Tag Archives: Chris Johnson

Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks 03/01/2010 Prediction

Posted on by

Oh how the Hawks have fallen. Sheesh, I think Jim Mora should get an extension based on the damage he’s done. If he could turn these Hawks into the mush pile of confidence lacking maroons that they are playing like right now, well he can surely turn wine back into water, right? I mean, the guy has thrown multiple people under buses, has gotten very little out of a couple of the most talented guys in the league, and hasn’t changed the risk free offense that has been here for years. So, basically they aren’t consistent at all and they still don’t take any big chances – awesome. The best of no worlds.

no banners

But that’s not what’s important here, a little speedster by the name of Chris Johnson is the man of the day, and I have to be honest, I’m more excited to watch this game than any one of the “important playoff implication games”. Call me a fantasy football junky if you want, but I’m here to tell you, my interest in this game has no fantasy implications. Nope, I just like to see history.

Chris Johnson has a chance to rush for 2000 yards on the season, and even more amazingly, pass up Marshall Faulk’s all time single season yards from scrimmage record. That’s pretty cool. See, every year some teams go to the playoffs and some teams don’t. Some teams step up this time of year and some teams just pee down their collective legs – but that stuff always happens. What Chris Johnson is going to do in Seattle, well that will be the first time anybody’s ever done that – and that’s why I’m excited to see it. Do work Chris!

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks

Arses Five Favorites: Week 17 NFL Predictions

Posted on by

Well, I got back on the winning track in Week 16, and while it wasn’t a fantastic four win week like I’m always hoping for, 3-2 brings me to 17-13 during my six week run of free picks. The Falcons, Packers, and Patriots won and covered easily while the Dolphins just failed outright and the Eagles needed a late field goal to win by three. This week seems pretty easy to me. But I’m staying away from those meaningless games that some other people think are gimmies – listen, I know you play hard when you have everything to lose and if the Saints sit all their starters, it should be an easier game for Carolina – but it doesn’t always work out like that, and I’ll pick some games where I’m not relying on a good team to play back-ups. Final regular season week, and here we go, go, go…

no banners

Chicago (-3) @ Detroit: The Bears are an easy pick, so easy that it makes my stomach lurch a little bit – but hey, Vegas can’t be right all the time, right? Right. The Bears need this game, really. They are the only crappy team in the NFL that actually needs wins. Their 1st round pick isn’t theirs, see, they need this one.

The 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis: The Rams are beat up bad, and they aren’t good when healthy. I doubt Steven Jackson gets thrown out there against Patrick Willis and that Niner run D, and without him the Rams are hornless.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami: The Steelers are the better team, and they don’t need magic and religion to get into the playoffs – they need help, don’t get me wrong, but unlike Miami, they don’t need every single team in the NFL to lose on the same day. I see the Steelers, definitely a team that rides ups and downs, flying to their third straight win – but missing the playoffs anyway.

Ravens (-11) @ Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are brutal, and even the Ravens aging secondary should take advantage of that turnover prone passing attack. All the Raiders can do is run, and they can’t stop the run – that’s a bad combo when Baltimore walks into town.

Titans (-5) @ Seattle Seahawks: I can’t wait to see Chris Johnson out-gain the Seahawks on Sunday. The kid is going to go for 400 yards. There will be 12-15 Seahawks playing defense at one time, and he’ll still get his. The Titans should win easily, and Jim Mora should resign due to coaching how to quit.

Fantasy Focus: NFL Fantasy Football Week 14 Projections

Posted on by

Well, the fantasy playoffs are here, and never is there a time more important to get the rankings right. I’ve had a solid run with my starts and such, but I haven’t been winning too many of these in-house contests of late. I’m looking to turn that around, and I’ve used a lot of match-up advantage, high touch situations for my rankings and picks this week. Here’s the fantasy focus for Week 14’s NFL Action.

no banners

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Drew Brees – Drew should have a great day against Atlanta’s suspect pass defense.
2. Ray Rice – Ray and the Ravens really struggled last week, but that’s why I love him to have a big week.
3. Sidney Rice – I think Favre goes back to the guy he’s most comfortable with after a tough week.
4. Ben Roethlisberger – Ben threw for 400+ yards last time they Steelers saw the Browns… again?
5. Chris Johnson – Until he does something other than score easy fantasy points, I’ll try to keep him here.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Terrell Owens – People might lay off him after a down week, but everyone struggles against Revis.
2. Mike Sims-Walker – 5 of his 6 home games have been double digit fantasy production.
3. Thomas Jones – I think the Jets will run 45 times this week – Thomas will get about 25 of those.
4. Ricky Williams –The Jaguars are up and down, against the Dolphins rushing attack, I think down.
5. Percy Harvin –What can I say, I think the Vikigns throw more than they pass against Cincinnati.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –He’s still the best back in Seattle, and despite getting 1/3 the touches, he produced last week.
2. Michael Crabtree – Could be a big week for Crabtree, he’s been getting the targets, he’ll cash in soon.
3. Vince Young– He’s rated as the 25th QB in ESPN this week, I think he cuts that in half. At least.
4. Jamal Charles– He draws Buffalo this week, and he’s been solid, good combo start there.
5. Daunte Culpepper– The Ravens secondary isn’t awesome, and I’ll take a chance that Duante can still wing it with the best of them – go deep Calvin!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Matt Forte– Bad match-up against the Pack, in Week 1, the Pack weren’t quite figured out yet, and they still held Forte to 55 yards on 25 carries.
2. Steve Smith– Matt Moore isn’t better than Jake Delhomme, I can’t believe it. Sit him against the Pats.
3. Frank Gore – It’s going to kill me, but Mike Singletary’s offense has no identity – Gore gets no looks.
4. Eli Manning –I think Eli will struggle against the Eagles, every since Plax went bang, he’s struggled.
5. T.J. Houshmanzadeh– The Hawks need to throw this guy the ball, but they don’t do things right…

***You’re taking a chance on DeSean Jackson, Michael Turner, and DeAngelo Williams, but from what I hear, the first and the last are very likely, and Turner might practice Thursday. ***

no banners

[TABLE=102]
[TABLE=103]
[TABLE=104]
[TABLE=105]
[TABLE=106]

Fantasy Focus: Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings

Posted on by

Alright, it’s getting a little terrible. Josh has won 2 weeks in a row, and I received his fantasy rankings this week entitled, “The Three-peat Rankings” – Puke. Not only did I get dominated last week, I set an all time low for fantasy rankings on my own site, pulling home 4th in every single category. Heartache, pain, suffering – none of that, don’t worry – I’m just downright pissed off at my inability to see the entire board lately. But I’m destined to get back to my winning ways, so why not start this week? You’ve got to believe in your stuff, and confidence has never been an issue for me. Let the games begin! It’s about time someone else started winning Arse. If you three-peat, I’ll send you a present to the darkness!

no banners

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew– The Bills allow more yards and touchdowns to running backs than any other team in the NFL. Yep.
2. Chris Johnson – I do actually think the Texans D will play better this time around, but so what, CJ will still do work.
3. Adrian Peterson – Big Backs kill Hawks – it’s very similarly proven to E=MC2.
4. Peyton Manning – I can’t see a better QB option this week, the Ravens secondary should prepare for the worst.
5. Ray Rice– If the Ravens want to beat the Colts for the first time in 7 games, they better feed it to Ray.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Steve Smith (NYG) – The Giants SS is good to go this week, the Falcons secondary is porous.
2. Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall > Kansas City Chiefs.
3. DeSean Jackson – I’m loving DeSean against the Bears secondary. That kind of speed should torch them.
4. Ricky Williams –Ricky moves up from sleeper status because of Ronnie’s injury. I’d be starting him if I had him.
5. Sidney Rice –Tough to go against Rice right now, especially with Seattle in town.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett – I don’t care if the Hawks are headed up against Minnesota, this kid can find yards if he gets carries.
2. Beanie Wells – Last week I called his best week of the season, I’m going for 2 in a row.
3. Jeremy Maclin –The Bears will see a lot of passes this Sunday Night, Maclin, like Jackson, has that painful speed.
4. LeSean McCoy– McCoy has a good match-up against the Bears, a defensive front that isn’t as scary as they insist.
5. Fred Jackson– It’s a deep trick shot, for sure, but Fred should see his highest touch numbers since Lynch returned.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– He burned me in the 4th quarter last week, but I think I’m right this time.
2. Derrick Mason– The Pats killed the Colts secondary, but I think the Ravens run too much this week.
3. Jay Cutler – He has the talent to bust out any week, but the Eagles will feast on his mistakes if he plays like Jay Cutler.
4. Roy Williams – The Cowboys won’t have time to mess with the whole #1 receiver game, the Skins have a tough secondary.
5. Matthew Stafford– Don’t start a bad player because of a supposed good match-up, plus the Browns D is better than you think.

***No more Bye weeks, but don’t get caught starting old man Clinton Portis or older man Brian Westbrook – both are definitely out this week, and there’s other’s too! Mind the Doctor!!!

no banners

Week 11 Fantasy Rankings

[TABLE=68]
[TABLE=69]
[TABLE=70]
[TABLE=71]
[TABLE=72]


Fantasy Focus: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

Posted on by

Okay, so I’m a little butt-hurt after losing the crown to a non-family member last week, but then I started thinking, friends, good ones, they’re like family anyway – and as much as I believe that, and know that it’s true, it didn’t make me feel one ounce of better. Josh won last week, inching me here, sneaking past me there, and just finishing ahead of me in numerous areas. I don’t like the feeling and I don’t like losing to friends, it’s almost worst than losing to people I don’t know – shoot, it’s 10x worse than losing to people I don’t know.

no banners

Anyway, this week should see the title return to the rightful owner of pure fantasy genius. It’s an all RB Elite starts this week, I couldn’t pass it up with so many great match-ups. Consequently, there are 5 RBs there and not one of them is Adrian Peterson against Detroit. I justify that by saying that Detroit allows a lot more passing TDs than rushing scores, that the Vikings like to rest Peterson when up big against bad teams, and AP has just 2 100+ yard rushing games this year. But why do I feel like that’s going to come back to haunt me? Oh well. Here’s this week’s fantasy focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Ray Rice– I never thought I’d put Ray Rice as my number guy, but he’s been great.
2. Chris Johnson – I think this game will be closer than people predict, but CJ will kill.
3. Michael Turner – Atlanta’s back to doing what they do best, and Turner is solid.
4. DeAngelo Williams – The Falcons can’t stop him, but John Fox will try.
5. Thomas Jones– “@ Jacksonville” – that’s all I needed to see.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I think he has a big week in Pittsburgh, despite struggling last time.
2. Percy Harvin – I love they dynamic rookie going up against the TD giving Lions.
3. Pierre Thomas – Somebody has to carry 20+ times against the Rams, I pick PT.
4. Devin Hester – I don’t see the Bears running very successfully in San Fran.
5. Sidney Rice –He basically went undrafted, but he’s been too good to be a sleeper.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Reggie Bush – Face it, he’s down to sleeper status, but I think he’s worth a start.
2. Beanie Wells – Call it a feeling, but Beanie might have his best game as a pro.
3. Steve Breaston –Ta-tas likes to hurt the Hawks, even with Boldin in he’s worthy.
4. Mark Sanchez– He’ll be solid, and his running ability will accrue some points.
5. Ricky Williams – Ricky has been good this year, maybe he shouldn’t be considered a sleeper, but either way, he’s worth a flex spot against the Bucs defense.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– I might start him, but I won’t like it. I don’t see Addai running much.
2. Wes Welker– The Colts often do a good job on Wes ~ 7 catches for 40 yards I expect.
3. Matt Forte – You never know, but I think, and that’s good enough for me to sit him.
4. Mike Sims-Walker– I think D. Revis continues his work on big receivers.
5. Julius Jones– A nice game last week, but nothing for him in Arizona.

***One very small Bye for Week 10: don’t play Giants or Texans, they’re throwing a two team party in Vegas! Mind this little Gap!!!

no banners

Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

[TABLE=56]
[TABLE=57]
[TABLE=58]
[TABLE=59]
[TABLE=61]

Fantasy Focus Review: Week 8 Fantasy Football

Posted on by

This was a terrible fantasy week for me. Not only did I lose two huge divisional fantasy games by a total of 3 fantasy points, but my good picks performed pretty poorly while my bad picks did alright. It was a struggle. And then you have me finishing last in the fantasy picks amongst writers – I just want to turn in Week 8 and forget all about it. Kind of like the Redskins offense does every week. At least the fantasy crown stayed in la familia, despite a great QB and WR prediction day from Arsenault. But now I have Papa dogging my fantasy knowledge. Ugh. Here’s the review.

no banners

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – Despite throwing for 347 yards in Week 8, Joseph Addai was the only Colt with a TD pass. Manning finished 9th amongst QBs, but just 13 fantasy points. C-
2. Adrian Peterson – The Packers shut down AP last time out, I DOUBT that happens again. Not this time.
3. Drew Brees – Brees was 7th amongst QBs with 20 fantasy points, a nice day out of him. B
4. Steve Slaton– Ryan Moats numbers, you see them? That’s what Slaton would have had if not for fumble-itas. Slaton got benched after 1 carry and 1 catch. F
5. Chris Johnson– Best running back option in Week 8, best overall. This guy is a stud. A+

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Kyle Orton – The Ravens shut down the Broncos, definitely, Orton was the 21st ranked QB. F
2. Steve Smith – 13th wide receiver, he played well early. B+
3. Marshawn Lynch – 35th RB. Despite being up into the 4th, Lynch had just 9 carries. Buffalo is dumb. F
4. Steve Smith– 15th receiver this week, pretty solid output despite Giants’ struggles. B+
5. Brandon Jacobs – 21st RB, Jacobs had 87 rushing yards despite being way behind. He’s running well. C+

