Fantasy Focus: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

Okay, so I’m a little butt-hurt after losing the crown to a non-family member last week, but then I started thinking, friends, good ones, they’re like family anyway – and as much as I believe that, and know that it’s true, it didn’t make me feel one ounce of better. Josh won last week, inching me here, sneaking past me there, and just finishing ahead of me in numerous areas. I don’t like the feeling and I don’t like losing to friends, it’s almost worst than losing to people I don’t know – shoot, it’s 10x worse than losing to people I don’t know.

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Anyway, this week should see the title return to the rightful owner of pure fantasy genius. It’s an all RB Elite starts this week, I couldn’t pass it up with so many great match-ups. Consequently, there are 5 RBs there and not one of them is Adrian Peterson against Detroit. I justify that by saying that Detroit allows a lot more passing TDs than rushing scores, that the Vikings like to rest Peterson when up big against bad teams, and AP has just 2 100+ yard rushing games this year. But why do I feel like that’s going to come back to haunt me? Oh well. Here’s this week’s fantasy focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Ray Rice– I never thought I’d put Ray Rice as my number guy, but he’s been great.
2. Chris Johnson – I think this game will be closer than people predict, but CJ will kill.
3. Michael Turner – Atlanta’s back to doing what they do best, and Turner is solid.
4. DeAngelo Williams – The Falcons can’t stop him, but John Fox will try.
5. Thomas Jones– “@ Jacksonville” – that’s all I needed to see.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I think he has a big week in Pittsburgh, despite struggling last time.
2. Percy Harvin – I love they dynamic rookie going up against the TD giving Lions.
3. Pierre Thomas – Somebody has to carry 20+ times against the Rams, I pick PT.
4. Devin Hester – I don’t see the Bears running very successfully in San Fran.
5. Sidney Rice –He basically went undrafted, but he’s been too good to be a sleeper.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Reggie Bush – Face it, he’s down to sleeper status, but I think he’s worth a start.
2. Beanie Wells – Call it a feeling, but Beanie might have his best game as a pro.
3. Steve Breaston –Ta-tas likes to hurt the Hawks, even with Boldin in he’s worthy.
4. Mark Sanchez– He’ll be solid, and his running ability will accrue some points.
5. Ricky Williams – Ricky has been good this year, maybe he shouldn’t be considered a sleeper, but either way, he’s worth a flex spot against the Bucs defense.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– I might start him, but I won’t like it. I don’t see Addai running much.
2. Wes Welker– The Colts often do a good job on Wes ~ 7 catches for 40 yards I expect.
3. Matt Forte – You never know, but I think, and that’s good enough for me to sit him.
4. Mike Sims-Walker– I think D. Revis continues his work on big receivers.
5. Julius Jones– A nice game last week, but nothing for him in Arizona.

***One very small Bye for Week 10: don’t play Giants or Texans, they’re throwing a two team party in Vegas! Mind this little Gap!!!

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Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

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Week 1 Fantasy Football News: Ten for Tuesday

Here we are, breaking down Week 1’s action and how it’s going to effect you moving forward. Here are 10 things that caught my attention in this weekend’s entertaining action…

