Tag Archives: Fantasy Football Predictions

Fantasy Focus: Week 15 Fantasy Football Preview

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This is the 2nd Week of Fantasy Playoffs in some leagues, the first in others, regardless, who to play is a big deal. Last week Josh finished atop the charts for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks, or something like that, and his picks have been on fire lately. I finished second, as some tough defensive picks and a goose egg from quarterbacks had the poo-fan pointed in my direction. Ryan and Papa are both trying to pick up some winners as the last few weeks wrap up, and you better believe I’ll be trying to hold onto the overall title. Doing work. This week I have some solid sleepers ready to wake up and give you a playoff win if you need some help, as I’ve placed an extra five guys in my “super sleeper” realm – guys that are waiver wire fodder right now, ready to spring into starter action for draft pick duds. It’s playoffs, nobody’s feelings will be hurt, just play the best guys out there! Here goes many things….

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Wes Welker – Defenses can focus in on Randy, that’s fine, but Wes had 12 catches against Buffalo earlier this year, he will have a teen count this week.
2. Ray Rice –  I have to stick with Ray Rice, the Bears can’t keep up with the main man in Baltimore.
3. Adrian Peterson – Carolina’s pass D is actually decent, their run D, well, you’ll see.
4. Drew Brees – You know Drew has that fire wanting a win over Dallas, and you know he’s going to make that secondary cry.
5. Chris Johnson – I will not take CJ off this list, he’s a must play, at the top of the world right now.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson – Despite last week’s lockdown on Arizona, the 49ers secondary has some holes, DeSean will find them.
2. Jamal Charles – The kid is lightening quick, and given 20 touches, he’s as good as gold in this match-up.
3. Thomas Jones – I like Thomas a lot again, his match-up is just too good, and he’ll get his carries.
4. Cedric Benson –The Chargers can give up some yards on the ground, and I feel a 120+ yard day coming for Benson.
5. Brandon Jacobs – I like his style, and his punishing runs look to be back. Albert might be out, look for 18-20 carries and yards to match.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –Again, he’s the best back in Seattle, again, he’ll have the most fantasy points amongst them, and Tampa, nice match-up.
2. Quentin Ganther – The Giants D front doesn’t scare me like they used to, the Redskins O scares me more than ever. Deal.
3. Vince Young– I like him again, if he’s still out there, he’s a nice spot start for a 2nd straight week.
4. Laurence Maroney– LM has been consistent, at the very least, for the Patriots – I think he runs a lot again in Week 15.
5. Alex Smith– The thought of the Eagles secondary says no, but don’t get tricked, if you don’t have a top guy, need a starter, Smith is a solid play.
6. Steve Breaston – He might be on the Waivers after a few pooformances, but Larry Fitz might be out, and the match-up is good, I like starting Ta-Tas this week.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Brady Quinn – Everyone is saying no, the Chiefs D beat up the Bills passing attack last week, and Brady threw for under 100 yards – so what, I like the match-up. If you need him, don’t feel like you’re going to die. At least double digit fantasy points from Quinn.
2. Chris Jennings – He might not be on the waiver, but I picked him up in a couple leagues, so he’s out there in most. He plays the Chiefs D and looks like a solid option if you have nothing else.
3. Maurice Morris – He could very well be in for starter carries, and some grabs out of the backfield as well, you could do worse than MoMo.
4. Devin Aromashodu – Let me say this, Jay Cutler has been lobbying for him getting more playing time for weeks, he finally gets it and puts up 21 fantasy points. Like it.
5. Greg Camarillo – Last week’s performance isn’t that crazy, and while I don’t see 100 yards, 5+ catches and 50+ yards seems likely against the Titans.
6. Deon Butler – Call me crazy, and this would be a tough start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it worked out. Burleson is out, and while Branch is #3, Butler is the big play guy left – I think he has a couple this week and has his best fantasy week of the year.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Hines Ward– Great player, struggling team, tough D, tough start in my opinion.
2. Mario Manningham– After a great start, MM is back-up duty, and against one of the best secondaries in the league, not a good start.
3. Matt Forte – Weird, Matt’s here again, I think he’ll do more blocking than running against the Ravens.
4. LeSean McCoy –I like the rookie a lot, I just think the Niners shut him down, and the Eagles find quicker ways to gain yardage.
5. Kyle Orton– I like the Broncos to win, yes, but pass a lot? no. Orton might get close to 200 yards, but I doubt he gets over that mark. More than a touchdown through the air? No – sit him.

