Tag Archives: NFL Free Picks

Arizona Cardinals VS New Orleans Saints: NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs

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How can the Cardinals play as well as they did last weekend? Kurt Warner almost had more completions than he did attempts, and that’s actually impossible. The Saints defense is tougher than it gets credit for, and though they will be missing their starting defensive end, as Grant’s out for the season, they will be as healthy as they’ve been in the secondary in a long time. That will play a big role in this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Because, if I know anything, I know Captain Kurt will be winging that pigskin around.

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The Saints lost their last 5 games against the spread and actually lost their final three games straight up. They were 8-8 ATS this season, just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, which means, yes, they were 6-0 ATS to start the season. Aside from their first loss of the season, in Dallas in Week 15, the Saints dominated playoff teams, beating the Eagles 48-22, the Jets 24-10, and the Patriots 38-17. The question is, which Saints team will show up? The team that dominated both sides of the ball during the first 13 games of the season or the team that held on for dear life in the last 3 games, two of which they were actually trying to win?

The Cardinals rarely put two solid games together all season long. They won a few big games against big time opponents (okay, they only playoff team they beat during the regular season was Minnesota) but most of their good wins were either surrounded by losses or followed by them. I expect the Saints to play their best football of the last 6 weeks, and I suspect that will be enough to beat a Cardinals team that won’t be on fire like they were last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Preview

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This is a scary match-up for Denver, I’m telling you. Sure, Denver is in a must win situation against a pretty bad Chiefs team, and they are playing in Denver to boot, but with everything happening the way it has happened this week in Denver, and with the Chiefs coming in running the ball well, this game could be a grinder. And a grinder against a bottom 5 team to get into the playoffs is never a good thing.

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I know the Broncos can beat up on the Chiefs, they’ve done so against lower level competition a few times already this year, but can they do it with all the crap flying around this team right now? The benching of your best player because he’ supposedly over-doing his hamstring injury? They need to win and get in, and all the Chiefs have to do is come and make it a game? This game has upset written all over it.

You might say that the Chiefs, like the Rams, have nothing to play for except hurting themselves come draft time – but they aren’t going for the top pick, and they aren’t committed to any one position come draft time, plus a win for this first year coach over a team fighting for the playoffs would be huge for the team’s confidence going forward – that, my friends, is something to play for. And I like all those points, seems like too many to me!

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos

Arses Five Favorites: Week 16 NFL Preview

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Ugh, I lost 4 games for the second week in a row, bringing me to 14-11 over five weeks of free picks. From what I hear, that’s not too bad, but still, it’s bean feast or fart for me in five weeks of picks, two weeks with 4 wins or more, two weeks with a single win, and that one 3-2 week. Anyway, I have to keep rolling, just two more weeks to go, and I like some favorites the public doesn’t seem too fond of and see a couple big public favorites that look good to me as well. Here’s my top 5 favorites for Week 16…

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Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) @ home VS Buffalo: The Bills aren’t explosive enough offensively to stick with Atlanta. Sure, Michael Turner will likely be out again, but Matt Ryan is back, and an Atlanta team taking more chances with receivers like Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White might be a good thing. The Falcons are 5-2 at home – only 40% of the public likes them – count me in that 40%.

Green Bay (-14) @ home VS Seattle: This game is a bit of a joke. The Packers have been playing very aggressively all year offensively, and most of the year defensively. The Hawks are as soft as room temp butter. 35-13.

Dolphins (-3) @ home VS Texans: The Dolphins are solid at home, and they are just more consistent than Houston because of their strong offensive line and efficient rushing attack. Houston is sexier, sure, but Miami can just get it done.

Patriots (-7.5) @ home VS Jacksonville: Please. The Jaguars give choke artists a bad name. Tom Brady isn’t going to keep throwing incomplete passes all the way into the playoffs, I promise, the guy is going to turn it around, why not against a Jaguars secondary that has trouble stopping themselves. And don’t even get me started on Jacksonville’s offense. Does Del-Rio know their best player needs to touch the ball more? Answer, last week, yes, this week? Nope!

Eagles (-7) @ home VS Denver: The Broncos defense has struggled against elite passing attacks, losing and failing to cover against Indy, San Diego, and Pittsburgh so far this season. And to make me hate their chances even more, they lost to the freaking Raiders last week, with their old starter, new #3 QB, JaMarcus Russell, leading the Raiders to victory. C’mon Man!!!