The Giants did alright throwing the ball sans Mr. Burress. But things aren’t quite how I thought they’d be coming out of Week 1. Dominik Hixon caught one pass while Hakeem Nicks looks to be out after injuring his foot early in the contest. There goes my #2 and #3 options going into Week 1, or so I figure. Who does that leave? Well, Steve Smith got plenty of targets, but he’s probably taken. Mario Manningham however, well, he looked explosive to me. He’s worth a shot going forward. Young, fast, athletic, no sure fire starters keeping him off the field, promising first round pick out a couple weeks? Yes please…..   Richard Seymour was a beast on Monday Night Football action in a Raiders uniform. Many think that was a dumb trade by the Raiders, sending out a first round pick for Seymour, but this guy is a difference maker. He’s going to give the Raiders huge plays, make their run defense better, and keep their secondary from having to cover receivers any longer than 5 seconds. He takes pressure off of everyone. Now that might not mean much to you, because the Raiders aren’t getting many defensive starts this season, however, with Jerrod Mayo going down for the Patriot, and Seymour getting traded, I think the Patriots are becoming more and more vulnerable defensively. They got a first round pick in 2011, but what about winning a championship this season? What about the Patriots as a fantasy DST? I’m looking for better options…..   Two of the biggest off-season movers, Terrell Owens and Jay Cutler, both had pretty forgettable opening day’s for their new squads. TO dropped a pass (weird) and had his team fall in last minute fashion to the Patriots while Jay Cutler did Jay Cutler things, managing 4 interceptions to his single touchdown pass – a nice one to Devin Hester. I would buy low if you have the chance, but if you own these guys, hold tight, both have better days to come. Trent Edwards looked solid, and there’s a good chance Jay’s receivers will get on his page soon enough….   After Week 1, Adrian Peterson leads all running backs in fantasy land – that isn’t crazy, what is crazy is that Tim Hightower, Thomas Jones, Julius Jones, Fred Jackson, and Willis McGahee finish off the Top 6. Of those four, I’m not sure if Fred Jackson, or McGahee have a chance to keep it up, considering their future situations sharing time in the backfield, but both could be decent spot starters – Fred because he’s only done good things when given the chance, and McGahee because he’s seemingly getting goal line action. And my spidey senses tell me that Tim Hightower won’t be racking up double digit catches game in and game out, but I’ve said for a while, he’s a steal and he’ll be a solid contributor. Thomas and Julius, the brothers’ Jones, have a chance to keep racking up big time fantasy points. Every week Julius will get more comfortable with Seattle’s new blocking scheme, and Thomas will get his chances behind that very solid Jets offensive line….    Jake Delhomme pulled off the amazing this Sunday against Philadelphia, he managed to get double digit fantasy points… In the negative. Yes, Jake turned the ball over enough times to get him in -11 in one of my leagues. Now, most leagues he probably got closer to -8, but still, brutal. Jake took a seat in the second half, and Steve Smith owners can only hope that Jake’s last two performances (accounting for 9 interceptions and just 1 TD) are back to back outliers. I’m thinking they are, and these two should get back to decent totals next week against the Falcons. But maybe that’s because I’m a Smith owner…..  Drew Brees has one of the quickest releases in football. His accuracy is amazing, and his eye for the game, the way he plays defenses like puppets, is almost poetic. But dirty and tough and footbally. For a guy that has absolutely no physical advantage, the whole thing truly is amazing. The way Drew can escape pressure for a second, turn his body, reset his feet, and release the ball with pin-point accuracy is amazing. Never known as a speedy guy, I’m not sure there’s another guy that is quicker resetting and throwing than Brees. Those that reached out and grabbed Drew early, I’m sure you’re happy with your Week 1 win…..  Laurence Maroney tallied more carries than any other Patriot RB despite being 4th on the depth chart. He didn’t kill it though, averaging just over 3 yards per carry on 10 attempts. Fred Taylor had 9 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Kevin Faulk carried the ball once or twice. Sammy Morris didn’t get an attempt. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Maroney is the upside play, and worth a roster spot most likely, but I’m not sure having any Pat running back is a dreamy situation…..   Donovan McNabb broke a rib on Sunday when a defensive player kneed him in the back about 2 seconds after he got into the end-zone. Personally, I think he’ll play, but we’ll see. I still think the Eagles will be productive in his absence, but Jeff Garcia’s signing makes me think that those of you holding on to Mike Vick really need to find a new person to fill that roster spot. I’m not a Vick hater, quite the contrary, I think the guy deserves a second chance and definitely hope he gets his career back on track. However, if the Eagles have Kevin Kolb, and in a week will get Vick back, why would they go get Garcia? I know, because they don’t think Vick will be able to run this team from the QB position, even if McNabb goes down for a considerable period of time. Let Vick go non-dynasty-leaguers, let him go…..   Byron Leftwich, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez really impressed me this week, but only one of those guys really surprised me. Flacco is quite good, a much better thrower than many people think, and I think he puts up solid numbers this season, but I thought that all along. Sanchez has very mature feet, especially for a young kid with 1 year of college starting experience, and he’ll keep the Jets in winning situations, but I thought that all along. Byron Leftwich is tough as hell, stares into the face of defenses, and will step up to complete a ball in the face of the rush, and while I knew that, I didn’t think he’d throw the ball as well as he did against the Cowboys. He’s always been a winner, but I think Byron can be a fantasy contributor this season. Why? Well, that offensive line is very good, the running backs are equally as talented, and very deep – and a group of pass catchers that include Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow, Michael Clayton, and Sammie Stroughter is good enough when teams have to pay so much attention to the run. Byron is rosterable….    Ten of the Top 16 pre-ranked fantasy receivers (ESPN) managed single digit fantasy points, that means guys like Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, Steve Smith, Roddy White, Terrell Owens and more didn’t help fantasy owners in Week 1. This is why picking receivers high isn’t the best move in fantasy land. Receivers are a fickle and inconsistent bunch. I still like these guys, but on any given week the best receivers will get you next to nothing – where even mediocre running backs will keep you in the game. Until next week!

Wing Man!: Not Every Superhero needs a Sidekick

History supports what I’m saying here, not always can the dynamic of two super personalities, amazing talents, wonderfully crafted names and/or awkwardly revealing spandex outfits, fit together like Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson, or even a more well-known duo, Batman and Robin (and even the last two heroes might find it tougher together nowadays)… In fact, if you look at the big picture, it becomes more and more evident that not every Super-Hero needs a Sidekick. In fact, most of the big name stars produce more box office fantasy potential all by themselves in their own little uniforms (As you can easily recognize that even Batman does his best movies sans his puffy feathered bird of a sidekick).

There are a few guys I’m looking at this year where a certain sidekick is digging into the main man’s cover-value, and even a couple more stars that are getting matched up with other stars – two superheroes do not always make a friendly team: Wolverine, Punisher, Spiderman, Captain America.  You have to remember, when a team gets better, a fantasy player doesn’t always improve.

Scrappy Doo basically crushed a very good cartoon of young crime fighters. Scooby was doing a fine job begging for Scooby Snacks, being a scaredy dog, and being his pot-head friend’s best bud. All Scrappy did was come in and steal some of the spotlight, and since everyone loves a puppy, soon he was getting too much attention. Suddenly, the drop off happened and Scooby and his friends have never quite recovered.

