Fantasy Focus: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

Okay, so I’m a little butt-hurt after losing the crown to a non-family member last week, but then I started thinking, friends, good ones, they’re like family anyway – and as much as I believe that, and know that it’s true, it didn’t make me feel one ounce of better. Josh won last week, inching me here, sneaking past me there, and just finishing ahead of me in numerous areas. I don’t like the feeling and I don’t like losing to friends, it’s almost worst than losing to people I don’t know – shoot, it’s 10x worse than losing to people I don’t know.

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Anyway, this week should see the title return to the rightful owner of pure fantasy genius. It’s an all RB Elite starts this week, I couldn’t pass it up with so many great match-ups. Consequently, there are 5 RBs there and not one of them is Adrian Peterson against Detroit. I justify that by saying that Detroit allows a lot more passing TDs than rushing scores, that the Vikings like to rest Peterson when up big against bad teams, and AP has just 2 100+ yard rushing games this year. But why do I feel like that’s going to come back to haunt me? Oh well. Here’s this week’s fantasy focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Ray Rice– I never thought I’d put Ray Rice as my number guy, but he’s been great.
2. Chris Johnson – I think this game will be closer than people predict, but CJ will kill.
3. Michael Turner – Atlanta’s back to doing what they do best, and Turner is solid.
4. DeAngelo Williams – The Falcons can’t stop him, but John Fox will try.
5. Thomas Jones– “@ Jacksonville” – that’s all I needed to see.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I think he has a big week in Pittsburgh, despite struggling last time.
2. Percy Harvin – I love they dynamic rookie going up against the TD giving Lions.
3. Pierre Thomas – Somebody has to carry 20+ times against the Rams, I pick PT.
4. Devin Hester – I don’t see the Bears running very successfully in San Fran.
5. Sidney Rice –He basically went undrafted, but he’s been too good to be a sleeper.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Reggie Bush – Face it, he’s down to sleeper status, but I think he’s worth a start.
2. Beanie Wells – Call it a feeling, but Beanie might have his best game as a pro.
3. Steve Breaston –Ta-tas likes to hurt the Hawks, even with Boldin in he’s worthy.
4. Mark Sanchez– He’ll be solid, and his running ability will accrue some points.
5. Ricky Williams – Ricky has been good this year, maybe he shouldn’t be considered a sleeper, but either way, he’s worth a flex spot against the Bucs defense.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– I might start him, but I won’t like it. I don’t see Addai running much.
2. Wes Welker– The Colts often do a good job on Wes ~ 7 catches for 40 yards I expect.
3. Matt Forte – You never know, but I think, and that’s good enough for me to sit him.
4. Mike Sims-Walker– I think D. Revis continues his work on big receivers.
5. Julius Jones– A nice game last week, but nothing for him in Arizona.

***One very small Bye for Week 10: don’t play Giants or Texans, they’re throwing a two team party in Vegas! Mind this little Gap!!!

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Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

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Fantasy Football News: Ten for Tuesday

This is where Lucky Lester breaks down NFL news (usually from the week that was and usually 10 newsworthy happenings) and how it effects fantasy football owners going forward. Let the games begin… Now! We can’t wait until Thursday!

Matt Cassel was back at practice on Monday, going through all the drills and looking relatively healthy in doing so. If you’re starting the youngster, who is pitching pigskin for an offense that scored just two touchdowns this pre-season, on a team that is going up against the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore – then you have more to worry about than Cassel’s kneesies…   LenDale White not only feels no regret from his terrible towel stomping escapades of yesteryear, he’d do it again, and he expects to. Luckily, we don’t have to wait too long for this to play out, as opening night sees Pittsburgh come to Tennessee for what promises to be a big one. On the matter of big and LenDale White, most would enter a fat joke here – but the young TD machine lost 20 pounds this off-season, and looks to have lost some of that baby fat that was holding his break-away speed back. He has looked better than Chris Johnson this pre-season – but that’s just the pre-season…   Speaking of the Titans, Kenny Britt might be a guy to stash away for this week’s game. He’s not owned in most leagues, but the kid is a beast, no doubt about that, and I’m pretty sure he’s starting. If he shows well against the Steelers, I don’t think he’ll go back to the back-up role, and at the very least you could have nice trade bait. If it doesn’t work out this Thursday, just drop him and pick up that other 16th guy on your roster instead…    This past weekend Tila Tequila (nice name for a tramp) called in a citizen’s arrest on Shawne Merriman for “choking her and holding her against her will”. Sounds bad, but the more I read the more I think this thing will blow-over, regardless of what actually happened. Now I’m almost always on the side of the accuser in these cases, usually to a fault, but this girl is a full blown gong show, and every poor ace-hole that accidentally ran across her stupid show, when they pushed the channel up button too fast, knows it. I’m not saying Shawne’s guilty or innocent, but he is guilty of dating one of the crazier funny-looking fake chicks in the universe. Miss Tequila had more than a couple Tequila shots prior to the incident and Merriman claims to have been “just keeping a friend safe…” All that being said, I would hate to be the Raiders’ offense this weekend. Shawne’s one bad-bad football man, and having charges brought against him by a crazy reality TV star probably won’t cool him off for Sunday’s action. I wouldn’t even want to practice against the guy this week… I’ve always been a huge fan of Sammie Stroughter since his early years at Oregon State. The former Beaver has gone through some tough times, and emerged as a stronger guy because of it. After getting picked late on day 2 of they ’09 NFl Draft, Stroughter has been strong in Bucs’ Camp, and has been recently named the #3 receiver in Tampa. Now I don’t think Tampa will throw much more than 45% of their offensive snaps, but for those deep dynasty league owners, this kid is legit…   Matthew Stafford was named the starting quarterback, but I wouldn’t be stunned at all if Culpepper got the job back a few games into the season. Stafford has a strong arm, no doubt, and his touch isn’t bad, but I watch him play and I don’t think he’s ready. I’ll admit that he has a bright future, but after a couple weeks of struggling, and a couple weeks for Culpepper to be completely healthy, I think the job goes back to the ex-Viking…   That being said, Brandon Petitgrew was also named the starter for the Lions, and he’ll be a solid option regardless of who stays at QB. BP came in with Stafford this year, and I’m sure their relationship is strong because of it. Pep loves throwing to TEs, and you know defenses will be most focused on Calvin Johnson and then Kevin Smith. As a 3rd option for a team that expects to be playing from behind, I like Petitgrew’s upside…   Tim Hightower was named the starting RB in Arizona, and I don’t think that’s just a one-week gig. Many people will say that the Cardinals didn’t waste a 1st rounder on a RB to see him be a back-up, but that’s actually happened a lot. It’s not so long ago that the Cardinals were high on Hightower, and the guy put in work this off-season and looks faster and smarter with his cuts this pre-season. Beanie Wells will get touches, but he didn’t get drafted to take the starting job, he got drafted because he was the most talented player left on the board. No promises were given…. Eric Mangini is up to his old wiley ex-Patriot tricks again, not naming a starter to the public. Who cares, first of all – you shouldn’t. If you do, it must be because you are a Browns fan, or stuck with one of these guys as a back-up, and in that case you had to see some pre-season action, look at the way the team has reacted, the way the ball was moved with one guy or another, it’s pretty damn clear to me that Quinn is the guy in Cleveland….   Pierre Thomas didn’t practice Monday, and that means those that got Reggie Bush late have a very talented starting running back, that was amongst the league leaders before going down with an injury last season, going up against the vaunted Lions defense in Week 1. It has baffled me all summer/fall to see Bush going so late, especially in PPR leagues. Is he a chance? Sure, but a chance well worth taking. It seems his hype became too much to handle and the guy turned into fantasy owner poison. Put that on pizza and beer and your bound to cause a mass epidemic aimed toward fat guys 10x as deadly as swine flu.

