Fantasy Focus REVIEW: Week 1

Posted on September 15, 2009 by luckylester

This is where I review everything I predicted from my fantasy focus article every week. It’s pretty easy to follow, always feel free to write in if you have any questions. As for my fantasy predictions in Week 1, some good, some bad, just like my fantasy teams. I’ve graded out each fantasy pick, and as you’ll see, I killed my sleeper picks for Week 1.

See how everyone did with Week 1’s overall positional rankings (PPR) listed next to each player’s name from Team Lucky Lester’s Week 1 projections below. Some hits and misses for all, no doubt, but naturally, I came out ahead of the group…

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – He finished 10th prior to Monday Night’s action, 17 fantasy points, they got way down early…. B-
2. Tom Brady – Tom started slow but ended up with 376 yards and 2 TDs. The guy is a sniper. A
3. Larry Fitzgerald – 6 catches for 71 yards and a TD: Not terrible, but worst than I expected, that offense was bad on Sunday. B
4. Randy Moss – Randy may have not caught any TDs, but his 12 catches for 141 yards totaled 26 fantasy points. Not bad. A
5. Brian Westbrook – Westy had just 15 fantasy points in a decent amount of action. The Eagles D was scoring too much for Eagle offensive players to light up the fantasy boards. B-

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I thought he’d grab 10, he grabbed 2. F
2. Reggie Bush –Reggie had 7 fantasy points, not getting into the scoring fun against the Lions. F
3. Ray Rice – Ray didn’t get involved in the passing game too much, but still had 13 fantasy points after rushing for over 100. B
4. Joseph Addai – He wasn’t too efficient, but scored and had just under 80 total yards. 5 catches were nice to see. 16 pts. B+
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Matt was #4 overall going into Monday, tossing for 279 yards and 3 TDs (2 ints as well). 22 pts. A

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – Donnie had 6 receptions for 46 yards, but lost a fumble too, finishing with 8 fantasy points. C-
2. Julius Jones – Jones was huge today (117 rushing yards and a score to go with 2 catches for 19 yards), most of it came on one huge run, but you can’t really take that away from him. A
3. Tim Hightower – I’m glad I got my hands on Hightower in some leagues, he caught 12 balls for 121 yards – 25 pts. A
4. Mark Sanchez – 272 yards, a TD and an INT – nice game for the rookie in a big win. Decent fantasy day. B
5. Nate Burleson – 2 fantasy points like ESPN projected? Ha. 7 grabs for 74 yards and a TD. Nate posted 20 pts for my team. A

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – 247 yards, 0 TDs, 2 ints… You’re welcome for this sit. A
2. Clinton Portis – 16 rushes for 60 yards. 1 catch for 10 yards. Could have been worse, but are you angry I told you to sit him? B
3. Willie Parker – 13 rushes for 19 yards. 1 catch for 5 yards. You’re welcome for this one too. A
4. Devin Hester – 4 catches for 90 yards and a nice long touchdown. Yeah, I was dead wrong about Devin. F
5. Hines Ward – 8 grabs for 103 yards was a good day, and even with the fumble he still put up 16 pts. Solid day. Sorry. F+

PS – I hope you didn’t start Marshawn Lynch like 33% of ESPN Leagues….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning 9	1.Tom Brady 4		1.Drew Brees 1		1.Tom Brady 4
2.Drew Brees 1		2.Drew Brees 1		2.Peyton Manning 9	2.Drew Brees 1
3.Tom Brady 4		3.Matt Ryan 8		3.Chad Pennington 26	3.Peyton Manning 9
4.Jay Cutler 25		4.Aaron Rodgers	13	4.Donovan McNabb 7	4.Aaron Rodgers 13
5.Phillip Rivers 15	5.Peyton Manning 9	5.Kyle Orton 14 	5.Matt Schaub 31

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson 1	1.Adrian Peterson 1	1.Michael Turner 46	1.DeAngelo Williams 11
2.DeAngelo Williams 11	2.DeAngelo Williams 11	2.Adrian Peterson 1	2.Brian Westbrook 15
3.Steven Jackson 43	3.Matt Forte 48		3.LaD. Tomlinson 30	3.Maurice Jones Drew 6
4.Ray Rice 20		4.Reggie Bush 31	4.Frank Gore 10		4.Adrian Peterson 1
5.Willie Parker	65	5.Knowshon Moreno 69	5.Ryan Grant 19		5.Ronnie Brown 34

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson	52	1.Calvin Johnson 35	1.Steve Smith 61	1.Randy Moss 3
2.Reggie Wayne 1	2.Terrell Owens	56	2.Reggie Wayne 1	2.Larry Fitzgerald 10
3.Randy Moss 3		3.Steve Smith 61	3.Marques Colston 33	3.Reggie Wayne 1
4.Vincent Jackson 18	4.Andre Johnson 52	4.Randy Moss 3		4.Andre Johnson 52
5.Calvin Johnson 35	5.Wes Welker 8		5.Eddie Royal 77	5.Greg Jennings 4

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates	12	1.Jason Witten 13	1.Dallas Clark 21	1.Dallas Clark 21
2.Jason Witten 13	2.Antonio Gates	12	2.Tony Gonzalez	4	2.Antonio Gates 12
3.Dallas Clark 21	3.Dallas Clark 21	3.Antonio Gates	12	3.Jason Witten 13
4.Greg Olsen 40		4.John Carlson 1	4.Owen Daniels 16	4.Zach Miller 7
5.Dustin Keller	12	5.Brandon Petitgrew 00	5.Jason Witten 13	5.John Carlson 1

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens 21		1.Ravens 21		1.Giants 3		1.Vikings 8
2.Steelers 9		2.Cowboys 29		2.Ravens 21		2.Ravens 21
3.Giants 3		3.Seahawks 4		3.Chargers 16		3.Cowboys 29
4.Patriots 24		4.Redskins 26		4.Saints 13		4.Giants 3
5.Bengals 12		5.Patriots 24		5.Steelers 9		5.Bengals 12

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We still don't care about kickers, but these guys were the Top 5 point producers...

1. Neil Rackers 2. Lawrence Tynes 3. Nick Folk 4. Jason Hanson 5. Joe Nedney

Looking back at the week's action.. Drew Brees was the #1 overall QB if averaged
out amongst our picks. The #1 overall running back was Adrian Peterson. So, as a
group, we got two right on the button. The #1 overall receiver, Reggie Wayne, was a
Top 3 receiving options on 3 writer's lists, making him the highest pre-rated receiver
on our boards as well. So, while none of us picked everything right, our highest
averaged players at the 3 key positions all finished #1 for the week. Now that's good
work. TE was a little bit different as only one guy, Red-Red Ryan Kauffman even had
John Carlson, this week's #1 TE, on his board. As for defenses, we all missed out on
the Eagles, who just happened to put up one of the all time great defensive point
scoring shows of all time on the unsuspecting Panthers. At least we didn't expect it.
What about the worst picks on our lists? Papa Weimer's WR chart had some issues as #1
Steve Smith had a terrible day, almost as bad as his #5 Eddie Royal. Arse's picks of
Steven Jackson and Willie Parker hurt his RB respect, and Andre Johnson as his #1
busted him, and everyone besides Papa. Ronnie Brown sure looked average in my Top 5,
and Matt Schaub finished well out of the Top 15 as well. Papa, Arse and I took big
chances putting Orton, Pennington, and Schaub in our Top 5 lists, none of which pay
off, making us look bad with 9, 8, and 4 points a piece. Obviously I looked the worst
in that gong show. We all picked the Ravens to finish either 1 or 2, they finished 21.
Who did we miss? Tony Romo and Joe Flacco went 2 and 3 for QBs in Week 1. Both went
unpicked by our four fantasy writers. Hasselbeck and Trent Edwards finished 5th and
6th respectively. Nobody picked the top defense (Philadelphia) to finish in the Top 5.
Nobody picked the second ranked defense (Atlanta) either.

Keeping score for week 1! This is the positional breakdown based on Week 1's rankings:
Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

1.QBs 2         	1.QBs 1		        1.QBs 3  		1.QBs 4
2.RBs 3		        2.RBs 4	   	        2.RBs 2                 2.RBs 1
3.WRs 2		        3.WRs 4		        3.WRs 3         	3.WRs 1
4.TEs 4  		4.TEs 3          	4.TEs 2         	4.TEs 1
5.DST 2         	5.DST 4         	5.DST 1         	5.DST 3

Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football

Posted on September 10, 2009 by luckylester

Hello all. For the last couple years I’ve posted a weekly fantasy football article with the title, theRUNDOWN – well after much thought and consideration, I’ve decided to ax theRUNDOWN and change the way I do things a little bit to make it easier for you. The new plan is that I’ll have a weekly article that highlights many important areas of the upcoming week. I’ll give you 4 different categories outlining fantasy startability every single week. We’ll have Elite Starters, Solid Starters, and Sleepers Starters – basically giving a list of 5 guys in each talent level with solid match-ups. I will also post a Sit ‘Em Son section for regular starters I’d steer clear from. That’s 20 guys rated out by me. Finally, I’ll get all the writers from my site, Josh Arsenault, Ryan Kauffman, Papa Weimer, and myself; to rank our top five players for the week at each position. With all things fantasy getting covered, I’m calling this section the Fantasy Focus. And focused it will be. Every new article will come with a small review of last week’s advice (except for this one because, well, there was no fantasy last week – it’s all just beginning). We hold ourselves accountable here. If we treat you well, we brag and gloat like Muhammad Ali, and if we dog it we own it. Here’s Week 1’s Fantasy Focus.

Elite Starters: Guys picked really early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – I think DeLo will get 25 touches this week, he’ll kill that bad run defense from Philly
2. Tom Brady – He’s finding Wes Welker and # 4 all day long.
3. Larry Fitzgerald – Boldin might have a small hamstring issue, that means more looks for Larry.
4. Randy Moss – These guys will go hand in hand, Randy and Tom, Buffalo is in for some hurt.
5. Brian Westbrook – He may be a little risky, but that defensive line from Carolina doesn’t stop the run.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – I think Eddie will grab 10+ balls this week.
2. Reggie Bush – Against the Lions, those who stole Reggie late should smile on Sunday.
3. Ray Rice – You betcha, Ray Ray, come on down and start off your season against the Chiefs… Lucky!
4. Joseph Addai – I think Addai gets 20 carries and does a lot with them against the Jags suspect run D.
5. Matt Hasselbeck – Get ready for Matt to torch the Rams secondary, he’s back and more accurate than ever.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Donnie Avery – will be starting, if you are throwing a guy into the fray, why not a guy against that secondary?
2. Julius Jones – I picked this guy in two leagues after the 11th round, he’ll be a top 20 back this week.
3. Tim Hightower – One of the lowest drafted starting backs in the league, Tim approaches 100 yards this week.
4. Mark Sanchez – I like Mark this week in his opener. He’s going up against a bad defense, check it down to Leon!!!
5. Nate Burleson – ESPN projects 2 points for Nasty Nate – yeah, right – good play this week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Carson Palmer – I’m not crazy about Palmer this week. I think they run the ball a lot against Denver.
2. Clinton Portis – I know he’s at his best early in the season, but this defensive front is as good as it gets.
3. Willie Parker – Willie got no love, then he got too much, even without Albert the Titans stop Parker.
4. Devin Hester – He may be a speed mis-match for Packers secondary, but those corners are too strong for Hester.
5. Hines Ward – I think Ward struggles in the opener, just a few catches, less than 50 yards.

PS – Don’t be the guy that starts Marshawn Lynch….

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning	1.Tom Brady		1.Drew Brees		1.Tom Brady
2.Drew Brees		2.Drew Brees		2.Peyton Manning	2.Drew Brees
3.Tom Brady		3.Matt Ryan		3.Chad Pennington	3.Peyton Manning
4.Jay Cutler		4.Aaron Rodgers		4.Donovan McNabb	4.Aaron Rodgers
5.Phillip Rivers	5.Peyton Manning	5.Kyle Orton 		5.Matt Schaub

RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Michael Turner	1.DeAngelo Williams
2.DeAngelo Williams	2.DeAngelo Williams	2.Adrian Peterson	2.Brian Westbrook
3.Steven Jackson	3.Matt Forte		3.LaDainian Tomlinson	3.Maurice Jones Drew
4.Ray Rice		4.Reggie Bush		4.Frank Gore		4.Adrian Peterson
5.Willie Parker		5.Knowshon Moreno	5.Ryan Grant		5.Ronnie Brown

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Andre Johnson		1.Calvin Johnson	1.Steve Smith		1.Randy Moss
2.Reggie Wayne		2.Terrell Owens		2.Reggie Wayne		2.Larry Fitzgerald
3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith		3.Marques Colston	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Vincent Jackson	4.Andre Johnson		4.Randy Moss		4.Andre Johnson
5.Calvin Johnson	5.Wes Welker		5.Eddie Royal		5.Greg Jennings

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Antonio Gates		1.Jason Witten		1.Dallas Clark		1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Antonio Gates		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Antonio Gates
3.Dallas Clark		3.Dallas Clark		3.Antonio Gates		3.Jason Witten
4.Greg Olsen		4.John Carlson		4.Owen Daniels		4.Zach Miller
5.Dustin Keller		5.Brandon Petitgrew	5.Jason Witten		5.John Carlson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Giants		1.Vikings
2.Steelers		2.Cowboys		2.Ravens		2.Ravens
3.Giants		3.Seahawks		3.Chargers		3.Cowboys
4.Patriots		4.Redskins		4.Saints		4.Giants
5.Bengals		5.Patriots		5.Steelers		5.Bengals

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your guess is as good as ours. Plus, we don't care enough to write about it.

Free Fantasy Football Picks: Papas Predictions

Posted on September 1, 2009 by Papa Weimer

My Nephew has me back giving some fantasy advice, he was nice enough to pay me nothing to work for another year, what a guy. But hey, I have fun doing it right? Shit, I only have to wear two pairs of glasses to see the damn screen, make 100 errors while hunting and pecking my way into oblivion, all the while trying not to listen to this voice in my head that keeps telling me to pick Barry Sanders in my upcoming draft – (I still do that with my last pick, what can I say, I’m hopeful for a comeback). So these are my predictions, I hope that’s not too quick of a transition for you, if it is just deal with it I guess. I’m old, but I’ve probably been playing fantasy football since you were an idea that your parents couldn’t even fathom – you know, when they still wore condoms and took birth control. So, I’ve been around for a while, won lots of fantasy championships, and learned from my mistakes as well. What has that taught me? That these predictions are more likely to be true than my nephews. That’s what. Why? Because I’ve only been wrong once, and that was when I thought I was wrong and was actually right. Here goes…

1. Matt Hasselbeck will be a Top 7 quarterback in 2009.

2. Either Chester Taylor or Jerious Norwood will be a Top 20 fantasy back this season. Choose wisely.

3. Matt Schaub will not play more than 12 games, but that’s okay, he’ll still throw 20 touchdowns.

4. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will be a Top 5 fantasy defense.

5. Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback.

6. Donovan McNabb will be Top 5.

7. Who will round out my QB top 7? Drew Brees and Philip Rivers and Tony Romo will be in there too. That leaves one spot left over, gotta have a flier in there somewhere – but I’m not going to predict that, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

8. The highest paid QB in the NFL finishes out of the Top 20 in fantasy QB rankings.

9. Even though I’ve had poops bigger than Darren Sproles and Leon Washington, both will finish amongst the Top 30 running backs in PPR leagues.

10. Thomas Jones won’t, Jamal Lewis won’t, Jonathan Stewart won’t either.

11. Knowshon Moreno will have at least five 100-yard games this season.

12. That will be more than Marion Barber.

13. This year’s DeAngelo Williams (surprise, out of nowhere back that is seemingly left for dead because of a high draft pick or “new” back taking his place? That would be Joseph Addai. He won’t be the #1 fantasy back like Williams was last year, but he’s getting drafted around 20 in most of my leagues, he’ll be a Top 10 guy.

14. Marshawn Lynch will be a Top 10 guy from Week 4 until Week 16 – do those week’s matter to anybody?

15. Not much of a stunner, but Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing yards, by a lot.

16. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson. Why? Ready… He’s going to have more fantasy points. But I like both guys.

17. Kevin Smith will be a top 10 fantasy running back.

18. Randy Moss will score more fantasy points that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will catch more passes than anybody in the NFL.

20. Chad Johnson will show everybody that last year was a fluke, and that he’s still very inconsistent, but will be a Top 10 WR in the fantasy world.

21. If Terrell Owens is healthy for all 16 games, he will be a Top 5 fantasy receiver. I will guarantee he’s a top 10 guy regardless.

22. Anthony Gonzalez will have more fantasy points than Roy Williams.

23. Lance Moore will have at least 70 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. That might not be last years’ totals, but that’s still pretty damn good considering where you draft the guy.

24. John Carlson will be a Top 6 Tight End.

25. Joseph Addai > Darren McFadden > Pierre Thomas… That would be opposite of their draft rankings.

26. Felix Jones scores more fantasy points than Ray Rice.

27. Donnie Avery scores more fantasy points than Donald Driver.

28. The highest scoring rookie receiver this season? Hakeem Nicks.

29. Brandon Jacobs will score more fantasy points, in non PPR leagues, than any other RB in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson. He’s number one, or maybe number two….

30. In the games that Reggie Bush plays in (I’m guessing 12-14) he’ll be a Top 10 PPR RB. So he has GREAT draft value right now. *Currently ranked 31 by Espin the Magazine.

Done and Done. It only took my a million hunts and pecks to find the right keys to right this damn thing, and if you count my hourly wage, I’m going to have to win the lottery to get out of the red… blast. But at least I’ll get to rub it in when these are all right.

2009 Fantasy Football Tiered Player Rankings: Lucky Lester’s Top 220

Posted on August 29, 2009 by luckylester

I’m back again with yet another fantasy article, this one rates out my top 220 players for this season and this season only. I’ve already busted out a dynasty chart (without rookies) for the next three years, you could check that out here. It’s an older article, and while some things have changed, that look should give you a decent view of the future if you find yourself in a dynasty league late this fall – but remember, it happened before the draft, and thus is without rookies, a valuable resource in dynasty leagues.

I’ve also spent a little time busting out some tiered rankings for each position, hopefully helping you on draft day – check that out here. I’m breaking these down into tiers as well, because a ranking list is nothing without a little crying game. Also, looking at my final rankings and my earlier tiered rankings, you’ll see some small differences. Why? Well, that’s because things happen over a month that give me reason to move players up and down. Nothing is concrete!

When I rank players, I’m not saying, “this is going to be the final points standings at years’ end”, no, I’m saying that this is the order of value, fantasy points, and upside going into draft day, a sort of cheat sheet to help you assess value on D-Day. Hope this helps!

First Tier

1.	Adrian Peterson – Favre signing just enough to get him on top.
2.	Maurice Jones Drew
3.	Matt Forte
4.	Michael Turner – I might not be giving him enough credit, looks great!

Second Tier

5.	LaDainian Tomlinson
6.	Steve Slaton
7.	Frank Gore
8.	Andre Johnson
9.	Larry Fitzgerald
10.	DeAngelo Williams – J-Stew’s injury woes has Williams moving up.
11.	Steven Jackson
12.	Chris Johnson
13.	Randy Moss – Randy is Tom’s favorite weapon.
14.	Brian Westbrook

Third Tier

15.	Steve Smith
16.	Calvin Johnson
17.	Clinton Portis – All four of these backs are great value picks…
18.	Ronnie Brown - …
19.	Ryan Grant - …
20.	Brandon Jacobs – His O-line is the stuff championships are made of.
21.	Marion Barber
22.	Tom Brady
23.	Drew Brees

Forth Tier

24.	Anquan Boldin – Best #2 in the league.
25.	Reggie Wayne – Still one of the best with one of the best tossing him balls.
26.	Greg Jennings
27.	Darren McFadden – all the talent in the world, lots of touches.
28.	Roddy White
29.	Terrell Owens
30.	Marques Colston

Fifth Tier

31.	Marshawn Lynch
32.	T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Housh looks like a 115 catch guy to me.
33.	Eddie Royal – Marshall moves down, Eddie moves up!
34.	Vincent Jackson
35.	Dwayne Bowe
36.	Derrick Ward – A pretty risky pick considering RB talent in Tampa Bay.
37.	Larry Johnson
38.	Knowshon Moreno – I still believe!
39.	Wes Welker
40.	Jason Witten

Sixth Tier

41.	Reggie Bush
42.	Joseph Addai – Running with something to prove, should be decent.
43.	Chad Johnson
44.	Anthony Gonzalez – This guy is crafty.
45.	Pierre Thomas
46.	Roy Williams
47.	Kurt Warner
48.	Peyton Manning
49.	DeSean Jackson – Has looked better in year 2, moving up my list.
50.	Aaron Rodgers
51.	Phillip Rivers
52.	Antonio Gates
53.	Tony Romo
54.	Donovan McNabb
55.	LenDale White
56.	Felix Jones
57.	Thomas Jones
58.	Julius Jones – No love for JJ, I think he’ll be solid.
59.	Ray Rice
60.	Dallas Clark
61.	Tony Gonzalez

Seventh Tier

62.	Matt Schaub – Please stay healthy and prove me right!
63.	Lee Evans
64.	Bernard Berrien – Brett at least gives Berrien more flavor.
65.	Matt Hasselbeck – Matt’s moving up my list.
66.	Santana Moss
67.	Braylon Edwards
68.	Jonathan Stewart – Many upside here.
69.	Jamal Lewis – His offense may be terrible, but his O-line is solid.
70.	Tim Hightower
71.	Carson Palmer – Hurt again?
72.	Lance Moore
73.	Beanie Wells
74.	Jay Cutler – Looked better than I thought he would, but still not top notch.
75.	Chris Cooley
76.	Matt Ryan – I’m not believing 25+ touchdowns in year 2.
77.	Brandon Marshall – I hear he’s having some problems.

Eighth Tier

78.	Leon Washington – I think he’ll be used more this season.
79.	Cedric Benson
80.	Willie Parker
81.	Hines Ward
82.	Owen Daniels
83.	Greg Olsen
84.	Santonio Holmes
85.	Jericho Cotchery
86.	Antonio Bryant
87.	Devin Hester – Hasn’t shown much in the pre-season, should change though.

Ninth Tier

88.	David Garrard
89.	Matt Cassel
90.	Kellen Winslow – has yet to catch a ball in the pre-season.
91.	Torry Holt
92.	Rashard Mendenhall
93.	Ben Roethlisberger
94.	Donald Brown
95.	Jerious Norwood – One of the best back-up backs in the league.
96.	Darren Sproles
97.	Ahmad Bradshaw – looks really good in the pre-season.
98.	John Carlson
99.	Kyle Orton
100.	Nate Burleson – people are forgetting about him, do.
101.	Donnie Avery – Should be healthy by week one, #1 receiver late.
102.	Derrick Mason – old and good, not unlike the guy right below.
103.	Donald Driver

Tenth Tier

104.	Trent Edwards – Like him with Lee and TO out wide.
105.	Fred Jackson
106.	Kevin Walter
107.	Brett Favre – Hmmm…. I wonder.
108.	Zach Miller
109.	Dominik Hixon
110.	Cadillac Williams – Looked good to me, hope he gets more touches.
111.	LeSean McCoy
112.	Nate Washington – Better than people know, hurt early, good late pick.
113.	Joe Flacco
114.	Josh Morgan
115.	Daunte Culpepper – If the job was his, guarantee, I’d rank him higher.
116.	Chad Pennington
117.	Jason Campbell
118.	Ted Ginn Jr. – Super fast WR coming into his own.
119.	Steve Breaston
120.	Chris Henry – Yes, the #3 is ranked higher than the #2.
121.	Vinsanthe Shiancoe
122.	Earnest Graham
123.	Laveranues Coles
124.	Percy Harvin
125.	Jabar Gaffney
126.	Michael Crabtree – This guy is a soap opera already.
127.	Tony Scheffler
128.	Dustin Keller
129.	Fred Taylor
130.	Kenny Britt – Moving on up, lots of talent.
131.	Kevin Curits – Not sure if his upside is high enough for me to get late.
132.	Correll Buckhalter
133.	Jake Delhomme
134.	Jeremy Shockey
135.	Willis McGahee
136.	Chester Taylor
137.	Michael Bush
138.	Shaun Hill
139.	Eli Manning
140.	James Davis
141.	Shonn Greene – Like his talent, just don’t like 3rd RBs too much.
142.	JaMarcus Russell – has looked solid so far this pre-season.
143.	Le’Ron McClain
144.	Sammy Morris
145.	Justin Forsett

Eleventh Tier

146.	Laurence Maroney
147.	Tashard Choice
148.	Marc Bulger
149.	Chaz Schillens – hurt early, but looks good to me.
150.	Patrick Crayton
151.	Michael Clayton
152.	Isaac Bruce
153.	Joey Galloway
154.	Mark Clayton
155.	Earl Bennett ¬– Not sure he is fast enough.
156.	Maurice Stovall – Could be in line for starting duties.
157.	Brady Quinn
158.	Bobby Engram
159.	Vernon Davis
160.	Mohammad Massoquoi
161.	Peyton Hillis
162.	Hakeem Nicks
163.	Jeremy Maclin – The speedster might be a nice second half pick-up.
164.	Mark Sanchez
165.	Glen Coffee
166.	Steve Smith (NYG)
167.	Chris Chambers
168.	Anthony Fasano
169.	Jamaal Charles
170.	Mike Bell
171.	Sidney Rice
172.	Edgerrin James
173.	Ricky Williams
174.	Troy Williamson – Has the speedster finally arrived?
175.	Deion Branch
176.	Justin Fargas
177.	Brandon Petitgrew
178.	Laurent Robinson – liked him better than Mike Jenkins in ATL too.
179.	Michael Jenkins
180.	Mushin Muhammad
181.	Kevin Boss
182.	Malcom Kelly
183.	Brent Celek
184.	David Clowney – Becoming number two?
185.	Mark Bradley
186.	Miles Austin
187.	Bo Scaife
188.	Ladell Betts
189.	JerMichael Finley
190.	Chris Brown – could be a TD stealer, but I doubt it.
191.	Devone Bess
192.	DeShawn Wynn
193.	Mike Walker
194.	James Jones
195.	Dominic Rhodes
196.	Pierre Garcon
197.	Jordy Nelson
198.	Michael Vick – In deep leagues, maybe?
199.	Limas Sweed – Nate Washington’s targets?
200.	Antwan Randel-El
201.	Deon Butler
202.	Kevin Jones
203.	Jonnie Lee Higgins
204.	Heath Miller
205.	Marion Manningham
206.	Robert Meachem
207.	Brian Robiskie
208.	Chase Coffman
209.	Todd Heap
210.	Brandon Jackson – Could be #2 still, had a tough camp.
211.	Byron Leftwich
212.	Matthew Stafford
213.	Kerry Collins
214.	Sage Rosenfels – So much for sleeper, thanks Brett!
215.	Matt Leinart
216.	Vince Young
217.	Chad Henne
218.	Samkon Gado
219.	Bernard Scott
220.	Tarvaris Jackson – Mr. Irrelevant could play well if he gets the chance.

2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

Posted on August 4, 2009 by luckylester

Running backs are the key to fantasy football. If you blow your first two picks on a receiver and a quarterback, you have to really luck out to find yourself in the playoffs come Week 14 (or where ever you start the post-season). The same can be said for blowing your first two picks, if your top two studs start slow or get hurt, you’ll find yourself in an early season hole. These tiered rankings should help you find value at the running back position throughout your draft.

Maurice Jones-Drew (1)
Matt Forte (2)
Adrian Peterson (3)
Michael Turner (4)

My first tier is bigger than most, with a different order than most. What can I say, it pays to be different. Almost every ranking I’ve seen has Peterson and Turner or Turner and Peterson cuddling up like puppies at the top of their player rankings. Not me, oh no, not I. Talent-wise, sure, Peterson takes the cake, but Percy Harvin only takes away from his touches, and the guy is going to take one to many hits one of these days. Production-wise, I see how he can go #1, but right in front of Turner at #3 is where I have AP. Turner was a stud last year and despite the high carry load in ’08, I predict his ’09 will be right in the top tier of backs. He doesn’t have too much wear on his tires, but his team has only gotten stronger in the talented weapon department. His back-up is talented, and added to one of the best young receivers in the game is probably the best receiving TE ever, Tony Gonzalez. Less touches for Turner means less fantasy production, but still plenty of action to be considered a top pick. With everyone’s Top 2 at 3 and 4 respectively, that means my top 2 looks a little different. Matt Forte busts in at 2 on my sheets, as he should be smiling from ear to ear at the addition of Jay Cutler. I don’t think Forte will catch as many passes as last season, Cutler’s not much of a dump down guy, but he will get a lot of carries, he will be playing against defenses that have to worry about the air attack, and thus his YPC will go from 3.9 to 4.4 – at least that’s what I’ve got. That moves his production up – and last year his production was consistent and legit. Forte will be great, but MJD will be better. That offensive line is healthy and stocked with more talent than it’s ever been. Jones Drew will aproach 18-20 carries a game, and that is what gets him to the top of my chart. He’s never been a high-touch back, but he’s always been a big time game breaker, touchdown maker, and fantasy producer. That’s a lot of ers, but they are all good. When you add 8-10 more touches a game to his talent, you get the best fantasy back in the league.

