Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

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This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick: This is my favorite upset of the week, and it has been from the get go. However, looking at it now, it looks as though I’m not the only one picking the Packers to dismantle the Cardinals in Arizona this Sunday. 63% of the public betting on the spread like the Packers to cover, and those are the late numbers. Early percentages were so high that the books responded, moving this spread all the way to even in most sports books as I write this. I see experts taking the Packers at a 2 to 1 clip, and even ESPN’s Suomi likes Green Bay.

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If Anquan Boldin were playing, the Cardinals would have one advantage in this football game, but with him out, the only thing the Cardinals have over the Packers is experience. Arizona made it all the way to the big show last season, playing just one home game, and falling just a few seconds short of taking home the title. But I don’t see that same Cardinals team this season. Arizona has been very inconsistent all season long, and there’s something about the Packers final half of the season that has me admiring their team.

The Packers lost just one game over the final half of the season, as a touchdown pass by Ben Roethlisberger as time expired in Pittsburgh gave the Steelers a 37-36 win. But outside of that, the packers have dominated. During those 8 games, the Packers handled 3 playoff teams, winning by a combined 77-28. Green Bay’s offense has impressed me all year, but it’s their growth in that 3-4 defense that gives them the nod here. Great corners against a less than full strength Cardinals receiving corps, and pass rushers galore -yeah, I like the packers.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots: AFC Playoff Prediction

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots, AFC Playoff Prediction: Like I said earlier in the week in my Just Picks newsletter, the Patriots rarely lose games against an opponent without an elite passing attack. Now, the Ravens are much better this season than they’ve been in years’ past, and Joe Flacco has definitely grown as a pro-quarterback in his sophomore season, but the Ravens are far from elite in the passing game.

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In the running game, they are as scary, if not more-so than ever before. Ray Rice has transformed into one of the game’s most explosive rushing/receiving threats out of the backfield, and Willis McGahee has shown brilliant flashes of his old self when given the opportunity to run the ball. As an offensive line, the Ravens have dominated the line of scrimmage this season.

The question will be, can the Ravens keep up with the Patriots offense. And that depends which offense shows up. Already, the Patriots will be without their leading receiver this season, as Wes Welker and his 120+ receptions suffered a bad knee injury in the season finale and will likely be out into next season. But Julian Edelman is a good young player in the Welker mode, and it will likely come down to Tom Brady and the great quarterback’s accuracy. Tom has had his ups and downs this season, a year after shredding his own knee on opening day, and it’s been tough to predict which Brady will show up, and how consistent he’ll be from half to half.

But I like the Patriots in this one. They have an underrated defense, and especially in the run-D aspect of it. They are sure tacklers and have a plethora of sound tacklers. If Brady can find the same holes in the Ravens secondary that other elite passers have found, the Patriots should win and cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys: Wild Card Saturday Pick

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys, Wild Card Saturday Pick: This is a tough one for me because either one of these teams can come out and drop a little nugget right down their collective pant legs, if you know what I mean. And while Dallas has proven their worth by smacking Philly twice already this season, on the road and at home, it’s hard for me to take the Cowboys as a 4 point favorite.

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I’m not saying it doesn’t make sense, I’m just saying it’s tough for me to do it. The Cowboys have turned their “late season swoon” right around, winning their last three games, including handing the Saints their first loss of the season. But prior to the Dallas game, it was Philly playing like the best team in football, climbing from mediocre to a win away from a 1st round bye. What a difference a game makes, eh? Philly came out with no pop, got dominated on both sides of the ball, and now they are playing a first round game in Dallas as a 4 point underdog. Their biggest underdog spread of the season.

But that’s part of the reason I’m taking Philly. The spread is inflated because of the substantial beatdown Dallas put on the Eagles last week. The Cowboys are hardly the best team Philly has faced. Philly won 6 straight prior to losing in Dallas, and I don’t think there’s anyway the Eagles play as poorly as they did last week.

Now I’m throwing a little caution to the masses here, the Eagles have just one win all season long against a team with a winning record. And that team, Atlanta, didn’t make the playoffs at 9-7. Interesting, huh? I still like Philly, but be careful.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys

Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets Sunday Night Football

The Jets had some awesome luck going against the Colts in Week 16 (undefeated yet didn’t care enough about that to actually play their starters, basically feeding the Jets a must-have win) and now they get another team “resting up” for the playoffs when Cincinnati comes to town with absolutely nothing to gain from a win and nothing to lose from a loss. Lucky. And you know what they say, it’s better to be lucky than good.

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And while I fully expect the Jets to win and all of a sudden take over the spot of “worst playoff team” I think it’s going to be close than double digits. The Bengals still have a solid offensive line and a bunch of young studs defensively. They can’t sit everyone, and you can bet those young guys will make some plays. Ten points is a lot for New York to outscore a good defensive team by, even if the starters play only a handful of snaps.

And the Bengals can run it. They will have Larry Johnson ready to take over for Cedric Benson when CB is ready to get his rest on, and that’s a pretty nice option to have for Bengals backers. This game is no guarantee, but I like it to be close – as Mark Sanchez will have a lot of pressure on his to succeed in this one, the playoffs rest on the rookie’s arm – no big deal, right?

Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) @ New York Jets

Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks 03/01/2010 Prediction

Oh how the Hawks have fallen. Sheesh, I think Jim Mora should get an extension based on the damage he’s done. If he could turn these Hawks into the mush pile of confidence lacking maroons that they are playing like right now, well he can surely turn wine back into water, right? I mean, the guy has thrown multiple people under buses, has gotten very little out of a couple of the most talented guys in the league, and hasn’t changed the risk free offense that has been here for years. So, basically they aren’t consistent at all and they still don’t take any big chances – awesome. The best of no worlds.

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But that’s not what’s important here, a little speedster by the name of Chris Johnson is the man of the day, and I have to be honest, I’m more excited to watch this game than any one of the “important playoff implication games”. Call me a fantasy football junky if you want, but I’m here to tell you, my interest in this game has no fantasy implications. Nope, I just like to see history.

Chris Johnson has a chance to rush for 2000 yards on the season, and even more amazingly, pass up Marshall Faulk’s all time single season yards from scrimmage record. That’s pretty cool. See, every year some teams go to the playoffs and some teams don’t. Some teams step up this time of year and some teams just pee down their collective legs – but that stuff always happens. What Chris Johnson is going to do in Seattle, well that will be the first time anybody’s ever done that – and that’s why I’m excited to see it. Do work Chris!

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks

Expert NFL Picks: Washington Redskins vs San Diego Chargers

These are the guys I don’t think will be playing any longer than one quarter for the Chargers this weekend…. Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick, Marcus McNeil, Shaun Phillips, Shawne Merriman, Stephen Cooper, Luis Castillo, Antonio Cromartie, Eric Weddle, and more… That’s right, I basically just listed about every single starter the Chargers have, and the guys I missed, I only missed out of love. Or I couldn’t think of them. Sorry fellas.

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What do all those names listed together actually add up to? Well, I’m thinking they add up to Jim Zorn’s last win as a head coach of an NFL football team. I hope the guy gets another gig somewhere else, but he doesn’t strike me as the head coach type, and he already got his chance and didn’t make the most of an expensive roster. But what matters here is I’m predicting a Redskins win.

Washington will feed the ball to Quentin Ganther a lot, and I think he’ll have a big day against a Chargers defense that is getting ready for their bye week – you have to rest before a bye week, it’s important don’t you know. The Chargers are definitely the better team, but you just can’t care about that kind of stuff in the final week of the season. An entire team of #2 seeded Chargers are going to be doing more cheer leading than playing on Sunday in San Diego, and the Redskins will get the W.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ San Diego Chargers

Baltimore Ravens vs Oakland Raiders NFL Week 17 Pick

You know what’s interesting about this entire situation? Just gander back at last year’s yarn pile and you’ll find the reason Tom Cable still has a job. And it could happen again this year. Yes, you may have forgotten, but last year the Raiders won their final two games, against Houston and then a huge upset win over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that needed only to win to see the playoffs. Amazing. This year, the Raiders have yet another chance to do it again.

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After just three wins in the first 13 games, the Raiders try to finish the season 2-1 with two crushing wins over playoff hopefuls. Like last year, all their opponent has to do to see the post-season is win. Can Oakland do the dirty two seasons in a row? Tom Cable can only hope.

But then again, what is he really getting? He gets to wear strings and a big lying nose and grant Al Davis’s wishes. Sounds like my worst freaking nightmare. But the Raiders have played well lately under Cable, and give the guy a break, this team makes absolutely terrible roster decisions, drafts the wrong guy as if that’s the goal, and pays old receivers with bad kness 50 million bones to hardly even see the field.

What’s even more important, the Ravens are a terrible match-up for the Raiders. Defensively, the Ravens are good at stopping the only think Oakland does even reasonably well. Offensively, the Ravens do their best work where the Raiders can’t seem to stop anyone. Bingo was his name o.

Balitmore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders

Papas Picks: Week 17 NFL Underdogs Bets

Well I was only 2-3 last week as the Raiders, Jaguars, and Redskins all let me down with stinkers that basically exemplify everything I hate about those three franchises. The Redskins never know what they have, so how the hell can you? The Jaguars can play awesome football against good teams, put themselves in a nice position to succeed, then come out and crap all over themselves like this guy Samson that hangs out down past 31st and Douglas. And the Raiders, well, Al Davis made a deal with the Devil, and when the Devil came to collect, Al Davis promised he wouldn’t kill him if he didn’t kill him… got that? Hate. So this week I’ll leave those three pathetic crumbs off my list of dogs, and we’ll go with some teams with gumption. Believe it!

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Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals: They say that the Packers don’t have anything to play for, and while that may be true, neither will the damn Cardinals. That’s right, they will get a home game in Week 1 of the playoffs, and that’s about it. By the time this game gets going, Minnesota will have already won and Arizona will be once again, playing for nothing. The Packers brass claim their guys will be treating this like a regular week – and that’s enough for me, I’m in. Plus I think Green Bay is flat out better.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2): The Bucs have won two straight, and I’m just as stunned as anyone. This will be 3 straight. Atlanta is a playoff caliber team, suiting up in Week 17 with no chance at the post-season. That right there is enough to count them out.

New Orleans (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have a decent running game, and Drew Brees is out, and I assume other Saints will be resting as well – but they are still playing the Panthers, and betting against the Panthers when they are a touchdown favorite seems like a great bet.

Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Buffalo Bills: Really? +10? I mean, I know the Colts will be sitting lots of guys, but these are the Bills we’re talking about, and it’s not like the Colts have been terrible when using back-ups all season long. You forget, this defense just plugs in players and succeeds. I’m not guaranteeing a win, but the Colts should cover a dime spot.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting game, for the NFC East Championship and a possible first round bye if the Eagles win. Dallas won last time, in Philly, and I think the Eagles return the favor.

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals Pick & Preview

Another game that seems too simple. First and foremost, throw out the idea that you are betting on the best team, absolutely not! You can do that a lot, and you can look for match-ups and trends and how teams play against other teams with similar strengths, weaknesses, etc. – but when the end of the year comes a rocking, you can just go on ahead and throw all that garbage right out the window. At that point, with the garbage splattering on another innocent onlooker, you can see the real simple reason to bet one side or another. For example, in this game, the Cardinals are still playing for a shot at home field advantage while the Packers have absolutely no shot to win anything from this game.

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So, if the Packers have any reason whatsoever, and you can bet that they do, they will come out with Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Driver, Jennings, and every other Packer stud resting firmly on the bench. They’ve done their best work down the stretch, and honestly, they have more to lose (with momentum and injury risk) by actually coming out and trying to win this game in Arizona than they do by sitting down and watching back-ups take one on the chin.

Trying to win and losing (see New Orleans and Minnesota) can do some definite mo-damage while dropping back and staying healthy that final week rarely has an effect, one way or another, on your squad. The Cardinals are still playing for a shot at homefield advantage and a first round bye (believe it or not), so I see them playing starters until they have this game locked up. That’s enough for me.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3):