Football this Thursday! See you next Tuesday!!

Free Fantasy Football Picks: Papas Predictions

My Nephew has me back giving some fantasy advice, he was nice enough to pay me nothing to work for another year, what a guy. But hey, I have fun doing it right? Shit, I only have to wear two pairs of glasses to see the damn screen, make 100 errors while hunting and pecking my way into oblivion, all the while trying not to listen to this voice in my head that keeps telling me to pick Barry Sanders in my upcoming draft – (I still do that with my last pick, what can I say, I’m hopeful for a comeback). So these are my predictions, I hope that’s not too quick of a transition for you, if it is just deal with it I guess. I’m old, but I’ve probably been playing fantasy football since you were an idea that your parents couldn’t even fathom – you know, when they still wore condoms and took birth control. So, I’ve been around for a while, won lots of fantasy championships, and learned from my mistakes as well. What has that taught me? That these predictions are more likely to be true than my nephews. That’s what. Why? Because I’ve only been wrong once, and that was when I thought I was wrong and was actually right. Here goes…

1. Matt Hasselbeck will be a Top 7 quarterback in 2009.

2. Either Chester Taylor or Jerious Norwood will be a Top 20 fantasy back this season. Choose wisely.

3. Matt Schaub will not play more than 12 games, but that’s okay, he’ll still throw 20 touchdowns.

4. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will be a Top 5 fantasy defense.

5. Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback.

6. Donovan McNabb will be Top 5.

7. Who will round out my QB top 7? Drew Brees and Philip Rivers and Tony Romo will be in there too. That leaves one spot left over, gotta have a flier in there somewhere – but I’m not going to predict that, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

8. The highest paid QB in the NFL finishes out of the Top 20 in fantasy QB rankings.

9. Even though I’ve had poops bigger than Darren Sproles and Leon Washington, both will finish amongst the Top 30 running backs in PPR leagues.

10. Thomas Jones won’t, Jamal Lewis won’t, Jonathan Stewart won’t either.

11. Knowshon Moreno will have at least five 100-yard games this season.

12. That will be more than Marion Barber.

13. This year’s DeAngelo Williams (surprise, out of nowhere back that is seemingly left for dead because of a high draft pick or “new” back taking his place? That would be Joseph Addai. He won’t be the #1 fantasy back like Williams was last year, but he’s getting drafted around 20 in most of my leagues, he’ll be a Top 10 guy.

14. Marshawn Lynch will be a Top 10 guy from Week 4 until Week 16 – do those week’s matter to anybody?

15. Not much of a stunner, but Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing yards, by a lot.

16. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson. Why? Ready… He’s going to have more fantasy points. But I like both guys.

17. Kevin Smith will be a top 10 fantasy running back.

18. Randy Moss will score more fantasy points that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will catch more passes than anybody in the NFL.

20. Chad Johnson will show everybody that last year was a fluke, and that he’s still very inconsistent, but will be a Top 10 WR in the fantasy world.

21. If Terrell Owens is healthy for all 16 games, he will be a Top 5 fantasy receiver. I will guarantee he’s a top 10 guy regardless.

22. Anthony Gonzalez will have more fantasy points than Roy Williams.

23. Lance Moore will have at least 70 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. That might not be last years’ totals, but that’s still pretty damn good considering where you draft the guy.

24. John Carlson will be a Top 6 Tight End.

25. Joseph Addai > Darren McFadden > Pierre Thomas… That would be opposite of their draft rankings.

26. Felix Jones scores more fantasy points than Ray Rice.

27. Donnie Avery scores more fantasy points than Donald Driver.

28. The highest scoring rookie receiver this season? Hakeem Nicks.

29. Brandon Jacobs will score more fantasy points, in non PPR leagues, than any other RB in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson. He’s number one, or maybe number two….

30. In the games that Reggie Bush plays in (I’m guessing 12-14) he’ll be a Top 10 PPR RB. So he has GREAT draft value right now. *Currently ranked 31 by Espin the Magazine.

Done and Done. It only took my a million hunts and pecks to find the right keys to right this damn thing, and if you count my hourly wage, I’m going to have to win the lottery to get out of the red… blast. But at least I’ll get to rub it in when these are all right.

Dynasty/Keeper Rankings TOP 112: 2009 Fantasy Football

Its quite unlike me to do a fantasy football rankings article toward the end of March, close enough to the draft that I should be focussed solely on the new cats entering the league, but unable to really include them because of the reality that their new uniforms have yet to be selected, and thus their bright future yet to be predicted. But this is going to be different.

There have been a number of emails asking me to do a fantasy article ranking players in a Dynasty League format. Dynasty leagues are those in which you keep all of the players that you draft, therefor taking ages, contracts, and their long term future more into account than in your yearly re-draft leagues or even leagues with a small number of keepers (1-3). Re-drafts in a dynasty format are often just rookie/free agent drafts and the veteren players only change teams if moved by their respective owner, either to the waiver wire or through a trade. This format has become more and more popular as it gives fantasy owners the feeling of team ownership, building from the ground up, often choosing to decide between winning now or building for later. It also gives losing teams something to look forward to, or the ability to trade crafty veterans for youth moving forward. It’s a whole new fantasy world, no doubt about it. You’re looking for solid production for at least 3 seasons – that allows you to continue to build through drafts and win now.

In many dynasty leagues that are starting this season, there will be a veteran draft in a snake format followed by a rookie draft in the opposite snake format. 1-12 and back for one, then 12-1 and back for the next. It evens out the board a bit, giving the teams drafting late a chance to make up for their lack of Top-5 power and take a blue-chip rookie going forward. But we’ll talk about rookies in the next few months, and closer to the start of the 2009 season.

I am ranking these players based on a format that starts this lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D. That format gives wide receivers a little added value based on the fact that you start 3 of them compared to just 2 RBs. Also, the point system is a PPR (point per reception) format, which many leagues have moved to. That also gives WRs a little added bonus, the same goes for pass catching running backs. QBs get 6 points for touchdowns just like everyone else, and other than that, the scoring is very normal. Under this scoring format last season, the top 4 point scoring options were Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Kurt Warner – in that order. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were the only non-quarterbacks in the Top 8, and DeAngelo Williams finished with 6 more points than Matt Forte to take the running back title. That doesn’t mean QBs hold more value than RBs, same with WRs, but it does put points into perspective a little bit.

I won’t be ranking D’s or K’s because I don’t care enough to do it. Also there’s some clutter in the middle a bit, that I argued with myself about a lot, but that’s the order I went with and I’ll own it. Throw in a comment (or email my uncle -papaweimer50@hotmail.com, i pretty much run his old pathetic life anyway – haha) and let me know what you think.  Can’t fit them all in 112 spots…

Without further jib-jab and point scoring hog-wash, these are my 2009 dynasty fantasy rankings pre-draft. This is, more or less, how I think they’ll rate out over the next three seasons combined.


  1. Maurice Jones-Drew (absolute stud, and will get more carries and touches this season, just like Josh said, this guy’s point per touch numbers are absurd)
  2. Adrian Peterson (most people’s number one, should have his best year next season)
  3. Matt Forte (lots of touches for Matt, especially through the air, great feet for a big guy)
  4. Chris Johnson (Some people thought he was too small, the Titans didn’t, they win)
  5. Michael Turner (Justifiably some say he’s #1, his age and full load drop him a few spots in my Dynasty rankings)
  6. Steven Jackson (still very young and very talented – not much help in St. Louis, but the talent is there)
  7. Larry Fitzgerald (this guy is basically unstoppable)
  8. DeAngelo Williams (I’ve always liked his running style, and despite the great back-up behind him, he still ranks high)
  9. Andre Johnson (the only other non RB in my Top 10, AJ big brother’s DBs all year long)
  10. Marion Barber (he’s not going to get picked this high in drafts, but a return to prominence for MBIII is almost a guarantee)
  11. Calvin Johnson (if he were on a better team, this guy would be fighting Fitz, still his per touch numbers are awesome and he’s only getting better as that terrible Lions team improves – if Cutler goes there, watch out)
  12. Frank Gore (always one of my favorites, the center point of a run first offense, talent high, but injuries keep him out of the Top 10)
  13. Greg Jennings (young, strong, great young QB, the more touches he gets the better)
  14. Steve Slaton (some people see Slaton as a 3rd Down back, too small, but he’ll always be better than Fragile Reggie)
  15. Brandon Jacobs (Jacobs runs too hard to stay injury free, despite being the size of a D-end, but while he’s in he’s good for 100 yards and a TD – plus he’s young)
  16. Reggie Bush (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be lower, still in a PPR league he’s a solid play 20th RB last season missing 6+ games – + meaning he missed most of a couple other games)
  17. Roddy White (Roddy deserves more credit – he’s a stud – a go to guy for a great young QB on an improving team)
  18. Anquan Boldin (a couple donkeys say Boldin isn’t a #1, haha, I hope he goes somewhere else and proves everyone wrong)
  19. Steve Smith (His age – and physicality – drops him a bit, but he’s that close to Roddy and ‘Quan – and as fun to watch as anyone in the league – look how good he makes Delhomme look sometimes)
  20. Phillip Rivers (So what if he throws marshmallows, his team is turning pass happy, plays in a terrible division, and is just 27 years old – he’ll toss 40 TDs one of these years – and we’re the exact same age, to the day – it’s fate! ha)
  21. Marques Colston (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be higher)
  22. Kevin Smith (He won’t go this high, I promise, but invest now and you’ll reap the benefits of this talented back later)
  23. Brandon Marshall (If it weren’t for his ability to “find himself in bad situations” – hide and seek champ – he’d rank higher)
  24. Clinton Portis (Clinton will be 28 in September, going on 32 – I love the guy’s fight, but that drops the talented back into the 20s)
  25. Drew Brees (This guy plays tricks on defenses – the only problem is that I don’t know how much longer that idiot running this team will have a head coaching job, and another guy would surely run a more conservative and smarter offense)
  26. Ryan Grant (He may have struggled a bit last season, but he’s young and this offense will get better and rely on him more heavily next season)
  27. Joseph Addai (I can’t quite give up on Addai yet, but he’s never really impressed me as a runner. He’s thrown up some solid stat lines, but aside from pure numbers he doesn’t impress me as much as he does others)
  28. Peyton Manning (Elder Manning is 33, but still has a handful of good years left in him – but he’ll be 36 in 3 years, and you never know how age, and a new coach, will change a guy)
  29. Ronnie Brown (Ronnie will go under the radar in drafts, and this might even be a little low for one of the best all around backs in the league)
  30. Tony Romo (I might take Romo over Manning, but I wonder the impact of losing TO and how it will effect Tony, still a top flight QB though, and young)
  31. Tom Brady (Nobody does it like Tom – but his knee still has questions, and this team can’t be young forever)
  32. Reggie Wayne (he’s actually getting up there in age a bit, 31 or so, he’ll have a couple real good years, then start to die off, which is why he falls a bit now)
  33. Dwayne Bowe (Dwayne Bowe, watch Anquan Boldin films, that’s going to be you in a year or two – Bowe could break into the Top 10 this year)
  34. Aaron Rodgers (Explosive young arm with a great receiving corps and an improving offense – only his second year – could be great)
  35. Darren McFadden (I don’t care what people say, this is probably too low – still, I can’t put a Raider higher than Bo Jackson’s old number – Bo knows Al Davis is a team killing psycho path!)
  36. Eddie Royal (this looks like a reach now, but he’s like Wes Welker with elite speed and great maneuverability)
  37. Matt Ryan (this may be a reach, but I’m ranking for the next 3 years, and I’d love to have Matty Ice when he matures)
  38. Randy Moss (Randy’s old, but still basically unguardable with Tom Brady hucking footballs – only a couple real good years left though which drops him a bit)
  39. Marshawn Lynch (Obviously keep an eye on his situation, the kid will be suspended, and has been a question mark since draft day – on the football field he’s a great RB option)
  40. Braylon Edwards (very good player when he’s on, yet quite drop-happy and not as physical as his body – should be much better than he was last season, and still very young – doesn’t have great speed though)
  41. Derrick Ward (Could be an interesting time share in Tampa, but they brought Ward in to be the guy, and though he’s never been a beacon of health, he’s a very physical runner with good vision, and this O-line is underrated – he’s a young 29 though)
  42. Jonathan Stewart (Might seem ridiculous, but I’d rather have JS than Westbrook or LT, and this guy’s a backup)
  43. Brian Westbrook (This is where age shows it’s ugly face a bit, Westy might be a Top 5 guy this coming season but he’ll be 30 during this year and has always had health issues – still a great player though, just don’t overbid in Dynasty Leagues)
  44. LaDainian Tomlinson (I think LT has at least one really good season left in him, remember Michael Turner just had an unreal season while LT really struggled – and by the way, they were only 7 fantasy point apart – LT still has it, for at least another year)
  45. Vincent Jackson (Now’s the time, before Phillip uses Jackson as his number one for a full season)
  46. Jason Witten (I don’t think much of TEs, but Witten is the #1 in Dallas, don’t be confused by Jerry telling you it’s Roy Williams – oh, and Witten is a flat out stud)
  47. TJ Houshmanzadeh (it’s unbelievable how solid his numbers were last year despite being forked in one of the worst offenses in football – he’s perfect for the Seahawks and unless he’s cursed with injuries like all Hawks’ receivers, he should be solid – but he’s 32 this season – which drops him a bit)
  48. Carson Palmer (remember when he was in the Peyton, Tom, and Drew draft area? Well, he’ll get back there – this guy has all the tools – probably a good time to invest)
  49. Wes Welker (he might not be flashy, but he’s a PPR dynamo and very good at what he does, not PPR, not as good)
  50. Matt Cassel (risky? maybe – but I’ll risk it on a leader I really like on a team with talent to catch passes and a new offensive genius as his head coach – not as risky as it may sound as I agree with McDaniels, I’d rather have Cassel than Cutler)
  51. Jay Cutler (Jay might have been higher before he pouted his way out of Denver, I’m just not impressed with grown men acting like entitled little bitches, what can I say – still, he’s a great talent with a rocket arm)
  52. Willis McGahee (sometimes sportswriters take chances, I’m taking one on a guy I don’t like all that much, I’m saying Willis turns it around and finishes well above this ranking – still, the risk brings him down a bit)
  53. Matt Schaub (this is the season for Matt to lead his team to the playoffs and stay injury free, just that alone will put him in the Top 10 QBs)
  54. Antonio Gates (Gates is moving fast toward 30, and his hoops background is rearing it’s ugly head – for those of you in fantasy basketball, you know exactly what I mean – still, he’s a touchdown machine and Rivers knows it)
  55. Ben Roethlisberger (Big Ben will be better this season, he just needs to stay healthier, and improved line will help that)
  56. DeSean Jackson (I like him a lot, and think he’ll be a very good one in Philly, despite his tiny frame)
  57. Felix Jones (something tells me he’ll get used more this season, now might be a good time to get this speedy young runner)
  58. Santonio Holmes (interesting cat, but very, very good – should see more balls, but don’t overpay for Super Bowl glory)
  59. Donovan McNabb (Right above TO, planned that – McNabb will be an old 33 this season, and with no sure contract situation and last years’ struggles, I can’t guarantee anything form Donovan, except that he’s one of the best QBs in the league on a pretty damn good football team)
  60. Terrell Owens (A one year contract interests me always, but he’ll likely never get a longer one, still – one of the best WRs playing every single season for next year’s contract – I’ll take a chance on him, even in Buffalo – he’s older, no doubt, but in pretty good shape anyway)
  61. Lee Evans (Despite Edwards’ struggles, I still think he’ll be solid – add TO as a guy to take some pressure off Evans and I think Lee has a nice year – even if TO leaves next season, Evans will still be an elite talent)
  62. Eli Manning (I hate to do it, but I had to include Pouty-face in here somewhere, it’s personal, so he might be better than this)
  63. Santana Moss (In the 2nd season of Zorn’s system, this whole offense will move more efficiently, and Moss will benefit – turns 30 this year, but WRs should go worry free until 33 or so)
  64. Roy Williams (he’s young, has had a couple really good seasons, is the #1 in Dallas on a solid offensive team with a very good young quarterback – hell, this is too low – but there’s obviously some risk here, a guy with more ballsy would put him at 44)
  65. Antonio Bryant (I just can’t be sure about Bryant – what a great finish, scoring more points over the last 10 games than any receiver in football, that has to be worth something – he’s this far down because, well, he was out of football the year before last, can’t ignore that really)
  66. Bernard Berrian (steal on draft day I think – probably should rank him a little higher, I actually like Sage throwing him the ball)
  67. Anthony Gonzalez (something tells me that Anthony will see a lot of balls over the next 3 years, and very well could rate out higher than this)
  68. Donnie Avery (there’s no doubt in my mind that this kid will be the #1 in St. Louis next season, great upside there, but this team should struggle for a couple years at least – still, better to risk on upside)
  69. Chad Ocho-Cinco (you’ll be able to get him cheap, he’s getting older, he says one thing and does another and he changed his name to a fake spanish number – all that being said, he’s still #85 and gets his QB back this season)
  70. Jericho Cotchery (do I like Cotchery? you bet – do I like Kellen Clemmens? not a chance – but Cotchery is still a nice receiver and should average 80 grabs over the next 3 years, so this might be low for him – not great upside here though)
  71. Joe Flacco (Maybe he should go higher than this, his future is bright, that’s for sure. Still, Mason is aging and I’m not sure there’s another great offensive player on that roster)
  72. David Garrard (I still don’t see any receiving help for this poor guy, but his O-line should be way better this season – and despite what people think, he was pretty decent as a starting option last year – 12th overall)
  73. Rashard Mendenhall (he’ll go really late in drafts this year, what a time to get him, I still think he’s right there – talentwise – with anybody else from last year’s super talented class, this is too low, but he’s still risky)
  74. Domenik Hixon (he might not be a #1, and I doubt the Giants will let that happen, but I like this kid as a solid HR threat #2 and I expect him to play a nice roll in NY over the next couple years – I like him more than the other WRs on that roster)
  75. Matt Hasselbeck (how many years does Matty have left? his back might have a better answer than me – but he’ll be solid as long as he’s still around – the Hawks offense will be much improved this season)
  76. Deion Branch (good player, injury troubles have held him back, and he’s not a #1, but now he doesn’t have to be, and he’s still young enough to be good in the Hawks passing attack)
  77. Pierre Thomas (if I trusted Sean Payton, he’d be a heck of a lot higher – if he ever moves teams, he shoots way up the chart)
  78. Leon Washington (he’s talented enough to take a chance, but I don’t know if his coaches will give him the #1 job, and Thomas Jones was successful last season – still, this young offensive line is talented and getting better, and Washington has at least as much upside as Darren Sproles)
  79. Fred Jackson (Fred is a very good player that will probably get lots of time with Marshawn doing dumb things, a little risk could go along way with this kid)
  80. Thomas Jones (Yeah, I ranked his back-up ahead of him, so what – Jones is aging and while I still like him, he’s not really impressing the new staff with his hold-out threats)
  81. Tony Gonzalez (he may have a couple more years, but he’s in as good a shape as most 25 year olds, and even if he plays just 2 more he’ll rank out higher than most 3 year TEs)
  82. Dallas Clark (he’ll be one of Peyton’s top targets with Marvin gone, and he’s a pretty sure thing to be in the Top 5 over the next few years)
  83. Kellen Winslow (I like him better than Dallas Clark, but it’s very close, and Dallas has the QB advantage and health on his side, so Kellen moves behind him)
  84. Lance Moore (if I trusted Sean Payton, Lance wouldn’t be this high)
  85. Hines Ward (all he does is do the same good things year after year after year, consistently from game to game, and he’ll always be underrated – even though he’s 33 and plays a more physical football than most receivers, aging him faster perhaps, still, this is probably too low for a sure thing)
  86. Steve Breaston (he’ll be a #2 somewhere, if not in Arizona next season, then sometime soon down the line, he’s good enough to hold on to)
  87. Ted Ginn Jr. (could be a very good WR, he showed flashes last season, but there’s still enough question to keep him behind a lot of receivers)
  88. Chris Cooley (what a character – Cooley is a top notch receiver that should be even better in his 2nd season in this system)
  89. Sage Rosenfels (I think he’ll be good – that’s right, will probably draft him in more than a few leagues as my back-up – lots of risk here, but lots of upside too)
  90. John Carlson (His rookie year was a big success, he blocks well so he’ll always be on the field which makes him a solid red-zone touchdown target)
  91. Dustin Keller (probably a better receiver than Carlson, but not as physical and not as good of a QB, still this kid’s upside has a higher ceiling than JC’s)
  92. Trent Edwards (It’s tough to say, but I like Trent and think his sophomore slump will be exactly that – something you look back at and say, that was an aberration and this kid is going to be good – still, anybody in charge of Buff’s offense has risk)
  93. Chris Chambers (I wonder what happend last season – Chris played in every game and had just 33 grabs for 462 yards and 5 scores – I’m willing to bet he improves those numbers next season, he’s only 31 this season, but just incase, he’s not ranked high enough to get a bunch of crap for)
  94. Brady Quinn (here’s to hoping he goes to Denver and succeeds – still, I’ve never been sold on Brady)
  95. Mark Clayton (the former first round pick had a nice thing going with Flacco, his second 7 games were worth 31 fantasy points – his last 9 were good for 110)
  96. Torry Holt (we’ll see where he signs, he’s aging for sure, but I’m not ready to believe he’s done, he’s always open)
  97. Owen Daniels (not much not to like about this kid, except that he’s a TE – still, he’s very consistent which is rare for TEs not named Gonzo, Witten, Clark, and Gates)
  98. Donald Driver (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
  99. Derrick Mason (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
  100. Jason Campbell (probably shouldn’t be this low, but after the first 12-15 QBs, what can you do, i wouldn’t mind having him to be a back-up on my squad over the next few seasons)
  101. Michael Clayton (maybe this is nuts, but with Gruden gone I think Clayton’s not so “puckered up” as he was over the last few years, and the kid has enough talent to succeed)
  102. Josh Morgan (talented enough to do it, offensive passing attack a question in San Fran, still, I like this kid a lot)
  103. Kevin Walter (effective, but a white wide receiver nonetheless, sorry if I can’t believe)
  104. Miles Austin (I have to think he’ll get enough looks to be fantasy worthy, and his upside is greater than Patrick Crayton’s)
  105. James Jones (I’ve always liked him a ton, he fell behind a little bit last season, but he’ll be a nice #2 in this league some time over the next 3 seasons)
  106. Jeremy Shockey (gotta wonder about this werid-o, never been a fan, but if he stays healthy, and out of the dog house, he’s talented enough)
  107. Zach Miller (good young red zone target, if the Raiders ever get there he’ll be a solid option)
  108. Laurence Maroney (worth a pick late in dynasty leagues, I have always loved his talent but he can’t stay on the field and his HC isn’t a huge fan)
  109. Chad Pennington (he needed to go on the list, I just don’t think he has more than one season as a starter)
  110. JaMarcus Russell (you have to feel bad for a kid that gets stuck in Oakland – I believe JaMarcus!)
  111. Plaxico Burress (I think Plax was/is stupid – no doubt about that – however, mando-mins are the stupidest thing ever and should be abolished – he’s a super talented cat, but prison time is on the horizon which means his career could be shut down)
  112. Michael Vick (Yeah, he’s on the list, he’s an athletic freak and he did his time – get the hell over it – I’m a dog lover and after a guy spends time in jail for what he did, has to start his life and career over, I’m going to wish him the best)

