Tag Archives: Matt Forte

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 10

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I’ve been doing my thing. I hope all you readers are digging my advice, I’m getting more emails than ever before, and having a pretty good time interacting with the LL.com supporters out there – keep ’em coming, papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I can always dig some reader interaction. That being said, I can’t get everything right, all I can do is tell you what I think, give you the reasoning behind my opinion (as unpopular or crazy as it may seem, or turn out, for that matter), and take the good and the bad as it comes.

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Before I answer any questions, I’d like to let everyone know, never again will I draft a player that had their offensive coordinator fired just before the season… Never again will I eat a Taco Bell Black Jack Taco… Never will I ever even think about drafting a receiver getting balls thrown to him by any one of the following QB impostors, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Brady or Derek, JaMarcus, a rookie with a “big arm” (that one’s for you Mr. Stafford), or Kerry Collins… Never again will I expect great things out of a receiver in a new place (unless you’re Randy Moss-like and headed to Tom Brady’s neighborhood), or a receiver with a new coach, or a receiver with a new coach in a new place in a bad system, or Roy Williams… And last but not least, never again will I go watch football with my nephew, that Lucky little bastard switches around from game to game faster than my wife flicks through the damn channels when nothing’s on – that’s the only time in my life I wish I didn’t have every damn channel on TV. She goes so fast I can’t even see the naked breasts on skinamax…. NEVER AGAIN! Okay, vent complete, here’s the Q&A section!

Dave in Dakota says, “Papa, I hope the fantasy Gods have been smiling on you. I am hanging in there with my teams. Real quick, Which of these RBs should I try to pickup? (Betts,Bernard Scott,Forsett,Reggie Bush, or Kolby Smith?) These guys won’t start unless a good match up. Maybe a possible keeper in that bunch?”

The fantasy Gods have backed off the humility lesson the last few weeks, and I’m doing better. I would pick up Reggie Bush – he has been very explosive of late, and his surgery looks to be effecting him less and less –  then probably Kolby Smith (his upside is starter in KC where I don’t think anybody else has starter upside in that bunch. Next would be Justin Forsett (though that guy can’t buy touches, he’s always way more efficient than any other Hawk ball carrier but Mora hates his couch). And last Scott. I like Scott’s ability, he’s just a no-touch guy behind Benson (who has become a beast). Hope that helps!

Coach D in Minnesota asks, “Which WR Chambers or James Jones? What do you think of Bengals Def. vs the Packers Def?”

I would probably go with James Jones. I’ve always thought the guy was a starting WR in the league, and he’s making the most of his touches, I think he has 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games or so. Plus, with Nelson out, he’s become the sure #3 WR there, and they have many 3WR sets. But Chambers is a little intriguing. He just did nothing in the last couple years, so it’s hard for me to fully buy in to that performance.

I like the Bengals defense a lot, very opportunistic and stout up front. The Packers are okay, but not great by any means. You can’t trust them to play well any week.

Stan in San Fran writes, “All right, Papabear… here is the scenario: I have been offered Ronnie Brown and Buchalter in exchange for Forte and Westbrook. My other backs are Thomas Jones, Felix Jones and Ladell Betts. Brown and Jones would provide me with a solid RB foundation and their schedules are favorable; plus, both offenses are run oriented. I am, “on paper”, giving up a lot, but, that is only if Forte and Westbrook were performing at projected levels. Your thoughts?”

Papabear? Haha – I don’t even know how to respond to that. I guess I’ll just answer the question and eat all the honey later. I think your offer could be good for you, but Ronnie Brown isn’t always used as he should be, in fact, rarely does he get 20+ carries – then again, neither Forte or Westbrook look like awesome choices going forward either, and I would definitely rather have Brown than either of those two guys. Yeah, I’d go with the Ronnie Brown side of that trade – at the very least you know he’s going to get his carries and they do have a relatively easy schedule moving forward while Forte’s is tough.

Stan also writes, “In addition, and if the trade doesn’t go through, do I start Jones and Forte this week or do I insert Betts with a more favorable matchup than Forte (plus the short week and travel).”

I think I would start Forte and Jones or Betts – Jones just isn’t consistent enough for me, and at the very least I think Forte could catch 5 o 6 balls this week. Betts goes up against a tough Denver defense, but Clinton’s back-up will be getting starter carries, and he’s good at catching the ball out of the back-field as well. It’s a toss up to me, between Jones and Betts, but I think I might go with Betts.

Super Man Canada asks, “I need a look in your crystal ball. What do you see for Ronnie Brown? Ronnie Brown’s numbers have been down lately, do you think defenses are getting the best of the Wildcat, starting to figure it out a bit? My man is slipping.”

I don’t think it’s that, I think it’s that they’ve played the Saints, Jets, and Patriots in 3 straight weeks and Brown hasn’t approached 20 carries in any of those games. Prior to that he had 18 or more carries in 4 straight games, and that’s when he rushed for nearly 400 yards and 6 touchdowns. Who knows, the crystal ball has no guarantees, but Brown looks like one of the better bets moving forward – you know the Dolphins are going to run it, they’re at their best with the ball in Ronnie’s hands, and they play a pretty easy run schedule going forward. Plus, lots of smart people thought Ronnie would have a great year, can’t go against my gut when I’m half way through being right!

The Planless Man asks, “I have been offered Romo, Evans and Maroney for Boldin, Schaub, and Greene. What do you think? I know what I am thinking, but I want to see if you are thinking along the same lines as me. Thanks!”

Not for me. Schaub is better than Romo (though i like both), Boldin is way better than Evans, and while you gain a little with Maroney, I doubt he’ll be a player that is a difference maker for you. So you lose. Unless you’re starting Maroney as one of your Top running backs, you have to steer clear of this deal, a small upgrade at your #3 RB isn’t worth losses at your starting WR and QB spots. Plus, the DECLINE button is awesome to click!

Fantasy Focus: Week 9 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

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The Fantasy Title stayed in house last week, Papa took the top spot but I finished way down at the bottom, and we all know there’s no room for that moving forward. There are some pretty stark differences in our rankings this week, so check them out and see if you can’t find something good to grab at. First thing’s first, you won’t find Jake Delhomme in anybody’s Top 5 – as for the rest, check it out below!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – He obviously needs to touch the ball more, KC wishes he wouldn’t.
2. Tom Brady – The Dolphins have a solid front 7, but Tom will be picking on that back four…
3. Larry Fitzgerald – WRs are often tough to predict, but hard not to see Fitz having a big day against the Bears.
4. Reggie Wayne– His awesome routes and great hands, Peyton’s elite accuracy, Reg is basically unstoppable.
5. Pierre Thomas– PT wasn’t a high draft pick, but the guy is a flat out stud and should have a big day against Carolina.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Matt Hasselbeck – Had surprisingly good numbers last week for how bad the Hawks played. Enter Detroit….
2. Steve Smith (NYG) – Has lost some of that early season luster, but I bet he’s back in action against San Diego.
3. Ryan Grant – Grant should have a big time day against the Bucs, but you’re relying on the Packers actually running the ball.
4. Mike Sims-Walker – After a disappointing Week 8 against a shady pass defense, I think Mike steps back up in Week 9.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw –I like Bradshaw’s chances for big plays against San Diego’s porous defense.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – It’s killing me in a couple leagues, but Nate is a better play than T.J. Housh…
2. Julius Jones – He’s not consistent, but he’s the best option the Hawks have, and they will run on Detroit.
3. Steve Breaston – Boobs should be a great play against the Bears, I think Boldin might sit this one out.
4. Alex Smith – Risky? Maybe, but Alex should have some room to throw against the Titans secondary.
5. Jamal Charles – Here come the Jaguars and their run defense, Charles finally gets his shot with LJ out.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. LaDainian Tomlinson– I think Sproles will get a little more play in this one, the Giants should be tough on LT.
2. Antonio Bryant– Rookie quarterback, tough corners that play physical, bad day for Bryant.
3. Roy Williams – Still the number one receiver? Not on my fantasy team, that’s for sure.
4. Steve Smith (CAR)– Saints are smart enough to role all coverage to Steve, he should struggle for fantasy points in NO.
5. Matt Forte– Oh Matt, how do you like Jay Cutler now? Arizona’s run D is tough sledding.

***Another Big Bye in Week 9: don’t play Bills, Browns, Raiders (not that you would), Rams, Vikings, or Jets! Mind the mighty Gap!!!

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Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

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Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 8

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This is Papa Weimer, back again for some fantasy football question and answer action. I had a couple tough calls last week, even going so far as to advising a fantasy reader to sit Ricky Williams (80 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns) for Tashard Choice (0 carries, 1 catch for 23 yards) but man, guys, how am I supposed to predict something like Choice getting shut out on the ground and Ricky dicing up the Saints stellar run defense for the most touchdowns in one single game of his entire career??? Shoot, sometimes I miss, but I always take a shot. So, feel free to send your questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here to try and steer you away from carrots and ketchup, and get you closer to apples and cheese – yes, the latter is better than the former… Here’s this week’s early emails….

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Brad from the internet writes in, “I have a trade question. I currently have a trade offer, I have Steve Slaton and I have been offered Matt Forte for him. Slaton has been doing pretty good for because the Texans have been using him as a receiver but his rushing has not been so good. I’m a Bears fan so I need some advise!! LOL. I really want to make this trade cuz I believe Forte will turn around or am I just being a fan?? Thanks for your help!”

Brad, I hope I can steer you in the right direction. Here goes nothing. I’d stick with Slaton, at least for now. I love Forte’s game, he’s tough, he’s got great feet, and when you give him enough chances to succeed he usually does. The problem with the Bears is that they just aren’t a team ready to give a running back good fantasy numbers. Jay Cutler has a great arm, and his style over his short career has meant a couple things. His teams will score fast. That’s good for offensive numbers, but not really great for running backs. The faster the score, the fewer plays it takes, the fewer chances your RB gets to get break one. He also doesn’t check down. He’s been known for locking onto receivers and throwing it regardless of coverage. Look at it, he seeming choses a play for a player, like in Madden 2009, and just goes there not matter what you do. This is a problem for a couple reasons. Interceptions and incompletions also cause for a shorter offensive series. Also, when you don’t check down, your RB with great hands and receiving skills rarely gets catches. Now, unless this changes, I think Matt continues to struggle. This is why I was warning you Bear fans about getting so happy with the addition of Cutler. Great arm, not always the decisions you need to win football games. Then you add in the schedule over the next 5 weeks. Forte’s value might even go down from here. This week is a great match=up, sure, the Browns come to town to give Forte plenty of chances to up his fantasy stock, but what about after that? 4 Top-10 Rush defenses go up against the Bears, the Cardinals (1), the 49ers (6), the Eagles (11) and the Vikings (10) – and the Vikings are probably much better than any one of those. That’s a tough 4 game stretch where you’ll be looking for a playoff spot. You compare that to Slaton playing just 2 Top 10 defenses for the rest of the season (Titans-10, Dolphins-4) and I think you see why i’d stick with Steve. I think Forte will have some solid numbers late, but after this week it doesn’t look so bright. Good luck in either way you decide.

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William Bad-Ace from Beaver Falls, PA asks, “What is your best pick for survivor this week? I no longer have the Colts, not that they are a sure thing this week against San Fran anyway, I’m basically deciding between Chicago, San Diego, and Houston – any thoughts?”

Sure Billy, I got some advice for your Ace. I like the teams you listed, all could be a decent option. And yes, you’re right, Indy is far from a sure thing against a tough Niners squad. When’s the last time Indy played a physical football game anyway? Arizona in Week 3 or Miami in Week 2. That’s a long time ago. I’d steer clear from that game in survivor action. Of your choices, I’d rank San Diego #1, Chicago #2, and Houston #3. I think San Diego should slap Oakland around, but the Chargers are a little bit like the Eagles in that they rely heavily on the pass, and that can always come back to haunt you. Chicago plays Cleveland, but I’m not 100% here either, the Browns have a good offensive line and the Bears defensive front got blown out of the water by Cincinnati’s rushing attack last week, this could be more interesting than people expect. Houston should win, but Buffalo hangs around in a lot of football games, and that secondary can pick it with the best of them. If Houston runs, I like them to walk here, but they are no guarantee to keep it on the ground for too long. My favorite pick this week is actually one you didn’t even list. I like the Cardinals to absolutely slap the Panthers around like a JV team. Arizona beats up opposing rushing attacks and that’s all the Panthers can really do. I see a long game for Jake Delhomme, if he’s even the guy at QB in this game. The match-up favors Arizona so much that they are my biggest sure thing of Week 8. Hope that helps!

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Ryan from Seattle asks, “Who do you start this week, Ryan Grant against Minnesota, Knowshon Moreno against Baltimore, or Donald Brown against San Francisco? Yeah, tough spot, appreciate any help you got. Non-PPR….”

Ryan, you are in a pickle. But I think the answer is Ryan Grant. The Packers got away from the run last time out, but there is, at the very least, some evidence that says Grant could do solid things against that ferocious Vikings defensive front. The Steelers gave their starting running back just 10 carries last week, but he plowed away for 69 yards in limited chances. Ryan got just 10 carries against the Vikes last time out, he went for 50 on those looks. The Packers have decided to keep Grant more involved, and it’s been a good thing, dominating the last two games where Grant carried 20+ times (24 in Detroit, 27 last week), and if they know what’s good for them, they’ll commit to him again this week. I don’t know if I see a touchdown, but 80 yards or so could be in the cards if the Pack has removed their offensive play calling from the pass-happy garbage can. Hope that helps, good luck!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 7 Fantasy Football

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Have some good ones early this week, why waste any more of your rancid time with my introduction, you want to get to the questions and answers like I want to get to my Philly Cheese cake that I’m not supposed to eat. So on with it. Again, you can always post your questions any time you want, just send them to me at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here all week!

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Kyle M-Dot of Ferndale, Washington asks, “Who do u think is the best running back in the NFL and who do u think will go to the Super Bowl?”

Thanks for the email my man. As for the best RB in the NFL, that’s a tough call. I think Adrian Peterson, as just a raw runner, is one of the toughest guys to bring down. What he did to one of the best run defenses in the league last week was pretty awesome. 140+ yards against that team is gnarly, but his strength and work ethic really makes him special. I don’t think his vision is awesome (like Jones-Drew or Brian Westbrook) but his ability to go through tacklers probably makes him the best RB in the NFL in my mind. He has awesome speed, really quick cuts, and is tough to tackle. If he didn’t have a case of the fumbles, and was a good receiver, he’d be one of the best ever.

As for the Super Bowl, I hate the Saints and have never been a big Colts fan, but they really seem tough to beat. I’ve always known they had good offenses, but the way their defenses have stepped up is pretty amazing. Also, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, two very different talent/prospect levels, are two of the best quarterbacks I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a lot. And despite losing recently, I like the chances the Eagles and Giants have of possibly upsetting the Saints and getting to the big game. Both really struggled last week, but one game is one game, and a season is a longer deal. A couple AFC teams that will give the Colts a run, the Ravens and Patriots could sneak in as well. It could also be magic for Denver, but I’m not quite buying that yet. Those are my favorites!

David from Minnesota writes, “If I had to pick up a WR who would be the best pickup? Crabtree or Lance Moore and why? It sounds like Crabtree will be starting. Will he make any type of impact?”

Tough call, everyone in New Orleans seems like a crap shoot every week because they are all open and Drew doesn’t seem to have a favorite, but I think lance had the 2nd most amount of targets with 7, and last year he certainly was Drew’s favorite guy to go to. But Crabtree has soooo much talent, and the 49ers seem determined to use him. I’m personally stunned that a Mike Singletary team would start Crabtree right out of the gate, unless he’s been dominating at practice, in which case he’s worth a look. I think both these guys are solid pick-ups. Lance is in a group of productive receivers while Crabtree is in a run first offense and has been out of football for a while, both have their downsides. I think Lance is the safe pick, Crabtree is the wildcard. I imagine Lance will end up with more fantasy points from now until the end of the season. But it will likely be close.

Tim Lynch says, “Papa, This year we allow return men to get the yards and touchdowns. There are two on the waiver wire this week. I have a spot for one of them, Which should I pick up? Domenik Hixon (They are playing Arizona: should be a lot of opportunities) or Sammie Straughter (They are playing NE and should also get a lot of opportunities. Thanks for the help!”

Tim, I think both guys are great options, but Sammie Stroughter just took the job in Tampa, and I know they will be allowing lots of scores all year long. I’m not sure that the job is his to keep, but I think they like his speed in the open field, so I imagine he’ll stay there. I think the Giants will allow a lot less scores than the Bucs, obviously, so Hixon won’t get as many returns as the season goes forward, but this week, Arizona might be able to put some points on the board and give Hixon chances. But you might want to take into account Niel Rackers, he is one of the top Touch back kickers in the league, booming 9 into the end zone already this season on just 24 attempts. Then again, Stephen Gostkowski has 10 touch backs, but on 13 more kick offs attempts. Tough call for sure. I think the Patriots end up kicking off about 7-10 times, and that would have me give the nod to Stroughter. But in both situations there’s upside. I just think Sammie gets more looks as the season goes forward. Plus, I’ve always thought a lot of the guys since he was a youngster at Oregon State. Thanks for the email.

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Mark B from San Antonio, Texas asks, “I’m being asked for a trade for either Gore or Forte straight up for Steve Smith (CAR). I’ve been starting Knox because players receive return yards in our league and scores double digits for me. The other WR slot I haven’t settled on, and then I run 3 backs. My RBs and WRs are as follows: Forte, Slaton, Ray Rice, Mendenhall, Frank Gore, Jonathan Stewart – Braylon Edwards, Vincent Jackson, Johnny Knox, and Eddie Royal. Should I take this trade in hopes for a bigger outing from Smith later this season? Thanks for your help on this.”

Boy, you have some great running back options – Gore, Mend, Ray, and Forte, and then Jonathan Stewart just in case, gotta love that group, and yes, that leaves you room to make a trade for a solid receiver. While I absolutely love Steve Smith’s game, it seems like the Panthers and mostly Jake Delhomme, don’t have the ability to use Steve. I think Knox is a solid option in return yardage leagues – he gets catches as a receiver, makes big plays, and that extra 100 or so yardage from kick returns is nice too. I would not trade Gore for Steve Smith. Gore is an awesome back that IS his team’s offense. Keep holding on to him. Forte, I don’t know, he’s a tough gamble – he’s been bad to start the year, his value seems to be gone, and maybe him for Steve would be a decent trade -but I feel like you might be able to trade for a better receiving option with one of those backs. I like Steve, one of my favorite players in the game, but questions abound in that passing game. I would probably pass on this trade, but Forte for Smith has possible upside for you, definitely, just a little bit too much risk for something that seems all but sure. With Eddie Royal getting some kick return duties for the Broncos, you have yet another option, a starting receiver that also gets those precious kick return yardage. I think you’re okay at WR, and am not sure how much SS would upgrade you right now. If Joe Montana signs with Carolina, then Steve’s value might go up….
Papa

Fantasy Football Picks: Ten for Wednesday

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Chad Pennington is out for the season and in comes the youngster Chad Henne to show everyone he’s better than he played in relief last week. Henne has a better arm and can throw the deep ball better than Chad, but will he play mistake free enough to keep the starting gig? Tyler Thigpen was sent to Miami to be Henne’s back-up, and I truly think that was the Dolphins’ intentions. I think Henne keeps the job and ends up helping out a guy like Ted Ginn Jr….   Darren McFadden fumbled the ball three times, doesn’t see the hole that well, and has 11 guys focused on trying to tackle him as soon as he gets the ball. I’m not saying dump McFadden, in fact, I think you could get the guy for next to nothing and he’s worth the risk, but I don’t think I’d start him unless you are desperate or he does some actual damage (though this week he has a pretty decent match-up if you want to gamble)….   Speaking of JaMarcus Russell, can a guy be any less confident throwing a football than he is? He can’t even seem to connect with Zach Miller anymore. After ending the season on a very high note, winning a couple games, completing a respectable percentage, and throwing 6-2 TD to INT, many thought Russell would take the next step. If the next step was all rotten and dropped off into a hot lava pit, that was right on the button…..    Eli Manning has been very good. That’s hard for me to write down, but what more can I say? I thought teams would be able to stack up against the run, but you just can’t do that to Eli anymore. His receivers are better than anyone thought, and maybe he’s worth all that money the Giants invested into him after all. That makes me sick to my stomach, or maybe that’s just the burgers……    Jake Delhomme may be just about done, but I have to blame the play calling for the Panthers’ complete demise. DeAngelo Williams had 11 carries for the love of god. 11. And the Panthers were on top and or tied for quite some time. Not only did he not get the ball enough, but in 11 carries he totaled over 60 yards. That looks good to me. Seems like if you did a lot more of handing him the ball you’d win a game or two…..    Aaron Rodgers has not looked good through the first three games. He still has decent fantasy numbers, but for the majority of game time he’s been overthrowing receivers, picking the wrong guy, and just flat out looking rusty. He’ll be fine, don’t worry, but how often does this kind of thing happen? A guy walks through the pre-season completing every pass he throws only to struggle out of the gates. It’s weird…..    Game smarts: where have you gone? Seneca Wallace, special teams players, NFL coaches – I feel like the first three games have been an interview for new reality show titled “Dumb is the new Fun”. How can quarterbacks run out of bounds 6 yards behind the line of scrimmage when all you have to do is throw the ball into the freaking stands? How can a kick return guy run out of bounds only to sprint in front of his teammates on a rolling punt and be the first to touch it? How can Jim Mora call a 2 yard out to Julius Jones on 4th and 3 with 29 seconds to go? How can Chad Pennington run a QB sneak for a first down on 3rd and 1 with a minute left in the game when he needs a touchdown to score? These first few weeks have been crazy, but somebody needs to teach these guys some rules. Good lord!…..   Matt Forte, ugh. 21 carries for 66 yards, against the Hawks? At least Jay Cutler checked it down to him a couple times, but this was supposed to be the game that Forte stepped up his production. Needless to say, that wasn’t really the case…..   LenDale White might not be getting enough carries to be fantasy worthy, but Chris Johnson won’t hold up with 25 touches a game all season. As much as I love Chris’s game, White is going to get an opportunity, and he’s going to run with it. He’s run well despite limited looks. Keep your eye on the big guy…..  How does Tampa bench Byron Leftwich? I know they are struggling and 0-3 and young and maybe want to see what one of their young guys can do, but Byron was only good through the first two weeks. The Giants were in his face every snap last Sunday, but Byron’s numbers were goo prior to that. I don’t think Josh Johnson will be as good as Lefty, and Josh Freeman is not ready either. Interesting move, not a good sign if you own Kellen Winslow, Antonio Bryant, or even a running back. Not good if you own Byron either.

Trick or Treat?: Week 2 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Welcome to Red Red Ryan’s weekly “Trick or Treat” section, where I, Red Red Ryan will break down some of the performances from the previous week and tell you whether or not you are being tricked or you can expect the same treat the rest of the way.

Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal:
Does a quarterback make the wide receivers? Or do the wide receivers make the quarterback? In my opinion the quarterback make the wide receiver, and that spells trouble for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. I’m not saying that they are bad receivers, I think they are elite receivers, however they have a terrible quarterback throwing them the ball. In 2008 with Jay Cutler locking in on them Marshall caught 104 passes for 1265 yards and 6 TD’s and Royal caught 91 passes for 980 yards and 5 TD’s. After two weeks in the 2009 season Marshall and Royal are on pace for less than half of their stats from 2008. Marshall is on pace for just 56 receptions and Royal for only 40. These numbers are very close to Devin Hester’s 51 receptions for 665 and 3 TD’s, who was Orton’s number 1 receiving target from 2008. Meanwhile in Chicago; Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, and Devin Hester all have more receptions than Marshall and Royal. You are going to get what you’re getting, no trick here.
Verdict: Treat

Matt Forte:
Tough going so far in 2009 for second year running back Matt Forte. In Week 1 he rushed for 55 yards on 25 carries and for the first time in his career he went without a catch. Matt had a bit of a bounce back game in week 2 catching 5 passes for 33 yards while rushing 13 times for 29 yards. It was nice to see Forte getting some touches in the passing game after the Week 1 loss. I think we will see Lovie Smith’s influence by seeing more passes to their playmaker out of the backfield. As for Forte’s lack of rushing yards, I think we see a big change in the Week 3 match-up versus the Seahawks. I expect Forte to get back on track this week against a beat up and generally soft run defense, and carry that momentum with him for the rest of the season.
Verdict: Trick

Eli Manning:
Which quarterback has the 5th most passing yards in the NFL? That’s right, it’s Eli Manning. Thus far in 2009 Eli has sliced and diced his way through 2 top 7 passing defenses from the 2008 season. I know it’s early, and history shows he’s bound to have a 3 INT game in the next 2 weeks, but I just don’t think it’s going to happen this year. And now, I couldn’t find any crazy red headed stats to back me up, because the truth is he usually goes interception happy. But if you look at the Giants schedule coming up they play against some pretty bad pass defenses, and unless the “G-men” can get the ground game going Eli will be throwing early and often to his underrated group of young wide outs.
Verdict: Treat

Cedric Benson:
Woo Hoo!! Cedric Benson is 6th in the league in rushing. Nice middle round pick taking the last starting running back available. Time to get some return from Cedric while his value is at his highest. Yes, his highest. So far Cedric has rushed for 76 yards against the Broncos and 141 yards against the Packers. Both teams in the bottom 6 rush defense from a year ago. The real test will be over the next 7 weeks when he faces the Steelers and Ravens twice, with the Bears in between. I believe Benson is a #3 RB and should only be started in a good match up. So if you can sell high on him, and buy low on a guy like Steve Slaton, I think you will be better off at seasons end.
Verdict: Trick

NFL Fantasy Football Advice: Ask Papa Weimer Week 3

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I’m old. I’m tired. I’m grumpy. My ass hurts from sitting in this chair. Where can I get one of those soft little pillow doughnut things to sit on anyway? Note to family: get my ace a nice chair for Christmas or you’re not getting any inheritance. I’ve had questions screaming in this week, people wondering which guy to start, who to trade, who to target in trades. These are the questions and answers I picked out to share.

Dennis in and out of the US asks, “I have a couple guys that I think are overachieving, and I know there are some players out there underachieving. Of these four guys (Percy Harvin, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and Santonio Holmes) which ones would you try to trade, and are there any guys you’d try to grab while their value is down?

Red Red Ryan makes a pretty good point about Cedric Benson, but I think he’s still a solid guy to have on your squad, he and the three other guys you mention should all have solid years, but you’re right in assessing their value right now, it’s probably higher than it should be. I would probably try to move Benson, Harvin, and Williams and keep Holmes, if you can get some good value. I think Holmes might be a treat for fantasy owners that paid the price for his services this season. He’s getting tons of targets on a Steelers team that doesn’t run the ball well, and is going to throw a lot more this season. Plus, he’s a playmaker. But like I said, all four of these guys are solid, I just think Holmes holds onto his value all season long, while a couple of these guys will fall off. In a trade, I would try to acquire Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith (Carolina), Ryan Grant, Knowshon Moreno, and Daren McFadden. All of those guys have pretty low value considering their ability, and all look like they are going to gain some value this week. I think all of them will have pretty solid seasons. Forte and Slaton have begun the season with really tough match-ups. Portis has an easier schedule coming up. Steve Smith’s value is still suffering despite being heavily targeted early in the season. Ryan Grant will get more rushing attempts from here forward. Moreno is dynamic and will only get better as he gets used to the speed of the game. And McFadden is still a superior talent. If you can trade some guys flying high for a couple guys that haven’t impressed owners, I think it’s a good move.

David from Minnesota asks, “Would you trade LT away to get Ray Rice? How about Leon Washington and TJ Houshmanzadeh moving to get LT and Donald Driver or Percy Harvin? Thanks in advance!”

David, thanks for the questions. These must be different leagues as you’re trading away LT in one, and getting him in another. On the first half, Yeah, I think so. I think LT will be fine. But Ray Rice is solid too – tough call, but I’d probably go with LT if I had the choice. On the second question, It just depends what you think about the Hawks and their recent string of injuries to start the season. I personally think they’ll get healthy here very soon, and TJ Housh will be huge, especially in PPR leagues – so I would much rather have him than Driver or Harvin, even though he’s firmly behind them in rankings thus far. Leon looks like he’s getting at least 20 touches per game, which should lead to some big days. ON the other side, as much as I love LT, I’m not sure he’s going to be getting much more than 20 touches the rest of the way. The Jets have a stellar offensive line, better than the Chargers if you ask me. If I had to choose, between LT and Leon, I would go with LT, like I said – but I don’t think I’d give up Housh to do so – his value is still high on my board.

Pretty Patty in Seattle asks, “Weims, having trouble picking my starters this week. Who do you like this week between these guys. (Need to pick 3 to go with my other two starting receivers, colston and manningham) Thanks! (Steven Jackson, Darren Mcfadden, Leshon McCoy, Braylon Edwards, Johnny Knox, Nate Burleson) PPR league…

Pretty, McCoy would be a sure thing if, and only if, you’re sure Westbrook isn’t playing. He should get lots of carries against the Chiefs porous run defense, and if it’s a PPR league I’m sure he’ll get a handful of catches as well. Steven Jackson is one of the three no matter what. The Packers have been terrible against the run, and I’m sure Jackson will be a huge part of the Rams game plan as they try to trick the Packers out of a win. Bulger can only throw 10 yards accurately, which puts Jackson in his range most of the time. Plus, he’s just flat out the best player in this group, and you have to go with your horses. I think another guy would be Braylon Edwards. Surprisingly, the Ravens have been pretty terrible against the pass, as Brodie Croyle of all clowns, had a good outing against them in Week 1, and Rivers torched them to the tune of one billion yards in Week 2. The problem with the Ravens is they are so good against the run, and they’ll likely be up early, so the Browns will probably have to throw a lot. I usually don’t like Cleveland offensive players, but 7 catches and 100 yards from Edwards wouldn’t surprise me. If Westy is going to play, and from what I read, it looks like he will, I think I’d go with McFadden. Now this one is a little tricky because Denver has been great against the run this season, but then again, you have to look at who they’ve played. Cincinnati and Cleveland aren’t two rushing attacks that strike fear into my heart. So I’m not sure they’re as good as they are lucky to have been scheduled to pissy running attacks to start the season. The Raiders can really run, and McFadden should get the ball more this week. JaMarcus Russell has been a joke (he’s barely batting .350 through the air, gross) so Denver could stack up against the run – but I still think they don’t have elite front 7 power, and McFadden should have his best yardage output of the season. If you don’t want to go with McFadden, take a chance on Nate or Knox. Nate’s been getting targeted lots of times, and obviously a dynamic touchdown threat, he could get to the house against a Bears secondary that doesn’t really have the speed to cover elite WRs. Nate might not be elite, but his speed and touchdown play potential is definitely amongst the games best. Knox is looking like one of Cutler’s favorite targets, and the Hawks secondary isn’t an exciting shut down group at the moment. I just think the Bears will run a lot more this week against a D-front that doesn’t look powerful after Frank Gore had his way with them. So I’d side with Nate, but just barely. Hope that helps, Patty. Good luck!

2009 Fantasy Football Tiered Player Rankings: Lucky Lester’s Top 220

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I’m back again with yet another fantasy article, this one rates out my top 220 players for this season and this season only. I’ve already busted out a dynasty chart (without rookies) for the next three years, you could check that out here. It’s an older article, and while some things have changed, that look should give you a decent view of the future if you find yourself in a dynasty league late this fall – but remember, it happened before the draft, and thus is without rookies, a valuable resource in dynasty leagues.

I’ve also spent a little time busting out some tiered rankings for each position, hopefully helping you on draft day – check that out here. I’m breaking these down into tiers as well, because a ranking list is nothing without a little crying game. Also, looking at my final rankings and my earlier tiered rankings, you’ll see some small differences. Why? Well, that’s because things happen over a month that give me reason to move players up and down. Nothing is concrete!

When I rank players, I’m not saying, “this is going to be the final points standings at years’ end”, no, I’m saying that this is the order of value, fantasy points, and upside going into draft day, a sort of cheat sheet to help you assess value on D-Day. Hope this helps!

First Tier

1.	Adrian Peterson – Favre signing just enough to get him on top.
2.	Maurice Jones Drew
3.	Matt Forte
4.	Michael Turner – I might not be giving him enough credit, looks great!

Second Tier

5.	LaDainian Tomlinson
6.	Steve Slaton
7.	Frank Gore
8.	Andre Johnson
9.	Larry Fitzgerald
10.	DeAngelo Williams – J-Stew’s injury woes has Williams moving up.
11.	Steven Jackson
12.	Chris Johnson
13.	Randy Moss – Randy is Tom’s favorite weapon.
14.	Brian Westbrook

Third Tier

15.	Steve Smith
16.	Calvin Johnson
17.	Clinton Portis – All four of these backs are great value picks…
18.	Ronnie Brown - …
19.	Ryan Grant - …
20.	Brandon Jacobs – His O-line is the stuff championships are made of.
21.	Marion Barber
22.	Tom Brady
23.	Drew Brees

Forth Tier

24.	Anquan Boldin – Best #2 in the league.
25.	Reggie Wayne – Still one of the best with one of the best tossing him balls.
26.	Greg Jennings
27.	Darren McFadden – all the talent in the world, lots of touches.
28.	Roddy White
29.	Terrell Owens
30.	Marques Colston

Fifth Tier

31.	Marshawn Lynch
32.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Housh looks like a 115 catch guy to me.
33.	Eddie Royal – Marshall moves down, Eddie moves up!
34.	Vincent Jackson
35.	Dwayne Bowe
36.	Derrick Ward – A pretty risky pick considering RB talent in Tampa Bay.
37.	Larry Johnson
38.	Knowshon Moreno – I still believe!
39.	Wes Welker
40.	Jason Witten

Sixth Tier

41.	Reggie Bush
42.	Joseph Addai – Running with something to prove, should be decent.
43.	Chad Johnson
44.	Anthony Gonzalez – This guy is crafty.
45.	Pierre Thomas
46.	Roy Williams
47.	Kurt Warner
48.	Peyton Manning
49.	DeSean Jackson – Has looked better in year 2, moving up my list.
50.	Aaron Rodgers
51.	Phillip Rivers
52.	Antonio Gates
53.	Tony Romo
54.	Donovan McNabb
55.	LenDale White
56.	Felix Jones
57.	Thomas Jones
58.	Julius Jones – No love for JJ, I think he’ll be solid.
59.	Ray Rice
60.	Dallas Clark
61.	Tony Gonzalez

Seventh Tier

62.	Matt Schaub – Please stay healthy and prove me right!
63.	Lee Evans
64.	Bernard Berrien – Brett at least gives Berrien more flavor.
65.	Matt Hasselbeck – Matt’s moving up my list.
66.	Santana Moss
67.	Braylon Edwards
68.	Jonathan Stewart – Many upside here.
69.	Jamal Lewis – His offense may be terrible, but his O-line is solid.
70.	Tim Hightower
71.	Carson Palmer – Hurt again?
72.	Lance Moore
73.	Beanie Wells
74.	Jay Cutler – Looked better than I thought he would, but still not top notch.
75.	Chris Cooley
76.	Matt Ryan – I’m not believing 25+ touchdowns in year 2.
77.	Brandon Marshall – I hear he’s having some problems.

Eighth Tier

78.	Leon Washington – I think he’ll be used more this season.
79.	Cedric Benson
80.	Willie Parker
81.	Hines Ward
82.	Owen Daniels
83.	Greg Olsen
84.	Santonio Holmes
85.	Jericho Cotchery
86.	Antonio Bryant
87.	Devin Hester – Hasn’t shown much in the pre-season, should change though.

Ninth Tier

88.	David Garrard
89.	Matt Cassel
90.	Kellen Winslow – has yet to catch a ball in the pre-season.
91.	Torry Holt
92.	Rashard Mendenhall
93.	Ben Roethlisberger
94.	Donald Brown
95.	Jerious Norwood – One of the best back-up backs in the league.
96.	Darren Sproles
97.	Ahmad Bradshaw – looks really good in the pre-season.
98.	John Carlson
99.	Kyle Orton
100.	Nate Burleson – people are forgetting about him, do.
101.	Donnie Avery – Should be healthy by week one, #1 receiver late.
102.	Derrick Mason – old and good, not unlike the guy right below.
103.	Donald Driver

Tenth Tier

104.	Trent Edwards – Like him with Lee and TO out wide.
105.	Fred Jackson
106.	Kevin Walter
107.	Brett Favre – Hmmm…. I wonder.
108.	Zach Miller
109.	Dominik Hixon
110.	Cadillac Williams – Looked good to me, hope he gets more touches.
111.	LeSean McCoy
112.	Nate Washington – Better than people know, hurt early, good late pick.
113.	Joe Flacco
114.	Josh Morgan
115.	Daunte Culpepper – If the job was his, guarantee, I’d rank him higher.
116.	Chad Pennington
117.	Jason Campbell
118.	Ted Ginn Jr. – Super fast WR coming into his own.
119.	Steve Breaston
120.	Chris Henry – Yes, the #3 is ranked higher than the #2.
121.	Vinsanthe Shiancoe
122.	Earnest Graham
123.	Laveranues Coles
124.	Percy Harvin
125.	Jabar Gaffney
126.	Michael Crabtree – This guy is a soap opera already.
127.	Tony Scheffler
128.	Dustin Keller
129.	Fred Taylor
130.	Kenny Britt – Moving on up, lots of talent.
131.	Kevin Curits – Not sure if his upside is high enough for me to get late.
132.	Correll Buckhalter
133.	Jake Delhomme
134.	Jeremy Shockey
135.	Willis McGahee
136.	Chester Taylor
137.	Michael Bush
138.	Shaun Hill
139.	Eli Manning
140.	James Davis
141.	Shonn Greene – Like his talent, just don’t like 3rd RBs too much.
142.	JaMarcus Russell – has looked solid so far this pre-season.
143.	Le’Ron McClain
144.	Sammy Morris
145.	Justin Forsett

Eleventh Tier

146.	Laurence Maroney
147.	Tashard Choice
148.	Marc Bulger
149.	Chaz Schillens – hurt early, but looks good to me.
150.	Patrick Crayton
151.	Michael Clayton
152.	Isaac Bruce
153.	Joey Galloway
154.	Mark Clayton
155.	Earl Bennett ¬– Not sure he is fast enough.
156.	Maurice Stovall – Could be in line for starting duties.
157.	Brady Quinn
158.	Bobby Engram
159.	Vernon Davis
160.	Mohammad Massoquoi
161.	Peyton Hillis
162.	Hakeem Nicks
163.	Jeremy Maclin – The speedster might be a nice second half pick-up.
164.	Mark Sanchez
165.	Glen Coffee
166.	Steve Smith (NYG)
167.	Chris Chambers
168.	Anthony Fasano
169.	Jamaal Charles
170.	Mike Bell
171.	Sidney Rice
172.	Edgerrin James
173.	Ricky Williams
174.	Troy Williamson – Has the speedster finally arrived?
175.	Deion Branch
176.	Justin Fargas
177.	Brandon Petitgrew
178.	Laurent Robinson – liked him better than Mike Jenkins in ATL too.
179.	Michael Jenkins
180.	Mushin Muhammad
181.	Kevin Boss
182.	Malcom Kelly
183.	Brent Celek
184.	David Clowney – Becoming number two?
185.	Mark Bradley
186.	Miles Austin
187.	Bo Scaife
188.	Ladell Betts
189.	JerMichael Finley
190.	Chris Brown – could be a TD stealer, but I doubt it.
191.	Devone Bess
192.	DeShawn Wynn
193.	Mike Walker
194.	James Jones
195.	Dominic Rhodes
196.	Pierre Garcon
197.	Jordy Nelson
198.	Michael Vick – In deep leagues, maybe?
199.	Limas Sweed – Nate Washington’s targets?
200.	Antwan Randel-El
201.	Deon Butler
202.	Kevin Jones
203.	Jonnie Lee Higgins
204.	Heath Miller
205.	Marion Manningham
206.	Robert Meachem
207.	Brian Robiskie
208.	Chase Coffman
209.	Todd Heap
210.	Brandon Jackson – Could be #2 still, had a tough camp.
211.	Byron Leftwich
212.	Matthew Stafford
213.	Kerry Collins
214.	Sage Rosenfels – So much for sleeper, thanks Brett!
215.	Matt Leinart
216.	Vince Young
217.	Chad Henne
218.	Samkon Gado
219.	Bernard Scott
220.	Tarvaris Jackson – Mr. Irrelevant could play well if he gets the chance.

Wing Man!: Not Every Superhero needs a Sidekick

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History supports what I’m saying here, not always can the dynamic of two super personalities, amazing talents, wonderfully crafted names and/or awkwardly revealing spandex outfits, fit together like Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson, or even a more well-known duo, Batman and Robin (and even the last two heroes might find it tougher together nowadays)… In fact, if you look at the big picture, it becomes more and more evident that not every Super-Hero needs a Sidekick. In fact, most of the big name stars produce more box office fantasy potential all by themselves in their own little uniforms (As you can easily recognize that even Batman does his best movies sans his puffy feathered bird of a sidekick).

There are a few guys I’m looking at this year where a certain sidekick is digging into the main man’s cover-value, and even a couple more stars that are getting matched up with other stars – two superheroes do not always make a friendly team: Wolverine, Punisher, Spiderman, Captain America.  You have to remember, when a team gets better, a fantasy player doesn’t always improve.

Scrappy Doo basically crushed a very good cartoon of young crime fighters. Scooby was doing a fine job begging for Scooby Snacks, being a scaredy dog, and being his pot-head friend’s best bud. All Scrappy did was come in and steal some of the spotlight, and since everyone loves a puppy, soon he was getting too much attention. Suddenly, the drop off happened and Scooby and his friends have never quite recovered.

And what about Jimmy Olsen, Superman’s pal, one of the only guys to know Supe’s identity – well, all he did was get his buddy into trouble at every turn. Did Superman ever need Jimmy? I think not.

Wolverine vs. Punisher? Spiderman fighting Captain America? It’s amazing that a couple guys looking for the same thing (in both instances) could get into such a fiasco with each other – but it happens.

These things happen in the “fantasy world” and they also happen in fantasy football. This season there are some sidekicks ready to help the team all the while stomping out some fantasy fire of their own teammates. And while most of these guys play for wins and losses instead of statistical superiority – the truth of the matter is… You and I don’t. Not in fantasy football anyway. So which gridiron heroes will have their value cut down to size by the Scrappy Doo’s, Jimmy Olsen’s, Wondergirl’s and Aqualad’s of the National Football League? Follow along closely…

Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen

This seems like the easiest one around. Matt Cassel found a new home with a new offensive genius taking over in Kansas City. But what about Thigpen? What about the guy that dominated down the stretch? What about Tyler Thigpen? If you look back at last season’s stats, you will see two new teammates ranked 2nd and 3rd amongst quarterbacks during last season’s second half. That’s right, you guessed it, Tyler Thigpen is number 2 and Matt Cassell was number 3. That Top 5 list looks like this… Drew Brees, Thigpen, Cassel, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. So, while many people probably don’t even know who Tyler Thigpen is, as he was really only a super hero fantasy star to those that picked him up for a late run into the post season (yes, that was me in more than a couple instances), he was still a star. Thigpen was 3 points shy of Drew Brees during those 10 weeks, and Brees had a brilliant season. But Cassel has the job, and surely Thigpen will suffer most in this match up of free agent pick ups turned fantasy playoff super heroes of 2008 turned teammates of 2009. This season will mark the first time in history that this situation will ever have taken place. Two young quarterbacks with huge statistical seasons meet up on the same team the very next year. But it is what it is, and Matt Cassel will be crushing the fantasy relevance of his teammate, and higher rated fantasy performer of last year’s second half. The team has gotten better, but Thigpen has lost his way.

Jay Culter and Matt Forte

Both players became fantasy stars in 2008. Matt Forte did so in his rookie season for a Bears team that used him as their main weapon, finishing a win away from the playoffs. Forte was as consistent as fantasy stars get, putting up solid numbers week after week as the Bears gave him the ball early and often. Jay Cutler was Mike Shanahan’s little buddy, a coach in uniform, the son he always wanted. Jay got the green light to throw any ball he wanted any time, and while that made Cutler one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football, it also ended Splinter’s long run as the head coach in Denver. That led to Josh McDaniels getting the reigns for the Broncos, which led to Cutler having a fit when McD wanted his former QB, which led to bagels being just another way to get cream cheese to your face, which led to Jay Cutler getting traded for 2 first round picks, a couple more picks, and a 6 pack of Chicago’s best brew. That dysfunctional set of circumstantial dominoes led to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, two rising fantasy stars, to meet up in Chicago’s backfield. Well goodness me. But whose value is effected more? Well, I would imagine that both players have a slight hit in value, but both could see their efficiency ratings moving on up. Crazy how fantasy and actual football can be so different. Matt Forte is likely to see less 8 man fronts (if any), while Cutler is likely to see more open secondaries with defenses actually paying attention to the run game in his offense. But, Forte will get less carries, less catches, and likely less touchdowns in 2009. Jay Cutler will almost surely have less yardage, fewer touchdown passes, while continuing to throw interceptions this season with the Bears. But Forte will get more yards per carry while Cutler’s QB rating will likely rise. They may make a nice duo, two young guys with their entire comic book careers in front of them, but this year both will suffer in the fantsy realm, losing the numbers from their days as single stars.

Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White

After years of lacking a #1 receiver, the Falcons finally came through with the coming of age of Roddy White. And after years of stumbling around losing seasons without another true offensive threat, Tony Gonzalez was traded to a city of bright fantasy youngsters making a name for themselves in the NFC South. But who will be the star in this receiving situation? The young up and comer or the old school TE that can stake his claim as one of the best ever? Only I have the answer you’re looking for. Both should fail to match last year’s top notch numbers. Say what you want about Dwayne Bowe’s rise to stardom or Matt Ryan being better than the Chiefs’ no-name quarterback last season, but neither piece of information will convince me that Tony G is in a better fantasy situation than he was last season. Last year, Bowe was still just the 2nd fiddle in KC’s passing game, with the attention of opposing defenses collapsing around Tony. And he may be relatively unknown, but I already showed you that Tyler Thigpen was no joke going down the stretch, so stop belittling the guy. Plus, KC threw the ball a lot last year, which is how Tony got so much fantasy love. Likewise, Roddy White was the only real threat in the passing game last season, but the Falcons ran so dang much that defenses had to bite on the play action. Matt Ryan locked onto his number one guy, and reasonably so, White was a yardage gaining machine for the Falcons. Now both top flight receivers will see differences in 2009. Tony Gonzalez will find himself in an offense that runs the ball as much as they throw which should cut down on his chances to get anywhere close to last season’s targets. Not only that but Roddy White is one of the best young receivers in the league, one that 2nd year QB Matt Ryan made a living throwing to in 2008 – so a repeat of last year’s totals should be close to impossible. And for Roddy, you know the Falcons are still going to run a ton, and a great tight end is a quarterback’s best friend, and his notoriety as a receiving threat should have defenses paying more attention to him this season – so his targets will likely fall as well. The Falcons offense should be great, even better than last season’s surprising numbers, but these two super-heroes won’t win as often in fantasy circles.

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene

This is definitely a case similar to Scrappy Doo’s fuse lighting to the dynamite under Scooby’s career. Thomas Jones had his best season as a pro. If anyone gained value from Brett’s arm last season it was Jones. Thomas finished 5th amongst running backs in non-ppr leagues, making him one of the best fantasy values of 2008. But in comes the younger cuter puppy hero drafted by the Jets. (Actually, Shonn Greene is a beast of a kid and as far as looks go Thomas may have the girls gushing after his bulging biceps, but you get the picture). Still, already Shonn is getting rave reviews in Jets camp, and with a new coach in town there’s no real loyalty to last season’s production. If Coach Ryan learned anything from his time in Baltimore it was that the best player plays no matter if he’s getting paid like Willis McGahee or Le’Ron McClain. That might be just the ignition Greene needs to up-end the 31 year old Thomas Jones’ career. This could definitely be a case of the sidekick back-up unproven option stealing too much of the star’s light, and slowly eating into that profile he worked so hard to build. Drop Thomas in your rankings, yes, but don’t completely ignore the guy. I’ve seen him falling way too far in Fantasy Drafts, and there’s a good chance he’s still a productive piece of the Jets rushing attack.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White

Last season it was Chris Johnson eating into White’s numbers, but this season the roles may be reversed. I’ve noticed Chris Johnson getting lots of fantasy love on draft days. But LenDale is now a much slimmer and still powerful version of himself. Everyone expected Chris Johnson to continue his growing percentage of carries from last season. After starting pretty equal, he was definitely the horse the Titans tried to ride down the stretch. But this season could be a lot more even than people are ready to believe. LenDale has always had a knack for the end-zone with very athletic feet for a big powerful back. Coming into camp in the best shape of his life, running faster than ever, and apparently buying into everything more than ever before makes him a sneaky thief to Johnson’s carries. When you add the often forgotten fact that LenDale is smack dab in the midst of a contract season, he has even more to play for, a future contract and a starting gig (if the Titans don’t want to pay the man his money). So before you draft Chris Johnson with all his speed and excitement and all that man-love you have for him – remember, there’s a big bad touchdown thieving guy from USC that not only has something to prove, but money to earn in 2009. Chris should still be a nice player in 2009, he’s a great young back, but expecting even more impressive numbers in 2009 might disappoint you this season.

Dynasty/Keeper Rankings TOP 112: 2009 Fantasy Football

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Its quite unlike me to do a fantasy football rankings article toward the end of March, close enough to the draft that I should be focussed solely on the new cats entering the league, but unable to really include them because of the reality that their new uniforms have yet to be selected, and thus their bright future yet to be predicted. But this is going to be different.

There have been a number of emails asking me to do a fantasy article ranking players in a Dynasty League format. Dynasty leagues are those in which you keep all of the players that you draft, therefor taking ages, contracts, and their long term future more into account than in your yearly re-draft leagues or even leagues with a small number of keepers (1-3). Re-drafts in a dynasty format are often just rookie/free agent drafts and the veteren players only change teams if moved by their respective owner, either to the waiver wire or through a trade. This format has become more and more popular as it gives fantasy owners the feeling of team ownership, building from the ground up, often choosing to decide between winning now or building for later. It also gives losing teams something to look forward to, or the ability to trade crafty veterans for youth moving forward. It’s a whole new fantasy world, no doubt about it. You’re looking for solid production for at least 3 seasons – that allows you to continue to build through drafts and win now.

In many dynasty leagues that are starting this season, there will be a veteran draft in a snake format followed by a rookie draft in the opposite snake format. 1-12 and back for one, then 12-1 and back for the next. It evens out the board a bit, giving the teams drafting late a chance to make up for their lack of Top-5 power and take a blue-chip rookie going forward. But we’ll talk about rookies in the next few months, and closer to the start of the 2009 season.

I am ranking these players based on a format that starts this lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D. That format gives wide receivers a little added value based on the fact that you start 3 of them compared to just 2 RBs. Also, the point system is a PPR (point per reception) format, which many leagues have moved to. That also gives WRs a little added bonus, the same goes for pass catching running backs. QBs get 6 points for touchdowns just like everyone else, and other than that, the scoring is very normal. Under this scoring format last season, the top 4 point scoring options were Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Kurt Warner – in that order. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were the only non-quarterbacks in the Top 8, and DeAngelo Williams finished with 6 more points than Matt Forte to take the running back title. That doesn’t mean QBs hold more value than RBs, same with WRs, but it does put points into perspective a little bit.

I won’t be ranking D’s or K’s because I don’t care enough to do it. Also there’s some clutter in the middle a bit, that I argued with myself about a lot, but that’s the order I went with and I’ll own it. Throw in a comment (or email my uncle -papaweimer50@hotmail.com, i pretty much run his old pathetic life anyway – haha) and let me know what you think.  Can’t fit them all in 112 spots…

Without further jib-jab and point scoring hog-wash, these are my 2009 dynasty fantasy rankings pre-draft. This is, more or less, how I think they’ll rate out over the next three seasons combined.


  1. Maurice Jones-Drew (absolute stud, and will get more carries and touches this season, just like Josh said, this guy’s point per touch numbers are absurd)
  2. Adrian Peterson (most people’s number one, should have his best year next season)
  3. Matt Forte (lots of touches for Matt, especially through the air, great feet for a big guy)
  4. Chris Johnson (Some people thought he was too small, the Titans didn’t, they win)
  5. Michael Turner (Justifiably some say he’s #1, his age and full load drop him a few spots in my Dynasty rankings)
  6. Steven Jackson (still very young and very talented – not much help in St. Louis, but the talent is there)
  7. Larry Fitzgerald (this guy is basically unstoppable)
  8. DeAngelo Williams (I’ve always liked his running style, and despite the great back-up behind him, he still ranks high)
  9. Andre Johnson (the only other non RB in my Top 10, AJ big brother’s DBs all year long)
  10. Marion Barber (he’s not going to get picked this high in drafts, but a return to prominence for MBIII is almost a guarantee)
  11. Calvin Johnson (if he were on a better team, this guy would be fighting Fitz, still his per touch numbers are awesome and he’s only getting better as that terrible Lions team improves – if Cutler goes there, watch out)
  12. Frank Gore (always one of my favorites, the center point of a run first offense, talent high, but injuries keep him out of the Top 10)
  13. Greg Jennings (young, strong, great young QB, the more touches he gets the better)
  14. Steve Slaton (some people see Slaton as a 3rd Down back, too small, but he’ll always be better than Fragile Reggie)
  15. Brandon Jacobs (Jacobs runs too hard to stay injury free, despite being the size of a D-end, but while he’s in he’s good for 100 yards and a TD – plus he’s young)
  16. Reggie Bush (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be lower, still in a PPR league he’s a solid play 20th RB last season missing 6+ games – + meaning he missed most of a couple other games)
  17. Roddy White (Roddy deserves more credit – he’s a stud – a go to guy for a great young QB on an improving team)
  18. Anquan Boldin (a couple donkeys say Boldin isn’t a #1, haha, I hope he goes somewhere else and proves everyone wrong)
  19. Steve Smith (His age – and physicality – drops him a bit, but he’s that close to Roddy and ‘Quan – and as fun to watch as anyone in the league – look how good he makes Delhomme look sometimes)
  20. Phillip Rivers (So what if he throws marshmallows, his team is turning pass happy, plays in a terrible division, and is just 27 years old – he’ll toss 40 TDs one of these years – and we’re the exact same age, to the day – it’s fate! ha)
  21. Marques Colston (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be higher)
  22. Kevin Smith (He won’t go this high, I promise, but invest now and you’ll reap the benefits of this talented back later)
  23. Brandon Marshall (If it weren’t for his ability to “find himself in bad situations” – hide and seek champ – he’d rank higher)
  24. Clinton Portis (Clinton will be 28 in September, going on 32 – I love the guy’s fight, but that drops the talented back into the 20s)
  25. Drew Brees (This guy plays tricks on defenses – the only problem is that I don’t know how much longer that idiot running this team will have a head coaching job, and another guy would surely run a more conservative and smarter offense)
  26. Ryan Grant (He may have struggled a bit last season, but he’s young and this offense will get better and rely on him more heavily next season)
  27. Joseph Addai (I can’t quite give up on Addai yet, but he’s never really impressed me as a runner. He’s thrown up some solid stat lines, but aside from pure numbers he doesn’t impress me as much as he does others)
  28. Peyton Manning (Elder Manning is 33, but still has a handful of good years left in him – but he’ll be 36 in 3 years, and you never know how age, and a new coach, will change a guy)
  29. Ronnie Brown (Ronnie will go under the radar in drafts, and this might even be a little low for one of the best all around backs in the league)
  30. Tony Romo (I might take Romo over Manning, but I wonder the impact of losing TO and how it will effect Tony, still a top flight QB though, and young)
  31. Tom Brady (Nobody does it like Tom – but his knee still has questions, and this team can’t be young forever)
  32. Reggie Wayne (he’s actually getting up there in age a bit, 31 or so, he’ll have a couple real good years, then start to die off, which is why he falls a bit now)
  33. Dwayne Bowe (Dwayne Bowe, watch Anquan Boldin films, that’s going to be you in a year or two – Bowe could break into the Top 10 this year)
  34. Aaron Rodgers (Explosive young arm with a great receiving corps and an improving offense – only his second year – could be great)
  35. Darren McFadden (I don’t care what people say, this is probably too low – still, I can’t put a Raider higher than Bo Jackson’s old number – Bo knows Al Davis is a team killing psycho path!)
  36. Eddie Royal (this looks like a reach now, but he’s like Wes Welker with elite speed and great maneuverability)
  37. Matt Ryan (this may be a reach, but I’m ranking for the next 3 years, and I’d love to have Matty Ice when he matures)
  38. Randy Moss (Randy’s old, but still basically unguardable with Tom Brady hucking footballs – only a couple real good years left though which drops him a bit)
  39. Marshawn Lynch (Obviously keep an eye on his situation, the kid will be suspended, and has been a question mark since draft day – on the football field he’s a great RB option)
  40. Braylon Edwards (very good player when he’s on, yet quite drop-happy and not as physical as his body – should be much better than he was last season, and still very young – doesn’t have great speed though)
  41. Derrick Ward (Could be an interesting time share in Tampa, but they brought Ward in to be the guy, and though he’s never been a beacon of health, he’s a very physical runner with good vision, and this O-line is underrated – he’s a young 29 though)
  42. Jonathan Stewart (Might seem ridiculous, but I’d rather have JS than Westbrook or LT, and this guy’s a backup)
  43. Brian Westbrook (This is where age shows it’s ugly face a bit, Westy might be a Top 5 guy this coming season but he’ll be 30 during this year and has always had health issues – still a great player though, just don’t overbid in Dynasty Leagues)
  44. LaDainian Tomlinson (I think LT has at least one really good season left in him, remember Michael Turner just had an unreal season while LT really struggled – and by the way, they were only 7 fantasy point apart – LT still has it, for at least another year)
  45. Vincent Jackson (Now’s the time, before Phillip uses Jackson as his number one for a full season)
  46. Jason Witten (I don’t think much of TEs, but Witten is the #1 in Dallas, don’t be confused by Jerry telling you it’s Roy Williams – oh, and Witten is a flat out stud)
  47. TJ Houshmanzadeh (it’s unbelievable how solid his numbers were last year despite being forked in one of the worst offenses in football – he’s perfect for the Seahawks and unless he’s cursed with injuries like all Hawks’ receivers, he should be solid – but he’s 32 this season – which drops him a bit)
  48. Carson Palmer (remember when he was in the Peyton, Tom, and Drew draft area? Well, he’ll get back there – this guy has all the tools – probably a good time to invest)
  49. Wes Welker (he might not be flashy, but he’s a PPR dynamo and very good at what he does, not PPR, not as good)
  50. Matt Cassel (risky? maybe – but I’ll risk it on a leader I really like on a team with talent to catch passes and a new offensive genius as his head coach – not as risky as it may sound as I agree with McDaniels, I’d rather have Cassel than Cutler)
  51. Jay Cutler (Jay might have been higher before he pouted his way out of Denver, I’m just not impressed with grown men acting like entitled little bitches, what can I say – still, he’s a great talent with a rocket arm)
  52. Willis McGahee (sometimes sportswriters take chances, I’m taking one on a guy I don’t like all that much, I’m saying Willis turns it around and finishes well above this ranking – still, the risk brings him down a bit)
  53. Matt Schaub (this is the season for Matt to lead his team to the playoffs and stay injury free, just that alone will put him in the Top 10 QBs)
  54. Antonio Gates (Gates is moving fast toward 30, and his hoops background is rearing it’s ugly head – for those of you in fantasy basketball, you know exactly what I mean – still, he’s a touchdown machine and Rivers knows it)
  55. Ben Roethlisberger (Big Ben will be better this season, he just needs to stay healthier, and improved line will help that)
  56. DeSean Jackson (I like him a lot, and think he’ll be a very good one in Philly, despite his tiny frame)
  57. Felix Jones (something tells me he’ll get used more this season, now might be a good time to get this speedy young runner)
  58. Santonio Holmes (interesting cat, but very, very good – should see more balls, but don’t overpay for Super Bowl glory)
  59. Donovan McNabb (Right above TO, planned that – McNabb will be an old 33 this season, and with no sure contract situation and last years’ struggles, I can’t guarantee anything form Donovan, except that he’s one of the best QBs in the league on a pretty damn good football team)
  60. Terrell Owens (A one year contract interests me always, but he’ll likely never get a longer one, still – one of the best WRs playing every single season for next year’s contract – I’ll take a chance on him, even in Buffalo – he’s older, no doubt, but in pretty good shape anyway)
  61. Lee Evans (Despite Edwards’ struggles, I still think he’ll be solid – add TO as a guy to take some pressure off Evans and I think Lee has a nice year – even if TO leaves next season, Evans will still be an elite talent)
  62. Eli Manning (I hate to do it, but I had to include Pouty-face in here somewhere, it’s personal, so he might be better than this)
  63. Santana Moss (In the 2nd season of Zorn’s system, this whole offense will move more efficiently, and Moss will benefit – turns 30 this year, but WRs should go worry free until 33 or so)
  64. Roy Williams (he’s young, has had a couple really good seasons, is the #1 in Dallas on a solid offensive team with a very good young quarterback – hell, this is too low – but there’s obviously some risk here, a guy with more ballsy would put him at 44)
  65. Antonio Bryant (I just can’t be sure about Bryant – what a great finish, scoring more points over the last 10 games than any receiver in football, that has to be worth something – he’s this far down because, well, he was out of football the year before last, can’t ignore that really)
  66. Bernard Berrian (steal on draft day I think – probably should rank him a little higher, I actually like Sage throwing him the ball)
  67. Anthony Gonzalez (something tells me that Anthony will see a lot of balls over the next 3 years, and very well could rate out higher than this)
  68. Donnie Avery (there’s no doubt in my mind that this kid will be the #1 in St. Louis next season, great upside there, but this team should struggle for a couple years at least – still, better to risk on upside)
  69. Chad Ocho-Cinco (you’ll be able to get him cheap, he’s getting older, he says one thing and does another and he changed his name to a fake spanish number – all that being said, he’s still #85 and gets his QB back this season)
  70. Jericho Cotchery (do I like Cotchery? you bet – do I like Kellen Clemmens? not a chance – but Cotchery is still a nice receiver and should average 80 grabs over the next 3 years, so this might be low for him – not great upside here though)
  71. Joe Flacco (Maybe he should go higher than this, his future is bright, that’s for sure. Still, Mason is aging and I’m not sure there’s another great offensive player on that roster)
  72. David Garrard (I still don’t see any receiving help for this poor guy, but his O-line should be way better this season – and despite what people think, he was pretty decent as a starting option last year – 12th overall)
  73. Rashard Mendenhall (he’ll go really late in drafts this year, what a time to get him, I still think he’s right there – talentwise – with anybody else from last year’s super talented class, this is too low, but he’s still risky)
  74. Domenik Hixon (he might not be a #1, and I doubt the Giants will let that happen, but I like this kid as a solid HR threat #2 and I expect him to play a nice roll in NY over the next couple years – I like him more than the other WRs on that roster)
  75. Matt Hasselbeck (how many years does Matty have left? his back might have a better answer than me – but he’ll be solid as long as he’s still around – the Hawks offense will be much improved this season)
  76. Deion Branch (good player, injury troubles have held him back, and he’s not a #1, but now he doesn’t have to be, and he’s still young enough to be good in the Hawks passing attack)
  77. Pierre Thomas (if I trusted Sean Payton, he’d be a heck of a lot higher – if he ever moves teams, he shoots way up the chart)
  78. Leon Washington (he’s talented enough to take a chance, but I don’t know if his coaches will give him the #1 job, and Thomas Jones was successful last season – still, this young offensive line is talented and getting better, and Washington has at least as much upside as Darren Sproles)
  79. Fred Jackson (Fred is a very good player that will probably get lots of time with Marshawn doing dumb things, a little risk could go along way with this kid)
  80. Thomas Jones (Yeah, I ranked his back-up ahead of him, so what – Jones is aging and while I still like him, he’s not really impressing the new staff with his hold-out threats)
  81. Tony Gonzalez (he may have a couple more years, but he’s in as good a shape as most 25 year olds, and even if he plays just 2 more he’ll rank out higher than most 3 year TEs)
  82. Dallas Clark (he’ll be one of Peyton’s top targets with Marvin gone, and he’s a pretty sure thing to be in the Top 5 over the next few years)
  83. Kellen Winslow (I like him better than Dallas Clark, but it’s very close, and Dallas has the QB advantage and health on his side, so Kellen moves behind him)
  84. Lance Moore (if I trusted Sean Payton, Lance wouldn’t be this high)
  85. Hines Ward (all he does is do the same good things year after year after year, consistently from game to game, and he’ll always be underrated – even though he’s 33 and plays a more physical football than most receivers, aging him faster perhaps, still, this is probably too low for a sure thing)
  86. Steve Breaston (he’ll be a #2 somewhere, if not in Arizona next season, then sometime soon down the line, he’s good enough to hold on to)
  87. Ted Ginn Jr. (could be a very good WR, he showed flashes last season, but there’s still enough question to keep him behind a lot of receivers)
  88. Chris Cooley (what a character – Cooley is a top notch receiver that should be even better in his 2nd season in this system)
  89. Sage Rosenfels (I think he’ll be good – that’s right, will probably draft him in more than a few leagues as my back-up – lots of risk here, but lots of upside too)
  90. John Carlson (His rookie year was a big success, he blocks well so he’ll always be on the field which makes him a solid red-zone touchdown target)
  91. Dustin Keller (probably a better receiver than Carlson, but not as physical and not as good of a QB, still this kid’s upside has a higher ceiling than JC’s)
  92. Trent Edwards (It’s tough to say, but I like Trent and think his sophomore slump will be exactly that – something you look back at and say, that was an aberration and this kid is going to be good – still, anybody in charge of Buff’s offense has risk)
  93. Chris Chambers (I wonder what happend last season – Chris played in every game and had just 33 grabs for 462 yards and 5 scores – I’m willing to bet he improves those numbers next season, he’s only 31 this season, but just incase, he’s not ranked high enough to get a bunch of crap for)
  94. Brady Quinn (here’s to hoping he goes to Denver and succeeds – still, I’ve never been sold on Brady)
  95. Mark Clayton (the former first round pick had a nice thing going with Flacco, his second 7 games were worth 31 fantasy points – his last 9 were good for 110)
  96. Torry Holt (we’ll see where he signs, he’s aging for sure, but I’m not ready to believe he’s done, he’s always open)
  97. Owen Daniels (not much not to like about this kid, except that he’s a TE – still, he’s very consistent which is rare for TEs not named Gonzo, Witten, Clark, and Gates)
  98. Donald Driver (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
  99. Derrick Mason (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
  100. Jason Campbell (probably shouldn’t be this low, but after the first 12-15 QBs, what can you do, i wouldn’t mind having him to be a back-up on my squad over the next few seasons)
  101. Michael Clayton (maybe this is nuts, but with Gruden gone I think Clayton’s not so “puckered up” as he was over the last few years, and the kid has enough talent to succeed)
  102. Josh Morgan (talented enough to do it, offensive passing attack a question in San Fran, still, I like this kid a lot)
  103. Kevin Walter (effective, but a white wide receiver nonetheless, sorry if I can’t believe)
  104. Miles Austin (I have to think he’ll get enough looks to be fantasy worthy, and his upside is greater than Patrick Crayton’s)
  105. James Jones (I’ve always liked him a ton, he fell behind a little bit last season, but he’ll be a nice #2 in this league some time over the next 3 seasons)
  106. Jeremy Shockey (gotta wonder about this werid-o, never been a fan, but if he stays healthy, and out of the dog house, he’s talented enough)
  107. Zach Miller (good young red zone target, if the Raiders ever get there he’ll be a solid option)
  108. Laurence Maroney (worth a pick late in dynasty leagues, I have always loved his talent but he can’t stay on the field and his HC isn’t a huge fan)
  109. Chad Pennington (he needed to go on the list, I just don’t think he has more than one season as a starter)
  110. JaMarcus Russell (you have to feel bad for a kid that gets stuck in Oakland – I believe JaMarcus!)
  111. Plaxico Burress (I think Plax was/is stupid – no doubt about that – however, mando-mins are the stupidest thing ever and should be abolished – he’s a super talented cat, but prison time is on the horizon which means his career could be shut down)
  112. Michael Vick (Yeah, he’s on the list, he’s an athletic freak and he did his time – get the hell over it – I’m a dog lover and after a guy spends time in jail for what he did, has to start his life and career over, I’m going to wish him the best)