North Carolina State Wolf Pack vs Virginia Tech Hokies Pick

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North Carolina State Wolf Pack @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-19.5) Pick: The Wolf Pack don’t post much of a problem for the Hokies, at least not based on the type of teams that Va-Tech usually has trouble with. Obviously talent is far superior at Virginia Tech, but that’s not always a recipe for success. The fact that pass-happy, poor-running teams don’t seem to get much done against the Hokies is what means much more to me. Tech has shown, if you can’t run it with success, they’ll put you to rest.

The Wolf Pack don’t run the ball poorly, it’s just not a huge part of their offense, and they just don’t do it against good defenses. They have been out-rushed in  3 of their last 4 games, the Pack that is, and they’ve lost those 3. They’ve only lost 2 games by 20 points or more, against Clemson and Boston College, two defenses that don’t allow you to run with ease.

The Hokies have been out-rushed 4 times this season, they are 3-1 in those games with a 16-15 win over Nebraska in the other. North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Alabama (their 3 losses) all had the ability to run the ball with power and efficiency. That’s the link of the Hokies’ three losses. The Hokies have beaten 4 teams by 24 or more. The Hokies are playing their best defense of the season, and offensively they are leaning more and more on the run-game. That’s good for them.They win by 3+ TD’s in this one.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Oakland Raiders Free Pick & Preview

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Cincinnati Bengals (-9) @ Oakland Raiders Free Pick & Preview: Lets make something clear, in 7 wins this season, the Bengals have won by more than 10 just once. They’ve won by 7 or less 6 times, a field goal three times. They play close games. Even against Cleveland, the Bengals needed overtime to get the job done – and they needed every second of overtime, too. Not only that, but the Bengals are going to be playing without the most consistent piece of their offense, Cedric Benson, as the big Texas bruising tail back is doubtful with his hip injury.

The Raiders have been pathetic, no doubt, but I’m not sure if they’re quite as bad as people are giving them credit for. Sure, their owner is a full blow gong show in and of himself, the coaching situation is pathetic at best, and at quarterback they just benched the guy that had been terrible all season, only to get to another guy that has been equally as terrible in a reserve role. But in their 7 losses, 3 have been single digit losses.

My deal is you can’t relate every team to the new team they are playing now. I know Cincinnati doesn’t do much in terms of winning by big scores, but they can. They will probably have to throw the ball a little more this week, and that makes room for some quick scores. If the Bengals can put up three touchdowns, they cover this spread. I would be stunned if the Raiders put up more than 10 points.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines NCAA Pick

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Ohio State Buckeyes (-12) @ Michigan Wolverines NCAA Pick: One might argue that Michigan has played solid football against some tough teams, and earlier in the season that might have been true. This is a Wolverines team that beat the ranked Fighting Irish and almost upset an Iowa team that started 8-0. But Iowa played a heap of close games with just about everyone, and I think Notre Dame has been exposed for what they are, exactly what Michigan is, a good team in name only.

The Wolverines have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 8 games, leaving them at 5-6 and needing this win badly, as it will send them Bowling. But after all the talk about extra long practices and “volunteer” team conditioning, does this Michigan team really want to win and go through another month of practice under coach Rich Rodriguez? Can they really build on their last 4 losses enough to come out and play well against the Rose Bowl bound Buckeyes? Well enough to win? Against a Buckeye team that is easily playing their best football of the season down the stretch? That’s hard for me to buy into.

Ohio State has beaten Michigan five straight times, their longest winning streak in the storied history between two of College Football’s finest programs. The Buckeyes have covered 4 of those 5. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites over the Wolverines.

Now it’s true, nothing of substance is on the line for the Buckeyes here, and a situation like that could have a good team slow down a bit coming in – but against Michigan? Against their top rival? I don’t think so. I’ll take the Buckeyes!

California Golden Bears vs Stanford Cardinal NCAA Pick

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California Golden Bears @ Stanford Cardinal (-7) NCAA Pick: This come right down to me thinking Stanford is 2 touchdowns better than Cal on any given day. They pass the ball much better, run it better, are more physical, control the clock like it’s their job, and play a better brand of football with less room for error. Basically, Yahtzee! I feel like the Cardinal as a touchdown favorite is a glorious thing that everyone should get in on – so does 67% of the public, but so what, this one shouldn’t be too close.

Stanford hasn’t been favored in this in-state rivalry since 2001. That’s a long time ago folks, as scary as that sounds. Cal is 5-2-1 ATS over the last 8 meetings with Stanford, they’ve won 6 of the last 7 outright. Just for the sake of letting you know, the under has won in 6 of the last 7 match-ups.

Before last week’s win over Arizona, the Bears had been kicked around by each “good” team they’ve played. That means USC (30-3), Oregon (42-3), and Oregon State (31-14) in a game that wasn’t even that close. Their win over Arizona says something, definitely, they have a little fight in their pads, and that’s good for Bear fans. But this Stanford team is too good for any of that business to matter.

Unlike Arizona, the Cardinal should just bruise and batter the Bear defense just like USC, Oregon State, and Oregon did. 38-20 is my prediction.

Connecticut Huskies vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick

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Connecticut Huskies (+6) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Free Pick: The Huskies luck just has to turn at some point. When you think about the talented teams they’ve had to play over the last handful of weeks, and the way they’ve played close with in every single loss, and then the terrible times they’ve had to go through as a team, one would have to believe some sort of justice is on the way for the Huskies. When would be a better time than against an Irish team that has lost their token luck?

Not only is the timing right, but the Huskies look like the better team to me. I know it’s being played in South Bend, and I know a lot’s on the line for the Irish and their head coach’s job – but so what, the same can be said for the last two weeks, and no wins came from those games.

Who has Notre Dame beat this year? Washington State, Washington (with BS calls to aid them to overtime- the luck of the Irish, if you will), Purdue, Michigan State, and Nevada. They also beat Boston College, easily their best win of the year. The Irish have won 2 games by more than a touchdown. Washington State (quite possibly the worst team in College Football) and Nevada (to open the season).  Thanks for the scheduling, but I’m not impressed.

To be honest, I’m more impressed with UConn’s losses than Notre Dame’s wins. North Carolina by 2. Pittsburgh by 3. West Virginia by 4. Rutgers by 4. Cincinnati by 2, 45-47. The heart break hasn’t stopped for the Huskies since their teammate was murdered. But they are a good team. They fight with the best of them. I like them to continue their stellar play and turn their recent tough-luck around.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Boston College Eagles Pick

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North Carolina Tar Heels @ Boston College Eagles (-3.5) Pick: The Eagles are an unranked favorite against the 25th ranked Tar Heels – that has been a betting point for me over the years, and I like it again this week. But this game is going to be close, let’s face it, but not close enough for me to take the Heels and that valuable extra half point. So, something has to look good to me, but what?

How about the fact that Boston College is 6-0 at home this season. Sure, they haven’t played any world-beaters at their home turf this season, but this is a good home team, a team that makes very few mistakes, a team that is 5-0 ATS at home, with wins over Central Michigan and FSU – two teams that can put up some points. Also pulling me over to the Eagles side is North Carolina’s battered offensive line. 3 offensive linemen got hurt in their last game against Miami, and if a couple of them don’t play, or aren’t 100%, the Tar Heels could struggle to run the ball and keep pressure off of T.J. Yates.

Speaking of Yates, the talented junior and Carolina QB is having a tough season at the helm. He’s thrown just as many interceptions and touchdowns (10) and has averaged just over 5.5 yards per attempt this season – that’s not a good number, in case you didn’t know.

I just think these teams are very even, and the home field is definitely a huge advantage for the Eagles. That’s enough for me.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF Pick

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Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+3) NCAAF Pick: Oh, I love these games so much. You have a 2-8 team going up against a 5-4 team and they’re so close I’m going to go ahead and call them equal. Because of their records, and public perception of what those records mean, the Commodores are getting three points at their own place, even better! That being said, this spread isn’t big enough for people to stay away from a bad Kentucky team, nope, they are all over them thus far, 65% of the bets, just as I expected. I think Vegas realizes what’s going on here, the line hasn’t moved an inch. How can a 2-8 be equal to a 5-4 – let me dig in.

Well, for starters, both are 4-5 ATS, so they’re the same there. Second, just look at the brutality of Vandy’s schedule thus far, it’s a Quentin Tarantino film it’s so gory. Can you find an easy opponent they didn’t beat? Rice, got ’em, Western Carolina, got ’em! Maybe, just maybe Mississippi State and Army, so there’s a couple mediocre losses, but Vandy played tough in both those games. That’s right, as far as college football goes, the rest of their opponents have been beast-like. We’re talking Florida, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and LSU – lucky Vandy. So they’ve got 6 of their 8 losses against 6 teams that spent time in the Top 25 at some point this season – 4 have been in the Top 5.

Kentucky has 4 wins against Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, and Miami-Ohio – those teams are all terrible. There one decent win was against Auburn, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4, so they have some swag and mo going right now. But Vandy has played tough too. Over the last 3 they’ve played well above what people expected. The lost to SC by 4, were leading at half against Georgia Tech, and down just 1 going into the 4th quarter, and against Florida they were down just 13-3 midway through the 3rd quarter – their defense has had some solid performances lately.

