Tag Archives: Fantasy Football 2009

Fantasy Focus Review: Week 6 Fantasy Football Analysis

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So, I got it right this week with my elite starts, that’s for sure. The only guy I missed on was Brandon Marshall, but the other guys ripped it up – if only I would have put Ray Rice and Drew Brees in there, I might be calling me Genius Lester. I also got back into the winning swing of things by pulling off this week’s writer’s title for best fantasy rankings of the week. Ryan came in 2nd, but lets still call him last. Papa finished 3rd after two straight weeks atop the charts, and Arsenault finished last. One of these days, this title will leave the family, until then… Here’s the review of this week’s Fantasy Focus Fantasy Analysis.

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – 3rd ranked RB, 31 fantasy points – you bet! A+
2. Randy Moss – #1 ranked WR, #3 overall with 38 fantasy points. Uh huh! A+
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – 2nd ranked RB, 38 fantasy points – even better! A+
4. Tom Brady – #1 QB and #1 overall with his 5 TD 2nd quarter against the Titans, 51 for Terrific Tom. A+
5. Brandon Marshall – Marshall had just 9 fantasy points, 43rd amongst WRs, those two Royal returns hurt his chances. D

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Matt Hasselbeck – Gross, that’s the only way to explain the Hawks this week. Oh, and this… F
2. T.J. Housmandzadeh – T.J. was almost as bad as Matt – not quite, 7 fantasy points, but almost. D-
3. Cedric Benson – #19 RB of the week, not a bad day, 12 fantsy point not great either, especially against Houston’s run D. C+
4. Brett Favre – #4 QB in Week 6, another great pick for this week. Brett put up 29 fantasy points. A+
5. Wes Welker –I must say, Wes almost made my Top guys for Week 6, but I couldn’t put two WRs from the same team there. On cue, Wes was #2 behind Randy’s #1… A+

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – Like most of the Hawks, nothing this week. F
2. Donnie Avery – Avery looked good early, grabbing a 17 yard pass for a TD, but that would be it as he got hurt. C
3. Rashard Mendenhall – 15th RB in Week 6, and now he has the starting job on lock down. If they’d only commit to run. B
4. Kyle Orton – # 8 QB for Week 6, 22 big ones, you bet! A
5. Eddie Royal – His kick off and punt return TDs got him 12 fantasy points in most leagues, but if you had him in a league that gets 0 points for his huge day. I don’t know, I’ll take a C.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Fred Jackson –31st overall, 8 fantasy points- a no start for sure. B+
2. Vincent Jackson – 27th WR in Week 6, not a bad day, caught a nice TD pass – he’s a good one. Decent day. C-
3. Julius Jones – JJ sucked it up big time.  A+
4. Santonio Holmes – 21st WR, a nice day for Holmes, still don’t know why they passed so much, maybe to keep it close? D
5. Steve Slaton – Slaton killed it, ran okay, caught lots of passes for over 100 yards. Missed big here. F

PS – Seahawks killed a lot of fantasy owners on way to killing themselves. Eagles too…

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Week 6 Fantasy Final Rankings

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Kickers: Ryan Longwell, Mason Crosby, Nate Kaeding, Ryan Succop were ranked 1-4…

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Who did we miss this week? Well we were pretty accurate, but from top to bottom, here are a few we left out. The quarterbacks we missed? Try Drew Brees and Matt Schaub, numbers 2 and 3 amongst QBs respectively. I know Drew is having a hell of a year, but next time you have a minute, take a look at Matt’s production over the first few games – dirty. For running backs, Ray Rice, Thomas Jones, and Steve Slaton all finished in the Top 5. Ray was #1 overall with a huge week, single handily pulling the Ravens on top of the Vikings before Brett won it again… For receivers, Hines Ward and Sydney Rice finished 5th and 6th, nobody gives Hines any credit. In the TE rankings, we missed out on #’s 2 and 3, Zach Miller and Tony Scheffler both had huge games in big wins for their teams. And defensively we left out 3, 4, and 5 – Buffalo, Arizona, and Kansas City. Pretty good week for the good guys, stay tuned for Week 7’s fantasy predictions!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6 Fantasy Football Advice Part 2

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As promised, the questions keep coming in (and I’m still kicking) so I’ll share them with the rest of you. As always, you can email any football questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – working hard to dream big! Hope these tidbits help!

