NFL Week 17 Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns

NFL Week 17 Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns: With the Jaguars still in the playoff hunt (though their shot is longer than that pass Mike Vick threw in that Gatorade commercial before “the incident”) and a meager Cleveland Browns team between them and a shot at a possible post-season appearance, I just can’t see them blowing it again. I know it’s kind of their bag, but at some point it has to change, and while I don’t expect a win to actually get them into the show, losing to the Browns in what is essentially an elimination game for the Jags seems too much like Jacksonville for it actually to happen. That’s probably not a good enough reason, but it’s something.

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Then you have Jacksonville being just flat out better than Cleveland. And any team can play well for a few weeks, shoot, even the Bucs are on the verge of a three game winning streak, but that doesn’t make them a good team. The same can be said for Cleveland, obviously they’ve been bad all year for a reason, and that reason is that they are bad. The Jaguars will put 9 guys in the box if they have to, and Derek Anderson hasn’t, in the last couple years, shown me that he can hit a barn from the hay stack. Advantage Jacksonville.

Then you have this guy named Maurice Jones Drew, one of the best players in football, and a guy that absolutely wants the game resting on his back. Well, despite failing to involve him enough all season long, the Jaguars have no choice but to feed him 30 touches in this game. And without an elite pass-rush, or even a solid one, the Browns will give up too many chunks of yards to Garrard in the passing game. Those things add right up to a Jaguars win in Cleveland. In fact, I don’t know how this game has the line it has.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Cleveland Browns.

New Year's Eve Bowl Games: Free College Football Picks

The amount of college games on the docket right now is a little overbearing, so I’m going to go ahead and write a little less about each game, include them into one article, and cut down on the amount of computer hours I’m putting in these last few weeks. Don’t worry, I’ll still have some of the bigger games of the College Bowl season with bigger write ups, so keep checking in. And don’t feel like I’m ripping you off, the same amount of research goes into these picks as any write up I do for any other pick I do all year. Here goes Thursday’s Bowl Games…

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Air Force Falcons @ Houston Cougars (-4.5): The quick little bit of information I gave on this game in my weekly newsletter still has me liking the Cougars to pull it out over the Falcons. I said the Falcons have been blistered by elite passing attacks, and in their last 3 losses they were out-gained through the air by 550+ yards. I think the Cougars have a chance to do that again.

Stanford Cardinal (+10) @ Oklahoma Sooners: I know the Pac 10 has been brutal, and I know the Cardinal are without their freshman sensation at running back, but something in me just trusts Jim Harbaugh to get his team prepared for this big game. Since he got on campus as the head man at Stanford, he’s had his kids ready to play better than expected, especially against elite opponents. They have a stellar rushing attack, and not just at running back, their offensive line is one of the best in the country. That should be worth a 10 point cover.

Navy Midshipmen (+7) @ Missouri Tigers: Navy has out-rushed their opponent in 8 of their last 10 games, winning 7 of those match-ups. Missouri was out-gained on the ground in 4 of their last 8 games, and in all four they recorded the loss. It’s not as good as gold, but with a touchdown to play with, I  sure like the consistent and disciplined Navy Midshipmen.

Iowa State Cyclones (+3) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: Neither of these teams really impress me, but I know what I think about the Big 10, and while the Big 12 is a little overrated, they are much better than the Big 10. Both teams were terribly inconsistent, playing with Top 25 talent one week while getting beaten up other weeks – the one thing keeping me with Iowa is that Minnesota gives up lots of rushing yards, and Iowa State has shown the ability to win when they can run.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-4.5): The SEC really embarrassed the ACC toward the end of the year in some inter-conference match-ups, but I don’t see that happening here. Tennessee has gone through to stuff with some trouble within the program towards the end of the season, and while they played well in some games down the stretch, I think all that attention hurts them a bit against the Hokies. Va Tech won 4 straight to end the season, never giving up more than 13 points and out-scoring their opponents 132-35 in those games. Your can run on Tennessee, and the Vols don’t throw the ball real well – both those statistical advantages look to really favor the Hokies in this one.

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 16 2009 Predictions

You know what they say, if you’re going to do something you might as well do it right. Okay, maybe I made that up, or maybe they say something similar to that, but it works for Week 16 as I ended up winning twice as many as I lost, and came away with yet another winning week. Single roll freaking Yahtzee! Here’s how my 10-5-1 Week 16 went down…

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San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans (WINNER)  The Chargers made quick work of the Titans, and Tennessee couldn’t get that 2nd win over an above .500 team. Chris Johnson still did work though, and you can bet I’ll be all over the Titans against the Hawks next week.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons (Loss) The Bills couldn’t compete. If this team doesn’t have a new coaching staff within a week of the regular season ending, I’ll be stunned. The Falcons came out doing dirty work from the get go, getting people involved early, and dominating the Bills throughout.

Kansas City Chiefs (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WINNER) You can count this game as a lesson learned, I fully expected the Chiefs to lose, but have seen the Bengals barely win too many games this season. Put another “close win” notch on their resume, a late TD to Ochocinco gave the Bengals a touchdown win.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (WINNER) The Browns ran the ball, and while their best back (Harrison has been their best back for the last three years) didn’t have his best yard per carry day, he did control the game rushing more than 35 times and getting close to 150 yards on the day. As I said, the Browns didn’t need much QB help after all.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5) (WINNER)This game was over by the time Ryan Grant got his first carry. The big back ran downhill and the Hawks didn’t seem to fond of catching him. Two touchdowns, and some easy passes from Rodgers, an interception filled day from Hasselcrack – it was an easy win indeed.

Houston Texans (+3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) As I said, the Texans are the better team, and here they are going for an outside shot at the playoffs. Houston’s defense played very well, and that’s because they are good. Weird. Who knew? Me.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-7) (Loss) The mighty Giants are a mess, and out of the playoffs, what a shame, no post-season looks of disgust from Eli’s frowny little face… The Panthers straight crushed the Giants, and the win apparently kept John Fox his job – great – another year of falling behind by a score early and completely abandoning the run – ugh.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (Loss)The Patriots seem to have it figured out, or maybe they just played a Jacksonville team that always seems to put up soaked baby diapers when it matters most. Coaching… Anyway, New England tossed touchdown after touchdown early, giving the slow moving Jags offense no chance for success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints (WINNER) The Bucs won outright, and they did it in pretty physically dominant fashion. Tampa controlled the line of scrimmage, and now the Saints are flailing to the finish.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PUSH) As it was, a tough game to call indeed. It ended up in a push as the Steelers hit a field goal to win it. Baltimore had plenty of chances, that’s for sure, but numerous mistakes haunted them and leave them needing a win to see the playoffs in the final week. I got the push, but I hate pushes.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WINNER) The Broncos fought hard and could have easily come out of Philly with a win, but Donovan McNabb through a missile to Jeremy Maclin that the rookie caught just before falling out of bounds, that’s when the game was over as Philly had to just run out the clock and kick a short field goal.

St. Louis Rams (+15.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (Loss) The heart and soul of the Rams offense, one of the best players in football, Steven Jackson, was a late scratch, and I have to believe, that if he was healthy, this would have been a cover. But what can a guy do? Lose with class I guess..

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-11) (WINNER) Frank Gore was the best player on the field on Sunday, and the 49ers finally got back to realizing that as the compact running back marched for 150 yards from scrimmage, got 28 carries, and pounded the Lions all day.

New York Jets (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts (WINNER) Well, the better team was Indy, but as I said, that wouldn’t matter when you teamed up the Colts sitting their guys before the game was over and the Jets needing a win to see the playoffs – those two things got New York the game, and me a nice win. “Easy peazy japenesey.”

Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ Washington Redskins (WINNER) It’s pretty clear I have the Redskins pretty well pegged, and those weeks of playing solid football look to be over.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears (Loss) Well, what can a guy do? The Vikings were beat up by the Bears, and though the final score shows an overtime loss, it looked worse than that. Minnesota had some huge plays just to get back in it, and one has to wonder if the Vikings are who we thought they were, or a greater version of the Panthers?

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Arizona Wildcats: Pacific Life Holiday Bowl

I got the Cornhuskers early, and I’m grateful for it as the spread has jumped to -3 for Nebraska, but I still think they are a solid bet as field goal favorites. It hasn’t been all bad for the Pac-10 – what started out looking like a conference ready for a tough run in the bowls has turned around after those two early losses. USC fought back and got the Pac-10 their first win, and UCLA came back from a 4th quarter deficit to beat the Temple Owls. Now the Pac-10 is 2-2 and looking decent, at the very least. But will that change?

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I believe the Pac-10 takes a hit on Wednesday. While the game is once again being played in Pac-1o county (doesn’t it seem like all the Pac-10 involved Bowl Games end up being close to home games?) I still think the Cornhuskers end up too tough a match-up for Arizona. And nearly 62% of the public bet agrees with me – ugh – one of the times I’m not too fond of strength in numbers.

What I see from Nebraska is a run-first team that played their best football down the stretch, came a second away from beating the #2 ranked Texas Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship, and out-rushed 8 of the last 10 teams they went up against, winning 5 of their last 6. Defensively, they are just a heck of a lot better than people think. The Cornhuskers do their best work against teams with winning records, something I think continues during the Bowl season.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (pk) vs Arizona Wildcats

Bowling Green Falcons vs Idaho Vandals: Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

These two teams are the same. Both have had a lot of success against teams they should and can beat, and both really struggled against the “good” mid-major teams in their conferences. Idaho has forever been that “other” team in Idaho, and being that I still think they are a little better than Bowling Green. Nobody knows about them and I think they are a better team, well, that’s one hell of a great betting combination in my book!

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Bowling Green was 7-5 SU and against the spread, just like Idaho. The Falcons were 4-2 on the road, a game better than the Vandals 3-3 mark away from Idaho. The Falcons have won 4 straight games and 6 of 7 after losing four out of five games to start the season. But it’s not all about their play, their schedule has gotten a lot easier since their begin to the year. The bottom line is that Bowling green hasn’t beaten a single opponent with a winning record since the first game of the season.

Idaho, like I said, hasn’t fared much better against their toughest competition. Idaho has lost three straight coming into the post-season, and 4 of 5 Ls in their last 5 games. But a lot of that struggle has to do with their level of competition. 3 of their last 5 games were against Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada, the three best teams in the WAC. I like Idaho to step it up against mediocre competition and get a win for the WAC.

Bowling Green @ Idaho Vandals (+2)

Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers: Champs Sports Bowl

Right off the bat the Hurricanes come in with a big home-field advantage, as this game is being played in their home state, Orlando, against a Big 10 school from the Midwest. The Hurricanes have a heap of top-flight speedy athletes, consistently prepare well with long breaks, and have played well at home all season long. Wisconsin probably doesn’t have the speed they’ll need to compete with Miami, plus they’ve covered on the road only twice all season long, at Minnesota and against at Hawaii. That doesn’t really win me over on the Badgers.

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One thing Wisconsin has done is out-rush every single one of their last 10 opponents, but that hasn’t really meant victory for them. They’ve lost 3 of their last 7 games, and haven’t beat a “good” team yet this year. Every time they had a chance to prove their worth, they’ve fallen to the Big 10’s top teams, losing to Iowa and Ohio State – they didn’t play Penn State, and they also lost to Northwestern.

Miami has also struggled against top-tier teams, losing to Clemson, North Carolina, and virginia Tech. They did beat Oklahoma and Georgia Tech earlier in the season, also smacking around a decent South Florida team to end the year.

Both teams are 9-3 SU this season, and both have been much better at home than on the road. That should be key in this one as I’ll take Miami playing in Orlando.

Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Wisconsin Badgers:

UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls: EagleBank Bowl Prediction

UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls: EagleBank Bowl Prediction: Right off the bat, more of the public bet is going to be on the Bruins because they are UCLA, a big college name from a big college conference. But if you start to look at the reality of bowl games, the struggles the Pac 10 have had thus far, and how small college schools come out trying to prove their worth in the face of those big schools, the 57% public bet on UCLA is probably unfounded.

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First of all, the 6-6 Bruins won three games to start their season, a win over Tennessee and Kansas State both look solid now, but what have they done in the last 9 games? They’ve beaten Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State – they lost to everyone else. Basically, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 3 of the season. Those three wins to get them bowl eligible came against the very bottom of the Pac-10, well, the bottom not counting themselves.

Temple comes in with their most successful regular season in 30 years, going 9-3 and 8-3 ATS. This is their first bowl game in three decades. They were 4-2 SU on the road, 5-1 ATS. The Owls are committed to a run-heavy scheme, as they’ve out-rushed 9 of their last 10 opponents, and really lean on that run-game. In thier last 10 games, the UCLA Bruins have been out-rushed 6 times. In those 6 games, they’ve lost 5 – their only win was a 24-23 win over Washington in a game the Huskies gave away.

Names and mascots aside, you have to like Temple in this one.

UCLA Bruins @ Temple Owls (+5)

Texas A&M vs Georgia Bulldogs: Independence Bowl Pick

The public percentage on this is pretty much even, but I like the Bulldogs to win by double digits. I know Georgia’s defense hasn’t been what it was in the past, but A&M gives up massive amounts of points like it’s their job. In recent losses to Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas, the Aggies have given up 35 points, 65 points, and 49 points (dis)respectively.

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The Aggies are 6-6 SU this season, 6-5-1 ATS, and 8-4 O/U. They average 33.9 points per game while giving up 32.7. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, and 6 of their last 9 to just barely squeak into the Bowl season. Quarterback Jerod Johnson has 28 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions, as his stellar offensive leadership has led the Aggies to the post season despite their porous defense.

The Bulldogs are 7-5 SU this season, but just 4-8 ATS, having a tough times with the teams they were supposed to beat easily. They were 5-6-1 O/U this season. But the Bulldogs have won 3 of their last 4, and seem to be playing their best football of the season. In all four of their final games, Georgia out-gained their opponent on the ground, setting up a nice offensive game plan. They beat both Auburn and Georgia Tech down the stretch, and their single loss in those last 4 games was against Florida.

Recently, Georgia has shown me the offensive firepower that suggests they won’t be out-scored by A&M which means the Aggies will have to stop the Bulldogs a few times if they want to take home the prize. I’m not sure they can do that, so I’m going the other way.

Texas A&M Aggies @ Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5)

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Monday Night Football Pick

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Monday Night Football Pick: The Vikings have played more close games than you’d think, and they haven’t been playing thier best football lately, losing two of three including an embarrassing loss in Carolina to the Panthers. There’s been some problems reported with Brett Favre and head coach Brad Childress, with questions as to who’s in charge. Now that we have that all cleared up, and everyone knows that Brett’s in charge, I think the Vikings will turn it around in Week 16.

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More important that what the Vikings will be doing is the team they are going to be playing. And I know it’s been a disappointing year for Carolina, and the Panthers haven’t played well, but it’s tough to match up with how poorly the Bears have fared after all the pre-season hype.

Who looks like the dummy now folks? All that talk about how stupid Josh McDaniels was for trading away Jay Cutler for a bunch of picks and Kyle Orton seems like rubbish now, doesn’t it? Kyle and the Broncos are on the verge of a playoff birth while Jay and the Bears are a couple wins away from, just 7 freaking wins. That’s right, Chicago is guaranteed a losing season, and lately, they’ve been playing like the bottom tier in the NFL.

Just last week, the Bears made the Ravens offense look like the greatest show on turf, and they’ve lost 6 of 7 to boot. Chicago is just a bad football team, and there’s not much more to say about it. Minnesota better get it right here, if not now than never.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins Sunday Night Football: Wow. It’s been a tough year for the Redskins. For their fans, for the team, and especially for the coaches. Just this week, one of the teams best players, one of the highest paid guys in the league, flat out said the defensive coordinator ran a system that doesn’t work. Perfect. And I was taking the Cowboys way before any of that business came out. This game has moved 3 or 4 points in just about every book, as most sites post the game at -7 for the road Cowboys.

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It’s crazy, and not my style, but I still like the Cowboys. I think Dallas finally got over that big “late season swoon” crap when they beat the Saints on Saturday Night Football last week – ending the Saints’ run at undefeated, and allowing the Cowboys to start their own streak for the playoffs. The only thing in their way from 10 wins are the Washington Redskins, and what better an opportunity could there be?

Washington had been playing very well until reality hit. I predicted they’d get back to playing some bad football, and that’s exactly what they did. And I think they continue on that downward facing dog yoga pose. The team seems lost, finally gone, and with this coaching staff headed out the minute after the season finishes, I think the team has finally checked out as well. One team’s going up, the other right down, easy enough for me!

Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ Washington Redskins