Papas Picks: Predictions for NFL Week 15 2009

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Last week I only pulled out one win, this up and down roller coaster crap will make an old guy poop himself, but hopefully I can make it to Lucky’s pillow before I let it go. I can’t believe I ever picked the Seahawks, good lord they are an embarrassment. The Bears as well. Oh well, the Chargers made sure I didn’t go winless, but everyone else made me look like a senile gray nose haired bastard. Some would argue that a mirror would show the same thing, but some would get punched in the face by an old guy – and how can you press charges against an old guy? I love me some dogs this week, and I all but guarantee three wins from this bunch. Hold your breath…

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San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia: Lucky said it right when he mentioned that the 49ers have one single double digit loss this season – only one single loss by more than one score – that’s good enough for a +9 bet no matter who they are playing. I liked seeing Mr. Singletary get back to his run game last week against a good run defense – and while I’m sure the Niners will shoot themselves in the foot with the pass, they are good enough to play with the Eagles. Close games are their MO.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I don’t know why, but the Dolphins look like a good bet here. They are questionable in the secondary, but that shouldn’t hurt them too bad here. They have been able to run on anyone, and that could help them keep this close. Expect them to take a few more chances this week. They might lose, but Tennessee is king of the field goal win, and that still makes my Dolphins an ATS winnner.

Green Bay Packers (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I don’t get it. Are the books senile too? This crap never gets old, last year’s super bowl team no longer exists guys, that’s a thing of the past, like when skinny jeans took over for MC Hammer pants as the next thing that is cool now that will be remembered with lots of suck, the Steelers are an old champ that resemble hammer pants in today’s game. I’m taking the Pack by a couple scores. Champions don’t play all that well with nothing on the line, and their line has been stepped right over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Seattle Sehawks: Boy the Hawks are bad. Josh Freeman shouldn’t have as much trouble against this soft defense that has loved giving up big plays. Expect the Bucs to do just enough, going as far as nearly pulling the upset in Seattle.

Free Football Picks Review: NFL Week 14 2009

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Well, a couple underdog picks made me look really bad with my free football picks for week 14 NFL, but isn’t that always the case when underdog picks go awry? Work with me here… When you take a big favorite to cover the spread, say the Saints by 10.5 in Atlanta against a Falcons team without their starting QB and RB, and New Orleans barely covers, a field goal win, then everyone gets together and says, “Oh, tough luck, bad beat, I see where you were coming from, it’s too bad, you can’t win them all.” and so on and so forth – but when you take a team like Detroit to cover against the Ravens and they end up losing 48-3, everyone says, “what a dope, what the hell were you thinking?” – well, I was thinking lots of stuff, and in the end it didn’t work out. But dogs win, as you can very well see. Dogs didn’t always do me well this week, but I finished 9-7 for yet another winner. Not a huge week, but I’m starting to think my end of the year tally is going to look pretty nice. Not many losing weeks in that heap! Here’s how Week 14 went down…

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Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @Cleveland Browns (Loss) Here’s a favorite that just ended up kicking me in the shins. I’m not sure what to think about the Steelers, but looking at next week’s game, where they might be an underdog, I might just have to come back to the well. Can they play this terrible again?

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+10.5) (WINNER) This is one of my dandy picks of the week, Redman was much better, and the Falcons always come to play at home, just like they did against New Orleans. A field goal win for the Saints wasn’t enough to keep me out of the winner’s circle.

Detroit Lions (+13.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss) The Lions failed me. I thought Daunte Culpepper was going to come out and do work, but the Ravens finally did work offensively, getting a huge game from Ray Rice, and beating up on the kitty cats.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears (WINNER) The Packers dominated the Bears on the ground, getting a great game from Ryan Grant, and beat the Bears by a touchdown. It wasn’t as easy as the masses expected, but the touchdown win did the job.

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ Houston Texans (Loss) Oh Seattle, as you well know, you should be fading me on Hawks picks by now. I once again blew it in trying to predict how this team would play, and put way too much thought into the fact that they were getting healthy – Seattle didn’t care about this game one little bit. Nice work Jim Mora… Or can I just call you Richard for long?

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss)The Broncos fought back, but they couldn’t get that late score I needed to turn a 12 point gap into a winner – Peyton and crew do it again. Amazing.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (WINNER) The Dolphins were the better team, winning outright in Jacksonville. What can I say, this game just felt like one of those Jacksonville was supposed to lose. A win would have really helped their playoff resume, I guess that’s why, it just meant too much.

Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (WINNER) Buffalo couldn’t contain Jamal Charles and the Chiefs rushing attack, but that’s okay, because they found 4 interceptions and just enough offense to garner a couple points – with less than 100 yards passing, the Bills won by 6. Gross. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings (Loss) The Bengals got handled pretty well. I liked them to make a game of this, surprise people once again, but I guess that will have to wait until next week. With a loss here, they should have a nice spread next time out. I’ll get my win one way or another!

Carolina Panthers (+14) @ New England Patriots (WINNER) The Panthers weren’t good, really, but they can run on anyone. Leave it up to John Fox and company to be within a score almost all game long and still end up with more pass attempts than rushes. It hurts my brain to even think about how that is possible, especially with DeAngelo averaging 6.5 yards per rush, and the entire team averaging over 5. Ouch, my brain… But they covered anyway, thank goodness.

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WINNER) The Jets stomped the Buccaneers and their defense had a whole lot to do with it. Weird, who would have thought?

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ Tennessee Titans (Loss) Here’s another road dog I wish I had back – what can a guy do? The Rams defense didn’t come out with much of a plan to stop Chris Johnson – maybe it’s impossible? I wish I would have seen the light before my wallet saw the toilet in this game.

Washington Redskins (pk) @ Oakland Raiders (WINNER) The redskins beat up on the Raiders because Washington is actually a very talented team and playing pretty damn well. Look at their last 5 games and you will see, they’ve had some tough luck and they very well could be 5-0 in those games.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (WINNER) How about them Cowboys? Actually, neither team played very well in this one, and I’m surprised the Cowboys didn’t pull it out. Still, the Chargers secondary is much improved, and they got the best of the Boys here.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ New York Giants (WINNER) What a game, just about as exciting as they get if you like touchdowns, big plays, and elite athleticism. DeSean Jackson’s speed is magic, I’ll tell you that. Philadelphia looked in control throughout, despite fending off a good fight from New York.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (Loss) The Cardinals let a stinker, stepped in poop with bare feet, swallowed a pack of gum, whatever you want to call it, and the 49ers fed the ball to Frank Gore for a huge victory. I wish the NFC West didn’t exist, I’d have a much better record!

Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick: The Philadelphia Eagles have proven they can’t be trusted, and while the Falcons are definitely seeing some tough times with injuries to key players, their back-ups have shown they can win in a tough spot – but can a guy really go with the Falcons to win at home against a healthy Eagles team that needs all the wins they can get? A team that has struggled to win against low-level opponents? A team that has should have realized by now that they can’t come in without focus? Against a defense that can’t stop the run or pass? Keep reading…

The answer is no, despite seeing the Eagles go on the road where they have already lost to the Oakland Raiders and struggled against the Washington Redskins (twice), and barely beat a bad Chicago Bears team – I can’t see the Eagles struggling here. Atlanta doesn’t bring enough pressure to seriously disrupt Donovan McNabb, the Eagles should also find room to run, and defensively the Eagles are just far superior to the Falcons.

You add in the injuries, the two key players that helped turn this team around last year, both unlikely to play this Sunday, and I have to stick with my first impression of this game, the Eagles have to win this, they should win it, and they should do so in rather convincing fashion.Three isn’t enough for me to take Atlanta – to be happy about taking the Falcons, I’d need more than a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Week 13 Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Week 13 Pick: I think the bettors are falsely in love with the Buccaneers, because as of now, the public percentage rests with the Buccos. The line keeps moving in the other direction however, and when I’m taking a spread that has that kind of backward crazy round about movement, I find comfort in being on the side I’m on here. The public likes Tampa, the smart bets seem to like Carolina, and thus the line moves opposite the masses.

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What the bettors see in Tampa Bay is pretty simple, and I have to respect it at lest a little. They see a team that has won against the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, all of which were quarterbacked by their prized rookie, Josh Freeman. The kid has shown he can make all the throws, and while he hasn’t been deadly accurate, he’s shown an ability to make more plus plays than minus – that’s something Jake Delhomme hasn’t been able to do for the Panthers.