That goes a long way with me, playing tough against good teams > beating up on bad teams.

Arizona Wildcats vs California Golden Bears Free Pick

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Arizona Wildcats (pk) @ California Golden Bears Free Pick: This game started where it should have been, Arizona favored at a Cal team that just isn’t nearly as good as the Cats – then it moved all the way to California being favored by 2 at home. Now this spread shouldn’t mean much in reality, I mean, 2 points, rarely do 2 points do anything at all – but it’s still ridiculous to me. I got them in the middle, at a pick-em. What has Cal shown against any worth-while team in the Nation, that makes them deserving of being favored against an Arizona team with just 1 Pac-10 loss? The answer, unquestionably, absolutely nothing.

The Bears have beaten college powerhouses like, Arizona State (by two), Washington State (doesn’t count), UCLA (worst record in the Pac 10), Minnesota (not even good in a bad Big 10), Eastern Washington (not even 1A), and Maryland (hiding in their shell all season long). Somehow, that got them ranked at some point. Then they were killed, take that back, embarrassed to the point of giving up against Oregon and USC. But then they had a stacked little schedule of mediocrity, and just like that they were ranked again. Then of course Oregon State made them look terrible again, because, well Oregon State is twice as good as Cal, and I’m guessing that’s the last time the Bears get ranked this season.

Then you have Arizona, beating Central Michigan (decent), losing by 10 to Iowa (9-1 on the season), beating Oregon State, beating Stanford, and running easily through UCLA and WSU of course. This Arizona team has beaten good teams, they’ve dominated bad teams, they are easily the better team here, but Cal has that name, and Arizona isn’t there yet.

Take full advantage, they may be 1-2 on the road, but Arizona is an easy pick here.

Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction

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Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers (-11) Prediction: I got this game at 11, it has moved to 12, but the points shouldn’t matter here. Oregon brought it to the Dogs, smacking them around in fine 43-19 fashion (and it wasn’t that close) and I expect the Beavers to do something similar to that. Teams that fully commit to running the ball against UW just embarrass the Dawgs. I basically think the Beavers, in their home stadium, are the Huskies worst nightmare.

Jake Locker may get all the hype, and he may be the more elite pro prospect, but Sean Canfield has impressed me more this season. Jake is a physical freak, one of the more impressive athletes I’ve seen play the QB position, but Sean is super accurate, completing 70% of this passes on the season. He has a very calm pocket presence and hangs in to make the big throw. He doesn’t make mistakes, mainly because he’s so accurate, and is basically the ideal quarterback to lead a dominating running attack like OSU has. But I don’t even know if Canfield will matter much in this game – I truly think the Beavers could hand the ball off every single play and win by two touchdowns.

The Huskies have lost 5 of their last 6 games after beating USC. The Beavers have won 4 of their last 5 after losing by five to Arizona. The Beavers’ only losses have come against USC, Cincinnati (both in close games), and Arizona. But it’s not about who they’ve played, but how these two match-up. Like Oregon, the Beavers are a nearly impossible match-up for the Huskies.

Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick

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Michigan Wolverines (+10) @ Wisconsin Badgers Football Pick: When you look at their most recent against a common opponent (Purdue), this game looks very scary. The Wolverines just barely lost to Purdue after falling apart in the second half, 36-38, while the Badgers smoked the Boilermakers 37-0. So all by itself, that looks scary. Then if you look at what Wisconsin has done lately, killing purdue after playing tough against Iowa, and then beating Indiana – they look even better. And then you have to look at Michigan lately, try 3 straight losses, including a 12-38 beatdown by Illinois, of all teams, and this game looks like a sure Wisconsin win. But wait, there’s more reasons to go against my pick – the Wolverines are 0-3 on the road this year. What am I doing here?

I’m looking at the bigger picture, that’s what. The Wolverines and Badgers are very equal teams. That’s right, look at it all and take it in. Both lost a close game to Iowa (besides Northwestern, who hasn’t lost a close game to Iowa?) – both got beat up by one of the best teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin 13-31 vs Ohio State, Michigan 10-35 vs Penn State) – both played close with Michigan State (Wisconsin winning by a score, Michigan losing in overtime), both beat Indiana by 3, both have beaten up on a lesser team or two, and both have had their poor performances (Wisconsin struggled but won against Northern Illinois and Fresno State – Michigan got killed by Illinois) – I’m telling you, these teams are more equal than their records insist. Better yet, they’re more equal than a 10 point spread.

Michigan has struggled over the last 3 games, no doubt, but it’s hard for me to ignore their start to the season where they either won or played close to every team they went up against. I expect them to get back to respectability against an overrated Wisconsin team.