And what about Jimmy Olsen, Superman’s pal, one of the only guys to know Supe’s identity – well, all he did was get his buddy into trouble at every turn. Did Superman ever need Jimmy? I think not.

Wolverine vs. Punisher? Spiderman fighting Captain America? It’s amazing that a couple guys looking for the same thing (in both instances) could get into such a fiasco with each other – but it happens.

These things happen in the “fantasy world” and they also happen in fantasy football. This season there are some sidekicks ready to help the team all the while stomping out some fantasy fire of their own teammates. And while most of these guys play for wins and losses instead of statistical superiority – the truth of the matter is… You and I don’t. Not in fantasy football anyway. So which gridiron heroes will have their value cut down to size by the Scrappy Doo’s, Jimmy Olsen’s, Wondergirl’s and Aqualad’s of the National Football League? Follow along closely…

Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen

This seems like the easiest one around. Matt Cassel found a new home with a new offensive genius taking over in Kansas City. But what about Thigpen? What about the guy that dominated down the stretch? What about Tyler Thigpen? If you look back at last season’s stats, you will see two new teammates ranked 2nd and 3rd amongst quarterbacks during last season’s second half. That’s right, you guessed it, Tyler Thigpen is number 2 and Matt Cassell was number 3. That Top 5 list looks like this… Drew Brees, Thigpen, Cassel, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. So, while many people probably don’t even know who Tyler Thigpen is, as he was really only a super hero fantasy star to those that picked him up for a late run into the post season (yes, that was me in more than a couple instances), he was still a star. Thigpen was 3 points shy of Drew Brees during those 10 weeks, and Brees had a brilliant season. But Cassel has the job, and surely Thigpen will suffer most in this match up of free agent pick ups turned fantasy playoff super heroes of 2008 turned teammates of 2009. This season will mark the first time in history that this situation will ever have taken place. Two young quarterbacks with huge statistical seasons meet up on the same team the very next year. But it is what it is, and Matt Cassel will be crushing the fantasy relevance of his teammate, and higher rated fantasy performer of last year’s second half. The team has gotten better, but Thigpen has lost his way.

Jay Culter and Matt Forte

Both players became fantasy stars in 2008. Matt Forte did so in his rookie season for a Bears team that used him as their main weapon, finishing a win away from the playoffs. Forte was as consistent as fantasy stars get, putting up solid numbers week after week as the Bears gave him the ball early and often. Jay Cutler was Mike Shanahan’s little buddy, a coach in uniform, the son he always wanted. Jay got the green light to throw any ball he wanted any time, and while that made Cutler one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football, it also ended Splinter’s long run as the head coach in Denver. That led to Josh McDaniels getting the reigns for the Broncos, which led to Cutler having a fit when McD wanted his former QB, which led to bagels being just another way to get cream cheese to your face, which led to Jay Cutler getting traded for 2 first round picks, a couple more picks, and a 6 pack of Chicago’s best brew. That dysfunctional set of circumstantial dominoes led to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, two rising fantasy stars, to meet up in Chicago’s backfield. Well goodness me. But whose value is effected more? Well, I would imagine that both players have a slight hit in value, but both could see their efficiency ratings moving on up. Crazy how fantasy and actual football can be so different. Matt Forte is likely to see less 8 man fronts (if any), while Cutler is likely to see more open secondaries with defenses actually paying attention to the run game in his offense. But, Forte will get less carries, less catches, and likely less touchdowns in 2009. Jay Cutler will almost surely have less yardage, fewer touchdown passes, while continuing to throw interceptions this season with the Bears. But Forte will get more yards per carry while Cutler’s QB rating will likely rise. They may make a nice duo, two young guys with their entire comic book careers in front of them, but this year both will suffer in the fantsy realm, losing the numbers from their days as single stars.

Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White

After years of lacking a #1 receiver, the Falcons finally came through with the coming of age of Roddy White. And after years of stumbling around losing seasons without another true offensive threat, Tony Gonzalez was traded to a city of bright fantasy youngsters making a name for themselves in the NFC South. But who will be the star in this receiving situation? The young up and comer or the old school TE that can stake his claim as one of the best ever? Only I have the answer you’re looking for. Both should fail to match last year’s top notch numbers. Say what you want about Dwayne Bowe’s rise to stardom or Matt Ryan being better than the Chiefs’ no-name quarterback last season, but neither piece of information will convince me that Tony G is in a better fantasy situation than he was last season. Last year, Bowe was still just the 2nd fiddle in KC’s passing game, with the attention of opposing defenses collapsing around Tony. And he may be relatively unknown, but I already showed you that Tyler Thigpen was no joke going down the stretch, so stop belittling the guy. Plus, KC threw the ball a lot last year, which is how Tony got so much fantasy love. Likewise, Roddy White was the only real threat in the passing game last season, but the Falcons ran so dang much that defenses had to bite on the play action. Matt Ryan locked onto his number one guy, and reasonably so, White was a yardage gaining machine for the Falcons. Now both top flight receivers will see differences in 2009. Tony Gonzalez will find himself in an offense that runs the ball as much as they throw which should cut down on his chances to get anywhere close to last season’s targets. Not only that but Roddy White is one of the best young receivers in the league, one that 2nd year QB Matt Ryan made a living throwing to in 2008 – so a repeat of last year’s totals should be close to impossible. And for Roddy, you know the Falcons are still going to run a ton, and a great tight end is a quarterback’s best friend, and his notoriety as a receiving threat should have defenses paying more attention to him this season – so his targets will likely fall as well. The Falcons offense should be great, even better than last season’s surprising numbers, but these two super-heroes won’t win as often in fantasy circles.

