Ten for Tuesday: Week 7 Fantasy Football Analysis

“JaMarcus Russell, thank you for making an appearance on my fantasy team this week. I thought I was being a good owner, finding the only quarterback on the waiver wire that was starting, and giving Week 7 my best shot despite some tough bye weeks for my squad. But when it comes right down to it, my team had a better chance if I had not picked you up at all. Your stay will be brief, in fact I’ll cut you right now. Be gone!” Red Red Ryan couldn’t find a stop gap, he found a grenade…. 

no banners

 Paul Simon may have diamonds on the soles of his shoes, but Adrian Peterson has William Gay’s pride on the soles of his shoes. If you haven’t seen it, and you like football at all, (or if you just like to see what happens when you mess with the bull) check this out! AP Gives William Gay the Horns! The kid truly is special, if the Vikings weren’t so worried about AP’s physical running style and the way it effects his health, he’d touch the ball 40 times a game. And that wouldn’t be enough…..

no banners

Chad Henne threw a dime to Ted Ginn Jr. that was going to go for about 35 yards, and put the Fins that much closer to a kill shot on the Saints this week. But wait, Ted Ginn Jr. decided to tap the ball up into the air instead of just catching it, then he fell down, the ball just happened to go right into Darren Sharper’s hands, and he did what he does, scoring a touchdown, getting the Saints back in it, and highlighting that one thing that Ted Ginn Jr. just can’t seem to figure out – catch the damn ball. I can see Henne losing some confidence in Ginn, and then, that elite speed and Henne’s big arm will see fewer and fewer long distance get-togethers. Oh Ted, stick-em man, stick-em….   

no banners

I have something to say about Vernon Davis, WOW! That guy is really, really talented. He took a shot near the goal line this Sunday that would put almost every single skill player right on their aces, but not Vernon, he kept his balance and walked into the end zone. Everybody, and probably rightfully so, labeled Mr. Davis a bum, err, a bust after his first couple seasons in the league, but I hope everyone realizes what Mike Singletary’s leadership has done to this kid’s game. He’s always had the ability, and he’s always worked hard, but he’s focused every snap on Sunday’s and he could be something special for a long time…..  

Speaking of amazing plays by a tight end, has anyone seen somebody hold onto a ball after a hit better than Kevin Boss? If you missed it, Boss grabbed a ball with his finger tips then got absolutely obliterated by the Cardinals’ safety. He flipped all the way around and landed in a fashion that should have jarred the ball loose. But he’s tough. As nails. And he held on. Ted Ginn Jr., TO, go ahead and take a note or two on Boss’s catch….. 

Can somebody please tell me how John Fox, or his offensive coordinator, at the very least, still has a job? Down 7-2 at half, the Panthers come out throwing the damn ball. Why? Well, despite running effectively throughout the first half, they wanted to go back to their strength, interceptions. The Panthers are a running team, even Fox will tell you that, but somehow they always end up relying on the pass. Last time I checked, 7-2 to start the 3rd doesn’t eliminate the run from the playbook….. 

no banners

Don’t look now, but the Packers might actually pull their heads out and start handing Ryan Grant the ball 20+ times a game. I know it was Cleveland, a runner’s dream, but 27 carries for the big guy turned into 147 yards, and the Packers’ second blowout of the season (both 20+ carry games for Grant). Even against St. Louis, they didn’t start pulling away until they started feeding Grant the rock in the 2nd half. Grant runs really hard, straight down hill, and he could open a lot of play action for Jennings and Driver if they commit, this game might allow them to realize what that means….  

I wonder if, when the Bears dropped Cedric Benson, they ever thought he’d come back in a couple years, go up against them, and basically beast them all day long. Hmmm. I wonder if they thought Benson would be the best player on the field after they signed Jay Cutler to a big contract 2 year extension earlier in the week. Hmmm. I’m going to go on ahead and guess no on both accounts. Ced went balls out on Sunday, turning Chicago into a sieved. He wanted the ball, and he got it, 37 times. Nasty…..  

Yes, you can go ahead and mark it down, Shonn Greene and Miles Austin are both for real. Now Miles is going to be the sure thing heading forward, he’s going to start, and I don’t care how much money Roy Williams Jr. is getting paid, Austin is going to be the #1 in Dallas, and you all saw what Tony Romo can do when he has a sure thing guy out wide. But Greene, he’s a guy that many people might see as a one-game fixer. Listen, the Jets are going to run the ball early and often from here on out. Thomas Jones is a good back, yes, but he can’t carry the ball 25-30 times a game and stay healthy, not even with those huge freaking arms – so Green will get touches, and he’ll continue to show his worth. He was a beast in college, and he’ll be a beast for the Jets….. 

no banners

Nobody can stop Vincent Jackson! It’s not like the Chiefs were a ferocious foe, but it needs to be said. This guy doesn’t get the kind of credit he deserves, but he’s in that Top 10 group of receivers. He has elite speed, elite size, good jumps, and his hands have turned into sure things. He does it all, truly, and Phillip Rivers will continue to aim his marshmallows in Vincent’s general direction. If you can, get him quick!!!

Ask Papa Weimer: Last Pre-Season Questions

Here it is, one more question and answer section from you guys to me – there were three pretty solid email questions that I thought would be good to share – these are them.

David-Bill-Bob from America writes, “What do you think of Ted Ginn as a possible receiver option this season? What about Robert Meachem, James Hardy, Devin Hester, and Sidney Rice? Can you rate that foursome?”

Oh yes, lots of upside here. Not very much sure-thing here, but who loves to play a game you’re sure to win? Not me – I’m all about the upside. Forget the Bobby Engrams and the Derrick Masons, I’ll wait longer and dance with the young-guns. I think Ted Ginn could be a great player in the Dolphins passing attack, but I doubt he’ll score many touchdowns. The thing that’s good about his situation is that Pennington throws short a lot and Ted is fast enough to get some separation early. As for the rest of the guys, Devin Hester is my favorite – he’s a touchdown waiting to happen, and even if he gets 60 catches this season, he’ll probably take 10 of them to the house. Robert Meachem could be the best of the bunch, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the kid coming out of college. He looked solid in the pre-season, and what a weapon he could be if Drew Brees finds a liking for throwing to him against single coverage. Sidney Rice is a nice sleeper – it’s said that T-Jackson is more accurate than ever, and with Berrian opposite Rice, Sindney should get lots of single coverage. I don’t know if the Vikes will throw enough to make Rice a solid start week in and week out, but the kid can go up and get the ball, which might be good for 6-9 scores as defenses will focus on the run. James Hardy was my favorite receiver in the draft and I think he has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie and the speed of the game might hamper him early. Keep an eye on him though, when he figures it out he’ll be a threat. I’d rank them like this… Ginn Jr. – Devin Hester – Robert Meachem – Sidney Rice – James Hardy.

Tim from Floresville, Texas writes, “The people in my league think I am crazy for trading Chad Johnson for Bernard Berrian. What do you think?? I only picked up Chad to trade him, his inconsistencies and the fact that Cinci has the 2nd toughest schedule against the pass this season made me trade him away.”

Tim, I think BB is a good receiver, but he’s not Chad Johnson. I fully understand taking Chad so you can trade him later, but I still don’t think you got the best value you could have by grabbing BB in a trade for him. If all you wanted was BB, you could have just drafted him instead of Chad. You likely would have gotten a better RB where you got Chad, and you still could have got BB later. You say Berrian didn’t have anyone throwing him the ball last year, but in reality, Tarvaris Jackson isn’t even as prolific through the air as Rex Grossman is. I like Jackson’s upside, but even if Chad has a down year and Berrian plays really well, I thikn the best you can hope for here is a push. Even against tough passing defenses, the Bengals still ahve Carson Palmer and TJ Housmandzadeh to help take the pressure off Chad. Maybe the Bengals just crash and tumble, and maybe Chad is hurt and out longer than expected – and maybe Jackson shows maturity and tosses 20 touchdowns. I don’t know, but that just seems like a lot of maybes to hope for. I have BB in a few leagues, and I would definitely trade him straight up for Chad in every one of them. But no, I don’t think you’re crazy, I think you’re courageous. There’s nothing better in fantasy football than making a trade that everyone thinks you are stupid for and coming out on top because of it. That means you were right and everyone else was wrong. That’s the best. You definitely did your research, and I’m rooting for you. Also, Chad isn’t consistent, that’s true. Over the last couple seasons, he’ll help you win 3 or 4 weeks and kill you for the other 10. With a lot of single coverage, because of Peterson, BB could end up being a lot more consistent that Chad. Good luck!

T.J. in Alabama says, “Papa, you have any sweet predictions this season? Last year you told me that Randy was going to blow up and Larry Fitz was going to lead the league – both had huge years for me and I’m back for more. Any secret advice?”

Like Chef once said, “You’ve got to find the clitoris.” That might not help in this particular situation, but it does allow older men (like myself) to pleasure younger women, which in turn gives hope to mankind. Alright, alright, I was planning on a little, “This is how I see it” article next week, but here’s a little preview, T.J., you impatient bastard!

Larry Johnson will be a Top 5 running back this year, making him an absolute steal at the end of Round 1 where he’s getting drafted.

Drew Brees will throw more touchdown passes (I’m thinking 36) than any other quarterback in the NFL this season. That’s right, while I’m not a huge fan of Jeremiah Shocker, he will take that much pressure off of Drew because of the constant attention opposing defenses will have to pay him. I don’t think Shockey’s touchdown totals will improve all that much (he’s bound to drop as many TDs as he catches – so probably 6-7 scores for him) but Reggie Bush, Colston, and Meachem will all set their season high touchdown marks this year. Brees as well.

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Edgerrin James – this is no knock on James, because Ricky will outscore three of the following high-round picks… LenDale White, Earnest Graham, Ronnie Brown, Julius Jones, and Willie Parker.

Adrian Peterson extreemists are right, there will be at least one back that outscores LaDainian Tomlinson this season, but they are also wrong, because it won’t be AP – Marion Barber will lead all running backs in fantasy points this season.

And last but not least, Randy Moss won’t come close to his record touchdown catches of last year, but Wes Welker will score more fantasy points this year than he did last year – both are still great options to have.

Keep the questions coming, and stay tuned, I’ll be here all season! (hopefully the ticker keeps tickin’)