***Nate Burleson is out. Turner is still a bit risky. Don’t start JaMarcus Russell unless you are throwing your playoff game, and if you are starting Charlie “Brown” Frye, I’m sorry for your mixed luck, nothing like getting to the playoffs and having to start a peanuts character***

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Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Q&A NFL Week 14

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Alright, I answered lots of fantasy football questions last week, but most of them were big roster questions, or things that I’ve answered recently. So I didn’t have much to share, and I just left last week’s column out. Sorry if you were looking for it. Remember, you can always feel free to write in. Send your questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here to answer and give you prompt advice. I made the fantasy playoffs in 3 of my 5 leagues, and was the highest scoring and best record in the two I missed. I hate that. Not as much as I hate ingrown toe nails, banana pudding, or accidentally trying to crack one of those rock-salt things in packs of sunflower seeds, but I still hate it. OH nuts, I’ll get on with it, here’s this week’s questions and answers…

David writes in asking, “Who should I start Chris Brown,Lynch or Sammy Morris? My other back is Rice. I need you to peek into your crystal ball and help me out.”

Into the playoffs you go!!! I am starting Lynch with my running back question marks. If Quentin Ganther, the new starting RB for the Redskins, is available, you might want to give him a look – he has a good match-up and has looked good with the chances he’s gotten. I just think Lynch ran hard and played solid football last week, and he could get plenty of looks to be useful against a bad Chiefs defense. Chris Brown is the other guy I would consider, but the Hawks aren’t as bad against the run as they seem – but he is a goal line back – so there’s always that TD possibly in the cards, and he should get plenty of carries with Slaton out. Tough call, but I’m going for the best match-up, and I think Lynch draws that.

Papa Bear says, “This is Papa Bear seeking Papa Weimer’s sage advice, below I’ve listed my roster, so anything you can predict, tell me, insist upon, etc, would be a great help. Thanks, as always!”

QB – P Manning and A Smith: RB – Forte, Forsett, T Jones, and Cartwright  Available on waivers: – Lynch, J Jones, F Jones, and McAghee: WR – Marshall, Jennings, Bess, Hester, J Morgan  Waivers: Avant, M Jenkins, Thomas, Massaquoi: TE – V Davis: K- Longwell: DEF- Bengals  Waivers: Chargers, 49 ers, Cardinals, Skins, Bills.

I don’t like Julius Jones all that much anymore, but I think he’s a better option than Cartwright – I guess in a PPR league Cartwright holds a little more value than a non-ppr league. But Seattle plays Houston and Tampa Bay over the next two weeks, not great run defenses by any means, and he might be3 an option for you in a pinch. Cartwright, unless you’re going to start him this week, plays the Giants and Cowboys in week’s 15 and 16, and those d’s pose tough match-ups. JJ would be the best RB to pick up, not because he’s great, but because stupid Jim Mora thinks he’s still the starter… Clown, but he’s got a job.

I think Marshall and Jennings are sure thing starters, and actually like Josh Morgan as your next best guy. Bess and Hester have both been decent, but I think the Dolphins run a lot versus the Jags, and I’m not sure Bess is a safe guy to play. I think Morgan will get his looks, especially in the Niners pass happy offense on Monday Night Football. Yeah, gross, I know, the Niners are passing 3 of every 4 downs, but it is what it is, 6-7 catches and 80 yards wouldn’t stun me.

Thomas Jones is a great start this week, then there are question marks. Matt Forte seems like a tough guy to start considering his bad numbers and that aggressive and physical Packers D – and I really like Justin Forsett, and it looks like he’ll still get some looks, maybe even more next week based on his play last week despite his injury. Cartwright has a decent match-up with the Raiders hosting the Skins, but I don’t know, it’s tough to feel comfortable with Roc in the line-up. Tough call, for sure, I think I’d go with Forsett. I’m tired of waiting for Forte to be good again.

Defensively I’d either go with the Redskins at Raiders – just seems like that defensive secondary could give the Raiders fits, or I’d stick with the Bengals – Cincinnati has been good all year, even against good teams, and I think they’re a better option than the other defenses you listed, besides maybe the Redskins.

Peyton doesn’t have a great match-up, and while Alex Smith has a decent go against the Cardinals, I think I’d have to stick with Manning. It’s tough to sit the guy that got you where you are, right, I did the same thing with Tom Brady a couple years ago and lost because of it, but I would have felt terrible had I sat Tom to play a different guy, and lost because of it. Tough call, but Manning should be your choice in possibly the last week he plays.

