Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Sept 30

Week 4 is on the way, and this questions and answers section is getting hot! I love to toot my own horn, so let me tell you, my advice last week was extraordinary, staying on par with the rest of my life – check out this week’s question and answers section… – Papa Weimer

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @

Papa, can you rank these defensive options Hou vs Atl. ( I don’t think Joey can have 2 good games in a row because I am from the Detroit area – I know better), GB vs Minn ( Minn QB situation) and Minn vs GB (No running game and Minn will key on the pass and Brett has the tendency to throw interceptions).

Also which of these RBs will play this week? I need a replacement for Deuce. Graham TB, Buckhalter Phil, Watson Cinn. and Gado Hou. It would be nice to know if Rudi, Brian or Caddie wasn’t going to play. I don’t have that luxury, but I have the next best thing you, so impart some words of wisdom…. -David Balog of the Detroit Area

Dave, solid questions, and it looks like you need some answers, so here you go:

I would rank your 3 defenses as follows; Green Bay, Minnesota, and Houston – I guess I have a couple reasons for my rankings. 1- I think Green Bay is not only the best defense of the bunch, but Minnesota has the toughest time putting drives together of all 3 opponents listed. With or without their starting quarterback, they have no passing attack, and Green Bay will easily slow that rookie’s rushing game down. 2- I like Minnesota’s defense a lot, and I think Green Bay has put up a few too many points lately, and I don’t expect them to light up the Vikings – but, this is a new season, and maybe all those points aren’t an aberration after all, so that’s why the Vikings slip to #2 – and that is a close #2 to Houston’s #3. See, I still have trouble believing that the Texans are for real, and thus I’ll drop them to 3, plus Joey Harrington showed he can toss a ball up for grabs here and there, and Atlanta’s big receivers can definitely grab that ball every once in a while, putting up points on defenses. However, Houston has been a very good defense to start the season, even against the Colts, so they are still a very good option, plus we all know Joey likes to throw the ball to defensive backs. That’s my rankings, but I don’t think you can go wrong here. Green Bay is probably the safest and Minnesota has the most risk, while Houston will almost surely sack Joey a handful of times and cause a turnover or two. Good luck, I’d go with Green Bay.

As for your running back dilemma, how about trying to pick of Brian Leonard? I know the Rams offensive output hasn’t been appealing at all, but Leonard is a great receiver and a good vision runner – and who knows, with the 20+ carries he’ll get, he might just be the change of pace guy the Rams need to get going. I know he’s starting, and he could be starting for a couple weeks, and I also know he’s going up against Dallas’s tough run defense – but when you’re going for a backup runner to have a fantasy-worthy day, why not take a guy whom you know is going to get carries? Between the guys you offered up, I’d rank them as follows; Gado (because Ahman Green is the closest to sitting out this week, and Atlanta’s defensive front has been brutal), Graham (because he played well with what he got, and Carolina’s defense looks like a shell of their former selves while Cadillac Williams has shown that he needs some help in the backfield to keep him healthy). The next two, I wouldn’t pick up. I think Rudi will almost certainly play, and the Bengals play the Patriots anyway, and who has done anything against them? And Buckhalter might not even get the majority of the carries if Westbrook is out (but I think Westy will be fine and play) – the Eagles still like their rookie, Tony Hunt. I’d roll the dice on Leonard first, then Gado, then Graham.

I am in a full keeper Dynasty League, and I have Steven Jackson and LaDainian Tomlinson at running back, with Ahman Green and Mike Turner as my backups. I have Plaxico, and that’s about it at receiver (Mushin Muhammad, Wes Welker, and Drew Bennett are my #2s). I have an offer giving me Frank Gore and Andre Johnson for LT – I never thought I’d trade LT, but Gore is 3 years younger and Johnson looks like he’s going to be a beast for 6-7 more years. I have to take this, don’t I? Mikeal Virta – I come from Finland

Mr. Virta, surely, I would take the offer given to you. It makes your team better, now and in the future. I think this is a bad time to trade LT, but it looks like you are getting fair value even with the running back’s struggles. Frank Gore is very young, and looks like he’s going to beast defenses long into the future while Andre Johnson, thought injured, has looked absolutely great in his first two weeks with Matt Schaub – and that looks like its going to be a great match-up for years to come. LT is a fantasy god, but when I look at your team, I think you will get more fantasy production from the duo of Gore and Johnson than you would with LT and Drew, Wes, or Muhammad. So, in a few words, it’s a good deal, you should take it.

Reggie Bush is on a bye week, but he looks like a good bet to start doing big things for the Saints, now, doesn’t he? Because he’s on a bye, and he’s looked God-awful, I have a chance to trade De’Shaun Foster to get him – Foster is my 3rd running back, and we only need to start 2 – the 3rd option is a flex – you make that deal on upside alone, right? – Coach K, one trade away, in Alabama

You betcha! Thanks to De’Shaun for blowing up just in the nick of time for you trade to go through. Hurry and take it before this guy has a second chance to realize that Foster is about to get hurt, he’s still going to share time with DeAngelo Williams, and he’s not going to play the Falcons every single week. Honestly, I think Reggie Bush is a good film session away from becoming a good running back in the NFL. If I were his coach, I would tell him that he is not allowed to make a move before he gets to the line of scrimmage. On both of his touchdowns last night, he just went forward, or to the corner, or wherever – he just went, that’s the key. He didn’t pause and wait for something to open up. When the NFL people say the biggest difference between college football and the NFL is the speed, they don’t mean the speed of the players, thought that changes a bit too. The speed of where and how holes open up, and the angles that need to be taken, that is the biggest change in speed. See, in college, Bush could wait for the holes to open, then hit them, and his speed would get him there. In the NFL, you have to hit a non-hole as if its going to be a hole when you get there, you have to be going full speed or when the hole opens up for that split second you’ll never be there in time. Bush needs to go forward, he can’t dance his way out of the club in this league. I’d make the trade, because I believe the Saints and Bush will eventually turn it around.

