Tag Archives: Free playoff picks

Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

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As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

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This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals VS New Orleans Saints: NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs

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How can the Cardinals play as well as they did last weekend? Kurt Warner almost had more completions than he did attempts, and that’s actually impossible. The Saints defense is tougher than it gets credit for, and though they will be missing their starting defensive end, as Grant’s out for the season, they will be as healthy as they’ve been in the secondary in a long time. That will play a big role in this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Because, if I know anything, I know Captain Kurt will be winging that pigskin around.

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The Saints lost their last 5 games against the spread and actually lost their final three games straight up. They were 8-8 ATS this season, just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, which means, yes, they were 6-0 ATS to start the season. Aside from their first loss of the season, in Dallas in Week 15, the Saints dominated playoff teams, beating the Eagles 48-22, the Jets 24-10, and the Patriots 38-17. The question is, which Saints team will show up? The team that dominated both sides of the ball during the first 13 games of the season or the team that held on for dear life in the last 3 games, two of which they were actually trying to win?

The Cardinals rarely put two solid games together all season long. They won a few big games against big time opponents (okay, they only playoff team they beat during the regular season was Minnesota) but most of their good wins were either surrounded by losses or followed by them. I expect the Saints to play their best football of the last 6 weeks, and I suspect that will be enough to beat a Cardinals team that won’t be on fire like they were last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick

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Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick: This is my favorite upset of the week, and it has been from the get go. However, looking at it now, it looks as though I’m not the only one picking the Packers to dismantle the Cardinals in Arizona this Sunday. 63% of the public betting on the spread like the Packers to cover, and those are the late numbers. Early percentages were so high that the books responded, moving this spread all the way to even in most sports books as I write this. I see experts taking the Packers at a 2 to 1 clip, and even ESPN’s Suomi likes Green Bay.

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If Anquan Boldin were playing, the Cardinals would have one advantage in this football game, but with him out, the only thing the Cardinals have over the Packers is experience. Arizona made it all the way to the big show last season, playing just one home game, and falling just a few seconds short of taking home the title. But I don’t see that same Cardinals team this season. Arizona has been very inconsistent all season long, and there’s something about the Packers final half of the season that has me admiring their team.

The Packers lost just one game over the final half of the season, as a touchdown pass by Ben Roethlisberger as time expired in Pittsburgh gave the Steelers a 37-36 win. But outside of that, the packers have dominated. During those 8 games, the Packers handled 3 playoff teams, winning by a combined 77-28. Green Bay’s offense has impressed me all year, but it’s their growth in that 3-4 defense that gives them the nod here. Great corners against a less than full strength Cardinals receiving corps, and pass rushers galore -yeah, I like the packers.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals