Ten for Tuesday: Week 7 Fantasy Football Analysis

“JaMarcus Russell, thank you for making an appearance on my fantasy team this week. I thought I was being a good owner, finding the only quarterback on the waiver wire that was starting, and giving Week 7 my best shot despite some tough bye weeks for my squad. But when it comes right down to it, my team had a better chance if I had not picked you up at all. Your stay will be brief, in fact I’ll cut you right now. Be gone!” Red Red Ryan couldn’t find a stop gap, he found a grenade…. 

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 Paul Simon may have diamonds on the soles of his shoes, but Adrian Peterson has William Gay’s pride on the soles of his shoes. If you haven’t seen it, and you like football at all, (or if you just like to see what happens when you mess with the bull) check this out! AP Gives William Gay the Horns! The kid truly is special, if the Vikings weren’t so worried about AP’s physical running style and the way it effects his health, he’d touch the ball 40 times a game. And that wouldn’t be enough…..

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Chad Henne threw a dime to Ted Ginn Jr. that was going to go for about 35 yards, and put the Fins that much closer to a kill shot on the Saints this week. But wait, Ted Ginn Jr. decided to tap the ball up into the air instead of just catching it, then he fell down, the ball just happened to go right into Darren Sharper’s hands, and he did what he does, scoring a touchdown, getting the Saints back in it, and highlighting that one thing that Ted Ginn Jr. just can’t seem to figure out – catch the damn ball. I can see Henne losing some confidence in Ginn, and then, that elite speed and Henne’s big arm will see fewer and fewer long distance get-togethers. Oh Ted, stick-em man, stick-em….   

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I have something to say about Vernon Davis, WOW! That guy is really, really talented. He took a shot near the goal line this Sunday that would put almost every single skill player right on their aces, but not Vernon, he kept his balance and walked into the end zone. Everybody, and probably rightfully so, labeled Mr. Davis a bum, err, a bust after his first couple seasons in the league, but I hope everyone realizes what Mike Singletary’s leadership has done to this kid’s game. He’s always had the ability, and he’s always worked hard, but he’s focused every snap on Sunday’s and he could be something special for a long time…..  

Speaking of amazing plays by a tight end, has anyone seen somebody hold onto a ball after a hit better than Kevin Boss? If you missed it, Boss grabbed a ball with his finger tips then got absolutely obliterated by the Cardinals’ safety. He flipped all the way around and landed in a fashion that should have jarred the ball loose. But he’s tough. As nails. And he held on. Ted Ginn Jr., TO, go ahead and take a note or two on Boss’s catch….. 

Can somebody please tell me how John Fox, or his offensive coordinator, at the very least, still has a job? Down 7-2 at half, the Panthers come out throwing the damn ball. Why? Well, despite running effectively throughout the first half, they wanted to go back to their strength, interceptions. The Panthers are a running team, even Fox will tell you that, but somehow they always end up relying on the pass. Last time I checked, 7-2 to start the 3rd doesn’t eliminate the run from the playbook….. 

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Don’t look now, but the Packers might actually pull their heads out and start handing Ryan Grant the ball 20+ times a game. I know it was Cleveland, a runner’s dream, but 27 carries for the big guy turned into 147 yards, and the Packers’ second blowout of the season (both 20+ carry games for Grant). Even against St. Louis, they didn’t start pulling away until they started feeding Grant the rock in the 2nd half. Grant runs really hard, straight down hill, and he could open a lot of play action for Jennings and Driver if they commit, this game might allow them to realize what that means….  

I wonder if, when the Bears dropped Cedric Benson, they ever thought he’d come back in a couple years, go up against them, and basically beast them all day long. Hmmm. I wonder if they thought Benson would be the best player on the field after they signed Jay Cutler to a big contract 2 year extension earlier in the week. Hmmm. I’m going to go on ahead and guess no on both accounts. Ced went balls out on Sunday, turning Chicago into a sieved. He wanted the ball, and he got it, 37 times. Nasty…..  

Yes, you can go ahead and mark it down, Shonn Greene and Miles Austin are both for real. Now Miles is going to be the sure thing heading forward, he’s going to start, and I don’t care how much money Roy Williams Jr. is getting paid, Austin is going to be the #1 in Dallas, and you all saw what Tony Romo can do when he has a sure thing guy out wide. But Greene, he’s a guy that many people might see as a one-game fixer. Listen, the Jets are going to run the ball early and often from here on out. Thomas Jones is a good back, yes, but he can’t carry the ball 25-30 times a game and stay healthy, not even with those huge freaking arms – so Green will get touches, and he’ll continue to show his worth. He was a beast in college, and he’ll be a beast for the Jets….. 

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Nobody can stop Vincent Jackson! It’s not like the Chiefs were a ferocious foe, but it needs to be said. This guy doesn’t get the kind of credit he deserves, but he’s in that Top 10 group of receivers. He has elite speed, elite size, good jumps, and his hands have turned into sure things. He does it all, truly, and Phillip Rivers will continue to aim his marshmallows in Vincent’s general direction. If you can, get him quick!!!

Dominate Your Draft: Fantasy Football Predictions from Josh

Better late than never, my fantasy predictions for the 2009 NFL season are here to ease your draft day anxieties.  There is a ton of value to be found in the mid-to-late rounds this year, especially at the running back position.  Wise owners will recognize the opportunity to load up on WR talent in the early rounds if they don’t find themselves in a position to grab one of the top three or four running backs.  Remember, fantasy championships are rarely won in the first few rounds of a draft, but they can definitely be lost.  Be a savvy owner this season and choose based upon value, not name recognition.  With that in mind, here are the true pearls of wisdom to guide you on your path to fantasy greatness … because anything worth doing is worth doing better than your friends.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4th round? … yes please!

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

9.  Speakig of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.