Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions NFL Week 17 Pick

Welcome to absolutely meaningless football, or at least I think it is. It’d be great for the Lions to win this final game, but then again, it might keep Lovie Smith employed if the Bears come out victorious against Detroit’s hapless Lions. So maybe there is something to fight for after all… Hmm…. Something to fight for or not, it’s about time somebody figured out the Bears are bad – only a 3 point favorite in Detroit after beating up on the Vikings- something has to be trying to trick us. But I still have to go with the public here and ride the Bears to victory.

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Chicago might be bad, a lot worse than people expected, but they aren’t Lions’ bad. The books are expecting a big let-down after Monday Night’s offensive explosion against Minnesota, and I agree, there will be some sort of let-down. But a let-down against the Lions still leaves room for some error and some victory. Jay Cutler looked as comfortable as he’s been all season when throwing balls to Devin Aromashadu to win the game last week. Well, his favorite young receiver is back, and his running game will be able to see some success on Sunday as well.
A combination of those things and the reality that this is the Lions, playing in Detroit where they are often at their worst, during a completely lost season – has me going with Da Bears.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 16 Pick

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 16 Pick: First of all, anytime you get a team favored by double digits that averages one more point per game than they give up, have a record of 6-8, and have an offense that is, in no way whatsoever explosive, you are certainly taking a big chance by going with that team. So here I am, taking a big chance in Week 16 long after I’ve had plenty of time to learn my lesson.

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What intrigues me about the 49ers is their pass first offense and how it might just help them get way up against a team like the Lions. In almost every other situation, I hate that the Niners have become a pass happy team working in the spread, giving the ball to Frank Gore not enough times, and generally passing themselves into trouble – but against Detroit? I’m not quite as worried, that’s for sure. But 11 points? Tough one to stomach.

But we’re not just talking about the 49ers here. No, no. We’re not just talking about a team that is just 6-8, a team that lost to Seattle for goodness sake. But while we are talking about them, let me mention that in 4 of their 6 wins, they’ve won by double digits.

The reason I’m taking the 49ers by 11 is because they are playing the freaking Lions. Detroit is a battered team, and even when they were healthy, the best they could do was become a 2-12 team with 9 double digit losses this season. I’m not 100% sure, but I’m willing to bet that’s more double digit losses than any other team in the league. Good enough for me – I’ll take the Niners!

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11)

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: Week 15 Pick & Preview

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: Week 15 Pick & Preview: The Cardinals have bounced back all season, and it’s not like the Lions boast to be a formidable foe – and while the Cardinals certainly are tough for me to trust, I have to believe they get back on the horse and pummel a Lions secondary that ranks 451st in the NFL this season. That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but at the very highest, bottom 400…

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The problem with taking the Cardinals is that if they won, Vegas would get killed. It happens every once in a while, don’t get me wrong, and that’s never been a reason for me to go one way or another, but it is a reason to think twice about the amount of dough you throw down on the Cards. In some books I see 98% wagers on the Cards – in other books, right around 75%. The overall numbers I see has 71% of the public taking the Cardinals – but like I said, the books don’t always win.

The Cardinals haven’t lost two games in a row all season long. They are 4-2 on the road this season, 4-2 ATS as well. But they’ve lost each of their last 2 road games, and aside from their 30-17 win over the Vikings two weeks ago, the Cards haven’t been playing great football of late. Losses to the 49ers and Titans and a win over the Seahawks when they were down in the 4th – those have to bring up some questions. But like I said, they haven’t lost 2 in a row all season long, and against a Lions defense where they can run with success, I like big plays to be key to an easy Cardinals cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-11) @ Detroit Lions

Papas Picks: NFL Week 14 Underdog Predictions

Alright, I’ve gone 4-1 twice in the last 3 weeks – but the week I didn’t run into 4-1 was a tough one to stomach. I guess that’s the way with underdogs, when the ball doesn’t bounce your way, you look like a dope. I looked pretty solid last week as two of my unpopular dogs won outright, the Dolphins and Raiders. I was pretty stunned the Steelers fell at home to the Raiders, but I was pretty happy looking at 15.5 points against a team that hadn’t won big all year. It’s too bad I never write this article quick enough for Thursday games, because I would have loved getting another underdog win over the Steelers… This week, I have a couple more Dogs that look like pedigree models with all there glorious points – here are this week’s picks.

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Washigton Redskins @ Oakland Raiders (+1): The Redskins find ways to lose, really, they are very good at it. The Raiders have turned it around a bit, and now that they can complete a simple pass to a wide open receiver, they aren’t nearly as bad as before. I like them to win their 3rd in 4 games – crazy.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: The Chargers are better than the Cowboys, and Dallas always hits a wall and loses important games late. If they lose here, they have are guaranteed to be 2nd place in the NFC East – that means it’s a big game – that means trouble for Big D.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+3.5): The Bears are 4-2 at home this year – so that’s what I have going for me here. They’ve played much worse than they are, and the Packers have been on a streak of really impressive games – I think those things are bound to turn around in one cold afternoon in Chicago.

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Baltimore Ravens: Oh the Ravens and their impotent offense, I mean un-potent, well, what ever it is, it’s not producing many hits lately. With Daunte starting (for a guy with really small hands, I still think he’s pretty good, but I might be living in his fantasy dominating past) I think the Lions have a good chance to put up a few touchdowns through the air, the kid has always thrown the deep ball well. That will be enough to cover.

Seattle Seahawks (+7) @ Houston Texans: I know the Hawks suck on the road, but this team is finally getting healthy, and there’s nothing like a team finally getting healthy when all the other teams are finally starting to lose some players. Houston has struggled lately, definitely misses having one of their most dynamic players in the backfield, and is just 2-4 on the road this season. Oh yeah, and there’s rumbling that their coach might get the axe – that’s never good. One more thing, they’ve lost 4 straight.

Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens Point Spreads Free Pick

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Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens Point Spreads Pick: I know what you’re saying, this Detroit Lions defense is just what the Ravens need to get their offense clicking again. And you may be right, but I find it very hard to take a team giving up two touchdowns when they have a hard time scoring against the poorest of defenses. You remember a few weeks back when some imbecile happened to schedule the Browns and Ravens on Monday Night Football? Well I do, you may have been sleeping through the first half, because before you knew it Chris Berman was spouting off something about “Whoop” and there hadn’t been a single point put on the board yet. That was against the Browns, a team without their best defensive player, Shaun Rodgers, a team that gave up 38 points to Matthew Stafford and the freaking Lions. Please. Giving them two touchdowns to cover sounds like too much to me.

I know the Lions are bad, but while many are reasoning to go with the Ravens because of Matthew Staffords immanent absence from the line-up, I say that’s a better reason to take the Lions. Why, you ask? Well, because Daunte Culpepper gives this team a better chance to win football games. That’s right. Stafford may have a cannon, but the kid is a turnover waiting to happen. He’s had some nice plays this year, and I’m sure he’ll grow into a nice player, but Pep can still win football games – and I think he gives the Ravens all kinds of trouble.

The Lions are bad, no doubt, but it’s just a smart bet to go against a badly struggling offense that needs to outscore their opponent by 2 touchdowns to get a win. That’s just value.

Detroit Lions (+13.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Papas Picks: NFL Week 13 Free Predictions, Underdogs!!!

Okay, so I didn’t do so well last week taking the dogs. I’m sorry for that. That doesn’t mean I’m running away from this article, though, I’ve always followed up losses with wins, and why not now? Here goes nothing…

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New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+4): The Dolphins run the ball really well, always successful, they slow the game down, they keep just about everything close, and they’re always in the game. The Patriots obviously are having troubles defensively, and offensively Tom is off a bit. I like the Dolphins to keep playing tough football at home.

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Lions have some offensive firepower and if any team in the NFL could care less than the Bengals do about beating the crap out of their opponent, I’d like to see them. Cinci just wants to win, and when they are up by double digits they just run the clock out like it’s their job. They did it last week against Cleveland and I think they do it against against Detroit.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1): The Texans can’t finish the job and Maurice Jones Drew should find plenty of running room in Houston. All the losses in close games will come back to haunt the Texans sooner or later, and they’ll just fall flat on their faces. They’ve never been a good road team, and Jacksonville is always better at home.

Oakland Raiders (+15.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s 15.5 points. The Steelers have played close games all year, against both good and bad teams. That’s enough for me.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers: I think the Ravens are the better team. They have an attitude that has them step up for big games in the spotlight, and I don’t know if there’s much better than Monday Night against a Green Bay team that has turned up the volume on their season. Ray Lewis, meet Aaron Rodgers…

Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals Free Pick & Preview

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Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals Free Pick & Preview: There’s not much to like about the Bengals as a big favorite. I went against them last week because of their close game, slow it down, take no risk game schemes, and I benefited from that. The Cleveland Browns couldn’t do anything against the Bengals offense, yet the game stayed within 10, and I easily covered the AFC North battle. But that doesn’t mean I’m going against the Bengals again, I mean, every game is a different situation right?