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene

This is definitely a case similar to Scrappy Doo’s fuse lighting to the dynamite under Scooby’s career. Thomas Jones had his best season as a pro. If anyone gained value from Brett’s arm last season it was Jones. Thomas finished 5th amongst running backs in non-ppr leagues, making him one of the best fantasy values of 2008. But in comes the younger cuter puppy hero drafted by the Jets. (Actually, Shonn Greene is a beast of a kid and as far as looks go Thomas may have the girls gushing after his bulging biceps, but you get the picture). Still, already Shonn is getting rave reviews in Jets camp, and with a new coach in town there’s no real loyalty to last season’s production. If Coach Ryan learned anything from his time in Baltimore it was that the best player plays no matter if he’s getting paid like Willis McGahee or Le’Ron McClain. That might be just the ignition Greene needs to up-end the 31 year old Thomas Jones’ career. This could definitely be a case of the sidekick back-up unproven option stealing too much of the star’s light, and slowly eating into that profile he worked so hard to build. Drop Thomas in your rankings, yes, but don’t completely ignore the guy. I’ve seen him falling way too far in Fantasy Drafts, and there’s a good chance he’s still a productive piece of the Jets rushing attack.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White

Last season it was Chris Johnson eating into White’s numbers, but this season the roles may be reversed. I’ve noticed Chris Johnson getting lots of fantasy love on draft days. But LenDale is now a much slimmer and still powerful version of himself. Everyone expected Chris Johnson to continue his growing percentage of carries from last season. After starting pretty equal, he was definitely the horse the Titans tried to ride down the stretch. But this season could be a lot more even than people are ready to believe. LenDale has always had a knack for the end-zone with very athletic feet for a big powerful back. Coming into camp in the best shape of his life, running faster than ever, and apparently buying into everything more than ever before makes him a sneaky thief to Johnson’s carries. When you add the often forgotten fact that LenDale is smack dab in the midst of a contract season, he has even more to play for, a future contract and a starting gig (if the Titans don’t want to pay the man his money). So before you draft Chris Johnson with all his speed and excitement and all that man-love you have for him – remember, there’s a big bad touchdown thieving guy from USC that not only has something to prove, but money to earn in 2009. Chris should still be a nice player in 2009, he’s a great young back, but expecting even more impressive numbers in 2009 might disappoint you this season.

10 for Tuesday

Okay, I just wanted to point some things out… 

1. It’s not always good for your X-Rays to be negative: That’s right – for example, Daunte Culpepper and JaMarcus Russell were two guys that should have been praying for their X-Rays to come back positive and bussed to the IR. Both of those guys are on teams that make life even more dangerous for them than normal NFL players. Some others that weren’t so lucky and might play again this year, Kellen Winslow, Jerome Harrison, and Steven Jackson has likely been hoping for weeks that one of his multiple ailments would find him a safe warm spot on the IR – no luck SteJack – but you do get the Seagulls later this week. Good luck!

2. The Seahawks receivers have started to get healthier, but only because the baton has been passed to the running backs in Denver. Tatum Bell – yes, that Tatum Bell – will be the starting and basically only running back this coming week when the Broncos do work against the Carolina Panthers in Carolina. It should be interesting, but then again, who in their right mind thought Peyton Hillis would be the guy rushing for 100 yards in Denver? Remember, he started at FB and LB earlier this season. Now that’s a man. 

3. The Cardinals clinched the NFC East – by default. Yep. 

4. I lost a fantasy playoff game this week by 6 points. Tony Romo started for me and threw 3 interceptions. My opponent had Pittsburgh’s defense. Thanks for all the memories Tony. 

5. Brett Favre had 137 passing yards against the 49ers, and that sucked – however, it was the Jets playcalling that really got me down. As Thomas Jones rushed for a 17 yard touchdown in the 3rd quarter, I began to think the Man-Idiot had figured it out. “We win if Thomas gets the rock.” I sweat it makes perfect sense. But at the end of the day, a team with two capable running backs (TJ and Leon Washington) decided to run the ball 12 times. 10 carries to TJ, 1 to Leon, and 1 to Brett – good idea. How’d that work out Man-Idiot? How do these guys keep jobs?

6. Shaun Hill had 285 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jets – but how was that possible? I know – the 49ers ran the ball 33 times – and the Jets had to commit to stopping that. Take a damn not Mangina… 

7. Tim Hightower had 12 carries for 32 yards and a score. The answer to the Cards running back questions? I’m thinking no, not this season anyway. He was touted as the next great rookie after just breaking 100 yards against the Rams last time the Cards spanked St. Louis – but how have his numbers looked since then? Told you. 

8. Losing isn’t always a bad thing. Take the Hawks for example, that 21-13 lead they had going into the 4th quarter was a fat lie. Sure, the teams want to win, but fans – you should be rooting for them to compete until the end and then blow it. Do you want Michael Crabtree or do you want the Raiders to sign him? For Crab, and for the Hawks – the answer is “lose the rest of your games please!” – I feel for any guy that goes to Jail in Oakland. 