Good luck, fantasy playoffs are all about it!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 12 Fantasy Football Advice

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I’ve answered a lot of fantasy questions this week (ask me anything football any time at papaweimer50@hotmail.com), and thanks to everyone who reads my stuff and sends in the questions – but I only have a couple to share this time around, it is one of my favorite holidays you know, a great 4 day feast at my house where I’m never hungry one single second after about 11am on Thursday Morning. Many eating a little drinking and much football gets observed, just enough time without gravy on my fingers to post a couple questions and answers. Here it is –

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Stan the Man writes, “HELP!!!! SOS…. Man, I don’t know what else I can do to breakout of my slump! My team is free-falling and I play the #1 team this week who has already received production from Rogers and Jacobs. I’m down 30 already, who should I pick at WR between (Hester, Massaquoi, and Gibson) and need 2 between (Forte, Thomas Jones, Roc, or Forsett). I have the Bengals, you like their chances? Thanks!”

First of all, if you’re down already, I’d go with Hester at WR, he’s the biggest chance you have at a huge game between the three guys that are left.

As for running back, Thomas Jones is your biggest sure thing, after that it’s a bit of a crap shoot. YOu could go with Forte, but the Bears rushing attack has sucked, and they play an one of the best run-d’s in the league – but last week the Seahawks saw their starting RB get 8 catches for 80 yards – so there’s some Forte upside in the passing game, though Forsett is probably a different type of receiver than Forte….

I think Forsett would be a great start against the Rams, if Jim Mora wasn’t a tool box, and/if Julius Jones wasn’t pronounced healthy and starting – even so, I think Forsett could have a good day, I just don’t know if he’s worth the risk. I’d say no.

I think I would go with Cartwright – he’s a solid runner, he’s always been a good receiver, and he’s the only thing the Redskins have in those short passing situations. Last week, against a good Dallas run-D, Cartwright caught 7 balls (most on the team) for 70 yards (most on the team) and had 63 rushing yards (most on the team) – or something like that – not sure exact numbers, but something similar to those. I think he could be a solid pick against an Eagles team that has been decent against the run. It’s between him and Forte for me, both could catch lots of balls, I think Cartwright has a better chance to get more rushing yardage, and more catches too – but Forte probably has the better chance to score a touchdown. Tough call, I think I’d go with Roc.

Other than that, it looks good. Hopefully you can make up some ground with your RBs and with Vernon Davis, and the Bengals look like a great start this week.

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Dougie Fresca asks, “Would you start Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, Randy Moss or Wes Welker, John Carlson or Greg Olsen – thanks, sorry for the tough choices, my team is pretty solid and I already started some guys that didn’t do that well (Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson).”

Yeah, Dougie, on the bright side it looks like you’re in a good place. I would start Brady over Peyton – the Texans have a solid secondary and I think they make the Colts run it to beat them, plus, I like a Texans upset bid to possibly work it’s magic, and that would mean a better day from Tom – and Tom has been amazing this year (especially lately) – amazingly, he seems to be going under the radar a bit, even though he’s Tom freaking Brady.

I would start Randy Moss over Welker for sure if it was a non PPR, and in a basic coin toss for a PPR league, I think the 51% chance of Moss having the better day wins out, he’s more of a big play touch down guy, and I think that’s enough to make him the guy. Though I would have gone Wes over Greg or Calvin, but that’s obviously an easy call to make now. We’ll see how it works out.

I would go with Greg Olsen over John Carslon. The Vikings give up plenty of points to opposing tight ends, and Lucky thinks the Bears have a chance to get right up there all close like with the Vikings this week – Olsen will play a huge role if that comes true. Good luck for the rest of the week!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 9 Fantasy Football Advice

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It’s been a long week already, and this damn thing is only Thursday -when will Sunday get here? A smart ass might tell me that it will be here right after Thursday and Friday get done with their business, but the nice thing about being old is you can swing and or throw things at people who are being smart asses and you basically get the “he’s old, he can get away with being a rowdy-rabble-rouser” free pass. So that three times fast. It’s a nice card to have, the “I’m old” card, it works for some many instances and really means so many things. Flirting with any good looking girl in any situation, no problem, I’m old. Yeah, it’s not all bad. But it’s true, I mean, I’ve made it this far, give a guy some credit. Plus, my memory isn’t what it once was, I can’t beat people at as many things, and not everything works all the time. But that still does. Keep it up, see if I don’t use my old person card on a left jab freebie. Okay, so you know the deal, already I’ve spent too much time polluting your eyes and minds with oldness extreme. Write in your questions to… papaweimer50@hotmail.com. I’ll answer them as promptly as possible, and if it’s useful to the masses I’ll put them up here in my weekly column. Dream big, penguins!

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David from the Midwest asks, “Should I try to get M Floyd or James Jones as a WR? What about this Moats thing? I have Slaton. Should I try to get Moats? I can’t believe they will bench Slaton especially after they lost Daniels. Is he trying to send a message? What have you been hearing?”

Boy tough deal, I’m also a Slaton owner and it’s hard to say. You’d think they wouldn’t completely give up on their second most explosive playmaker – especially after all he meant to this team going down the stretch last season – and I think he was definitely sending a message, obviously he doesn’t think Slaton is a poor player, but then again, Ryan Moats made the most of his opportunity, and it’s not like Slaton has been a stud running the ball this year. I think you and I are looking at a semi-running back by committee unless Moats’ success was due mainly to playing one of the worst defenses in the league. Obviously Slaton is a talented cat, and I agree, I couldn’t imagine he doesn’t get more than an equal share. But coaches have done crazier poop, and this Kubiak cat is from the Shanahan tree, we all know how easily that guy killed fantasy running backs. That being said, if you have an extra roster spot, Moats might be a safe play for you. I know my team is too good to get him off waivers, lots of people are ahead of me and I think he’ll be gone. As for Floyd or Jones, I actually like Jones as a player a lot more, but Floyd should be the surefire #2 in San Diego, and he has produced when given the chances. I think he’s the better option moving forward, though there’s a better player with a better skill-set that possesses all the things Floyd has (size, hands, etc) starting opposite him, in Vincent Jackson. I don’t think the Packers will use James Jones to his talents, so I’d go with Floyd and hope his increased playing time makes him a startable option.

Mike in Los Angeles types, “I have Ronnie Brown and DeAngelo Williams starting, but in my flex spot, should I start Clinton Portis, Kevin Smith, or Beanie Wells? The second flex spot is occupied by Alex Smith (with Favre on bye) – good idea to bench A. Smith and start two of the three RBs (I think not, with A. Smith vs. league’s worst pass D)?”

Thanks for the email. Thought the Titans secondary played pretty well last week in shutting down what had been a pretty efficient passing attack in Jacksonville, I’m just going to write that off as Jack Del Rio having too much input in the Jaguars offense, and continue to expect Tennessee to have trouble stopping the pass. I think Alex Smith is a good play there, especially considering the fact that quarterbacks are more of a sure thing than any other position. As for your other flex spot, I think Kevin Smith has the best match-up because the Hawks seem to struggle against physical runners, and Smith is physical. The Hawks have struggled a lot, especially with injuries, so beating them up on the ground seems like the best move. But you have to make sure Kevin Smith is playing. He got dinged up a bit last week, so check back later in the week to make sure he’s good to go. If he’s healthy, he’s the play. If not, I think I’d go with Clinton Portis and just hope and hope that the Redskins got it together during the bye week and will come out and feed their best player the ball. I don’t think Bennie Wells is a bad play, he could be solid, I just think he’s risky because with the Cardinals he could rush for 7 yards a carry but only get 5 carries – you know – because they run a circus offense. At the very least you know Washington wants to run the ball, and Atlanta’s rush defense is ranked in the bottom of the league. Hope that helps, good luck this weekend!

Bill Stanley (CUP) from Canada says, “I know I’m in Canada rocking a maple leaf and all, but I still have love for good old NFL Football – nothing quite like it. Anyway, I haven’t gotten into fantasy football yet, but I do rock a couple survivor pools. Now I’ve already gotten rid of Baltimore, Washington (crazy, eh), Green Bay, Indianapolis, Eagles, Steelers, Patriots, and Chargers – what do you think about taking Seattle at home against Detroit? Thanks in advance!”

Oh the maple leaf. You know, I can dig Canada. The universal health care, good people, hockey fools crushing skulls, even that mayonaise thing on random foods doesn’t gross me out too much – but nothing is worse than your world travelers. If there was ever a more annoying group of proud maple leaf Canadian flag representing guys, I haven’t found them. Now, you are good people, no doubt, but goodness, I’ve seen more maple leafs on 10 Canadian traveler’s bags than I’ve seen other flags on the hundreds of back-packs I’ve seen from all other countries. I got it, you guys are proud to be Canadian, you’re not from America, okay – but goodness, they’re running out of maple leaf patches! Okay, rant over, sorry, once again, appreciate hockey, good people, nice movie theaters, pretty hot girls, free health care – I can deal with the flag thing I guess. As for your answer, I think the Hawks are a ballsy pick, but they should win. I would probably go with Atlanta at home against Washington. I know the Falcons can play up and down, but they need this win bad, and they played really well against the Saints on Monday Night. This is a short week’s rest for Atlanta, but Washington is too icky to figure it out coming off a bye. Another option would be Jaguars – but again, that’s just as ballsy as Seattle, and I actually think the Chiefs could wheel an upset here if the stars align right. You can stick with Seattle, a decent choice and probably a team you won’t feel comfortable taking too often as the season moves forward – but I think Hot-Lanta is the safer pick in Week 9.

Fantasy Focus: Week 6 Fantasy Football Analysis

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The old man made it two weeks in a row, but at least it stayed in family again. Despite Red Red and Josh’s fantasy genius, neither has found a top spot in any one week this year. But I’m not settling for 2nd, getting the top spot three straight weeks to start the season felt a lot nicer than two straight 2nd place finishes. I’m out for the glory in Week 6. There are some more gross games that you’d like to stay away from this week (Rams/Redskins for one) and some great ones that fantasy should shine in. Here are the predictions for Week 6’s Fantasy Football action. Let the ghost of Drew Bledsoe in Patriot-ic red, white, and blue and his chubby 7th grader-like athleticism shine through with rapture, lead me back to the promise land you dopey Cougar!!!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – It’s a shot in the dark, maybe, and Williams hasn’t been great this year, but Tampa calls…
2. Randy Moss – Tennessee Titans. Remember the Titans? Remember how they had a great secondary last year. Forget that.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – He struggled last week, but in comes St. Louis to quell all problems.
4. Tom Brady – I’m starting to like anyone against the Titans secondary, but Tom has a special place in my heart.
5. Brandon Marshall – The big talented kid has seemingly figured it out, and that means bad things for San Diego.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Matt Hasselbeck – Arizona really doesn’t let you run it, but they sure allow you to pass it. Matty can do that.
2. T.J. Housmandzadeh – If you like Matt this week, and I do, you have to like T.J.
3. Cedric Benson – This cat is running down hill. He put up a big number on Baltimore, Houston should fall like dominoes.
4. Brett Favre – A lot of people will be confused and sit Brett against Baltimore, should be one of this better throwing games.
5. Wes Welker – I think Welker has 10 or more catches for at least 100 yards this week. That’s 20 points and a great day.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – There was no reason for him to go undrafted in most leagues, he’s a weekly starter, this week should be great.
2. Donnie Avery – The kid is finally getting healthy and he can fly, Jacksonville struggles to stop even kiwi bird air attacks.
3. Rashard Mendenhall – I’ll ride this super sophomore until he lets me down, especially against the league’s worst run D.
4. Kyle Orton – The Chargers let opponents have their way, and Josh McDaniels likes to throw the rock. Good for Orton owners.
5. Eddie Royal – I love me some Eddie Royal this week against San Diego, especially since he saw 15 targets last week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Fred Jackson – It’s going to be tough for me to play Fred much, Lynch gets more carries and more receptions.
2. Vincent Jackson – An impossible guy to sit on most teams, but if you have other solid options, I think he struggles.
3. Julius Jones – Hopefully you listened to Red Red Ryan and traded him when he had value, AZ won’t allow much.
4. Santonio Holmes – Because why would the Steelers pass more than 20 times when they could run to victory easily?
5. Steve Slaton – In a non-ppr league, I think you sit Slaton. If it’s PPR, don’t expect a great day, but could be playable.

PS – Don’t play Dolphins, 49ers, Colts, and Cowboys in Week 6! Byes! Mind the gap!

Week 6 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

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Michael Koenen has a special place in the hearts of everyone at LuckyLester.com – until he’s kicking field goals again, we’re not ranking the position ever… Get a 60 yarder Mikey!

Week 4 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

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There’s nothing worse than eating a handful of sunflower seeds when the last one you happen to crack open has a seed inside it that tastes so bitter your face crinkles up like Jon Gruden reacting to a costly penalty. You know that seed somehow got wedged in the sorter at some production plant in Des Moines, Iowa and waited there patiently until it wiggled itself free just in time to find it’s way into the bag destined for your purchase. A ticking timebomb of rotten filth, it disguised itself among similar-looking peers waiting for that one opportunity to spoil your snacking enjoyment at the last minute. If you know this feeling then you know exactly how I felt this past Sunday watching Byron Leftwich as he coughed up his hold on the Tampa Bay starting QB position mere days after I had touted him as a potential value play for the rest of the season.  Ugh.

On the plus side, Correll Buckhalter and Johnny Knox continued to contribute (100+ yards rushing for C-Buck and a TD grab for Knox) and I have faith that Chansi Stuckey will continue to offer value, though it may be a bit sporadic.  Unfortunately, two of those ships may have already set sail as Buckhalter’s ownership percentage jumped 30 points this week and Knox’s shot up 35 (most likely due to my devoted readers).  As we near the quarter poll of the young NFL season and bye weeks descend upon us, be sure to keep close tabs on your league’s comings and goings and be ready to pounce on PWPs (players with potential) as they get dropped by impatient owners looking for a quick fix.  I give you my week 4 version of Thing 1 and Thing 2 … because the only way to get that taste out of your mouth is with another handful of seeds.

Thing 1: This QB has completed 61.3% of his passes for 871 yards (290 ypg) and 3 TDs to go along with 2 INTs.  He currently is sporting a 79.9 QB rating and is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This QB has completed 67.6% of his passes for 793 yards (264 ypg) and 3 TDs to go along with 2 INTs.  He currently is sporting a 92.5 QB rating and is owned in 32% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Tom Brady and Thing 2 is Jason Campbell.  Obviously I am not claiming Jason Campbell is a better fantasy option than Tommy Terrific but he may get you more bang for your buck in a nice week 4 matchup with the staggering Buccaneers (Brady and the Pats play the Ravens).  For all his shortcomings as an NFL head coach, Jim Zorn is not an idiot.  He knows he needs to take the training wheels off Campbell if he wants to keep his job for the rest of the 2009 season and beyond.  That could translate into a very good QB2 in Campbell at a very affordable rate.

Thing 1: This RB has played in two of his team’s three games this season and in that time has accumulated 150 total yards on 29 touches (5.2 ypt) with no TDs.  He is currently owned in 83% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This RB has played in two of his team’s three games this season and in that time has accumulated 117 total yards on 28 touches (4.2 ypt) with no TDs.  He is currently owned in 2% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Jamal Lewis and Thing 2 is Jerome Harrison.  I may be getting the black lung pop (cough, cough) mining this deep but I think Harrison has some real potential going forward.  The Browns are a mess and the Mangina running the show in is desperate need of playmakers.  Harrison should start in week 4 and likely will find the sledding a bit easier at home against Cincy than he did last week in Baltimore.  If Derek Anderson can get on the same page with deep threat Braylon Edwards early, the running lanes could be there for the 4th year man from WSU.

Thing 1: This RB is the workhorse for his team but despite averaging nearly 20 touches per game over the first three weeks he has yet to score a TD.  He is currently averaging 2.5 ypc and is owned in 96% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This RB is the 3rd down back and speed option for his team.  In the two games he has appeared in he has totaled 107 total yards on 17 touches.  He is currently averaging 4.4 ypc and is owned in 6% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Larry Johnson and Thing 2 is Jamaal Charles.  I am not a huge fan of Charles but there are times watching him when he reminds me of a poor man’s Chris Johnson.  The explosion and burst is there but the vision appears to be lacking at times.  Nevertheless, the speedster out of Texas will force the Chiefs hand if he continues to flash his playmaking ability, especially contrasted against Johnson’s early ineffectiveness.  Better to take a shot too early on Charles than wait a week to long and watch as another owner scoops him up.

Thing 1: One of the most freakish talents in the game today, this WR has totaled 17 receptions for 181 yards and 2 TDs so far this season.  He is currently owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: One of the most overlooked talents in the game today, this WR has totaled 20 receptions for 229 yards and 1 TD so far this season.  He is currently owned in 42% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Larry Fitzgerald and Thing 2 is Nate Burleson.  I don’t usually like to double-dip and I gave Nasty Nate some love in my first Waiver Watch of the year (as a footnote to Justin Gage’s potential).  That said, Burleson’s ownership percentage has not increased in relation to his early production and I wouldn’t be doing my job if I wasn’t urging you to go and get him before it’s too late.  Some may have thought Seneca Wallace at QB would hurt Burleson’s production but he was targeted 12 times last week and is on pace for 107 grabs and 1221 yards.  Go.  Now.

Thing 1: This D/ST unit is a solid group but they are missing a key playmaker in the secondary.  They have played average offensive clubs thus far and have performed decently.  They are owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This D/ST is a young group that swarms to the ball and plays with a competitive fire.  They have been tested early against three strong offensive clubs and have risen to the challenge.  They are owned in 30% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is the Steelers D/ST and Thing 2 is the 49ers D/ST.  The loss of Troy Polamalu has robbed the Steelers of their big play potential and a lack of consistent pass rush has left their secondary exposed.  Conversely, the 49ers are an up-and-coming unit that have gotten healthy production from Manny Lawson and a much improved secondary.  This hard-nosed group takes it’s cues from 3rd year assassin Patrick Willis and will be kept fresh by a running game that chews up the game clock.  Add to that a week 4 matchup with the woeful Rams and there’s a lot to like here.

Dominate Your Draft: Fantasy Football Predictions from Josh

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Better late than never, my fantasy predictions for the 2009 NFL season are here to ease your draft day anxieties.  There is a ton of value to be found in the mid-to-late rounds this year, especially at the running back position.  Wise owners will recognize the opportunity to load up on WR talent in the early rounds if they don’t find themselves in a position to grab one of the top three or four running backs.  Remember, fantasy championships are rarely won in the first few rounds of a draft, but they can definitely be lost.  Be a savvy owner this season and choose based upon value, not name recognition.  With that in mind, here are the true pearls of wisdom to guide you on your path to fantasy greatness … because anything worth doing is worth doing better than your friends.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4th round? … yes please!

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

9.  Speakig of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

2009 NFL Fantasy Football: Lucky Lester Shares his Predictions

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Last year’s predictions had some big winners, a couple tough luck losers, not to mention a handful of “what the hell was I thinking” fortunes that I told all wrong. I won’t get them all right this year either, but I’d like to think my waterfall of fantasy fodder will get you on the right track for your drafts, seasonal trade value, and possibly even a date with that girl that works at Victoria Secret. The brunette. As goes, I’ll spout off some claim, maybe even a sentence explaining why I think this, and will review the whole thing later in the year to see how it all went. All four of the writers doing work on this site will do an article similar to this, and in the end we’ll see who is the sharpest beach ball of them all. Let the games begin!

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 17

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Well, I will randomly post up questions with answers as the year moves forward, but this is my last of my seasonal Ask Me questions and answers. I’m always available via e-mail, for questions and advice, so feel free to send in at your will. I got a ton of questions from David this week in an email, and all were solid, so I just printed his one question and my long answers… Hope this helps!

“I want to thank you for all the advice I used and all the advice that I failed to use and I should have used. It enabled me to win my teacher’s league and finish 2nd in my big money league by .4 of a point. It looks like I will be able to play for a few more seasons. Now I need some advice for the playoffs. 1a-I would like you to list the 2 best teams in each conference and 1b-who you think will be in the Superbowl. 2-If you had a chance to draft a team for the playoffs what top 3 QBs would you go after,which 6RBs,and 6 WRs would you target? 3-Are there any players that you think will play in 3 games? 4-What are the 3 best Def to target? I appreciate all the help that you have given me. Also, 5- I am in a keeper league where I can spend $160. I can keep 3 players. Here is my list. Which 3 would you keep and why?

Andre Johnson $25
Ryan Grant $20
Chris Johnson $13
Eddie Royal $6
Jay Cutler $12

6- Finally, are there any RBs or WRs that could have a break out year that will be flying under the radar for next season? What about QBs that could have great seasons? Are you in any playoff leagues?

I would like to say you’re welcome for the advice, and sorry for the poor advice that I gave that might have stopped you from getting #1 in both leagues, but 1 and 2 is pretty solid. I’m in a couple playoff leagues, one in which you just pick the best starting lineup every week (I’m defending Champ there), and one where you pick 25 guys, any 25 you want, and you make a starting lineup every week depending on who gets eliminated from your roster every week. Now for the answers to your questions (but remember, this might all be a little easier if I knew exactly who was going to the playoffs)…

1a. Top Two Teams in Each Conference:
NFC- NY Giants, Carolina Panthers – both rely on the run game, and have solid defenses – that usually means playoff success.
AFC- Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans – I think I’d rank the Titans higher because they run the ball better, but if Big Ben gets his stuff together, and he usually does come playoff time, the Steelers will be tough to beat.
Sorry there’s no flier crazy pick here, but I truly think these top 4 are the top 4, so I have to go that way.

1b. Super Bowl match-up: Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans: Tough one for me. I think the Giants have a chance to get upset. They have some holes, that’s for sure, and they don’t play their best against the rest of the NFC East. If Dallas or Philadelphia somehow get in, and the Giants play one of them in New York in Round 2 of the playoffs, the Giants might get upset. If Carolina plays all their games at home, I think they have a great shot to see the Super Bowl. But really, the NFC is a tough one. AFC too, it’s either the Titans or the Steelers for me, and both have a great shot.

2. Playoff Rankings
QB- Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo or Eli Manning, Peyton Manning…. UGH (I hate the quarterbacks in this one, i have to be honest, I think Ben might be in the longest, and he has a chance to go all the way, and he’s solid so he gets the nod over Kerry Collins and Jake Delhomme, neither of those guys are that good fantasywise. Tony and Peyton both have a chance to play multiple games, if Dallas gets in, they could easily play 3, and Manning will match up against one of the AFC East teams or the AFC West winner, neither of those teams are great, and he has a good match-up in Week 1, plus they can’t run so he’ll be throwing. Romo (if Dallas gets in) will likely play Arizona or whoever wins the North (Chicago or Minnesota) – all are great throwing match-ups, and Dallas is likely better than any of those teams. But this is tough, I might pick four just to make sure.

RB- Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, (AP or Forte – whoever gets in), Marion Barber (I would almost stay exclusively in the NFC, because whomever wins in the AFC wild card round will have to face Tennessee and or Pittsburgh – don’t sign me up for that RB match-up. Pittsburgh’s RB situation is cloudy to say the least, and Tennessee probably has a good match-up in Week 2 of the playoffs, with Chris Johnson being a good match-up against a wild card winner. But that might leave you hanging if the Titans don’t make the Super Bowl. Tough choices.

WR- Steve Smith, TO (if Dallas gets in), Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss (if), Hines Ward, Wes Welker (if) – if the Patriots don’t get in, or if Dallas doesn’t get in, you need three more – Roddy White, Domenick Hixon, Vincent Jackson – if Vince doesn’t get in, maybe take a shot on Arizona and grab Boldin or Fitz, I just don’t see that team winning in the playoffs, but you never know. I didn’t think much of the Giants last year either – how’d that work out for me?

3. I think Dallas, Indy, Atlanta, New England, – and the 4 top seeds all have a chance to play 3 games…

4. I would target only defenses from the AFC, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and maybe Baltimore (if they get in) – that way you’ll have the best shot at starting a D every week, and all those defenses are tough. The only D I’d grab from the NFC is the Giants, and remember, repeating as Super Bowl Champs is really hard to do. If Baltimore doesn’t get in, and you need one Week 1 playoff defense, the winner of the NFC North or the Cowboys might be a decent bet. If Baltimore gets in, I’d surely take the 3 top Ds that I listed.

But all of this depends on how you’re doing this league. If this is a draft, and you are snaking and picking up players, things might be different. The way I do playoff leagues is that you get 25 players of your choice, and every week you start a lineup of QB, RB, Flex, WR, WR, TE, K, D… I kind of remember you maybe doing a draft. If that’s the case, I think the Falcons have a nice shot at winning Week 1 in the playoffs, and a solid shot at Week 2 as well. Roddy, Turner – two solid options.

5. Keeper League Guys:
I would keep Chris Johnson for sure – he’ll never be $13 ever again, kid is only going to get better.
I would probably keep Andre Johnson too – I think the Texans break out next year, and this guy is probably the best young receiving talent in the league. And I also think $25 is a nice price for a top receiver – who were the expensive receivers this year? What did they cost?

Eddie Royal for $6 seems like a steal, but it seems like auction drafts always find you cheap receivers somewhere, is that true? I haven’t done one before, had a couple started, but never got the league all the way through…

If it’s not a PPR league, I think Ryan Grant is a solid buy. He doesn’t have much hype though, and it’s likely that you can get him for around this price next season – so maybe you’d want to go for Cutler…

What did the top 5 QBs go for this season? He’ll definitely be a Top 5 guy next year. Just think about value, I think Jay, Eddie, Chris, and Andre all have climbing value. Grant is about the same, maybe down a bit – you want to keep your best value. But you also want to look at RB options moving forward, if Grant is going to be one of the best RBs left on the board, he might be a keeper option. Not a PPR is it? If it is a PPR league, I think I’d shy away from Ryan.

6: Some guys that have either seen a huge drop in Value, or aren’t respected as much as they should be, that could be goodies next season…

Kevin Smith (I see a lot of talent there), Pierre Thomas (he’s the best running back in New Orleans), Rashard Mendenhall (I still love his game, and I have a feeling Parker might get the snip), Roddy White (one of the best receivers in the game, doesn’t get enough credit), Marques Colston (not sure, but he might have lost a lot of value), Braylon Edwards (so much talent, so many drops, probably drops way down because of those), Ted Ginn Jr (looks to be doing well, next year is his 3rd), Dwayne Bowe (consistent, very consistent and that KC offense seems to be blossoming a little bit), Vincent Jackson (this might finally be the time he meets those expectations he gets from his talent), Maurice Jones Drew (the #1 back in Jacksonville next season, all season- he’s had a great year, and they will undoubtedly have a healthier offensive line next season), Ronnie Brown (they didn’t give him the ball enough this year, Ricky gets older, this kid has all the talent in the world for a team that’s getting better where it counts, on the line), Ryan Torrain (I watched him in half a game, and I see what Mike Shanny sees in him, hopefully Shanny doesn’t go schitzo and change it up, but he’s a deep sleeper), Ray Rice (stay tuned, but Willis might get the snip, and Ray would be in line for at least a Chris Johnson-LenDale White type share of the Ravens backfield), Roy Williams (this is a big shot in the dark, but Dallas traded too much and gave up too much money to see Roy get 3 passes a game, he probably turns into a 1000 yard guy next year, but I think his value will go back up because of Dallas Hype going into next season).