But maybe now that Delhomme is likely to miss Sunday’s game, or at the very lest, likely to be less than 100% as a thrower, the Panthers will do what they should have been doing every single game this season, throwing less than 20 times while running more than 40. Against the Buccos, I have to like that percentage, especially with the running backs and offensive line push-power the Panthers have shown. With Delhomme out, I actually like Carolina more. There’s only a couple situations like that in the league (see Oakland, Detroit, and Buffalo).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6)

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints Free Pick

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New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5) Free Pick: The way the Saints have played this year, whether it’s beating up on good teams or fighting back to win games they should have lost, or just never giving up despite everything going wrong – I don’t see how I can’t pick them as a mere 2.5-point favorite at home. They undefeated part doesn’t win me over, but all the intangibles have me interested.

The Saints should be as healthy as they’ve been in weeks, as3 key contributors (Sedrick Ellis, Jabari Greer, and Reggie Bush – in that order, too) plan on playing and are probable for this Monday Night’s game after missing last week’s domination of the Buccos. Those first two should make a huge impact as they’ll be desperately needed if they’re going to eek out another win and stay undefeated.

I have no bad things to say about the Patriots. They are the best coached team in the NFL, you can see that by all the little things they do right, and how they continue to do what they do while losing key players during the off-season and to injury. They really do everything well, and probably have two of the best players ever in Tom Brady and Randy Moss. They have only lost 3 games on the year, and they easily could have won all three if the ball bounced the other way on a single play. They are probably 3 plays away from being undefeated just like the Saints and Colts.

But, the Pats 3 losses have all come on the road, and despite their very talented run defense, I think the Saints can run on the Patriots with the fear of Drew Brees fresh in the minds of the Pats’ coordinators. This one is going to be very close, but if the Saints early season games are any indication of how they’ll rise to this challenge, I think the smart money has to be on them.

Enjoy one hell of a Monday Night Football Game!

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview

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Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview: I wouldn’t bet this game. There it is, my advice to you. If Big Ben is healthy enough to play, and he makes it through even most of this game, I think the Steelers pull it out – but an early week injury update of “probable” has moved to “questionable” and the Ravens really bring the heat and hit harder than any defense in the NFL. I am still sticking with the Steelers, as bruised and battered as they are, but I’m going to have to wear this one on the chin like an Iron Mike uppercut if Dennis Dixon takes all the snaps for Pittsburgh this week. You never know, but if Big Ben sits, I like my pick-em Steelers pick a lot less. But I would still be excited to see what one of the better running college quarterbacks I ever watched could do on an NFL stage.

This game is off the books in all but 3 sportsbooks that I pay attention to, and for the same reasons I warn you to stay off this game. But Pittsburgh has beaten the Ravens in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and 3 in a row including a play-off game last season. Pittsburgh has lost 2 straight, and three straight just seems unlikely. The Ravens have lost three straight, and haven’t looked very good offensively since their 30-7 win over Denver 4 weeks ago.

So far, the Ravens have only beaten the mediocre to low-level NFL teams (aside from the Broncos). They have wins over Cleveland (twice), Kansas City, and San Diego (back earlier in the year when SD was struggling). They’ve lost to Cincinnati (twice), Indianapolis, Minnesota, and New England. They’ve played tough in all those games, and special teams has hurt them. But there’s a chance special teams hurts them again, especially against a stout defense that doesn’t allow many touchdowns. I’ll take the Steel city, but I’m worried if Ben doesn’t get the start. Intrigued, but worried.

Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick: Alright, the Titans have been money since the staff got their heads all cleared up and removed Kerry Collins from the starting quarterback position. Since then, normal Vince Young things have fallen into place – the Titans have just won football games, and luckily for their backers, they have just covered them as well. That’s 4 straight wins and 4 covers in a row for the Titans.

And Vince hasn’t just been a runner, he’s been an accurate passer and kept defenses honest on all four occasions. Vince has completed over 65% of his passes, thrown 3 touchdowns and had only 1 interception since he became the starter. Vince’s presence has also opened up things for Chris Johnson. The fastest back in the NFL has been explosive all year, but since Vince has taken over, CJ has rushed for over 130 yards in all four games. He has over 640 yards in those 4 games, and has scored 6 rushing touchdowns in those games. That’s big time.

But I think the Titans flounder here. I think Kurt Warner and those Cardinals receivers end up doing a little too much against the Titans secondary. I also think Beanie Wells gets enough yardage on the ground to do some damage and keep the Titans more honest than they’ll want to be. Arizona will probably hold Chris Johnson to fewer yards than he’s had in any of the Titans recent wins. Arizona is 5-0 on the road this season, and they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games – they are just as hot and prepared to win this one as the Cardinals are. The Titans are also coming off a short week.