Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16) Free Football Pick: The last time these two played the line was (-10) in Detroit, and it was actually pretty close to a Lions cover. This time it’s (-16) and it’s not like people think of either of these teams any differently. They still think the Vikings are legit and they know the Lions smell like… Sour beans. So, I would say this line is inflated a couple points – it should probably be 13.5, maybe, at the very most 14 – but it’s on the move and already up to 17 at a couple books. But I’m not scared.
Okay, I’m a little scared – I don’t like taking anybody at -16. This is pro football and if you’re ever a 16 point dog you are probably a good value bet. But even good value bets lose. And the way Matthew Stafford has been playing, and the way Minnesota just got two weeks to heal up and prepare for a Lions team that just pissed away a 17 point lead against the Seahawks a week ago, I just have to go against value and stick with Adrian Peterson and company.
Only 3 of the Lions 7 losses are by 16 points or more. They lost by 18 to New Orelans in Week 1. They were tied at 21 with the Bears in Chicago at half time, but they were outscored 27-3 in the second half and lost by 24. And they got shut out by the Packers 26-0. Last time around, Minnesota fought back after being down 10-7 at half time to win by two touchdowns and cover the 10 point spread.
The Lions have been double digit underdogs five times this year (which is amazing all by itself) and in those five games, they’ve lost against the spread four times (which is even more amazing. As double digit favorites this year, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS.
So, all things considered, all values ignored, I’ll put a little on the Vikings expecting more problems from Detroit.