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 5

I’ve got a couple dandy questions this week, I won’t mix words here – just go right to the nitty gritty – I love being old sometimes – because I can say stuff like “I love being old sometimes” and go absolutely no where with it, link it to nothing, and just go one with what ever it is that I’m doing. And you know what, you’ll be like, “What?” and then you’ll just concede that I’m old and that’s that. Also, being old allows me to say things like “I won’t mix words,” and then put a damn lexicon in a blender. Domino!

Steven Talking from Tulane says, “This is the first time I’ve ever written in, as you will probably recognize. I was just wondering, I’m in a PPR league and can start a receiver or a running back at the flex this week – who would you start amongst the following? Bernard Berrian, Steve Smith (NYG), Steve Slaton, or Clinton Portis?

Boy, nice team of Flexers. I think Steve Smith is a great sleeper play this week, but you have 3 other non-sleeper guys, so cross him off the list. Portis is the best player, no doubt, but he has a very tough match-up in Philly this week, and I don’t think he does great things against another great defense for the 2nd straight week. THat leaves Berrian and Slaton, and though Berrian has the makings of a good game against the Saints secondary, I think Slaton is your best bet. Indy doesn’t stop the run without Bob Sanders, and the Iowa missile is out for sure. Slaton catches a lot of balls out of the backfield and his speed should give Indy trouble. He’s in line for 20-25 rushes and targets combined, which should be two to three times as many as Berrien. Good luck this week – Slaton is your guy. And by the way, Steven Talking – that’s great stuff on the name, unless freakishly your name is actually Steven Talking, then just give your mom a high five and your dad a fake high five and then a quick flick to the testicular region. You can’t hit girls and dad’s the next best option.

Talifan asks, “I dont see much rong with starting Regge Bush this week agginst the Vikes even thou Sota has a good run D – am I stupid?”

Yes. But you’re right about Reggie Bush. Joking. I’ll just assume you were getting special treatment under the desk while writing in your question – to keep in clean I mean a *pedicure. Reggie has a tough match-up running the ball, sure, but I’d be surprised if he was used as anything except a change of pace anyway. Deuce will get the tough runs and Reggie will get about 10-12 receiving targets. He could do a lot with those looks against the Vikings secondary. Even as a change of pace back, Reggie could break one and end up with a chunk of rushing yards. Bush struggled last week, but he still looks ready for a solid season. Your name is also pretty clever – what they hell is this, smart nickname week on LuckyLester.com? Brilliant. Maybe i can have a cool nickname too –  Papa Ten-Inge Weimer? You know, because I have 10 cousins that are related to Brandon Inge… Yacko!

David says, “I need a pick up for the future and I can have either Deuce or Le’Ron McClain – you have any advice on this one?”

Tough call. I’ll tell you this, I’ve seen all backs in Baltimore run and the best pro runningback this year is Le’Ron McClain. That being said who knows what the coaches will think and right now Deuce is looking like the guy to get the rock in New Orleans – maybe check out who they play on that bye week of yours and go from there. If Baltimore has to play Tennessee or Minnesota, haha, then go for Deuce. That’s what I’m thinking. If it were me, and I was just picking up either player based on his rest of the season fantasy total, I would probably go with the sure thing of McAllister. Deuce may be older, and he might have three bad knees, but he’s still the best running back in New Orleans, and there’s a lot about the match-ups that an NFC South running back goes up against opposed to an AFC North running back. Plus, Willis McGahee still looks like “the guy” when he’s healthy. Boy McClain runs hard though, tough decision for sure, and either choice could come back to bite you in the butt – at least you are just picking up a bye week future guy though, not much to lose either way.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 4

Here I am, and I’m back early this week. Already on Monday I’ve gotten quite a few emails, and have three that I’d like to share. I’m old, grouchy because the Patriots (my Week 3 survivor) lost, and hungry (because there’s no damn food in the house). So hopefully my anger doesn’t travel through the keyboard. Well, ah, here goes nothing…

Jimmy Z from Portland writes in, “Papa, before the season started you predicted that, Marion Barber would be the best running back this season in fantasy land. So far you’re close, Barber sits at number 2 amongst running backs after Week 2. But there’s this other guy at #1, a little feller named Reggie Bush. How do you like Reggie going forward? Is it time to trade the former Trojan? I’m in a PPR league and he seems like a good bet to continue catching balls. What do you think?”

Jimmy, I think Reggie is going to have a great year, no doubt about it. In fact, in that same “Papa’s Predictions” article, I said “Reggie Bush – 10+ total touchdowns this season, his highest total of his career.”- but I didn’t think Reggie would ever be leading all running backs in fantasy points. Honestly, if you can get a guy like Marion Barber for Reggie, I say go for it. But right now, in a PPR league, the guys that selected Reggie Bush are patting themselves on the back, and you should be as well. After three games, Reggie has compiled 402 total yards and 4 touchdowns (2 receiving, 1 rushing, 1 special teams score), and while I don’t expect him to tally up 2,200 all purpose yards, it’s not out of the question. That’s right, a guy like Bush that can catch the ball and he gets carries out of the backfield, he has the chance to break 2000 yards from scrimmage for sure. Bush is going to have his best season, I thought that headed in, and while the pre-season brought his value down a little bit for me, I am sticking with my prediction of double digit touchdowns and now I think he’ll approach 2000 yards from scrimmage. In a PPR, I say hold onto him. Reggie is on pace to catch 125+ balls this season. I think he’ll catch about 100. That’s like 1000 extra rushing yards in that scoring format. Hold onto your good pick, Jimmy.

Bad Boy from Jersey thanks me for giving him the reassurance needed to take Marion Barber over LT, he says, “Papa, you are the man! Earlier this year, just before my draft, I wrote in asking you if it was okay to take Marion Barber over AP and LT – I had the #2 pick and though I thought Barber would be the better back this season, I knew the “value” was with Peterson and Tomlinson. Anyway, after your advice to “go for it” I did grab Barber #2 overall, ahead of LT and Peterson (Brady was picked #1 – hahaha), and right now Barber is easily outscoring both of those guys. I got laughed at during the draft we have at my buddies house, but I just shrugged it off and said, “We’ll see.” Well, we’re seeing right now. Barber is a BEAST! Thanks for the courage!”

You bet Bad Boy – anytime I can help. The funny thing is, in a year where everyone was crawling all over quarterbacks and receivers, four running backs sit atop fantasy land’s scoring highs after Week 3. Reggie Bush, Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and Frank Gore. Brilliant – we were higher than most on all 4 of those guys here at LuckyLester.com, and it’s nice to see our hard work paying off for readers. I still think Barber is the best back in fantasy football as I predicted that he would be the top fantasy back this year. Thanks for the love, but remember, you also thought Barber was the best choice available – you gotta give yourself a little credit, all I needed to do was give you a little push. Good luck the rest of the way!