David wonders, “Would you rather have Mario Manningham or Anthony Gonzalez?”

I’d rather have Anthony Gonzalez, and it’s not only because I thought he was going to be a good player prior to the season – but that has something to do with it. I’m a firm believer that you need to have good reason to lose interest or belief in a player you expected big things from in any given year. Giving up on a guy because he was injured doesn’t seem to be right. Gonzo went down early, and since then every time I see Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie put up big numbers, I think to myself how right I could be about Gonzo if the injury bug didn’t whack him on the head. I like Manningham, don’t get me wrong, the kid is fast, runs good routes, is tough to tackle, and gets the ball – but I believe he’ll get fewer catches with Hakeem Nicks becoming more and more a part of the Giants offense. Gonzalez has a chance to be a decent #2 receiver, where I don’t think Manningham will be a consistent WR this season, and is probably no better than a #3 or Flex. When you’re making a play on a guy, go for upside, and I think Anthony has that. Long answer shortened, I’d rather have Gonzo.

Stuck in a Trailer writes, “Here’s a question for you-  should I dump Glen Coffee he has a bye week and then Gore returns,  I could pick up TE for my TE bye week or a decently dropped Def  or some receiver or RB who might be on the waiver wire worth picking up, Thoughts?”

Yeah, I think that’s a good move. Unless you’re hurting for RB options, I think Coffee isn’t a must have. It was said to me that Gore actually wanted to play last week, not sure what that means, but what it says to me is he’ll definitely be back when football moves forward for the 49ers, and Coffee hasn’t set the world on fire. Coffee is solid, but if you can pick up a player that will help you in the future, I think dropping him is a good move. Especially if you get a pretty good guy that somebody had to drop to fill a bye week spot. It’s always tough to drop players that have been consistent for you, but sometimes that’s the best move.

Isaac Melgoza from Santa Ana California first thanked me for giving him Chris Johnson last season, told me he digs the site, gave me his team, receivers and running backs (Burleson, Berrian, Boldin, Sims-Walker, Maningham and LT, Steven Jackson, Jerome Harrison, Glen Coffee) and his league scoring settings (We start 2 RBs and 3 WRs. 2 points for 25 yards rushing or receiving, 10 points for every TD, 20 points for a TD of 50 or more) and asked me, “Would you trade LT, Sims-Walker, and Manningham for AP and Steve Smith (Carolina)? Would you still do the deal if it was Derrick Mason and another receiver plus AP for those three guys? Am I giving up too much? Would you counter offer? Thanks for the help!”

Isaac, thanks for the question, and I’m glad you benefited from Chris last season. You know, it’s crazy, a ton of people have written in for the first time this season starting off by thanking me for Chris Johnson, pretty funny. Gotta love it. I assume next year new readers will write in thanking me for nothing with Anthony Gonzalez and Eddie Royal, haha, but they still have time to prove me right! Hope you keep enjoying the site!

As for the trade, I think Sims Walker, Manningham, and LT for AP and Steve Smith would be a huge win for you. Even Derrick Mason wouldn’t be too shabby, he’s, at the very least, a very consistent guy. But he never catches a lot of touchdowns, so in a league like yours he’s not too great. I like Sims Walker a lot, but he’s not an upgrade over Steve Smith, in my opinion. Sure, through 5 weeks he has more points, and he’s been great in games as a starter, but Steve Smith, shoot, we’re talking about one of the baddest receivers in the league. He has 40+ targets through 4 games, and soon enough that will result in big point totals. LT should be decent the rest of the season, but he definitely looks like he’s trying too hard, and he’s no Adrian Peterson at this point in his career. AP hasn’t been great besides week 1, either, but I like his upside. He should actually be better against teams that keep the game close, because the Vikings won’t ride him hard if they don’t need to, obviously they are trying to keep him healthy. I think a line-up of McNabb, A MF’in P, Steven Jackson, Boldin, Burelson, Steve Smith or D. Mason, with some solid upside back-up WRs like you have is a good move. I’d keep Flacco, he’s a great back-up, especially with McNabb and his injury question marks over the years. You starting line-up should contend for a championship. Don’t get me wrong, your team is solid as is, but AP is a huge upgrade at a position where you haven’t gotten great production thus far. Go for it! Thanks again for the write-in, love to give you my answers anytime.

Miguel explains his situation and asks, “I need some fantasy help from a guru! I am in a PPR league where we start 2 QBs, 3 WRs, 2 RBs, and a TE for our main offense.Rogers, Henne, and Edwards as my QBs – TO, Berrian, Burleson, Boldin, and Massaqoui for WR – Slaton, Jacobs, Chester Taylor, and LeSean McCoy at RB – Shockey and Heap at TE.  I was offered a trade of Favre and LT in exchange for Rogers and Berrian. Is this something I should jump on? Byes might be a problem as LT and Slaton are gone in Week 10… “

Miguel, I would stick with Rogers and Berrian I think, Rogers is an elite passer, and should have huge games. Brett will be decent, but I think that Minnesota offense will continue to rely heavily on the run game, and getting rid of Rogers is a very tough deal. Burleson and Boldin are elite receivers this season, both will continue to get high targets, and I expect Boldin to be even better as the season moves forward. So you’re pretty good there. And depending on match-up, TO, Berrian, and Massaquoi are nice 3rd WR options.

The problem with the trade is that I don’t think it makes either position better, and if you’re not improving somewhere, why make a deal, right? If you only start 2 running backs, I think Jacobs and Slaton should be solid as the season goes forward, I hardly expect Jacobs to continue his low yard per carry output, he should get better. Slaton will continue to be a solid play as the season goes forward, good PPR guy and a solid runner. LT is decent, but he will share carries and has had a tough time with aches and pains of late. I would rank Jacobs and Slaton ahead of LT from now until the end of the season. And obviously I would rank Rogers higher than Favre. LT would give you depth, but with Chester Taylor and McCoy, you have two upside guys that could produce in a crunch. Keep your stud QB, who has even more value in a 2 QB league, and I think your team would be better off. The byes are a tough deal, but by week 10 you might have a starting RB in McCoy, and maybe even some numbers form Chester, or you could find a back-up for an injured starter somewhere along the line. Don’t worry about byes quite yet. Hope that helps!

Fantasy Football Picks Ten for Tuesday

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“I bet Braylon Edwards thinks he’s died and gone to career heaven.” At least that’s what Josh Arsenault says, and right now I believe him 100%. He’s probably writing thank you letters, sending fat Man-jina sandwiches, and going out to punch little kids as we speak. Dude is celebrating big, and why shouldn’t he? He knows the new offense he’s in, he has a quarterback with a shiny bright future, and a new lease on his football life. Career heaven. Haha. Indeed….    Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn. You say tomato, I say shitty. Everyone was wondering why that donkey Man-jina took so damn long to pick a starting quarterback this year; now you know why. He probably would have rather punched his own face numerous times than anoint one of those over-hyped signal caller’s his starting quarterback. Now we see why Braylon dropped so many balls in Cleveland, he was so damn surprised to see a ball get anywhere close to his hands he didn’t know what to do with the pig skin. 2 for 17, Derek Anderson, are you kidding me? 1 interception? And you win the game? Well, I guess on the bright side he had twice as many completions to his team than to the opponent. The situation in Cleveland is giving JaMarcus Russell something to smile about, at least he’s not a 2 for 17 QB like that guy. You’ve got to start somewhere….   Tom Brady has to be pissed, or maybe he’s to blame? whatever it is, the Patriots draw calls late in the game were pathetic. One of the most accurate passers in the game, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker running routes, ends up handing the ball to Kevin Faulk on back to back plays in hopes of a first down, and what happens? No first down, they have to punt, it goes into overtime, and Josh McDaniel’s Broncos get the win. I may be bitter because I took the Patriots, but there’s just something painfully “careful” about the way the Patriots have been playing, and I don’t like it one bit. When did Mike Holmgren get in Belichick’s ear anyway? After this game, I expect the Patriots to get back to their rifleman way…..    It was pointed out to me that the Washington Redskins have yet to play a team coming into a game. They may be just 2-3, and they go up against yet another winless team on Sunday, but even if they get to .500, you’d have to think they have a very tough road ahead. After this Sunday, their days of playing winless teams is likely over, and I imagine their shot at .500 has the same fate. If you can get somebody that believes in Clinton Portis or Santana Moss, you might entertain their offers….   I would be pretty stunned if St. Louis wins a football game this year. I know there are lots of terrible teams this season, and in fact four teams have started 0-5, which is pathetic in and of itself. The Raiders aren’t even one of them. But Kansas City has shown me some promise, and I think they win a couple games. Even Tampa Bay, who most think are hapless, will win a couple by just pounding it out against poor run defenses, they have the talent on the line and in the backfield to run the ball successfully. And Tennessee is just too good to lose more than 10 games, they should finish around .500 (at least) the rest of the way. But the Rams? Where’s their gimmie game? If they don’t win at Jacksonville this week (and I don’t think they have a chance) or in Detroit in Week 8 (I think the Lions kill them), then they will only find a win next to the pot of gold at the end of the freaking rainbow. They are brutal. They have been outscored 146-34 on the season: brutal…..   Speaking of the Lions, how good was Daunte Culpepper this weekend? Really good. When you consider that the only real pass threat, and the teams best player, Calvin Johnson, went down with an injury right off the bat, and the fact that Pittsburgh blitzed and hit him all day long, and his running back had 20 carries for 53 yards, that he got his team within a score late in the 4th quarter was flat out amazing. 23 for 37 for 282 yards and a touchdown, for the Lions, without Calvin – please. The Lions best chance to win now is with Pep in at Q. Unfortunately, they still don’t have a great chance to win, and thus Stafford will be back at the helm in no time….     Denver and Cincinnati are good teams. I told you at the beginning of the season, and I’ll tell you again now. Will they continue to win at the rate they are right now? I can’t promise that, but I will say this, both teams will be in nearly every single game this year. Just like Mike Singletary found out this Sunday against Atlanta, every team can have a down game and get blown out, but the Broncos, Bengals, and 49ers for that matter, will be in the thick of things all season long. The tides, they are a changing….    Miles Austin goes big league chew on me (and the Chiefs) this Sunday, and the Cowboys need every one of those yards to walk out of Kansas City with a win? You’ve got to be kidding me. But Miles wasn’t the only Austin to kill me this week. I went into the week starting Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, and Randy Moss as my receivers over two guys with Austin in their names (Miles and Collie), and a rookie that had 6 catches and no touchdowns to his name prior to Week 5, one Jeremy Maclin. And I was stupid enough to think I had a huge advantage. How huge was my advantage? Those three Week 5 super heroes beat my entire fantasy team all by themselves. Maclin put up 146 and a couple scores, Collie scored twice as well, and Miles broke out for 250 yards with 2 scores on 10 catches. Miles Austin > Roy Williams and his ribsies….  Speaking of huge games, Miles just barely beat out Roddy White this week. Roddy had a couple fewer catches and 40 fewer yards, but 210 and 2 scores on 8 catches isn’t too shabby. White was bound to break out, and while I though that would come in a week where he wasn’t being guarded by one of the league’s top corners, Nate Clements, I was dead wrong. Roddy big brothered the Niners all day long, and Matt Ryan put on big boy pants getting his man the ball all day long. Michael Turner’s return to 4+ yards per carry helped as well. With the 49ers struggling to stop the run, that play action pass did wonders for Matt and the Falcons…..   Andre Johnson’s play to score his second touchdown will have a place in my eyes as one of the Top 10 plays of the season. As if the catch wasn’t nice enough, he reacted quick enough to run over Karlos Dansby instead of getting trucked himself, he then waived off another tackler, before big brothering the Cardinals safety into the end zone. Dirty. Andre Johnson is an absolute beast…..   Brett Favre is on pace to accrue the highest completion percentage of his career. Now I know it’s just Week 6 we’re coming up to, but Brett has the best rushing attack he’s ever had, he gets all the time in the world to throw, and he’s taking fewer Favre-chances than ever before. He’s as accurate as ever, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he kept up his end of the bargain all season long. What has me a little worried is that Adrian Peterson and that ‘Sota running game hasn’t looked nearly as good as it has been over the last couple seasons…. Yeah, you counted right, that’s 11! See you next week!

