NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 16

I followed up my best week of the year with a buck wild 8-7-1 performance last week. As usual, some games boggled my mind, (For example; Miami upsetting a New England team that still had something to play for) but I managed to add to my winning ways pulling off an 8-7-1 record and moved my season record to 111-101-7. Who would’ve known TO would go down in Philly and Eli Manning would have a good day against the Steel Show? Not me. But to my credit, I predicted another fine performance by Billy Volek, also saying that Big Ben would do good things against New York. Both things happened while my bets went to the house. My wife didn’t send me back to the sofa bed though. Don’t know if that had more to do with it being cold at night or not but either way… Lester remains lucky, heh heh heh. Lucky’s money picks, Jacksonville over Green Bay, Larry Johnson over Denver, and New Orleans over Tampa Bay; went down as smooth as white rice. I’ve got two weeks to bolster my fine year, so let’s let it ride!Green Bay (+3) at Minnesota – Green Bay lost to Jacksonville last week, but so what? The Jag’s have been playing better than either of these two teams. The Vikings should have lost to the Lions a week ago, but pulled out a “W”. Randy Moss should be as healthy as he’s been all year, but even in a dome the Packer “O” should easily penetrate the gaping Viking defense. Ahman Green and company will get some much-deserved respect on the ground, and Brett will terrorize a secondary that finds itself at the bottom of the NFL food chain. Minnesota will always find a way to put up a fight, but I expect the Pack to win this game. Game Date: 12/24/04 15:00 ET

Oakland at Kansas City (-8) – The Chiefs are riding one of the hottest players in football, Larry Johnson. I must say I’ve loved the kid’s ability since his 2000 plus yard season back at Penn State. After gaining 104 yards rushing on just 7 carries two weeks ago against Tennessee, Vermeil decided it would be best to feed him the ball all day against Denver. He was right. Johnson carried the pig 30 big times for 151 yards. Big time. Johnson will get his share of yards against a poor run defense in Oakland. The spread is quite high, but the Chiefs have the offense to get it done.
Game Date: 12/24/04 17:00 ET

Denver at Tennessee (+4) – Denver has given fans reason to throw up. That’s right, the Broncos have done their best to fall right out of playoff contention losing 3 of their last 4. I love this stuff. I like to think Shanahan is doing his damnedest to test Bronco ownership. Jake Plummer has thrown a numbing 19 interceptions, most in crucial situations, and most leaving Shanahan’s face as red as a radish. His ability to ruin a completely productive rushing attack has me wondering why Mike doesn’t have Jake hand off more often. Did I mention their 1 win in the last 4 games came against Miami. Yikes! I’d love to see Billy Volek throw the ball around the “improved” Denver defense this weekend. Something tells me I might just get my wish. Either way, I can’t put money, or advise you to put money down on a team that has lost 3 of 4, and only beaten the Dolphins… by 3 measily points. Seems ridiculous right? Take the new version of the Run N’ Shoot, with emphasis on SHOOT!
Game Date: 12/25/04 20:30 ET

Atlanta (+4.5) at New Orleans – Atlanta doesn’t have much to play for, but should they be an underdog against the Saints? Oh no! The Falcons pulled out an overtime victory over a tough Panthers team last week. They won’t be risking the health of their players to long in this one, but long enough to pull out a victory against a New Orleans team that is done. Even though they seem to play their best when the season is over, I can’t find enough reason to take them as 5-point favorites. That’s just ludicrous.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5) – Pittsburgh won’t let up now that they have the best record in the AFC. They aren’t a let up kind of team. They did manage to play a close one with the Giants, who have been pathetic since their fast start. That’s a good reason for them to get back out on the field and remember how to dominate. They have a chance to put a big dent, if not an end to Baltimore’s playoff hopes by beating them this weekend. Ray Lewis and company always seem to find a way when their season is on the brink of extinction, but the Steel Show might be too much to handle. Big Ben played a good game last week, minus a couple of picks. On that note, he will be back to his old tricks, handing the ball off to Bettis and or Staley this Sunday. Look for Pittsburgh to win a war at home.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

Chicago at Detroit (-6) – What happened to Joey Harrington last week? After throwing for a total of 300 yards in his last three games, he almost single handily beat the Vikings last week with 361 yards. Though, often injured, Roy Williams is getting utilized again, and Joey is showing he might not be as terrible as he’s shown the last few weeks. They still lost though, so buyers beware. I’m taking Detroit here, not only because of their inspiring offensive performance a week ago, but also because of the pathetic team the Bears have turned out to be. I don’t care what they did to amaze me this year, they are still pathetic. Krenzel, Hutchinson, Jeff George, I don’t care who they put back there. All three of those guys don’t belong starting on Sundays. Detroit might very well win by default.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

Houston at Jacksonville (-7) – I like to bet on Houston because they are tough. They have a solid offense, especially when David Carr shows up, and a resilient defense, that gets better and every day their young guys get older. But, it’s not their year, and not their week. The Jags showed me a lot by beating the Packers last week. I see their goal, and Houston won’t stop the Jags from reaching the playoffs. Jacksonville has a born leader at QB as well as a stud running back who is playing his best football of the year. Their run D, which was mediocre last year, has returned with the health of Marcus Stroud. The feisty Texan team will find it tough to produce when their horse, Dominic Davis, can’t get free. This game is too important for the Jaguars to lose. Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (-6.5) – Eli Manning played pretty well against a Steeler D that has proven to be one of the tops in the league. But, like many rookies, Eli won’t be consistent week after week. In fact, I see him struggling against an improved Bengal team. Eli doesn’t have a defense to rely on, and it will show against a Cincy squad with some weapons. Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

San Diego (+7) at Indianapolis – I’m starting to realize why Eli Manning didn’t want to come to San Diego. He didn’t want to be stuck behind a Pro-Bowler. Drew Brees got voted in by fans and peers this last week, and he gets my congratulations. He’s not only a lock for most improved, but should finish in the top 5 for MVP voting. The MVP, of course, will be Peyton Manning. What a match-up this week. Both these teams would like to continue their winning streaks on into the playoffs, and if they meet in the AFC championship, this game could very well decide who plays at home and who travels across the US. Is that something to play for? Indeed. Though Peyton has burned my predictions, I can’t bet against the Chargers and 7 points. Their defense is better than an improved Colts D, and their offense is almost as good. Ladainian Tomlinson showed what he could do last week. The Chargers also showed they know how to win, throwing only 6 times last week, when running would get the job done. I like these Chargers. Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET

Buffalo (-11.5) at San Francisco – The Bills are trying to sneak into the playoffs behind Willis McGahee. To bad he’s out this week, and probably next. Good thing they play the worst team in the NFL this week. I read an article this week that claimed Ken Dorsey and Tim Rattay should get a combat star for playing behind their pathetic offensive line. Sure, but the rest of the team should get some friendly fire protection for playing with those two guys at quarterback. Honestly, the more I look at the 49ers the more I believe USC could take them. Buffalo, even with Drew Bledsoe as their primary option, should be able to produce enough points to beat the horrendous Niners by 2 touchdowns. They might even slip it in the playoff backdoor, and if they do, ha, take that Cowboys!
Game Date: 12/26/04 16:05 ET

New England at N.Y. Jets(+2) – The Jet’s are underdogs at home… they must be playing New England. Last time the Patriots took advantage of costly Jet mistakes, but not this time. New York has found Chad Pennington, who has in turn rediscovered Santana Moss. I warned everyone earlier this year that, “If Pennington can find a way to get Santana into the offense, watch out.” Well, watch out! Consider Moss found. Moss doubled his touchdown receptions on the year, and collected 5 passes for 80 yards. Curtis Martin is still Curtis Martin, which means he’s dangerous. The Jets D remains stingy. Look for the Jets to give the Patriots their first losing streak in a long time. Game Date: 12/26/04 16:05 ET

Arizona at Seattle (-7) – Oh boy, Seattle, what can I do with you? Last weeks collision with a much better Jets squad leaves the Seahawks reeling through the playoff race. Fortunately, they could very well lose two of two and get in. But that won’t happen. The Hawks will have everyone back next week, including the return of Koren Robinson. If anything, that gives Matt more options. The Hawks might even make it to the Super Bowl. The Eagles are without the man (TO) who gave their passing game credibility, and everyone else is just average. If the Hawks can pick up a little confidence on their way in to the post season, they might just be able to pull it off. Everyone sees the talent except them. It’s time to realize what they are, and start playing like it. Game Date: 12/26/04 16:15 ET

Carolina (+3) at Tampa Bay – Carolina is good. They barely lost to the Falcons, who have already clinched a first round bye. They could still find themselves in the playoffs with two wins in the final two weeks. After their turnaround, I’ve got to admit, anything is possible, especially for them, even more so in the NFC. If they don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because they aren’t one of the better teams in the NFC, it will be because of the injuries that killed them in the beginning of the season. Stick with a team with a chance here, not to mention a much better team in Carolina. Brian Griese has fallen back to earth, as expected, and so have the hopes of Gruden’s Buccaneer squad. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Phil Simms sometime in this one. Game Date: 12/26/04 16:15 ET

Washington(-2) at Dallas – The Skins are better than Dallas, although I’d love the Cowboys to win in hopes that their draft pick selection would get worse, I can’t ever really root for them. I definitely can’t bet on them. Yeah, one could argue that they put up a good fight against Philly last week, but let’s be honest; Philly was never worried about losing that game. They knew all along, all they had to do was walk down the field and dive in the end zone. That’s what they did. Washington has played better of late. The Cowboys struggle when they can’t run. If the Redskins have one thing, it’s a defense that is tough as nails. Now if they could just get a quarterback to show he’s worth something. The Skins will give the ball to a revitalized Clinton Portis this Sunday, who will in turn crush a defense that has been sorry all year.
Game Date: 12/26/04 16:15 ET

Cleveland at Miami (-7.5) – Talk about a pathetic game. If this game got canceled, I don’t think anyone would argue. The Browns have only looked more pathetic win since Butch Davis did the right thing by resigning. The Dolphins have only gotten better, but still have much to ask this year for Christmas. The Dolphins beat the Patriots on Monday Night, which, unfortunately, was their brightest moment of the year. While this game pits the two teams that have lost their coaches to frustration, the Dolphins have been better since the move, while the Browns have been horrendous. Look for Miami to dominate for the first time this year.
Game Date: 12/26/04 20:35 ET

Philadelphia (+3) at St. Louis – Even if TO is out, McNabb plays 2 quarters, Westbrook gets 7 carries, and the defense plays half their backups, the Eagles still shouldn’t be underdogs. The Rams are horrible. Hasn’t anyone realized this? Let’s look at their last five games…. Oh yes, there it is, 1-4 with their only win being against a real tough 49er team. Now do you see? The Rams aren’t worth a bet, ever. They got beat 31-7 by the Cardinals last week, for God’s sake. My prediction; Philly plays like a team that is looking for offense with their stud receiver out. They whip St. Louis early and often. Then their second string comes in and adds to the destruction. Underdogs? You’ve got to be kidding me. Game Date: 12/27/04 21:05 ET

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Lucky Lester

NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 15

Fold up the hide-a-bed, and buy the wife a pearl necklace; it’s time to move back into the Master bedroom. I went 11-5 last week. If you’ve followed my Luck at all this year, you noticed that my 11 wins in week 14 are the most thus far and pushes my season record to
103-94-6. It’s convenient that my best week followed my worst, but hey, that’s the way the pigskin bounces. Not only did I end up 11-5, I bet big on some big games. I took the Hawks to win in Minnesota at +250, the Saints to win in Dallas at +260, and the terrible Niners to beat Arizona for a huge payoff. So, with the little money I had left, I got a little redemption from my week 13 debacle. Heads up, because I’m firing up another go at a big week starting this Sunday. It’s getting down to the nitty gritty, and I’m going to take advantage of who’s tough and who’s Eli Manning, I mean… who’s not! If you listen carefully you might just come out on top, giving yourself an early return on your wife’s Christmas present.Pittsburgh (-10) at N.Y. Giants – You know I’ve got to go with the Steel City in this Saturday game where 12-1 collides with 5-8. The boys in Pittsburgh have kept up their tough play since the upsets of both New England and Philadelphia. The Giants finally get to see what they could’ve gotten without giving up next years first round pick, in the Steeler’s Ben Roethlisberger. This rookie has had his ups and downs, but the downs haven’t resulted in a single loss. This is not the week that changes. Unfortunately for Eli, his defense won’t feast on Big Ben like the Steelers will do on him. The Steelers defense is underrated, even though they are rated high. They take advantage of the ground it out running game that Bill Cower runs, and fly around the field when they aren’t watching Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis get first down after first down. The Steelers will dominate on Saturday, because that’s what they do to bad teams.
Game Date: 12/18/04 13:30 ET

Washington (-5) at San Francisco – I hate taking Washington ever, but like I’ve been saying the Niners are the most pathetic team in the league. Sure, they won a game last week, but that will be the last time that happens this year, I can almost guarantee you that. The Skins have started to realize how much they need Clinton Portis to touch the ball if they want to win games. He was throwing and receiving, as well as rushing the ball last week in Philly. Portis is the whole offense until Gibbs picks up a capable quarterback to lead his team. Luckily, the Niners couldn’t stop Drew Bledsoe quarterbacking The Replacements. Here’s to 2-12 Coach Dennis Erickson, Cheers! Game Date: 12/18/04 17:00 ET

Carolina at Atlanta (-3) – What has gotten into Mushin Muhammad and the Carolina Panthers. They’ve stopped looking like the pussycats that had been playing the first half of the year. For a team that has been decimated by injuries, they are putting on quite a show. Unfortunately, it’s going to end up all for not. Though one can argue that they are getting mounds of experience, all they are really doing is climbing down the draft order. Even though they have fought themselves into a playoff race, they have now moved behind 10 teams in the NFC alone when draft day comes around. I’d love to see them end with 8 straight wins and make the playoffs, but I don’t see it happening. With two sub par teams after Atlanta, they could make the playoffs even losing on Saturday. This week in Atlanta, the Falcons will show up for what will seem like the first time in weeks. Mike Vick should run around a defense that is still suffering from injuries, and the Falcon defense should do enough to get Atlanta the win on their home field. My heart says Panthers, my money says Falcons. Game Date: 12/18/04 20:30 ET

Buffalo (E) at Cincinnati – I’ve got to take the Buff in Cincinnati. Get this; the Bills haven’t scored less than 37 points in any game of their 4 game win streak. This is with the handicap of having Drew Bledsoe start at quarterback. In the stomping of the Browns, Drew managed to complete just 12-27 passing for 100 yards, a pick, and a TD. Luckily for Drew, his offense produced 215 yards rushing, 105 from Mr. Willis McGahee. With or without Drew, the Bills have been red hot, and are likely to shut down an offensive attack from the Bengals minus their rising star, Carson Palmer. While Kitna is a great back-up, he hasn’t played at all this year, and will struggle against a defense that allowed 14 net yards last week. Yes, 14!
Game Date: 12/19/04 13:00 ET

Dallas at Philadelphia (-12.5) – I have yet to bet on the Cowboys this year, and it’s really paid off. In fact, last week they improved my living situation all by themselves. Thanks for losing to a pitiful Saints team, Dallas. This week they won’t have to play like dog crap to lose, because they not only face Philly, a team that is known to destroy Dallas, but Terrell Owens as well, who makes his mark on the Cowboy secondary whenever he damn well pleases. Dallas can’t hang with the Eagles, regardless of a spread that nears two touchdowns. It’s good to see the Cowboys evaporating from the pathetic NFC playoff race. Game Date: 12/19/04 13:00 ET

Denver at Kansas City (+1.5) – Kansas City has ridden their running game, even without their holy man, Priest Holmes. Larry Johnson was phenomenal last week while only carrying the ball 7 times. The one-two punch of Blaylock and Johnson is turning in to a nine-punch combination. These two back-ups have shown us just how good Priest Holmes is to demand the touches he gets when healthy. The Chiefs are out of the playoff picture, but that doesn’t make them any less willing to sink the Broncos a little lower than their Shetland Pony status of late. Denver slipped past Miami last week by 3 measly points. I love the pathetic feeling I get when watching Denver. Plummer has been terrible, and their “much improved defense” has anything but. Shannahan looks to be on his way out, that’s too bad. Not! Game Date: 12/19/04 13:00 ET

Houston (+1) at Chicago – Houston gave it their all against Indianapolis last week, but fell short to the wrecking ball that is the Colts offense. David Carr has fallen from the horse he was riding earlier in the year, but should still lead his team past an offensively challenged Chicago squad. Chi-Town has been down right ugly this year, besides the game against the Vikings two weeks ago. As I predicted, they took a tumble in week 14, and will manage the same this Sunday. Dominic Davis has been astounding with the ball in his hands the last 5 or 6 weeks, and I see no reason for that to halt. Game Date: 12/19/04 13:00 ET

Minnesota (-3) at Detroit – I don’t care if Randy, Daunte, and Mike Tice have been questionable lately, there is no reason Joey Harrington should lead his team to victory over the Vikings on Sunday. Regardless of what critics think, they are still the same team they were earlier in the year when eyebrows were raised. Can they get back to that level and make some waves in the playoffs? I don’t know. But can they beat the crap out of the Lions in Detroit? You betcha! Moss will get on track with a couple touchdowns and Harrington will get benched for somebody, anybody, to stop Steve Marriucci from poking his own eyes out in disgust.
Game Date: 12/19/04 13:00 ET

San Diego (-10) at Cleveland – The Browns have been horrendous since Butch Davis stepped down as head coach. The Chargers have gotten better and better as the season has progressed. If you are still waiting for Drew Brees to slip back to his old numbers, you need to snap out of it. Drew has been damn good, enough so, that I voted for him to go to Honolulu. Brees has lifted his team and done everything he could to make them a good ball club. They have reacted. The Brees to Antonio Gates combination has impressed everyone, and it seems unstoppable. I don’t see Cleveland stopping much of anything. I don’t see them starting anything either. For a team that lost 37-7 last week to Buffalo, the 10 points against a superb Charger team seems like nothing.
Game Date: 12/19/04 13:00 ET

Seattle (+6) at N.Y. Jets – The Hawks stole one in Minnesota last Sunday, much to my big fat grin, and a nice pocket full of cash. Matt Hasselbeck has finally found his slinger, which is good to see if you happen to be a Seattle fan like me. The Hawks are a lot more dangerous if teams have to start worrying about 334 yards and 3 touchdowns coming from Matt’s arm. Shaun Alexander will play a big role against a good Jet team, but the Hawks are back, and are fixing to be what everyone thought they would be all year, NFC Champs!
Game Date: 12/19/04 13:00 ET

New Orleans (+8) at Tampa Bay – The Saints aren’t very good, but what they did to the Cowboys last week is good enough to make me a believer. It’s time for them to win anyway. They are far from playoff contention, even in the weak NFC, and have nothing to do but climb down the draft latter. They are good at showing up when the games no longer count. Tampa Bay is also fighting for a shot at a lower draft pick, so this game should be interesting. I don’t know how I’m taking the Saints when Deuce McCallister gained only 80 yards on 30 carries last week. Ugh! Let’s just call it a hunch. The 8 points helps too. Game Date: 12/19/04 16:05 ET

St. Louis at Arizona (+3) – My brain tells me to take St. Louis here, but they seem to be doing everything they can to remove themselves from post-season eligibility. That’s tough in the NFC, but they are managing it. I’m betting on another star-choking performance this week in Arizona. I think Dennis Green always likes to win ball games, and his team will beat the odds and take out a Ram team that has lost all confidence. What will happen in St. Louis this off-season? All I know is, right now, they stink, and it will show on Sunday when they fall to a ‘Zona squad that let Ken Dorsey beat them a week ago. Yes, that Ken Dorsey! Game Date: 12/19/04 16:05 ET

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Green Bay – I haven’t done that well betting the Packers this year. Brett Favre has either stepped up and threw touchdowns in my face, or thrown more picks than touchdowns when my money was riding his arm. Either way, when they’ve won, I’ve lost, and when they’ve lost I’ve lost. So, I’m taking Jacksonville here. Byron Leftwich is a leader. His team thrives around his poise, and they need a win this weekend. While both teams need a win, a loss all but eliminates the Jaguars from a tough playoff race in the AFC. I don’t think their young leader will allow that to happen. I’m going against my Green Bay roots, and taking Jacksonville in Green Bay.
Game Date: 12/19/04 16:15 ET

Tennessee (E) at Oakland – Do I think Billy Volek will post the numbers he did last week against Kansas City? No. But I do think he will toss the ball around the field against the Raiders. Billy has shown a little flare in his recent action, leading a brilliant performance on Monday Night. Drew Bennett, your average white quarterback turned NFL receiver had 233 yards receiving last week, enough to lead the league in a single game this year. Not bad. Oakland took a step back last week getting fingered by the Falcons 35-10. If anything, I’d like Oakland to lose just to see what Al Davis does with another high pick. It piques off-season interest. Game Date: 12/19/04 16:15 ET

Baltimore (+7.5) at Indianapolis – I’m betting against the Colts again this week. They couldn’t make the spread against a feisty Houston team, and the Ravens defense is up for the Manning challenge this Sunday. I think the spread is too high, given that the Colts D won’t do much to stop the average offensive attack the Ravens have. Boller isn’t a great quarterback, heck, he’s barely average, but the Colts secondary is way below average. Jamal Lewis will be back, and his return will mark the first time Jonathan Ogden and Lewis have been healthy together for some time. I’m predicting a lot of pounding from the rushing attack of the Ravens, limiting Manning’s time on the field, and keeping their defense fresh. Baltimore will surprise this week against a team that has already clinched their division. Game Date: 12/19/04 21:35 ET

New England (-10) at Miami – Miami almost pulled one out against a fading Bronco team, but will stand no chance against a Patriot team that’s eying a 15-1 season. New England pulled out a victory last week over a Bengal team that stayed in the game even without starter Carson Palmer. Belichick won’t let that happen against a much inferior Miami team in week 15. Monday night could be a boring night to watch football, as the game should be over by half time. Miami has no chance in this game, I don’t care how crazy and unpredictable this season has been. They have no chance at all!
Game Date: 12/20/04 21:05 ET

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Lucky Lester

NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 14

Oh, the horror! The horror of going 5-9 in week thirteen. Lucky is clinging to a positive mark for the season at 92-89-6. Week fourteen looks impossible to predict so it will probably be a monster of a winner! The NFL is nuts! ESPN’s Tom Jackson claims this is the most unpredictable season he has ever witnessed and I would concur!Bengals @ Patriots(-11) – Coach Belichick will have Corey Dillon in handcuffs on Sunday. He likes to do ridiculous things like that. Dillon could run all over his former team, but Belichick likes to show everyone he doesn’t need any player to win ball games. Dillon will see a limited number of carries, but the Patriot’s Tom Brady will be up for the challenge. I see something like week 1 against the Colts. Brady will come out with Dillon on the bench, running some run and Shoot offense, no huddle, and they will stomp a less talented Bengals team. Carson Palmer will cool off this week. His interceptions will match if not exceed his TD passes. The Patriots by 11 is tough because they play to close to many opponents. But if they play anywhere near 75% of how they could, the game should be a sleeper by quarter 3. The Pats show the NFL who’s defending champ in week 14. I will be watching. Okay, I’ll at least stay posted. I’ll watch Boomer during his 2 minute drill, how about that? Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Giants @ Ravens(-10) – The Giants got pistol whipped by the Redskins last week. That’s enough for me to take the Ravens. The Redskins are horrible. The Ravens aren’t horrible, even if Chester Taylor is running the ball. Boller is bad, but not bad enough not to throw a couple touchdown passes against a team that allowed Patrick Ramsey, of all people, to throw 2 in a single game. Ouch! Not that it should matter much. I predict the Ravens D will score more points than the Eli Manning led Giant offense. Ravens have to win this game, while the Giants gave up weeks ago.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Lions @ Packers(-9.5) – Looks like Brett Favre really showed the Eagles who was boss. Okay, so I missed that one, we all make mistakes from time to time. Yeah, yeah, I made a bunch of mistakes last week. This week will be different. I kind of, really believe, and promise a little that my picks will be better. This week is tough, there are only 2 games where teams are less than 6-point underdogs and this isn’t one of them. Last week, the Packers really showed the odds makers that they deserved to be 9.5-point favorites. They are crazy, but I’m with them on this one. Follow me into crazy odds maker world, and see if we can both make some dough. Brett Favre was horrible last week. In fact, Donovan McNabb threw more touchdowns in the first half (5) then Favre completed passes in the second half (3). But this is the thinking: Brett can’t possible play that terribly two weeks in a row, his chest hair won’t let him. Brett is a competitor and he’s got to be a little ticked about his big game performance, or lack there of. He, undoubtedly, let his facial hair grow all week, anticipating a must win in Lambeu. Must win might be a stretch, but Brett will play as though it is. The Packers will rally behind their fearless leader and destroy a Lion team that gained a little confidence last week. Packers by two TD’s in this one, no problem.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET

Seahawks (+6) @ Vikings – Both these teams had me pissing and moaning last weekend. The Hawks lost to Dallas, which hurt like an ingrown toenail. Parcells is looking good on waiting for Julius Jones and picking up a number 1 pick in next year’s draft. The Hawks have been piss poor lately, but should have won on Monday. Amazingly, they are still in first place in their division. Lucky for them. Hasselbeck was back last week, and he will be even better against the Vikings in week 14. I like the Hawks to win here, setting the Vikings up for a repeat performance of last years amazing escape from the playoffs. Arizona made like Houdini, pulling a Viking out of a post season before it started, amazing. The Vikings are trying to fit into the same category as the Saints. Moss is back, or is he? He’s fine, he’s hurt. Culpepper has come down to earth, but should put up big numbers against the Hawks, who let just about anybody cash in for 300 yards passing. The Hawks might go 8-8 and get into the playoffs. The NFC is a joke this year. Either way, both of these teams lost to B-teams last week, so the 6 the Hawks are getting, makes me feel a little easier.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Raiders (+7.5) @ Atlanta – The Raiders have been playing tough lately. They beat a Bronco team in the snow in Denver, and then lost by a TD to the Chiefs last week. Atlanta got shut out by a diligent Bucs squad a week ago. The way the season has been flowing, I should predict the Falcons to win by 20 points, but I just can’t do it. I like the “grip it” and “rip it” passing attack the Raiders have been sporting on offense. Their defense still struggles, but now the offense puts up enough points to be in ball games. The Falcons pass defense is atrocious, so Kerry Collins might be set for a big weekend. When all is said and done, the spread is too big. A touchdown, maybe, but that half point looms large. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Chicago @ Jacksonville(-7.5) – After the quarterback circus the Bears had been running since starter Rex Grossman went out with a bum knee, they did the unthinkable and signed long time loser Jeff George. His absence from the league had reached a number that makes you use the plural version of year. But it was all a big trick. All along, through Jonathan Quinn medicine boy, Craig QB rating Krenzel, and Jeff “Who Knows George, the Bears had someone who could produce a QB rating over 65 all along. What” were they waiting for the last 7 weeks? I’m pretty sure they have my column tapped. They saw that I had risked it all on the Vikings, and that’s what set them off. Newly signed George didn’t play a snap; instead, Cowboy refugee camp Hutchinson led the tricky Bears to victory, by 10 no less. Now they are really trying to trick me, but I won’t be had. I’ll take the Jaguars in this one, not because they’re better, but they are. Not because they need the win more, but they do. It’s because the Bears showed me last week that they can win, and if anything, they were just trying to trick me. The Jags will call the Bears on their bluff, beating them by 3 touchdowns in a Jacksonville swamping.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

New Orleans (+7) @ Dallas – I can’t believe the Julius Jones show is off to a thrill ride in Dallas. The Seahawks can’t stop anyone, but neither can the Saints. He should be close to 150 again, and it’s gonna make me sick. Luckily, the Cowboy defense is so terrible, even the inconsistent Aaron Brooks should make mince meat of their once daunting secondary. The Cowboys have won two straight and are pushing for a late season run that could have me in tears if they make the playoffs. But that won’t happen. The Saints, who have already underachieved enough to write off their own season, will snap the towel at the Cowboys. Deuce should run easily against Dallas, but then again, he’s ran well once or twice all year. Joe Horn, the one bright spot for the Saints will have another big game against a Dallas team that helped Matt Hasselbeck get back on track a week ago. Their D looks like they are playing with 9 guys out there; wide-open spaces have a whole new meaning. Saints to upset Dallas.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Colts @ Texans (+10.5) – The Texans will win on Sunday. Mark my words, Houston has underachieved lately, and will surprise Manning and his boys with a tough game. That’s not it though. Manning will throw an interception near the end of the game in what would have been the game winning drive. Okay, it’s true. I’ve been so off lately that I thought I’d go for it all with this one. Think… if that stuff actually happens you’ll all be mystified. Well, I’m sticking with it. The Texans will stun the world! Or at least Sunday warriors everywhere. David Carr will be on in Texas, but Manning will get within one of the touchdown record. It wont be enough though, 10 points will be too hard to cover away from home. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Jets (+6) @ Pittsburgh – The Jets will upset Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh. New York is a good team, and although they’ve come up short against the likes of the New England Patriots, they will be singing in the streets of New York on Sunday. A streak even more amazing then the Patriots consecutive wins mark will be broken. Big Ben will lose his first game. The Jets are too good and fast on defense, and Chad Pennington is back at the helm for New York. Curtis Martin will run for tough yards against a good D. In the end, the game will be closer than the 6-point spread. The Jets will win outright.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:05 ET

Dolphins @ Broncos(-11.5) – The Broncos are bad lately, but bad enough to lose to the Dolphins? No! The Dolphins would be worse off winning, with only a good draft pick to lose. The Broncos still look like they will make the playoffs, and should come back to form against a depleted Miami team. Miami did put up good numbers against a good Bills D last week, but the Dolphins D did something inconceivable. They gave up a 7-yard run to Drew Bledsoe. In one-10 second trot 7 yards down field, Drew Bledsoe doubled his seasons rushing totals. I didn’t see it, but I heard the person he ran by was seen slamming his head against the locker after the game. Bledsoe was quoted saying he felt like a track star during his run. In further statistical searching’s, I found that Drew’s yards per carry where right up at .5 yards per carry this season. Not bad for someone who could hike the ball, fall forward and gain 2 yards. This being said, Jake Plummer should find room to snake around in Denver on Sunday. So will the rest of the Broncos. This should be just as bad as the spread insists.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:05 ET

Rams (+6.5) @ Panthers – This is funny. The Rams are bad, but not 6.5 points worse than the lowly Panthers. I know the Panthers have won a couple games lately, but that doesn’t change what they’ve done for most of the year, lose. Nick Goings will rush for fewer yardages than Stephen Jackson, and Chris Chandler will throw up deep Hail Mary’s that will be caught by the solid receiver combo of Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce. Taking the Rams to win here should pay around 2-1, if not more, so don’t waste time on the 6.5 points. Bet big or go home. And then if you lose, go home to your box, like me.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET

49ers (+7) @ Cardinals – I was going to take the Niners here, but then I remembered how absolutely pathetic they are. Kevan Barlow, the guy who had signed up to be their lone bright spot, has been worse than disappointing. Unfortunately, his team is even more pathetic than he has been. The Cardinals shouldn’t ever be 7.5-point favorites, but that doesn’t take into account a game against San Francisco. McCown is back this week, and Dennis Green should get to show Arizona fans a little glimpse of the future. Boldin, Fitzgerald, and a tough defense should rub this one out without any interruptions.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET

Eagles (-9.5) @ Redskins – The Redskins put up big numbers against the Giants, but once again they are overrated against a superior Eagles team. Portis should be limited to 10-15 touches again in this one, because the Skins will be out of this game by half-time. Good thing for them, they can turn to the passing prowess of one Patrick Ramsey. He threw for more touchdowns than picks last week, which is a big deal for him. Ramsey won’t make that stat a streak this week. TO should catch a couple passes, score a couple touchdowns, and mock the Redskins in some hilarious and disrespectful manner. I see TO dancing into the end zone. Game Date: 12/12/04 20:35 ET

Cleveland @ Buffalo(-11) – I hate thinking about watching this game. I hate taking Buffalo and giving 11 points. However, the Bills have won five of their last six and the Browns have dumped six in a roll. Expect the Bills at home to jump all over rookie QB Luke McCown. Willis McGahee should have a monster day against a pathetic Brown run defense. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET

Bucs @ Chargers (-5 ) – This game looks much tougher to handicap after Tampa Bays dismantling of Atlanta last week. I expect the Bucs to come back to earth against a Charger squad that has played inspired football all year. McCardell will burn his old mates deep and tight end Antonio Gates is just plain unstoppable.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET

Chiefs ( +1.5 ) @ Titans – The Chiefs are finally getting production from recent first round draft pick Larry Johnson. Johnson should find room to roll against the badly dinged Titan defense. Billy Volek should find plenty to smile about looking at the pitiful Chief secondary. Take the Chiefs in a track meet. Game Date: 12/13/04 21:05 ET

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Lucky Lester

NFL Free Picks 04-05 Week 13

Lucky enjoyed another winning week going 9-7 against the spread and moved to 87-80-6 for the NFL season. Let us jump right in with the picks, which should prove lucky even in Week Thirteen!Bengals(+6.5) @ Ravens -The Bengals, of all teams, were the last straw for Butch Davis. After his team gave up 58 points to Carson Palmer and his Cincy squad, Butch called it quits. This makes the Bengals the first team this year to force a coach to quit, and they will respond in week 13. I guess giving up 58 points to the Bengals is pretty amazing. The Bengals D shouldn’t find life too difficult against a raw Baltimore offense that continues to hurt their defense with turnovers deep in their own territory. The stories all over the league before last Sunday stated that Kyle Boller was coming of age, and he’s not just a guy handing the ball off anymore, blah, blah, blah… Right! He didn’t just hand the ball off against the Cowboys, so what. Last week his coach wished handing the ball off was an option. Boller isn’t an impressive QB, don’t know if he ever will be. Jamal Lewis hasn’t been great this year, but the Ravens have been even worse without him. With Lewis being a game time decision, I have to give the nod to the Bengals and the 6 points they are getting. Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

Cardinals @ Lions(-6) -The Cardinals are an up and down team this year, unfortunately there have been too many downs. The Lions have the same symptoms, losing to Washington and then barely getting beat by a tough Jaguar team in OT. Then a tough Viking team barely snuck past them in week 11. Last week they gave up 6 touchdowns to Peyton Manning alone, in three quarters. To put that into perspective, Mike Vick has 11 TD’s and he hasn’t missed a snap in 11 games. But all stats aside, the Cards are starting an un-drafted rookie at running back, and John Navarre at QB. Combined they have 43 yards of career offense, all coming from Larry Croom. If you don’t recognize that name, it’s okay; he’s the aforementioned rookie running back. The Lions still have Joey Harrington, Roy Williams, Kevin Jones, and a defense that has done all right, except for last week. I expect a better performance from a turbulent Lion team in week 13. Winning by 6 should be doable. Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

Titans(+10.5) @ Colts – This one might get me medically tested by my employers, but first let me explain. The Colts kicked the Lions to the curb last week; getting 6 touchdown passes from their fearless leader Peyton Manning. The Titans let a good lead slip away against the Texans, losing against the team they use to be. (Oilers, Warren Moon, Run N Shoot… remember?) But that was without Chris Brown, and McNair is just getting healthy. Steve played pretty well, and I think he will dip into his old bag of MVP tricks against a good Colts team. The Tennessee defense is underrated. I don’t know if their corners can hang with the trio Manning tosses the pigskin to, but they aren’t a pushover like the Lions were on Thanks Giving. 10.5 is a ton, and at a huge underdog to pull the upset, (+450) I might even take the Titans to defeat pretty horses.
Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

Vikings(-7) @ Bears – This game is a no-brainer, and I’ve already put big money down, just in case the odds makers come to their senses. I know the Bears just hired one of the best QB’s of all time, Joe Montana. But even with his amazing football skill and knowledge, the man is old, and he can’t win games on his own at his age. Wait. What am I saying? Just in… the Bears just signed Jeff George, not Montana. Jeff George hasn’t been a winner anywhere, and has been out of the league just about as long as Joe Namath. In fact, I’d rather have Namath. This is how bad it’s gotten in Chicago. What is going on? They aren’t going to the playoffs or anything, and I know damn well Jeff isn’t a long-term answer. So why not start a young fellow and try to teach him something? This is absurd. The Bears will get crushed by the Vikings who are back to full strength with Mr. Moss. Like I said, I’ve already taken a lot of action on this odds makers blunder, I advise you do the same. Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

Bills(-3.5) @ Dolphins – The Bills just destroyed the Hawks last week in Seattle. I’ve given Drew Bledsoe a lot of crap this year. I don’t see that “slowing down” any time soon. His methodical style only got him sacked one time last week, but in a 38-9 shellacking of the Hawks, Drew managed a 68 quarterback rating, with 3 interceptions to his one touchdown. What are the Bills doing? They are 5-6 and aren’t nearly as good as the playoff teams in the AFC. Drew Bledsoe has been terrible, yet JP Losman sits on the bench and watches. Maybe I should run a football team. I would know well enough to stick my future QB in when the season is lost for my team, and all that’s left is how good my draft pick will be. Sure, 9-7 is nice, but not when 7-9 moves you up 4 spots in the draft. Either way, with or without our world-class sprinter, Drew Bledsoe, the Bills should handle the most pathetic team in the NFL. The Dolphins only hope in winning is a court case against deserter Ricky Williams, and that’s not looking so good either. In a season that has forced the resignation of Dave Wandstedt, seen a top off-season pick up injured in the preseason, (David Boston, out for the year) and lost their only pro bowl offensive player (Williams), I can’t see a win coming even against the Bledsoe led Bills. And it hurts to say that. Drew might even pad his career rushing stats. Who knows? Let him loose!
Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

Falcons(+1.5) @ Buccaneers – What has changed in three weeks that makes this game any different than it was in week 10? Oh I see, Atlanta has gone undefeated and the Bucs just lost to Carolina. That makes sense…. unbelievable. I want some of the stuff the odds makers were on this week. The game is in Tampa Bay, but does that really make anyone think the Bucs should be favored? Atlanta is a playoff team, in the weak NFC yes, but the Bucs aren’t a playoff team in any league. Their running game will be shut down again, and Griese won’t be able to beat the Falcons by himself. It’s games like this that make me think that somebody is playing a trick on me, like this week in Tampa the opposing center has to play QB for the first half. The way I see it, even then, Vick will play in the second half, still giving the upper hand to Atlanta. Tampa shouldn’t play with Atlanta, regardless of how erratic the Falcons are.
Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

49ers @ Rams(-10.5) – The Rams have been terrible. Recently they have only beaten the Hawks, who gave the Rams the game. Bulger has racked up the most passing yards in the league, but then again blind deep passes have to be completed sometimes. When will Mike Martz realize that he has to run the ball to be successful. He’s been doing this stuff since he won his first Super Bowl with the Rams. He has a great tandem with Faulk and rookie Stephen Jackson at his disposal, yet he continues to let his quarterback launch the ball aimlessly down field. Fortunately for the Rams, they are playing the 49ers this week, which can’t even slow down a Bledsoe to Bledsoe air attack. I take back that the Dolphins are the most pathetic team in the league. At least they have an excuse, if not a few. The Niners decided to start the season with Ken Dorsey as their backup. They also lost to Miami last week. Enough said. Even the Rams should beat the Niners by a couple touchdowns. Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

Panthers @ Saints(-1) – The Saints have played a couple halves of decent ball of late. They hung with the Falcons a week ago, and three weeks ago, they beat Kansas City. But, the Broncos did kill them in week 11. Who knows what the Saints will play like in week 13. Not Jim Haslett, that’s for sure. That’s the thing though; a Sunday couch warrior like me has the same shot as God does in a New Orleans prediction. The Panthers managed to beat Tampa Bay last week behind another good game from Nick Goings. These defenses suck, and both the offenses come and go like Oprah”s cheeks. Honestly, I think the Saints will jump all over the Panthers this week, finish the season strong, but not strong enough to earn a playoff spot. The end of the season will show promise for a team that has been “young” for the last 5 years, and all the sports geniuses will pick them to win more games in 2005. But that’s just my prediction. Either way, I see a Saints win in New Orleans on Sunday. Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

Broncos @ Chargers(-3) – The Chargers fought off a tough effort from a never say die Kansas City team in week 12. The Broncos lost to a dead Raiders team. I’ll take the Chargers giving only 3 at home. The Broncos have been bad on the road, and San Diego has been good everywhere. The sensational Antonio Gates should have another big week. Also look for my main man Ladainian Tomlinson to reel off a big game. Lets not forget the crucial ingredient in this game, Drew Brees. Yeah, it took me a while to actually believe he was for real, but I have to trust his game now. He hasn’t had the benefit of an awesome season everyone expected from LT. He has had to make throws to win games, and he has done that. He’ll do it again against Denver who let Kerry Collins throw for 339 yards and 4 touchdowns, in the snow, in Denver. Not Peyton Manning, Kerry Collins. Game Date: 12/05/04 16:05 ET

Giants(+2) @ Redskins – The Giants shouldn’t be able to win many games while starting Eli Manning at QB. But this week will be the exception. The Redskins are terrible. Their best player, by far, had 6 carries for 17 yards last week. Clinton Portis was on the bench for a good part of the game because the Redskins were behind so early, that running was out of the question. Tiki Barbar will get his share of carries, and should break the 100-yard mark against a good Washington defense. I’m foreseeing 2 or 3 turnovers from the Redskins, and that’s wishful thinking for Joe Gibbs. Patrick Ramsey doesn’t have NFL talent, and will soon be written off as just another screw up by Steve Spurrier. For a team costing their owner a pretty penny, the Redskins are downright horrid. Odds makers must know something I don’t.
Game Date: 12/05/04 16:15 ET

Packers(+6) @ Eagles – The Eagles look really good lately. But, they played Eli Manning last week, and took advantage of his rookie mistakes. That won’t happen with Brett Favre playing the way he is. Brett has been playing like the champion he is since his slow start. Javon Walker has shown off the talent that made him a high pick in the first place. Ahman Green should be back, but if he isn’t Nejah Davenport can obviously get things done. Terrell Owens and Donovan McNabb has been a lethal combo, but will slip this week. McNabb has been too accurate lately, so I expect a drop off. I’d love to take the Packers to win in this one for a big pay off, but the 6 points are a nice diaper in case this is a nail biter, which I imagine it will be.
Game Date: 12/05/04 16:15 ET

Steelers(-3) @ Jaguars – The Steelers continue to be snubbed by the odds makers. The Jaguars are a tough team, but they just lost to the Vikings by 11 and I think the Steelers are better than Minnesota. That’s bad thinking for betting, but this isn’t. The Jaguars haven’t been as stout against the run this year, and the Steelers have the best rushing attack in the league. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t had to make plays to win, but I believe he can. He’s got a rocket arm, and is poised enough to make it happen against a Jacksonville secondary that can be picked on. Duce Staley is back this week, and with Bettis backing him up and getting a bunch of carries, the Steelers should always have fresh legs on the field. Pittsburgh also has a D that is just too good to bet against. Game Date: 12/05/04 20:35 ET

Cowboys @ Seahawks(-7) – Where have all the Seahawks gone? In a season that was destined for greatness the Hawks managed to lose by 29 points to the Bills, and my favorite, Drew Bledsoe. Matt Hasselbeck looks horrible, and even the walrus look alike on the sideline has been huffing and puffing. Something is wrong in Seattle. There’s no doubt in my mind that this goes deeper than everyone thinks. I’ve been burned by the Hawks since my 3-0 start with them. This week should be different. Hasselbeck has to realize at some point that he is way better than he is playing. Holmgren should decide to just let Matt play ball, without any dumbing down, and without giving an absurd amount of carries to Shaun Alexander. The Cowboys are just flat out bad on both sides of the ball. Julius Jones won’t find as much yardage as he did against Chicago. The Hawks have a lot of injuries, but they will come to play against Dallas. With everything that has blown up in their faces since they lost to the Rams in week 4, the Hawks still have a good bunch of players that could just come together in adversity, and realize they still control their own playoff destiny. The Hawks will beat Dallas, and if they all come to play, they should really shut them down in Seattle. Game Date: 12/06/04 21:05 ET

Houston @ Jets (-7 ) – Chad Pennington is back, and his team is still headed for the playoffs. Houston is a mere roadblock in New York’s plans. With Chad back behind center, defenses won’t be able to load up on the run, making life easier for Curtis Martin to do what he was doing earlier in the season. Since Pennington’s injury something good has happened in Jetland, Santana Moss has come alive. If this continues, the Jets become a favorite to move on. Moss has been disappointing for the most part, but might pull a presto chango like he did last year. Either way the Jets should win easily at home against Houston. Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET

WAGERING SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN

Good Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester