Fantasy Focus: NFL Fantasy Football Week 14 Projections

Posted on December 10, 2009 by luckylester

Well, the fantasy playoffs are here, and never is there a time more important to get the rankings right. I’ve had a solid run with my starts and such, but I haven’t been winning too many of these in-house contests of late. I’m looking to turn that around, and I’ve used a lot of match-up advantage, high touch situations for my rankings and picks this week. Here’s the fantasy focus for Week 14’s NFL Action.

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Drew Brees – Drew should have a great day against Atlanta’s suspect pass defense.
2. Ray Rice – Ray and the Ravens really struggled last week, but that’s why I love him to have a big week.
3. Sidney Rice – I think Favre goes back to the guy he’s most comfortable with after a tough week.
4. Ben Roethlisberger – Ben threw for 400+ yards last time they Steelers saw the Browns… again?
5. Chris Johnson – Until he does something other than score easy fantasy points, I’ll try to keep him here.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Terrell Owens – People might lay off him after a down week, but everyone struggles against Revis.
2. Mike Sims-Walker – 5 of his 6 home games have been double digit fantasy production.
3. Thomas Jones – I think the Jets will run 45 times this week – Thomas will get about 25 of those.
4. Ricky Williams –The Jaguars are up and down, against the Dolphins rushing attack, I think down.
5. Percy Harvin –What can I say, I think the Vikigns throw more than they pass against Cincinnati.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –He’s still the best back in Seattle, and despite getting 1/3 the touches, he produced last week.
2. Michael Crabtree – Could be a big week for Crabtree, he’s been getting the targets, he’ll cash in soon.
3. Vince Young– He’s rated as the 25th QB in ESPN this week, I think he cuts that in half. At least.
4. Jamal Charles– He draws Buffalo this week, and he’s been solid, good combo start there.
5. Daunte Culpepper– The Ravens secondary isn’t awesome, and I’ll take a chance that Duante can still wing it with the best of them – go deep Calvin!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Matt Forte– Bad match-up against the Pack, in Week 1, the Pack weren’t quite figured out yet, and they still held Forte to 55 yards on 25 carries.
2. Steve Smith– Matt Moore isn’t better than Jake Delhomme, I can’t believe it. Sit him against the Pats.
3. Frank Gore – It’s going to kill me, but Mike Singletary’s offense has no identity – Gore gets no looks.
4. Eli Manning –I think Eli will struggle against the Eagles, every since Plax went bang, he’s struggled.
5. T.J. Houshmanzadeh– The Hawks need to throw this guy the ball, but they don’t do things right…

***You’re taking a chance on DeSean Jackson, Michael Turner, and DeAngelo Williams, but from what I hear, the first and the last are very likely, and Turner might practice Thursday. ***

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Ask Papa Weimer: Week 7 Fantasy Football

Posted on October 22, 2009 by luckylester

Have some good ones early this week, why waste any more of your rancid time with my introduction, you want to get to the questions and answers like I want to get to my Philly Cheese cake that I’m not supposed to eat. So on with it. Again, you can always post your questions any time you want, just send them to me at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here all week!

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Kyle M-Dot of Ferndale, Washington asks, “Who do u think is the best running back in the NFL and who do u think will go to the Super Bowl?”

Thanks for the email my man. As for the best RB in the NFL, that’s a tough call. I think Adrian Peterson, as just a raw runner, is one of the toughest guys to bring down. What he did to one of the best run defenses in the league last week was pretty awesome. 140+ yards against that team is gnarly, but his strength and work ethic really makes him special. I don’t think his vision is awesome (like Jones-Drew or Brian Westbrook) but his ability to go through tacklers probably makes him the best RB in the NFL in my mind. He has awesome speed, really quick cuts, and is tough to tackle. If he didn’t have a case of the fumbles, and was a good receiver, he’d be one of the best ever.

As for the Super Bowl, I hate the Saints and have never been a big Colts fan, but they really seem tough to beat. I’ve always known they had good offenses, but the way their defenses have stepped up is pretty amazing. Also, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, two very different talent/prospect levels, are two of the best quarterbacks I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a lot. And despite losing recently, I like the chances the Eagles and Giants have of possibly upsetting the Saints and getting to the big game. Both really struggled last week, but one game is one game, and a season is a longer deal. A couple AFC teams that will give the Colts a run, the Ravens and Patriots could sneak in as well. It could also be magic for Denver, but I’m not quite buying that yet. Those are my favorites!

David from Minnesota writes, “If I had to pick up a WR who would be the best pickup? Crabtree or Lance Moore and why? It sounds like Crabtree will be starting. Will he make any type of impact?”

Tough call, everyone in New Orleans seems like a crap shoot every week because they are all open and Drew doesn’t seem to have a favorite, but I think lance had the 2nd most amount of targets with 7, and last year he certainly was Drew’s favorite guy to go to. But Crabtree has soooo much talent, and the 49ers seem determined to use him. I’m personally stunned that a Mike Singletary team would start Crabtree right out of the gate, unless he’s been dominating at practice, in which case he’s worth a look. I think both these guys are solid pick-ups. Lance is in a group of productive receivers while Crabtree is in a run first offense and has been out of football for a while, both have their downsides. I think Lance is the safe pick, Crabtree is the wildcard. I imagine Lance will end up with more fantasy points from now until the end of the season. But it will likely be close.

Tim Lynch says, “Papa, This year we allow return men to get the yards and touchdowns. There are two on the waiver wire this week. I have a spot for one of them, Which should I pick up? Domenik Hixon (They are playing Arizona: should be a lot of opportunities) or Sammie Straughter (They are playing NE and should also get a lot of opportunities. Thanks for the help!”

Tim, I think both guys are great options, but Sammie Stroughter just took the job in Tampa, and I know they will be allowing lots of scores all year long. I’m not sure that the job is his to keep, but I think they like his speed in the open field, so I imagine he’ll stay there. I think the Giants will allow a lot less scores than the Bucs, obviously, so Hixon won’t get as many returns as the season goes forward, but this week, Arizona might be able to put some points on the board and give Hixon chances. But you might want to take into account Niel Rackers, he is one of the top Touch back kickers in the league, booming 9 into the end zone already this season on just 24 attempts. Then again, Stephen Gostkowski has 10 touch backs, but on 13 more kick offs attempts. Tough call for sure. I think the Patriots end up kicking off about 7-10 times, and that would have me give the nod to Stroughter. But in both situations there’s upside. I just think Sammie gets more looks as the season goes forward. Plus, I’ve always thought a lot of the guys since he was a youngster at Oregon State. Thanks for the email.

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Mark B from San Antonio, Texas asks, “I’m being asked for a trade for either Gore or Forte straight up for Steve Smith (CAR). I’ve been starting Knox because players receive return yards in our league and scores double digits for me. The other WR slot I haven’t settled on, and then I run 3 backs. My RBs and WRs are as follows: Forte, Slaton, Ray Rice, Mendenhall, Frank Gore, Jonathan Stewart – Braylon Edwards, Vincent Jackson, Johnny Knox, and Eddie Royal. Should I take this trade in hopes for a bigger outing from Smith later this season? Thanks for your help on this.”

Boy, you have some great running back options – Gore, Mend, Ray, and Forte, and then Jonathan Stewart just in case, gotta love that group, and yes, that leaves you room to make a trade for a solid receiver. While I absolutely love Steve Smith’s game, it seems like the Panthers and mostly Jake Delhomme, don’t have the ability to use Steve. I think Knox is a solid option in return yardage leagues – he gets catches as a receiver, makes big plays, and that extra 100 or so yardage from kick returns is nice too. I would not trade Gore for Steve Smith. Gore is an awesome back that IS his team’s offense. Keep holding on to him. Forte, I don’t know, he’s a tough gamble – he’s been bad to start the year, his value seems to be gone, and maybe him for Steve would be a decent trade -but I feel like you might be able to trade for a better receiving option with one of those backs. I like Steve, one of my favorite players in the game, but questions abound in that passing game. I would probably pass on this trade, but Forte for Smith has possible upside for you, definitely, just a little bit too much risk for something that seems all but sure. With Eddie Royal getting some kick return duties for the Broncos, you have yet another option, a starting receiver that also gets those precious kick return yardage. I think you’re okay at WR, and am not sure how much SS would upgrade you right now. If Joe Montana signs with Carolina, then Steve’s value might go up….
Papa

Ten for Tuesday: Fantasy Football Week 6

Posted on October 20, 2009 by luckylester

Drew Brees had very little of what scouts looked for in an NFL Quarterback prospect when he came out of Purdue. That just shows you, ability and talent are two things that don’t always match up. Drew has always had the ability, he’s forever been a student of the game that finds ways around defenses. He’s worked as hard as anyone. He’s been as accurate as any quarterback over the last handful of years, and his good habits have made him a force in the league. He’ll never be fast, but he’ll always be lightning quick with his decisions and footwork. He’ll never have a top-notch arm, but he’ll always be able to find a way to make every throw. He’ll never be 6’5″ but he’ll rarely get a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage, and he doesn’t need to see over his offensive line if he already knows exactly where everybody is going to be with his eyes closed. Give him his due, Drew is one of the best I’ve seen, and I’ve seen a lot….

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The Eagles will do things like this. Why? It’s because they rarely commit to running the ball. If they ran the ball more on Sunday, twice as much, they still wouldn’t be a team in the top half of the league in carries. But they would have won the game. That’s right, there were plenty of places to run, and they have two very talented backs both very capable of running to open space. But the Eagles will do things like this. Andy Reid has proven to be a great coach, but he’s also shown that he won’t change a game plan that he thinks should work. That ability to make a change is something he doesn’t have, and because of this the Eagles have suffered. But then again, they’ll beat the best teams in the league. I’m just saying, the Raiders? Only Philly….

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Tony Scheffler goes wild on Monday Night Football, and now we can all fully commit to Josh McDaniels doing what he wants instead of getting the ball to the guys on fantasy teams. If he took anything from Bill Belichick, it’s that you win games by using all your players, not just the popular ones. Tony hadn’t done much this year, but Josh saw a mismatch and slammed Tony down the Chargers’ collective throats. Brandon Marshall owners, sorry. Knowshon owners, not tonight. Eddie Royal owners, F your couch – unless special teams counts. You get the picture? Proceed with caution…. I don’t care if you thought Sydney Rice was a bust after two years of showing talent only to disappoint, because Brett Favre doesn’t think Rice is a bust, and that’s enough for me to believe. If Rice’s 12 catches for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns over the last 3 weeks didn’t get him owned in fantasy leagues, I’m willing to bet that his 6 grabs for 176 yards does. Brett has shown an appreciation for Rice’s toughness, his big frame, and his ability to beat a corner in man to man coverage. I think that’s something Brett goes back to a couple times this season as defenses continue to stack up against Adrian Peterson and company….

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Speaking of Adrian Peterson, 22 carries for 143 yards? Against the Ravens? DIRTY! AP is an interesting cat. He doesn’t have huge games against normally porous defenses, but the run-stuffing D from Baltimore, no problem. The big man went off for 6.5 yards a clip, and certainly opened up some room for Brett to get the job done. I just think Adrian Peterson is one of those guys you play every game he’s healthy – he’s a beast, hitting him can’t be fun…. Watching Tom Brady throw 5 touchdowns in the 2nd quarter of the Patriots game against the Titans is basically the reason I have Sunday Ticket. I don’t think I’ll ever get it again, too much money for me, but watching that live was something else. The highlights were great, sure, but this was like watching Tiger Woods dominate his opponents. The world was Tom’s on Sunday, his throws were perfect, the snow didn’t get in his way, and he had me locked into a 45-0 game, in the first half, when I had the choice of any game on TV. Priceless…..

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Rashard Mendenhall has turned into a very good blocker suddenly. I don’t know if it was Omar Epps letting him know what’s up or what, but Mendenhall was never considered a good pass-blocker, most cringed at the idea of him picking up blitzes, but recently he’s become a de-cleating blocker from the RB position. Now, blocks aren’t going to get you fantasy points, but the fact that Pittsburgh doesn’t have to replace their best back on passing downs will open up a lot of opportunity for last year’s 1st round pick, and that’s worth noting. Those waiting for him to start losing time to Willie Parker might end up waiting forever…. But Ben Roethlisberger is going to throw the ball, so don’t expect many 30 carry games for the big bad Illinois sophomore. Over his first 5 seasons as a starter, Ben tossed seven games with 300+ yards. This year, in 6 games, he has three. One of those was Week 6’s 417 yard performance against the Browns. He’s got plenty of weapons he trusts, the coaching staff trusts him, get used to Big Ben throwing the ball a lot, these aren’t your dad’s Steelers….

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Lost in the shuffle of huge performances this week was some garbage stats that would make Derek Anderson’s Week 5 look normal. Kerry Collins and Mark San-CHEZ (as pronounced by the clowns in the broadcast booth during the Jets/Bills games) not only gave Anderson a run, but made Derek look down right impressive. Now Derek’s Week 6 of 9 for 24, 122 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and 51 QB rating isn’t good, but that’s his 2nd best performance in his 4 games played this year. Last week’s 2 for 17, 26 yard, and 1 INT with a 15.1 QB rating was downright slimy, and I didn’t expect to see anything like it the rest of the season. Color me WRONG!!! I call on San-CHEZ to deliver his stats to the jury:

Lucky: “What do you have to say for yourself Mark?”
Mark: “10 for 29, 119 yards, 5 INTs, that makes a single digit QB rating of 8.3. Sorry.”
Lucky: “Apology accepted, but don’t do that again or we’ll ship you to Cleveland.”

Not only was Sunday a wake up call for Mark’s NFL honeymoon, but he basically lost his team the game. But wait, not to be out done, I’ll now call one Kerry Collins to the stand:

Kerry: “What do you want?”
Lucky: “Kerry, can I call you Kerry, like the chick from Sex and The City, or that scary girl from that horror move, or that one girl from…”
Kerry: “Okay, I get it, girl name, what they hell do you want?”
Lucky: “It looks like you’ve been drinking…”
Kerry: “So what, it’s Monday Morning, of course I’ve been drinking. Who doesn’t drink in the morning? You’d drink to if you looked like a drunk from the day you were born. Now what the hell do you want?”
Lucky: “That explains it. Now just list your numbers for the jury of people that don’t get paid to pass a football.”
Kerry: “2 for 12, -7 yards, 1 INT… QB Rating, 4.9. You have any Busch Light?”
Lucky: “4.9? Oh my good lord, you were half as good as a rookie that had 5 interceptions and completed just over 33% of his passes. How do you pass for negative yardage anyway?”
Kerry: “FML…”

To Kerry’s credit, I saw at least 5 absolute drops on Sunday. He didn’t stand a chance…. What do Michael Turner and Matt Forte have in common? Well, disappointment shows it’s ugly head. Both of these guys were sure-fire Top 5 fantasy picks, and neither has run the ball very effectively. Forte has looked worse, but both had yard-per-carry averages that would make Tim Hightower’s numbers look effective. Michael has been better, but neither has been good. Both were supposed to have more help this season, and thus have more room to run with improved passing games. What the hell happened to that idea?

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 3

Posted on September 24, 2009 by luckylester

Week 3 fantasy football is upon us, and here we are, dancing around some tough plays this coming weekend. The match-ups are in, the staff has been polled, and we have all the predicted rankings heading into Week 3. I’ve taken the top spot (Lucky Lester) each of the first two weeks, but it’s close, and I know I have some guys out to take my crown. Once again, I’ve listed my 4 levels of plays, elites, solids, sleepers, and no-nos, I hope they help. Josh, Papa, Red Red Ryan, and I have our rankings further down the page. I hope you enjoy it all!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – I don’t think the Texans can stop MJD, ala Chris Johnson last week.
2. Andre Johnson – That being said, I’m not so sure the Jaguars can stop the Texans either, I’ll take AJ.
3. Drew Brees – He has to come back to earth one of these days, dude can’t throw 72 touchdowns. Not this week.
4. Matt Schaub – Two weeks in a row at the top? You bet.
5. Brandon Jacobs – It’s been a slow start for the beast, enter the Buccaneers as unlucky opponent in Week 3.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Ray Rice– I think Ray will be the top scoring back on the Ravens team this week against Cleveland.
2. Ryan Grant – The Packers haven’t been dedicated to the run this year, I think that changes this week.
3. Larry Johnson– Questions surrounding Larry, I think he has a nice game this week.
4. Dwayne Bowe – Big nasty receiver going against the Eagles, and I think KC will be down – I like this pick.
5. Braylon Edwards – Drop a couple, catch a couple, he’ll have plenty of opportunities down early.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Mario Manningham – Yeah, I like what I saw, me and every other guy.
2. David Garrard – I’d take him a lot of weeks, should be real good against Houston.
3. Trent Edwards –Both teams should have lots of snaps and score lots of points. Even in a loss I like Trent.
4.Fred Jackson– If he’s a beast one more week, does he keep the starting job when Lynch comes back?
5. Jabar Gaffney – The Raiders will take away the top guys, but Gaffney should find room. Good sleeper pick.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai – The Cardinals are very tough against the run, shutting down two studs in Gore and MJD.
2. Cedric Benson – His style versus the Steelers is not a good match-up for his fantasy owners.
3. Willie Parker – I don’t know if Willie will have too many more big games, the Bengals are tough on the run.
4. Bernard Berrien – Is he even the #1 receiver anymore, either way, Nate Clements should shut him down.
5. Chris Johnson – Can you sit this guy? Probably not, but if you have other options I’d suggest it.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault	        Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Peyton Manning	1.Drew Brees
2.Tom Brady     	2.Aaron Rodgers 	2.Tom Brady     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Phillip Rivers 	3.Matt Schaub     	3.Drew Brees     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Aaron Rodgers   	4.Peyton Manning	4.David Garrard 	4.Tony Romo
5.Carson Palmer  	5.Trent Edwards 	5.Aaron Rodgers		5.Tom Brady
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Michael Turner	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew
2.Maurice Jones-Drew	2.Brandon Jacobs	2.Steve Slaton  	2.Brandon Jacobs
3.Adrian Peterson	3.Ronnie Brown  	3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Matt Forte		4.Matt Forte    	4.Fred Jackson  	4.Matt Forte
5.Clinton Portis	5.Steven Jackson	5.Clinton Portis  	5.Ryan Grant

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Randy Moss		1.Andre Johnson   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Andre Johnson
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne  	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Randy Moss
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith (NYG)    	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Greg Jennings		4.Andre Johnson 	4.Steve Smith (CAR)
5.Steve Smith (CAR)  	5.Santonio Holmes	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Jericho Cotchery

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Chris Cooley  	1.Jeremy Shockey	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Antonio Gates
2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.John Carlson  	2.Dallas Clark
3.John Carlson		3.Dustin Keller		3.Tony Gonzalez 	3.Jason Witten
4.Antonio Gates 	4.Dallas Clark  	4.Owen Daniels		4.Chris Cooley
5.Jason Witten   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Tony Gonzalez

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Bears 		1.Ravens
2.Redskins		2.Broncos       	2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Packers		3.Giants		3.Eagles		3.Broncos
4.Broncos		4.Bears  		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Vikings		5.Redskins		5.Redskins		5.Eagles

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The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

Fantasy Focus REVIEW: Week 1

Posted on September 15, 2009 by luckylester

This is where I review everything I predicted from my fantasy focus article every week. It’s pretty easy to follow, always feel free to write in if you have any questions. As for my fantasy predictions in Week 1, some good, some bad, just like my fantasy teams. I’ve graded out each fantasy pick, and as you’ll see, I killed my sleeper picks for Week 1.

See how everyone did with Week 1’s overall positional rankings (PPR) listed next to each player’s name from Team Lucky Lester’s Week 1 projections below. Some hits and misses for all, no doubt, but naturally, I came out ahead of the group…

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – He finished 10th prior to Monday Night’s action, 17 fantasy points, they got way down early…. B-
2. Tom Brady – Tom started slow but ended up with 376 yards and 2 TDs. The guy is a sniper. A
3. Larry Fitzgerald – 6 catches for 71 yards and a TD: Not terrible, but worst than I expected, that offense was bad on Sunday. B
4. Randy Moss – Randy may have not caught any TDs, but his 12 catches for 141 yards totaled 26 fantasy points. Not bad. A
5. Brian Westbrook – Westy had just 15 fantasy points in a decent amount of action. The Eagles D was scoring too much for Eagle offensive players to light up the fantasy boards. B-

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I thought he’d grab 10, he grabbed 2. F
2. Reggie Bush –Reggie had 7 fantasy points, not getting into the scoring fun against the Lions. F
3. Ray Rice – Ray didn’t get involved in the passing game too much, but still had 13 fantasy points after rushing for over 100. B
4. Joseph Addai – He wasn’t too efficient, but scored and had just under 80 total yards. 5 catches were nice to see. 16 pts. B+
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Matt was #4 overall going into Monday, tossing for 279 yards and 3 TDs (2 ints as well). 22 pts. A

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – Donnie had 6 receptions for 46 yards, but lost a fumble too, finishing with 8 fantasy points. C-
2. Julius Jones – Jones was huge today (117 rushing yards and a score to go with 2 catches for 19 yards), most of it came on one huge run, but you can’t really take that away from him. A
3. Tim Hightower – I’m glad I got my hands on Hightower in some leagues, he caught 12 balls for 121 yards – 25 pts. A
4. Mark Sanchez – 272 yards, a TD and an INT – nice game for the rookie in a big win. Decent fantasy day. B
5. Nate Burleson – 2 fantasy points like ESPN projected? Ha. 7 grabs for 74 yards and a TD. Nate posted 20 pts for my team. A

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – 247 yards, 0 TDs, 2 ints… You’re welcome for this sit. A
2. Clinton Portis – 16 rushes for 60 yards. 1 catch for 10 yards. Could have been worse, but are you angry I told you to sit him? B
3. Willie Parker – 13 rushes for 19 yards. 1 catch for 5 yards. You’re welcome for this one too. A
4. Devin Hester – 4 catches for 90 yards and a nice long touchdown. Yeah, I was dead wrong about Devin. F
5. Hines Ward – 8 grabs for 103 yards was a good day, and even with the fumble he still put up 16 pts. Solid day. Sorry. F+

PS – I hope you didn’t start Marshawn Lynch like 33% of ESPN Leagues….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning 9	1.Tom Brady 4		1.Drew Brees 1		1.Tom Brady 4
2.Drew Brees 1		2.Drew Brees 1		2.Peyton Manning 9	2.Drew Brees 1
3.Tom Brady 4		3.Matt Ryan 8		3.Chad Pennington 26	3.Peyton Manning 9
4.Jay Cutler 25		4.Aaron Rodgers	13	4.Donovan McNabb 7	4.Aaron Rodgers 13
5.Phillip Rivers 15	5.Peyton Manning 9	5.Kyle Orton 14 	5.Matt Schaub 31

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson 1	1.Adrian Peterson 1	1.Michael Turner 46	1.DeAngelo Williams 11
2.DeAngelo Williams 11	2.DeAngelo Williams 11	2.Adrian Peterson 1	2.Brian Westbrook 15
3.Steven Jackson 43	3.Matt Forte 48		3.LaD. Tomlinson 30	3.Maurice Jones Drew 6
4.Ray Rice 20		4.Reggie Bush 31	4.Frank Gore 10		4.Adrian Peterson 1
5.Willie Parker	65	5.Knowshon Moreno 69	5.Ryan Grant 19		5.Ronnie Brown 34

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson	52	1.Calvin Johnson 35	1.Steve Smith 61	1.Randy Moss 3
2.Reggie Wayne 1	2.Terrell Owens	56	2.Reggie Wayne 1	2.Larry Fitzgerald 10
3.Randy Moss 3		3.Steve Smith 61	3.Marques Colston 33	3.Reggie Wayne 1
4.Vincent Jackson 18	4.Andre Johnson 52	4.Randy Moss 3		4.Andre Johnson 52
5.Calvin Johnson 35	5.Wes Welker 8		5.Eddie Royal 77	5.Greg Jennings 4

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates	12	1.Jason Witten 13	1.Dallas Clark 21	1.Dallas Clark 21
2.Jason Witten 13	2.Antonio Gates	12	2.Tony Gonzalez	4	2.Antonio Gates 12
3.Dallas Clark 21	3.Dallas Clark 21	3.Antonio Gates	12	3.Jason Witten 13
4.Greg Olsen 40		4.John Carlson 1	4.Owen Daniels 16	4.Zach Miller 7
5.Dustin Keller	12	5.Brandon Petitgrew 00	5.Jason Witten 13	5.John Carlson 1

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens 21		1.Ravens 21		1.Giants 3		1.Vikings 8
2.Steelers 9		2.Cowboys 29		2.Ravens 21		2.Ravens 21
3.Giants 3		3.Seahawks 4		3.Chargers 16		3.Cowboys 29
4.Patriots 24		4.Redskins 26		4.Saints 13		4.Giants 3
5.Bengals 12		5.Patriots 24		5.Steelers 9		5.Bengals 12

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We still don't care about kickers, but these guys were the Top 5 point producers...

1. Neil Rackers 2. Lawrence Tynes 3. Nick Folk 4. Jason Hanson 5. Joe Nedney

Looking back at the week's action.. Drew Brees was the #1 overall QB if averaged
out amongst our picks. The #1 overall running back was Adrian Peterson. So, as a
group, we got two right on the button. The #1 overall receiver, Reggie Wayne, was a
Top 3 receiving options on 3 writer's lists, making him the highest pre-rated receiver
on our boards as well. So, while none of us picked everything right, our highest
averaged players at the 3 key positions all finished #1 for the week. Now that's good
work. TE was a little bit different as only one guy, Red-Red Ryan Kauffman even had
John Carlson, this week's #1 TE, on his board. As for defenses, we all missed out on
the Eagles, who just happened to put up one of the all time great defensive point
scoring shows of all time on the unsuspecting Panthers. At least we didn't expect it.
What about the worst picks on our lists? Papa Weimer's WR chart had some issues as #1
Steve Smith had a terrible day, almost as bad as his #5 Eddie Royal. Arse's picks of
Steven Jackson and Willie Parker hurt his RB respect, and Andre Johnson as his #1
busted him, and everyone besides Papa. Ronnie Brown sure looked average in my Top 5,
and Matt Schaub finished well out of the Top 15 as well. Papa, Arse and I took big
chances putting Orton, Pennington, and Schaub in our Top 5 lists, none of which pay
off, making us look bad with 9, 8, and 4 points a piece. Obviously I looked the worst
in that gong show. We all picked the Ravens to finish either 1 or 2, they finished 21.
Who did we miss? Tony Romo and Joe Flacco went 2 and 3 for QBs in Week 1. Both went
unpicked by our four fantasy writers. Hasselbeck and Trent Edwards finished 5th and
6th respectively. Nobody picked the top defense (Philadelphia) to finish in the Top 5.
Nobody picked the second ranked defense (Atlanta) either.

Keeping score for week 1! This is the positional breakdown based on Week 1's rankings:
Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

1.QBs 2         	1.QBs 1		        1.QBs 3  		1.QBs 4
2.RBs 3		        2.RBs 4	   	        2.RBs 2                 2.RBs 1
3.WRs 2		        3.WRs 4		        3.WRs 3         	3.WRs 1
4.TEs 4  		4.TEs 3          	4.TEs 2         	4.TEs 1
5.DST 2         	5.DST 4         	5.DST 1         	5.DST 3

2009 Fantasy Football Tiered Player Rankings: Lucky Lester’s Top 220

Posted on August 29, 2009 by luckylester

I’m back again with yet another fantasy article, this one rates out my top 220 players for this season and this season only. I’ve already busted out a dynasty chart (without rookies) for the next three years, you could check that out here. It’s an older article, and while some things have changed, that look should give you a decent view of the future if you find yourself in a dynasty league late this fall – but remember, it happened before the draft, and thus is without rookies, a valuable resource in dynasty leagues.

I’ve also spent a little time busting out some tiered rankings for each position, hopefully helping you on draft day – check that out here. I’m breaking these down into tiers as well, because a ranking list is nothing without a little crying game. Also, looking at my final rankings and my earlier tiered rankings, you’ll see some small differences. Why? Well, that’s because things happen over a month that give me reason to move players up and down. Nothing is concrete!

When I rank players, I’m not saying, “this is going to be the final points standings at years’ end”, no, I’m saying that this is the order of value, fantasy points, and upside going into draft day, a sort of cheat sheet to help you assess value on D-Day. Hope this helps!

First Tier

1.	Adrian Peterson – Favre signing just enough to get him on top.
2.	Maurice Jones Drew
3.	Matt Forte
4.	Michael Turner – I might not be giving him enough credit, looks great!

Second Tier

5.	LaDainian Tomlinson
6.	Steve Slaton
7.	Frank Gore
8.	Andre Johnson
9.	Larry Fitzgerald
10.	DeAngelo Williams – J-Stew’s injury woes has Williams moving up.
11.	Steven Jackson
12.	Chris Johnson
13.	Randy Moss – Randy is Tom’s favorite weapon.
14.	Brian Westbrook

Third Tier

15.	Steve Smith
16.	Calvin Johnson
17.	Clinton Portis – All four of these backs are great value picks…
18.	Ronnie Brown - …
19.	Ryan Grant - …
20.	Brandon Jacobs – His O-line is the stuff championships are made of.
21.	Marion Barber
22.	Tom Brady
23.	Drew Brees

Forth Tier

24.	Anquan Boldin – Best #2 in the league.
25.	Reggie Wayne – Still one of the best with one of the best tossing him balls.
26.	Greg Jennings
27.	Darren McFadden – all the talent in the world, lots of touches.
28.	Roddy White
29.	Terrell Owens
30.	Marques Colston

Fifth Tier

31.	Marshawn Lynch
32.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Housh looks like a 115 catch guy to me.
33.	Eddie Royal – Marshall moves down, Eddie moves up!
34.	Vincent Jackson
35.	Dwayne Bowe
36.	Derrick Ward – A pretty risky pick considering RB talent in Tampa Bay.
37.	Larry Johnson
38.	Knowshon Moreno – I still believe!
39.	Wes Welker
40.	Jason Witten

Sixth Tier

41.	Reggie Bush
42.	Joseph Addai – Running with something to prove, should be decent.
43.	Chad Johnson
44.	Anthony Gonzalez – This guy is crafty.
45.	Pierre Thomas
46.	Roy Williams
47.	Kurt Warner
48.	Peyton Manning
49.	DeSean Jackson – Has looked better in year 2, moving up my list.
50.	Aaron Rodgers
51.	Phillip Rivers
52.	Antonio Gates
53.	Tony Romo
54.	Donovan McNabb
55.	LenDale White
56.	Felix Jones
57.	Thomas Jones
58.	Julius Jones – No love for JJ, I think he’ll be solid.
59.	Ray Rice
60.	Dallas Clark
61.	Tony Gonzalez

Seventh Tier

62.	Matt Schaub – Please stay healthy and prove me right!
63.	Lee Evans
64.	Bernard Berrien – Brett at least gives Berrien more flavor.
65.	Matt Hasselbeck – Matt’s moving up my list.
66.	Santana Moss
67.	Braylon Edwards
68.	Jonathan Stewart – Many upside here.
69.	Jamal Lewis – His offense may be terrible, but his O-line is solid.
70.	Tim Hightower
71.	Carson Palmer – Hurt again?
72.	Lance Moore
73.	Beanie Wells
74.	Jay Cutler – Looked better than I thought he would, but still not top notch.
75.	Chris Cooley
76.	Matt Ryan – I’m not believing 25+ touchdowns in year 2.
77.	Brandon Marshall – I hear he’s having some problems.

Eighth Tier

78.	Leon Washington – I think he’ll be used more this season.
79.	Cedric Benson
80.	Willie Parker
81.	Hines Ward
82.	Owen Daniels
83.	Greg Olsen
84.	Santonio Holmes
85.	Jericho Cotchery
86.	Antonio Bryant
87.	Devin Hester – Hasn’t shown much in the pre-season, should change though.

Ninth Tier

88.	David Garrard
89.	Matt Cassel
90.	Kellen Winslow – has yet to catch a ball in the pre-season.
91.	Torry Holt
92.	Rashard Mendenhall
93.	Ben Roethlisberger
94.	Donald Brown
95.	Jerious Norwood – One of the best back-up backs in the league.
96.	Darren Sproles
97.	Ahmad Bradshaw – looks really good in the pre-season.
98.	John Carlson
99.	Kyle Orton
100.	Nate Burleson – people are forgetting about him, do.
101.	Donnie Avery – Should be healthy by week one, #1 receiver late.
102.	Derrick Mason – old and good, not unlike the guy right below.
103.	Donald Driver

Tenth Tier

104.	Trent Edwards – Like him with Lee and TO out wide.
105.	Fred Jackson
106.	Kevin Walter
107.	Brett Favre – Hmmm…. I wonder.
108.	Zach Miller
109.	Dominik Hixon
110.	Cadillac Williams – Looked good to me, hope he gets more touches.
111.	LeSean McCoy
112.	Nate Washington – Better than people know, hurt early, good late pick.
113.	Joe Flacco
114.	Josh Morgan
115.	Daunte Culpepper – If the job was his, guarantee, I’d rank him higher.
116.	Chad Pennington
117.	Jason Campbell
118.	Ted Ginn Jr. – Super fast WR coming into his own.
119.	Steve Breaston
120.	Chris Henry – Yes, the #3 is ranked higher than the #2.
121.	Vinsanthe Shiancoe
122.	Earnest Graham
123.	Laveranues Coles
124.	Percy Harvin
125.	Jabar Gaffney
126.	Michael Crabtree – This guy is a soap opera already.
127.	Tony Scheffler
128.	Dustin Keller
129.	Fred Taylor
130.	Kenny Britt – Moving on up, lots of talent.
131.	Kevin Curits – Not sure if his upside is high enough for me to get late.
132.	Correll Buckhalter
133.	Jake Delhomme
134.	Jeremy Shockey
135.	Willis McGahee
136.	Chester Taylor
137.	Michael Bush
138.	Shaun Hill
139.	Eli Manning
140.	James Davis
141.	Shonn Greene – Like his talent, just don’t like 3rd RBs too much.
142.	JaMarcus Russell – has looked solid so far this pre-season.
143.	Le’Ron McClain
144.	Sammy Morris
145.	Justin Forsett

