NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 12

Lucky got it rolling again last week with a sparking 10-5-1 record. This brings me to 78-73-6 for the season. I expect this week’s picks to be easy to digest… well easier then Grandma’s turkey anyway!Colts(-9.5) @ Lions – I’ve got to take the colts against a week Lions D. And when it comes down to winning by 10 points, you can only look at it one way. That’s like 7 minutes of Peyton Manning throwing the ball. Peyton’s putting up one of, if not the biggest year a quarterback has ever had. His touchdown pace is ahead of Dan Marino’s record of 48. I don’t see that slowing down this week. Thanksgiving will give a good portion of a turkey to Edgerrin James as well. Edge comes off a 200+ yard performance last week. The Lions aren’t good enough to keep up with the Colts offensively. The defenses might be equally as bad, but no offense in the NFL compares to the Indianapolis powerhouse set of backs and receivers. After playing a tough game against a broken down Viking team, the Lions will be looking for a big win. But it ain’t happening this week.
Game Date: 11/25/04 12:37 ET

Bears(+3.5) @ Dallas – At this point I’m almost rooting for the Cowboys. But I’ve got to chose who I think has the better shot. The Bears at +3.5 in a game where 3 might win it seems like a pretty good bet. Here’s my reasoning. I don’t know what everybody else saw with Drew Henson, but he didn’t show me much. He was playing the toughest defense in the league, but all this hype is ridiculous. He is facing Craig Krenzel who, and thank God, finally lost a game after 3 straight wins. Last week I said the Cowboy D could even make Kyle Boller look like a good quarterback. This week, ummm, well Craig led his college team to a National Title. Craig Krenzel’s quarterback rating is skimming the bottom of the league, but this week I’m guessing it doubles. Now, 60 isn’t much better then 30, but it’s worth 3.5 points, especially against a pathetic Cowboy team starting a guy who was batting .200 and playing a third base for a minor league team a year ago. Game Date: 11/25/04 16:15 ET

Ravens @ Patriots(-7) – The Patriots are just flat out better than The Ravens. Chris McAllister comes back this week, but the Patriots should still put up enough points to beat a Raven team minus Jamal Lewis. I would just put Ray Lewis at running back and watch him destroy fellow linebackers, but The Ravens never listen to my requests. Chester Taylor won’t keep 8 Patriots in the box, so Boller’s life suddenly gets more difficult. He’s no Joe Montana with single coverage all day either. A tough Pat zone should limit his effectiveness from a week ago. In an important game for The Ravens, New England will do what they’ve done 24 times out of their last 25 attempts, and win. Winning by a touchdown seems like the best bet here. Game Date: 11/28/04 16:15 ET

Eagles(-7) @ Giants – Once again we have a rookie QB who came in and did all right last week. Now everyone has been saying how much promise Eli showed against the Falcons. No one seems to pay attention to Jack around here I guess. The Falcons have the worst pass defense in the league. Eli threw for a 162 yards on 17-37 passing, with one TD and two picks. I guess Ryan Leaf showed promise too. Don’t get me wrong, but Eli isn’t ready to make a difference yet. The Eagles, who cause turnovers with the best of them, will pick Eli multiple times, sack him often. This will be a laugher by the 3rd. The Giants D won’t slow the Green Machine. Donovan and bunch will have an easy time facing a D without their leader.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET

Redskins @ Steelers(-10.5) – For the first time this year, a Redskin spread looks reasonable. But am I going to take them? No chance in hell. The Steelers don’t put up big numbers, but their defense is stout. The Redskins offense is blinding. I’m not talking their speed either. My eyes seriously hurt watching Patrick Ramsey run a team. The Redskins have managed to make Clinton Portis look bad, which hasn’t happened since… well ever. Pittsburgh has a good thing going here, and if the Redskins put an end to that I will be stunned. I’m not talking The Chargers in playoff contention stunned, I’m talking Drew Bledsoe returning a punt, breaking seven tackles while sprinting 100 yards for a touchdown stunned. Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET

Browns(+6) @ Bengals – The Bengals put up a good game against what I’d say is the most complete team in the league. But, they haven’t beaten anybody, besides Denver. The Browns can pretty much say the same, but they’ve been robbed time and time again. It just seems like Butch Davis walked under a bridge of ladders before he started coaching the expansion Browns. Every draft pick has been injured for extended periods. That includes Kellen Winslow Jr this year. They are tough though. The Jets only beat them by 3. The Eagles went to OT to beat them. All year they’ve been in games. The Browns beat the Bengals 34-17 in week 6 in Cincinnati. The Bengals have been a little better of late, but 6 point favorites? I don’t think so.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET

Jaguars @ Vikings(-6) – This game marks the return of two important players, one for each team. Randy Moss makes his return for the Vikings, which should do everything to boost their confidence. But, Byron Leftwich comes back early for the Jaguars as well. I’m not sure who’s more important for their respective teams. I guess we’ll see Sunday. The Jaguars play close football every week. They should have a tough time stopping Culpepper with his main weapon back in action. I’ve got to take a Vikings team that looked unstoppable with Randy in the lineup earlier this year.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET

Buccaneers(-2.5) @ Panthers – The Panthers looked great last week. But they were just playing Arizona. Nick Goings, yes that’s right, Nick Goings ran all over the field, mostly forward, scoring three times. I’m guessing this won’t happen against Tampa Bay. Brian Griese should continue his impressive quarterbacking for the Bucs though. He’s going up against a defense that has been shredded by injuries. In fact the offense has felt it as well. I mean, Nick Goings scored three times for God’s sake. Neither of these teams is impressive, but the Bucs will use a solid rushing attack led by Michael Pittman.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET

Chargers(+3) @ Kansas City – The Chiefs continue to be rated as if their team is as good as it was last year. They aren’t. The Chargers on the other hand have beaten the spread so much this year; betters everywhere are paying the price. (I know all about it) Lately I’ve ridden the Drew Brees bandwagon. He’s been good, but that’s not the only reason. I’m real sick of “Big” football writers dropping articles about how Brees is going to be traded next year. What a dumb idea. I mean, don’t put it past the Chargers organization, but how stupid can they be? Brees has turned into more than they had hoped, but now they want to start all over with Phillip Rivers. I hope they do. It’s too nice in San Diego anyway. On Sunday Brees will run his team up and down the field against The Chiefs. LT, who is back, looked dominating against The Raiders last week. This week will be no different. The main thing is, The Chargers have a solid D. It isn’t the Charger D from a year ago. I’ll take the Chargers to win here; I can’t see them needing the 3 points. Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET

Titans @ Texans(+1.5) – Houston let a big win slip out of their grasp last week against Green Bay. David Carr needs to step it up as he did earlier in the year. He isn’t a rookie anymore, someone needs to tell him that. He’s got big weapons in AndrĂ© Johnson and Dominic Davis. Carr is fast, has a big arm, and is accurate. The Titans team, who virtually has nothing to play for, beat The Jags last week. The Texans, an underdog at home, should prove to be more than Tennessee can handle. Carr will get back on track this week against a solid Titan D. Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET

Saints @ Falcons(-9.5) – Joe Horn made it clear two weeks ago that the Saints weren’t dead yet. Thanks for clearing that up last week guys. All I needed was a 34-13 beating in New Orleans to make things a little more visible. Regardless, Aaron Brooks has gotten the short end of the stick against his cousin. Vick has outplayed, and more importantly beaten Aaron on a number of occasions. Vick, T. J. Ducket, and Warrick Dunn should run all over the Saints, everyone else does. Brooks and crew, who find it more convenient to step up when things no longer matter, will be tempted to play well in Atlanta. But temptation is one thing, actually stepping up and beating a much better Falcon team is another. Deuce McAllister, who has been average or less all year, will find little room to roam against a tough Atlanta rush defense. The Saints are unpredictable, but bad enough for a lopsided defeat against Atlanta.
Game Date: 11/28/04 16:05 ET

Jets(-3) @ Arizona – The Jets are a good team, with or without Chad Pennington. The Cards lost to The Panthers 35-10, which means they aren’t as competitive as earlier in the year. The Jets will feed Curtis Martin the ball. Curtis skipped past the 1000-yard mark last week. What a ball player! This spread baffles me, it really does. With a stubborn, good defense, and a solid offense, the Jets should win without trouble. Game Date: 11/28/04 16:15 ET

Bills @ Seahawks(-5) – The Hawks have been playing lackadaisical football. The Bills have won two of their last three, no slouches either. They beat the Jets three weeks ago, and the Rams last week. The Hawks just slipped by Miami, and have looked nothing like the Super Bowl contender I thought they would be this year. But, times change. This is the weekend the Hawks pick it up. Jerry Rice is starting, which is always great. Hasselbeck should be back this week. I’m thinking the week off helped him a little. Shaun Alexander continues to lead the league in rushing. Props to Drew though. I give him a hard time; mainly because he’s the slowest man on the face of the earth, but he put up 3 TD’s last week in a big win (every time they win, Dallas’ draft pick gets worse and worse). This week shouldn’t end up with a W in the win column for Buffalo. The Hawks will be back! Game Date: 11/28/04 16:15 ET

Raiders @ Denver(-11) – The Raiders had a big performance last week, but lost again. Denver slaughtered the Saints by giving the ball to Reuben Droughns time and time again. The Raiders are a terrible run-stopping unit. Look for Droughns to get upwards of 200 yards against Oakland. Anytime running comes easy, Denver glides to victory, especially in Denver. Oakland has little chance to do anything worthwhile in this one. Denver’s D was tough last week. They will be good here too. Game Date: 11/28/04 20:35 ET