9. I said last week that you shouldn’t pay much attention to Joseph Addai going up against a bad run defense that doesn’t tackle well. I hope you listened – 10 rushes for 26 yards. If you started him anyway, please tell me how the outcome of your first fantasy playoff game went. 

10. The Ravens remind me a lot of the Steelers in Big Ben’s first season. They might not be 13-3, hell, they might not even make the playoffs – but this is a good defense and a young quarterback and a running game that might not be flashy, but gets the job done. I just think they might have a tough time if they do get into the playoffs. We’ll see.

theRUNDOWN: Week 13

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play for hopes of a better options – This is my lucky Week 13 extravaganza! Enjoy!

QB: Tony Romo vs. Seattle: I think the Hawks secondary is pretty soft, and I’m willing to bet that Tony throws the ball a lot. The Defensive front in Seattle is solid against the run, (well they were before Clinton Portis gashed them) so Dallas will be attacking through the air. Even dump downs to Marion Barber should be good for Tony. I like this pick a lot.

RB: Chris Johnson vs. Detroit: I know this rookie burner has fizzled out a little bit lately, but after LenDale White’s comments after last Sunday’s game, I don’t expect Chris to get anything less than almost every single carry again. Chris should be back on top of the running back lists this week against Detroit.

RB: Steve Slaton vs. Jacksonville: Steve should dominate the Jaguars pathetic run defense – now get this guy the ball in the air attack you play calling Texan donkeys!

FLEX: Thomas Jones vs. Denver: If he gets the ball 25 times, I’m willing to suggest 150 yards and at least 2 touchdowns. The Broncos are bad. The Raiders think the Broncos suck.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Cleveland: Reggie hasn’t been too impressive this season, therefor I’ll be attaching my fantasy hopes to his back this week. He’s too good to not blow up – ala TO last week.

WR: Brandon Marshall vs. New York Jets: I know this seems like a tough match-up, especially when Marshall hasn’t been in the end zone in what seems like forever – but the Broncos are nothing if not surprising, and thus I’ll go with Brandon this week.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. Atlanta: Antonio is bound for a good week in a game where the Chargers will have to score lots of points if they want to win.

K: Rod Bironas vs. Detroit: If the Titans kick 4 field goals then they basically auto-win this game. I think Rod will have 3-4 chances, and he’s basically a guarantee.

D: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati: The Ravens look to make lots of big plays against the Bengals – I look to benefit.

PAPA’S Week 12 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: I like this kid. And he’ll be here until otherwise posted.

Kyle Orton: He’ll need to do some good things for the Bears against the Vikings – they’ll need to throw the rock against that defense – Kyle is good, so I think he’ll have a nice day doing so.

Warrick Dunn: I know the Saints have had a better run defense this season, but Dunn is still a nice start for the last week of the regular fantasy season.

Ronnie Brown: He’s been anything but a good starter for most of the season, but I’m willing to put my name on the line saying he’ll be better this week.

Kevin Walter: I know Sage likes to throw to his buddy Kevin, and I know Jacksonville’s secondary is sieved like. Add those things together and Kevin is a nice start this week.

Domenick Hixon: What can I say? I like this kid and think he has a shot to do some good things against the Redskins secondary.

Devin Hester: He didn’t have a great game against the Vikings last time out, but I think Devin will do good things against the Vikings this time around.

Zach Miller: He’s still a Raider, but JaMarcus Russell completed just one pass to a WR last week, and that shows you where his comfort zone is. It starts in the middle with this big sure-handed cat.

Miami Dolphins: They play the Rams. The Rams are a turnover machine. The Rams really stink. I’ll take the Dolphins to dominate defensively.

Papa’S Week 13 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Kerry Collins: He may look like a good spot start this week against the Lions – I just don’t buy it. The Titans will be running the ball, and Kerry will go back to the beginning of the season numbers where he had 3 TDs and 3 picks in the first 7 or 8 games. If he doesn’t have to throw, the Titans won’t make him do it.

Timothy Hightower: If you haven’t learned to keep this guy out of your starting lineup – then you never will.

Clinton Portis: I’m going out on a limb here, but I don’t think the Giants will allow Clinton to do anything on the ground – they are too smart to allow that.

Lee Evans: I have a feeling that Nate Clements plays pissed off after getting big brothered by TO all day Sunday – that is bad news for Lee Evans owners.

Five for Friday

I know my uncle does the good starts bad starts “theRUNDOWN” action, but this week I have some solid plays that you might be steering clear of. Just remember, just because there’s a tough match-up doesn’t mean you should ignore your good players – it also means that you might be starting a lesser option (ie Thomas Jones) over a better player (ie Michael Turner) to get the best chance of big points. Here’s my Top 5 “interesting” starts of the week. 

Matt Schaub is going up against the 6th ranked pass defense, but that doesn’t mean you should start him. In fact, I’d start him over Brett Favre and a bunch of quarterbacks ranked higher than Matty. Schaub should do work against the Bengals, and I don’t expect him to slow down at all this week. Andre Johnson plays like a big brother beasting opposing corner backs, and I see that trend continuing against the youngsters manning the corner in Cincinnati. 

