Fantasy Focus: NFL Week 3

Week 3 fantasy football is upon us, and here we are, dancing around some tough plays this coming weekend. The match-ups are in, the staff has been polled, and we have all the predicted rankings heading into Week 3. I’ve taken the top spot (Lucky Lester) each of the first two weeks, but it’s close, and I know I have some guys out to take my crown. Once again, I’ve listed my 4 levels of plays, elites, solids, sleepers, and no-nos, I hope they help. Josh, Papa, Red Red Ryan, and I have our rankings further down the page. I hope you enjoy it all!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew – I don’t think the Texans can stop MJD, ala Chris Johnson last week.
2. Andre Johnson – That being said, I’m not so sure the Jaguars can stop the Texans either, I’ll take AJ.
3. Drew Brees – He has to come back to earth one of these days, dude can’t throw 72 touchdowns. Not this week.
4. Matt Schaub – Two weeks in a row at the top? You bet.
5. Brandon Jacobs – It’s been a slow start for the beast, enter the Buccaneers as unlucky opponent in Week 3.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Ray Rice– I think Ray will be the top scoring back on the Ravens team this week against Cleveland.
2. Ryan Grant – The Packers haven’t been dedicated to the run this year, I think that changes this week.
3. Larry Johnson– Questions surrounding Larry, I think he has a nice game this week.
4. Dwayne Bowe – Big nasty receiver going against the Eagles, and I think KC will be down – I like this pick.
5. Braylon Edwards – Drop a couple, catch a couple, he’ll have plenty of opportunities down early.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Mario Manningham – Yeah, I like what I saw, me and every other guy.
2. David Garrard – I’d take him a lot of weeks, should be real good against Houston.
3. Trent Edwards –Both teams should have lots of snaps and score lots of points. Even in a loss I like Trent.
4.Fred Jackson– If he’s a beast one more week, does he keep the starting job when Lynch comes back?
5. Jabar Gaffney – The Raiders will take away the top guys, but Gaffney should find room. Good sleeper pick.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai – The Cardinals are very tough against the run, shutting down two studs in Gore and MJD.
2. Cedric Benson – His style versus the Steelers is not a good match-up for his fantasy owners.
3. Willie Parker – I don’t know if Willie will have too many more big games, the Bengals are tough on the run.
4. Bernard Berrien – Is he even the #1 receiver anymore, either way, Nate Clements should shut him down.
5. Chris Johnson – Can you sit this guy? Probably not, but if you have other options I’d suggest it.

PS – Don’t start injured or suspended players, it makes you look dumb.

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault	        Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees    	1.Drew Brees		1.Peyton Manning	1.Drew Brees
2.Tom Brady     	2.Aaron Rodgers 	2.Tom Brady     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Phillip Rivers 	3.Matt Schaub     	3.Drew Brees     	3.Peyton Manning
4.Aaron Rodgers   	4.Peyton Manning	4.David Garrard 	4.Tony Romo
5.Carson Palmer  	5.Trent Edwards 	5.Aaron Rodgers		5.Tom Brady
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Michael Turner	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew
2.Maurice Jones-Drew	2.Brandon Jacobs	2.Steve Slaton  	2.Brandon Jacobs
3.Adrian Peterson	3.Ronnie Brown  	3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.Adrian Peterson
4.Matt Forte		4.Matt Forte    	4.Fred Jackson  	4.Matt Forte
5.Clinton Portis	5.Steven Jackson	5.Clinton Portis  	5.Ryan Grant

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Randy Moss		1.Andre Johnson   	1.Larry Fitzgerald	1.Andre Johnson
2.Larry Fitzgerald	2.Reggie Wayne  	2.Reggie Wayne		2.Randy Moss
3.Reggie Wayne   	3.Randy Moss		3.Steve Smith (NYG)    	3.Reggie Wayne
4.Andre Johnson 	4.Greg Jennings		4.Andre Johnson 	4.Steve Smith (CAR)
5.Steve Smith (CAR)  	5.Santonio Holmes	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Jericho Cotchery

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Chris Cooley  	1.Jeremy Shockey	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Antonio Gates
2.Tony Gonzalez		2.Tony Gonzalez		2.John Carlson  	2.Dallas Clark
3.John Carlson		3.Dustin Keller		3.Tony Gonzalez 	3.Jason Witten
4.Antonio Gates 	4.Dallas Clark  	4.Owen Daniels		4.Chris Cooley
5.Jason Witten   	5.Owen Daniels   	5.Jason Witten		5.Tony Gonzalez

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Ravens		1.Ravens		1.Bears 		1.Ravens
2.Redskins		2.Broncos       	2.Steelers		2.Packers
3.Packers		3.Giants		3.Eagles		3.Broncos
4.Broncos		4.Bears  		4.Packers		4.Redskins
5.Vikings		5.Redskins		5.Redskins		5.Eagles

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The three other guys would rather kick Lucky than rank kickers, so no dice on the K rankings!

2009 Tiered Fantasy Rankings: Tight Ends

TE’s are kind of an afterthought on draft day, I never spend much on them (in terms of auction dollars or high draft picks) but a consistent point scorer at TE is tough to come by. I’ve always figured that if you don’t get a Top 5 guy, one should just wait until the end to take a chance on a kid with high upside. This year seems a little different in my book, as many young pass catching TE’s have nice upside in ’09. Not only that but after the Top 5, there’s plenty of guys that could have big years, and should put up points week in and week out. Not much seperates the 2nd class from themselves, but hopefully my tiers can help you out with the Top 25 TE’s in ’09.

I

  1. Jason Witten (1)
  2. Antonio Gates (2)
  3. Dallas Clark (3)
  4. Tony Gonzalez (4)

This is the top tier, and top it is. The rest of the TE’s aren’t likely to finish in the Top 4, as these guys basically have the spot on lockdown. Witten is my #1 because he’s a TE and a #1 option on his offense without too much taking away touches from him. Think Tony Gonzalez in KC last season, but a better QB for Witten in Dallas. Gates is still a stud despite injuries nagging on his numbers the last couple years. Despite Vincent Jackson’s rise in SD, Gates is still the #1 receiving option, and I expect him to have his best season in the last 3 years. Dallas Clark will be Peyton Manning’s #2 or #3 this season. With Marvin gone, Anthony G and Clark will get a majority of Marvin’s old target, which makes Clark that much more of a solid TE. Tony G might be the best TE of all time, no doubt about it, but he is in a new offense with a lot of talent surrounding him. He’ll do big things in Atlanta, but I don’t think there’s enough balls to get Gonzo as many catches as he had last season. He’s still a top tier guy, but the bottom of that barrell.

II

  1. Chris Cooley (5)
  2. Kellen Winslow (6)

All by themselves in my second tier are Chris Cooley and Kellen Winslow. Cooley never really gets his due, and despite a semi-slow year for the Redskin passing attack in ’08, Cooley should be back in the Top 5 in ’09. Cooley is a big reliable target for Jason Campbell, a quarterback I see taking a big jump in 2009. With much of the focus on Portis and Moss, Cooley will find himself collecting fantasy points like Bengals collect arrests. Kellen Winslow is in a new uniform in ’09 and he’s still one of the most talented TEs out there. Winslow might not have the best QB getting him the ball, but he will have plenty of opportunities to make himself a valueable option for fantasy owners. He’s risky, but the kid is tough and plays through bumps and bruises and low grade muscle tears. I don’t think you’ll regret having Winslow fill your TE spot.

III

  1. Owen Daniels (7)
  2. Zach Miller (8)
  3. Greg Olson (9)
  4. John Carlson (10)

Owen Daniels is the highest returning scorer of this group, and a good argument could be made for him being included in the 2nd tier, but this is my ranking system and I’ll do what I want. Owen sure accumulates the catches, but I think Slaton gets more involved this year, Schaub likes to throw to his receivers, and something in me just sees Owen taking a tiny little step backwards. Still a solid TE option, but not a Top 5 guy. Zach Miller is a stud. JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders look like they are going to be better offensively this season. McFadden is going to play well and the other Raider runners will draw attention too. Russell likes going to Miller, and why not? Sure hands, big body, a QB’s best friend. Greg Olson is shooting up draft boards everywhere because he and Jay Cutler apparently have “chemistry” – ooh that sexy little word. One thing is true, Olson just jacked the starting TE job in Chicago. Another thing, he’s probably got the best hands amongst receivers. Cutler likes it when his guys catch his passes. Not a Top 5 guy in my opinion, but he’s in the Top 10, and his upside is nice. Carlson looks good to me too. I know Jim Mora likes utilizing talented tight ends, and Carlson proved he was one of those in his rookie season where he was the best pass catcher in Seattle. This year he might not lead the team in catches, but he’ll get his fair share, especially if the Hawks offense improves as much as I think they will.

IV

  1. Jeremy Shockey (11)
  2. Visanthe Shiancoe (12)
  3. Tony Scheffler (13)
  4. Anthony Fasano (14)
  5. Dustin Keller (15)
  6. Chase Coffman (16)
  7. Vernon Davis (17)
  8. Brandon Petitgrew (18)
  9. Kevin Boss (19)
  10. Heath Miller (20)
  11. Todd Heap (21)
  12. Bo Scaife (22)
  13. Brent Celek (23)
  14. Jermichael Finley (24)

You’re in a weird league if you need 24 ranked TEs, but if you need more than that I can’t help you. If you think I’m not a fan of TE’s, you’re right on the button. But they are a nessecary evil in most situations, and any of these guys could give you what you need: a big athletic lineman type player that lucks out and catches a touchdown now and then. Right, so Shockey heads my list because he has high upside, a starting job, and he’s real athletic when he catches the ball. He’s in the same tier as unproven TEs that may or may not fizzle out and become nothing because of the whole “when he catches the ball” thing. But he could be great. Shaincoe is very underrated, so I put him here. I think Rosenfels will look for him often. Fasano is solid, will get points and his 15 yard routes are perfect because that’s where Chad Pennington’s arm limits out. Seriously. Dustin Keller has tons of talent and has the most speed on the list, but Kellen Clemmens scares me and the other option is a rookie. Chase Coffman already had more talent than any other TE in Cinci, but now the other guys are injured, and he might walk into TE production right off the bat. Upside. Speaking of upside, draft bust Vernon Davis might finally be a TE worth having now that Martz is gone (where is Martz these days anyway?). But Vernon knows how to disappoint, click clack style. Petitgrew is a young all around solid TE in an offense that will likely see it’s fair share of Matthew Stafford – and he might be the 2nd best receiving option in Detroit. Kevin Boss, he is the TE for the highest paid QB in the NFL – just saying that makes my puke. But Boss doesn’t have sure-fire receiving options on the outside, and he might be the guy that makes up for Burress’s absence. Miller and Heap. Miller won’t ever be grand but Heap might never be fantasy worthy again. Both have their place though, Miller because he manages to catch TDs and is pretty consistent in points, and Heap because he was pro-bowl material for a few years there. Bo Scaife broke onto the scene last year, but I think his production falls a bit as Collins (or Young) become more confident in the receiving options in Tennessee. Brent Celek put up solid numbers in Philadelphia, and now he’s the main guy at TE in that offense. Still, there’s too many talented players on that team for him to acrue too many numbers, right? And last is a back-up, with lots of upside, Finley. Green Bay really likes this kid, but he’s also option #6 or so, just like Celek, but keep an eye out!