Fantasy Football Analysis: Ten For Tuesday

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“Brett Favre looked like the much better quarterback all night long, but in the end his fantasy points were very similar to Aaron Rodgers’ totals. Ridiculous.” That’s what a buddy posted on my fantasy league’s message board after Monday Night’s game. So what, the people out there that want to believe great fantasy numbers make you the best player is confused. This is fantasy football, where team wins matter little, and garbage time is tacked on just the same. Rodgers put up 380+ yards, more than a 100 more than Brett. He gave up a couple turnovers, but those high numbers kept the fantasy night close. You can’t score points based on how good you looked, it’s all about numbers in this one….    Rashard Mendenhall looked like the beast I thought he would be since he decided to leave Illinois. Now he runs a little high, and that could subject him to some big hits, but he hits the hole hard, runs with power, and often spins or bounces off that first tackle. If he continues to get touches, he’s a nice find for those owners that either picked him up or kept him during his early woes. When he came out, I thought Mendenhall would be the best back in his class. That was saying a lot considering he came out with guys like McFadden, Jon Stewart, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice and others. I’m not positive he’ll pan out as the best of that stellar bunch, but I still like his future….    Speaking of last year’s draft, it has been nothing short of amazing. The amount of gamebreaking players that are tearing up the league right now as sophomores is amazing, even in the fantasy realm. I count 20 guys that have been fantasy relevant this year, just in the first 4 rounds – that’s not normal…..  The 49ers dominated the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, proving once again that their “need” for Michael Crabtree isn’t as pressing as the former Texas Tech star expected. Stories have surfaced that Crabtree and his agent are ready to get back to the bargaining table. It’s about damn time. I’ve now dropped the kid in both the leagues I’ve owned him in, and I’m keeping him on the waiver wire, but if you’re looking for a chance to take, he’s a deep shot in the dark….     Eli Manning has been worth every single dollar the Giants paid him this off-season, and yes, that took a lot for me to say. He’s going to have to really bite the dust hard if he wants to have the “normal Eli year” and I don’t think it’s going to happen. But things like his little heel problem throw, are part of the reason why I’ll never like this guy. He dropped back, landed weird on his foot, lost his balance, regained it, only to try and throw and fall down in the process like someone shot him in the foot. And what happened? Dude’s heel is bruised. Please……    I predicted a huge year from Ronnie Brown, and so far he’s looking pretty good to me. The guy is a beast, his vision is perfect, his all around game is impressive, and his team will be relying heavily on him to win ball games. He’s averaging just over 90 yards per game and a touchdown per. But this might be the height of his fantasy stock for a while. The guy is legit, but he goes up against the Jets (twice), and the Saints, in the next three games. It gets easier after that, but I’m just saying, get ready for some tough sledding ahead….    The Raiders offense sucks! 6 points against the Texans, come on….   Now the Saints running attack had a pretty solid outing against one of the best run defenses in football this Sunday, Pierre Thomas is the real deal; but it’s that stellar defensive transformation that continues to amaze me. The Saints really know how to bring pressure, often fooling teams into mishaps that leave open rushers despite rushing fewer people than offensive blockers. If you can get pressure on 6 blockers with 4 and 5 rushers, often going unblocked, you’re going to win a lot of football games….     Now this is the David Garrard I know and love. His accuracy, mistake free football, and efficiency has been great over the last two games. His 5-1 TD to INT ratio is consistent with his ability, and I think he’ll continue to put up solid numbers all season long. He got Torry Holt in the off-season, and that was huge, but seeing Mike Sims-Walker become a go-to guy will do wonders for this whole team. It’s just nice to finally see Garrard not running for his life every snap, his O-line is getting better every week….    I’d like to congratulate Denver for their awesome start to the season. I warned a lot of people that the Broncos weren’t as bad as everyone thought, but not even I thought they’d be this solid. Defensively they have gotten very tough, and Kyle Orton might be starting to figure out the talent he has on the outside (though he still hasn’t discovered Eddie Royal). Knowshon Moreno is going to be a special player, and it’s beginning to look like this McDaniels guy knows what he’s doing afterall, huh? I’ve liked him from the start, and his 4-0 beginning, the way he went and gave Marshall a hug after that game winning catch and run, and his overall passion and respect for the game is encouraging. Not only is his future bright, but I expect it to be long as well.

Wing Man!: Not Every Superhero needs a Sidekick

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History supports what I’m saying here, not always can the dynamic of two super personalities, amazing talents, wonderfully crafted names and/or awkwardly revealing spandex outfits, fit together like Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson, or even a more well-known duo, Batman and Robin (and even the last two heroes might find it tougher together nowadays)… In fact, if you look at the big picture, it becomes more and more evident that not every Super-Hero needs a Sidekick. In fact, most of the big name stars produce more box office fantasy potential all by themselves in their own little uniforms (As you can easily recognize that even Batman does his best movies sans his puffy feathered bird of a sidekick).

There are a few guys I’m looking at this year where a certain sidekick is digging into the main man’s cover-value, and even a couple more stars that are getting matched up with other stars – two superheroes do not always make a friendly team: Wolverine, Punisher, Spiderman, Captain America.  You have to remember, when a team gets better, a fantasy player doesn’t always improve.

Scrappy Doo basically crushed a very good cartoon of young crime fighters. Scooby was doing a fine job begging for Scooby Snacks, being a scaredy dog, and being his pot-head friend’s best bud. All Scrappy did was come in and steal some of the spotlight, and since everyone loves a puppy, soon he was getting too much attention. Suddenly, the drop off happened and Scooby and his friends have never quite recovered.

And what about Jimmy Olsen, Superman’s pal, one of the only guys to know Supe’s identity – well, all he did was get his buddy into trouble at every turn. Did Superman ever need Jimmy? I think not.

Wolverine vs. Punisher? Spiderman fighting Captain America? It’s amazing that a couple guys looking for the same thing (in both instances) could get into such a fiasco with each other – but it happens.

These things happen in the “fantasy world” and they also happen in fantasy football. This season there are some sidekicks ready to help the team all the while stomping out some fantasy fire of their own teammates. And while most of these guys play for wins and losses instead of statistical superiority – the truth of the matter is… You and I don’t. Not in fantasy football anyway. So which gridiron heroes will have their value cut down to size by the Scrappy Doo’s, Jimmy Olsen’s, Wondergirl’s and Aqualad’s of the National Football League? Follow along closely…

Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen

This seems like the easiest one around. Matt Cassel found a new home with a new offensive genius taking over in Kansas City. But what about Thigpen? What about the guy that dominated down the stretch? What about Tyler Thigpen? If you look back at last season’s stats, you will see two new teammates ranked 2nd and 3rd amongst quarterbacks during last season’s second half. That’s right, you guessed it, Tyler Thigpen is number 2 and Matt Cassell was number 3. That Top 5 list looks like this… Drew Brees, Thigpen, Cassel, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. So, while many people probably don’t even know who Tyler Thigpen is, as he was really only a super hero fantasy star to those that picked him up for a late run into the post season (yes, that was me in more than a couple instances), he was still a star. Thigpen was 3 points shy of Drew Brees during those 10 weeks, and Brees had a brilliant season. But Cassel has the job, and surely Thigpen will suffer most in this match up of free agent pick ups turned fantasy playoff super heroes of 2008 turned teammates of 2009. This season will mark the first time in history that this situation will ever have taken place. Two young quarterbacks with huge statistical seasons meet up on the same team the very next year. But it is what it is, and Matt Cassel will be crushing the fantasy relevance of his teammate, and higher rated fantasy performer of last year’s second half. The team has gotten better, but Thigpen has lost his way.

Jay Culter and Matt Forte

Both players became fantasy stars in 2008. Matt Forte did so in his rookie season for a Bears team that used him as their main weapon, finishing a win away from the playoffs. Forte was as consistent as fantasy stars get, putting up solid numbers week after week as the Bears gave him the ball early and often. Jay Cutler was Mike Shanahan’s little buddy, a coach in uniform, the son he always wanted. Jay got the green light to throw any ball he wanted any time, and while that made Cutler one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football, it also ended Splinter’s long run as the head coach in Denver. That led to Josh McDaniels getting the reigns for the Broncos, which led to Cutler having a fit when McD wanted his former QB, which led to bagels being just another way to get cream cheese to your face, which led to Jay Cutler getting traded for 2 first round picks, a couple more picks, and a 6 pack of Chicago’s best brew. That dysfunctional set of circumstantial dominoes led to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, two rising fantasy stars, to meet up in Chicago’s backfield. Well goodness me. But whose value is effected more? Well, I would imagine that both players have a slight hit in value, but both could see their efficiency ratings moving on up. Crazy how fantasy and actual football can be so different. Matt Forte is likely to see less 8 man fronts (if any), while Cutler is likely to see more open secondaries with defenses actually paying attention to the run game in his offense. But, Forte will get less carries, less catches, and likely less touchdowns in 2009. Jay Cutler will almost surely have less yardage, fewer touchdown passes, while continuing to throw interceptions this season with the Bears. But Forte will get more yards per carry while Cutler’s QB rating will likely rise. They may make a nice duo, two young guys with their entire comic book careers in front of them, but this year both will suffer in the fantsy realm, losing the numbers from their days as single stars.

Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White

After years of lacking a #1 receiver, the Falcons finally came through with the coming of age of Roddy White. And after years of stumbling around losing seasons without another true offensive threat, Tony Gonzalez was traded to a city of bright fantasy youngsters making a name for themselves in the NFC South. But who will be the star in this receiving situation? The young up and comer or the old school TE that can stake his claim as one of the best ever? Only I have the answer you’re looking for. Both should fail to match last year’s top notch numbers. Say what you want about Dwayne Bowe’s rise to stardom or Matt Ryan being better than the Chiefs’ no-name quarterback last season, but neither piece of information will convince me that Tony G is in a better fantasy situation than he was last season. Last year, Bowe was still just the 2nd fiddle in KC’s passing game, with the attention of opposing defenses collapsing around Tony. And he may be relatively unknown, but I already showed you that Tyler Thigpen was no joke going down the stretch, so stop belittling the guy. Plus, KC threw the ball a lot last year, which is how Tony got so much fantasy love. Likewise, Roddy White was the only real threat in the passing game last season, but the Falcons ran so dang much that defenses had to bite on the play action. Matt Ryan locked onto his number one guy, and reasonably so, White was a yardage gaining machine for the Falcons. Now both top flight receivers will see differences in 2009. Tony Gonzalez will find himself in an offense that runs the ball as much as they throw which should cut down on his chances to get anywhere close to last season’s targets. Not only that but Roddy White is one of the best young receivers in the league, one that 2nd year QB Matt Ryan made a living throwing to in 2008 – so a repeat of last year’s totals should be close to impossible. And for Roddy, you know the Falcons are still going to run a ton, and a great tight end is a quarterback’s best friend, and his notoriety as a receiving threat should have defenses paying more attention to him this season – so his targets will likely fall as well. The Falcons offense should be great, even better than last season’s surprising numbers, but these two super-heroes won’t win as often in fantasy circles.

Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene

This is definitely a case similar to Scrappy Doo’s fuse lighting to the dynamite under Scooby’s career. Thomas Jones had his best season as a pro. If anyone gained value from Brett’s arm last season it was Jones. Thomas finished 5th amongst running backs in non-ppr leagues, making him one of the best fantasy values of 2008. But in comes the younger cuter puppy hero drafted by the Jets. (Actually, Shonn Greene is a beast of a kid and as far as looks go Thomas may have the girls gushing after his bulging biceps, but you get the picture). Still, already Shonn is getting rave reviews in Jets camp, and with a new coach in town there’s no real loyalty to last season’s production. If Coach Ryan learned anything from his time in Baltimore it was that the best player plays no matter if he’s getting paid like Willis McGahee or Le’Ron McClain. That might be just the ignition Greene needs to up-end the 31 year old Thomas Jones’ career. This could definitely be a case of the sidekick back-up unproven option stealing too much of the star’s light, and slowly eating into that profile he worked so hard to build. Drop Thomas in your rankings, yes, but don’t completely ignore the guy. I’ve seen him falling way too far in Fantasy Drafts, and there’s a good chance he’s still a productive piece of the Jets rushing attack.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White

Last season it was Chris Johnson eating into White’s numbers, but this season the roles may be reversed. I’ve noticed Chris Johnson getting lots of fantasy love on draft days. But LenDale is now a much slimmer and still powerful version of himself. Everyone expected Chris Johnson to continue his growing percentage of carries from last season. After starting pretty equal, he was definitely the horse the Titans tried to ride down the stretch. But this season could be a lot more even than people are ready to believe. LenDale has always had a knack for the end-zone with very athletic feet for a big powerful back. Coming into camp in the best shape of his life, running faster than ever, and apparently buying into everything more than ever before makes him a sneaky thief to Johnson’s carries. When you add the often forgotten fact that LenDale is smack dab in the midst of a contract season, he has even more to play for, a future contract and a starting gig (if the Titans don’t want to pay the man his money). So before you draft Chris Johnson with all his speed and excitement and all that man-love you have for him – remember, there’s a big bad touchdown thieving guy from USC that not only has something to prove, but money to earn in 2009. Chris should still be a nice player in 2009, he’s a great young back, but expecting even more impressive numbers in 2009 might disappoint you this season.