Category Archives: Papa Weimer

Papa Weimer fantasy football columnist for luckylester.com. Each week Papa Weimer contributes several articles on fantasy football and this is his main category.

Papas Picks: Week 17 NFL Underdogs Bets

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Well I was only 2-3 last week as the Raiders, Jaguars, and Redskins all let me down with stinkers that basically exemplify everything I hate about those three franchises. The Redskins never know what they have, so how the hell can you? The Jaguars can play awesome football against good teams, put themselves in a nice position to succeed, then come out and crap all over themselves like this guy Samson that hangs out down past 31st and Douglas. And the Raiders, well, Al Davis made a deal with the Devil, and when the Devil came to collect, Al Davis promised he wouldn’t kill him if he didn’t kill him… got that? Hate. So this week I’ll leave those three pathetic crumbs off my list of dogs, and we’ll go with some teams with gumption. Believe it!

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Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals: They say that the Packers don’t have anything to play for, and while that may be true, neither will the damn Cardinals. That’s right, they will get a home game in Week 1 of the playoffs, and that’s about it. By the time this game gets going, Minnesota will have already won and Arizona will be once again, playing for nothing. The Packers brass claim their guys will be treating this like a regular week – and that’s enough for me, I’m in. Plus I think Green Bay is flat out better.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2): The Bucs have won two straight, and I’m just as stunned as anyone. This will be 3 straight. Atlanta is a playoff caliber team, suiting up in Week 17 with no chance at the post-season. That right there is enough to count them out.

New Orleans (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have a decent running game, and Drew Brees is out, and I assume other Saints will be resting as well – but they are still playing the Panthers, and betting against the Panthers when they are a touchdown favorite seems like a great bet.

Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Buffalo Bills: Really? +10? I mean, I know the Colts will be sitting lots of guys, but these are the Bills we’re talking about, and it’s not like the Colts have been terrible when using back-ups all season long. You forget, this defense just plugs in players and succeeds. I’m not guaranteeing a win, but the Colts should cover a dime spot.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting game, for the NFC East Championship and a possible first round bye if the Eagles win. Dallas won last time, in Philly, and I think the Eagles return the favor.

Papas Football Picks: Week 16 NFL Predictions & Previews

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Well, I actually won 4 games last week, but since my article didn’t get published until Sunday Morning, the Dallas Cowboys upset win didn’t get counted. Even though the publisher knew I wrote the article prior to the game, it wasn’t fair for us to put the picks up after the game and count them toward my record. But hey, it is what it is, hopefully everyone listened to Lucky and went with the Cowboys for a big win over the Saints. Who dat gonna beat dem Saints? Only the Cowboys thus far. That’s who.

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The 49ers couldn’t’ cover the 9 point spread last week, but Miami covered by that all important half point, losing by a field goal in overtime.The Packers ended up losing, just like Lucky claimed, but the +2 was enough for me to cover in find fashion. I must say, seeing the Packers up 6 with the Steelers driving had me feeling pretty dang comfortable. And the Bucos just flat out smacked the Seahawks in the face, pulling the upset in Seattle. Nice work Jim Mora – clown.

This week I have only Sunday games, so things don’t get confused at all. And without further word fodder, here they go…

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ Cleveland: Listen, this game will be close. Both teams suck. 3.5 points is a nice friendly spread for a game like this. The Raiders quarterback injuries shouldn’t matter much, it’s not like they have had good play since Rich Gannon finished in Oak Town.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have one single win by 14 points or more. It was the Bears, and Chicago doesn’t count. Kansas City has a nice rushing attack these days, and that should be just enough for the double touchdown dog to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) @ New England Patriots: I know the Pats should feast on the Jaguars secondary, but the Pats should have been feasting on defenses for weeks now – and guess what, they haven’t, that’s what. Tom Brady is killing my fantasy team, and hopefully for this pick, he keeps on killing.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: I just don’t think Indy comes to play in this one, and i don’t think their starters play more than a quarter, maybe two. The Jets want it more, need it more, and will go all out until they get it. That’s more than I can say for the Colts. Seems like free money!

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+8): I know the Redskins were terrible last week, but hey, they’ve played pretty well prior to that. I have to think last week was just a tough go, and the Redskins will be ready to rock with Dallas in town. 8 points is too much for this rivalry.

Papas Picks: Predictions for NFL Week 15 2009

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Last week I only pulled out one win, this up and down roller coaster crap will make an old guy poop himself, but hopefully I can make it to Lucky’s pillow before I let it go. I can’t believe I ever picked the Seahawks, good lord they are an embarrassment. The Bears as well. Oh well, the Chargers made sure I didn’t go winless, but everyone else made me look like a senile gray nose haired bastard. Some would argue that a mirror would show the same thing, but some would get punched in the face by an old guy – and how can you press charges against an old guy? I love me some dogs this week, and I all but guarantee three wins from this bunch. Hold your breath…

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San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia: Lucky said it right when he mentioned that the 49ers have one single double digit loss this season – only one single loss by more than one score – that’s good enough for a +9 bet no matter who they are playing. I liked seeing Mr. Singletary get back to his run game last week against a good run defense – and while I’m sure the Niners will shoot themselves in the foot with the pass, they are good enough to play with the Eagles. Close games are their MO.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans: I don’t know why, but the Dolphins look like a good bet here. They are questionable in the secondary, but that shouldn’t hurt them too bad here. They have been able to run on anyone, and that could help them keep this close. Expect them to take a few more chances this week. They might lose, but Tennessee is king of the field goal win, and that still makes my Dolphins an ATS winnner.

Green Bay Packers (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I don’t get it. Are the books senile too? This crap never gets old, last year’s super bowl team no longer exists guys, that’s a thing of the past, like when skinny jeans took over for MC Hammer pants as the next thing that is cool now that will be remembered with lots of suck, the Steelers are an old champ that resemble hammer pants in today’s game. I’m taking the Pack by a couple scores. Champions don’t play all that well with nothing on the line, and their line has been stepped right over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Seattle Sehawks: Boy the Hawks are bad. Josh Freeman shouldn’t have as much trouble against this soft defense that has loved giving up big plays. Expect the Bucs to do just enough, going as far as nearly pulling the upset in Seattle.

Papas Picks: NFL Week 14 Underdog Predictions

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Alright, I’ve gone 4-1 twice in the last 3 weeks – but the week I didn’t run into 4-1 was a tough one to stomach. I guess that’s the way with underdogs, when the ball doesn’t bounce your way, you look like a dope. I looked pretty solid last week as two of my unpopular dogs won outright, the Dolphins and Raiders. I was pretty stunned the Steelers fell at home to the Raiders, but I was pretty happy looking at 15.5 points against a team that hadn’t won big all year. It’s too bad I never write this article quick enough for Thursday games, because I would have loved getting another underdog win over the Steelers… This week, I have a couple more Dogs that look like pedigree models with all there glorious points – here are this week’s picks.

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Washigton Redskins @ Oakland Raiders (+1): The Redskins find ways to lose, really, they are very good at it. The Raiders have turned it around a bit, and now that they can complete a simple pass to a wide open receiver, they aren’t nearly as bad as before. I like them to win their 3rd in 4 games – crazy.

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: The Chargers are better than the Cowboys, and Dallas always hits a wall and loses important games late. If they lose here, they have are guaranteed to be 2nd place in the NFC East – that means it’s a big game – that means trouble for Big D.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+3.5): The Bears are 4-2 at home this year – so that’s what I have going for me here. They’ve played much worse than they are, and the Packers have been on a streak of really impressive games – I think those things are bound to turn around in one cold afternoon in Chicago.

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Baltimore Ravens: Oh the Ravens and their impotent offense, I mean un-potent, well, what ever it is, it’s not producing many hits lately. With Daunte starting (for a guy with really small hands, I still think he’s pretty good, but I might be living in his fantasy dominating past) I think the Lions have a good chance to put up a few touchdowns through the air, the kid has always thrown the deep ball well. That will be enough to cover.

Seattle Seahawks (+7) @ Houston Texans: I know the Hawks suck on the road, but this team is finally getting healthy, and there’s nothing like a team finally getting healthy when all the other teams are finally starting to lose some players. Houston has struggled lately, definitely misses having one of their most dynamic players in the backfield, and is just 2-4 on the road this season. Oh yeah, and there’s rumbling that their coach might get the axe – that’s never good. One more thing, they’ve lost 4 straight.

