Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

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This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Wednesday NCAA Basketball Picks: Pitt VS UConn, NC Tar Heels VS Clemson

Wednesday NCAA Basketball Picks: Kentucky took care of Florida last night, though they needed a strong final few minutes to slam the door, giving me a nice win to start the week. Lets hope that keeps going on Wednesday Night.

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Pittsburgh Panthers @ Connecticut Huskies (-6): The 15th ranked Huskies have struggled a little bit against ranked opponents, losing to Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Georgetown in the last month. But two of those games were on the road, all three losses came by 3 points or less, and one was a loss to the currently undefeated Wildcats. So listen, it’s not as bad as it seems. Plus, the Huskies are 10-0 at home this season, and have won each home contest by at least 8 points. The Huskies have covered each of their last 5 games and still the bettors are 65% in favor of Pittsburgh covering this game. Six points could make this one interesting, but I like the home team to cover here. I think UConn will be too strong for 20th ranked Pittsburgh, and the Panthers undefeated start to the Big East will come to an end.

North Carolina Tar Heels (+3) @ Clemson Tigers: What I see is a Clemson team that struggles when they lost the rebound battle and a Tar Heel team that more often than not wins the rebound battle. I’m not saying it’s all about boards, but that tells me the Tigers struggle against other bigs, and the Heels have a couple very good bigs and a handful of other guys that will give the Tigers trouble size-wise. Clemson hasn’t beaten the Tar Heels for a long time, as I know the Heels have won at least 10 in a row against the Tigers. Deon Thompson should score, but Ed Davis should have a good time eating up the glass.

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick: This is my favorite upset of the week, and it has been from the get go. However, looking at it now, it looks as though I’m not the only one picking the Packers to dismantle the Cardinals in Arizona this Sunday. 63% of the public betting on the spread like the Packers to cover, and those are the late numbers. Early percentages were so high that the books responded, moving this spread all the way to even in most sports books as I write this. I see experts taking the Packers at a 2 to 1 clip, and even ESPN’s Suomi likes Green Bay.

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If Anquan Boldin were playing, the Cardinals would have one advantage in this football game, but with him out, the only thing the Cardinals have over the Packers is experience. Arizona made it all the way to the big show last season, playing just one home game, and falling just a few seconds short of taking home the title. But I don’t see that same Cardinals team this season. Arizona has been very inconsistent all season long, and there’s something about the Packers final half of the season that has me admiring their team.

The Packers lost just one game over the final half of the season, as a touchdown pass by Ben Roethlisberger as time expired in Pittsburgh gave the Steelers a 37-36 win. But outside of that, the packers have dominated. During those 8 games, the Packers handled 3 playoff teams, winning by a combined 77-28. Green Bay’s offense has impressed me all year, but it’s their growth in that 3-4 defense that gives them the nod here. Great corners against a less than full strength Cardinals receiving corps, and pass rushers galore -yeah, I like the packers.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals

New York Jets VS Cincinnati Bengals: AFC Wildcard Playoff Game Pick

I got this game when the Bengals were favored by just a single point, a little while after they opened at -4, and before the line moved by up to -3. Right now, you can find the line anywhere between the Bengals being favored by 2-3 points. And as the line has moved around with haste and ferocity, the public percentage has moved around as well. Right now, the Bengals are seeing about 61% of the bets, but the early money was on New York. Not that any of that stuff matters.

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I wonder what this line would have been had the Bengals sat their starters for Sunday’s entire game. Even if the Jets had won easily, in that case, I think the Bengals would have been favored by a couple more points – but maybe not. Either way, it’s hard for me to put too much weight into one single game. The Bengals have played better with Cedric Benson running the ball. His strength and aggressiveness is a huge part of Cincinnati’s offense, and he’ll be back on the field this week, that should help the Bengals get things going. And while Cincinnati definitely got pushed around by the Jets solid run-defense, it’s hard for me to foresee that happening again this Sunday.

Both these teams are good, both are tough, and both bring it on both sides of the ball. The difference in these two teams is at quarterback where the Bengals have Carson Palmer and the Jets have a rookie, Mark Sanchez. That give the Bengals the advantage in my book. When you add that to the reality that Cincinnati played their worst football of the season last week in New York, and the Jets played one of their best all around games all season long, I think you get a Bengals victory at home. Extremes like that often have a way of evening themselves out. It’s tough to beat up a good football team twice in one year, let alone twice in one week.

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets Sunday Night Football

The Jets had some awesome luck going against the Colts in Week 16 (undefeated yet didn’t care enough about that to actually play their starters, basically feeding the Jets a must-have win) and now they get another team “resting up” for the playoffs when Cincinnati comes to town with absolutely nothing to gain from a win and nothing to lose from a loss. Lucky. And you know what they say, it’s better to be lucky than good.

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And while I fully expect the Jets to win and all of a sudden take over the spot of “worst playoff team” I think it’s going to be close than double digits. The Bengals still have a solid offensive line and a bunch of young studs defensively. They can’t sit everyone, and you can bet those young guys will make some plays. Ten points is a lot for New York to outscore a good defensive team by, even if the starters play only a handful of snaps.

And the Bengals can run it. They will have Larry Johnson ready to take over for Cedric Benson when CB is ready to get his rest on, and that’s a pretty nice option to have for Bengals backers. This game is no guarantee, but I like it to be close – as Mark Sanchez will have a lot of pressure on his to succeed in this one, the playoffs rest on the rookie’s arm – no big deal, right?

Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) @ New York Jets

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals Pick & Preview

Another game that seems too simple. First and foremost, throw out the idea that you are betting on the best team, absolutely not! You can do that a lot, and you can look for match-ups and trends and how teams play against other teams with similar strengths, weaknesses, etc. – but when the end of the year comes a rocking, you can just go on ahead and throw all that garbage right out the window. At that point, with the garbage splattering on another innocent onlooker, you can see the real simple reason to bet one side or another. For example, in this game, the Cardinals are still playing for a shot at home field advantage while the Packers have absolutely no shot to win anything from this game.

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So, if the Packers have any reason whatsoever, and you can bet that they do, they will come out with Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Driver, Jennings, and every other Packer stud resting firmly on the bench. They’ve done their best work down the stretch, and honestly, they have more to lose (with momentum and injury risk) by actually coming out and trying to win this game in Arizona than they do by sitting down and watching back-ups take one on the chin.

Trying to win and losing (see New Orleans and Minnesota) can do some definite mo-damage while dropping back and staying healthy that final week rarely has an effect, one way or another, on your squad. The Cardinals are still playing for a shot at homefield advantage and a first round bye (believe it or not), so I see them playing starters until they have this game locked up. That’s enough for me.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3):

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Pick

I can’t help but tell you the truth, I like the Eagles, and I want them to win. That being said, and if you read me with any sort of consistency, you’ll recognize that I go against a team I want to win just as much as I bet on them. It’s because I don’t bet with my heart, I don’t pick with my feelings, and I completely separate the two (betting and rooting) from each other. This just happens to be one of those times where my heart and brain come together as one, and I’m taking the Eagles.

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I’ve always been a strong believer in the truth to the idea that a tough team is hard to beat twice in the same season. This season that’s happened more than a couple times, but those couple times aren’t going to eliminate my feelings on the idea, and I think the Cowboys have a tough time taking down the Eagles for the second time this season. The first win came in Philadelphia, and it was earlier. Well, since then the Eagles have found themselves a bit, and come in looking like one of, if not the best team in the NFC heading into the playoffs. Of course that can all change with one beat down at the hands of the Cowboys, but like I said, I don’t see that happening.

The Cowboys are on a roll, beating the Saints (though they tried to lose that one late), and smacking the Redskins right in their lopsided heads. But they should have beaten the Redskins, and the win over the Saints was a big underdog affair. I think the Eagles put a little pressure on Romo and down go the Cowboys in Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Football Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are easily playing their best football of the season, running with success and playing much better defense. Not only did they smack around the Seahawks two weeks ago, using an arsenal of turnover causing defensive plays, but they went and upset a fully-healthy New Orleans Saints team in New Orleans last week as well, all behind rookie signal caller Josh Freeman. It’s really quite fantastic, I mean beating up on the Seahawks in Seattle is one thing, almost expected if you spend time watching them quit Sunday after Sunday, but the Saints in New Orleans – awesome.

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But that can’t last. You might think it can, but I’m here to tell you it can’t. The won both those games on the road, and that will make winning at home just a little bit different, just a little too different. The Bucs have a solid run-game, but I think the Falcons will feast on a couple arrant Freeman passes, and hello, Atlanta is good. I know they are hurting, definitely a team beat down by injuries this year, but they still have playmakers, and are just flat out better than Tampa Bay.

It all comes down to Tampa Bay winning three games in a row, and how I just absolutely cannot buy into it. If it was a one game thing, with Tampa coming in losing five straight, I could see the upset, but after winning two games in a row? Nope.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams Free NFL Pick

There’s not much too this game in my opinion. The Rams absolutely, in no way whatsoever, if the organization has any sense or feel for their own team and franchise, can not win this football game. They just can’t accept a win here. If they won, they would finish in a tie (likely) with the Detroit Lions, and that would go to a tie breaker for the draft, and that would give the Lions the number one pick over the Rams, and that would eliminate their chance at getting the best player in college football, Mr. Suh. So, like I said, they absolutely can not win this game.

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Luckily for them, they probably couldn’t win this game if they tried. They can’t throw the ball and they are playing against one hell of a run-stuffing unit in San Francisco – plus, the Niners are always trying to win, and their coach will make sure it happens, as a Week 17 win would assure the 49ers a .500 season, something they have to be trying hard to get to considering how much of a win that is for this once proud franchise.

The 49ers have been playing pretty good football over the last few weeks, beating Arizona and Detroit and losing to the Eagles. They’ve been running the ball a lot more, and that gives them the consistency they need to succeed against lesser teams. This one is easy folks, I like the 49ers by 17 points.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams:

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Week 17 NFL Picks

This is a tough one indeed. The Giants have all but given up on that evil little tomato-toned rat faced coach of theirs, and it’s even worse for the defensive coordinator. I can’t say I don’t enjoy it a little bit though, in fact, I like it a lot. Nothing makes me happier than seeing those stupid looks from Eli and Coach Coughlin – every single time it has brand new humor to me. The question is, have they given up? Because it’s not like the Vikings are playing sound football either. And it’s not like the Giants are an easy match-up for the Vikings either, as New York matches up well with what the Vikings’ coaches want to do offensively.

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But I’m starting to think the Vikings are ready to actually give this team to Brett. Everyone saw what he could do last week when you open it up a little, and this Giants secondary has become an embarrassing group to watch. Offensively, the Giants can throw it around pretty good, but they don’t have any of that key balance that allows teams to get out of reach.

Having nothing to play for, being frustrated as a group, having no chance at keeping the Vikings out of the playoffs or messing things up for anyone else, I think the Giants are close to a rollover candidate this week, and with Minnesota all in trying to win and get home field advantage, if not at least get back on track and playing good football before the post-season smacks them in the face. I think they take advantage of Week 17 and get going with a big win.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)