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – 6 grabs for 89 yards, Nate has had a very nice year, way better than Housh so far. B+
2. Eddie Royal – Eddie is open, ala T.J. Housh in Seattle – too bad nobody throws these guys the ball. F
3. Mike Bell – Just 2 fantasy points for Bell, there goes me reading Sean’s mind. F
4. Donnie Avery – 1 catch for 15 yards, I hate Marc Bulger. F
5. Beanie Wells – 41st RB. Good average, stupid play calling will screw a good day from a RB anytime. F

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Julius Jones – 56 rushing yards and 2 grabs for 32 receiving. Not terrible, not good. I expected less. C-
2. Thomas Jones – Thomas had a nice day for the Jets, 102 rushing yards and a 28 yard catch. 18th RB. D
3. Roy Williams – Roy had just 2 catches for 19 yards, but he took one into the end zone. Still, that gives him 3 catches for 35 yards over his last 2 starts. Gross. B
4. Matt Hasselbeck – Well I was wrong in a sense, Matt finished 6th amongst QBs, but that fantasy output didn’t represent the game, as Matt and the Hawks got kicked around. Still, this is fantasy, I was wrong. F
5. LeSean McCoy – McCoy’s 1 65 yard TD run was enough to bury this as a good sit-pick. It looked good for most of the game, but the kid is explosive, and that long run definitely counts. F

no banners

[TABLE=37]
[TABLE=38]
[TABLE=39]
[TABLE=40]
[TABLE=41]
[TABLE=42]

no banners

Who did we miss? Percy Harvin and Greg Jennings were both Top 5 performers and not one of us picked the rookie or Jennings despite a couple of us picking Favre and Rodgers. Interesting… As for running back absentees, how about Ryan Moats finishing 2nd in Week 8, you just can’t predict that business. Matt Forte finally made a Top 5 list, finishing 4th with 26 fantasy points against that burly Browns defense. Mark Sanchez, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, and Matt Hasselbeck finished 3, 4, 5, and 6 – and not a single one of us predicted one of those signal callers in a Top 5. Dustin Keller finished atop the TE rankings, while Kevin Boss, Brent Celek, and Spencer Havner (again) finish out the Top 5 at that position. Defensively, we all picked the Cardinals (final ranking 25th of 26 teams) but left out the Panthers (tied for 2nd with the Ravens). We also left out the Dolphins who rode two kick off return touchdowns to a huge defensive/special teams day in a win over the Jets. Kickers kicked, that’s all I remember there. Until next week!

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 3

Posted on by

Week 3 fantasy football is upon us, and here we are, dancing around some tough plays this coming weekend. The match-ups are in, the staff has been polled, and we have all the predicted rankings heading into Week 3. I’ve taken the top spot (Lucky Lester) each of the first two weeks, but it’s close, and I know I have some guys out to take my crown. Once again, I’ve listed my 4 levels of plays, elites, solids, sleepers, and no-nos, I hope they help. Josh, Papa, Red Red Ryan, and I have our rankings further down the page. I hope you enjoy it all!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – I don’t think the Texans can stop MJD, ala Chris Johnson last week.
2. Andre Johnson – That being said, I’m not so sure the Jaguars can stop the Texans either, I’ll take AJ.
3. Drew Brees – He has to come back to earth one of these days, dude can’t throw 72 touchdowns. Not this week.
4. Matt Schaub – Two weeks in a row at the top? You bet.
5. Brandon Jacobs – It’s been a slow start for the beast, enter the Buccaneers as unlucky opponent in Week 3.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Ray Rice– I think Ray will be the top scoring back on the Ravens team this week against Cleveland.
2. Ryan Grant – The Packers haven’t been dedicated to the run this year, I think that changes this week.
3. Larry Johnson– Questions surrounding Larry, I think he has a nice game this week.
4. Dwayne Bowe – Big nasty receiver going against the Eagles, and I think KC will be down – I like this pick.
5. Braylon Edwards – Drop a couple, catch a couple, he’ll have plenty of opportunities down early.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Mario Manningham – Yeah, I like what I saw, me and every other guy.
2. David Garrard – I’d take him a lot of weeks, should be real good against Houston.
3. Trent Edwards –Both teams should have lots of snaps and score lots of points. Even in a loss I like Trent.
4.Fred Jackson– If he’s a beast one more week, does he keep the starting job when Lynch comes back?
5. Jabar Gaffney – The Raiders will take away the top guys, but Gaffney should find room. Good sleeper pick.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai – The Cardinals are very tough against the run, shutting down two studs in Gore and MJD.
2. Cedric Benson – His style versus the Steelers is not a good match-up for his fantasy owners.
3. Willie Parker – I don’t know if Willie will have too many more big games, the Bengals are tough on the run.
4. Bernard Berrien – Is he even the #1 receiver anymore, either way, Nate Clements should shut him down.
5. Chris Johnson – Can you sit this guy? Probably not, but if you have other options I’d suggest it.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault	        Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Peyton Manning	1.Drew Brees
2.Tom Brady     	2.Aaron Rodgers 	2.Tom Brady     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Phillip Rivers 	3.Matt Schaub     	3.Drew Brees     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Aaron Rodgers   	4.Peyton Manning	4.David Garrard 	4.Tony Romo
5.Carson Palmer  	5.Trent Edwards 	5.Aaron Rodgers		5.Tom Brady
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Michael Turner	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew
2.Maurice Jones-Drew	2.Brandon Jacobs	2.Steve Slaton  	2.Brandon Jacobs
3.Adrian Peterson	3.Ronnie Brown  	3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Matt Forte		4.Matt Forte    	4.Fred Jackson  	4.Matt Forte
5.Clinton Portis	5.Steven Jackson	5.Clinton Portis  	5.Ryan Grant

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Randy Moss		1.Andre Johnson   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Andre Johnson
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne  	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Randy Moss
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith (NYG)    	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Greg Jennings		4.Andre Johnson 	4.Steve Smith (CAR)
5.Steve Smith (CAR)  	5.Santonio Holmes	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Jericho Cotchery

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Chris Cooley  	1.Jeremy Shockey	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Antonio Gates
2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.John Carlson  	2.Dallas Clark
3.John Carlson		3.Dustin Keller		3.Tony Gonzalez 	3.Jason Witten
4.Antonio Gates 	4.Dallas Clark  	4.Owen Daniels		4.Chris Cooley
5.Jason Witten   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Tony Gonzalez

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Bears 		1.Ravens
2.Redskins		2.Broncos       	2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Packers		3.Giants		3.Eagles		3.Broncos
4.Broncos		4.Bears  		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Vikings		5.Redskins		5.Redskins		5.Eagles

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 2

Posted on by

I’m back with my big belly, my bigger brain, and my even bigger… umm…. feet. My feet are huge for being a relatively short guy, size 12.5, that’s pretty big. What I hate more than anything is trying to jam into a 12 or flopping around like a clown in a 13. Plus, only a few shoes have 12.5 – regardless, I’ve found another thing to be angry about, and I’m going to talk about it now. Deciding to go receiver happy in one of my drafts has gotten me no where, and it’s not because my running backs have disappointed. I snagged Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez and look where that’s gotten me – no wins, one loss, damn! Lucky tries to tell me to hold tight, relax, you’ll be fine, but I can’t help but hate the fact that I got expensive receivers when I would have been happy as can be with guys like Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, Wes Welker, and Devin Hester… Okay, damn, I’m sick of complaining – damn receivers! lets answer some questions…

Cozmo in San Antonio asks, “Should I sell Adrian Peterson now or wait until Detroit? I have some holes at receiver and I’m pretty sure I could get Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Eddie Royal for AP all by himself. What should I do? Can I really live with myself trading AP?”

Honestly, I would probably make that trade, but I’m a value whore, and certainly think all three of those guys will have solid seasons. All three have very low value after week 1 (because of their low output to start the year), and right now nobody’s value is higher than APs. However, it probably depends on the rest of your roster. There’s no point to upgrade a little and end up dropping solid guys in the process. If you have decent receivers, you might want to stand pat with AP, he looks like a 2000 yard back, and there’s no doubt that kind of production will keep you in games. But if you do have a hole, like you say, AJ and CJ and a guy like Royal looks pretty good. As always, see if you can get more somewhere else. I’m not sure you could get too much more than that, but shoot, it doesn’t hurt to try. AP might have even more value after running into Detroit this next week, but then again, I’m not sure he could have more value than 180 yards and 3 scores…

Dennis in Alaska says, “Last week you told me I should start Eddie Royal over Hines Ward, what gives?”

That being said, I also told you to start Julius Jones over Chris Johnson, which would have made up for that Royal over Ward advice. I still think Royal will have a huge year, and would probably start him over Ward again, despite their Week 1 totals. You can’t get angry at the single piece of poor advice that I give you when I feed you good stuff until you’re belly limits the vision when you pee. You have to understand, this is sport, these guys can surprise even the best fantasy minds – but I’m guessing you didn’t start Julius over Chris, or you probably wouldn’t have written in with frustration.

Dennis in Alaska replies, “Touche. I listened to the bad advice and left the good advice on my bench. It would have been about even had I listened to both. Well played. Thanks for the free advice. On that note, do you start Chris, Julius, Thomas Jones, or Tim Hightower this week? I need two.

No problem, my  man, just doing work. I would start Chris against Houston, he should blow them up. I would leave Julius on the bench this week, the Niners are tough against the run, and he won’t catch too many balls out of the backfield. I would probably go with Thomas against the Patriots. I don’t think the Pats will be great against the run with Seymour in Oakland, and Mayo on the bench. TJ should get plenty of carries this weekend. Tim put up good numbers, but I bet he never catches that many passes again, plus Beanie looked like the better runner, and I imagine he’ll take carries away from Tim a little this week against a mediocre Jags defensive front. I still think Hightower is a solid play, I just like Jones more. Good luck, hopefully I get them both right this week!

Do I trade Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Ward for Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Ward is my #4 running back behind Maurice Jones Drew, Kevin Smith, and Clinton Portis and ahead of Jamal Lewis. Boldin would be my highest ranked receiver in front of Houshmandzadeh, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez. Deal or no deal?

Deal. I think Boldin will be a beast starting in probably Week 3, he might be a so-so play while healing from his hammy injury – however, it could also linger. I think it’s a good low risk play by you because when healthy Boldin is a Top 10 guy easily, and it’s not like Warner is a much lower play than Rodgers. You get some big upside while losing a time share running back and for this season probably lose nothing at quarterback. Kurt played poorly in Week 1, but I doubt that continues as long as he stays on the field. It’s not like Aaron Rogers has been the beacon of health in his career either. Take a chance, good upside for you there.

I’m out of here to write some receiver hate mail to all those fantasy guys that advised me to go WR late in the first round…. blast them!!!

Wing Man!: Not Every Superhero needs a Sidekick

Posted on by

History supports what I’m saying here, not always can the dynamic of two super personalities, amazing talents, wonderfully crafted names and/or awkwardly revealing spandex outfits, fit together like Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson, or even a more well-known duo, Batman and Robin (and even the last two heroes might find it tougher together nowadays)… In fact, if you look at the big picture, it becomes more and more evident that not every Super-Hero needs a Sidekick. In fact, most of the big name stars produce more box office fantasy potential all by themselves in their own little uniforms (As you can easily recognize that even Batman does his best movies sans his puffy feathered bird of a sidekick).

There are a few guys I’m looking at this year where a certain sidekick is digging into the main man’s cover-value, and even a couple more stars that are getting matched up with other stars – two superheroes do not always make a friendly team: Wolverine, Punisher, Spiderman, Captain America.  You have to remember, when a team gets better, a fantasy player doesn’t always improve.

Scrappy Doo basically crushed a very good cartoon of young crime fighters. Scooby was doing a fine job begging for Scooby Snacks, being a scaredy dog, and being his pot-head friend’s best bud. All Scrappy did was come in and steal some of the spotlight, and since everyone loves a puppy, soon he was getting too much attention. Suddenly, the drop off happened and Scooby and his friends have never quite recovered.

And what about Jimmy Olsen, Superman’s pal, one of the only guys to know Supe’s identity – well, all he did was get his buddy into trouble at every turn. Did Superman ever need Jimmy? I think not.

Wolverine vs. Punisher? Spiderman fighting Captain America? It’s amazing that a couple guys looking for the same thing (in both instances) could get into such a fiasco with each other – but it happens.

These things happen in the “fantasy world” and they also happen in fantasy football. This season there are some sidekicks ready to help the team all the while stomping out some fantasy fire of their own teammates. And while most of these guys play for wins and losses instead of statistical superiority – the truth of the matter is… You and I don’t. Not in fantasy football anyway. So which gridiron heroes will have their value cut down to size by the Scrappy Doo’s, Jimmy Olsen’s, Wondergirl’s and Aqualad’s of the National Football League? Follow along closely…

Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen

This seems like the easiest one around. Matt Cassel found a new home with a new offensive genius taking over in Kansas City. But what about Thigpen? What about the guy that dominated down the stretch? What about Tyler Thigpen? If you look back at last season’s stats, you will see two new teammates ranked 2nd and 3rd amongst quarterbacks during last season’s second half. That’s right, you guessed it, Tyler Thigpen is number 2 and Matt Cassell was number 3. That Top 5 list looks like this… Drew Brees, Thigpen, Cassel, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. So, while many people probably don’t even know who Tyler Thigpen is, as he was really only a super hero fantasy star to those that picked him up for a late run into the post season (yes, that was me in more than a couple instances), he was still a star. Thigpen was 3 points shy of Drew Brees during those 10 weeks, and Brees had a brilliant season. But Cassel has the job, and surely Thigpen will suffer most in this match up of free agent pick ups turned fantasy playoff super heroes of 2008 turned teammates of 2009. This season will mark the first time in history that this situation will ever have taken place. Two young quarterbacks with huge statistical seasons meet up on the same team the very next year. But it is what it is, and Matt Cassel will be crushing the fantasy relevance of his teammate, and higher rated fantasy performer of last year’s second half. The team has gotten better, but Thigpen has lost his way.

Jay Culter and Matt Forte

Both players became fantasy stars in 2008. Matt Forte did so in his rookie season for a Bears team that used him as their main weapon, finishing a win away from the playoffs. Forte was as consistent as fantasy stars get, putting up solid numbers week after week as the Bears gave him the ball early and often. Jay Cutler was Mike Shanahan’s little buddy, a coach in uniform, the son he always wanted. Jay got the green light to throw any ball he wanted any time, and while that made Cutler one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football, it also ended Splinter’s long run as the head coach in Denver. That led to Josh McDaniels getting the reigns for the Broncos, which led to Cutler having a fit when McD wanted his former QB, which led to bagels being just another way to get cream cheese to your face, which led to Jay Cutler getting traded for 2 first round picks, a couple more picks, and a 6 pack of Chicago’s best brew. That dysfunctional set of circumstantial dominoes led to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, two rising fantasy stars, to meet up in Chicago’s backfield. Well goodness me. But whose value is effected more? Well, I would imagine that both players have a slight hit in value, but both could see their efficiency ratings moving on up. Crazy how fantasy and actual football can be so different. Matt Forte is likely to see less 8 man fronts (if any), while Cutler is likely to see more open secondaries with defenses actually paying attention to the run game in his offense. But, Forte will get less carries, less catches, and likely less touchdowns in 2009. Jay Cutler will almost surely have less yardage, fewer touchdown passes, while continuing to throw interceptions this season with the Bears. But Forte will get more yards per carry while Cutler’s QB rating will likely rise. They may make a nice duo, two young guys with their entire comic book careers in front of them, but this year both will suffer in the fantsy realm, losing the numbers from their days as single stars.

Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White

After years of lacking a #1 receiver, the Falcons finally came through with the coming of age of Roddy White. And after years of stumbling around losing seasons without another true offensive threat, Tony Gonzalez was traded to a city of bright fantasy youngsters making a name for themselves in the NFC South. But who will be the star in this receiving situation? The young up and comer or the old school TE that can stake his claim as one of the best ever? Only I have the answer you’re looking for. Both should fail to match last year’s top notch numbers. Say what you want about Dwayne Bowe’s rise to stardom or Matt Ryan being better than the Chiefs’ no-name quarterback last season, but neither piece of information will convince me that Tony G is in a better fantasy situation than he was last season. Last year, Bowe was still just the 2nd fiddle in KC’s passing game, with the attention of opposing defenses collapsing around Tony. And he may be relatively unknown, but I already showed you that Tyler Thigpen was no joke going down the stretch, so stop belittling the guy. Plus, KC threw the ball a lot last year, which is how Tony got so much fantasy love. Likewise, Roddy White was the only real threat in the passing game last season, but the Falcons ran so dang much that defenses had to bite on the play action. Matt Ryan locked onto his number one guy, and reasonably so, White was a yardage gaining machine for the Falcons. Now both top flight receivers will see differences in 2009. Tony Gonzalez will find himself in an offense that runs the ball as much as they throw which should cut down on his chances to get anywhere close to last season’s targets. Not only that but Roddy White is one of the best young receivers in the league, one that 2nd year QB Matt Ryan made a living throwing to in 2008 – so a repeat of last year’s totals should be close to impossible. And for Roddy, you know the Falcons are still going to run a ton, and a great tight end is a quarterback’s best friend, and his notoriety as a receiving threat should have defenses paying more attention to him this season – so his targets will likely fall as well. The Falcons offense should be great, even better than last season’s surprising numbers, but these two super-heroes won’t win as often in fantasy circles.

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene

This is definitely a case similar to Scrappy Doo’s fuse lighting to the dynamite under Scooby’s career. Thomas Jones had his best season as a pro. If anyone gained value from Brett’s arm last season it was Jones. Thomas finished 5th amongst running backs in non-ppr leagues, making him one of the best fantasy values of 2008. But in comes the younger cuter puppy hero drafted by the Jets. (Actually, Shonn Greene is a beast of a kid and as far as looks go Thomas may have the girls gushing after his bulging biceps, but you get the picture). Still, already Shonn is getting rave reviews in Jets camp, and with a new coach in town there’s no real loyalty to last season’s production. If Coach Ryan learned anything from his time in Baltimore it was that the best player plays no matter if he’s getting paid like Willis McGahee or Le’Ron McClain. That might be just the ignition Greene needs to up-end the 31 year old Thomas Jones’ career. This could definitely be a case of the sidekick back-up unproven option stealing too much of the star’s light, and slowly eating into that profile he worked so hard to build. Drop Thomas in your rankings, yes, but don’t completely ignore the guy. I’ve seen him falling way too far in Fantasy Drafts, and there’s a good chance he’s still a productive piece of the Jets rushing attack.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White

Last season it was Chris Johnson eating into White’s numbers, but this season the roles may be reversed. I’ve noticed Chris Johnson getting lots of fantasy love on draft days. But LenDale is now a much slimmer and still powerful version of himself. Everyone expected Chris Johnson to continue his growing percentage of carries from last season. After starting pretty equal, he was definitely the horse the Titans tried to ride down the stretch. But this season could be a lot more even than people are ready to believe. LenDale has always had a knack for the end-zone with very athletic feet for a big powerful back. Coming into camp in the best shape of his life, running faster than ever, and apparently buying into everything more than ever before makes him a sneaky thief to Johnson’s carries. When you add the often forgotten fact that LenDale is smack dab in the midst of a contract season, he has even more to play for, a future contract and a starting gig (if the Titans don’t want to pay the man his money). So before you draft Chris Johnson with all his speed and excitement and all that man-love you have for him – remember, there’s a big bad touchdown thieving guy from USC that not only has something to prove, but money to earn in 2009. Chris should still be a nice player in 2009, he’s a great young back, but expecting even more impressive numbers in 2009 might disappoint you this season.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 16

Posted on by

You know the gig, so I’ll get right to the questions and answers… Enjoy… Congrats to those playing this week.

David writes in, “A couple quickies, Browns or 49ers, Keller or Z Miller? I need to pick between those… Thanks!”

That’s a good questions, but I my first instinct is that I’d go with the 49ers and Zach Miller – Miller is just more consistent, and he doesn’t have to rely on Brett throwing good or throwing piss. However, the Seahawks are dead last in the NFL in passing yards given up and only 5 teams have given up more passing touchdowns than they have. Houston’s not much better but they are a little, they are in the middle of the pack as to yards allowed. The Jets love to throw the ball so even thought it’s stupid for them not to give the ball to Thomas Jones, they will likely try to get their yards through the air, even though it is snowy and cold in Seattle this week (believe me, I’m just an hour or so North and it’s snowy and windy here). So after thinking about it long and hard, the Hawks match-up has me swaying more toward Keller. I don’t know man, it’s so hard. I guess if you need a big day from him, go for Keller, he has 3 scores this season and has had more great games. But if you want a sure thing, Miller is your guy. Over the last 11 weeks he’s had less than 40 yards receiving just once. Once. THat’s crazy for a TE. But he only has one TD. I’d go SF over Cleveland because of a couple reasons, 1. They have better playmakers on their defense and instead of playing deflated (like the Browns), they have been playing inspired since Mike took over as head coach. Also, Marc Bulger is and always will be a sitting duck that throws picks. Also, if I’m taking one defense in the Browns game, it’s probably the Bengals. They’ve been way better against the run lately – they haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since Mewelde Moore in Week 7, and they’ve allowed just two all year. Crazy huh? And Dorsey can’t throw.

Johnson-ville from Jacksonville asks, “Would you start DeAngelo WIlliams, Joseph Addai, or Kevin Smith?”

JV, I’d go with Kevin Smith. I think he gets about 25 carries against the Saints this week, and I have a feeling that the Lions offensive line will be doing work against a Saints team that is basically already checked out. They’ve been eliminated. Bush is out. This should be a running game versus Drew Brees’ attempt to break the yardage record held by Dan Marino. I think Kevin Smith busts 100 yards and has a touchdown. I don’t think Addai or Williams will break the century mark in their respective match-ups.

Tim-e from Portland asks, “We have to decide our keepers in my work league before the last game in Week 17 – so I’m looking for some advice. I’m in a 12 team league where you have 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX, – It’s PPR, and you get bonuses for 100 yards at WR and RB, 50 yards at tight end, and 300 at QB – double bonus at 200, 100, and 450 – which four would you keep? DeAngelo Williams, Drew Brees, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Jason Witten – thanks in advance.”

Tiny Tim-E – Interesting scoring format, and I think it definitely changes things. It seems like Witten is a great option, even though I hate the idea of keeping a TE – the way I see it is this, he’s going to bust 100 yards often, and thus he’s going to get double bonus action a lot. That is a huge bonus and could win you weeks. Led by a TE? Probably not, but he is definitely a big time scorer for you. I also hate keeping QBs, so I probably wouldn’t keep Drew. He’s having a hell of a year, sure, but as you well know QBs don’t blow up year after year after year. Now Drew’s about as sure as it gets, but part of me wants to keep Slaton, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. But, since Drew is a solid 300 option against just anybody in the league and thus his bonus will be enforced often. So, that takes one away from Slaton, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. I like Slaton, but I think Johnson is the more explosive of the two, and I have to imagine that LenDale gets less and less in that offense. So, my final answer is Drew, Witten, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. I think Marshall is one of the best in the league, and as Cutler matures Marshall will only get better and better.