Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

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This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots: AFC Playoff Prediction

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots, AFC Playoff Prediction: Like I said earlier in the week in my Just Picks newsletter, the Patriots rarely lose games against an opponent without an elite passing attack. Now, the Ravens are much better this season than they’ve been in years’ past, and Joe Flacco has definitely grown as a pro-quarterback in his sophomore season, but the Ravens are far from elite in the passing game.

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In the running game, they are as scary, if not more-so than ever before. Ray Rice has transformed into one of the game’s most explosive rushing/receiving threats out of the backfield, and Willis McGahee has shown brilliant flashes of his old self when given the opportunity to run the ball. As an offensive line, the Ravens have dominated the line of scrimmage this season.

The question will be, can the Ravens keep up with the Patriots offense. And that depends which offense shows up. Already, the Patriots will be without their leading receiver this season, as Wes Welker and his 120+ receptions suffered a bad knee injury in the season finale and will likely be out into next season. But Julian Edelman is a good young player in the Welker mode, and it will likely come down to Tom Brady and the great quarterback’s accuracy. Tom has had his ups and downs this season, a year after shredding his own knee on opening day, and it’s been tough to predict which Brady will show up, and how consistent he’ll be from half to half.

But I like the Patriots in this one. They have an underrated defense, and especially in the run-D aspect of it. They are sure tacklers and have a plethora of sound tacklers. If Brady can find the same holes in the Ravens secondary that other elite passers have found, the Patriots should win and cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3)

Baltimore Ravens vs Oakland Raiders NFL Week 17 Pick

You know what’s interesting about this entire situation? Just gander back at last year’s yarn pile and you’ll find the reason Tom Cable still has a job. And it could happen again this year. Yes, you may have forgotten, but last year the Raiders won their final two games, against Houston and then a huge upset win over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that needed only to win to see the playoffs. Amazing. This year, the Raiders have yet another chance to do it again.

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After just three wins in the first 13 games, the Raiders try to finish the season 2-1 with two crushing wins over playoff hopefuls. Like last year, all their opponent has to do to see the post-season is win. Can Oakland do the dirty two seasons in a row? Tom Cable can only hope.

But then again, what is he really getting? He gets to wear strings and a big lying nose and grant Al Davis’s wishes. Sounds like my worst freaking nightmare. But the Raiders have played well lately under Cable, and give the guy a break, this team makes absolutely terrible roster decisions, drafts the wrong guy as if that’s the goal, and pays old receivers with bad kness 50 million bones to hardly even see the field.

What’s even more important, the Ravens are a terrible match-up for the Raiders. Defensively, the Ravens are good at stopping the only think Oakland does even reasonably well. Offensively, the Ravens do their best work where the Raiders can’t seem to stop anyone. Bingo was his name o.

Balitmore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders

Arses Five Favorites: Week 17 NFL Predictions

Well, I got back on the winning track in Week 16, and while it wasn’t a fantastic four win week like I’m always hoping for, 3-2 brings me to 17-13 during my six week run of free picks. The Falcons, Packers, and Patriots won and covered easily while the Dolphins just failed outright and the Eagles needed a late field goal to win by three. This week seems pretty easy to me. But I’m staying away from those meaningless games that some other people think are gimmies – listen, I know you play hard when you have everything to lose and if the Saints sit all their starters, it should be an easier game for Carolina – but it doesn’t always work out like that, and I’ll pick some games where I’m not relying on a good team to play back-ups. Final regular season week, and here we go, go, go…

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Chicago (-3) @ Detroit: The Bears are an easy pick, so easy that it makes my stomach lurch a little bit – but hey, Vegas can’t be right all the time, right? Right. The Bears need this game, really. They are the only crappy team in the NFL that actually needs wins. Their 1st round pick isn’t theirs, see, they need this one.

The 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis: The Rams are beat up bad, and they aren’t good when healthy. I doubt Steven Jackson gets thrown out there against Patrick Willis and that Niner run D, and without him the Rams are hornless.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami: The Steelers are the better team, and they don’t need magic and religion to get into the playoffs – they need help, don’t get me wrong, but unlike Miami, they don’t need every single team in the NFL to lose on the same day. I see the Steelers, definitely a team that rides ups and downs, flying to their third straight win – but missing the playoffs anyway.

Ravens (-11) @ Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are brutal, and even the Ravens aging secondary should take advantage of that turnover prone passing attack. All the Raiders can do is run, and they can’t stop the run – that’s a bad combo when Baltimore walks into town.

Titans (-5) @ Seattle Seahawks: I can’t wait to see Chris Johnson out-gain the Seahawks on Sunday. The kid is going to go for 400 yards. There will be 12-15 Seahawks playing defense at one time, and he’ll still get his. The Titans should win easily, and Jim Mora should resign due to coaching how to quit.

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Free Football Picks

I had the Steelers to win last week, and while they definitely played better football, and pulled out a win like magicians pull rabbits, they hardly deserved to walk away with victory after giving up 36 points to the Packers. But they did, they got me a win, got themselves a win for the first time in 6 weeks, and set themselves up for another loss to the Ravens.

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You don’t follow? That’s fair, and maybe my reasoning is crazy, but it is what it is and since this is my site, I will happily share my crazy, “this is why the Steelers will lose to Baltimore despite playing at home after winning an emotional game last week” theory. Whew, I need to think of a better name for that theory. Too long.

The Steelers lost 5 games in a row, eliminating themselves from playoff contention, finding blame for each other along the way, going through some tough stuff as a team, and losing a little bit of that Steeler flash and aggressiveness that had become second nature to their team. And while they seemingly had nothing to play for last week, losing 5 straight games played enough of a role to keep them motivated. But since winning last week, and getting that win less in a row monkey off their back, plus barely eeking that game out, and now playing against a Baltimore team that smells the playoffs, I don’t see that same motivation sticking around.

There it is, I hope it makes enough sense to follow.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 15 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears vs Baltimore Ravens

Week 15 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears vs Baltimore Ravens: Listen, I, as much as anyone, think the Chicago Bears are garbage – but right now you can get them anywhere from 11 to 12 point underdogs, and this team just hasn’t lost many games by a margin that large. What else? The Baltimore Ravens put up 48 points last week and still only average 24.5 points per game. The Bears have also lost everybody money this year, at least everybody backing them, they are just 4-9 ATS on the season, 5-8 overall. That last record will get worse, that first one will get better.

The Bears have lost 3 games by double digits, Arizona, Minnesota, and Cincinnati (in the Bengals biggest offensive performance of the season). All of those teams have been better than the Ravens this season. But all three have a pretty tough run defense, and if that commonality is the key, the Bears could have a tough time, because you know the Ravens can stop the run.

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But what has me on the Bears side is their normally close ball games, and their ability to pick on secondaries that struggle in pass defense. The Bengals aren’t bad, but their secondary can surely be exploited. The Bears have some very fast receivers, and Jay Cutler has one of the best arms in the NFL. Now I know the Ravens will get the better side of a couple Jay Cutler passes, and I know the Bears defense isn’t what it used to be, so we’re just going to call this a whim. I’m taking Chicago to cover here.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens:

Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens Point Spreads Free Pick

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Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens Point Spreads Pick: I know what you’re saying, this Detroit Lions defense is just what the Ravens need to get their offense clicking again. And you may be right, but I find it very hard to take a team giving up two touchdowns when they have a hard time scoring against the poorest of defenses. You remember a few weeks back when some imbecile happened to schedule the Browns and Ravens on Monday Night Football? Well I do, you may have been sleeping through the first half, because before you knew it Chris Berman was spouting off something about “Whoop” and there hadn’t been a single point put on the board yet. That was against the Browns, a team without their best defensive player, Shaun Rodgers, a team that gave up 38 points to Matthew Stafford and the freaking Lions. Please. Giving them two touchdowns to cover sounds like too much to me.

I know the Lions are bad, but while many are reasoning to go with the Ravens because of Matthew Staffords immanent absence from the line-up, I say that’s a better reason to take the Lions. Why, you ask? Well, because Daunte Culpepper gives this team a better chance to win football games. That’s right. Stafford may have a cannon, but the kid is a turnover waiting to happen. He’s had some nice plays this year, and I’m sure he’ll grow into a nice player, but Pep can still win football games – and I think he gives the Ravens all kinds of trouble.

The Lions are bad, no doubt, but it’s just a smart bet to go against a badly struggling offense that needs to outscore their opponent by 2 touchdowns to get a win. That’s just value.

Detroit Lions (+13.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

NFL Free Football Picks Review: Week 13 2009

Well, you can’t win them all. Week “unlucky” 13 was my first losing week in my free NFL football picks in a long time, seriously, look at the records, I’ve been tallying up winning weeks like it was my job, (and it kind of is), but Week 13 broke in and slapped me in the face. A lot of games started out well and looked good going down the stretch, but finishes weren’t good to me and a Monday Night egg laid by the Ravens was the last straw needed to break my winning back. Here’s how the crumbs tumbled….

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New York Jets (-1) @ Buffalo BillsĀ (Winner) The Bills couldn’t do anything offensively as Darrelle Revis absolutely shut down Terrell Owens. The rest of the Bills offense didn’t fare much better as they could only muster 13 measly points. The Jets did just enough to keep themselves in the win-column, winning by 6.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (Winner) The Eagles just flat out dominated the Falcons. From start to finish, the whole idea of Mark Redman being a very good back-up option, and maybe even a better down-field thrower than Matt Ryan was basically put to rest. The Eagles moved the ball easily, and Mike Vick even got in the end-zone twice against his former team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6) (Winner) The Panthers didn’t do much offensively, at least not after the first drive, but the way their defense was picking off Josh Freeman’s passes, they didn’t need to put up a gaggle of points. 16-6 was the final score, as Jonathan Stewart put in work running the ball for Carolina.

St. Louis Rams (+10) @ Chicago Bears (Winner) The Bears could only put up 17 against an improving Rams defense, and Steven Jackson rushed for just enough yardage to keep the Rams close. St. Louis didn’t get into the end-zone, but 3 field goals were good enough to cover.

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) (Loss) The Bengals were up 23-7 in the 4th quarter before they magically blew my cover and got me beat up by a mob of angry gamblers. The Lions got a late touchdown and covered up just like that. Hate.

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss) The Titans were close all day, they just couldn’t get the ball in the end-zone. No late game heroics from Vince today, oh no, it was Peyton stealing the show early, and the Colts defense bending and bending and bending with very little breakage all day long. The Colts are good. I still think I’d take the Titans +7 if they played one more time.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Loss) The Texans didn’t have it in them. Jacksonville’s secondary played much better than I imagined, and believe it or not, I think the Texans desperately missed Steve Slaton. Whether they’d like to admit it or not, since they’ve benched Slaton (though this week it was his health that kept him out), the Texans have really struggled to get wins. Weird.

Denver Broncos (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Winner) This game was an easy one. And I always love an easy one. The Broncos dominate bad teams, they’ve done so often this year, and the Chiefs definitely qualify, even at home in Chief-town.

Oakland Raiders (+11.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Winner) The Raiders just flat out beat the Steelers, and Big Ben was in the game and everything. This really was fantastic, I can’t believe what the Raiders have done to good teams this year. The Steelers are falling hard, and all but out of the playoff race going into the final four weeks of the season.The Raiders, well, they’ve only beaten the Bengals, Steelers, and Eagles this year. Amazing.

New Orleans Saints (-8.5) @ Washington Redskins (Loss) The Saints should have lost this game, but Shaun Suisham wanted to see an undefeated season, so he missed a 2 yard field goal that would have put the Skins up 10. Sure enough, Drew Brees obliged and found Meachem to tie it up. To overtime we went, and a tough fumble call brought the Saints into field goal range – and they got the win. They found a way to win while the Redskins found a way to lose – weird, 12-0 and 3-9…

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins (Loss) Oh New England, yet another game that started so well, had me thinking “of course this was going to happen, you’re so smart, Lucky” – third person business and all – they the Patriots poo the bed and end up losing. I don’t know what’s more amazing, the Patriots losing all these games while being ahead in the 4th quarter, or Baxter eating an entire cheese log…

San Diego Chargers (-12) @ Cleveland Browns (Loss) The Chargers were killing the Browns, slowly but surely getting closer and closer to a cover. Ah, but then the “slow down game” started happening, and all of a sudden, the Browns score sixteen 4th quarter points behind James Harrison’s quick feet (dude should have been playing more a long time ago). The Chargers did nothing, but they did win – which of course, isn’t good enough for me. Up 27-7 going in, me counting my winnings, it’s never a good thing to do – that fat lady does some funny stuff before she sings.

Dallas Cowboys (+1) @ New York Giants (Loss) I don’t know what it was, but the Giants found some highlight reel plays to get late scores. Brandon Jacobs took a pass for 70+ yards and Dominik Hixon returned a punt for a TD. Dallas couldn’t run the ball at all. Those big plays put the Giants ahead for good, and despite a big day from Tony Romo, the Cowboys allowed the Giants to get back in the race, and now see themselves tied with Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East.

San Francisco 49ers (+1) @ Seattle Seahawks (Loss) Oh, I don’t know what to think about San Francisco. Since they finally signed Michael Crabtree, they’ve really struggled. I think they are trying to force the ball in the air too much. They should remember back to when they were 3-1 and running the ball 50% of the time – that might help them moving forward. This team has no identity right now, and despite force feeding the ball to Julius Jones relatively ineffectively, the Seahawks walk away with a win anyway. It was a close one, came down to Olindo Mare’s last second field goal. But the loss hurt.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) (Winner) The Cardinals brought it right to the Vikings. They passed the ball with a lot of success, kept that intense Vikings pass rush off of Kurt Warner, and the defense forced Brett Favre into one of those Favre-like-days that hadn’t shown up over the course of the season thus far. He probably should have had 5 interceptions, but 2 was enough for the Cardinals, they easily handled the Vikings.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers (Loss) I needed a Monday Night cover from the underdog Ravens, and I felt pretty confident. Unfortunately for me, Flacco was way off, he wasn’t throwing his normal lasers, and Ray Rice couldn’t find any running room against the Packers’ rush defense that has really improved from the first few weeks of the season. Green Bay looked very good while Baltimore looked old and injury ridden. This game was tough to watch, but the Packers definitely outplayed the Ravens and I finished a couple games under .500 for the first week in a long time…

Ravens vs Packers Monday Night Football Free Pick

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Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers MNF Free Pick: Despite thinking the Ravens are better than Green Bay in most facets of the game (falling short in only the passing column), I also think Baltimore is a terrible match-up for the Packers. As you have probably figured out, match-ups are a big part of my game, I don’t just take the better team or the team with the better record or the team with the better defense or, well, you get the picture. I like to see how teams match-up: how what the defense does well will effect the offense, how what the offense does well will effect the defense. Well, all that jazz has me leaning on the Ravens on Monday Night Football.

Both teams, on average, score right around a touchdown more than their opponents. The Packers are 7-4, the Ravens are 6-5. This game means more to the Ravens who would put themselves in a very tough spot if they fell to 6-6. They’d basically have to win out just to have a chance at the playoffs. Green Bay is 6-4-1 ATS, Baltimore is 6-5. 55% of the betting public likes Green Bay.

This is what I like about Baltimore. I think Baltimore’s rushing attack will do more damage than Green Bay’s run game, if only because they actually make a commitment to run the ball. When Green Bay gets out-rushed, they are 0-2 in their last 10 games. When Baltimore out-rushes their opponent, they are 4-2 on the season (losses to only Peyton and Tom). The Packers beat up on teams that give them time to throw, the Ravens don’t give anyone time to throw. When hurried, the Packers offense struggles. This should be a close one, but I like the points and I think Baltimore upsets Green Bay on the road.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Green Bay Packers

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview

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Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview: I wouldn’t bet this game. There it is, my advice to you. If Big Ben is healthy enough to play, and he makes it through even most of this game, I think the Steelers pull it out – but an early week injury update of “probable” has moved to “questionable” and the Ravens really bring the heat and hit harder than any defense in the NFL. I am still sticking with the Steelers, as bruised and battered as they are, but I’m going to have to wear this one on the chin like an Iron Mike uppercut if Dennis Dixon takes all the snaps for Pittsburgh this week. You never know, but if Big Ben sits, I like my pick-em Steelers pick a lot less. But I would still be excited to see what one of the better running college quarterbacks I ever watched could do on an NFL stage.

This game is off the books in all but 3 sportsbooks that I pay attention to, and for the same reasons I warn you to stay off this game. But Pittsburgh has beaten the Ravens in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and 3 in a row including a play-off game last season. Pittsburgh has lost 2 straight, and three straight just seems unlikely. The Ravens have lost three straight, and haven’t looked very good offensively since their 30-7 win over Denver 4 weeks ago.

So far, the Ravens have only beaten the mediocre to low-level NFL teams (aside from the Broncos). They have wins over Cleveland (twice), Kansas City, and San Diego (back earlier in the year when SD was struggling). They’ve lost to Cincinnati (twice), Indianapolis, Minnesota, and New England. They’ve played tough in all those games, and special teams has hurt them. But there’s a chance special teams hurts them again, especially against a stout defense that doesn’t allow many touchdowns. I’ll take the Steel city, but I’m worried if Ben doesn’t get the start. Intrigued, but worried.