The Saints will run a lot against the Eagles, and Bush is the 3rd best runner in that backfield.
3. Steven Jackson – Big Al makes life tough on choppy footed running backs. Sit on SteJack.
4. Julius Jones – Usually a softer defense, I think the 49ers will be tough against the run this year, JJ doesn’ t catch many passes.
5. Patrick Crayton – After a big Week 1, Patrick got picked up in many leagues, I would leave him out against the G-men.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Peyton Manning	2.Peyton Manning	2.Tom Brady     	2.Kurt Warner
3.Aaron Rodgers		3.Tom Brady     	3.Tony Romo     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Kurt Warner   	4.Kurt Warner		4.Matt Hasselbeck	4.Joe Flacco
5.Matt Schaub   	5.Aaron Rodgers 	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Drew Brees
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner
2.Maurice Jones Drew	2.Chris Johnson 	2.Michael Turner	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Brian Westbrook	3.Maurice Jones Drew	3.Darren McFadden	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Ronnie Brown		4.Clinton Portis	4.Maurice Jones Drew	4.Frank Gore
5.Clinton Portis	5.Brian Westbrook	5.Thomas Jones  	5.Chris Johnson

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Greg Jennings		1.Reggie Wayne   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Randy Moss
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith    	3.Marques Colston
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Roddy White		4.Jericho Cotchery	4.Andre Johnson
5.Steve Smith   	5.Greg Jennings		5.Calvin Johnson	5.Steve Smith

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Jason Witten  	1.Jason Witten		1.Tony Gonzalez 	1.Dallas Clark
2.Chris Cooley		2.Dallas Clark		2.John Carlson  	2.Jason Witten
3.Tony Gonzalez		3.John Carlson		3.Dallas Clark  	3.Zach Miller
4.Jeremy Shockey	4.Tony Gonzalez		4.Owen Daniels		4.Kellen Winslow
5.Zach Miller   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Chris Cooley

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Steelers		1.Vikings		1.Vikings		1.Steelers
2.Ravens		2.Steelers		2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Vikings		3.Redskins		3.Ravens		3.Falcons
4.Seahawks		4.Patriots		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Falcons		5.Packers		5.Cowboys		5.Vikings

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

Fantasy Q and A: Ask Papa Weimer Week 1

I’m really back now, and my fantasy football help is better than ever. I got my eyes lazered this last weekend and I can see clearly now that I need to get the hell out of this state. It’s been nice, but hell, it’s about to get rainy, and that’s when these old crooked football battered bones start to ache. Somebody win big money off my fantasy advice and send my tattered behind to Thailand so I can swim with the fishies, ride a whale shark, eat curry every day until I die, and just live it up in some nice warm sweaty weather. The dream. The reality? Here I am, going nowhere, and I might as well pretend to enjoy it. Here’s some questions (and answers) from the last 5 days…

Jordan Hardin from L.A. says, “I managed to get Frank Gore, Steve Slaton, Ronnie Brown, and one Adrian Peterson (yes the Viking) on one team. The problem is I can only start two. With AP, which of the other three studs to I start? PPR league…”

Doesn’t it suck when you draft like a super star and end up with too many good players and you never get them right on Sundays? I sure do, happens to me now and again, but I have a strategy. I start the guy that means the most to his offense or the guy that has the best match-up. If you have both of those things at once you’ve hit a one roll yahtzee and it’s time to celebrate good freaking times. I don’t think you’re quite at yahtzee level here, maybe a nice three of a kind, but you still have some hints. Frank Gore is going to get more carries than either of the other guys, but the Cardinals have a pretty solid run defense. That’s 1 out of 2. Steve Slaton gets to smash heads up against the Jets defensive front, a unit that should only be better than last year. But he also has a chance to catch more than a handful of passes against a pass defense that wasn’t rated real high in 2008. But I think Ronnie Brown is your best option. That Falcon defense is overrated, and they’re not rated real high. I’m pretty high on Ronnie (read # 16) and he’s got a great match-up, and he’s as healthy as he’s been in quite some time. Ronnie and AP, with two 1st round picks on your bench – crazy.

Dos Mexicans ask, “We’ve come across a pre-season trade offer that loses us Matt Forte, but we think makes our team better. We are currently starting Anquan Boldin, Donnie Avery, and Chad Johnson at our 3 WR spots, and Forte and Darren McFadden at our two RB spots (we also have Tom Brady and Jason Witten at QB and TE). Here’s the proposal… We give up Matt Forte and our 3rd QB Matthew Stafford for Steve Slaton and Eddie Royal. We lose our top pick, but Slaton is no small party favor. We have to do that right?

Yes sirs…. I feel like stopping right there, but let me dig in a little tiny bit – as a general rule I like to respond with a bigger amount of total words than my readers’ questions, thus I have some work to do. While Boldin, Ocho, and Avery might not be a bitter bunch of WRs, adding Eddie Royal, a likely 100 catch guy, to the list and allowing Avery to show you that he’s worth starting, is probably the best thing for your team. Especially because you get Steve Slaton, who to be completely honest, isn’t that much lower on my rankings than Forte. Shoot, my nephew only has him 3 spots lower than Forte. Do it guys!

Timothee Woodland wonders out loud, “I’m in a survivor pool, what am I looking at? I’ve never done this before and while I think I’m pretty good at picking games straight up, a few hints you go by would be too kind.”

I must admit, I’m a bit of a survivor guru. I win most of my small leagues with my buddies every year, so far as they’ve started to call me the crystal ball (*side note from Lucky Lester* -We call him Crystal Ball because his big fat bald head looks like a gigantic crystal ball, not because of his luck in survivor, which is a whole other story, that lucky old man). So, what I’m saying, while apparently tooting my own horn, is that you’ve come to the right place. This is what I do. First, don’t pick a road team unless you have no idea which home team to pick. So first thing, take half the teams, and throw them out. Next, don’t take a team on a rare winning streak (4 games or more, playing out of their mind) – why not ride them when they’re hot? Because those things always (or almost always) come crashing down. 3rd, jump at the chance to use injuries to your advantage. Face it, at some point during the season, a couple big name, big time players are going to be out. If the Dolphins get the Patriots without Tom Brady and Randy Moss, be happy to pick the upset. Last piece of advice, don’t agree to a half and half truce with your buddy when you’re in the finals, especially if he’s the one that asks you. If you accept, he’ll always say that he won money and shared it with you, because, well, it was his idea. Ties suck. Win big or go home trying!