The Lions just don’t get it. Instead of trying to run there way to a situation where they might be able to win with a lucky drive at the end, they go back and throw the ball like Matthew Stafford is a seasoned pro-bowler. A little note, for those paying any attention, Matt’s just a rookie and a rookie that loves to trust his rocket arm. Even when Brett was “trusting his arm” as a seasoned vet, he was an interception machine. Matthew will make some great throws, throws only a couple people in the league will make, but his chances will also get intercepted and the Bengals defense isn’t one to miss out on those opportunities.

The fact that Cincinnati blew a win against the Raiders because they didn’t come to play, played complacent, tried not to lose, and all that business, makes me think they won’t walk into this one against Detroit like it’s just going to be a cake walk. They will run a lot, but there’s no reason to leave the passing game in the booth – I think Palmer throws a couple touchdowns, and the Bengals cover this one by a touchdown in a blowout.

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5)

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick

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Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick: The Packers might not play very consistently against good teams (well they do play consistent, as they consistently don’t live up to their projected talent expectations – but you know what I mean) but they do beat up on the tomato cans. Okay, they lost to Tampa Bay – but somebody was bound to lose to the Buccos, and Tampa has played decent football the last few weeks. Prior to that, the Packers were 3-0 against the league’s cellar dwellers, outscoring the Browns, Lions, and Rams 73-20 in those three games.

It might have to do with defensive pressure and the fact that all the tomato cans struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If you can’t disrupt what Aaron Rodgers does through the air, you don’t have a chance against the Pack. The Lions have been out-passed in 8 of their 10 games, and have given up an inordinate amount of passing touchdowns through 10 weeks of football. They even gave up 304 yards and 4 touchdowns to Brady Quinn and the Cleveland Browns – yeah, those Browns, the same Browns that probably didn’t have 4 passing touchdowns all season.

I actually like the Lions a little better with Culpepper in there, but that was before Matthew Stafford went all tough-guy on the Browns and came in to throw a game winning touchdown with no time on the clock despite the seperated shoulder that will likely keep him out of this week’s tilt with the Packers. It’s a Nation TV game, and the Packers are going to show up. Getting a short week should help the better team, the team with less injuries. That’s the Pack.

Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions Free NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) Free NFL Pick: It’s hard to think of much to say about this game, but as far as wordy bastards go, I’m pretty much right up there, so you know I’ll give it my best shot.

These teams suck. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a more terrible offense than the thing Cleveland puts out there on a weekly basis, but Detroit’s overall consistently terrible play all over the field makes them hard to watch as well. The fact that Detroit can actually put offensive touchdowns on the score board make them a sexy pick here, especially when you consider that most of Cleveland’s total yards come from a guy that might not play because of an injury on Monday Night’s last second play. Joshua Cribbs is questionable for Sunday’s game.

When you add everything up, the poo and the spit and the tears and the questionable decisions, the rosters, the firings, and all of the disappointment and questions surrounding the Cleveland Browns organization over the last, well, since they became the Browns again anyway, I just don’t see how there’s any other pick in this one besides the Lions.

Detroit is no sure thing, don’t get it twisted, but they have an offense with some solid play makers, they have a quarterback that can stretch the defense, and a receiver that is one of the very best in the NFL. They don’t do much defensively, but I’m not sure they’ll have to. Give me the Lions in a game too ugly for even me to watch. And that’s saying something.

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16) Free Football Pick: The last time these two played the line was (-10) in Detroit, and it was actually pretty close to a Lions cover. This time it’s (-16) and it’s not like people think of either of these teams any differently. They still think the Vikings are legit and they know the Lions smell like… Sour beans. So, I would say this line is inflated a couple points – it should probably be 13.5, maybe, at the very most 14 – but it’s on the move and already up to 17 at a couple books. But I’m not scared.

Okay, I’m a little scared – I don’t like taking anybody at -16. This is pro football and if you’re ever a 16 point dog you are probably a good value bet. But even good value bets lose. And the way Matthew Stafford has been playing, and the way Minnesota just got two weeks to heal up and prepare for a Lions team that just pissed away a 17 point lead against the Seahawks a week ago, I just have to go against value and stick with Adrian Peterson and company.

Only 3 of the Lions 7 losses are by 16 points or more. They lost by 18 to New Orelans in Week 1. They were tied at 21 with the Bears in Chicago at half time, but they were outscored 27-3 in the second half and lost by 24. And they got shut out by the Packers 26-0. Last time around, Minnesota fought back after being down 10-7 at half time to win by two touchdowns and cover the 10 point spread.

The Lions have been double digit underdogs five times this year (which is amazing all by itself) and in those five games, they’ve lost against the spread four times (which is even more amazing. As double digit favorites this year, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS.

So, all things considered, all values ignored, I’ll put a little on the Vikings expecting more problems from Detroit.