Fantasy Focus: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

Okay, so I’m a little butt-hurt after losing the crown to a non-family member last week, but then I started thinking, friends, good ones, they’re like family anyway – and as much as I believe that, and know that it’s true, it didn’t make me feel one ounce of better. Josh won last week, inching me here, sneaking past me there, and just finishing ahead of me in numerous areas. I don’t like the feeling and I don’t like losing to friends, it’s almost worst than losing to people I don’t know – shoot, it’s 10x worse than losing to people I don’t know.

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Anyway, this week should see the title return to the rightful owner of pure fantasy genius. It’s an all RB Elite starts this week, I couldn’t pass it up with so many great match-ups. Consequently, there are 5 RBs there and not one of them is Adrian Peterson against Detroit. I justify that by saying that Detroit allows a lot more passing TDs than rushing scores, that the Vikings like to rest Peterson when up big against bad teams, and AP has just 2 100+ yard rushing games this year. But why do I feel like that’s going to come back to haunt me? Oh well. Here’s this week’s fantasy focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Ray Rice– I never thought I’d put Ray Rice as my number guy, but he’s been great.
2. Chris Johnson – I think this game will be closer than people predict, but CJ will kill.
3. Michael Turner – Atlanta’s back to doing what they do best, and Turner is solid.
4. DeAngelo Williams – The Falcons can’t stop him, but John Fox will try.
5. Thomas Jones– “@ Jacksonville” – that’s all I needed to see.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I think he has a big week in Pittsburgh, despite struggling last time.
2. Percy Harvin – I love they dynamic rookie going up against the TD giving Lions.
3. Pierre Thomas – Somebody has to carry 20+ times against the Rams, I pick PT.
4. Devin Hester – I don’t see the Bears running very successfully in San Fran.
5. Sidney Rice –He basically went undrafted, but he’s been too good to be a sleeper.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Reggie Bush – Face it, he’s down to sleeper status, but I think he’s worth a start.
2. Beanie Wells – Call it a feeling, but Beanie might have his best game as a pro.
3. Steve Breaston –Ta-tas likes to hurt the Hawks, even with Boldin in he’s worthy.
4. Mark Sanchez– He’ll be solid, and his running ability will accrue some points.
5. Ricky Williams – Ricky has been good this year, maybe he shouldn’t be considered a sleeper, but either way, he’s worth a flex spot against the Bucs defense.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– I might start him, but I won’t like it. I don’t see Addai running much.
2. Wes Welker– The Colts often do a good job on Wes ~ 7 catches for 40 yards I expect.
3. Matt Forte – You never know, but I think, and that’s good enough for me to sit him.
4. Mike Sims-Walker– I think D. Revis continues his work on big receivers.
5. Julius Jones– A nice game last week, but nothing for him in Arizona.

***One very small Bye for Week 10: don’t play Giants or Texans, they’re throwing a two team party in Vegas! Mind this little Gap!!!

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Week 9 Fantasy Rankings

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Ask Papa Weimer Part II: Week 9 2009 Fantasy Advice

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Here’s more stuff from the last couple days, hope these questions and answers give you that last little point you need to win your match-ups this week!

Stan from San Fran writes, “Papa, I think I want to start Forte and Westbrook at RB this weekend, Devin Hester, Greg Jennings, and Mr. Marshall at WR, but I have some other options, would you go with those guys or trade them for someone on my bench: Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Hakeem Nicks, Kevin Walter, or Pierre Garcon – I have to start 2 RBs and 3 WRs – thanks! I think Walter is intriguing this week, what do you think?”

I think Forte could find it really tough sledding against the Cardinals this week, but Mendenhall also goes up against a very tough run defense, and Felix Jones is still just a 6-10 carry guy, so yeah, Forte and Westbrook look like your best options – tough match-ups though.

I like your receiver options, definitely with you – but check and make sure that Hester is actually playing this sunday before you make that pick – he hasn’t practiced this week and I want to say he’s looking more questionable than originally thought – if he’s out, I’d roll with Nicks and the other two guys.

As for Walter, that’s something to think about, definitely, and maybe not as much his good match-up but the fact that Owen Daniels and his 10 or so targets are game isn’t there for the rest of the year. BUt the Colts defense isn’t just the starters, it’s a scheme and an idea, and they’ve had lots of players go through there and succeed in that scheme. Still, you’re right, Walter is intriguing for sure.

And Receivers are tough, but I probably wouldn’t play him this week against the Colts. You have Marshall who has a good match-up, nicks who has a good match-up, Hester who has a good match-up, and Jennings who is a stud against a pretty bad Bucs defense. Walter is going against a Colts team minus 3 starters, sure, but without two of those guys for the first few weeks, they were still a great pass defense. I’d stick with your originals – but you’re right, Walter has some upside.

Jason 85 writes his first novel, “Papa, So this is my first time coming to you for advice, but I went 0-3 last week and looking for other advice than my regulars because I NEED TO BOUNCE BACK!! I apologize if this is overwhelming and I’m gonna warn you, I may send you some more emails…

First, I need 2 running backs: Brandon Jacobs vs SD, Ronnie Brown vs NE, Barber vs PHI, Hightower vs CHI — I like: Jacobs and Hightower

B. I need 2 RB/2 WR/1 FLEX: Crabtree/Boldin/Manningham/Malcom Floyd/Kevin Walter ——  Sproles/Tomlinson/Maroney — I like: Crabtree/Tomlinson/Maroney, thinking of Floyd/Walter/or Sproles for the rest, I dont think boldin nor manningham will perform as needed this week.

C. I need 2 running backs: Chris Johnson vs. SF, Bradshaw vs SD, Westbrook vs DAL, McCoy vs DAL, Stewart vs. NO — I like: Johnson and Bradshaw

Hope I’m not overdoing it lol. I really need that bounce back. THANKS A MIL!”

Jason, haha, by all means, send more questions if you got ’em. Hopefully I can get you some advice that helps you get some wins this weekend.

A- I would start Brandon Jacobs and Ronnie Brown. Brown hasn’t had a big game in the last couple weeks, and I think he’s a great running back. The Dolphins should rely on him in that game. If you’re strongly against Brown, I think it’s tough to go with Hightower over Barber- Marion hasn’t rushed for over 3.6 yards per carry in his last 4 games, has been all but removed from the passing game where he’s normally a good receiver, and I’m just not sure what you’ll get from him – but at least he’s a touchdown threat and the Eagles don’t have a great run-defense. At least Hightower will be involved in the passing game, but Beanie Wells is teh better answer, and honestly I don’t see the Cardinals carrying the ball more than 20 times. Maybe Tim gets 6-10 carries. That’s not enough for me to start him.

B- I would go with Crabtree/Manningham Tomlinson/Maroney and it’s almost a coin toss, but Sproles big play ability gets the nod as the flex. I would go with Mannignham because I’m pretty sure he’s healthy, he claimed he could have played last week, and the Chargers don’t do a good job stopping the pass, I think the Giants throw the ball well this week. Sproles nor Tomlinson have a good match-up, but I still think they are your better options. The Giants aren’t likely to give up a ton of yardage to Malcom Floyd, but I can see going with him if Manningham’s status changes to doubtful or if you find out he’s not playing.

C- I like Johnson and Bradshaw as well. You can’t sit Johnson, he’s too good, and Bradshaw has a great match-up and is probably going to be used a lot against a Chargers team that should struggle to stop the speedy option in New York. Good luck this weekend, my man, hopefully you can gets a few wins!

Brian Henderson asks, “Is it to early to give up on Slaton?? I have been offered Rashard Mendenhall for Slaton. Should I do this? Thanks in advance for your time.”

Okay, so looking into this situation has been interesting. Here’s what I got on each guy.

Steve Slaton – Obviously one of the more explosive backs in the league, his burst is such that he scores touchdowns – most of his fantasy points have come from touchdowns and in the passing game – sound likes Reggie Bush – but Slaton is the better actual running back, and probably not as fast as Reggie – but both will continue to score touchdowns when given chances. That being said, Slaton hasn’t rushed for 100 yards yet this year (his highest three games are 76, 67, and 65 yards and the next best game is a 43 yard rushing day). But he also has 29 catches on 39 targets, 300+ yards receiving, and 3 receiving touchdowns). With Owen Daniels gone, it’s hard to think that Houston would just get rid of a huge chunk of their big plays and receiving prowess because he fumbled a few times to start the season, but Gary Kubiak did coach under Mike Shanahan – (you know that guy as the former running back killer, can use anyone and will extraordinaire) so you never know. Still, Daniels was a 10 target a game guy – those have to go somewhere, right? And I’m not so sure Ryan Moats is the 120+ yard 3 touchdown running back he was last week – they were playing the Bills, and the Texans did run the ball more than they had all season – I have a feeling Slaton would have gone for 150+ in that situation – but there’s obviously questions there. But Slaton has a pretty favorable rushing schedule going forward, not the best run D’s on the Texans’ schedule.

Rashard Mendenhall – On the upside, he is explosive, fast, powerful, has blocked very well and while he hasn’t been used often, he’s proven that he has very good hands (8 catches in 9 targets). He proven to be by far the more effective running back in PIttsburgh, and his upside is great. He’s also scored 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games. But look at his schedule, Broncos, Ravens twice, Bengals, Packers – and in Week 17 (if your league goes that far) he plays Miami – that’s 6 games against Top 10 run defenses (the Packers and Ravens during the playoffs – however, I’m not completely sold on Green Bay being some great run defense, they are very up and down). The Steelers haven’t run the ball very much, but you’d think they’d commit more to the run when the weather starts to rear it’s rainy, cold, head. I think Mendenhall could get 100+ yards with the benefit of 20 carries against any team in the league, but trading for him obviously means you are expecting the Steelers to run more, because besides his 1 big start against San Diego (165 yards) he’s really averaged just around 70 yards per game, but not for lack of yards per carry, he just hasn’t gotten the touches.

After everything, I think I’d stick with Steve – I just think it’s too early to give up on him. And this is coming from a guy that loves Rashard Mendenhall’s game – I’ve always thought he’d be the best running back from his class (Chris Johnson is making a case though, ha). I just think the Steelers aren’t going to stop throwing the ball too much, it’s their weakness right now – funny, their weakness is their own doing – but this is often the case – crazy life lesson… ha. Slaton is a big time risk right now, but depending on your roster, probably one worth taking – he proved to be a great second half runner last season, has easy run defenses in his future, and just lost a big time player in the offense that should give him more touches.

That’s my take. Good luck Brian.
PW

Fantasy Football Analysis: Ten For Tuesday

“Brett Favre looked like the much better quarterback all night long, but in the end his fantasy points were very similar to Aaron Rodgers’ totals. Ridiculous.” That’s what a buddy posted on my fantasy league’s message board after Monday Night’s game. So what, the people out there that want to believe great fantasy numbers make you the best player is confused. This is fantasy football, where team wins matter little, and garbage time is tacked on just the same. Rodgers put up 380+ yards, more than a 100 more than Brett. He gave up a couple turnovers, but those high numbers kept the fantasy night close. You can’t score points based on how good you looked, it’s all about numbers in this one….    Rashard Mendenhall looked like the beast I thought he would be since he decided to leave Illinois. Now he runs a little high, and that could subject him to some big hits, but he hits the hole hard, runs with power, and often spins or bounces off that first tackle. If he continues to get touches, he’s a nice find for those owners that either picked him up or kept him during his early woes. When he came out, I thought Mendenhall would be the best back in his class. That was saying a lot considering he came out with guys like McFadden, Jon Stewart, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice and others. I’m not positive he’ll pan out as the best of that stellar bunch, but I still like his future….    Speaking of last year’s draft, it has been nothing short of amazing. The amount of gamebreaking players that are tearing up the league right now as sophomores is amazing, even in the fantasy realm. I count 20 guys that have been fantasy relevant this year, just in the first 4 rounds – that’s not normal…..  The 49ers dominated the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, proving once again that their “need” for Michael Crabtree isn’t as pressing as the former Texas Tech star expected. Stories have surfaced that Crabtree and his agent are ready to get back to the bargaining table. It’s about damn time. I’ve now dropped the kid in both the leagues I’ve owned him in, and I’m keeping him on the waiver wire, but if you’re looking for a chance to take, he’s a deep shot in the dark….     Eli Manning has been worth every single dollar the Giants paid him this off-season, and yes, that took a lot for me to say. He’s going to have to really bite the dust hard if he wants to have the “normal Eli year” and I don’t think it’s going to happen. But things like his little heel problem throw, are part of the reason why I’ll never like this guy. He dropped back, landed weird on his foot, lost his balance, regained it, only to try and throw and fall down in the process like someone shot him in the foot. And what happened? Dude’s heel is bruised. Please……    I predicted a huge year from Ronnie Brown, and so far he’s looking pretty good to me. The guy is a beast, his vision is perfect, his all around game is impressive, and his team will be relying heavily on him to win ball games. He’s averaging just over 90 yards per game and a touchdown per. But this might be the height of his fantasy stock for a while. The guy is legit, but he goes up against the Jets (twice), and the Saints, in the next three games. It gets easier after that, but I’m just saying, get ready for some tough sledding ahead….    The Raiders offense sucks! 6 points against the Texans, come on….   Now the Saints running attack had a pretty solid outing against one of the best run defenses in football this Sunday, Pierre Thomas is the real deal; but it’s that stellar defensive transformation that continues to amaze me. The Saints really know how to bring pressure, often fooling teams into mishaps that leave open rushers despite rushing fewer people than offensive blockers. If you can get pressure on 6 blockers with 4 and 5 rushers, often going unblocked, you’re going to win a lot of football games….     Now this is the David Garrard I know and love. His accuracy, mistake free football, and efficiency has been great over the last two games. His 5-1 TD to INT ratio is consistent with his ability, and I think he’ll continue to put up solid numbers all season long. He got Torry Holt in the off-season, and that was huge, but seeing Mike Sims-Walker become a go-to guy will do wonders for this whole team. It’s just nice to finally see Garrard not running for his life every snap, his O-line is getting better every week….    I’d like to congratulate Denver for their awesome start to the season. I warned a lot of people that the Broncos weren’t as bad as everyone thought, but not even I thought they’d be this solid. Defensively they have gotten very tough, and Kyle Orton might be starting to figure out the talent he has on the outside (though he still hasn’t discovered Eddie Royal). Knowshon Moreno is going to be a special player, and it’s beginning to look like this McDaniels guy knows what he’s doing afterall, huh? I’ve liked him from the start, and his 4-0 beginning, the way he went and gave Marshall a hug after that game winning catch and run, and his overall passion and respect for the game is encouraging. Not only is his future bright, but I expect it to be long as well.