Dough Slammer from East Carolina writes, “Haha – when I first read this “Barry Sanders and Ahman Green have similar chances to succeed in 2008, so for fun, do draft the former right after the latter is selected,” in your “Dos and Don’ts: Draft Day Trickery!” article I just about pissed my pants… freaking hilarious. Then I started to think about it, and not only are your right, but I’m pretty sure I’m going to do this for the rest of eternity. Anytime somebody does something like this I’m taking Barry Sanders or Bo Jackson, or somebody that was popular back in the day that could still take the ball for 5 yards a carry in their early 40s. Anyway, to my other comment; in that same article you said, “Don’t pick anybody that broke a record last season – the value just isn’t there,” and I couldn’t help but think, this guy is funny, sure, but he’s an idiot – everyone wants Randy Moss and Tom Brady on their team.” Now I’m thinking, okay, this guy is funny and he’s a freaking fortune teller – how did you know they were going to struggle and do you have any other advice for the rest of the season?”

Dough Slammer, a couple things. First of all – your name is to be recognized as a great nickname with epic story lines that could explain why you are indeed called, Dough Slammer. Brilliant. Second, I love your email, it makes me feel all warm and cuddly inside, and appreciate the fact that you appreciate what I’m doing here for next to nothing (My nephew gives me a beer for every article I write – which is nice because I’m not supposed to drink, and he’s the only one that gives me it, but still, next to nothing). Third, I didn’t “KNOW” for sure that Tom and Randy would struggle, but the chances of guys that played every single game of a 19 game season getting hurt are a lot greater than guys who played 14-15 or even 16 games. The Patriots were going all out all the time in every game they played – just more contact, more collisions, and more future problems come from that. But taking a player that just broke a record is never good. First of all, there’s almost 0% chance that they relive those same numbers. And second, everyone else knows about them and wants to have them on their very own fantasy teams. Lastly, I’ll do this one favor for you. Go right to the first Jamal Lewis owner you have in your fantasy leagues, every single one of them, offer that guy or those guys one of your players that is decent, that has played above his pick level, and trade for Lewis if you can. Don’t give up a starter on your team, but for example, you might be able to trade Ronnie Brown for Jamal Lewis and Braylon Edwards (a perfect guy is “pick all the Browns guy” because he should have both Edwards and Lewis right now). Feel good about that trade. Trade Hines Ward for Lewis. Trade Felix Jones for Lewis. Edgerrin James for Lewis – you bet. The point is this. Jamal played pretty well against very tough rush defenses. The hardest part of his schedule is over and he’ll start to put up some big numbers, because just like the Saints last year, the Browns are going to get back to doing what they did in yesteryear, and Lewis is going to be a big time reason why. He’s basically free right now. Make it happen if you can. Good luck the rest of the way Dough Slammer! Keep on reading the good stuff…

Three for Thursday

I’ve got three more tidbits for you valued readers… Who else would give you this kind of love?

Chris Perry… Ravens – Ravens… Chris Perry: Poor guy. Chris Perry gets his first start in the NFL after being injured for what has seemed like his entire pro existence, and who does he get to try and stay healthy against? Oh, just the Baltimore Ravens. Hopefully he can catch the ball, because running it didn’t really pan out for opposing offenses last season. How many yards per rush do you think the Ravens gave up last year? 4? 3? Nope, try 2.8. Yes sir, 2.8 whole freaking yards. That’s the lowest in the league. Many would think that the Vikings were the best run defense last season because of all the hype that goes with their monstrous defensive line, and they did allow the least amount of total rushing yards, but no matter how hard opposing offenses tried, the Ravens wouldn’t budge. They were the only defense to keep opposing rushers under 3 yards per carry in ’07. I’m guessing Perry doesn’t look like a million bucks his first time out. You have to go back to 2000 to find a defense that bettered the Ravens in ’07, and what do you know, that was the Ravens. 

Shaven, no Bush: Reggie hasn’t had a stellar start to his young career, but the Bucs really seem to cut him down to size. In two contests against the Bucs in ’07, Reggie rushed 23 times for 81 yards, 9 catches for 56 yards, zero touchdowns and 4 fumbles. In ’06, during his rookie year, Reggie had 20 carries for 18 yards, 15 grabs for 85 yards, and no scores. In one game he had 11 carries for -5 yards with a long of 3. I like Reggie. I think he’ll be a good player in this league, and he’ll figure out how to hit a hole during his third season. But, he won’t do it on opening day – don’t put all your eggs in this Bush.

Racking up the Yards: I know I talked about McFadden, Selvin Young, Thomas Jones, and the Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown duo headed into this weekend’s games – but I found some more stuff that I just had to share. Only 3 teams gave up more rushing yards than the Jets. Only two teams gave up more rushing yards than the Broncos. Only one team gave up more on the ground than Oakland. And nobody allowed more rushing yards than the Dolphins. Lucky for you fan of the ground game, the Dolphins take on the Jets while the Raiders host the Broncos on Monday Night. This is what I call a tournament. The seedings would look like this… 4 @ 1 and 3 @ 2. I hope the winner gets to go to the Super Bowl – but that probably won’t happen. It’s a good week to own this group of fantasy backs. 

Get back here at the end of the work week to read Five for Friday

Papa's Predictions

So what, I’m old and these damn computer things seem to get the best of me at every turn. I need glasses to watch the game, and sometimes I yell “fumble” while sitting all by myself on my big ass chair in my big ass living room on my big ass. Oh, and sometimes there was no fumble at all – forgot to mention that. In fact, I seem to forget from time to time as well. Screw it, all that jazz doesn’t even matter because when it comes to football I surely know my game. I’ve said some things that have been wrong, but that only accounts for 3 instances in my football existence. So, when asked to do my predictions I figured, what the hell. Sure, the nephew might be able to actually keep tabs on the things I predict now, but that just gives me one more chance to prove my football knowledge dominance in this family tree. Let the predictions begin with glory and rapture!!!

 