Rams @ Packers(-6) – The Pack snuck past a resilient Texan team last week. But they got the Victory. The Rams… well Drew Bledsoe played a hand in their defeat. I don’t know if it had anything to do with his 3 rushes for -2 yards, but I’m willing to guess the Rams game planned against his swift feet. The Rams will get beat again this week playing too far from home. Green Bay is no turf field. The Rams are a tough bunch to figure out. They’ve lost to Buffalo and Miami. (You were wondering who gave Miami a win weren’t you?) But, they’ve beat good teams as well. This week, they’ll lose. I’m thinking big. Brett is at the top of his game, which is great to see. His receivers have been fantastic. The Packer D is starting to play well, which bodes well for their playoff hopes. Green Bay, no problem.
Game Date: 11/29/04 21:05 ET

Miami @ San Francisco – Pick em! This one comes down to a coin toss and I’ll take tails… 49ers it is! Game Date: 11/28/04 16:15 ET

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Lucky Lester

NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 11

As you well know, I was 6-8 last week putting me dead even at
68-68-5 for the season. I made some good bets, and some bets that didn’t turn out so well. Another week, another set of predictions. This boat continues to sail. We’re back to a league without bye weeks, which means… More games to win!SUPER DUPER PICKS Week 11
Chargers(-4) @ Raiders – This is my game of the week. That doesn’t always mean good things, but this one looks like a no-brainer. The Chargers have looked like a contender week in and week out. The Raiders have looked like a team without a go-to-guy, and without leadership. Drew Brees has been awesome, and there’s no reason that should stop this week against one of the leagues worst defenses. Brees has been on fire, and with the health of Ladainian Tomlinson getting better and better, he should have tons of open field to work with. Tomlinson should be big, but Brees will shred the Raider D. Four points is nothing in this one. Game Date: 11/21/04 16:05 ET

Falcons(-2.5) @ Giants – The Giants are without Michael Strahand, and are starting rookie Eli Manning. That should be enough to take the 7-2 Falcons right there. But, there is more. Aside from the game against The Chiefs in week 7, the Falcons D has stymied opposing rushers. If all The Giants have going for them is Tiki Barbar, what should happen this week? Obviously, with the benching of Warner, The Giants have decided that Eli is the future, and if the now has to suffer, then so be it. It’s either that, or they are real jealous of what Big Ben has done for his team in Pittsburgh, and want to give their rookie a shot to do the same. Eli should have trouble against Atlanta. The NY D should have trouble against Vick. This is also a no-brainer.
Game Date: 11/21/04 16:15 ET

Steelers(-4) @ Bengals – The Steelers are much better than the Bengals. They have an offense that can beat you in multiple ways, and a defense that can shut any team down. Big Ben has gone 7-0 in his first 7 starts. He hasn’t been perfect, but he is in an offense where he doesn’t have to throw 30 times to win. He just gets the job done week after week and has proven to be a leader. I expect Roethlisberger to air it out against the Bengals who will try to load up against the run. Then watch Bettis pound his way through a sub par run defense anyway. The Bengals have done all right of late, winning two in a row. But, the Cowboys and the Redskins aren’t the Steelers, lets make that clear right now. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Packers(-3) @ Texans – I’ve been taking The Texans all year. I don’t know if they’ve convinced me to go with someone else, lately, or if Brett Favre is just playing too good. Either way, I’m taking the Packers. Brett and Ahman have looked like a couple of Super Heroes in recent weeks, and David Carr has looked a lot like the rookie he was three years ago. There is always a chance for an upset here, but three points is too close not to take the Packers. The Pack broke my balls last week, but a win this week will at least pay for the doctor bills. Game Date: 11/21/04 20:35 ET

Patriots(-3) @ Chiefs – The Patriots defense isn’t The Saints defense. Derrick Blaylock will find that out this Sunday. The Chiefs will also realize that Derrick Blaylock is no Priest Holmes. He was damn good last week, but like I said, those were The Saints. Even against The Saints, and with over 200 yards of offense from Blaylock, the Chiefs still couldn’t win. I don’t know what makes anybody think they’ll stay in a game with a championship team like The Pats. I sure don’t. Take the Patriots here. They should obliterate an inferior defense.
Game Date: 11/22/04 21:05 ET

Lucky Lester’s Picks For Week Eleven

Redskins @ Eagles(-10.5) – The Redskins against anybody right now would look good if you took the anybody. I’ve got to be honest, if the Eagles were favored by 20 in this one, I would have a hell of a time going with The Skins. They are horrible offensively. Although they play tough on the other side of the ball, their offense gives up too much to ever give the D a chance. The Eagles are too good and The Redskins are too bad to go any other way with this game. 10.5 points is a lot, but the game is in Philly. They are at least that much better then the Redskins. Game Date: 11/21/04 16:15 ET