LaDainian Tomlinson (5)
Chris Johnson (6)
Steve Slaton (7)
Frank Gore (8)
Steven Jackson (9)
Brian Westbrook (10)

My 2nd tier is 2 backs heavier than my 1st, which means I have a lot of guys resting near the same value. Which means I’d rather be at the end of drafts, picking in the 8-12 slot – you’re guaranteed a good one, maybe not sexy, but sexy gets you money as a playboy model, not a spot in fantasy playoffs. LT gets the 5th spot on my list. Dude may be 30, but he’s one of the best backs of all time, and he’ll be a great option again this year. This might be the last year LT breaks my top 10, but I’d love to get him on my squad, especially where he’s going in most drafts (about 10th overall). Chris Johnson is a stud, and many have him pegged with more touches in 2009, but I’m not so sure. LenDale White is a productive big man, and he’s in as good a shape as he’s ever been in since somebody gave him his first twinky. People are stupid, they jump on the “fat” band wagon, but White is in good shape and will steal yards and touchdowns from the owners taking Chris Johnson in the Top 5. However, he’s still worth an early pick, and he has as much upside as anyone. He’s the Usain Bolt of running backs, on a different speed level than everyone else. Steve Slaton is a flat out stud on a team that will be one of the Top 10 offenses in 2009, and a lot of that has to do with his all around skill set. Great receiver, great runner inside, outside – he does it all. He may be small, but all he needs to do is stay healthy to easily be a top 10 back in his 2nd season. Gore is a great player on and offense that should be improved in ’09. It is also an offense that won’t go away from their main guy. If healthy, Gore is as talented as any back in the league, and with a new smash mouth approach, he’ll be a nice top 10 guy. Steven Jackson is a beast, and while I dig his talent, his offense is young and Marc Bulger is a sack artist – or at least a canvas for other sack artists. That won’t help the Rams stay in running situations. But Jackson might go back to his early years, and I expect his rushing yards to be easily over 1000 while his receiving yards get up to 600+ yards as well. Will the Rams be in touchdown position that often? That’s why he slips a bit. Brian Westbrook is old, yes, but he stays in my 2nd tier because all he does is produce. He was pretty inconsistent last season, despite his nice end-game numbers, most of his stats came in big chunks. Still, this offense only gets better with additions of young talent, and Westy should be back to his old tricks (even though his age is catching up to his injury history) and still deserves to be a Top 10 back.

III

DeAngelo Williams (11)
Marion Barber (12)
Kevin Smith (13)
Brandon Jacobs (14)
Clinton Portis (15)
Ronnie Brown (16)
Ryan Grant (17)

My 3rd tier has some stars from last year, yester year, and the future. DeAngelo Williams had a great year last season, better than any other back in the league, but Jonathan Stewart will stay healthy this year, and while that won’t make Williams a bum, it will keep him out of the Top 10. He’s a solid runner on a run-happy team, if he didn’t have one of the league’s most talented backs teaming up with him in the backfield then he’d easily bust into the Top 10. Marion Barber is a beast, one of my favorite backs in the league. He struggled as the Cowboys struggled last year, but before his injury he was a Top 5 back. This year he falls a bit because I can only imagine Felix Jones getting more carries, and even though Dallas will run more in ’09, Barber will be lucky to slip into the Top 10, but he’s still a solid #2 for your fantasy squad. Kevin Smith isn’t getting as much love as he deserves. Last year, on one of the worst teams in NFL history (worst record-wise) Kevin still rushed for just under 1000 yards and caught 39 passes as well. He’ll be a go to guy in this offense, an offense that is getting tougher up front. Brandon Jacobs is a beast, the scarriest guy to tackle in the NFL, but he’s a really big guy that runs fast, and that’s cause for concern (injury-wise and for defensive health). Jacobs will get his 100+ and a TD if he’s playing, that’s almost a given, but defenses will key in on him this coming season, and his health could easily have him missing the better part of 3-4 games. Still, with 12 games starting he’s a Top 15 player. He loses some in PPR leagues though. Clinton Portis is always good. He was a surprise fantasy all-star in the first half of last season, going for 940 yards and 7 TDs. He finished slow, like the Redskins, but still managed 1487 yards and 9 TDs and just over 1700 total yards for the season. He’s only 27 when the season starts. But he’s older than his age insists, and while I’d love to see him prove me wrong, it will be tough for him to duplicate last season’s stellar stats. He’s still a great #2 though. Ronnie Brown gets a lot of flak for getting most of his fantasy points in one week last season against New England. But I don’t worry about that. He’ll get more carries, more catches, and more touchdowns this season, and he’ll do it more consistently. A great all around back 2 years after knee surgery. Remember 2007 when he tore up the first half of the season? His numbers will be closer to that than last year’s totals. Ryan Grant is a beast. He started slow, hung on to a naggnig hammy injury, and got carries taken away from him during the first half. But this year his TDs will double, and he’ll run more efficiently. He runs down hill really hard, expect better things from him – I do.

Larry Johnson (18)
Darren McFadden (19)
Knowshon Moreno (20)
Derrick Ward (21)
Marshawn Lynch (22)
Jonathan Stewart (23)

I might rank LJ higher than everyone else. I guess I remember the guy that buried opposing defenders when they got in his way. He was a beast teaming up with Preist Holmes, and he was even better when he got the #1 gig a year later. Some stuff has happened, he was carrying a lot of baggage, and he didn’t get many carries last season. It won’t take the new coach long to realize that he’s a top option on the team, and he’ll get back to scoring touchdowns and getting 20 touches a game. McFadden is too talented to struggle again. Last season was last season, you can’t always rely on what happened last year when drafting your team. Take a chance on a kid with all the talent in the world on a team that is gung-ho about getting him the ball – even if they are a semi-pro franchise. Knowshon may be a rookie, and he may be in the same scheme that never produced a Top 20 fantasy back in New England, but he does it all. He may not have the best 40, but there’s players that get it, run well in pads, and go fast enough to win – that’s Moreno, he’ll show it in his rookie season. Derrick Ward is a very good runner that can do all the little things. I honestly think he’s a better back than Jacobs, because he can catch too. I expect him to get most of the looks in Tampa, and that line is better than many people think. Marshawn Lynch will only play 13 games – but so what, so will a lot of running backs this season. You’ll be able to get him late for missing the first three games. Do it. Then even later pick up Fred Jackson, now you have a starting back, a good one, for two later picks. Lynch doesn’t get huge numbers, but he always gets solid stats, that helps your squad win every week. Jonathan Stewart, in my cocky opinion, is the best running back on this list, but he’s got a great back he’s sharing time with. Still, if Williams and Stewart are more even this season, splitting stats 50-50, that still makes for over 1170 yards and 14 touchdowns for J-Stew – that’s good production where he’s being drafted. Plus his upside is unlimited.

Pierre Thomas (24)
Reggie Bush (25)
Joseph Addai (26)
LenDale White (27)
Ray Rice (28)
Felix Jones (29)
Beanie Wells (30)
Thomas Jones (31)
Julius Jones (32)
Willie Parker (33)
Cedric Benson (34)

Pierre Thomas would be ranked higher if I thought his coach would do anything right. The kid is talented, always has been, always produces when given the chance, and was the best back in NO last season. That being said, that clown in a man-suit running the Saints isn’t to be trusted, but Pierre is still Top 20. Even if he runs less, Bush is still a great receiver out of the backfield, and was having a pretty damn good fantasy season before an injury derailed his year. The Clown loves him, so he’ll get his touches. Bush is still magic with the football when he’s in space, he’s worth a pick in the 6th or 7th, where he’s being drafted. Addai might be good again this year, you never know, but it doesn’t seem like the Colts trust him much. That’s not a franchise that wastes early picks, and them taking a great all around college back in the 1st round doesn’t bread confidence in Addai. Still, Joseph is young and he’s had a couple pretty good years in a pretty potent offense – sounds like a buy low candidate to me. LenDale White can’t find love anywhere but here. You might think I just like fat running backs, but if you think LenDale is just a fat guy then you are an idiot. The guy can run the ball, always has been able to, and gets in the end-zone. This year he lost 20 lbs in the summer, and he’s in better shape than anytime in his career. Everyone can hate him, I’ll “round” off my Top 20 with his name. Ray Rice is in an interesting situation. The Ravens have put him as the #1, but you could argue that Le’Ron and Willis have shown better skills than Rice. Still, the Ravens see something, and they can pound the rock. Ray can compile the yards as a smart runner, a pretty good style for the Ravens offensive scheme. Felix Jones is amazing. If he stays healthy and gets the touches Dallas wants him to get, even this will be too low for his total output. But he’s a little-ish guy, and he has been hurt a few times. He’ll get a lot of TO’s touches though, so he’s definitely flex-worthy. Beanie Wells gets here on talent alone. He’s really big and really fast, which like I’ve said, is a recipe for injury. Still, he gets into a pretty nice offensive situation and should be able to beat out Hightower and his 2.8 YPC. Beanie is talented. Julius Jones might be an after-thought to everyone, but look at his stats, if you give him the ball 20 times he will do work for you. It happened in Dallas, and last year Seattle, and before both of those in Notre Dame. Julius is the unquestioned started in Seattle, and could prove to be a nice #2 for fantasy owners that take a chance on him. Willie Parker just keeps doing work. He won the job from Rashard Mendenhall (who I think is the better running in Pitt) last season, and put up pretty mediocre numbers while missing 5 games. His totals still project like a Top 25 back over 16 games, but I don’t think he’ll be the guy getting 20 carries next year, Rashard ruins some of Willie’s value. Cedric Benson is a nice story. He never figured it out in Chicago, but he found a home in Cincinnati last year, and cleaned up his act. That’s not how it usually goes, but give the guy two stars for swimming against the flow. Benson could benefit from Palmer being back in Tiger stripes, as his YPC and touchdown chances should go up this season.

Rashard Mendenhall (35)
Jamal Lewis (36)
Donald Brown (37)
Darren Sproles (38)

Backups and Jamal Lewis. Lewis still isn’t “old” but he is old. Age doesn’t tell the whole story, but the guy has many miles on his tires. Still, Mangini has a decent offensive line in Cleveland, and Lewis is the guy that should get the ball. Not much to be scared of from Cleveland’s offense, unless they revert back to 2007, but Lewis should still be able to get over 1000 and 6 touchdowns as the #1 in Ohio. Mendenhall, who I have ranked just ahead of Lewis, is super talented. I thought him and J-Stew were the best backs in last year’s rookie class. He got hurt early, and couldn’t unseat Willie Parker prior to that, but he looked solid against one of the league’s best defenses (Baltimore) before they knocked him out for the year. Plus I really like him. If he gets the carries, he’ll be an epic steal on draft day. Donald Brown looks like a pro back to me, a solid one. Joseph Addai has never really impressed me as a runner. He’s still a rookie and he’s still a back-up, but you never know, and I’d like to have this guy just in case. Darren Sproles might have a case for being the more productive back in San Diego late last year. He certainly did more with his opportunity, and made himself a lot of money in the process. He’s still a back-up this season, and LT does it all, but Sproles might get enough love to be ownable all year long, as a back-up/flex – not just an injury replacement. Those are the best kinds of back-ups to own.

VII

Fred Jackson (39)
Leon Washington (40)
Jerious Norwood (41)

Fred Jackson has done pretty good work when given the chance in Buffalo. This season he’ll get 3 games as the starter for the Bills, and if he succeeds in those 3 games, I don’t think the Bills can continue to give Lynch 85% of the carries. Jackson is a great late pick-up that could be a starting RB the first few weeks – plus he has nice upside. Leon Washington is obviously the back the Jets value more than any other. But Thomas Jones was a Top 10 fantasy back last season. It will be interesting to see what kind of touches Washington gets this year, but I’m guessing it’s more than he got last season. He’s always done well when give the chance, the problem is, this late, what kind of chance will he get? He’s a lot like Sproles, but Washington has a rookie QB or Kellen Clemmens as his signal caller – hello 8 man fronts. Jerious Norwood, a YPC machine and a guy that can take it the distance any time. He’s a great hand-cuff for Turner owners because he’s startable even as a back-up. I wouldn’t want in my starting line-up every week, but last year I was happy to have him on more than a couple occasions.

VIII

Tim Hightower (42)
Chester Taylor (43)
LeSean McCoy (44)
Ahmad Bradshaw (45)
Willis McGahee (46)
Le’Ron McClain (47)
Fred Taylor (48)
Sammy Morris (49)
Michael Bush (50)
Laurence Maroney (51)
Shonn Greene (52)
Justin Fargas (53)
Ricky Williams (54)

Alright, this is my last list, and I’m putting them all in the same tier because I’m not so sure that I would be excited on having any of these guys on my team. Maybe the upside of McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw’s chance at sure thing numbers when Jacobs gets hurt, Chester Taylor because he’s a very good back with a good O-line, even though he’s stuck behind one of the most physically talented backs in a long time, if not ever, and Tim Hightower, becaue there’s a good chance he’ll start. So maybe those four guys should all be in a different tier, but I have to be honest, they’re upside might not match up with the opportunity some of these guys will get. Willis still has talent, if he wasn’t in a little dog house behind two other backs, McClain does well with his touches, but doesn’t get much guaranteed to him. Fred Taylor has always put up numbers and might, just might be the #1 in New England, but that’s a team that I can’t predict carries for, so I wouldn’t want to rely on him. Sammy Morris, same thing as Fred. Plus Laurence Maroney is the guy I think is most talented. Michael Bush has all the tools and is a beast, but he’s behind a first round pick who has better tools, and another guy that has been productive as a starter, Justin Fargas. Shonn Greene is a rookie, and will probably be the thunder to Leon’s lightning next season, but I wouldn’t expect a ton from him this year. And then there’s Ricky Williams, what’s a running back list without Ricky? I think Ronnie Brown should get an even bigger portion of the load this coming season, really limiting Ricky’s stock.

That’s the list, hop that helps!

Dynasty/Keeper Rankings TOP 112: 2009 Fantasy Football

Posted on April 2, 2009 by luckylester

Its quite unlike me to do a fantasy football rankings article toward the end of March, close enough to the draft that I should be focussed solely on the new cats entering the league, but unable to really include them because of the reality that their new uniforms have yet to be selected, and thus their bright future yet to be predicted. But this is going to be different.

There have been a number of emails asking me to do a fantasy article ranking players in a Dynasty League format. Dynasty leagues are those in which you keep all of the players that you draft, therefor taking ages, contracts, and their long term future more into account than in your yearly re-draft leagues or even leagues with a small number of keepers (1-3). Re-drafts in a dynasty format are often just rookie/free agent drafts and the veteren players only change teams if moved by their respective owner, either to the waiver wire or through a trade. This format has become more and more popular as it gives fantasy owners the feeling of team ownership, building from the ground up, often choosing to decide between winning now or building for later. It also gives losing teams something to look forward to, or the ability to trade crafty veterans for youth moving forward. It’s a whole new fantasy world, no doubt about it. You’re looking for solid production for at least 3 seasons – that allows you to continue to build through drafts and win now.

In many dynasty leagues that are starting this season, there will be a veteran draft in a snake format followed by a rookie draft in the opposite snake format. 1-12 and back for one, then 12-1 and back for the next. It evens out the board a bit, giving the teams drafting late a chance to make up for their lack of Top-5 power and take a blue-chip rookie going forward. But we’ll talk about rookies in the next few months, and closer to the start of the 2009 season.

I am ranking these players based on a format that starts this lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D. That format gives wide receivers a little added value based on the fact that you start 3 of them compared to just 2 RBs. Also, the point system is a PPR (point per reception) format, which many leagues have moved to. That also gives WRs a little added bonus, the same goes for pass catching running backs. QBs get 6 points for touchdowns just like everyone else, and other than that, the scoring is very normal. Under this scoring format last season, the top 4 point scoring options were Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Kurt Warner – in that order. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were the only non-quarterbacks in the Top 8, and DeAngelo Williams finished with 6 more points than Matt Forte to take the running back title. That doesn’t mean QBs hold more value than RBs, same with WRs, but it does put points into perspective a little bit.

I won’t be ranking D’s or K’s because I don’t care enough to do it. Also there’s some clutter in the middle a bit, that I argued with myself about a lot, but that’s the order I went with and I’ll own it. Throw in a comment (or email my uncle -papaweimer50@hotmail.com, i pretty much run his old pathetic life anyway – haha) and let me know what you think. Can’t fit them all in 112 spots…

Without further jib-jab and point scoring hog-wash, these are my 2009 dynasty fantasy rankings pre-draft. This is, more or less, how I think they’ll rate out over the next three seasons combined.