  1. Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns.
  2. LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. 
  3. Earnest Graham won’t get 20+ carries in more than 3 games this season – and that bites into his value.
  4. Deion Branch – best fantasy receiver in Seattle (total points).
  5. LeSean McCoy will be a better professional running back than Beanie Wells – and he will be something (draft him in leagues where that’s a part of it).
  6. Willis McGahee – 1200+ rushing yards for the Ravens.
  7. Edgerrin James will break the 1000-yard mark once again.
  8. My nephew thinks Calvin Johnson will be a Top 15 WR – he’ll be a Top 5 WR – my nephew will edit this article and I thank him for that.
  9. Matt Ryan – much better fantasy quarterback than Joe Flacco this season – but neither will bust the Top 20.
  10. Chad Pennington will bust the Top 20, and throw at least 20 touchdowns if he plays more than 12 games.
  11. Jerchio Cotchery – easily outscore Coles in New York.
  12. Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7.
  13. Kurt Warner will get hurt in the first four weeks, allowing Matt Leinart to take the starting job back and keep it for the duration of the season – the entitled little bastard.
  14. DeAngelo Williams gets 66% of the carries in Carolina and rush for 1000+ yards for the first time in his career.
  15. Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end.
  16. So will Greg Olsen.
  17. Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again.
  18. Steve Slaton will lead the Texans backfield, and will approach 80 receptions.
  19. Marion Barber – best running back this season in fantasy land.
  20. Brain Westbrook won’t play more than 11 games – as much as I love the guy.
  21. Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back.
  22. Frank Gore – top 5 fantasy back.
  23. Randy Moss – catches less than 15 touchdowns, but still has a great season – more catches this year.
  24. Chad Johnson figures out that the Bengals don’t have a chance by Week 6 – that’s when he opts for season ending surgery – he gets traded in 2009.
  25. The SeaChickens don’t win the NFC West this year.
  26. Neither do the freaking Niners.
  27. LT scores in each of his first four games to start the season.
  28. Adrian Peterson won’t break the Top 5 running back list in 2008.
  29. Willie Parker revisits his 2006 form and finishes the year with 1300+ yards and 9 touchdowns or more. (nephew thinks this is crazy old man speak)
  30. Plaxico Burress – his best statistical season, don’t believe my nephew’s bad ju-ju.
  31. Steve Smith – will be the #2 in New York and catch 65 balls at least.
  32. Steve Smith – Carolina’s best weapon puts up 12 touchdowns and finishes in the Top 5 amongst per-game fantasy receiver.
  33. Brandon Marshall – does work in Denver, grabbing 100+ balls in 15 games.
  34. Rookie receiver James Hardy will lead all rookie receivers in touchdowns.
  35. Tony Scheffler – Top 5 TE.
  36. The Ravens will lose at least 12 games.
  37. Santana Moss – ready? – 1300+ yards, 9+ touchdowns, 80+ grabs – believe it. 
  38. Ronald Curry finally meets my nephew’s expectations now that he hasn’t said anything about him recently – 1000+ yards and 6 or more scores in 08.
  39. Chris Henry – more touchdowns for the Bengals than Chad Johnson gets.
  40. Adam “Pacman” Jones never gets in trouble again – he also plays offense a little this season and scores at least 4 touchdowns.
  41. Jamal Lewis will be a great buy-low candidate after Week 3 – get him then and reap the benefits. (nephew thinks this is a great call)
  42. Ryan Grant is going to be a beast – 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns are not out of the question.
  43. Reggie Bush – 10+ total touchdowns this season, his highest total of his career.
  44. Deuce McAllister will lead the Saints in rushing yards -even on 3 bad knees.
  45. Maurice Jones Drew – 200+ carries for 1200+ yards and scores at least 14 times – and welcome to JD being a Top 5 fantasy pick for the next 4 years.
  46. Tarvaris Jackson – 20+ touchdowns for the Vikings. (interesting says the nephew)
  47. So does Jason Campbell, but not for the Vikings.
  48. Anquan Boldin catches more balls than Larry Fitzgerald.
  49. Marvin Harrison catches 80+ balls and scores between 8-12 times.
  50. Terrell Owens will lead all receivers in touchdowns – damn his black heart. 

Ask Papa Weimer: Last Pre-Season Questions

Here it is, one more question and answer section from you guys to me – there were three pretty solid email questions that I thought would be good to share – these are them.

David-Bill-Bob from America writes, “What do you think of Ted Ginn as a possible receiver option this season? What about Robert Meachem, James Hardy, Devin Hester, and Sidney Rice? Can you rate that foursome?”

Oh yes, lots of upside here. Not very much sure-thing here, but who loves to play a game you’re sure to win? Not me – I’m all about the upside. Forget the Bobby Engrams and the Derrick Masons, I’ll wait longer and dance with the young-guns. I think Ted Ginn could be a great player in the Dolphins passing attack, but I doubt he’ll score many touchdowns. The thing that’s good about his situation is that Pennington throws short a lot and Ted is fast enough to get some separation early. As for the rest of the guys, Devin Hester is my favorite – he’s a touchdown waiting to happen, and even if he gets 60 catches this season, he’ll probably take 10 of them to the house. Robert Meachem could be the best of the bunch, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the kid coming out of college. He looked solid in the pre-season, and what a weapon he could be if Drew Brees finds a liking for throwing to him against single coverage. Sidney Rice is a nice sleeper – it’s said that T-Jackson is more accurate than ever, and with Berrian opposite Rice, Sindney should get lots of single coverage. I don’t know if the Vikes will throw enough to make Rice a solid start week in and week out, but the kid can go up and get the ball, which might be good for 6-9 scores as defenses will focus on the run. James Hardy was my favorite receiver in the draft and I think he has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie and the speed of the game might hamper him early. Keep an eye on him though, when he figures it out he’ll be a threat. I’d rank them like this… Ginn Jr. – Devin Hester – Robert Meachem – Sidney Rice – James Hardy.

Tim from Floresville, Texas writes, “The people in my league think I am crazy for trading Chad Johnson for Bernard Berrian. What do you think?? I only picked up Chad to trade him, his inconsistencies and the fact that Cinci has the 2nd toughest schedule against the pass this season made me trade him away.”

Tim, I think BB is a good receiver, but he’s not Chad Johnson. I fully understand taking Chad so you can trade him later, but I still don’t think you got the best value you could have by grabbing BB in a trade for him. If all you wanted was BB, you could have just drafted him instead of Chad. You likely would have gotten a better RB where you got Chad, and you still could have got BB later. You say Berrian didn’t have anyone throwing him the ball last year, but in reality, Tarvaris Jackson isn’t even as prolific through the air as Rex Grossman is. I like Jackson’s upside, but even if Chad has a down year and Berrian plays really well, I thikn the best you can hope for here is a push. Even against tough passing defenses, the Bengals still ahve Carson Palmer and TJ Housmandzadeh to help take the pressure off Chad. Maybe the Bengals just crash and tumble, and maybe Chad is hurt and out longer than expected – and maybe Jackson shows maturity and tosses 20 touchdowns. I don’t know, but that just seems like a lot of maybes to hope for. I have BB in a few leagues, and I would definitely trade him straight up for Chad in every one of them. But no, I don’t think you’re crazy, I think you’re courageous. There’s nothing better in fantasy football than making a trade that everyone thinks you are stupid for and coming out on top because of it. That means you were right and everyone else was wrong. That’s the best. You definitely did your research, and I’m rooting for you. Also, Chad isn’t consistent, that’s true. Over the last couple seasons, he’ll help you win 3 or 4 weeks and kill you for the other 10. With a lot of single coverage, because of Peterson, BB could end up being a lot more consistent that Chad. Good luck!

T.J. in Alabama says, “Papa, you have any sweet predictions this season? Last year you told me that Randy was going to blow up and Larry Fitz was going to lead the league – both had huge years for me and I’m back for more. Any secret advice?”

Like Chef once said, “You’ve got to find the clitoris.” That might not help in this particular situation, but it does allow older men (like myself) to pleasure younger women, which in turn gives hope to mankind. Alright, alright, I was planning on a little, “This is how I see it” article next week, but here’s a little preview, T.J., you impatient bastard!

Larry Johnson will be a Top 5 running back this year, making him an absolute steal at the end of Round 1 where he’s getting drafted.

Drew Brees will throw more touchdown passes (I’m thinking 36) than any other quarterback in the NFL this season. That’s right, while I’m not a huge fan of Jeremiah Shocker, he will take that much pressure off of Drew because of the constant attention opposing defenses will have to pay him. I don’t think Shockey’s touchdown totals will improve all that much (he’s bound to drop as many TDs as he catches – so probably 6-7 scores for him) but Reggie Bush, Colston, and Meachem will all set their season high touchdown marks this year. Brees as well.

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Edgerrin James – this is no knock on James, because Ricky will outscore three of the following high-round picks… LenDale White, Earnest Graham, Ronnie Brown, Julius Jones, and Willie Parker.

Adrian Peterson extreemists are right, there will be at least one back that outscores LaDainian Tomlinson this season, but they are also wrong, because it won’t be AP – Marion Barber will lead all running backs in fantasy points this season.

And last but not least, Randy Moss won’t come close to his record touchdown catches of last year, but Wes Welker will score more fantasy points this year than he did last year – both are still great options to have.

Keep the questions coming, and stay tuned, I’ll be here all season! (hopefully the ticker keeps tickin’)

Big Names of Shame

Okay, maybe I won’t get all those things, but I will get great NFL players for less than their numbers insist. If you’re not picking at the top of your draft then you won’t get LT or AP. If you’re not the one guy making a first round mistake, Tom Brady won’t find his name on your roster either. But that’s okay; you can still dominate your league.