Eleventh Tier

146.	Laurence Maroney
147.	Tashard Choice
148.	Marc Bulger
149.	Chaz Schillens – hurt early, but looks good to me.
150.	Patrick Crayton
151.	Michael Clayton
152.	Isaac Bruce
153.	Joey Galloway
154.	Mark Clayton
155.	Earl Bennett ¬– Not sure he is fast enough.
156.	Maurice Stovall – Could be in line for starting duties.
157.	Brady Quinn
158.	Bobby Engram
159.	Vernon Davis
160.	Mohammad Massoquoi
161.	Peyton Hillis
162.	Hakeem Nicks
163.	Jeremy Maclin – The speedster might be a nice second half pick-up.
164.	Mark Sanchez
165.	Glen Coffee
166.	Steve Smith (NYG)
167.	Chris Chambers
168.	Anthony Fasano
169.	Jamaal Charles
170.	Mike Bell
171.	Sidney Rice
172.	Edgerrin James
173.	Ricky Williams
174.	Troy Williamson – Has the speedster finally arrived?
175.	Deion Branch
176.	Justin Fargas
177.	Brandon Petitgrew
178.	Laurent Robinson – liked him better than Mike Jenkins in ATL too.
179.	Michael Jenkins
180.	Mushin Muhammad
181.	Kevin Boss
182.	Malcom Kelly
183.	Brent Celek
184.	David Clowney – Becoming number two?
185.	Mark Bradley
186.	Miles Austin
187.	Bo Scaife
188.	Ladell Betts
189.	JerMichael Finley
190.	Chris Brown – could be a TD stealer, but I doubt it.
191.	Devone Bess
192.	DeShawn Wynn
193.	Mike Walker
194.	James Jones
195.	Dominic Rhodes
196.	Pierre Garcon
197.	Jordy Nelson
198.	Michael Vick – In deep leagues, maybe?
199.	Limas Sweed – Nate Washington’s targets?
200.	Antwan Randel-El
201.	Deon Butler
202.	Kevin Jones
203.	Jonnie Lee Higgins
204.	Heath Miller
205.	Marion Manningham
206.	Robert Meachem
207.	Brian Robiskie
208.	Chase Coffman
209.	Todd Heap
210.	Brandon Jackson – Could be #2 still, had a tough camp.
211.	Byron Leftwich
212.	Matthew Stafford
213.	Kerry Collins
214.	Sage Rosenfels – So much for sleeper, thanks Brett!
215.	Matt Leinart
216.	Vince Young
217.	Chad Henne
218.	Samkon Gado
219.	Bernard Scott
220.	Tarvaris Jackson – Mr. Irrelevant could play well if he gets the chance.

2009 NFL Fantasy Football: Lucky Lester Shares his Predictions

Posted on August 27, 2009 by luckylester

Last year’s predictions had some big winners, a couple tough luck losers, not to mention a handful of “what the hell was I thinking” fortunes that I told all wrong. I won’t get them all right this year either, but I’d like to think my waterfall of fantasy fodder will get you on the right track for your drafts, seasonal trade value, and possibly even a date with that girl that works at Victoria Secret. The brunette. As goes, I’ll spout off some claim, maybe even a sentence explaining why I think this, and will review the whole thing later in the year to see how it all went. All four of the writers doing work on this site will do an article similar to this, and in the end we’ll see who is the sharpest beach ball of them all. Let the games begin!

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks

Posted on July 31, 2009 by luckylester

Last year I busted out my Top 30 Quarterbacks (And other positions) in a tiered system, and many people thanked me for doing this all in a different and more helpful way. If you’ve drafted with help lists (or cheat sheets), you know there’s no better way than tiers. Not only do they help you assess value at a single position, but they also give you an open view at what’s left on your overall value board. These are how I rate out the quarterbacks for 2009, basically a prediction for how I think the quarterbacks will score out by season’s end. Hope this helps! Good luck on Draft Day!!!

Tom Brady (1)
Drew Brees (2)

Last year old Tom was numero uno and the only one in my first tier. How’d that work out? So well that I’m willing to rank him number one a second straight season. Okay, maybe he only had 3 fantasy points in 2009, but that was one heck of a pass to Randy for a big gain. He’ll be back this year and he still has Randy and Wes, some old running backs, and one heck of a head coach. If Matt Cassel can look like a stud in this system, you can bet Tom will do just fine. Drew Brees gets in the tier this year though. His coach is dumb enough to call Drew’s number on about 75% of the plays, and Drew is accurate and smart enough to take that and translate it into 30+ touchdowns and 5000 yards. Not too shabby. I still say, stay away on draft day if the cost is first round pay. Hay. Bay. May…

Kurt Warner (3)
Peyton Manning (4)
Aaron Rodgers (5)
Phillip Rivers (6)
Donovan McNabb (7)

My second tier is full of studs, some of them have question marks, some of them are always good, some of them really surprised last season. But they are all had at a better value than the first two guys, and thus they are all more likely to make it on to my team than either guy in Tier 1. Kurt Warner might not be the sexiest name out there, but the guy deserves credit. He has a very talented offense that just got another weapon in Beanie Wells and last time I checked Anquan Boldin is still lining up at WR in Arizona. You can get him later than this, but he’s looking like a Top 3 QB to me. Peyton has a lot of question marks (new coach, no Marvin, running game questions) but he’s always been a consistent signal caller with all the answers. Aaron Rodgers wowed the world in his first season replacing a legend, and he’s won over some fans. He was better than Favre last year, and looks to have sealed his position as a Top 7 QB. Phillip Rivers may throw marshmallows, and LT may be getting old, and he may have a couple receivers that fantasy football doesn’t give much credit, but this guy wins and he puts up numbers and he plays in a terrible division. I like his chances at another huge season. McNabb won’t get as much love this year, but he stayed healthy and did work last season. He gets another stellar set of weapons in Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy (Draft) and Westy should be back doing damage in the backfield. I think McNabb could have one of his best years since TO went wacko. This tier might not be the first, but they are all close to the top two, and hold better value for sure.

III

Tony Romo (8)

Tony Romo is a very good quarterback. TO’s departure isn’t going to kill him, but I do think it will effect him a little bit. It’s hard not to put him in the 2nd tier, and I’ll still be debating it all pre-season, but right now he’s going into tier 3 all by himself. He could be great, but it depends on Roy Williams, and I’m still waiting to see how that will work out. Does he have the talent to be one of the best? Yes. Weapons? Maybe…

Carson Palmer (9)
Matt Schaub (10)
Jay Cutler (11)

I didn’t get Carson Palmer’s rebound year right last season, but I’m hoping he fits well in my 3rd tier this time around. He was hurt basically all of 2008, but I expect 2009 to be different. Already the Bengals have a better rushing attack, and despite TJ Housh’s departure, a WR trio of Chad “Johnson”, Laveranues Coles, and Chris Henry isn’t something to scoff at. He’s far from safe, and I don’t know if I’d want him as my number one, but I think he’ll stay healthy, and if he does his talent will get him in the Top 10. Matt Schaub needs to stay healthy and he’d be a Top 5 guy. That’s right, he’s got an offense with lots of talent, an O-Line that is slowly getting respectable, and one of the biggest baddest receivers in the game. He had the 2nd most fantasy points per attempt last season, and I’ve always liked the kid. He’ll do work in 2009. I loved Cutler last year and he did great. I don’t think as much of him this season, but he’s no slouch. I don’t think the Bears have a receiver as good as either of the Broncos’ starters in 2008, but his running game is better, and the play calling will be more balanced. I’ve yet to figure out how much that will hurt him. What does hurt him is his love for the interception, if that haunts him again, even this relatively low ranking (for him) is too high. He needs to be consistent to be a top tier guy.

David Garrard (12)
Matt Ryan (13)
Matt Cassel (14)
Matt Hasselbeck (15)
Kyle Orton (16)
Ben Roethlisberger (17)
Eli Manning (18)

To make things easier on your life (keeping friends, not being angry and bitter, not quitting fantasy football altogether because you hate everything) I’d target somebody in the first 4 tiers… But, if you want to walk the line, take a chance, and really be a fantasy rebel, here are a group of guys that could deal out fantasy worthy numbers for you in 2009 – but don’t get really crazy and leave yourself without anybody in the top 19. Tiers 6 and on aren’t places you want to be choosing a fantasy starter from. David Garrard heads this list because despite a bad offense, no real receiving threat, an O-line that was never healthy, and being knocked down more than any other quarterback in the league, he was still a Top 12 QB last season. He’s good. He’s accurate, and unless forced into a hellstorm of 300lb defensive lineman, he’s as mistake free as they get. He has Tory Holt this season, and while old, Tory is still always open. Jones Drew will be in the back field even more in ’09, and that can only mean good things for Garrard. He’s not a top level guy, but he’s going to get you points week in and week out – there’s something to be said for that. Matt Ryan, here’s a guy with a high ceiling. But he’s still a second year player and he still is in an offense that will give lots of carries to two very good running backs, Turner and Norwood. Too many weapons isn’t a bad problem though. Matt Cassel makes the biggest jump from ’08 to ’09, but he looks like a nice back-up option with a high reward possible. He has a very offensive minded head coach, he’s accurate, he has some talented young receivers (Dwayne Bowe is legit) and while I don’t think he’ll match last year’s totals, he’ll be serviceable in ’09. Matt Hasselbeck is a pretty low risk pick here. He got the best receiver on the free agent market as an upgrade. All his hurt receivers are coming back, and his new offense should take more downfield chances. He’s still very accurate and if he can stay healthy, he could be back to the Pro Bowl. Kyle Orton might be an awkward name to see here, but why not? Orton is in a pretty good situation with and offensive genius, a decent O-line, a super talented rookie running back, two very good receivers and an accurate offense that fits his throwing style. He still has that weird facial hair, but if he can do what he did in Chicago, Denver might turn out to be real nice. Big Ben is an interesting case, he takes lots of hits and gets hurt a lot. He isn’t asked to make too many mistake happy throws, and he isn’t asked to light up the airways. He’ll never have high yardage numbers, and with a couple real good running backs, his TDs will be limited too – but he can start for you in more than a couple situations. Everybody was ready to anoint Eli as the second coming of Peyton – and while he kind of is, blood wise, he’s just not. He makes way too many mistakes. He doesn’t have the most talented set of receivers, and he’s never played that well without Plax. Plus, don’t look now but his numbers seem to be declining – is that a good sign for a young QB? At least he won a Super Bowl…