Papa Weimer, thanks for your advice last week with Ronnie Brown, I don’t even feel like throwing rocks at his car anymore. He single handily won my fantasy game for me, and now I’m getting a fat-head of the guy, coming to my front steps on Friday – Now that Cam Cameron has his nuts on straight, he should give Ronnie more touches for the rest of the season. But now what should I do with Lee Evans? I could pick up Shaun McDonald, Greg Jennings, or Rhoddy White – would you drop Lee for any of those donkeys? … PK Palmer from the U

PK, good thing you stuck with Ronnie, he absolutely balled the Jets this weekend, and is a good reason why the Dolphins might still win a few games this season. As for Lee, I’d keep him an start him this weekend against the Jets. Even with JP Losman out, I think Lee could have a huge day against New York. See, Lee is a lot like Steve Smith, but he just needs a quarterback to give him chances. If the Bills want any chance to win this weekend, you can bet that Lee will have about 10-15 balls float his way, if he catches half, that’s 150 yards and a touchdown. So, while he’s not the safest bet around, he’s about twice as talented as any of the three guys you listed, combined, so I’d stick with Evans and hope the Bills can turn it around under Trent Edwards. The kid throws a nice ball and is a pretty smart football player, so maybe he leads the Bills to an improved showing this weekend. Its worth the shot. Don’t drop Lee.

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

Week 5 College Football Picks Review: 2007

It was a bad week. That’s a sure thing. Check it out, these are the games I picked, and this is how it went wrong.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Michigan Wolverines (-16) @ Northwestern Wildcats:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This game was closer than I thought, but the Wolverines had it in hand. It was just an unlucky week for old Lucky – what more can I say?

Alabama Crimson Tide (+2.5) @ Florida State Seminoles:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

0-0 at half, Nick Saban’s offense was absolutely terrible. The Seminoles didn’t play amazing, but that FSU defense is stout. I lost another pick.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+14) @ South Carolina Gamecocks:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Carolina Gamecocks scored about 10 more points than I figured. I just hated picking games this week, the un-luck had me wondering what I did wrong earlier in the week to deserve all the bad ju-ju. I still haven’t figured it out, but stealing candy from those kids earlier in the week might have had something to do with it.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Virginia Cavaliers (-7):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

Yay! I picked one right. This went just like I thought it would. Weird. Because in every other situation this weekend, that didn’t happen. Thank you Cavs – you are now an all time Lucky Lester favorite. Thanks for keeping me off the snide.

USC Trojans (-20.5) @ Washington Huskies:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

UW almost pulled this one out, and that’s because the USC Trojans just couldn’t get their emotional woes under control. Locker was solid, but Josh Booty wasn’t accurate. The Huskies secondary was allowing receivers to get open, just as I had imagined, but Booty wasn’t finding them. He may have axed himself from the Heisman picture on Saturday evening in Seattle.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 4

Now that the bye week season is upon us, there are 14 NFL games to choose from. I’m giving my elite package 7 games and showing 7 free picks to my readers that just want the free stuff. Week 4 has loads of tight lines and some big time games, like Monday Night’s big showdown in Cincinnati. Check out my free picks, and if you are interested in my Elite Package, let us know.

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

I’m afraid of this game, because I’m not sure the Raiders can stop Ronnie Brown, and I’m almost positive that the Dolphins can’t stop any rushing attack starring a guy under 40 years old with 5 lineman of college experience or better. However, Miami has more riding on this game, with Cam Cameron yet to pull a victory out of his new team. With him done playing games with Ronnie Brown, and Trent Green starting to figure out Marty Booker and Chris Chambers better, I just have a gut feeling that the Dolphins take this game by a touchdown. However, there’s the Daunte Culpepper factor for the Raiders, which really makes me want to steer clear of this game. How bad does he want to beat the Dolphins? If I were a betting man, and I had to pick this game, I would wager with the home team – but as a former player, I know how much hatred can raise your game. My advice, steer clear from this one, but if you must, take the Fins.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+3):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Believe it or not, I like the Lions in this one. I don’t know if they are the popular pick or what, but I don’t know why everyone thinks that Brian Griese is going to save the Bears. He may play well in this one, but even with a decent day from Mr. Griese, I don’t think the Bears can stop the Lions’ passing attack enough to keep up with Detroit. Chicago’s secondary isn’t very good anyway, and with all the injuries in Chicago, it’s beginning to look even uglier. No Tommie Harris, no Mike Brown, no Lance Briggs, no Mike Ditka. It’s all getting much clearer now. The question is, if Brian can’t perform against Detroit’s secondary, will Rexxy get another shot? My fantasy team sure hopes so.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

I like the Houston Texans to take it to the Falcons. Even with Ahman Green and Andre Johnson on the sidelines, the Texans’ broken receiving corps and second tier running back situation will still be able to take advantage of the Falcons defense. Matt Schaub will be tossing the ball around against his old team, and how bad do you think he wants to win this game? More than a few people know that he was the best quarterback in Atlanta over the last couple of seasons, and he wasn’t smoking weed or killing dogs. Anyway, I’m done with that Vick business, all I know is that Schaub will make the Falcons wish they had kept him, even more-so than they already do.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

The Steelers have looked unbeatable. They don’t allow points. Their aggressive defense is legit. Willie Parker is a beast. Ben Roethlisberger is back to “doing the right thing” and limiting his mistakes. Santonio Holmes is a nice deep threat and Nate Washington will do a fine job replacing Hines Ward’s absence while Cedrick Wilson will also contribute. I don’t think Kurt Warner will surprise the Steelers like he did the Ravens – so don’t expect that guy to lead a second half comeback. Tomlin’s boys look good – a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS to start the season would look even better.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-11.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 1:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

That’s a lot of points to cover for a team who hasn’t looked like even a lesser version of last years’ offense, but I think it’ll all come around this week for the Chargers. God knows that the Chiefs don’t have the weapons to put up points, so its not like the Chargers will have to score 35 to cover. Three touchdowns and a field goal, and this game will be an absolute wrap. San Diego’s defense has underperformed while their offense hasn’t shown anything Norv Turner-esque. Expect that to change next week when LT steels the show at home against Larry Johnson. Yes, stop Larry and you stop the Chiefs.

Denver Broncos (+11) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Thursday, 1:00am EST: 5-Dimes)

I just don’t like the Colts to cover big spreads against run-heavy teams. Tennessee gave them trouble, because like usual, they don’t have the bulk to stop defense in short yardage instances. Travis Henry has beasted the Colts before, no doubt about that. Jay Cutler will be able to take advantage of the Colts deep, and Henry and that famous Denver offensive line will be able to keep the ball long enough to cover that 11 point spread. Plus, Denver’s secondary will force the Colts to run early and often, meaning there will be very few quick scores in this one. Long drives means a close game – so I’ll take the 11 points and Denver.

New England Patriots (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)

Until the Patriots prove that they aren’t the best team to ever play the game, I will be taking them and any spread Vegas throws at them. They have shown an ability to shut down key offensive players, eliminate entire rushing attacks, and put up points like they’re scrimmaging against air. The Bengals defense can’t stop anyone, and while Carson, Chad, and TJ are as talented as any WR/QB trio in the league, they can’t win this game by themselves. The Patriots have scored 38 in each game this year. They’ve given up no more than 14. They are the team to beat in the NFL.

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 4

This Week’s Top Team: Week 3 produced my top fantasy group thus far, with Tom Brady, Brian Westbrook, and Randy Moss leading my group of marry men. This week, the lineup looks a little different, and that’s because I need 150 points to be satisfied. Here we go…

QB: Tom Brady vs. Cincinnati: This is the toughest decision I’ll have to make, as there are 4 or 5 great options this weekend – unfortunately, I’m going for the safest choice, Tom Brady against that terrible Bengals secondary. However, McNabb and Romo are tough to pass up going into Week 4, all of these guys have great match-ups against bad defenses. I’ll stick with the new daddy.

RB: Brian Westbrook vs. NY Giants: Brain Westbrook is the scariest offensive player in the NFC. He’s scary because of his ability, and the fact that he’s a little fragile and you never know. The Giants defense doesn’t have one guy that is fast enough to keep up with Westy, so I imagine he’ll beast them if he dresses.

RB: Joseph Addai vs. Denver: At the end of the day, Peyton Manning will have handed and dumped the ball off to Addai more than he will have thrown to Harrison, Wayne, and Clark combined. Denver’s rush defense is bad, to say the least, and with so much energy spent on slowing Manning and company, I foresee a huge day for Mr. Addai.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Cincinnati: If my Tom Brady to Randy Moss combo continues to flourish, I have a hard time believing that Brady won’t find Moss for at least two touchdowns against a Bengals defense that has looked terrible week in and week out.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. St. Louis: Free Fantasy points over here! Come and get them. Terrell Owens is way too physical for the Rams defensive backs, especially with the speedy and talented Tye Hill out once again. I see a very big score discrepancy in this one, with Owens doing most of his damage in the first half.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Kansas City: If its not obvious by now that opposing teams are going to make Phillip Rivers beat them instead of LT, then I don’t know jack. What I see is everyone in KC trying to stop LT, and Gates going off for somewhere around 150 yards.

K: Matt Stover vs. Cleveland: I think the Ravens offense is good enough to move the ball, but they haven’t shown me they are much of a touchdown threat, so I’ll go with Stover. Matt is a money kicker, and given chances this week against a bad Browns defense, you can imagine he’ll get those kicks through the uprights.

D: Chargers vs. Chiefs: I’m taking another chance against the Chiefs here, because their offense is brutal. I’m hoping for a shutout, and or a defensive touchdown coming off a couple big hits by the OLBs in San Diego. It’s tough to imagine the Chiefs taking many chances in this game, but if SD can get up early, and start clicking on offense, KC will have to take some chances, and if that’s the case, I like the Chargers chances to put up defensive numbers.


Daunte Culpepper: How bad do you think Pep wants to beat Miami’s organization? I know Saban is gone, but Cameron didn’t even give Pep a chance, electing to trade for father time, Trent Green, instead. Well, I think Pep will outperform Green, and the Raiders might start a winning streak in Miami.

Rex Grossman: If Rex gets the boot by Wednesday, cross this one out – but if he’s starting again, I think he could have a good Rex day against the Lions. Detroit’s defensive secondary is bad, and Rex can have good days. Seeing as this will almost surely be his last chance, I’m going to throw him on my sleeper list and say, “start him!”

Brian Leonard: Many people are looking for that guy to be a replacement this week, and while St. Louis’s offense is brutal, and their line is battered, Leonard will get plenty of chances to do a thing or two against Dallas this week, and with all the problems the Rams are having lately, I have a feeling the Cowboys defense could come out slow, as this game is a wrap, and let Leonard do some early damage. Not a great option, but as a true sleeper stop-gap, I’d roll the dice on Brian.

Marshawn Lynch: I don’t know if he can be a sleeper, because he’s shown up to do damage against every team he’s played against this season, but Lynch is almost a must start against the Jets. N.Y. has shown they can’t stop the run (look at their past 3 games) and Lynch will carry the load for Buffalo with a rookie quarterback starting. Lots of touches against N.Y…. Sounds like a big day.

Thomas Jones: Jones against Buffalo’s defense is a lock for 125 yards and a touchdown. He hasn’t gone off yet, and he can sill be considered a sleeper – if you can trade for him, now is a good time to do it if you didn’t do it already. He’ll be a Top 10 guy in the RB list this week.

Lee Evans: Wow, how far this guy has fallen. I’m sure its not his fault, but that of the pathetic play of JP Losman and just bad overall team action, but Lee has gone from Top 10 guy to sleeper status in the matter of weeks. Evans has a nice match-up against the Jets this weekend, and they will need to get him the ball, or at least throw his was upwards of 15 times to have a chance in this one. Trent Edwards may be a rookie, but he’s well polished, and will give Evans a chance to have a nice day.

Joey Galloway: Joey is hardly a sleeper, but still not starting for many teams out there. The Panthers have been a very bad defensive team, even with all those solid players in that secondary. The confidence seems shot in Carolina, and even that mean defensive front hasn’t gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Look for Joey to get deep and Jeff to throw it as far as he can – right into Joey’s little hands.

Greg Olsen: Regardless of who throws him the ball this weekend, it seems like Greg Olsen will be open and ready to catch it. He looked decent last week against Dallas, and this week Detroit hosts the Bears. They have a bad secondary. Olsen will collect his first touchdown.

Packers DST: The Vikings… With Kelly Holcomb at quarterback? This should be interesting. It will be a low scoring affair, but the Packers are good enough to gather an early lead and force Holcomb to throw. They’ll take advantage of that.

LUCKY’S Week 4 Bench Riders

Peyton Manning: I know, you’re not sitting Peyton, but I don’t think he’ll have a Manning-esque game this week against Denver. Joseph Addai will get lots of touches, and the solid Broncos secondary will keep Peyton honest. Overall, Manning has always been a take what you get guy, and the Colts could run Addai all day long. If you are expecting 20 points from Manning, you will be surprised.

Larry Johnson: Just another week or two, Larry, and then you’ll at least have a chance. Right now, it’s the Chargers front 7, a scary unit – and against you, they’ll be the Chargers front 9 – good luck with that.

Edgerrin James: Last week it was Baltimore, this week it’s the new-look Steelers. Ken Whisenhunt would love to take home a win from this one, but I don’t see it happening. Pittsburgh shut down a very good rushing attack from San Francisco last week, and I don’t think the Cardinals will fair much better. That means another week on the Bench Riders for the Edge.

Marvin Harrison: Nobody will sit Marvin, but they should. I have a feeling that Champ Bailey will get the Marv assignment, and Harrison’s night will be limited because of it.

Algae Crumpler: There will be no time for Harrington to get the ball to his tight end, and the short pass will be heavily guarded by a nice set of linebackers and safeties. Overall, I think Crump’s day will be very average at best.

Fantasy Football Tear Jerkers – Week 4

Fantasy Football Know-It-All

My goodness, I’m not positive (for weed) but I’m pretty sure Travis Henry is going to have a few people shedding tears in fantasy football this week, and not because he’s going to tear up the Chargers defense. Oh no. How absolutely mentally ill can some cats be? What is with the youth today? I’ve had enough, but here are your tear jerkers for Week 4.

Donovan McNabb: I’m not sure who to blame, but McNabb has a lot of talent to be scoring 3 freaking fantasy points. It’s a shame they don’t give quarterbacks negative rushing yards for sacks, because if they did, he would have had at least -30 rushing yards, and he could have been on the hook for zero fantasy points. Either way, McNabb isn’t getting it done for my team, and I’m imagining, that despite last week’s performance against Detroit, you’re not too impressed with the guy, either.

Darrell Jackson: D-Jack continues to be unimpressive on a weekly basis. Nice. Was this cat just the product of being the #1 receiver in Seattle’s offense? Or is it possible that Alex Smith and the 49ers offense needs Norv Turner that bad? I don’t know, but if Alex continues to play poorly when he gets back, and Norv continues to blow all that talent in San Diego, I’m pretty sure Turner could get “job-backs” and head back to Northern California. Isn’t it terrible when a move hurts so many people. If only the Chargers Brass would have kept Marty around.

Marc Bulger: “Mr. Marc “Underrated, everyone should pick him over McNabb” Bulger hasn’t had a very good entry to 2007, and I’m not sure if it’s going to get much brighter from here. Bulger had -2 fantasy points in Week 3, and looked Terrible, with a capital T. Another starting lineman down, and that makes 3 backups for Bulger, who is a very stationary quarterback. Think, one of those British soldier guys that never move all day long. Well, Bulger needs to improve if the Rams want to be anything close to what they were last year, and keep themselves out of the NFC West cellar.” (Me, last week) As you can see, Marc Bulger isn’t a first time offender either. Yes, this underrated man has been doing some poorly rated things. He did get better than last week, putting up 2 fantasy points, but I don’t think that’s good enough. He got benched, so I have a hard time seeing him outscoring 2 next week – he’ll stick to his two-week average, though.

Tatum Bell: “Bell was supposed to be Mike Martz’ new Marshall Faulk, and Kevin Jones was supposed to have a hard time finding playing time when he returned from injuries.” (Me, last week) As you can see, this isn’t a first time offense for Mr. Bell. As it turns out, Mike Shanahan wasn’t just trying to squash Bell’s career, he just isn’t as good a player as you would think he should be. Well, Tear Jerker central, Tatum is riding the train.

Terrell Owens: I have a feeling you won’t see TO here too many times this season. It was as if TO and Tony Romo got together and said, “Lets show teams that Patrick can do dirty work, so I’ll stop getting double covered,” and bingo, TO gets 3 fantasy points while Crayton goes off the deep end, torching fantasy football for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns. Well, TO made fantasy owners cringe last week, as his antics didn’t win many fantasy match-ups.

Ravens Defense: Not only have the Ravens sucked when it comes to putting points on the board and winning games against easy teams, but their defense has been average at best. Last week, against a very mediocre Browns team, the Big Bad Ravens D totaled a humungous 4 fantasy points. Nice work, now tell me they weren’t worth a 5th round pick… C’mon, tell me. They are so good, they are definitely worth that high of a selection. Defenses… Hahaha…

Chris Chambers: I’d blame Trent Green but, well, hell – it’s Trent Green’s fault that Chambers didn’t do jack against the Raiders, but I’m putting the up and down wideout up here because I’m sick of everyone telling me that he’s been so good this year. Expect more crappy games, and less of those nice, incredible, 100 yard outings. Trent is brutal, and he’s even older than I am – okay, not true, but he’s almost old enough for me to have picked on him as a kid.