I’ve set up a little versus action below. I have a big name and a small name, both with very similar production and ability. A little comparison and contrast will help you on draft day. Pick the best player on the board, but don’t pick a name – this is a numbers game where sticks and stones don’t do jack and names will put you on your back.

Drew Brees VS David Garrard

From a distance, these two signal callers couldn’t be farther apart. Drew Brees is getting drafted in the 3rd round of most fantasy drafts for the second straight season, while David Garrard, though finally being picked in fantasy drafts, is garnering a 9th round pick on average, or is just about the 94th player taken in Yahoo drafts.

But when you break down the fantasy ability of these two players, things get a little closer. Drew Brees may have the flashier numbers, sure, 28 touchdowns compared to just 18 for Garrard, and 4428 passing yards compared to Garrard’s 2509. You’d think Brees produced a much better fantasy season than David. Not by as much as you’d think. See, Garrard played in just 12 games, counting the game he got hurt. So, his 211 fantasy points over 12 games becomes a lot closer to Brees’ 302.

In fact, Garrard’s points per game total (17.58) was just about one point behind Drew’s total of 18.8 points per game. You might think that Brees is more of a sure thing, and you are probably right, but when it comes to taking Brees or Garrard, you might want to consider the type of receiver you can get in the 3rd round compared to the 9th round. TJ Houshmandzadeh, Colston, Holt, Shad Johnson, Plaxico, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker are all 3rd round picks while Joey Galloway, Cotchery, Santana Moss, and Anthony Gonzalez are all 9th round receivers.

Garrard may still be a little behind Brees, but last year was his first campaign as a starter and he likely has yet to reach his pinnacle. And in my mind, he’s a much better value around the 9th round than Brees is in the 3rd.

Peyton Manning VS Jake Delhomme

Okay, so this comparison isn’t going to trick many people – heck, I’d even take Manning over Delhomme, but for the price, Jake has to be more worthy of a selection. Jake is coming off a major surgery but, get ready for this Colts fans, so is Peyton. In fact, Peyton’s infection in his knee has me more worried about lingering effects then Jake’s elbow. But lets leave injuries aside for just a second and get back to a numbers game.

There was only one quarterback in the NFL that had more fantasy points per game than Jake Delhomme did last season. Yes, you guessed it, Tom Brady. An I know he only played in three games, but Jake put up 24 points per game last season, better than Manning (20.6), Romo (22.2), Big Ben (20.8), or any other quarterback without an S on his chest like Tom.

When you factor in that Manning is getting selected as the 12th pick overall and Delhomme is riding 108 down the street, Jake gets even prettier. In 2004 and 2005 (his last two seasons in which he played all 16 games) Jake tossed 29 and 24 touchdowns respectively. He threw 8 in three games last season.

Listen, I’m not going to say that Manning isn’t a good bet to put up great numbers, he’s the definition of consitency, but Jake has had some nice seasons too, and the additions of Jonathan Stewart, D.J. Hackett and Mushin Muhammad are three more reasons to expect big things out of the Carolina signal caller.

Reggie Bush VS Frank Gore

Okay, I’m kind of cheating here because Reggie Bush and Frank Gore are both big names, and in reality, Reggie is a much bigger name than Frank – but not in fantasy circles apparently. In Yahoo Averages Reggie Bush is getting selected as the 62nd player overall while Frank Gore is getting taken in the 1st round of almost every single league, getting picked in the top 10 in most drafts. It doesn’t seem to matter if it’s a PPR league or a non-PPR league, Gore is still getting selected an average of 4-5 rounds ahead of Reggie.

I like Gore and think his upside this season is grand, but for the first time in his football career, I think people are undervaluing Reggie Bush. In leagues that don’t award points per reception (PPR) Bush still finished just 1 point per game played behind Gore – (10.4 to 11.5). In PPR leagues, it’s Bush that holds a 4 point per game played average over Gore. Now I know Frank played through some injuries during the season, and the 49er offense was abysmal, but Reggie had some struggles too and eventually went out for the season after his 12th game of the year.

Reggie was expected to change the face of the league, be one of the best running backs of all time, and sprint all over the field like Walter and Barry Sanders and LT. And he’s obviously not that type of football player and this season people are out to call Reggie Bush a bust. He hasn’t looked great in the pre-season, but I still expect him to have a solid season, much better than the 60th pick overall.

I would still rank Frank ahead of Reggie, but if you can wait and get Reggie in the 5th or 6th round, you’ve found yourself a steal. Reggie will always be a big part of the Saints offense and if you are in a PPR league, ride Reggie’s bad hype and grab him late, he won’t disappoint.

Earnest Graham VS Steven Jackson

It may be tough to call out Steven Jackson’s bum year in 2007, but I’m not willing to make him the 3rd overall pick in Drafts right now. He’s a question mark, holding out from camp and such, and he’s coming off a very bad season (like most Rams in ’07). I think he’s better than the Jackson we saw in ’07, but to get his services you are blowing a Top 5 overall pick. To garner Earnest Graham’s name on your roster, you can usually wait until the 8th round. To be safe, really go for it and grab him in the 7th. Graham didn’t become a full time starter until Week 7 against the Lions, and he really took off from there.

At 5’9” and 215 lbs, Earnest plays a lot bigger than he is. He can really catch the ball (49 grabs for 330 yards on the season) and he had 5 or more catches in 5 of his last 10 games. Graham rushed the ball 222 times for 898 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry behind an exciting young offensive line in Tampa Bay. Despite not starting and getting big carry totals until later in the year, but still playing in 15 total games, Graham still averaged just two points less per game than Steven Jackson did in Steven’s 12 contests. He produced more fantasy points on less touches (275 for Jackson 271for Graham) though, which should further explain what I’m trying to say.

Steven Jackson has shown what he can do, and he’ll always get selected ahead of Graham as long as he’s in the league, but Graham is a much better value and even has a chance at out-producing Steven over a 16 game season.

Some people are worried about Caddy Williams coming back and stealing touches, but I wouldn’t let that bog me down. Graham has produced better than Williams ever has, and he just signed a new contract that should keep him toting the ball in Tampa. 3rd or 80th – you make the decision.

Wes Welker VS Anquan Boldin

This is a trick because these guys are both steals and you can get them consistently after grabbing guys like Torry Holt and Plaxico BUrress. First of all, Boldin always produces at an unreal pace when he’s on the field. He’s been a little injury prone, but the bottom line is that Matt Leinart loves to throw him the ball, you know, because he fights like hell and always makes a lot out of a little, and he’s always good. He’s getting picked later because Larry Fitz has been overshadowing him for the last couple of seasons, but don’t feel bad about taking him as your #1 or #2 wideout, he’ll produce like one.

Wes Welker isn’t getting much credit for his 112 catch performance from a year ago, but I don’t see why not. Many people don’t expect those numbers again, and I must say, I don’t think he’ll mirror those numbers either – I think he’ll increase his totals across the board. 120 grabs for 1200 yards and 10 scores wouldn’t stun me at all. Listen, the Patriots don’t go sign career special teamers to big long contracts for no reason – they knew what they were doing when they snagged Welker from the Dolphins. New England had a tough time getting Moss singed again, but Welker is already locked away. What does that tell you? You might not have expected Welker to produce like he did, but the Patriots sure did. That should mean something.

Yeah, I do what I want, even change up my own articles and throw the rules right out the window. It’s good to be me.

So there it is, a few versus games that should get you going. All I’m saying is, just because your team looks great on paper doesn’t mean they’ll produce like Fantasy Champs. Believe in the little guy and you shall be set free!