Sage Rosenfels (19)
Joe Flacco (20)
Jason Campbell (21)
Jake Delhomme (22)
Marc Bulger (23)
Trent Edwards (24)
Shaun Hill (25)
Chad Pennington (26)
Daunte Culpepper (27)

I actually think Sage could be a starter (fantasy-wise) at some point during the season. He’s had some great games over the years, but he also makes some bone-head moves. He won’t be asked to light up the airways in Minnesota, but I do think he’ll win the job, and it’s not like ‘Sota is a place without weapons. Percy Harvin can only help to take some attention away from Bernard Berrien, and Adrian Peterson will require 7-8 guys near the box most of the time. Sage could really surprise. Joe Flacco loses Derrick Mason, and old guy who just happened to be his best receiver. Todd Heap is a shadow of his former self. I like Mark Clayton, but as a number 1? Yikes. But Joe put up solid points last year and he’s got a cannon. Jason Campbell was almost traded, but that doesn’t mean he won’t play well. Looking for a new chance, a new contract, and having a coach that believes in him are three things I like about the former Auburn Tiger. Campbell has the tools, I just hope that off season motivated him. Jake Delhomme had a semi-successful return from elbow surgery, and he might be even stronger in 2009, but his huge interceptions and the fact that Carolina runs the ball half the time makes Jake a tough sell to me, even with one of the scariest receivers in the league. Marc Bulger once had a promising career. Then he signed a big contract. Now he just throws interceptions. Still, those big numbers came from somewhere, and this late that might be worth a shot. Trent Edwards has TO on his side now. An older TO, sure, but still a freak of nature. Will that make him fantasy worthy in ’09? I bet a lot of leagues will see him owned on draft day. I’m not sure I believe the hype, but 2 talented receivers and couple solid running backs might have Trent as a steal on draft day. I’m assuming Shaun wins the job in SF, but you never know. Still, when he does play he usually makes good things happen. It’s never pretty, but Hill has started for me a couple times and always come through. Chad Pennington might deserve more love than this, I just don’t see any upside, and as a #3 *maybe low end #2 fantasy QB, low upside is Chinese water torture. Daunte Culpepper might not even get the start, but I’d love to see what happens if he does. If he’s in good shape, he might have just found his Randy Moss clone in Calvin Johnson, and if it weren’t for a few bad seasons, almost no future, and a #1 pick rookie QB behind him, I might just rank him higher…

VII

Brady Quinn (28)
JaMarcus Russell (29)
Byron Leftwich (30)
Vince Young (31)
Matthew Stafford (32)
Kerry Collins (33)
Mark Sanchez (34)

I find it coincidental that these two find themselves ranked in the same tier, albeit a different order than a couple seasons ago when they found themselves drafted in the 1st round. JaMarcus actually looked pretty damn good at the end of the season, throwing 2 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games. But he plays for the Raiders. Not much better, but a little higher ranked in my lists, is Brady Quinn. Both of these guys have some talent, but I don’t see more than a handful of wins from each team and that usually doesn’t mean fantasy prowess. Byron Leftwich could find a nice fantasy situation, but who knows, I can’t trust him much, even though I like the guy. He has a couple good running backs, a nice offensive line, and a couple decent receivers – but he still winds up like Hideo freaking Nomo… Vince Young is the back-up in Tennessee, maybe, but I still think he’s the most valuable of QB’s there. Kerry Collins (even if he does start) isn’t worth anything fantasy-wise, where Vince can do some amazing things if he ever gets the chance again. Matt Stafford has a huge arm, and could be throwing to Calvin Johnson, so there’s at least 10 TDs… I already talked about Kerry, hope you never see that guy on your team. Mark Sanchez has a talented player or two in New York, and he’s a better fantasy prospect than the guy who will likely start, but I don’t see a fantasy worthy year out of either. Last but least I guess, but there’s 34….

Dynasty/Keeper Rankings TOP 112: 2009 Fantasy Football

Posted on April 2, 2009 by luckylester

Its quite unlike me to do a fantasy football rankings article toward the end of March, close enough to the draft that I should be focussed solely on the new cats entering the league, but unable to really include them because of the reality that their new uniforms have yet to be selected, and thus their bright future yet to be predicted. But this is going to be different.

There have been a number of emails asking me to do a fantasy article ranking players in a Dynasty League format. Dynasty leagues are those in which you keep all of the players that you draft, therefor taking ages, contracts, and their long term future more into account than in your yearly re-draft leagues or even leagues with a small number of keepers (1-3). Re-drafts in a dynasty format are often just rookie/free agent drafts and the veteren players only change teams if moved by their respective owner, either to the waiver wire or through a trade. This format has become more and more popular as it gives fantasy owners the feeling of team ownership, building from the ground up, often choosing to decide between winning now or building for later. It also gives losing teams something to look forward to, or the ability to trade crafty veterans for youth moving forward. It’s a whole new fantasy world, no doubt about it. You’re looking for solid production for at least 3 seasons – that allows you to continue to build through drafts and win now.

In many dynasty leagues that are starting this season, there will be a veteran draft in a snake format followed by a rookie draft in the opposite snake format. 1-12 and back for one, then 12-1 and back for the next. It evens out the board a bit, giving the teams drafting late a chance to make up for their lack of Top-5 power and take a blue-chip rookie going forward. But we’ll talk about rookies in the next few months, and closer to the start of the 2009 season.

I am ranking these players based on a format that starts this lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D. That format gives wide receivers a little added value based on the fact that you start 3 of them compared to just 2 RBs. Also, the point system is a PPR (point per reception) format, which many leagues have moved to. That also gives WRs a little added bonus, the same goes for pass catching running backs. QBs get 6 points for touchdowns just like everyone else, and other than that, the scoring is very normal. Under this scoring format last season, the top 4 point scoring options were Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Kurt Warner – in that order. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were the only non-quarterbacks in the Top 8, and DeAngelo Williams finished with 6 more points than Matt Forte to take the running back title. That doesn’t mean QBs hold more value than RBs, same with WRs, but it does put points into perspective a little bit.

I won’t be ranking D’s or K’s because I don’t care enough to do it. Also there’s some clutter in the middle a bit, that I argued with myself about a lot, but that’s the order I went with and I’ll own it. Throw in a comment (or email my uncle -papaweimer50@hotmail.com, i pretty much run his old pathetic life anyway – haha) and let me know what you think. Can’t fit them all in 112 spots…

Without further jib-jab and point scoring hog-wash, these are my 2009 dynasty fantasy rankings pre-draft. This is, more or less, how I think they’ll rate out over the next three seasons combined.