Maurice Jones-Drew (absolute stud, and will get more carries and touches this season, just like Josh said, this guy’s point per touch numbers are absurd)
Adrian Peterson (most people’s number one, should have his best year next season)
Matt Forte (lots of touches for Matt, especially through the air, great feet for a big guy)
Chris Johnson (Some people thought he was too small, the Titans didn’t, they win)
Michael Turner (Justifiably some say he’s #1, his age and full load drop him a few spots in my Dynasty rankings)
Steven Jackson (still very young and very talented – not much help in St. Louis, but the talent is there)
Larry Fitzgerald (this guy is basically unstoppable)
DeAngelo Williams (I’ve always liked his running style, and despite the great back-up behind him, he still ranks high)
Andre Johnson (the only other non RB in my Top 10, AJ big brother’s DBs all year long)
Marion Barber (he’s not going to get picked this high in drafts, but a return to prominence for MBIII is almost a guarantee)
Calvin Johnson (if he were on a better team, this guy would be fighting Fitz, still his per touch numbers are awesome and he’s only getting better as that terrible Lions team improves – if Cutler goes there, watch out)
Frank Gore (always one of my favorites, the center point of a run first offense, talent high, but injuries keep him out of the Top 10)
Greg Jennings (young, strong, great young QB, the more touches he gets the better)
Steve Slaton (some people see Slaton as a 3rd Down back, too small, but he’ll always be better than Fragile Reggie)
Brandon Jacobs (Jacobs runs too hard to stay injury free, despite being the size of a D-end, but while he’s in he’s good for 100 yards and a TD – plus he’s young)
Reggie Bush (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be lower, still in a PPR league he’s a solid play 20th RB last season missing 6+ games – + meaning he missed most of a couple other games)
Roddy White (Roddy deserves more credit – he’s a stud – a go to guy for a great young QB on an improving team)
Anquan Boldin (a couple donkeys say Boldin isn’t a #1, haha, I hope he goes somewhere else and proves everyone wrong)
Steve Smith (His age – and physicality – drops him a bit, but he’s that close to Roddy and ‘Quan – and as fun to watch as anyone in the league – look how good he makes Delhomme look sometimes)
Phillip Rivers (So what if he throws marshmallows, his team is turning pass happy, plays in a terrible division, and is just 27 years old – he’ll toss 40 TDs one of these years – and we’re the exact same age, to the day – it’s fate! ha)
Marques Colston (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be higher)
Kevin Smith (He won’t go this high, I promise, but invest now and you’ll reap the benefits of this talented back later)
Brandon Marshall (If it weren’t for his ability to “find himself in bad situations” – hide and seek champ – he’d rank higher)
Clinton Portis (Clinton will be 28 in September, going on 32 – I love the guy’s fight, but that drops the talented back into the 20s)
Drew Brees (This guy plays tricks on defenses – the only problem is that I don’t know how much longer that idiot running this team will have a head coaching job, and another guy would surely run a more conservative and smarter offense)
Ryan Grant (He may have struggled a bit last season, but he’s young and this offense will get better and rely on him more heavily next season)
Joseph Addai (I can’t quite give up on Addai yet, but he’s never really impressed me as a runner. He’s thrown up some solid stat lines, but aside from pure numbers he doesn’t impress me as much as he does others)
Peyton Manning (Elder Manning is 33, but still has a handful of good years left in him – but he’ll be 36 in 3 years, and you never know how age, and a new coach, will change a guy)
Ronnie Brown (Ronnie will go under the radar in drafts, and this might even be a little low for one of the best all around backs in the league)
Tony Romo (I might take Romo over Manning, but I wonder the impact of losing TO and how it will effect Tony, still a top flight QB though, and young)
Tom Brady (Nobody does it like Tom – but his knee still has questions, and this team can’t be young forever)
Reggie Wayne (he’s actually getting up there in age a bit, 31 or so, he’ll have a couple real good years, then start to die off, which is why he falls a bit now)
Dwayne Bowe (Dwayne Bowe, watch Anquan Boldin films, that’s going to be you in a year or two – Bowe could break into the Top 10 this year)
Aaron Rodgers (Explosive young arm with a great receiving corps and an improving offense – only his second year – could be great)
Darren McFadden (I don’t care what people say, this is probably too low – still, I can’t put a Raider higher than Bo Jackson’s old number – Bo knows Al Davis is a team killing psycho path!)
Eddie Royal (this looks like a reach now, but he’s like Wes Welker with elite speed and great maneuverability)
Matt Ryan (this may be a reach, but I’m ranking for the next 3 years, and I’d love to have Matty Ice when he matures)
Randy Moss (Randy’s old, but still basically unguardable with Tom Brady hucking footballs – only a couple real good years left though which drops him a bit)
Marshawn Lynch (Obviously keep an eye on his situation, the kid will be suspended, and has been a question mark since draft day – on the football field he’s a great RB option)
Braylon Edwards (very good player when he’s on, yet quite drop-happy and not as physical as his body – should be much better than he was last season, and still very young – doesn’t have great speed though)
Derrick Ward (Could be an interesting time share in Tampa, but they brought Ward in to be the guy, and though he’s never been a beacon of health, he’s a very physical runner with good vision, and this O-line is underrated – he’s a young 29 though)
Jonathan Stewart (Might seem ridiculous, but I’d rather have JS than Westbrook or LT, and this guy’s a backup)
Brian Westbrook (This is where age shows it’s ugly face a bit, Westy might be a Top 5 guy this coming season but he’ll be 30 during this year and has always had health issues – still a great player though, just don’t overbid in Dynasty Leagues)
LaDainian Tomlinson (I think LT has at least one really good season left in him, remember Michael Turner just had an unreal season while LT really struggled – and by the way, they were only 7 fantasy point apart – LT still has it, for at least another year)
Vincent Jackson (Now’s the time, before Phillip uses Jackson as his number one for a full season)
Jason Witten (I don’t think much of TEs, but Witten is the #1 in Dallas, don’t be confused by Jerry telling you it’s Roy Williams – oh, and Witten is a flat out stud)
TJ Houshmanzadeh (it’s unbelievable how solid his numbers were last year despite being forked in one of the worst offenses in football – he’s perfect for the Seahawks and unless he’s cursed with injuries like all Hawks’ receivers, he should be solid – but he’s 32 this season – which drops him a bit)
Carson Palmer (remember when he was in the Peyton, Tom, and Drew draft area? Well, he’ll get back there – this guy has all the tools – probably a good time to invest)
Wes Welker (he might not be flashy, but he’s a PPR dynamo and very good at what he does, not PPR, not as good)
Matt Cassel (risky? maybe – but I’ll risk it on a leader I really like on a team with talent to catch passes and a new offensive genius as his head coach – not as risky as it may sound as I agree with McDaniels, I’d rather have Cassel than Cutler)
Jay Cutler (Jay might have been higher before he pouted his way out of Denver, I’m just not impressed with grown men acting like entitled little bitches, what can I say – still, he’s a great talent with a rocket arm)
Willis McGahee (sometimes sportswriters take chances, I’m taking one on a guy I don’t like all that much, I’m saying Willis turns it around and finishes well above this ranking – still, the risk brings him down a bit)
Matt Schaub (this is the season for Matt to lead his team to the playoffs and stay injury free, just that alone will put him in the Top 10 QBs)
Antonio Gates (Gates is moving fast toward 30, and his hoops background is rearing it’s ugly head – for those of you in fantasy basketball, you know exactly what I mean – still, he’s a touchdown machine and Rivers knows it)
Ben Roethlisberger (Big Ben will be better this season, he just needs to stay healthier, and improved line will help that)
DeSean Jackson (I like him a lot, and think he’ll be a very good one in Philly, despite his tiny frame)
Felix Jones (something tells me he’ll get used more this season, now might be a good time to get this speedy young runner)
Santonio Holmes (interesting cat, but very, very good – should see more balls, but don’t overpay for Super Bowl glory)
Donovan McNabb (Right above TO, planned that – McNabb will be an old 33 this season, and with no sure contract situation and last years’ struggles, I can’t guarantee anything form Donovan, except that he’s one of the best QBs in the league on a pretty damn good football team)
Terrell Owens (A one year contract interests me always, but he’ll likely never get a longer one, still – one of the best WRs playing every single season for next year’s contract – I’ll take a chance on him, even in Buffalo – he’s older, no doubt, but in pretty good shape anyway)
Lee Evans (Despite Edwards’ struggles, I still think he’ll be solid – add TO as a guy to take some pressure off Evans and I think Lee has a nice year – even if TO leaves next season, Evans will still be an elite talent)
Eli Manning (I hate to do it, but I had to include Pouty-face in here somewhere, it’s personal, so he might be better than this)
Santana Moss (In the 2nd season of Zorn’s system, this whole offense will move more efficiently, and Moss will benefit – turns 30 this year, but WRs should go worry free until 33 or so)
Roy Williams (he’s young, has had a couple really good seasons, is the #1 in Dallas on a solid offensive team with a very good young quarterback – hell, this is too low – but there’s obviously some risk here, a guy with more ballsy would put him at 44)
Antonio Bryant (I just can’t be sure about Bryant – what a great finish, scoring more points over the last 10 games than any receiver in football, that has to be worth something – he’s this far down because, well, he was out of football the year before last, can’t ignore that really)
Bernard Berrian (steal on draft day I think – probably should rank him a little higher, I actually like Sage throwing him the ball)
Anthony Gonzalez (something tells me that Anthony will see a lot of balls over the next 3 years, and very well could rate out higher than this)
Donnie Avery (there’s no doubt in my mind that this kid will be the #1 in St. Louis next season, great upside there, but this team should struggle for a couple years at least – still, better to risk on upside)
Chad Ocho-Cinco (you’ll be able to get him cheap, he’s getting older, he says one thing and does another and he changed his name to a fake spanish number – all that being said, he’s still #85 and gets his QB back this season)
Jericho Cotchery (do I like Cotchery? you bet – do I like Kellen Clemmens? not a chance – but Cotchery is still a nice receiver and should average 80 grabs over the next 3 years, so this might be low for him – not great upside here though)
Joe Flacco (Maybe he should go higher than this, his future is bright, that’s for sure. Still, Mason is aging and I’m not sure there’s another great offensive player on that roster)
David Garrard (I still don’t see any receiving help for this poor guy, but his O-line should be way better this season – and despite what people think, he was pretty decent as a starting option last year – 12th overall)
Rashard Mendenhall (he’ll go really late in drafts this year, what a time to get him, I still think he’s right there – talentwise – with anybody else from last year’s super talented class, this is too low, but he’s still risky)
Domenik Hixon (he might not be a #1, and I doubt the Giants will let that happen, but I like this kid as a solid HR threat #2 and I expect him to play a nice roll in NY over the next couple years – I like him more than the other WRs on that roster)
Matt Hasselbeck (how many years does Matty have left? his back might have a better answer than me – but he’ll be solid as long as he’s still around – the Hawks offense will be much improved this season)
Deion Branch (good player, injury troubles have held him back, and he’s not a #1, but now he doesn’t have to be, and he’s still young enough to be good in the Hawks passing attack)
Pierre Thomas (if I trusted Sean Payton, he’d be a heck of a lot higher – if he ever moves teams, he shoots way up the chart)
Leon Washington (he’s talented enough to take a chance, but I don’t know if his coaches will give him the #1 job, and Thomas Jones was successful last season – still, this young offensive line is talented and getting better, and Washington has at least as much upside as Darren Sproles)
Fred Jackson (Fred is a very good player that will probably get lots of time with Marshawn doing dumb things, a little risk could go along way with this kid)
Thomas Jones (Yeah, I ranked his back-up ahead of him, so what – Jones is aging and while I still like him, he’s not really impressing the new staff with his hold-out threats)
Tony Gonzalez (he may have a couple more years, but he’s in as good a shape as most 25 year olds, and even if he plays just 2 more he’ll rank out higher than most 3 year TEs)
Dallas Clark (he’ll be one of Peyton’s top targets with Marvin gone, and he’s a pretty sure thing to be in the Top 5 over the next few years)
Kellen Winslow (I like him better than Dallas Clark, but it’s very close, and Dallas has the QB advantage and health on his side, so Kellen moves behind him)
Lance Moore (if I trusted Sean Payton, Lance wouldn’t be this high)
Hines Ward (all he does is do the same good things year after year after year, consistently from game to game, and he’ll always be underrated – even though he’s 33 and plays a more physical football than most receivers, aging him faster perhaps, still, this is probably too low for a sure thing)
Steve Breaston (he’ll be a #2 somewhere, if not in Arizona next season, then sometime soon down the line, he’s good enough to hold on to)
Ted Ginn Jr. (could be a very good WR, he showed flashes last season, but there’s still enough question to keep him behind a lot of receivers)
Chris Cooley (what a character – Cooley is a top notch receiver that should be even better in his 2nd season in this system)
Sage Rosenfels (I think he’ll be good – that’s right, will probably draft him in more than a few leagues as my back-up – lots of risk here, but lots of upside too)
John Carlson (His rookie year was a big success, he blocks well so he’ll always be on the field which makes him a solid red-zone touchdown target)
Dustin Keller (probably a better receiver than Carlson, but not as physical and not as good of a QB, still this kid’s upside has a higher ceiling than JC’s)
Trent Edwards (It’s tough to say, but I like Trent and think his sophomore slump will be exactly that – something you look back at and say, that was an aberration and this kid is going to be good – still, anybody in charge of Buff’s offense has risk)
Chris Chambers (I wonder what happend last season – Chris played in every game and had just 33 grabs for 462 yards and 5 scores – I’m willing to bet he improves those numbers next season, he’s only 31 this season, but just incase, he’s not ranked high enough to get a bunch of crap for)
Brady Quinn (here’s to hoping he goes to Denver and succeeds – still, I’ve never been sold on Brady)
Mark Clayton (the former first round pick had a nice thing going with Flacco, his second 7 games were worth 31 fantasy points – his last 9 were good for 110)
Torry Holt (we’ll see where he signs, he’s aging for sure, but I’m not ready to believe he’s done, he’s always open)
Owen Daniels (not much not to like about this kid, except that he’s a TE – still, he’s very consistent which is rare for TEs not named Gonzo, Witten, Clark, and Gates)
Donald Driver (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
Derrick Mason (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
Jason Campbell (probably shouldn’t be this low, but after the first 12-15 QBs, what can you do, i wouldn’t mind having him to be a back-up on my squad over the next few seasons)
Michael Clayton (maybe this is nuts, but with Gruden gone I think Clayton’s not so “puckered up” as he was over the last few years, and the kid has enough talent to succeed)
Josh Morgan (talented enough to do it, offensive passing attack a question in San Fran, still, I like this kid a lot)
Kevin Walter (effective, but a white wide receiver nonetheless, sorry if I can’t believe)
Miles Austin (I have to think he’ll get enough looks to be fantasy worthy, and his upside is greater than Patrick Crayton’s)
James Jones (I’ve always liked him a ton, he fell behind a little bit last season, but he’ll be a nice #2 in this league some time over the next 3 seasons)
Jeremy Shockey (gotta wonder about this werid-o, never been a fan, but if he stays healthy, and out of the dog house, he’s talented enough)
Zach Miller (good young red zone target, if the Raiders ever get there he’ll be a solid option)
Laurence Maroney (worth a pick late in dynasty leagues, I have always loved his talent but he can’t stay on the field and his HC isn’t a huge fan)
Chad Pennington (he needed to go on the list, I just don’t think he has more than one season as a starter)
JaMarcus Russell (you have to feel bad for a kid that gets stuck in Oakland – I believe JaMarcus!)
Plaxico Burress (I think Plax was/is stupid – no doubt about that – however, mando-mins are the stupidest thing ever and should be abolished – he’s a super talented cat, but prison time is on the horizon which means his career could be shut down)
Michael Vick (Yeah, he’s on the list, he’s an athletic freak and he did his time – get the hell over it – I’m a dog lover and after a guy spends time in jail for what he did, has to start his life and career over, I’m going to wish him the best)

theRUNDOWN: Week 6

Posted on October 6, 2008 by Papa Weimer

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Here’s Week 6’s action…

QB: Tony Romo vs. Arizona: Here’s the deal, teams haven’t been able to run against the Cardinals, so I see no reason that Romo won’t have a huge day. It should be a shootout, this game, or at least one that prompts a few pass attempts from the Dallas boys. I like Tony’s chances of 3-4 touchdown passes. Brett Favre against the Cardinals? Remember?

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: Matt Forte didn’t kill the Lions defense like I thought he would, but I’ll give them a second shot. Certainly this beast of a man can give Detroit the old one-two punch, uppercut, jab, jab, home run, yhatzee, 200 yards and a couple touchdown dance.

RB: Matt Forte vs. Atlanta: I like Forte a lot, even in a bad week against the Lions, Forte still scored twice and put in work during a Bears route. I’m willing to bet he comes out and plays well against the Falcons.

FLEX: Ronnie Brown: I’ve always liked Ronnie, and while Houston hasn’t put up terrible rushing defense numbers, I just get the feeling that Miami is giving Ronnie 25-30 chances to make point scoring plays. The ball in his hands means good things, and against Houston he’s bound to break a couple.

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Seattle: The Hawks are lost, no doubt in my mind. Greg Jennings gets the ball a lot, and he is a beast when running after the catch. The Hawks are pretty trustworthy in that they allow big plays, you can trust them to do so. Lots of reasons to like Greg here.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Arizona: See Tony Romo, above.

TE: Jason Witten vs. Cincinnati: See Tony Romo, above.

K: Josh Scobee vs. Denver: The Broncos defense allows lots of offense. They are coming off a week where they actually played alright, so that’s unlikely to carry over to this week’s game. This one is in Denver, so long kicks are even more likely. This one has to be a good one, despite my kicking hex.

D: New York Giants vs. Cleveland: The Giants are legit. I thought they’d struggle, I was wrong. Their defense gets the J.O.B done. I like them against and underwhelming Browns team.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Jason Campbell: The Rams will pay all their attention to Portis, and respectably so. Unfortunately, that just means campbell will have to torture them. I think Jason is a nice play this week, he’ll finish in the Top 12.

David Garrard: Garrard hasn’t been the same accurate, problem free signal caller he was last year. But he’ll get back into the swing of things. He gets to throw it around on Denver’s secondary, so like I said, brighter days are soon to come.

Gus Frerotte: Still a nice option. 2nd week in a row.

Fred Taylor: I bet Fred scores his first touchdown and gets over 100 yards. He’s been a bad option thus far, sans one solid week, but Fred won’t be scoreless after Sunday’s tilt with Denver.

Willis McGahee: I like Willis’s chances to get his highest total of carries on the season, and while getting all those looks he’ll do his best work of the season as well. So far he’s been a terrible option, but he’ll pull it together against a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense.

Brandon Jackson: He’s a big chance, for sure, but the Packers might have to give him 14-16 carries right? With Grant struggling and Rodgers on the pine, I think Jackson is a big sleeper this week against the Falcons front 7.

Lance Moore: Against Oakland Moore might find more room to roam. Whew, tough one. No, but honestly, despite some alliteration excitement, Lance looks like a pretty solid play against the Raiders.

Steve Breaston: Boldin might be back, but Breaston has done enough to gain Warner’s confidence, and the former grocery bagger (Warner) has shown an affinity for getting the ball to 3rd wide receivers, so either way, he’ll be a decent option as a sleeper this week again.

Devin Hester: Hester has found the end-zone a couple times, and I still think he reaches the 10 or more scores I expect him to tally. Atlanta’s a good place to find one or two of those. As a waiver wire guy, you could have a nice bye week option here.

Greg Olsen: This young TE is a nice sleeper with Kyle Orton getting his wings recently – against Atlanta’s secondary he could be a nice waiver wire pick up with nice future upside.

Washington Redskins: Why? Because until the Rams prove they aren’t the worst team I’ve ever seen, it’s sleeper defense every week time.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

J.T. O’Sullivan: Martz always has his quarterbacks throwing lots of touchdowns and turning the ball over just about as often. Against Philly it will be more turnover than TD, and that’s why I wouldn’t follow O’Sullivan to the well this week.

Edgerrin James: James had a touchdown last week against Buffalo, and has solid numbers on the season, but he won’t be doing much in terms of fantasy production against the Cowboys. Sit him.

Jamal Lewis: Back off his bye, I still don’t like Lewis as a start this week. Until New York allows some offensive action, I’m staying away from middle of the road fantasy runners against them. Just like Julius Jones last week, Jamal isn’t the best option in Week 6.

Steve Smith: I would start Steve Smith almost every single week, because you never know when he’s going to break one and take it 80 yards. However, this seems like a down week for Steve, and if you have the balls, and a decent back-up, I’d leave Steve on the bench.

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 2

Posted on September 19, 2008 by Papa Weimer

Couldn’t even break 100… Got crushed by a couple guys and finished with 95 points. This was the damage!

QB: Peyton Manning vs. Minnesota: 311 yards, sure, but his 1 touchdown and 2 picks didn’t help me much. Peyton was only good for 14 fantasy points.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver: 10 carries for 26 yards, 2 catches for 12? Oh no you didn’t LT. This point total bruises my soul, 5 fantasy points for the king. His toe injury hurt him, but his stat line killed me.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Indianapolis: Without scoring a touchdown, Peterson still finished tied for 4th amongst running backs with 22 fantasy points – he now leads the league in rushing yards.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Jets: 2 catches for 22 yards. Dang it! I was brutal a couple times this week.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Minnesota: 20 fantasy points, good for 10th amongst receivers.

TE: Heath Miller vs. Cleveland: 5 fantasy points – should have taken Scheffler (24 fantasy points) should have done a lot in all these years, this wasn’t my worst decision.

K: Rod Bironas vs. Cincinnati: 6 points- 1 field goal, 3 extra points – actually a good day for my kickers – still, not great considering all the options (30).

D: Giants vs. St. Louis: 19 fantasy points, good for 3rd amongst defenses – solid pick. That’s what 6 sacks and 1 interception return for a touchdown will do for ya.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

JaMarcus Russell: “220+ and 2 scores… Doubt me? We’ll see who is right.” Oh dang it! My foot tastes so bad after walking around bare-foot all weekend. 2 freaking fantasy points – doubters, you got me on this one! F

Aaron Rodgers: 4th amongst quarterbacks after throwing 3 touchdown passes against the Lions. He now has accounted for 5 touchdowns and zero turnovers in two games. A+

Chris Johnson: Gathered over 100 yards this week, 2 catches for 12 yards as well. He’s legit. B

Julius Jones: 4th overall running back in Week 2 – A+ for me on that one.

Laurence Maroney: Maroney looked off before an injury took him out of the game. Maybe I’m just wrong about this kid? F

Antwaan Randel El: 4 catches for 53 yards, looks like Jason Campbell figured out who to give more looks to last week (see Santana Moss’s totals in your fantasy league). D+

Anthony Gonzalez: Great day for Gonzo – those that played him reaped the benefits – 22 fantasy points good for 7th amongst wide receivers… Has he taken over Marvin’s spot as the #2? A+

Robert Meachem: He only had 1 catch for 19 yards, but that one was a touchdown. He’ll turn up the heat, still, 8 fantasy points didn’t kill anyone. C-

Dustin Keller: 1 catch for 19 yards… ugh… F

Cardinals: Just 12 fantasy points, they allowed less than two touchdowns for the 2nd straight week, but just 2 sacks limited their fantasy potential. Still, not bad. B

Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Chris Perry: Perry actually had a pretty nice day considering. He played against the Titans, and the Benglas passing attack as sucked. He managed 64 rushing yards and a touchdown. I’ll say I was wrong here.

Steven Jackson: Jackson had 13 carries for 53 yards and 7 catches for 37 yards. No scores. 8 fantasy points in a non PPR – 15 in a PPR. Exactly what I expected, sit him if you had better options.

Chris Chambers: 13th overall in fantasy last week – tricked me good. This one was a failure.

Devery Henderson: 2 fantasy points – right on the number with this one.

theRUNDOWN: Week 2

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Papa Weimer

It’s Week 2, but don’t be caught up in the fantasy rush. This week there are some nice sleeper picks getting kicked off fantasy teams as we speak. We have two Monday Night games for the 2nd week in a row, and I can’t be more excited about the recent cast-offs littering my rosters. Here are my best, sneakiest, and worst plays of the week – enjoy!

QB: Peyton Manning vs. Minnesota: Ideally you want a quarterback to be very good, playing against a week secondary, but also going up against an offense that can put points on the board. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that his rushing attack will likely struggle. This is the case in Minnesota this weekend – the Manning show will be in full effect.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Denver: Thanks for this. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers won’t abandon the run, and LT will put up ridiculous points against the Broncos.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Indianapolis: Think the Colts were worried about Kyle Orton last week? Nope. Did it stop rookie Matt Forte from running all over the Colts defense? Nope. Think AP will have a week to remember in his home opener this season? I sure do.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Jets: I think Randy steps up huge now that Tom’s out for the season – it all starts in this game where the Pats are an underdog – nobody on New York’s defense is stopping Randy, and Cassel, if he’s smart, will give him a few chances to make plays.

WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Minnesota: The Vikes will put up enough points to make Peyton throw it around. Wayne can torch the Vikes secondary. This should be a good play.

TE: Heath Miller vs. Cleveland: I know Jason Witten was wide open all day against the Browns- it could have been just the game, but I’m willing to bet Heath will find his spaces as well.

K: Rod Bironas vs. Cincinnati: I feel bad taking any kickers, but Rod looks like he should have a big day. I may have jinxed the guy, and he seems like a good fella, oh well – that’s my job, kicker icer.

D: Giants vs. St. Louis: Sacks and then interceptions – seems like a Giant recipe for success.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

JaMarcus Russell: 220+ and 2 scores… Doubt me? We’ll see who is right. I’d say Russell outscores Favre, Brees, or Carson Palmer.

Aaron Rodgers: You believe yet? Rodgers plays even better this week, keeps the high percentage but throws for more yards in a big Packers’ win.

Chris Johnson: Is he still a sleeper starter? He’s going to kill the Bengals.

Julius Jones: #1 and really the only option for Seattle’s rushing attack. They didn’t look great, but they get the 49ers in Week 2, I like that match-up for the former Giant.

Laurence Maroney: Laurence Maroney will be a nice play this week. He’s a good runner, but can’t seem to get his hands on more than 15 carries – this week he will and 100+ and a TD is what I see from him.

Antwaan Randel El: The Redskins may look out of sync, but Twaan looks like he belongs in this offense, like he was made for it I guess. Against a Saints defense that isn’t known for stopping much, I like him as a sleeper in Week 2.

Anthony Gonzalez: He’s the number three, but he’ll be going up against a safety duo in Minnesota that can’t keep up with him. If he’s open, Manning will find him. He will be open, so, you get it right?

Robert Meachem: The kid didn’t play last week, but if you need help, somebody probably dropped him and he’s on the free agent list right now. Pick him up and at least see what he does. I think he’ll do some nice things.

Dustin Keller: He’s a nice mis-match problem with New England’s secondary – seems like a nice sleeper to me if you are in a Todd Heap bind.

Cardinals: The Cards are better than advertised and they have Miami this week in Arizona. I like my chances with them as my defensive pick-up of the week. Houston against Baltimore also gets consideration.

Papa’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Chris Perry: Another tough team for Perry – he has lots of tough match-ups to begin his starting career – this is one of them.

Steven Jackson: If you have a nice #3, don’t feel shamed to sit your 1st round pick – that’s why you drafted running backs high. Jackson won’t do much against the Giants defense.

Chris Chambers: Not this week for the former Dolphin, Champ has him on lockdown.

Devery Henderson: I know Colston is out, and Henderson looks like a nice option, but he won’t get as many looks as you think, and his 80 yard touchdown probably won’t come this week.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 1 ('08)

Posted on September 3, 2008 by Papa Weimer

Lets get right to it. You know the gig, you ask questions and I answer them. For God’s sake it’s not that freaking much of a scientific experiment to get all hoogily boogily about – but it is some sound advice that just might be able to help out this weekend. Let the games begin!

David says, “I have Kevin Walter and Eddie Royal as backups, and while i like both of their respective upsides, would you drop one f them to pick up one of the following players? – Deion Branch, DJ Hackett, Donte Hall, Jabar Gaffney, Steve Breaston…

Boy, I would say that I like DJ and Branch just as much as I like Walter – and Royal is a rookie receiver so the chances of him being a good option right off teh bat just aren’t as good – but, I really like Royal, think he’s the best receiver in the draft, and I’d hang on to him for a week just to see how he’s used in Denver. I love Hackett, really, last year I thought he was the best receiver in Seattle. Now he gets to play opposite Steve Smith – if he stays healthy – and that if is harder to comeby with him than just about anyone else. Gaffney, you’re right about him, there’s reason to be intrigued by the guy playing #3 in that offense. BUt I don’t think his upside is as high as DJ, Branch, Royal, or Walter – so I’d stikc with the guys you have. THe biggest sure thing you have is Deion Branch. I would pick him up and drop Walter right now. Branch is supposed to play in Week 3 or after their week 4 bye… He’s a stud. He’ll likely be Seattle’s #1 when he gets back and he’ll play 12 games thi syear – that’s worth a roster spot. Dropping Walter won’t kill you. He could be good this year, but I don’t think his upside is 1000 yards and 8 touchdowns, so you don’t have to keep him because both Hackett and Branch do have that upside. You could drop Royal – Walter is a safer bet than Royal, but I’m not a huge safe bet guy in this respect – take the guy with the most ability: that’s my motto – that’s Royal.

Slick Doug from Bremerton asks, “Who would you start at running back between these four soldiers? Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones, Steven Jackson, and Michael Turner – I can only start two.”

Not many people are going to like this, but I would roll without AP in my starting lineup for Week 1. I know, it seems just crazy enough to predict that I am soon to be described as senile – but what if I’m right? Thomas Jones plays the Dolphins, Jackson plays the Eagles, and Turner has to go up against that old run-stuffing juggernaut in Detroit. AP plays against a very good and young Packers defense and he won’t have the luxury of his pro-bowl offensive tackle, Bryant McKinnie, to help pave the way. Losing a stud on the outside is a tough deal, especially against Green Bay. You’ve done a great job grabbing back-ups, and this is a good time to use that flexibility. If you can handle sitting two of the best backs in the league, I would go with Mike Turner and Thomas Jones – but that’s just me. I think Steven Jackson is a nice option though, so he could be the answer. The Eagles aren’t a great run-defense by any means, and if Jackson hadn’t missed the entire pre-season I would go with him. I just think Jones and Turner get 20+ carries easily, and that will be good enough for the girls I go with.

Davis in Dillingham, AK writes, “Even us Alaska folk play fantasy football – but we also have questions. I recently got a full dynasty keeper league trade offer from my buddy, Calvin Johnson and Larry Johnson for Jospeh Addai and Roy Williams. I love Calvin – would you do it?”

Tough call Davis. To start with I’ve been in Dillingham a couple times, been up fishing for salmon once or twice, haha. Tough climate up there in the Winter, eh? Anyway, it doesn’t seem like good value – your trade that is. Addai is so young and part of a great offense that gives him lots of red zone looks without wearing him down. I like LJ but I would be surprised if he has many years left in his tank – plus the Chiefs abuse his body something fierce. Like I said, I love Calvin Johnson but he’s not that huge of an upgrade to Roy Williams. Williams is getting a bad wrap this season, but before his injury he was just about on pace to match his 2006 numbers last year. He’ll be a good option, and Addai is much better than LJ for the future. Hold your cards!

Tiny Tim in Wyoming asks, “Do you have any crazy sleeper advice headed in to Week 1? Any guy that I should get my hands on before I lose a chance?

If Chris Perry is still on your waiver wire, I’d grab him. The same goes for Chris Johnson and DJ Hackett. Hackett has been dropped by a lot of people recently, because of his pre-season ailments, but he should start and have a very good chance to look good in week 1. I say go for one of these three guys because they all have tough defensive match-ups, and if they play well right off the bat, their stock will go sky high. All 3 have a nice chance to really produce this season if they stay healthy. Chris Johnson is a favorite here at LL.com.

Okay, remember, if you want your fantasy questions answered, just send an email to papaweimer50@hotmail.com.

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theRUNDOWN: Week 6

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 2

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

theRUNDOWN: Week 2

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 1 ('08)