Papas Picks: NFL Week 13 Free Predictions, Underdogs!!!

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Okay, so I didn’t do so well last week taking the dogs. I’m sorry for that. That doesn’t mean I’m running away from this article, though, I’ve always followed up losses with wins, and why not now? Here goes nothing…

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New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+4): The Dolphins run the ball really well, always successful, they slow the game down, they keep just about everything close, and they’re always in the game. The Patriots obviously are having troubles defensively, and offensively Tom is off a bit. I like the Dolphins to keep playing tough football at home.

Detroit Lions (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Lions have some offensive firepower and if any team in the NFL could care less than the Bengals do about beating the crap out of their opponent, I’d like to see them. Cinci just wants to win, and when they are up by double digits they just run the clock out like it’s their job. They did it last week against Cleveland and I think they do it against against Detroit.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1): The Texans can’t finish the job and Maurice Jones Drew should find plenty of running room in Houston. All the losses in close games will come back to haunt the Texans sooner or later, and they’ll just fall flat on their faces. They’ve never been a good road team, and Jacksonville is always better at home.

Oakland Raiders (+15.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s 15.5 points. The Steelers have played close games all year, against both good and bad teams. That’s enough for me.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers: I think the Ravens are the better team. They have an attitude that has them step up for big games in the spotlight, and I don’t know if there’s much better than Monday Night against a Green Bay team that has turned up the volume on their season. Ray Lewis, meet Aaron Rodgers…

Papas Picks: Week 12 NFL Underdogs, Texans, Chiefs, Cardinals

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I had a solid little go-around last week, finishing 4-1 with a couple big underdog wins to show for it. I always like to put a small straight-up wager on my dogs, and that worked like a charm last week as the Chiefs and Titans both gave me some nice + money, but I should have won 3, if only the Redskins could have slammed the door shut on the pathetic Cowboys. But finishing isn’t in the cards for that team, I should have known. You know what’s nutso, I pick only dogs, Arse picks only favorites, and Lucky picks whatever he wants, and we all won in Week 11 – then again, I had the best win-percentage. Ha, old people rule! Here’s last week’s review and this week’s top dogs – I’ve got 4 good one’s this week!

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Week 11 Review:

WINNERS
Titans (+4.5) was an outright winner @ Houston.
St. Louis (+10) was a cover-winner against Arizona.
Kansas City (+11.5) just won outright against the might Steelers. Awesome.
Washington (+11) covered easily in a 1 point loss @ Dallas.
LOSERS
Tampa Bay (+11.5) was a sure thing loss against New Orleans, Lucky was right.

Week 12 Free Picks:

Houston Texans (+3.5) @ home vs. Indianapolis Colts: The Texans are better than many give them credit for, and I think Schaub ends up having the much better day through the air. I like Houston to end the Colts winning streak, but like them even more with a little more than a field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have been hot, but in their own little way, so have the Chiefs – hot enough to play with a Chargers team that isn’t great defensively in any one area. 14.5 points, I almost always like that. The Chargers aren’t any kind of two touchdown favorite in my old ass opinion.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Tennessee: I like the Titans with Vince, sure, but every team meets their match, and I just happen to think the Cardinals are a terrible match-up for Vince and the Titans. They stop the run really well and pass with precision and big-play ability. Sounds like a dog win to me!

New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: What a Monday Night Football Game – I can’t wait. I just like the Patriots and points in about every single occasion I can muster. Hope that clears it up. Every single situation ever. You bet! I will!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 12 Fantasy Football Advice

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I’ve answered a lot of fantasy questions this week (ask me anything football any time at papaweimer50@hotmail.com), and thanks to everyone who reads my stuff and sends in the questions – but I only have a couple to share this time around, it is one of my favorite holidays you know, a great 4 day feast at my house where I’m never hungry one single second after about 11am on Thursday Morning. Many eating a little drinking and much football gets observed, just enough time without gravy on my fingers to post a couple questions and answers. Here it is –

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Stan the Man writes, “HELP!!!! SOS…. Man, I don’t know what else I can do to breakout of my slump! My team is free-falling and I play the #1 team this week who has already received production from Rogers and Jacobs. I’m down 30 already, who should I pick at WR between (Hester, Massaquoi, and Gibson) and need 2 between (Forte, Thomas Jones, Roc, or Forsett). I have the Bengals, you like their chances? Thanks!”

First of all, if you’re down already, I’d go with Hester at WR, he’s the biggest chance you have at a huge game between the three guys that are left.

As for running back, Thomas Jones is your biggest sure thing, after that it’s a bit of a crap shoot. YOu could go with Forte, but the Bears rushing attack has sucked, and they play an one of the best run-d’s in the league – but last week the Seahawks saw their starting RB get 8 catches for 80 yards – so there’s some Forte upside in the passing game, though Forsett is probably a different type of receiver than Forte….

I think Forsett would be a great start against the Rams, if Jim Mora wasn’t a tool box, and/if Julius Jones wasn’t pronounced healthy and starting – even so, I think Forsett could have a good day, I just don’t know if he’s worth the risk. I’d say no.

I think I would go with Cartwright – he’s a solid runner, he’s always been a good receiver, and he’s the only thing the Redskins have in those short passing situations. Last week, against a good Dallas run-D, Cartwright caught 7 balls (most on the team) for 70 yards (most on the team) and had 63 rushing yards (most on the team) – or something like that – not sure exact numbers, but something similar to those. I think he could be a solid pick against an Eagles team that has been decent against the run. It’s between him and Forte for me, both could catch lots of balls, I think Cartwright has a better chance to get more rushing yardage, and more catches too – but Forte probably has the better chance to score a touchdown. Tough call, I think I’d go with Roc.

Other than that, it looks good. Hopefully you can make up some ground with your RBs and with Vernon Davis, and the Bengals look like a great start this week.

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Dougie Fresca asks, “Would you start Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, Randy Moss or Wes Welker, John Carlson or Greg Olsen – thanks, sorry for the tough choices, my team is pretty solid and I already started some guys that didn’t do that well (Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson).”

Yeah, Dougie, on the bright side it looks like you’re in a good place. I would start Brady over Peyton – the Texans have a solid secondary and I think they make the Colts run it to beat them, plus, I like a Texans upset bid to possibly work it’s magic, and that would mean a better day from Tom – and Tom has been amazing this year (especially lately) – amazingly, he seems to be going under the radar a bit, even though he’s Tom freaking Brady.

I would start Randy Moss over Welker for sure if it was a non PPR, and in a basic coin toss for a PPR league, I think the 51% chance of Moss having the better day wins out, he’s more of a big play touch down guy, and I think that’s enough to make him the guy. Though I would have gone Wes over Greg or Calvin, but that’s obviously an easy call to make now. We’ll see how it works out.

I would go with Greg Olsen over John Carslon. The Vikings give up plenty of points to opposing tight ends, and Lucky thinks the Bears have a chance to get right up there all close like with the Vikings this week – Olsen will play a huge role if that comes true. Good luck for the rest of the week!

Papas Picks: Week 11 NFL Underdogs! Jets, Raiders, Rams

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I’m buying what the dogs are selling. That’s right, I believe last week’s winners weren’t a fluke. I’m going back to them and the big points they are getting!

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Tennessee Titans (+4.5) @ Houston Texans: Vince is back baby! Okay, maybe Chris Johnson is the guy flourishing, but the Titans continue to win when Vince is at the helm, undefeated since his return to the top spot, and I think that continues. They were good last year, they’ve been good lately! I’m buying in for +4.5! You bet!

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+10): Yeah, I know, the Rams didn’t win last week you say, well they did in my book, and every other sports book. As you well know, the winners don’t always win in this game. The Rams have been awesome on the ground, running on everyone lately – that has to continue for them to have a chance, but the Cardinals are known to throw up a stinker form time to time – and Steven Jackson can keep the Rams close.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5): What do all the Saints recent struggles have in common? Well, they’ve won them all, but they’ve lost ATS or struggled in games Sedrick Ellis has missed. He’s out again, and with no dominant run stuffer to clog the middle, the Saints D just ins’t the same. Plus, Tampa has played well of late, giving many a team hell. The rookie QB, Josh Freeman, has been plenty good to cover them spreads.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5): I can’t believe I’m getting 11.5 for the Chiefs in KC. That’s awesome. The Steelers have blown two teams out this year, and the Chiefs (while only winning two of their last 5) have covered 4 games in their last 5 chances. The short passing game of the Chiefs should cut down on the Steelers explosive blitzes, I think the Chiefs cover their 5th in 6 games.

Washington Redskins (+11) @ Dallas Cowboys: I like the Redskins here. What can I say, their defense is too good to get 11 from Dallas, and this is a big rivalry game. The Redskins may be 3-6, 2-6-1 ATS, but they’ve had some close games against good teams, and they won last week, beating up on the Broncos. I believe!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 11 Fantasy Football Questions

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Remember, hit me up with football questions at papaweimer50@hotmail.com…

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Alright folks, I don’t have any crazy into this week, just some fantasy questions and answers. Well I do have one thing, injuries suck and they can derail fantasy seasons. And in the NFL it can certainly be tough, but nothing is more ridiculous than NBA Fantasy Basketball and the injuries that go down in that crap. I finally told Lucky I’d play fantasy hoops with him, and I swear I have more “day-to-day” “questionable” “probable” “out” “out indefinitely” stupid reports about my players than I even have roster spots. What a joke. If football players didn’t play with things like sprained thumbs and strained calves, NFL games would stop after Week 4. Here’s my Q and A for Week 11!

Miguel writes, “Thank you so much for your detailed response last time; it really was good help! This week, I am in a spot trying to determine who to start at RB.  This is a PPR league that counts return yards. I can pick two between – Brandon Jacobs, Justin Forsett and LeSean McCoy. Thanks for the help!”

Miguel,  Glad I could help, and hope you enjoy the site.  I would go with Brandon Jacobs and McCoy – both McCoy and Forsett have their downsides in their match-up. 1 – the Hawks play the Vikings 2 – the Eagles love to pass the ball, hate running it. But without Westy in there, I think McCoy gets some targets in the passing game. 5-8 catches wouldn’t surprise me at all. I LOVE Justin Forsett’s ability, I’ve been begging Jim Mora to play that guy since about Week 3, and he finally got touches and put up big numbers against a dominate run defense in Arizona last week. But I still think Jim Mora is too stupid to give Forsett 20 touches this week against the Vikings. There’s very little room to run in Minnesota, and I think Hasselbeck will be looking for his receivers out wide against a Vikes secondary playing without Antoine Winfield. I think your best bets are McCoy and Jacobs.

Stanleigh in Cali says, ” I am getting hammered the last two weeks and have slipped to 4th place with two consecutive losses. Need a “W” this week and always appreciate your words of wisdom. Would you start Thomas Jones and Betts this week over Matt Forte or Justin Forsett? How about Marshall, Hester and Jennings over Hakeem Nicks?”

I might start Forte over Betts, Betts has a so/so to tough match-up, but I think Forte could catch a lot of balls against the Eagles – and Philly doesn’t have the greatest rush defense either. The Bears suck, but you might as well go down with your top pick and if he’s every going to do anything, this week in a huge Sunday Night game against Philadelphia is the right time. Other than that, yeah, I like your chances this week. Marshall could blow up against the Chargers, despite their solid pass D rating, Jennings has pretty easy match-ups going forward, it sure would help me out if he started catching touch down passes – and as for Hester, I don’t know, he’s probably your best bet for looks, because Jay loves to throw the ball, but Hakeem Nicks against the Falcons might be a nice chance for big points – Nicks is a stud, and while he shares starter minutes with Manningham, Nicks has proven to have the better hands – and while he’s more of a risk than Hester, he could capitalize on that solid match-up. Tough call, I think I’d stick with Hester based on his higher number of targets and the Eagles give up some big plays just about every week. Fantasy can get you down, no doubt, I’ve had a tough couple weeks in 2 of my leagues, keep losing by a couple every week. Tough deal.

And here’s one from last week that went well for Tami, she wrote, “SO I think I need some advice this week. So far, I’m 9-0 in a point per yard league. This week though, I’m torn with my RB and QB. Do I start Aaron Rodgers or Joe Flacco?? Flacco had a great game against Cle in week 3 but Rodgers has done great things for me this year.”

Tami,  Joe Flacco or Aaron Rodgers huh, I think I would go with Rodgers. Flacco’s match-up is solid, no doubt, and he did throw for 300 million yards last time he faced the Browns, but Rodgers has 6 consecutive multiple touchdown games. The Packers throw way too often, which isn’t good for winning actual football games, but come fantasy football, that’s exactly what you want. He’s thrown for 260+ yards 6 times in 8 games. That’s pretty impressive, plus, against a pass rush even better than the Cowboys’ and a very similar secondary (maybe Bid D’s is a little better than Minnesota’s, but it’s close) Rodgers threw for 380+ yards and 2 touchdowns, then 286 yards and 3 touchdowns – so he’s had success against the big aggressive defenses. Flacco’s a solid option, I just think they run the ball more this time out.

And here’s the other piece of advice I gave Tami that didn’t go so well, “Also, do I start Brown or Mendenhall? Brown has been in a small slump and Mendenhall got my win last week. My other backs are Adrian Peterson and Ricky Williams. Any advice is appreciated!”

So you need to start three, and you’re already starting Ricky Williams and Adrian Peterson? I think I would add Ronnie Brown to that mix if I had the choice between him and Mendenhall – however, Mendenhall and Ricky Williams would be the two guys I’m debating. On one hand you have Mendenhall, a big tough runner that has had some big games so far this year, including putting up 155 yards against a very tough Denver run defense, (I think he had 120 in the 2nd half alone, and it’s not like he had any long touchdown runs to pad his per carry stats). On the other hand, you have Ricky, a guy that’s played awesome this year, and has become a huge part of that rushing attack, and he’s playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense of all defenses – his stock is shooting up. It’s hard to start two running backs from the same team, but if there’s any situation where that would be a solid option, it would be Miami at home against Tampa Bay.

However, after considering everything, I think I’d pick AP, Ronnie Brown, and Mendenhall. I just want to buy into the Steelers committing to the run. Since he became the starter in Week 4, Rashard has not rushed for less than 62 yards, (165, 77, 62, 69, 155) and has rushed for fewer than 5.1 yards per carry just once. He’s had good numbers per carry against good defenses, (6.9 against Minnesota, 7.0 against Denver) so you wouldn’t think he’d be eliminated by the Bengals D. It’s a tough choice, definitely, but his consistency, and the fact that Ricky has rushed for fewer than 60 yards on 4 different occasions, plus just 27 and 33 yards the last two weeks, I’d have to go with Rashard. If you’re picking two guys, I would probably stick with AP and Ronnie Brown.

How’s a guy supposed to know that Ronnie Brown is getting hurt and Ricky will carry more than he’s carried all season. I hope you got the win anyway, Tami! Sorry!

Papas Picks: Week 10 NFL Underdogs! Lions, Bengals, Bills, Seahawks

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Last week I marched to my old ace drum, and what do you know, I came out aces, going 3-1 with my only ATS loss coming when the freaking Seahawks flew in late, just in the nick of time, taking a meaningless last minute interception to the house, getting Lucky Lester and the rest of the Hawks backers a win despite being outplayed throughout. But still, a tough loss, I’ll take 3-1 with a tough loss. You like underdogs? I sure do – here’s my top underdogs in Week 10.

Detroit Lions (+17) @ Minnesota Vikings: There’s not much to say about this one, except last time Detroit played the Vikings, the Lions played them tough. This is a 17 point spread, I’ll basically take anyone and 17 points – this one just proves it.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I get that extra half a point from 5 Dimes, I have to take this one. Lucky has said all along that these two teams are basically equal, and from what I’ve read, the home team doesn’t dominate this series. Cinci’s been great, I think they continue and keep this one close. 7.5, really? Has what Cincinnati has done meant nothing?

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Please. The Titans have won 2 in a row, that doesn’t mean they’re back to being the same team that won 13 straight to start the 2008 season. The Titans haven’t looked good enough to be a 9.5 point favorite against anyone, especially a Bills team that’s good at stopping an offense if they do just 1 thing. All the Titans do is run. This one will be closer.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Arizona Cardinals: Listen, the Cardinals have been so up and down this year, and not very good at home, I’ll even take the Hawks against them. Seattle is coming off a bye week, something their injured list desperately needed, and I think it helps them against the Cardinals. Last time out, the Cards did exactly what Lucky thought they’d do, beating up the Hawks in all aspects. But Seattle isn’t as bad as their record insists, and I think they come out with a little pride in a game that has basically come down to being their season.