Jeff Garcia is playing at Dallas. Dallas is in shambles and while I wouldn’t shoot for Garcia many weeks, I think his numbers against the Cowboys should be solid. I think Dallas will play better against the run, but Garcia and the Bucs should find plenty of room in Dallas’s secondary. Garcia makes plays with his feet, and that should be on display this week in Dallas. 

Michael Turner plays a top rated run defense when the Eagles host the Falcons this week, and most people are resting Turner thinking he’ll get shut down like he has recently against very good run defenses. Not to fast on labeling the Eagles stout against the run, though. See, Philly gave up about 150 to Portis and 101 to Gore (in limited rushes) in back to back weeks. Turner runs hard, and Philly’s front line is undersized. Maybe this isn’t such a bad match-up after all. 

I see some things out there saying, “Don’t start Cotchery against the Chiefs” and I can’t seem to figure it out. Sure, the Jets will probably run twice as much as they pass, but Brett takes chances, it’s just part of his game. It doesn’t look like Coles will be playing this week, and Cotchery is the better receiver anyway. All things aside, I’d bet Cotchery gets about 7 balls for 80+ yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. Those are start him numbers to me. 

Nate Washington against the Giants. Santonio Holmes might be suspended, and Nate is a good bet to get 5 or 6 looks even if he doesn’t start. Mewelde Moore and the Steeler running game won’t be great this week and that means Big Ben will have to pass. I like Washington’s size and Ben’s confidence going to him in and near the red zone. I think he’s a solid start this week, where most people aren’t even thinking about getting him close to roster spot, let alone a starting lineup. Swim against the flow!

One For Wednesday

If you think Thomas Jones’ recent yardage outputs are ridiculous and not an indication of the rest of his season, think again. The muscle man is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and his schedule over the rest of the season is generous. This week he plays the Kansas City Chiefs. Joke. He also plays (over the last 10 weeks) the Rams, the Patriots, the Broncos, the 49ers, and the Seahawks. Having their NFC games against the West is definitely beneficial for Thomas. What else? Well, the man has gotten at least 19 touches in all but one game this season. The Jets do their best to establish him on the ground. WIth only 3 touchdowns so far, he hasn’t become a great goal line threat, but he is still a ncie match-up against mediocre defenses. With good match-ups down the line, he’ll be a nice guy to keep around.

Ten for Tuesday

Here goes something…

  1. I killed it on my top picks of the week, also known as the picks I put my face on. That’s right, I lost just one game on the week. I was 6-1 with my college picks and an undefeated 3-0 in the NFL. I’m up in both football formats and hopefully winning you guys some money. Lots of games, lots of picks, lots of wins thus far. I’ll keep ’em coming!
  2. I’m so sick of “random stats” that I’ve started hitting the “recall” button on my controller, busting back to the last channel my girlfriend was watching, ever single time ESPN starts to read off some bullshit stat about how B.J. Upton is the only player with a last name starting with the letter U to hit multiple homeruns in a playoff game – or never in a Monday Night Football game has there been two punt return touchdowns, a blocked field goal for a touchdown, and three idiot announcers reading some complete idiot stat guys newest concoction on the same damn night. That’s right, so instead of just enjoying a good game I get all flustrated and end up watching some spew about how Paris Hilton is trying to find a new BFF – whatever the hell that means. So, now I’m pissed, watching terrible TV, and possibly missing Reggie Bush take back kick number three, but at least I don’t have to listed to Mike Torico babble on about some random stat that makes me want to break my TV – I only have to deal with that dumb blond rich bitch that has some crazy need to project her image in front of millions of MTV watchers. Ugh. Needless to say, I’m just pissed. Who would have though? Me, hating ESPN.
  3. Is now the time to go get Thomas Jones? I’ve been looking at some remaining schedules, and with the Jets showing everyone in the league they can toss the ball around, more focus will go into guarding against Brett’s wild arm and Coles and Cotchery along the outside. But, the Jets have shown they want to run the ball given an open look. I think Thomas Jones finishes the year as a Top 10 back, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a Top 5 guy from here on out. He sits at a pretty reasonable value I reckon.
  4. I was watching LeSean McCoy this weekend – he’s legit. Him and Beanie Wells, both should come out and do work in the big league. There are so many good backs in the game right now, I don’t know where they would fit, but if the Seahawks don’t try to grab a big play receiver or a big play running back in the first couple rounds of next years’ draft, they’re brass is just plain stupid.
  5. I don’t write one, and proabably never will, but I figure this is as good a place as any to throw out my biggest stud pickups of last week. There were a few moves that made many an owner feel brilliant for pulling out a win, and my Top guys at the big 3 positions are… Kyle Orton, DeAngelo Williams, and Bernard Berrian. That’s right, these three guys were all additions in my fantasy leagues this week. Williams was dropped earlier in the week, Orton hadn’t been owned all year, and Berrien was dropped after not impressing and being a question mark for this weeks action. I picked up Berrian and started him over Chris Henry. I won by 10. Yhatzee. Kyle Orton was a huge part of my uncle’s win this week, and my best buddy picked up DeAngelo later in the week, and started him because he was hurting with Steven Jackson and McFadden on his bench. Three big pick-ups, and people say drafting is where you win this game. HA!
  6. Mike Walker: All the talent that most of the receivers in Jacksonville don’t have. He’s really fast and seems to attack the ball. If he keeps getting chances he might be a nice player for David Garrard. I’ve always liked Reggie Williams, and Matt Jones has shown an ability to make big plays, but Walker has that NFL speed that they don’t, and that could really help this Jaguar team.
  7. Just in, Ronnie Brown is really freaking good. Any time you take a running back in the Top 10 in an NFL draft I think it’s a mistake, but Brown can really do it all. And he’s a lefty. It’s nuts. He reads really well, runs with great patience, can throw the ball, is really fast, and he’s got great size. Those that believed Ricky Williams was going to hold of Ronnie all year long, how does that look now? That said, I still think Ricky should be owned in fantasy circles. He’s not only a great back-up guy in case of injury, but he produces right now. He had a down week, sure, but I think he’ll bust the century mark a couple times and be worth keeping around.
  8. Michael Turner can only run against bad defenses, so he’ll really struggle against the Packers. I can’t tell you how many times I read that in fantasy articles this weekend, it’s like “they” all got together and pow-wowed there way to hating Mike Turner. Time to check out the league’s stats fellas, this guy put up 127 against the Pack and still holds the top spot on the rushing yardage pile. The Packers aren’t great against the run right now, they are down both DTs from last years’ defense and the Pack running game is struggling so the defense is on the field longer. But still, just because Turner had down games against some better defenses doesn’t mean he can only run against garbage. This kid is legit, and the more Matt Ryan learns and matures, the more Turner will burn defenses.
  9. I wonder how Plax feels about the Giants having their best offensive game of the year with him out? This is why you don’t throw 8 mill a year at receivers. I think they can change an offensive outlook, help #2 and #3 receivers out because they are getting so much attention, but I also don’t think a receiver makes or breaks an offense. Anquan Boldin is one of my favorite receivers in the game, he’s even better than he gets credit for, but look, the Cardinals did the Bills good this week, and Boldin was out. Steve Breaston, Early Doucett, these guys are manageable, and if you can put a lot of your money elsewhere, I think your team is better paying lower salaries to the receiver position. Hixon is legit and Steve Smith is solid and even Amani Toomer (as old as he is) can beat defenses regularly. All this being said, Plax is a beast and he’s going to help the Giants a lot this year. I’m just saying, maybe receiver isn’t the position you need to deal out the bucks to….
  10. I really like Buster Davis for the Chargers. He doesn’t get many balls, and he isn’t fantasy relevant yet. In fact, even though I’m loving his game, I’m leaving him on the waiver wire. I’m just saying, the guy looks good when the ball is thrown his way, and I now see why the Chargers drafted the kid. He’s fast and aggressive. Here’s to hoping the guy gets more looks, I think he can be a really good player in this league.