(Also considered; -Todd Heap (3pts), Matt Leinart (3pts), Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett (2pts a peice), Steve Smith (he’d be on the main list – 2pts – but I saw a little of that game, and he’s already mad enough that David Carr can’t get him the ball, it’s not his fault) and Jerious Norwood (I blame Patrino for that last one, what a dope)

Free College Football Picks Week 5 – 2007

Just to let you guys in on my lines, I put the place I picked them up this week. I place my bets early, and to get the best lines, that’s not such a bad move. However, weather, mid-week injuries, and health question marks could hurt or help you, so be cautious. Week 5 looks like a great one, with big non-conference match-ups and some conference games that hold all the importance in the world. I have a couple of each in my Free Picks for Week 5.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Michigan Wolverines (-16) @ Northwestern Wildcats:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I just think Northwestern is absolutely brutal and they aren’t going to catch the Wolverines off guard. If Michigan hasn’t learned by now that they can’t take anybody lightly they’ll never learn. I have a feeling that this cover will be covered by the end of the first quarter, and the beating won’t stop. Expect Mike Hart to have one hell of a game against one of college football’s worst football teams.

Alabama Crimson Tide (+2.5) @ Florida State Seminoles:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bet-Jam)

Alabama met their match against a solid Georgia team last week, but I don’t think the Noles will end up beating ‘Bama this week. Florida State just hasn’t impressed me. They have only one loss, Week 1 against Clemson, but overall, this isn’t your daddy’s FSU club. They will have trouble with the Tide’s defense, and offensively I think Alabama will put up the 20 points you need to beat a Seminoles offense that just can’t score.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+14) @ South Carolina Gamecocks:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I like Carolina to win this game, because that’s what Steve Spurrier does – but I don’t buy SC walking away from last week’s emotional trial against LSU and beating down the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. MSU has a solid club, and while South Carolina looked much better against LSU that State did, I just don’t think that will translate into a win of two scores or more. Look for South Carolina to control the game, and stay on top, but only win by 6-10 points.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Virginia Cavaliers (-7):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I think the Pittsburgh Panthers are very bad, and while I’m not the biggest fan of the Virginia Cavaliers, I do think that they are a good enough football team to take advantage of bad defenses and ineffective offenses. They’ll do both when they easily oust the road team this weekend.

USC Trojans (-20.5) @ Washington Huskies:
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Huskies will be a good football team in the next few years; will be is a key part of that sentence. The Huskies waste too much time trying to fake people out with that shotgun fake handoff quarterback sneak and that draw in the backfield to Louis Rankin. The Huskies need to take more chances with their young quarterback’s cannon. They have receivers that can make plays. But, until they stop playing football “not to lose” – they won’t be able to win big games in the Pac 10. USC has one of the fastest defenses in the land, and believe me, that will bother Jake Locker. USC might let the Dogs hang around early, but by the end of the 3rd quarter, this game should be covered.

Week 3 NFL Picks Review: 2007

Week 3 was another downer, but there were some good calls out there, some sure things that ended up working out, just too many bad bounces and disappointing lines to make me a happy man. And how about pushes? I can’t stand the damn things. 3-5-1 doesn’t win you any money does it? Stay tuned for a winner in Week 4.

Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ Baltimore Ravens: (win)

It took a little magic from the Old Kurt Warner, but in the end, the Cardinals covered with ease. In fact, after being way down, Arizona came back to tie it, and the Ravens needed a very bad unnecessary roughness penalty to get into field goal range. From there, it was all Matt Stover, and a win for the Ravens. But, the Cardinals continue to show they won’t quit, and they could figure it all out and be a force in the NFC West this season.

Buffalo Bills (+17) @ New England Patriots: (loss)

“I’ve thought long and hard about this one, a testament to how good the Patriots really are. But I’ve come to the conclusion that Vegas was sick of the Patriots covering every spread they threw at them, so they decided to throw this wrench in on gamblers.” Well, I should have bought into this action, knowing that the difference between the Patriots and Bills is similar to the Florida Gators and Temple Owls. I couldn’t take a 17 point spread, and I hope I don’t have to bet against the Patriots again, but hell, 17 points – I guess I should stick to my new philosophy, always bet on the Patriots.

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6): (win)

“I guess I’m still expecting the real Eagles to come out and throw the ball around and dominate a football game. The Lions and their playoff guarantee are coming to town, so I think this is the perfect time for McNabb to snap out of his funk. There is no secondary in football that has more wide open spaces in it than the one from Detroit. Look for McNabb to bust the 300 yard mark in this one as the Eagles finally get a win.” Well, I didn’t say that the Eagles would put up 56, but I did say they would get a win, and that McNabb would look good against the Lions secondary. Don’t say that nobody predicted his big day, it was coming, and I got it on the nose.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-3.5): (loss)

Look back at my picks to see how bad I got this one wrong. The Jaguars looked like playoff material, dominating the Broncos, and believe me, the score was a lot closer than the game looked. Travis Henry couldn’t find room, and the Jaguars young secondary looked much better than Weeks 1 and 2. I was wrong, yeah, I’ll own it.

Miami Dolphins @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5): (loss)

“The Jets are the better team of the two. Trent Green isn’t a good quarterback anymore, and the Dolphins running attack isn’t even close to what Cam Cameron was hoping to install early in his head coaching career.” Well, I got the first two right on the button. The third, well, that kept the Dolphins around just enough to cover. I hope you all pushed, because this line was down to 3 by the start of the game. I lost, and now I’m crying about it. I hate half point losses.

San Francisco 49ers (+10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: (loss)

“The 49ers have enough talent to play with any team in the league.” And they did, through 3 quarters. The Niners really bit the dust donw the stretch, and Alex Smith, who looked good in the pre-season, looked bad once again. The Steeler’s defense was too good to let the 49ers mount any type of comeback, and Pittsburgh put up 20 4th quarter points to cover easily. Remember, I was looking like a smart man when the Steelers were up 8 after 3 quarters. Then those Niners made me look bad. Dang Niners.