Maurice Jones-Drew (absolute stud, and will get more carries and touches this season, just like Josh said, this guy’s point per touch numbers are absurd)
Adrian Peterson (most people’s number one, should have his best year next season)
Matt Forte (lots of touches for Matt, especially through the air, great feet for a big guy)
Chris Johnson (Some people thought he was too small, the Titans didn’t, they win)
Michael Turner (Justifiably some say he’s #1, his age and full load drop him a few spots in my Dynasty rankings)
Steven Jackson (still very young and very talented – not much help in St. Louis, but the talent is there)
Larry Fitzgerald (this guy is basically unstoppable)
DeAngelo Williams (I’ve always liked his running style, and despite the great back-up behind him, he still ranks high)
Andre Johnson (the only other non RB in my Top 10, AJ big brother’s DBs all year long)
Marion Barber (he’s not going to get picked this high in drafts, but a return to prominence for MBIII is almost a guarantee)
Calvin Johnson (if he were on a better team, this guy would be fighting Fitz, still his per touch numbers are awesome and he’s only getting better as that terrible Lions team improves – if Cutler goes there, watch out)
Frank Gore (always one of my favorites, the center point of a run first offense, talent high, but injuries keep him out of the Top 10)
Greg Jennings (young, strong, great young QB, the more touches he gets the better)
Steve Slaton (some people see Slaton as a 3rd Down back, too small, but he’ll always be better than Fragile Reggie)
Brandon Jacobs (Jacobs runs too hard to stay injury free, despite being the size of a D-end, but while he’s in he’s good for 100 yards and a TD – plus he’s young)
Reggie Bush (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be lower, still in a PPR league he’s a solid play 20th RB last season missing 6+ games – + meaning he missed most of a couple other games)
Roddy White (Roddy deserves more credit – he’s a stud – a go to guy for a great young QB on an improving team)
Anquan Boldin (a couple donkeys say Boldin isn’t a #1, haha, I hope he goes somewhere else and proves everyone wrong)
Steve Smith (His age – and physicality – drops him a bit, but he’s that close to Roddy and ‘Quan – and as fun to watch as anyone in the league – look how good he makes Delhomme look sometimes)
Phillip Rivers (So what if he throws marshmallows, his team is turning pass happy, plays in a terrible division, and is just 27 years old – he’ll toss 40 TDs one of these years – and we’re the exact same age, to the day – it’s fate! ha)
Marques Colston (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be higher)
Kevin Smith (He won’t go this high, I promise, but invest now and you’ll reap the benefits of this talented back later)
Brandon Marshall (If it weren’t for his ability to “find himself in bad situations” – hide and seek champ – he’d rank higher)
Clinton Portis (Clinton will be 28 in September, going on 32 – I love the guy’s fight, but that drops the talented back into the 20s)
Drew Brees (This guy plays tricks on defenses – the only problem is that I don’t know how much longer that idiot running this team will have a head coaching job, and another guy would surely run a more conservative and smarter offense)
Ryan Grant (He may have struggled a bit last season, but he’s young and this offense will get better and rely on him more heavily next season)
Joseph Addai (I can’t quite give up on Addai yet, but he’s never really impressed me as a runner. He’s thrown up some solid stat lines, but aside from pure numbers he doesn’t impress me as much as he does others)
Peyton Manning (Elder Manning is 33, but still has a handful of good years left in him – but he’ll be 36 in 3 years, and you never know how age, and a new coach, will change a guy)
Ronnie Brown (Ronnie will go under the radar in drafts, and this might even be a little low for one of the best all around backs in the league)
Tony Romo (I might take Romo over Manning, but I wonder the impact of losing TO and how it will effect Tony, still a top flight QB though, and young)
Tom Brady (Nobody does it like Tom – but his knee still has questions, and this team can’t be young forever)
Reggie Wayne (he’s actually getting up there in age a bit, 31 or so, he’ll have a couple real good years, then start to die off, which is why he falls a bit now)
Dwayne Bowe (Dwayne Bowe, watch Anquan Boldin films, that’s going to be you in a year or two – Bowe could break into the Top 10 this year)
Aaron Rodgers (Explosive young arm with a great receiving corps and an improving offense – only his second year – could be great)
Darren McFadden (I don’t care what people say, this is probably too low – still, I can’t put a Raider higher than Bo Jackson’s old number – Bo knows Al Davis is a team killing psycho path!)
Eddie Royal (this looks like a reach now, but he’s like Wes Welker with elite speed and great maneuverability)
Matt Ryan (this may be a reach, but I’m ranking for the next 3 years, and I’d love to have Matty Ice when he matures)
Randy Moss (Randy’s old, but still basically unguardable with Tom Brady hucking footballs – only a couple real good years left though which drops him a bit)
Marshawn Lynch (Obviously keep an eye on his situation, the kid will be suspended, and has been a question mark since draft day – on the football field he’s a great RB option)
Braylon Edwards (very good player when he’s on, yet quite drop-happy and not as physical as his body – should be much better than he was last season, and still very young – doesn’t have great speed though)
Derrick Ward (Could be an interesting time share in Tampa, but they brought Ward in to be the guy, and though he’s never been a beacon of health, he’s a very physical runner with good vision, and this O-line is underrated – he’s a young 29 though)
Jonathan Stewart (Might seem ridiculous, but I’d rather have JS than Westbrook or LT, and this guy’s a backup)
Brian Westbrook (This is where age shows it’s ugly face a bit, Westy might be a Top 5 guy this coming season but he’ll be 30 during this year and has always had health issues – still a great player though, just don’t overbid in Dynasty Leagues)
LaDainian Tomlinson (I think LT has at least one really good season left in him, remember Michael Turner just had an unreal season while LT really struggled – and by the way, they were only 7 fantasy point apart – LT still has it, for at least another year)
Vincent Jackson (Now’s the time, before Phillip uses Jackson as his number one for a full season)
Jason Witten (I don’t think much of TEs, but Witten is the #1 in Dallas, don’t be confused by Jerry telling you it’s Roy Williams – oh, and Witten is a flat out stud)
TJ Houshmanzadeh (it’s unbelievable how solid his numbers were last year despite being forked in one of the worst offenses in football – he’s perfect for the Seahawks and unless he’s cursed with injuries like all Hawks’ receivers, he should be solid – but he’s 32 this season – which drops him a bit)
Carson Palmer (remember when he was in the Peyton, Tom, and Drew draft area? Well, he’ll get back there – this guy has all the tools – probably a good time to invest)
Wes Welker (he might not be flashy, but he’s a PPR dynamo and very good at what he does, not PPR, not as good)
Matt Cassel (risky? maybe – but I’ll risk it on a leader I really like on a team with talent to catch passes and a new offensive genius as his head coach – not as risky as it may sound as I agree with McDaniels, I’d rather have Cassel than Cutler)
Jay Cutler (Jay might have been higher before he pouted his way out of Denver, I’m just not impressed with grown men acting like entitled little bitches, what can I say – still, he’s a great talent with a rocket arm)
Willis McGahee (sometimes sportswriters take chances, I’m taking one on a guy I don’t like all that much, I’m saying Willis turns it around and finishes well above this ranking – still, the risk brings him down a bit)
Matt Schaub (this is the season for Matt to lead his team to the playoffs and stay injury free, just that alone will put him in the Top 10 QBs)
Antonio Gates (Gates is moving fast toward 30, and his hoops background is rearing it’s ugly head – for those of you in fantasy basketball, you know exactly what I mean – still, he’s a touchdown machine and Rivers knows it)
Ben Roethlisberger (Big Ben will be better this season, he just needs to stay healthier, and improved line will help that)
DeSean Jackson (I like him a lot, and think he’ll be a very good one in Philly, despite his tiny frame)
Felix Jones (something tells me he’ll get used more this season, now might be a good time to get this speedy young runner)
Santonio Holmes (interesting cat, but very, very good – should see more balls, but don’t overpay for Super Bowl glory)
Donovan McNabb (Right above TO, planned that – McNabb will be an old 33 this season, and with no sure contract situation and last years’ struggles, I can’t guarantee anything form Donovan, except that he’s one of the best QBs in the league on a pretty damn good football team)
Terrell Owens (A one year contract interests me always, but he’ll likely never get a longer one, still – one of the best WRs playing every single season for next year’s contract – I’ll take a chance on him, even in Buffalo – he’s older, no doubt, but in pretty good shape anyway)
Lee Evans (Despite Edwards’ struggles, I still think he’ll be solid – add TO as a guy to take some pressure off Evans and I think Lee has a nice year – even if TO leaves next season, Evans will still be an elite talent)
Eli Manning (I hate to do it, but I had to include Pouty-face in here somewhere, it’s personal, so he might be better than this)
Santana Moss (In the 2nd season of Zorn’s system, this whole offense will move more efficiently, and Moss will benefit – turns 30 this year, but WRs should go worry free until 33 or so)
Roy Williams (he’s young, has had a couple really good seasons, is the #1 in Dallas on a solid offensive team with a very good young quarterback – hell, this is too low – but there’s obviously some risk here, a guy with more ballsy would put him at 44)
Antonio Bryant (I just can’t be sure about Bryant – what a great finish, scoring more points over the last 10 games than any receiver in football, that has to be worth something – he’s this far down because, well, he was out of football the year before last, can’t ignore that really)
Bernard Berrian (steal on draft day I think – probably should rank him a little higher, I actually like Sage throwing him the ball)
Anthony Gonzalez (something tells me that Anthony will see a lot of balls over the next 3 years, and very well could rate out higher than this)
Donnie Avery (there’s no doubt in my mind that this kid will be the #1 in St. Louis next season, great upside there, but this team should struggle for a couple years at least – still, better to risk on upside)
Chad Ocho-Cinco (you’ll be able to get him cheap, he’s getting older, he says one thing and does another and he changed his name to a fake spanish number – all that being said, he’s still #85 and gets his QB back this season)
Jericho Cotchery (do I like Cotchery? you bet – do I like Kellen Clemmens? not a chance – but Cotchery is still a nice receiver and should average 80 grabs over the next 3 years, so this might be low for him – not great upside here though)
Joe Flacco (Maybe he should go higher than this, his future is bright, that’s for sure. Still, Mason is aging and I’m not sure there’s another great offensive player on that roster)
David Garrard (I still don’t see any receiving help for this poor guy, but his O-line should be way better this season – and despite what people think, he was pretty decent as a starting option last year – 12th overall)
Rashard Mendenhall (he’ll go really late in drafts this year, what a time to get him, I still think he’s right there – talentwise – with anybody else from last year’s super talented class, this is too low, but he’s still risky)
Domenik Hixon (he might not be a #1, and I doubt the Giants will let that happen, but I like this kid as a solid HR threat #2 and I expect him to play a nice roll in NY over the next couple years – I like him more than the other WRs on that roster)
Matt Hasselbeck (how many years does Matty have left? his back might have a better answer than me – but he’ll be solid as long as he’s still around – the Hawks offense will be much improved this season)
Deion Branch (good player, injury troubles have held him back, and he’s not a #1, but now he doesn’t have to be, and he’s still young enough to be good in the Hawks passing attack)
Pierre Thomas (if I trusted Sean Payton, he’d be a heck of a lot higher – if he ever moves teams, he shoots way up the chart)
Leon Washington (he’s talented enough to take a chance, but I don’t know if his coaches will give him the #1 job, and Thomas Jones was successful last season – still, this young offensive line is talented and getting better, and Washington has at least as much upside as Darren Sproles)
Fred Jackson (Fred is a very good player that will probably get lots of time with Marshawn doing dumb things, a little risk could go along way with this kid)
Thomas Jones (Yeah, I ranked his back-up ahead of him, so what – Jones is aging and while I still like him, he’s not really impressing the new staff with his hold-out threats)
Tony Gonzalez (he may have a couple more years, but he’s in as good a shape as most 25 year olds, and even if he plays just 2 more he’ll rank out higher than most 3 year TEs)
Dallas Clark (he’ll be one of Peyton’s top targets with Marvin gone, and he’s a pretty sure thing to be in the Top 5 over the next few years)
Kellen Winslow (I like him better than Dallas Clark, but it’s very close, and Dallas has the QB advantage and health on his side, so Kellen moves behind him)
Lance Moore (if I trusted Sean Payton, Lance wouldn’t be this high)
Hines Ward (all he does is do the same good things year after year after year, consistently from game to game, and he’ll always be underrated – even though he’s 33 and plays a more physical football than most receivers, aging him faster perhaps, still, this is probably too low for a sure thing)
Steve Breaston (he’ll be a #2 somewhere, if not in Arizona next season, then sometime soon down the line, he’s good enough to hold on to)
Ted Ginn Jr. (could be a very good WR, he showed flashes last season, but there’s still enough question to keep him behind a lot of receivers)
Chris Cooley (what a character – Cooley is a top notch receiver that should be even better in his 2nd season in this system)
Sage Rosenfels (I think he’ll be good – that’s right, will probably draft him in more than a few leagues as my back-up – lots of risk here, but lots of upside too)
John Carlson (His rookie year was a big success, he blocks well so he’ll always be on the field which makes him a solid red-zone touchdown target)
Dustin Keller (probably a better receiver than Carlson, but not as physical and not as good of a QB, still this kid’s upside has a higher ceiling than JC’s)
Trent Edwards (It’s tough to say, but I like Trent and think his sophomore slump will be exactly that – something you look back at and say, that was an aberration and this kid is going to be good – still, anybody in charge of Buff’s offense has risk)
Chris Chambers (I wonder what happend last season – Chris played in every game and had just 33 grabs for 462 yards and 5 scores – I’m willing to bet he improves those numbers next season, he’s only 31 this season, but just incase, he’s not ranked high enough to get a bunch of crap for)
Brady Quinn (here’s to hoping he goes to Denver and succeeds – still, I’ve never been sold on Brady)
Mark Clayton (the former first round pick had a nice thing going with Flacco, his second 7 games were worth 31 fantasy points – his last 9 were good for 110)
Torry Holt (we’ll see where he signs, he’s aging for sure, but I’m not ready to believe he’s done, he’s always open)
Owen Daniels (not much not to like about this kid, except that he’s a TE – still, he’s very consistent which is rare for TEs not named Gonzo, Witten, Clark, and Gates)
Donald Driver (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
Derrick Mason (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
Jason Campbell (probably shouldn’t be this low, but after the first 12-15 QBs, what can you do, i wouldn’t mind having him to be a back-up on my squad over the next few seasons)
Michael Clayton (maybe this is nuts, but with Gruden gone I think Clayton’s not so “puckered up” as he was over the last few years, and the kid has enough talent to succeed)
Josh Morgan (talented enough to do it, offensive passing attack a question in San Fran, still, I like this kid a lot)
Kevin Walter (effective, but a white wide receiver nonetheless, sorry if I can’t believe)
Miles Austin (I have to think he’ll get enough looks to be fantasy worthy, and his upside is greater than Patrick Crayton’s)
James Jones (I’ve always liked him a ton, he fell behind a little bit last season, but he’ll be a nice #2 in this league some time over the next 3 seasons)
Jeremy Shockey (gotta wonder about this werid-o, never been a fan, but if he stays healthy, and out of the dog house, he’s talented enough)
Zach Miller (good young red zone target, if the Raiders ever get there he’ll be a solid option)
Laurence Maroney (worth a pick late in dynasty leagues, I have always loved his talent but he can’t stay on the field and his HC isn’t a huge fan)
Chad Pennington (he needed to go on the list, I just don’t think he has more than one season as a starter)
JaMarcus Russell (you have to feel bad for a kid that gets stuck in Oakland – I believe JaMarcus!)
Plaxico Burress (I think Plax was/is stupid – no doubt about that – however, mando-mins are the stupidest thing ever and should be abolished – he’s a super talented cat, but prison time is on the horizon which means his career could be shut down)
Michael Vick (Yeah, he’s on the list, he’s an athletic freak and he did his time – get the hell over it – I’m a dog lover and after a guy spends time in jail for what he did, has to start his life and career over, I’m going to wish him the best)

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 16

Posted on December 18, 2008 by Papa Weimer

You know the gig, so I’ll get right to the questions and answers… Enjoy… Congrats to those playing this week.

David writes in, “A couple quickies, Browns or 49ers, Keller or Z Miller? I need to pick between those… Thanks!”

That’s a good questions, but I my first instinct is that I’d go with the 49ers and Zach Miller – Miller is just more consistent, and he doesn’t have to rely on Brett throwing good or throwing piss. However, the Seahawks are dead last in the NFL in passing yards given up and only 5 teams have given up more passing touchdowns than they have. Houston’s not much better but they are a little, they are in the middle of the pack as to yards allowed. The Jets love to throw the ball so even thought it’s stupid for them not to give the ball to Thomas Jones, they will likely try to get their yards through the air, even though it is snowy and cold in Seattle this week (believe me, I’m just an hour or so North and it’s snowy and windy here). So after thinking about it long and hard, the Hawks match-up has me swaying more toward Keller. I don’t know man, it’s so hard. I guess if you need a big day from him, go for Keller, he has 3 scores this season and has had more great games. But if you want a sure thing, Miller is your guy. Over the last 11 weeks he’s had less than 40 yards receiving just once. Once. THat’s crazy for a TE. But he only has one TD. I’d go SF over Cleveland because of a couple reasons, 1. They have better playmakers on their defense and instead of playing deflated (like the Browns), they have been playing inspired since Mike took over as head coach. Also, Marc Bulger is and always will be a sitting duck that throws picks. Also, if I’m taking one defense in the Browns game, it’s probably the Bengals. They’ve been way better against the run lately – they haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since Mewelde Moore in Week 7, and they’ve allowed just two all year. Crazy huh? And Dorsey can’t throw.

Johnson-ville from Jacksonville asks, “Would you start DeAngelo WIlliams, Joseph Addai, or Kevin Smith?”

JV, I’d go with Kevin Smith. I think he gets about 25 carries against the Saints this week, and I have a feeling that the Lions offensive line will be doing work against a Saints team that is basically already checked out. They’ve been eliminated. Bush is out. This should be a running game versus Drew Brees’ attempt to break the yardage record held by Dan Marino. I think Kevin Smith busts 100 yards and has a touchdown. I don’t think Addai or Williams will break the century mark in their respective match-ups.

Tim-e from Portland asks, “We have to decide our keepers in my work league before the last game in Week 17 – so I’m looking for some advice. I’m in a 12 team league where you have 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX, – It’s PPR, and you get bonuses for 100 yards at WR and RB, 50 yards at tight end, and 300 at QB – double bonus at 200, 100, and 450 – which four would you keep? DeAngelo Williams, Drew Brees, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Jason Witten – thanks in advance.”

Tiny Tim-E – Interesting scoring format, and I think it definitely changes things. It seems like Witten is a great option, even though I hate the idea of keeping a TE – the way I see it is this, he’s going to bust 100 yards often, and thus he’s going to get double bonus action a lot. That is a huge bonus and could win you weeks. Led by a TE? Probably not, but he is definitely a big time scorer for you. I also hate keeping QBs, so I probably wouldn’t keep Drew. He’s having a hell of a year, sure, but as you well know QBs don’t blow up year after year after year. Now Drew’s about as sure as it gets, but part of me wants to keep Slaton, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. But, since Drew is a solid 300 option against just anybody in the league and thus his bonus will be enforced often. So, that takes one away from Slaton, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. I like Slaton, but I think Johnson is the more explosive of the two, and I have to imagine that LenDale gets less and less in that offense. So, my final answer is Drew, Witten, Marshall, and Chris Johnson. I think Marshall is one of the best in the league, and as Cutler matures Marshall will only get better and better.

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