Three for Thursday

I’ve got three more tidbits for you valued readers… Who else would give you this kind of love?

Chris Perry… Ravens – Ravens… Chris Perry: Poor guy. Chris Perry gets his first start in the NFL after being injured for what has seemed like his entire pro existence, and who does he get to try and stay healthy against? Oh, just the Baltimore Ravens. Hopefully he can catch the ball, because running it didn’t really pan out for opposing offenses last season. How many yards per rush do you think the Ravens gave up last year? 4? 3? Nope, try 2.8. Yes sir, 2.8 whole freaking yards. That’s the lowest in the league. Many would think that the Vikings were the best run defense last season because of all the hype that goes with their monstrous defensive line, and they did allow the least amount of total rushing yards, but no matter how hard opposing offenses tried, the Ravens wouldn’t budge. They were the only defense to keep opposing rushers under 3 yards per carry in ’07. I’m guessing Perry doesn’t look like a million bucks his first time out. You have to go back to 2000 to find a defense that bettered the Ravens in ’07, and what do you know, that was the Ravens. 

Shaven, no Bush: Reggie hasn’t had a stellar start to his young career, but the Bucs really seem to cut him down to size. In two contests against the Bucs in ’07, Reggie rushed 23 times for 81 yards, 9 catches for 56 yards, zero touchdowns and 4 fumbles. In ’06, during his rookie year, Reggie had 20 carries for 18 yards, 15 grabs for 85 yards, and no scores. In one game he had 11 carries for -5 yards with a long of 3. I like Reggie. I think he’ll be a good player in this league, and he’ll figure out how to hit a hole during his third season. But, he won’t do it on opening day – don’t put all your eggs in this Bush.

Racking up the Yards: I know I talked about McFadden, Selvin Young, Thomas Jones, and the Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown duo headed into this weekend’s games – but I found some more stuff that I just had to share. Only 3 teams gave up more rushing yards than the Jets. Only two teams gave up more rushing yards than the Broncos. Only one team gave up more on the ground than Oakland. And nobody allowed more rushing yards than the Dolphins. Lucky for you fan of the ground game, the Dolphins take on the Jets while the Raiders host the Broncos on Monday Night. This is what I call a tournament. The seedings would look like this… 4 @ 1 and 3 @ 2. I hope the winner gets to go to the Super Bowl – but that probably won’t happen. It’s a good week to own this group of fantasy backs. 

Get back here at the end of the work week to read Five for Friday

Fantasy Fun: Ten for Tuesday

I’ve decided to throw out some fantasy advice, free of charge. Every single week I’m going to put some good stuff out for you to mull over in your fantasy minds. The articles will be entitled, “Ten for Tuesday” “One for Wednesday” “Three for Thursday” and “Five for Friday”. Each article will dive into as many fantasy observations as the title insists – 10 on tuesday, 1 on wednesday, and so in and so forth. The observations could, can, and will be anything that crosses my mind as important information. My goal is to sift through the irrelative fantasy junk and give you a few important tidbits prior to Sunday’s roster deadlines – 19 tidbits in fact. Since it is Tuesday, I’m on the books for 10 – good luck.

1. Sitting AP in Week 1: Adrian Peterson goes up against a pretty tough Green Bay Packers defense, and while that won’t be reason to sit him (as you certainly drafted him with your first round pick), the fact that his starting pro-bowl offensive tackle is out with a 4-game suspension might give you a couple second thoughts if you have a couple running backs with better match-ups as your 3rd options (Thomas Jones against the Dolphins, Mike Turner against the Lions for example) you might want to take that shot. I know that most of you won’t, and I’m going to have a hard time doing it in the league I have AP in, but it’s something to consider. Remember there is no player too good for a bad week – and it’s not looking sunny for AP in Green Bay.

2. Running Men in Miami: It’s going to be a run fest in Miami this weekend when Brett Favre and the Jets come to the beach. A lot of people think Brett is going to bring instant passing totals to Jet games, but considering that both the Dolphins and Jets have terrible run-defenses, I can’t see either quarterback putting up much more than 200 yards through the air. Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Ricky Williams, and Ronnie Brown will all get their chances to shine, and 300+ yards rushing between the four of them won’t surprise me.

3. Welcome to the Barber Shop: Marion Barber is going to beast defenses all season long, and I don’t think he’ll waste time – he’s starting in Week 1. Sure, the Browns added Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams, but I still think Barber will rush for over 100 yards with a couple scores in Cleveland. We’ll see right away how much those huge off-season purchases do – will they change the entire defense? I doubt it, this unit in Cleveland is still sub-par.

4. Mr. Warner’s Neighborhood: It’s official, Kurt Warner has busted Matt Leinart’s bubble by plucking the starting job right out from under him. We heard all along that Warner and Leinart were on even playing ground, but nobody believed it until Kurt was named the starter. Now he goes up against a 49ers defense that he torched for 484 yards last time out. I’m not thinking he’s going for 484 again, but over 300 yards is very likely – so feel free to start him over guys you picked in the first 8 rounds of the draft – it’s not time to pretend you have a better starting option than the former MVP.

5. Earnest goes to New Orleans: Earnest went a lot of places in the 80s and 90s, but I never saw him throwing beads around the streets in New Orleans – this is a new Earnest and you can bet on him doing work against the Saints. I’m sure New Orleans will be better against the run this season, but they still won’t be good. Graham has a nice offensive line and while he’s gone under the radar a bit in the pre-season, he’s still a great option this week.

6. In Orton I Trust: Kyle Orton will outscore half of these quarterbacks in Week 1 – ready, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Derrick Anderson, Trent Edwards, Jeff Garcia, and Drew Brees. He’ll have a good game against a Colts secondary that is beginning to look very suspect. Think I’m crazy? You just wait and see.

7. 100% of the time, almost Every Time: If LaDainian Tomlinson doesn’t score a touchdown in Week 1 of the regular season it will be just the second time in his career. That’s right, this scoring machine has visited the end-zone on opening day every single year but once. Can you say consistency? You bet. He has had ups and downs in yardage during week 1, but a running back (or any position) that scores is a guy you want to start. Craziness…

8. 4 INTS for Brady?: Last time Tom Brady played the Chiefs he tossed 4 interceptions in a 16-26 loss. That’s half as many picks as he threw all of last year. That was 2005, sure, but it certainly wasn’t vintage Brady. This week a banged up and likely to be rusty Tom goes up against the Chiefs for the first time since they bruised his ego with all those picks. Will he toss the same number in touchdowns? I’m not sold. Expect a few blunders from the million dollar man – but he’ll figure it out late and pull the Pats out with a win. Just don’t expect that huge vintage 2007 Brady performance.

9. Poor Man’s Reggie Bush?: Don’t buy that crappy scouting tip – Chris Johnson is a smart man’s Reggie Bush. This is why, the Titans didn’t have to spend 50 million bucks or a #2 overall pick on Chris, and he’s going to be better than Reggie. He’s faster and less afriad of contact. He hits the hole with a mission and can catch the ball too. Oh, and he’s faster. His game speed is just as fast as the 4.2 track speed insists. His pro career starts this week against a good Jaguars defense, but he’ll make someone look silly – just don’t miss out, you’ll surely miss a highlight.

10. Selvin Young VS Darren McFadden: Lets put it this way, the yards battle will go to Selvin while the fantasy point title will end in McFadden’s favor. Those that were expecting McFadden to stumble in his rookie campaign can either jump on his bandwagon or be exposed later in the season – he can really run. The Broncos still don’t have an apt defensive line, and that doesn’t bode well for them. What is nice is the fact that Oakland doesn’t have a run-defense either, and this battle of first year starting backs should be fun to watch. Young is a sophomore, but with the starter’s keys in his hands it will be fun to see what he does with them. I like both these guys as starting options in Week 1 with McFadden getting the nod because of his knack for finding the end-zone.