St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): (win)

Steven Jackson got over the 100 yard mark, but he needed 30 carries to do so, and the Rams were pretty much out of this game by half time. Marc Bulger looked just as bad as Drew Brees did on Monday Night Football, well not that bad, but bad – and the Rams look like the really bad team that they were in about 4 separate weeks last season. I’m interested to see which team will step out of their crap hole first, the Rams or the Saints – both have lots of problems. No doubt about that.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3): (push)

A push – Yee… Haw! The Hawks beat the Bengals, I should get a point for that, right? No, nice, I’ll just take a fat tie, with everything resting on the Saints going in to Monday Night Football. Uh oh.

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints (-4): (loss)

“I like the Saints to come back from down in the dumps on Monday Night Football. New Orleans has played very poorly this season, losing all momentum from a year ago. So now its up to them to get things going again, and from the looks of it, that’s when the Saints are at there best. Vince Young is great, (and a spread killer by the way – so watch out for this one) but I don’t think he’s a good enough passer to fully take advantage of the Saints problematic secondary,” (Me) I was right about some things and wrong about others, the problem is, I was wrong about the pick – which makes me just wrong. I was definitely wrong about the Saints being at their best – I’m not sure when that is supposed to happen, but it doesn’t look good. I was right that they’ve played poorly, and that you should watch out for this one because Vince Young is a spread killer (he has 2 ATS losses in his pro career). I was also wrong that Vince isn’t a polished enough passer to take advantage of the Saints defensive secondary. Actually, who cares, the could have throw twice and won this game. The Saints can’t tackle, and thus they lose. What can I say? Don’t expect a team to morph into something they aren’t. Write that down.

Week 4 College Football Picks Review: 2007

Can I post yet another winning handful of picks in Week 4? Another week, another winner. Sure, I was only 3-2, but 60% isn’t bad, now is it? Yes, that’s a winning number, and if you put up the cash, you might just find that 60% makes you money. This is the path on took to 3 wins and two losses.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Florida Gators (-23) @ Mississippi Rebels: (loss)
Florida barely pulled this one out, and a 23 point cover was completely out of the question by the time this one got through the first few minutes. Overall, Ole Miss played well, but even in their bad days, the Gators look unbeatable. I get a loss.

Duke Blue Devils @ Navy Midshipmen (-12): (loss)
Duke covered again, making me rethink my use of my old gimmie pick. Duke always use to be a crappy loser that I could rely on to give me a much needed win. Not this week, that’s for sure.

Kentucky Wildcats (+7) @ Arkansas Razorbacks: (win)
“The truth of the matter is, I think Andre’ Woodson is special, like Darren McFadden special, except the difference here is, Woodson is a quarterback, and in College Football, I’ll take a talented team with a special QB over a talented squad with a top notch RB. I think Kentucky has more balance, and therefore will win this game. You’ve got to like the points, too.” (me) Arkansas looked good, but in the end, their run-heavy attack just wasn’t enough. When Dick needed to come out and get his offense going, the Razorbacks struggled. On the other hand, when the Wildcats needed a big play, Woodson did his damage.

Michigan State Spartans (-12) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: (win)
This one didn’t start off good for me, and I was thinking, DAMN! But then the real Fighting Irish stood right up and the Michigan State Spartans of all teams just straight took it to the Irish. Notre Dame is bad, folks, and I don’t know if its getting much better any time soon.

Arizona Wildcats @ California Golden Bears (-16): (win)
Once again, the Bears just barely pulled out a cover in this one. I’m tired of watching Cal come out and stomp teams and think, “Ha, I’ve got this one in the bag,” before allowing lesser teams right back in the game to where I think “Ha, freaking Cal, at it again,” and then either barely covering to give me some heart relief, or just blowing the spread all together and making me want to write bad things about them all week long.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 3

Week 2 wasn’t a grandiose experience, in fact it just wasn’t a happy place at all. I didn’t bomb out like some cappers did, but I did take a hit with a losing record at 4-5-1. I blame the Eagles, but the better man would blame himself. Ha. Bad play calling, and they didn’t take any chances. Brutal. How about them Browns? Taking down the Bengals. Very interesting. Week 3 will almost certainly feature an upset or two. Pay attention and you might just get paid on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ Baltimore Ravens:

I think that the coaching staff in Arizona is solid enough to cover a 9 point spread against anyone. When you’re talking about the opponent being a Ravens team that has looked defense driven and offensively paralyzed, I can only go one way in a game like this. With Boldin and Fitzgerald, even a 3 touchdown lead isn’t safe, but I don’t think the Ravens will ever get that far out in front. The Cardinals rush defense is much better than the average man has been led to believe, and their secondary isn’t bad either. Matt Leinart isn’t ready to be a star yet, but Edgerrin James will get his 4 to 5 yards per carry to keep the Cardinals in it enough to cover early in the season.

Buffalo Bills (+17) @ New England Patriots:

I’ve thought long and hard about this one, a testament to how good the Patriots really are. But I’ve come to the conclusion that Vegas was sick of the Patriots covering every spread they threw at them, so they decided to throw this wrench in on gamblers. I’m not buying any spread being 17, this isn’t college football, and while the Bills really struggled last week, and I believe the Patriots will have their way with Buffalo, I think 17 is just too much. We’ll see, the Patriots sure are good, but the Bills are an NFL football team, one that has underperformed on offense this far. They’ll be better against this great defense and cover.

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6):

I guess I’m still expecting the real Eagles to come out and throw the ball around and dominate a football game. The Lions and their playoff guarantee are coming to town, so I think this is the perfect time for McNabb to snap out of his funk. There is no secondary in football that has more wide open spaces in it than the one from Detroit. Look for McNabb to bust the 300 yard mark in this one as the Eagles finally get a win.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-3.5):

I don’t see the Jaguars sticking with the Broncos for long in this one. Dever surprises me from time to time, but I just think this is a very bad match-up for the Jaguars. Jay Cutler will keep the Jaguars young safety group honest with his big arm, and Travis Henry will go for 150 yards against the Jags defensive front. Denver runs too well for the Jaguars. The only think that makes me think the Jags have a chance is their two headed running back monster. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew are two guys that have been poor early in the year, but both are too talented to stay down, and Denver’s front line isn’t the run stopping unit they want to be. Look for Jacksonville to put up and early fight, but fail to take the next step because of their feeble passing attack.

Miami Dolphins @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5):

The Jets are the better team of the two. Trent Green isn’t a good quarterback anymore, and the Dolphins running attack isn’t even close to what Cam Cameron was hoping to install early in his head coaching career. On the other hand, the 0-2 Jets finally get to go against a defense not known as one of the best in the league. No more Baltimore, no more New England. Finally, the Jets will be able to rely heavily on Thomas Jones – and TJ will run with every chance he gets. I expect a big week out of the Jet back.

San Francisco 49ers (+10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:

The 49ers have enough talent to play with any team in the league. They haven’t been too productive offensively, but Alex Smith will start to play better, maybe even against a tough defense in Pittsburgh. The Niners are by far the best team the Steelers have faced thus far, which always makes for a tough match-up. I think Pittsburgh will win this game in the end, but a field goal difference is much more likely than a 9 point spread.

St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5):

I’m not sure that the Rams offense can be productive without solid offensive lineman. Steven Jackson isn’t the type of runner who can create on his own by using quickness or ankle breaking cuts, he needs horses up front to give him a little time to get going. Tampa Bay has played well defensively, and they seem to be improving on offense. Joey Galloway is still a gamebreaker at receiver, and without Tye Hill (out for the season) the Ram secondary is just that much worse. I expect a close game, here. But the Bucs will pull ahead by a 7-10 points in the end.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3):

There’s a reason why the Bengals lost to the Browns, remember that. Cincinnati got 6 turnovers from the Ravens and still almost lost that game in the end. If you can’t stop the Browns, I don’t know who you can stop. The Seahawks gave their game away last week, and they are tough at home, so overall you can expect a good game out of them. Plus, Seattle has a very solid defense and an admirable offense. With Cinci showing they can’t stop their own scout team, I imagine there will be some points put up in this game.

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints (-4):

I like the Saints to come back from down in the dumps on Monday Night Football. New Orleans has played very poorly this season, losing all momentum from a year ago. So now its up to them to get things going again, and from the looks of it, that’s when the Saints are at there best. Vince Young is great, (and a spread killer by the way – so watch out for this one) but I don’t think he’s a good enough passer to fully take advantage of the Saints problematic secondary, and I think New Orleans is good enough up front to limit the Titans rushing attack. I like this game to be over in the 3rd quarter, with New Orleans putting up 30+ on Tennessee.

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Sept 22

Week 3 is over and done with, and I think my advice is starting to make you all realize that I’m not your average douche. Well I’m back for my 10 week anniversary, and these answers are better than ever… err… maybe there just as good as ever – I’m always right, what can I say? I don’t know, I’m old, bring it! – Papa Weimer

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @

I have 2 iffy quarterbacks in McNabb and Grossman. I realize there is no good choice here, but I need to play one of them this week. What are your thoughts on the lesser of these two average Joe QBs in terms of FF starters? I go by the theory, “Stick with your horses”, but I see more jackass than horse regarding this cluster hump of a decision. Enlightenment sought and hopefully found… -Nutz O’Breen in Sea-Town

Mr. O’Breen, may I call you Nutz?

McNabb is a very good quarterback that is about to absolutely drop bombs on the pretend Lions in Detroit. Who in the hell names a Detroit team after a jungle cat for god’s sake? Anyway, I don’t think you have anything close to a dilemma here. I would consider the waiver wire over Grossman, just because he’s such a toss up. Honestly though, I think McNabb could still come back to have a Top 3 QB Fantasy season, I kid you not. Detroit’s pass defense is so bad that Josh McCown threw for 300+ yards and 2 scores against them. Yikes. Like you said, “Stick with your horses”. You have a solid option any given week with McNabb. You should just hope that the Eagles’ brass stops calling such shit-hole plays. If I did have a vested interest, I would certainly go at you to try to get Donovan with the way you are thinking about him, especially before he blows up this week. On to Week 3, Mr. Nutz

I can’t hold out any longer, can I? I know I’m supposed to wait it out, trust my picks, and get a little deeper into the season, but I’m sweating bullets right now. I went LJ with my first round pick, Thomas Jones with my 2nd, Larry Fitzgerald with my 3rd, and Donovan McNabb with my 4th round pick. Needless to say my selecting you in Fantasy Leagues is like a sadistic version of the Madden Curse. I got a trade offer giving me Marion Barber and Plaxico Burress for LJ and Larry Fitzgerald – should I take it? P-Dub in Southern California

Mr. Dub, settle down before your life becomes a complete fantasy depression meltdown. I just picked up LaDainian Tomlinson in my Dynasty league because of a guy just like you. LT’s 1.9 yards per carry don’t scare me one bit, and you have a nice foursome there, I’d hold on to them if I were you. I’m telling you guys, unless a player is really in for a mess, has injury problems, or he’s been spending a lot of time at the Vick mansion, you should hold on to him and ride him out. Jones will have a much better week this time around (Week 3) and he looks solid for the rest of the season. Now that New England and Baltimore are out of the way, the oceans don’t seem quite as rough. LJ has 3 more pretty tough defenses to face, but he’s just getting back to the 20 carry area, and I would hold on to him, he’s an absolute beast. He’s shown, that no matter who he’s playing, if he gets 25-30 carries, he’s going for at least 100 bills and a touchdown. That’s like clockwork for the Beast from Penn State. McNabb will blow up this week to the tune of Top 5 fantasy quarterback status, and Larry Fitz, I don’t know, I always thought he might have a tough time after his young quarterback had to learn a new offense, but I’d hold on to him, too – he’s too big, strong, fast, and athletic to trade. Plax will get hurt, if he’s not out already, and Marion Barber is solid, but he could go for nothing any week depending on who’s getting the rock more in Dallas. Stick with what you got, big guy, and lay off the sugar.

Reggie Bush sucked it up for the second straight week, as did Steven Jackson. I thought my two headed beast at running back would be my ticket to the Fantasy Super Bowl, but now I’m 0-2. I have Adrian Peterson and Tatum Bell on my bench, would you start either of those fools over Reggie and Jackson? Is there anyone you’d try to pick up in a trade for Bush or Jackson? – Cletus Crown from Brooklyn

Reggie and Steven are still solid options, but with Jackson’s offensive line deteriorating with every game and Reggie’s entire team playing like steamy dump, I can see where you’re getting a little frustrated. But, you’ll need to ride it out big guy. Steven Jackson is still a beast, he’ll just need to work harder to get his points in. If you could trade him for Travis Henry or maybe try to get a solid receiver and a running back like Thomas Jones. See, while I think Steven is still a very good running back, I have a feeling his chances of getting back to where he was last season are all but lost. There are so many offensive line problems that he has to stay in and block on passing downs, meaning his reception numbers could be cut in half. That really limits his game. But if you can’t trade him for good value, I’d just hold on to him. People forget that he didn’t really turn it on until the latter part of 2006. As for Reggie, I can’t believe that the Saints are going to continue the entire season collecting one touchdown per game. No chance. As soon as these guys, and Reggie in particular, stop trying to do too much, they’ll be solid options again. But Reggie will have up and down games. He’s not the starting rusher, and about half of his points come as a receiver – so like receivers, he’ll have more ups and downs than solid numbers every week. If you want to trade Bush, wait until he has a huge week or two – people always love this kid, and he’ll have plenty of takers after a couple touchdowns. As for your starts, I’d go with Adrian Peterson (that game should be a pound it out game, so he’ll get 20-25 touches – which means good things for his owners) and Steven Jackson (Jackson goes against a tough Tampa club, but he’ll have a solid week this time around) – but Bush isn’t a bad option either. Tennessee doesn’t have a bunch of studs to shut Bush down, but then again, neither did Tampa Bay or Indianapolis. Bush will have a break out game sooner or later. Tough call, but Jackson and Peterson get my nod.

Ronnie Brown… This cat is the bane of my existence. I’m thinking about throwing rocks at his car if I ever see his ass drive by down here in Miami. Should I be more pissed at Cam Cameron or RB? Please tell me there’s light at the end of the tunnel… PK Palmer from the U

PK, you are a funny man – but you all need to quit it with that U crap. The U? Do you guys realize how stupid that sounds? PK’s talking to the manager of a business that is hiring for a nice job with a window office… “And where did you get your degree from, sir?” PK replies, “The U!” PK gets a “thanks for coming in” and his application gets a “toss out the window of the office he’s not going to be working at”. It’s a discredit to how smart you college students are – you are going to the University of Miami, The U is a name of a bar in Eastern Montana – so give it up. As for you fantasy questions, yes, look for Ronnie’s car, it’s a big Escalade with spinners and a license plate that says, Half-Nat-Champs. No, I’d blame Cam Cameron. This guys insistence to be the next Mike Shanahan and play all these damn mind games with his players is going to have Ronnie Brown throwing rocks at his windows in no time. Ronnie is a very good runner, strong, good hands, powerful, fast – there’s not much I don’t like. His offensive line isn’t very good, but he’s always done well when given the chances. Maybe Cam will snap out of it, that’s your light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe Trent Green will go down with an injury, and then defenses won’t be able to run-blitz and shut down the pass as well. Like Drew Bledsoe in Dallas last season, Green is too stationary, and that makes it easier for defenses to shut down the run. Sounds weird, but its true. Keep the high hopes man, and good luck. Cam drives an old school convertible, cherry red, looks like a rich surfer’s car. Easy to hit his fat head with the top down like it is. Plus, unlike Ronnie Brown, Cam won’t chase you down and beat your ass. I’m telling you, Ronnie is a beast.

I may be crazy, but I’m starting Roydell Williams over Darrell Jackson this week. Also, I’m throwing Ronald Curry in my lineup over Lee Evans. I’m taking the Cowboys defense over the Bears, and I just dumped a blond for a red-head. Am I sick? Hide and Seek in Iowa

Hide and Seek, I wonder if that’s considered clever? You obviously don’t want anyone to recognize you, but then again, you’re that one guy who just dumped a blond to date a crazy redhead. How do I know redheads are crazy? I was trying to find a famous redhead movie star that you could have dumped the blond for, and I looked up famous redheads… Coming in at #9 was Jesus. F&%*$!!! Are you kidding me? Jesus is #9. First of all, I didn’t know Jesus was actually a redhead, and honestly, I think that’s a little more realistic than the blond Jesus picture at the last church I attended, but if he was actually a redhead, how does he get 9th? Love him or hate him, Jesus is definitely in the Top 3 of any list. And there you have it, the redhead who took time out of their life to put up a site listing famous redheads actually put Jesus 9th, right behind George freaking Washington and right in front of Galileo. “Mother of God!” Well, if that’s not a reason to call you a sick son of a bitch, I don’t know what is. Billy the Kid was 2nd, by the way. How do you think Jesus took that news? “Hey Jesus, you’re down to 9th in the order.” Talk about some wrath. Aside from your real-life problem, I’d say you are right on track with you starts and sits. I think Williams could have a huge day, while D-Jack goes up against a tough Steeler D. Ronald Curry has a great match-up against the Browns, and Lee has to lace them up against the “Greatest Team of All Time”, the Patriots. The Bears offense isn’t even close to the Cowboys offense, and Rex has shown he’s turnover happy. So I think the Bears have a better chance in that one. Just to make sure, ask your new Redhead if she wrote, or had any influence to the this page. If she says yes, protect yourself from some serious bad luck and dump her immediately. I’m gone, ya’ll!

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**