Rams(-1.5) @ Bills – The Rams took the W against the Seahawks last week. Although they are bad away from the fast turf in St. Louis, and have been known to be off and on, they are still much better than The Bills. Buffalo was shown up by The Patriots last week, when Cory Dillon rushed for 144 yards against them. Drew Bledsoe got the hook late, but this week it could be early. I’m rooting for The Bills here, not because I like them, but because they are giving their #1 draft pick to the Cowboys next year. With that said, I don’t give them an honest chance this weekend. They are bad, and The Rams are decent, at least. I predict a Rams victory. I also predict a JP Losman sighting early. I also predict Losman will gain more rushing yards than Bledsoe has in his career. I’m not sure how many yards that is, but if it’s more than 40 I’d be flabbergasted!
Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Cowboys@ Ravens(- 8) – We all know how I feel about The Cowboys, but I’m not sure The Ravens can handle the 8 point spread. Then I realize that even Kyle Boller will have a field day against the Cowboy’s beleaguered secondary. Couple that with an angry Jamal Lewis and, hey, the Ravens should actually move the ball this week. Even more lopsided is the prospect of Vinnie Testaverde and Eddie George coping with the lethal Raven defense in Baltimore. Bill Parcells has aged visibly trying to coach this “stupid” Cowboy team. Don’t expect them to get smart this week against the Ravens.
Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Jets(even) @ Browns – The Jets showed that they can perform last week against a tough Ravens team. Their D was tight, holding Jamal Lewis to 70 yards on 30 rushes. They also held Kyle Boller to low numbers… okay, okay, who cares about that last one, but they were tough. Quincy Carter let it be known that he is no slouch. He can handle the Jets while Pennington is out, especially with Curtis Martin in the backfield. Curtis ran for 110 yards last week against the Ravens. He’s a stud! The Browns should help the Jets end their slide. NY is the better team here. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Lions @ Vikings(-7.5) – The Vikings have had trouble winning ball games lately, but they’ve been in every one besides the Giants game in week 8. The Lions had a terrible game last week, and if it weren’t for punt returns they wouldn’t have produced a touchdown. They also lost to the Redskins two weeks ago, and the Cowboys the week before that. I can’t see them playing tight with a Vikings team that has something to prove this week. The Lions are still a year away, and the Vikings should demonstrate that to them on Sunday. Culpepper will win without Moss this week, and it should be by a large margin. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Colts(-7.5) @ Bears – The Colts stuck it to The Texans last week. But where has Marvin Harrison gone? He had 22 yards last week, for God’s sake. Those aren’t numbers a number one receiver gets, (unless you’re David Terrell), and especially not receivers who have been the best in the league for the last three years. Look for Peyton to utilize Marvin a little more against The Bears this week. I’d bet he posts more touchdowns than the Bears manage as a team. The Bears can’t ride Craig Krenzel another week. They will lose this week, and I’m guessing the game is a laugher. If The Bears win this game, I will be tempted to scream at Grandma! Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

49ers @ Buccaneers(-8) – I’ve said the Buccaneers aren’t good enough to be 7 point favorites against anybody… but I forgot about the Niners. The Bucs should shred a defense that has only gotten worse as the season has progressed. Neither Tim Rattay nor Ken Dorsey (especially not Ken Dorsey) should be able to do jack against the Bucs D that still brings it on Sunday. The Bucs got beat by a good Falcons team last week, but should find life easier in week 11. Pittman will be back to gaining big yards, and Griese (yes Brian Griese) will be tossing the pigskin to rookie Mark Clayton.
Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Broncos(-4) @ Saints – The Broncos beat the crap out of Houston before their bye week. Although they have been inconsistent at times this season, Denver should be able to take advantage of quite possibly the worst defense in football. (That counts college) The Saints gave up 225 yards of offense to a backup running back last week. Reuben Droughns should rush for upwards of 175 yards in week 11. Jake Plummer will finally have a good game on the road. The Saints, well, my guess is they underachieve, disappoint fans, and make plans to do the same thing again next year. But hey… I’m only going by their history. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Dolphins @ Seahawks(-10) – Last week, The Seahawks looked as bad as they have looked in years. Hasselbeck brought me back to the days when I was asking why Holmgren brought him to Seattle in the first place. Last year he was great near the end, and almost beat a good Green Bay team in the playoffs. He was oozing with confidence, and leading his team. This year, at least lately, has been a little different. He has looked pathetic. My thinking is, he can only go up from here. He’s a competitor, and he’s playing against the definition of a lost team. Miami’s defense is horrid against the run, which will allow the leagues leading rusher, Shaun Alexander, to be the man on Sunday. This will only help Matt and The Hawks. Look for a winning streak to start on Sunday. Game Date: 11/21/04 16:05 ET

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (no line) – Last week against The Bears, Tennessee gave up virtually nothing as far as yardage is concerned. Keith Bullock said himself, “The defense only gave up 3 points.” That wasn’t all. They held Craig Krenzel to a 17 quarterback rating. They also limited The Bears to only 160 yards of total offense. But, they still found a way to lose. (An overtime safety… ouch) So, with this in mind, and the fact that Jacksonville always seems to find a way to win, I have to take The Jags. Fred Taylor looked awesome last week, and David Garrard looked good as well. The Titans have found ways to lose all season; I see that trend continuing on Sunday.
Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET

Arizona (no line) @ Carolina – Carolina finally got a win last week. It was against a pathetic 49er squad, but it was a win. I guess someone has to win those games. Arizona has played pretty well all season. By giving the ball to “The Emmitt Smith” they have gotten some W’s and with a late season surge could stumble into the playoffs. Anquan Boldin is back, and things are looking pretty good. They are 4-5, and look tough under Dennis Green. Carolina has no running back, their top receiver is out, their o-line is depleted, and their defense is only a splinter of the solid unit they were a year ago. Look for Arizona to squeak this one out. Game Date: 11/21/04 13:00 ET
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Good Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester

NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 10

Lucky went 7-7 last week with his picks in as chaotic an NFL season as I have ever seen. My record for the year so far is 62-60-5. This week is winning time and I plan on putting up big numbers to set the proper trend for the second half of the season.Lucky Lester’s Week 10 Picks
Baltimore(-1.5) @ Jets – The Ravens have looked solid in recent losses and wins. Jamal Lewis is back, showing his importance last week by scoring a decisive touchdown in the 4th. Chad Pennington is out for at least one week. That doesn’t make life easier against the toughest defense in the land. Quincy Carter, not known for his accuracy, will find quite the challenge ahead of him this week against Baltimore. The Jets will rely heavily on Curtis Martin. The Ravens will force Quincy Carter to win the game for the Jets. As much as I love to see Ex-Cowboys succeed, I don’t see it happening for Quincy in week 10. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Detroit(+3) @ Jacksonville – Byron Leftwhich is out with an injury. He leaves his Jaguar team in the hands of David Gerrard. Truly, the games outcome lies at the feet of Fred Taylor. Detroit will keep all of their attention on Fred. Gerrard isn’t the passing threat Byron is by any means. Joey Harrington will do his best to find Roy Williams against the average secondary in Jacksonville. The Jaguar D-Line will shutdown the Lion’s pathetic rushing attack, but will struggle against Harrington. For the first time since week three last year, Byron Leftwhich will sit. This doesn’t bode well for a Jaguar team that finds themselves smack dab in the middle of a tough playoff race.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Kansas City (-5) @ New Orleans – I’ll take the Chiefs regardless of the spread, with or without their holy man. Priest is doubtful, so let’s assume he doesn’t play. The Saints continue to be a disappointment, no matter who plays for them. They have a stud running back in Deuce McAllister, but he has only stumbled to 100 yards in one game this year. (102 yards vs Bucs week 5) He is only averaging a Ron Daynish 3.5 yards per carry, with a long run of, brace yourself… 16 yards! Aaron Brooks continues to hold the ball too long and continually make poor decisions. Donte Stallworth hasn’t shown near the promise of his rookie campaign, and the defense is still horrible. Kansas City may be without the leagues most feared offensive player, but Derrick Blaylock has shown he can get the job done (see Atlanta game log two weeks ago). Not t hat it matters. The Saints couldn’t stop Drew Bledsoe in an old school Nebraskan option attack.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Seattle (even) @ St. Louis – Seattle is the better team. They will come to play in Saint Louis, which will hopefully be a good sign for Seahawk fans. The Rams are much better at home, but will stumble this week against Seattle. The Rams are in the perfect image of Dr. Jekyl and Miss Hyde. One week they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and the next week they get kicked around by the powerful Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins! They are never exciting to bet for, often leaving you wondering what the hell happened. Take Seattle here, Shaun Alexander will continue his superb season, rushing all over an average St. Louis Defense. Hasselbeck will step up as well.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Cincinnati(+3) @ Washington – Portis should shellac the Bengals rush defense, but Brunell and the Skin’s horrendous passing game will end Washington’s chances in a hurry. Since Gibbs came in, the Redskins have been overrated every week. Each time I see the Redskins spread, I am stunned. Maybe, I miss all the good things the Redskins do, but they seem just as bad as their record, if not worse. The Bengals have looked better of late, feeding the ball to Rudi Johnson and letting Carson Palmer catch defenses of guard with the long ball. If they do that against the Skins, they will win outright.
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET

Minnesota @ Green Bay(-4) – Green Bay always has a hell of a time stopping Randy Moss. Ask any Packer Die Hard, and they will tell you how much they hate number 84. Unfortunately for the Vikings, Randy has been ruled out for this Sunday’s game. Brett Favre should feast on the Mossless Vikings by leading his Packers to an old fashioned dominate performance in Lambeu. Daunte Culpepper has had a tough time without his partner in crime. Expect more of the same against an average but maturing Packer secondary. Ahman Green will get the ball plenty, which is a good sign for Packer fans, and me. I’m taking Green Bay. Game Date: 11/14/04 16:15 ET

Buffalo(+8)@ New England – 8 points is to many for a game that will match two of the top defenses in the league. The Patriots get more credit, because their team is flat out better. But don’t ignore Buffalo. Their young D has been up to the challenge this year, doing their best to make up for their poor offense. New England should win this game, but Buffalo will make it close. It doesn’t hurt that the Patriots often seem to play to the level of their opponents. Buffalo running back Willis McGahee has rushed for at least a C-note in every game he has started. Game Date: 11/14/04 20:35 ET

Chicago @ Tennessee(even) – Yikes. I’ve got to take, Chica… nope can’t do it! Krenzel can’t win three straight, it’s just not possible. But can I take the Titans lead by William Volek? Okay, I guess I have to make sacrifices. I don’t want to even hear about this game come Sunday. But if I have to pick, I’ll take Chris Brown’s team. Brown has rushed for over 100 yards in 5 games this year. (145+ in 3) Brown is averaging an eyelash below 5 yards a carry, doing his best work against poor run defenses… like The Bears. I can only hope this game marks the return of Steve McNair, but it’s not looking so good. Take the Titans at home in a game you pray is not carried in your area!
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Houston(+9) @ Indianapolis – Two good offenses, one bad defense. Indianapolis will have a grand spread to dig out of. Although Houston looked pretty bad against the real Denver Broncos last week, I think they have a good chance to win against the Colts. Indianapolis hasn’t played like a 9-point favorite in the last 5 weeks. Last week, Peyton threw 5 touchdowns, Edgerrin James rushed for over 120 yards, and The Colts still barely snuck by a struggling Vikings squad. David Carr will find holes the size of Texas against a terrible Colt Defense. Carr also has the option to just hand the ball to his running back Davis. Either way, the Texans have a decent defense to match their good offense, making them my upset pick of the week.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Pittsburgh(-3.5) @ Cleveland – Wouldn’t it be too perfect if the Steelers, after ruining two perfect seasons, lost to the Browns? It could happen. But I won’t pick it. Steeler D is too good to bet against, and the Browns? They are up and down with the best of them. When it comes down to it, I just think the Steelers are flat out better than either the Patriots or the Eagles. Everyone can say what they want about flukes, and David vs. Goliath and all that business. But Pitt has a very good defense and a rushing attack that is second to none. I’ll take Big Ben to continue his phenomenal rookie season, leading his team, and beating the Browns in Cleveland.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta(-3.5) – Atlanta should have no problem. The Bucs won’t be able to run this week against the stout run defense in Atlanta. They won’t be able to throw either. In fact, they won’t be able to do any of the things they did against the Chiefs D last week. Mike Vick, who looked real good a week ago, looks to continue his growth in the West Coast Offense. With two weeks to prepare, the Falcons are my hands down favorite against the Bucs.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET

Carolina(even) @ San Francisco – Carolina. They’re bound to win one sooner or later, so why not against the Niners, who should not win one ever again. Kevan Barlow could be the biggest disappointment this year for fantasy buffs. I don’t blame him; he’s got defenses breathing down his throat every snap. With Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey running the show, he’s been hard pressed to find any room to roam. Carolina is bad, but they still have guys who remember how to win, giving them a big advantage in San Francisco.
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET

NY Giants(-2) @ Arizona – The Giants should snap out of their slump a week after a loss to Chicago. Arizona hasn’t been horrible, but the Giants have a solid playoff chance, something the Cardinals threw out the window when Anquan Boldin went down in the preseason. Tiki Barbar has been amazing, holding on to the ball, and sprinting to daylight at every opportunity. He should continue his great season with a couple touchdowns in Arizona. (I’m secretly wishing for Emmitt Smith to rush for 300 yards in this one. Couldn’t Dallas use him right now! Ha Ha) Game Date: 11/14/04 16:15 ET

Philadelphia(-6.5) @ Dallas – The Eagles should trounce a Dallas team that is finally playing down to it’s talent level. (3-5) The Eagles looked like a skeleton of their dominating selves last week against The Steelers. They will get back to their roots against a rueful Dallas Defense, and a generous Offense. On Monday Night Football, I can see a vision… Dallas looks terrible again; I have a smile that stretches as far as that stupid gap in The Cowboy’s roof. Bill Parcels is caught crying on the sidelines… with Jerry Jones giving him a hug… But in the end, the Cowboys draft pick just gets better and better. Hopefully they pick a lemon or two. Game Date: 11/15/04 21:05 ET
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Lucky Lester

NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 9

Some terrible things happened since last Saturday. I won’t even begin to mention the non-football related stuff, as I am sure you don’t want to hear about Grandma again! As far as football is concerned, well it was a tough week to say the least with unLucky Lester going 4-8.Like the Packers start to this year; I too am in a slump that I never thought possible! But hopefully, like The Pack, I can pull myself up from the curb and jump-start my season with a Super Sunday for the first week of November. Here’s to the hopes of a predictable Sunday. Time to suck it up and bolster my now 55-53-5 record for the season.

Week 9 SUPER PICKS
Texans(+6.5) @ Broncos – The Texans have only proven they can play with the best teams in the NFL, nearly beating the Vikings, and spanking the Jaguars a week ago. The Broncos have taken two losses in a row, and have only managed to cover a couple times this year. With these two things ringing in my ears, I can’t even imagine why Denver is favored by nearly a touchdown. What is it? The air in Mile High makes it impossible for away teams? Or maybe all the close games the Texans have played, plus their winning record are just flukes? I think not. David Carr has done exactly what I predicted this year, and shown why he was a number one draft pick. Andre Johnson has been fantastic as Carr’s number one guy, and Dominic Davis is healthy for the first time in weeks. I’ve been wrong lately, and maybe the Broncos will find a way to pull this one off, but lets get real, 6.5-point favorites? That’s absurd. Game Date: 11/07/04 16:15 ET

Patriots(-2) @ Rams – The Rams showed two weeks ago that they don’t belong on the field with top teams. They lost to the Dolphins for God’s sake. The inconsistency and inexcusable mistakes that seem to embody the Rams team make it impossible for me to take them here. The Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league. They still have a quarterback that is a proven leader and an amazingly accurate passer. They also have one of the best coaches, if not the best coach in football. Belichick won’t let the end of his teams winning streak affect their play against an inferior Rams team this Sunday. The Rams are coming off a bye week, having two weeks to prepare for New England, but I don’t see that deciding the fate of the Patriots. Game Date: 11/07/04 16:15 ET

Jets(-3) @ Bills – Okay, so the Bills finally scored more than a single offensive touchdown against a team that wasn’t Miami. So what? The Bills only beat the Cardinals. Sure, sure, I was wrong about that game. But I am saying right now, like a much more renowned person before me, that I guarantee a Jet victory on Sunday. Yes, yes, you’ve heard it before, but there is no way the Bills… the terrible Bills, should cover a measly three point spread against the powerful Jets. Curtis Martin has been better than anyone thought, and the dismantling of a strong Miami defense last Monday Night is enough to convince me that this Jets squad is for real. The Bills stand as merely a speed bump in New York’s road to the post-season. Don’t let one week fool you, the Bills are just as good as their record.
Game Date: 11/07/04 13:00 ET

Chiefs(+1) @ Buccaneers – Priest Holmes is playing the best I’ve seen him play, and he’s been the best running back in the league for the last two or three years. Even Ray Lewis has been quoted saying there isn’t a running back like Priest. If Ray is throwing out compliments to an offensive player, you know he’s got to be great. The Buc’s haven’t done anything special, only managing to beat sub par teams. The Chiefs are back in the playoff hunt, and I just don’t see them taking a step back against a much lesser Tampa Bay team that has played better of late. Their defense is always strong, but I don’t see Tampa Bay making it past 7 wins this season. The Chiefs are back on track and it’s going to take more that an average Tampa Bay team to derail the Kansas City Train.
Game Date: 11/07/04 13:00 ET

Lucky Lester’s Picks For Week Nine

Eagles @ Steelers(even) – I have to go with the Steelers here. They finally made my prediction of the end of New England’s win streak come true, and I can only bet they’ll do the same thing to an undefeated Eagles team. The Steeler D is much better than advertised, just ask Tom Brady. Joey Porter is back to his old self, sacking Brady three times in week 8, while causing two fumbles. Duce Staley will do his best to thump an Eagle team that showed no appreciation for his abilities this off-season, as well as last year. Duce has done a lot for a Pittsburgh team that has as much firepower on offense as they’ve ever had. Hines Ward is a great receiver, and the strong arm of rookie Ben Roethlisberger has energized super talented Plexico Burress. With Duce in the backfield and Jerome Bettis behind him, the Steelers should sock it to an Eagle defensive line that has trouble stopping the run. The Eagles are good, but with Roethlisberger getting a chance to end two different undefeated records in consecutive weeks as a rookie, it only seems proper to take the Steelers. Game Date: 11/07/04 13:00 ET

Redskins @ Lions(-3) – I’ve decided that +3 is something odds makers give to an away team that in their minds, is equal to the home team. In this case, they either are crazy or, they know something I don’t. The Lions for starters, are better at home and maybe even more importantly, are better than the Redskins straight-up. The Redskins have one thing going for them on offense and that’s Clinton Portis. The problem is even he can’t do well because the rest of the offense is so bad. The Lions might not be able to stop Portis from scoring, but what they can do is stop the rest of the Redskins. Roy Williams is supposedly suiting up for this game. If he does the Lions chances get a lot better. I can’t take the Redskins until they prove to me they can move the ball in other ways then hoping Portis breaks one. Game Date: 11/07/04 13:00 ET

Raiders(+7) @ Panthers – While both of these teams have managed to disappoint, I can’t imagine the Panthers playing a team poor enough to warrant them giving 7 points. The Raiders are bad, don’t get me wrong, but the Panthers are equally pathetic. They gave up nearly 200 yards to Shaun Alexander last week, and that was after Mike Holmgren announced that Alexander was going to carry the ball often. He told them what they were going to do and the Panthers still couldn’t slow Alexander down. Taking the Raiders has made me realize how far the Panthers have fallen from their Super Bowl runner up performance less than a year ago. Game Date: 11/07/04 13:00 ET

Cardinals(+3) @ Miami – The Dolphins are pretty bad. That’s it. They lost another key player to injury. I can’t imagine their confidence has grown in the wake of Junior Seau’s season ending injury. With Ricky Williams trying his damnedest to work out some way that he doesn’t have to pay the Dolphins back all the money he owes them, the only thing the Dolphins should be favored to win is a court case. If you’re a Miami fan look at the bright side, at least the Dolphins will guarantee a number 1,2 or 3 draft pick. The Cardinals slipped last week, but look to get back to playing tough defense against one of the worst offenses the NFL has to offer.
Game Date: 11/07/04 13:00 ET

Bears @ Giants(-9) – The Giants dismantled a decent Lions team last week, and the Bears skipped past possibly the leagues worst team, the 49ers. The Giants are much better than a Bears team led by Craig Krenzel. Just look at the spread and you could figure that out. What you might not know is that Tiki Barber has been amazing this year, running all over any opponent the Giants have faced. Another small fact you might not know, the Bears gave up 170+ yards to Clinton Portis earlier this year. Tiki will plow his way into the end zone with ease. The Bears will be forced to scramble, throwing too much , especially with Krenzel at the helm. It will be to easy for the Giants to run, and when Tiki has been given the green light this year, good things have happened for New York.
Game Date: 11/07/04 16:05 ET

Seahawks(-7) @ 49ers – Ken Dorsey is behind the helm again for a Niners team that should be begging for Jeff Garcia to come back. The Niners offense hasn’t looked this bad since… since… well since the West Coast was invented. Dennis Erickson was offered this job as a joke to see how bad the 49er front office could make him look. He’s tried valiantly but lets be honest, this is a lose, lose situation. They lose all the time, and it looks like it’s at least a little bit his fault. The Seahawks haven’t been the team I thought they’d be, but even at their slumping stage, a touchdown should be easy to make up against a porous Niner D. Game Date: 11/07/04 16:05 ET

Saints @ Chargers(-6.5) – If I was told that I would have been taking this bet before the season started, I would have laughed in whoever’s crazy face those ridiculous words had spilled from. But, the NFL is a crazy place and this game contains two of the most unbelievable teams the league has. The Chargers are 4-3 and actually looking pretty good under the leadership of Drew Brees and LaDainian Tomlinson. Keenan McCardell brings a much-needed lift at the receiver position instantly taking pressure off the sensational Antonio Gates. The Saints, on the other hand, have only amazed me week after week with how inept they are. They aren’t the worse team in the league but with their talent level I’d think they’d be near the top of their league. Yet they manage to lose week after week. Like I said, both teams surprise me equally. The Saints have shown they can compete offensively with any team. The Chargers have shown they can just flat out compete with anybody, on both sides of the ball. At -6.5 it’s a tough bet, but it looks better than the Saints at +6.5.
Game Date: 11/07/04 16:05 ET

Cowboys @ Bengals(even) – I like the Bengals at home giving no points to a Cowboy squad that is searching to find an identity. On offense, the Cowboys cannot effectively run the ball and has been decimated by injuries at wide receiver. Defensively, they are a far cry from last years top rated unit. The Bengals are inconsistent but should prevail against this depleted Cowboy bunch.
Game Date: 11/07/04 13:00 ET

Browns @ Ravens(-6) – The Ravens got their asses handed to them in week one when they wondered into Cleveland expecting to dominate the Browns. But the Browns proved to be more than the Ravens had expected. Jamal Lewis, who rushed for 500 yards in two games last year, got stymied by a defense that was ready for him. Well, the way I see it, Jamal has a lot of yards to gain to get 500. I imagine he’ll get a big chunk of them in week nine, as he comes off his 2 game suspension. The Ravens missed their offensive leader and he will look to make it up to them in a big performance at home on Sunday. The Browns are coming off a bye week after barely getting beat by the Eagles two weeks ago. The Ravens got beat 15-10 by the Eagles last week. Jamal Lewis will prove to be the difference in this game, augmented by the Ravens playing at home. My bet is with Ray Lewis this week. Game Date: 11/07/04 20:35 ET

Vikings @ Colts(-6) – I’d take the over in this game. But, if I had to take a winner I’d take Peyton and his Colts. The Vikings have struggled without Randy Moss and it looks like Moss might sit this week. Even if he doesn’t, the Colts have more to lose if they fail to beat Minnesota this Monday Night. The Colts find themselves in third place in their division after a week 8 loss to the Chiefs where their defense looked horrendous. Tony Dungy should really get after his defensive squad this week, after they flat out embarrassed him last week. Dungy, known for his defensive brilliance, has found it tough to build a defensive stopper in Indianapolis. This week the Colts will do the unthinkable and hold Daunte Culpepper and his Vikings below season averages, while their offense scores at will against a pretty poor defense in their own right. Take the Colts here because they have more to lose. Game Date: 11/08/04 21:05 ET
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Good Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester