Tag Archives: Free Sports Gambling Advice

Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

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As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

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This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots: AFC Playoff Prediction

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Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots, AFC Playoff Prediction: Like I said earlier in the week in my Just Picks newsletter, the Patriots rarely lose games against an opponent without an elite passing attack. Now, the Ravens are much better this season than they’ve been in years’ past, and Joe Flacco has definitely grown as a pro-quarterback in his sophomore season, but the Ravens are far from elite in the passing game.

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In the running game, they are as scary, if not more-so than ever before. Ray Rice has transformed into one of the game’s most explosive rushing/receiving threats out of the backfield, and Willis McGahee has shown brilliant flashes of his old self when given the opportunity to run the ball. As an offensive line, the Ravens have dominated the line of scrimmage this season.

The question will be, can the Ravens keep up with the Patriots offense. And that depends which offense shows up. Already, the Patriots will be without their leading receiver this season, as Wes Welker and his 120+ receptions suffered a bad knee injury in the season finale and will likely be out into next season. But Julian Edelman is a good young player in the Welker mode, and it will likely come down to Tom Brady and the great quarterback’s accuracy. Tom has had his ups and downs this season, a year after shredding his own knee on opening day, and it’s been tough to predict which Brady will show up, and how consistent he’ll be from half to half.

But I like the Patriots in this one. They have an underrated defense, and especially in the run-D aspect of it. They are sure tacklers and have a plethora of sound tacklers. If Brady can find the same holes in the Ravens secondary that other elite passers have found, the Patriots should win and cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys: Wild Card Saturday Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys, Wild Card Saturday Pick: This is a tough one for me because either one of these teams can come out and drop a little nugget right down their collective pant legs, if you know what I mean. And while Dallas has proven their worth by smacking Philly twice already this season, on the road and at home, it’s hard for me to take the Cowboys as a 4 point favorite.

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I’m not saying it doesn’t make sense, I’m just saying it’s tough for me to do it. The Cowboys have turned their “late season swoon” right around, winning their last three games, including handing the Saints their first loss of the season. But prior to the Dallas game, it was Philly playing like the best team in football, climbing from mediocre to a win away from a 1st round bye. What a difference a game makes, eh? Philly came out with no pop, got dominated on both sides of the ball, and now they are playing a first round game in Dallas as a 4 point underdog. Their biggest underdog spread of the season.

But that’s part of the reason I’m taking Philly. The spread is inflated because of the substantial beatdown Dallas put on the Eagles last week. The Cowboys are hardly the best team Philly has faced. Philly won 6 straight prior to losing in Dallas, and I don’t think there’s anyway the Eagles play as poorly as they did last week.

Now I’m throwing a little caution to the masses here, the Eagles have just one win all season long against a team with a winning record. And that team, Atlanta, didn’t make the playoffs at 9-7. Interesting, huh? I still like Philly, but be careful.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys

Central Michigan Chippewas VS Troy Tojans: GMAC Bowl Pick

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The lesser known of the final two college football games of the season, but this one might very well be the more exciting game of the two. Both of these teams have shown the ability to fill it up on the scoreboard. And a great deal of that offensive success comes from their two quarterbacks.

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Dan LeFevour, the more know of the two, has college football’s all time passing/rushing/receiving touchdown mark, totaling 147 scores in his 4 years starting at Central Michigan. The dual threat has been one of the best college football players in the game during his 4 seasons under center, and capped off his career with a 71.2% completion percentage, 27 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing scores this season while leading the Chippewas in rushing as well; another great year for the 11-2 Chipps.

But many say Troy’s Levi Brown has the bigger upside of the two, at least as far as the NFL is concerned. He passed for 3,868 yards this season (800+ more than LeFevour) with 22 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. Brown has a very strong arm, and the Trojans averaged just .1 points per game less than the Chipps’ high powered offense. Both these teams can score the football.

As far as the gambling world is concerned, both these teams were book beaters, going 17-7 combined against the spread. The Trojans were 8-4 ATS while the Chippewas were 9-3. Troy averaged 33.1 points and 478.5 yards per game, 16th and 3rd in the Nation. Central Michigan finished 33rd with 416.9 yards per game, and one slot ahead of Troy in scoring with 33.2 points per contest.

Troy is just 1-3 all time in bowl games, beating Rice in the 2006 New Orleans Bowl. The Chipps are just 1-4 in post-season bowl play, also winning in 2006, against Middle Tennessee State in the Motor City Bowl. This is the first time these two teams have played.

And now for the reason why I’m taking Troy. I know I should have learned by now that betting against Superman Dan LeFevour isn’t the best bet around, but I like the Trojans in this one. They have really played good football over the last 8 games, losing only to Arkansas and beating up on just about every team in their path. Central Michigan will be their best win of the season, if they can pull the upset, and I think they will. LeFevour hasn’t performed his best in Bowl games, and it’s possible that might follow him into his final one. The Trojans boast a better passing attack than CMU has seen all season long, and I think that air attack will get the best of their secondary.

Central Michigan Chippewas VS Troy Trojans (+3)

Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks 03/01/2010 Prediction

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Oh how the Hawks have fallen. Sheesh, I think Jim Mora should get an extension based on the damage he’s done. If he could turn these Hawks into the mush pile of confidence lacking maroons that they are playing like right now, well he can surely turn wine back into water, right? I mean, the guy has thrown multiple people under buses, has gotten very little out of a couple of the most talented guys in the league, and hasn’t changed the risk free offense that has been here for years. So, basically they aren’t consistent at all and they still don’t take any big chances – awesome. The best of no worlds.

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But that’s not what’s important here, a little speedster by the name of Chris Johnson is the man of the day, and I have to be honest, I’m more excited to watch this game than any one of the “important playoff implication games”. Call me a fantasy football junky if you want, but I’m here to tell you, my interest in this game has no fantasy implications. Nope, I just like to see history.

Chris Johnson has a chance to rush for 2000 yards on the season, and even more amazingly, pass up Marshall Faulk’s all time single season yards from scrimmage record. That’s pretty cool. See, every year some teams go to the playoffs and some teams don’t. Some teams step up this time of year and some teams just pee down their collective legs – but that stuff always happens. What Chris Johnson is going to do in Seattle, well that will be the first time anybody’s ever done that – and that’s why I’m excited to see it. Do work Chris!

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks

Expert NFL Picks: Washington Redskins vs San Diego Chargers

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These are the guys I don’t think will be playing any longer than one quarter for the Chargers this weekend…. Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick, Marcus McNeil, Shaun Phillips, Shawne Merriman, Stephen Cooper, Luis Castillo, Antonio Cromartie, Eric Weddle, and more… That’s right, I basically just listed about every single starter the Chargers have, and the guys I missed, I only missed out of love. Or I couldn’t think of them. Sorry fellas.

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What do all those names listed together actually add up to? Well, I’m thinking they add up to Jim Zorn’s last win as a head coach of an NFL football team. I hope the guy gets another gig somewhere else, but he doesn’t strike me as the head coach type, and he already got his chance and didn’t make the most of an expensive roster. But what matters here is I’m predicting a Redskins win.

Washington will feed the ball to Quentin Ganther a lot, and I think he’ll have a big day against a Chargers defense that is getting ready for their bye week – you have to rest before a bye week, it’s important don’t you know. The Chargers are definitely the better team, but you just can’t care about that kind of stuff in the final week of the season. An entire team of #2 seeded Chargers are going to be doing more cheer leading than playing on Sunday in San Diego, and the Redskins will get the W.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ San Diego Chargers

Baltimore Ravens vs Oakland Raiders NFL Week 17 Pick

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You know what’s interesting about this entire situation? Just gander back at last year’s yarn pile and you’ll find the reason Tom Cable still has a job. And it could happen again this year. Yes, you may have forgotten, but last year the Raiders won their final two games, against Houston and then a huge upset win over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that needed only to win to see the playoffs. Amazing. This year, the Raiders have yet another chance to do it again.

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After just three wins in the first 13 games, the Raiders try to finish the season 2-1 with two crushing wins over playoff hopefuls. Like last year, all their opponent has to do to see the post-season is win. Can Oakland do the dirty two seasons in a row? Tom Cable can only hope.

But then again, what is he really getting? He gets to wear strings and a big lying nose and grant Al Davis’s wishes. Sounds like my worst freaking nightmare. But the Raiders have played well lately under Cable, and give the guy a break, this team makes absolutely terrible roster decisions, drafts the wrong guy as if that’s the goal, and pays old receivers with bad kness 50 million bones to hardly even see the field.

What’s even more important, the Ravens are a terrible match-up for the Raiders. Defensively, the Ravens are good at stopping the only think Oakland does even reasonably well. Offensively, the Ravens do their best work where the Raiders can’t seem to stop anyone. Bingo was his name o.

Balitmore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Free Pick: It’s painful for me to do this, I mean, the 49ers have been pretty good to me this year and my favorite player ever to lace up his cleats and put a uniform on is Mike Singletary – but I have to go with the road favorites this week, and it has a lot to do with Singletary allowing his offense to become a spread it out, pass first, run never attack that doesn’t allow them to control the game whatsoever. Mike… Why are you doing it to me, my man? You have Frank Gore in the backfield, run the ball!

The Cardinals have been very good on the road, and even more importantly, very good lately. Some people are going to go-on-ahead and call this a trap game, but it’s hard for me to believe that the Cardinals won’t be ready for a NFC West seal-up game against the 2nd best team in their division. Now, 70% of the public bet likes Arizona, and I know this one isn’t as lopsided as a percentage like that would insist, but I still have to take the Cardinals with a chance for a push if they win by just a field goal.

It’s very hard to beat a good team twice in one season (though that seems to be happening more this season), and the 49ers almost seem like a different team since they snuck by the Cardinals on opening day. They have a little more explosion offensively, but they’ve traded in stability for explosiveness, and I don’t think that’s a good trade for them. The Cardinals have played pretty well in each of their last 5 games, and won each of the last 4 Kurt Warner has started in. With a chance to lock up the division, I think they come out and win a hard-nosed battle on Monday Night.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants NFL Sunday Night Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants NFL Sunday Night Pick: This Sunday Night Football game should be a great one. NBC definitely does a better job than ABC and a way better job than the NFL Network when it comes to picking great match-ups. Maybe they have a special deal? Maybe they’re just smarter – whatever it is, the chance for the Giants to pull into a tie with Philadelphia, and the chance the Eagles have to stay atop their division, makes for one hell of a Nationally televised game – especially when it’s the Eagles and the Giants, two of the more popular teams in all of sports.

This match-up has been more than great over the years, in fact, while the Eagles have won three straight, they’ve been the underdog in all three games. Even more amazing, the underdog has covered this match-up in each of the last ten games, and the underdog has won outright in 9 of the last 10. That’s unheard of. The road team has won 7 of the last 10 games. Only three times since 2005 has the game finished with more than a touchdown separating the two, and the Eagles have won 2 in a row by double digits – including a 40-17 win in Philly earlier this season.

Neither team has a ton of injuries, but both will be missing key players. Brian Westbrook, probably the most important guy in this offense over the last five years, is doubtful yet again. Aside from that, most of the recently injured Eagles are probably for Sunday Night’s game. The Giants don’t have a bunch of injuries, but the few they’ve had have been crucial. Kenny Philips and Antonio Pierce are both out for the season, and the Giants are a little dinged on the offensive line as well. This should be a heck of a game, but I like the Eagles in this huge match-up.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ New York Giants:

San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Picks

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San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Picks: A lot of people like the Chargers this week, and while I, in the end, am with them, it’s not that easy for me. I think Dallas will have a lot of pressure for Philip Rivers, and I think the Cowboys are sick of hearing about this December swoon crap, and I think they’ll come ready to play this Sunday. When the Cowboys come ready to play, they are definitely one of the tougher teams in the NFL to beat.

But I also like what the Chargers have done, and just barely enough, just by the smallest of margins, like them to cover on the road in Dallas. I think the Chargers have spread the ball around enough to force Dallas’s secondary to pay more attention to other pass catchers, and that will probably open up some things for Vincent Jackson to make big plays like he was earlier in the year.

I also think the Chargers throw a bit of a monkey wrench in the plans of Dallas by running the ball with some success early. The Chargers haven’t been very good running the ball yet this year, but I see a little something going well for LT and the Bolts rushing attack this week in Dallas.

The Chargers secondary has also turned things around. After a tough start to the season, and questionable play most of last year, the Chargers are making plays and keeping the ball in front of them. If they can make Dallas work for their points, I think they pull the upset in Big D. It’s a very tough call for me, but my lean has to be on San Diego, “Spanish for Whale’s Vagina.” 🙂

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys