Tag Archives: Free Fantasy Football Picks

NFL Fantasy Football Advice: Ask Papa Weimer Week 3

Posted on by

I’m old. I’m tired. I’m grumpy. My ass hurts from sitting in this chair. Where can I get one of those soft little pillow doughnut things to sit on anyway? Note to family: get my ace a nice chair for Christmas or you’re not getting any inheritance. I’ve had questions screaming in this week, people wondering which guy to start, who to trade, who to target in trades. These are the questions and answers I picked out to share.

Dennis in and out of the US asks, “I have a couple guys that I think are overachieving, and I know there are some players out there underachieving. Of these four guys (Percy Harvin, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and Santonio Holmes) which ones would you try to trade, and are there any guys you’d try to grab while their value is down?

Red Red Ryan makes a pretty good point about Cedric Benson, but I think he’s still a solid guy to have on your squad, he and the three other guys you mention should all have solid years, but you’re right in assessing their value right now, it’s probably higher than it should be. I would probably try to move Benson, Harvin, and Williams and keep Holmes, if you can get some good value. I think Holmes might be a treat for fantasy owners that paid the price for his services this season. He’s getting tons of targets on a Steelers team that doesn’t run the ball well, and is going to throw a lot more this season. Plus, he’s a playmaker. But like I said, all four of these guys are solid, I just think Holmes holds onto his value all season long, while a couple of these guys will fall off. In a trade, I would try to acquire Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith (Carolina), Ryan Grant, Knowshon Moreno, and Daren McFadden. All of those guys have pretty low value considering their ability, and all look like they are going to gain some value this week. I think all of them will have pretty solid seasons. Forte and Slaton have begun the season with really tough match-ups. Portis has an easier schedule coming up. Steve Smith’s value is still suffering despite being heavily targeted early in the season. Ryan Grant will get more rushing attempts from here forward. Moreno is dynamic and will only get better as he gets used to the speed of the game. And McFadden is still a superior talent. If you can trade some guys flying high for a couple guys that haven’t impressed owners, I think it’s a good move.

David from Minnesota asks, “Would you trade LT away to get Ray Rice? How about Leon Washington and TJ Houshmanzadeh moving to get LT and Donald Driver or Percy Harvin? Thanks in advance!”

David, thanks for the questions. These must be different leagues as you’re trading away LT in one, and getting him in another. On the first half, Yeah, I think so. I think LT will be fine. But Ray Rice is solid too – tough call, but I’d probably go with LT if I had the choice. On the second question, It just depends what you think about the Hawks and their recent string of injuries to start the season. I personally think they’ll get healthy here very soon, and TJ Housh will be huge, especially in PPR leagues – so I would much rather have him than Driver or Harvin, even though he’s firmly behind them in rankings thus far. Leon looks like he’s getting at least 20 touches per game, which should lead to some big days. ON the other side, as much as I love LT, I’m not sure he’s going to be getting much more than 20 touches the rest of the way. The Jets have a stellar offensive line, better than the Chargers if you ask me. If I had to choose, between LT and Leon, I would go with LT, like I said – but I don’t think I’d give up Housh to do so – his value is still high on my board.

Pretty Patty in Seattle asks, “Weims, having trouble picking my starters this week. Who do you like this week between these guys. (Need to pick 3 to go with my other two starting receivers, colston and manningham) Thanks! (Steven Jackson, Darren Mcfadden, Leshon McCoy, Braylon Edwards, Johnny Knox, Nate Burleson) PPR league…

Pretty, McCoy would be a sure thing if, and only if, you’re sure Westbrook isn’t playing. He should get lots of carries against the Chiefs porous run defense, and if it’s a PPR league I’m sure he’ll get a handful of catches as well. Steven Jackson is one of the three no matter what. The Packers have been terrible against the run, and I’m sure Jackson will be a huge part of the Rams game plan as they try to trick the Packers out of a win. Bulger can only throw 10 yards accurately, which puts Jackson in his range most of the time. Plus, he’s just flat out the best player in this group, and you have to go with your horses. I think another guy would be Braylon Edwards. Surprisingly, the Ravens have been pretty terrible against the pass, as Brodie Croyle of all clowns, had a good outing against them in Week 1, and Rivers torched them to the tune of one billion yards in Week 2. The problem with the Ravens is they are so good against the run, and they’ll likely be up early, so the Browns will probably have to throw a lot. I usually don’t like Cleveland offensive players, but 7 catches and 100 yards from Edwards wouldn’t surprise me. If Westy is going to play, and from what I read, it looks like he will, I think I’d go with McFadden. Now this one is a little tricky because Denver has been great against the run this season, but then again, you have to look at who they’ve played. Cincinnati and Cleveland aren’t two rushing attacks that strike fear into my heart. So I’m not sure they’re as good as they are lucky to have been scheduled to pissy running attacks to start the season. The Raiders can really run, and McFadden should get the ball more this week. JaMarcus Russell has been a joke (he’s barely batting .350 through the air, gross) so Denver could stack up against the run – but I still think they don’t have elite front 7 power, and McFadden should have his best yardage output of the season. If you don’t want to go with McFadden, take a chance on Nate or Knox. Nate’s been getting targeted lots of times, and obviously a dynamic touchdown threat, he could get to the house against a Bears secondary that doesn’t really have the speed to cover elite WRs. Nate might not be elite, but his speed and touchdown play potential is definitely amongst the games best. Knox is looking like one of Cutler’s favorite targets, and the Hawks secondary isn’t an exciting shut down group at the moment. I just think the Bears will run a lot more this week against a D-front that doesn’t look powerful after Frank Gore had his way with them. So I’d side with Nate, but just barely. Hope that helps, Patty. Good luck!

Trick or Treat?

Posted on by

Welcome to Red Red Ryan’s weekly “Trick or Treat” section, where I, Red Red Ryan, break down some of the performances from the previous week and tell you whether or not you are being tricked or if you can expect the same treat the rest of the way.

Joe Flacco: 24 year-old Joe Flacco had the best game in his young career last Sunday. He set career highs in attempts (43), yards (307), and touchdowns (3). The most important stat that leads me to believe you can expect top 15 fantasy QB numbers this year are those attempts. Joe attempted an average of 26 passes a game last year. Baltimore has said they are opening up the playbook and the entire field to Flacco, and that already shows in Week 1. This means more passes to the middle of the field to Todd Heap, opening up more big plays to the sideline. Heap already matched his high catch game from 2008, and had more receiving yards in Sunday’s game than any time last year. Baltimore has been more of a traditional running team in the past, but I think those days will stay there. Expect great numbers from the young QB the rest of the year.
Judgement: TREAT!

Julius Jones: First I will start off by saying it is always a treat to lineup against the Rams if you are an RB. The rams were 4th worst in the NFL last year in rush defense giving up 154 yards a game. Last year in week 3 at home at Quest Field Julius Jones ran for 140 yards and a TD, very close to his Week 1 total (117 and a TD). The 140 yard performance was Jones’s best game of the year in 2008 and I hate to say it, but his latest game against the softest defense in football might be his best of the 2009 season as well, at least until he plays against the Rams again in Week 12. I do expect Jones to have a better season this year than last. A new run scheme should help Jones and the Hawks offensive line stretch the field. But I believe he is still at best a #3 RB. Keep playing him in good match-ups, just like you should with most of your non-elite players.
Judgement: TRICK!

Tim Hightower: This was more of a difficult call for me. It is much tougher making a prediction for me on a young player, especially a young player with new offensive coordinators. Tim didn’t have a great day rushing the football, only 8 rushing attempts for 15 yards. However, he caught 12 balls for 121 yards. Before Sunday’s game against the 49ers Tim’s career high in receptions in a game were 6 and his previous high for receiving yards: 34. The Cardinals trailed for majority of the game and the 49ers played great defense forcing Kurt Warner to check the ball down to Hightower. I don’t see too many defenses shutting down Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and I don’t see the Cardinals playing too much catch up this season. This means you have to rely on Tim running the football. Something he hasn’t been able to do on a consistent basis yet in his career averaging just 2.8 yards per carry, and oh yeah, they drafted a beast of a running back named Bennie Wells who averaged 4.1 yards per carry in his first NFL game. I don’t see Tim getting majority of the hand offs for too long. I see his role turning more into a Chestor Taylor type role, catching passes out of the backfield on third down and getting every 5th series to rest the teams real horse.
Judgement: TRICK!

Carson Palmer: This may surprise you. Carson Palmer is better than 247 yards 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s. It’s tough to only be able to throw the ball to one side of the field. That’s what happens when you play against Champ Bailey. Not only was Carson playing against one of the toughest cover corners in the game he was playing without his favorite target now playing in Seattle. Expect Carson to target big bodied Chris Henry more this week, to take over for TJ as a possession receiver. One big thing I take from Week 1’s game against the Broncos that shows me Carson is just a couple of games away from returning to his fantasy stud form are is his completion percentage. Carson’s 63.6 CMP% match his career mark of 63.7 CMP%. This tells me that Carson is just as efficient now against a difficult pass defense as has been throughout his career. Now what I see is that he is going to have to throw the ball a lot for Cincy to have a shot at winning games, those two things together make last week’s poor fantasy output a trick, he’ll be just fine.
Judgement: TRICK!

Santonio Holmes: Santonio is quickly becoming Big Ben’s favorite target. He may not need to be Ben’s #1 WR this year to still score lots of fantasy points, and make those that have believed in Holmes since coming out of “The Ohio State University” 4 years ago, look like a genius. I, being one of the aforementioned. The fact is Pittsburgh is having a difficult time rushing the football and have now lost one of the best defensive football players in the NFL.

More points given up + A bad rush offense = More passing plays
I hope you all could follow my math. This means good things for the sticky fingered Holmes. He has already proven he can be a big play guy, leading the NFL in yards per reception already once in his career. But in the last two games the Steelers have played, Holmes has been the most targeted receiver in both cases. Expect a career year and a top 12 WR at seasons end.
Judgement: TREAT!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 2

Posted on by

I’m back with my big belly, my bigger brain, and my even bigger… umm…. feet. My feet are huge for being a relatively short guy, size 12.5, that’s pretty big. What I hate more than anything is trying to jam into a 12 or flopping around like a clown in a 13. Plus, only a few shoes have 12.5 – regardless, I’ve found another thing to be angry about, and I’m going to talk about it now. Deciding to go receiver happy in one of my drafts has gotten me no where, and it’s not because my running backs have disappointed. I snagged Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez and look where that’s gotten me – no wins, one loss, damn! Lucky tries to tell me to hold tight, relax, you’ll be fine, but I can’t help but hate the fact that I got expensive receivers when I would have been happy as can be with guys like Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, Wes Welker, and Devin Hester… Okay, damn, I’m sick of complaining – damn receivers! lets answer some questions…

Cozmo in San Antonio asks, “Should I sell Adrian Peterson now or wait until Detroit? I have some holes at receiver and I’m pretty sure I could get Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Eddie Royal for AP all by himself. What should I do? Can I really live with myself trading AP?”

Honestly, I would probably make that trade, but I’m a value whore, and certainly think all three of those guys will have solid seasons. All three have very low value after week 1 (because of their low output to start the year), and right now nobody’s value is higher than APs. However, it probably depends on the rest of your roster. There’s no point to upgrade a little and end up dropping solid guys in the process. If you have decent receivers, you might want to stand pat with AP, he looks like a 2000 yard back, and there’s no doubt that kind of production will keep you in games. But if you do have a hole, like you say, AJ and CJ and a guy like Royal looks pretty good. As always, see if you can get more somewhere else. I’m not sure you could get too much more than that, but shoot, it doesn’t hurt to try. AP might have even more value after running into Detroit this next week, but then again, I’m not sure he could have more value than 180 yards and 3 scores…

Dennis in Alaska says, “Last week you told me I should start Eddie Royal over Hines Ward, what gives?”

That being said, I also told you to start Julius Jones over Chris Johnson, which would have made up for that Royal over Ward advice. I still think Royal will have a huge year, and would probably start him over Ward again, despite their Week 1 totals. You can’t get angry at the single piece of poor advice that I give you when I feed you good stuff until you’re belly limits the vision when you pee. You have to understand, this is sport, these guys can surprise even the best fantasy minds – but I’m guessing you didn’t start Julius over Chris, or you probably wouldn’t have written in with frustration.

Dennis in Alaska replies, “Touche. I listened to the bad advice and left the good advice on my bench. It would have been about even had I listened to both. Well played. Thanks for the free advice. On that note, do you start Chris, Julius, Thomas Jones, or Tim Hightower this week? I need two.

No problem, my  man, just doing work. I would start Chris against Houston, he should blow them up. I would leave Julius on the bench this week, the Niners are tough against the run, and he won’t catch too many balls out of the backfield. I would probably go with Thomas against the Patriots. I don’t think the Pats will be great against the run with Seymour in Oakland, and Mayo on the bench. TJ should get plenty of carries this weekend. Tim put up good numbers, but I bet he never catches that many passes again, plus Beanie looked like the better runner, and I imagine he’ll take carries away from Tim a little this week against a mediocre Jags defensive front. I still think Hightower is a solid play, I just like Jones more. Good luck, hopefully I get them both right this week!

Do I trade Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Ward for Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Ward is my #4 running back behind Maurice Jones Drew, Kevin Smith, and Clinton Portis and ahead of Jamal Lewis. Boldin would be my highest ranked receiver in front of Houshmandzadeh, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez. Deal or no deal?

Deal. I think Boldin will be a beast starting in probably Week 3, he might be a so-so play while healing from his hammy injury – however, it could also linger. I think it’s a good low risk play by you because when healthy Boldin is a Top 10 guy easily, and it’s not like Warner is a much lower play than Rodgers. You get some big upside while losing a time share running back and for this season probably lose nothing at quarterback. Kurt played poorly in Week 1, but I doubt that continues as long as he stays on the field. It’s not like Aaron Rogers has been the beacon of health in his career either. Take a chance, good upside for you there.

I’m out of here to write some receiver hate mail to all those fantasy guys that advised me to go WR late in the first round…. blast them!!!

Free Fantasy Football Picks: Papas Predictions

Posted on by

My Nephew has me back giving some fantasy advice, he was nice enough to pay me nothing to work for another year, what a guy. But hey, I have fun doing it right? Shit, I only have to wear two pairs of glasses to see the damn screen, make 100 errors while hunting and pecking my way into oblivion, all the while trying not to listen to this voice in my head that keeps telling me to pick Barry Sanders in my upcoming draft – (I still do that with my last pick, what can I say, I’m hopeful for a comeback). So these are my predictions, I hope that’s not too quick of a transition for you, if it is just deal with it I guess. I’m old, but I’ve probably been playing fantasy football since you were an idea that your parents couldn’t even fathom – you know, when they still wore condoms and took birth control. So, I’ve been around for a while, won lots of fantasy championships, and learned from my mistakes as well. What has that taught me? That these predictions are more likely to be true than my nephews. That’s what. Why? Because I’ve only been wrong once, and that was when I thought I was wrong and was actually right. Here goes…

1. Matt Hasselbeck will be a Top 7 quarterback in 2009.

2. Either Chester Taylor or Jerious Norwood will be a Top 20 fantasy back this season. Choose wisely.

3. Matt Schaub will not play more than 12 games, but that’s okay, he’ll still throw 20 touchdowns.

4. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will be a Top 5 fantasy defense.

5. Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback.

6. Donovan McNabb will be Top 5.

7. Who will round out my QB top 7? Drew Brees and Philip Rivers and Tony Romo will be in there too. That leaves one spot left over, gotta have a flier in there somewhere – but I’m not going to predict that, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

8. The highest paid QB in the NFL finishes out of the Top 20 in fantasy QB rankings.

9. Even though I’ve had poops bigger than Darren Sproles and Leon Washington, both will finish amongst the Top 30 running backs in PPR leagues.

10. Thomas Jones won’t, Jamal Lewis won’t, Jonathan Stewart won’t either.

11. Knowshon Moreno will have at least five 100-yard games this season.

12. That will be more than Marion Barber.

13. This year’s DeAngelo Williams (surprise, out of nowhere back that is seemingly left for dead because of a high draft pick or “new” back taking his place? That would be Joseph Addai. He won’t be the #1 fantasy back like Williams was last year, but he’s getting drafted around 20 in most of my leagues, he’ll be a Top 10 guy.

14. Marshawn Lynch will be a Top 10 guy from Week 4 until Week 16 – do those week’s matter to anybody?

15. Not much of a stunner, but Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing yards, by a lot.

16. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson. Why? Ready… He’s going to have more fantasy points. But I like both guys.

17. Kevin Smith will be a top 10 fantasy running back.

18. Randy Moss will score more fantasy points that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will catch more passes than anybody in the NFL.

20. Chad Johnson will show everybody that last year was a fluke, and that he’s still very inconsistent, but will be a Top 10 WR in the fantasy world.

21. If Terrell Owens is healthy for all 16 games, he will be a Top 5 fantasy receiver. I will guarantee he’s a top 10 guy regardless.

22. Anthony Gonzalez will have more fantasy points than Roy Williams.

23. Lance Moore will have at least 70 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. That might not be last years’ totals, but that’s still pretty damn good considering where you draft the guy.

24. John Carlson will be a Top 6 Tight End.

25. Joseph Addai > Darren McFadden > Pierre Thomas… That would be opposite of their draft rankings.

26. Felix Jones scores more fantasy points than Ray Rice.

27. Donnie Avery scores more fantasy points than Donald Driver.

28. The highest scoring rookie receiver this season? Hakeem Nicks.

29. Brandon Jacobs will score more fantasy points, in non PPR leagues, than any other RB in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson. He’s number one, or maybe number two….

30. In the games that Reggie Bush plays in (I’m guessing 12-14) he’ll be a Top 10 PPR RB. So he has GREAT draft value right now. *Currently ranked 31 by Espin the Magazine.

Done and Done. It only took my a million hunts and pecks to find the right keys to right this damn thing, and if you count my hourly wage, I’m going to have to win the lottery to get out of the red… blast. But at least I’ll get to rub it in when these are all right.

2009 NFL Fantasy Football: Lucky Lester Shares his Predictions

Posted on by

Last year’s predictions had some big winners, a couple tough luck losers, not to mention a handful of “what the hell was I thinking” fortunes that I told all wrong. I won’t get them all right this year either, but I’d like to think my waterfall of fantasy fodder will get you on the right track for your drafts, seasonal trade value, and possibly even a date with that girl that works at Victoria Secret. The brunette. As goes, I’ll spout off some claim, maybe even a sentence explaining why I think this, and will review the whole thing later in the year to see how it all went. All four of the writers doing work on this site will do an article similar to this, and in the end we’ll see who is the sharpest beach ball of them all. Let the games begin!

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 11

Posted on by

Believe it or not, I’m back – back to share the questions that be asked upon me. Don’t forget, you can send your questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I answer them relatively promptly for an old sour man, and every once in a while you get a little humor that should brighten your otherwise gloomy day. Bingo!

Red Red Ryan writes, “Thank you for all your wisdom – I did all the fantasy bowing you suggested, even making a little shrine of Splinter Shannahan – this all turned around last week when I went into overtime once again, and needed less than 20 points from Steve Breaston to win the game. I thought I was in trouble when Breaston basically had that covered going into the half, but it was the Anquan Boldin show after the break and I ended up winning by a point. Is there anyone else I should pay homage to this week?”

Anytime I can help, I’m happy to do so – unless of course you are in a league with me, in that case you should worship the wrong fantasy figures like Brian Billick, Andy Reid, John Fox, and Freddie Mitchell. Red, you have been a valued reader, and hilarious question asker over the years, and I just wanted to offer you a blog/post spot on team LuckyLester.com. I talked to the young buck and he likes your style, besides the redness, but thinks you’d be a nice addition. Let me know if you’d be interested, and you’ll have free reign to write whatever you want (that’s not abusive and terrible). As for things you should do this week, I’d reccomend putting on some old football pads, grabbing a baseball bat, and do your best rendition of the famous Bo Jackson poster. Take that, put it on your wall in a frame, and watch your fantasy stats soar into the playoffs. Nothing better than the Red meets Bo poster. Good luck!

Johnny 6 asks, “Would you start DeAngelo Williams over Adrian Peterson this week? The Panthers play the Lions and AP goes up against a tough Tampa D – your call big guy.”

Johnny one better than Five, that’s a tough one, but yes I would start DeAngelo. He’s been great lately, and the team is really feeding him the rock. AP does have a very tough match-up against the Bucs, a team that has allowed one single rushing touchdown all year long. I expect that game to be heave Bucs early, but it’s hard as hell not to start that beast in Minnesota. Yes, I’d start DeAngelo, and I’m hoping for you that I’m right about that one.

Alice in Dublin writes, “I’m a chick, I’m hot, I’m in 25, and I’m living in Dublin while playing fantasy football – how many of those have you gotten questions from? Here’s the deal, I’m playing my stupid boyfriend this week and I just want to make sure I beat his ass. I have to start 2 running backs between Steve Slaton, Marion Barber, and Joseph Addai – and I have to start 3 receivers from Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Jericho Cotchery, and Brandon Marshall – which 5 do you start? Thanks in advance, I’ll love you forever if you give me good advice.”

I think I’m in love. Alice, the answer to your first question is none. For your football related stuff, I’d go with Marion Barber for sure, and a slight lean toward Steve Slaton over Addai. Seems crazy, with Addai healthy and all, but the place to attack the Texans is through the air, and with that being said I’m almost willing to believe that Dominic Rhodes does just as well as Addai. I know Slaton was bad last week, and Bob Sanders the running game missile is back for the Colts, but I like Slaton to have a solid game this week, just a little better than Addai’s. At receiver I’d leave Calvin Johnson on the bench, as crazy as that sounds, and I’d start Brandon Marshall, Jericho Cotchery, and Andre Johnson. It’s a tough call between Calvin and Andre, both have very tough match-ups, but despite the top pass defense in Indy, Sage takes plenty of chances and Andre is an absolute beast. I couldn’t sit him down. I love your style, feel free to write in any time.

theRUNDOWN: Week 10

Posted on by

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Last week was one of my worst RUNDOWN’s of all time, so I’m definitely feeling anxious at the chance to do something great this time around. This is my RUNDOWN for Week 10…

QB: Aaron Rodgers vs. Minnesota: Aaron has been the real deal since taking over for Brett, and people are starting to realize what the Packers were up to when the traded the golden arm in the NFL. Rodgers should have his way with the Vikings secondary, and he doesn’t have a long history of playing poorly in Minnesota (like old man Favre). 

RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Green Bay: The Packers don’t have a good run defense and you know Aaron Rodgers and company will be putting up points. Adrian Peterson should be a work horse on Sunday, and I’m hoping for one of those “that guy is amazing” weeks from AP. 

RB: Jamal Lewis vs. Denver: With Brady Quinn under center, the Browns will be feeding Jamal Lewis to take some pressure off their beacon of hope – that being said, this is the Denver Broncos and Jamal is looking to break 150 yards in the first half. 

FLEX: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. KC: Alright, there’s just something about an LT/AP lineup that gets me all hoogily boogily – I’ll take LT2 against the KC Chiefs. 

WR: Anquan Boldin vs. San Francisco: Anquan Boldin is a beast, a touchdown beast. I like him to carve up the 49ers secondary this week. 

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Minnesota: I like Greg’s match-up against the Vikings. Jennings is the read deal and he should torment Minnesota with his ability to run after the catch. 

TE: Kellen Winslow vs. Denver: The Broncos secondary is brutal and Kellen will be a mismatch that a young Brady Quinn will take advantage of. There it is. 

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Buffalo: Yeah, I’m back to Gostkowski. I think the Pats move the ball enough to get their young kicker into a nice field goal groove, so I’ll roll with the only kicker to ever get me good points.  

D: Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland: The Raiders are brutal and you can bet they’ll be throwing more this week after the team tallied up less than 100 yards of offense against the Atlanta juggernaut last week. More passing means more mistakes and the Panthers reap the benefits. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: It’s no secret, I’m on the Thigpen bandwagon… 

Daunte Culpepper: Make sure he’s starting, but why not, right? The guy hasn’t been in the league for about a year, and I still like him against the Jags defense. If anyone knows how to throw it up for talented wide receivers, it’s the guy that made a pro bowl career out of doing so in Minnesota. 

Maurice Jones Drew: The Lions are in town again, if i had the guy I would be starting him.  

Timothy Hightower: San Francisco doesn’t really scare me all that much, and Timmy is getting the carries on the goalline and in the middle of the field. He should have a solid day this week. 

Mushin Muhammad: This guy should be a PPR genius this week, catching at least 8 balls against the Raiders defense that should be intrigued as to who is getting cut tomorrow… What a joke Oakland is. 

Mark Bradley: He’s been good since cracking the starting lineup in KC, and now he has a pretty solid match-up against the Chargers secondary. I like this kid a lot. 

Billy Miller: This guy is still available in a lot of leagues, and while Jeremy Shockey is back, Miller’s useful weeks in a row make him a nice sleeper candidate here. 

New York Jets: The Rams offense makes me sick, and I think Marc Bulger is part of the problem. His offensive line is brutal, sure, but he plays scared and throws the ball way off target even when he’s not getting rushed. 

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Big Ben Roethlisberger: Too many question marks, and if the Steelers are up, they are likely to go with Byron just to protect Big Ben. 

Bernard Berrian: BB keeps having tough games against the physical Packer corners – based on that I wouldn’t play him. Unless your me and your only other option is Marvin Harrison. Ugh. 

Steve Slaton: I really like Steve, but he’s braving the Ravens this week and they never give up anything to running backs – he should still be a threat in a PPR league, and I might play him if I didn’t have great options, but Sage likes to throw the ball down field, and that doesn’t help Slaton’s cause.  

Marvin Harrison: I like him less than BB this week- I know that because I have that option and I’m starting Berrian. That beings said, Berrian is also on my sit him list, so that makes Marvin a super sit him. 

theRUNDOWN: Week 8

Posted on by

For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Just in case you didn’t catch it, this is my RUNDOWN for Week 8…

QB: Donovan McNabb vs. Atlanta: I think the Eagles will have some trouble with the Falcons, but I like McNabb to throw for many yards and a couple scores.

RB: Clinton Portis vs. Detroit: Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke. Clinton’s dominating the league and he gets to pick on the Lions this weekend. I don’t think he’ll get quite as many looks, but two touchdowns in this one is what I’m looking for.

RB: Thomas Jones vs. Kansas City: Jones isn’t the best back in the league, but I have to like him against the Chieftons. The Jets always try to establish the run and it won’t take much trying against KC.

FLEX: Steve Slaton vs. Cincinnati: I love Slaton’s game, but he needs to continue to be involved in the passing game, the kid is filthy in space.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Carolina: People say the Panthers are a tough match-up, well I like the Cardinals to be throwing a lot on Sunday. I like Fitz to catch a few of those and put up some points in Carolina.

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Cincinnati: Johnson is a beast. One of the dirtiest most sure thing receivers in the game. Plus, despite the rankings, I like this match-up.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. New Orleans: Bad defense, great player, good quarterback – touchdowns. We’ll see, but the odds look to be in my favor.

K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. St. Louis: I think the Rams have gotten a little better defensively, and I think that’s good for Gostkowski. A couple more 3rd down stops means a couple more field goals.

D: Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland: All the Raiders can do consistently is run. The Ravens dominate opposing rushing attacks. Duh on this one.

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrad: DG plays at home against Cleveland. The numbers don’t look great, Cleveland is solid against the pass and Garrard has been less than mediocre so far this season – still, I like his chances this week. Call it a hunch. Ha.

Jason Campbell: Great match-up this week for Campbell. If handing it to Clinton wasn’t so easy, he’d get even more fantasy points. Still, he’s been good enough for a start here.

LenDale White: I don’t think Bob Sanders is playing in which case the Titans will be getting plenty of rushing opportunities. Chris Johnson is the better back, no doubt in my mind, but LenDale is still a nice start this week against the Colts.

Jamal Lewis: Yep, I like this horse. Jamal runs hard, and his numbers don’t show how well he’s been carrying the rock this year. I like him against the Jags.

Vincent Jackson: “Play him while he’s hot.” I had him here last week, and even though the game is in England, which means lots of traveling and probably less scoring, I don’t think Chambers is playing which makes Jackson the #1. That’s a good thing against the Aint’s secondary.

Josh Morgan: I’m not sure who’s playing QB for San Francisco, I’m not sure who’s the #1 receiver for the 49ers, but I do know that Mike Martz loves Morgan, and that should be enough for a bye week sleeper fill in this week.

Billy Miller: If you need a TE then you can take a shot with Billy. He gets looks. Drew seems to like him, and there’s a chance Shockey either doesn’t play or is limited. Sounds like a play to me, and to throw a nice hanging slider in there – the Chargers secondary leaves something to be desired.

New York Jets: You bet, Chiefs are on the road, defense is in my sleeper slot – it’s that easy.

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Matt Cassel: I know he had a nice game last week, but the Rams are bringing many pressures since Little came back – I think Matt gets sacked a lot and becomes turnover prone.

Mewelde Moore: I know Moore was the hot pick up this week, and last, but I don’t see why. He won’t do much this week, I’m almost sure of that, and Parker will be back soon.

Dominic Rhodes: He did well last week, looking good filling in for Joseph Addai. This week he gets to play the Titans… Haha, “gets”, lucky guy. Don’t start him this week unless you are really desperate.

Roddy White: I think Atlanta does some good things through the air, but not via Roddy. He’ll have trouble matching up with some tough corners in Philly.

Three for Thursday

Posted on by

I thought I’d give you guys three match-ups that look bad or good, but should actually produce well (or poorly) this week. Basically, you think something but WATCH-OUT!!! It might be different than you’d expect. 

1. Michael Turner hasn’t had good days against good rushing defenses, and a while back the Eagles were rated as the top run stuffing group in the business. And they’re still highly rated, but something I’ve recognized has given me new hope for starting Mike this week in Philly. The Eagles started off hot against the run, sure, but they gave up 145 yards to Clinton Portis, and 101 yards to Frank Gore. The Falcons commit to the run and Turner might be okay pounding the ball at Philly’s relatively undersized defense. We’ll see, but I wouldn’t sit Mike just because he’s playing the Guls. 

2. You might think St. Louis is a good time to start Matt Cassel – don’t be so sure. The Rams haven’t had a great season, but they’ve won two straight games, and Leonard Little’s return makes them a lot better defensively. Now offenses will have to pay a lot of attention to him, and against an offense that has allowed plenty of sacks this year, and a quarterback that holds the ball a little too long, in a game the Pats are supposed to win – well, I kind of like Matt to have a bad game this week. Don’t get caught off guard. 

3. Brandon Jacobs, a must start? I’m not sold. The Steelers did give up 67 yards to Le’Ron McClain, and he is the closest thing to what the Steelers will be facing with Jacobs, but Le”Ron is also the leading rusher against the Steelers this season. That’s right, not a single back has eclipsed the 67 yards gained by McClain. And it’s not like PIttsburgh has played bad backs. Steve Slaton has been good this year, he didn’t hit the 50 yard mark in Week 1 – Jamal Lewis was in the 30s in Week 2, Week 3 had Correll Buckhalter and the Eagels ground game get 43 yards – Week 4 was McClain’s 67 – Week 5 saw Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew rush for 26 yards on 15 carries, and Week 6 saw Cedric Benson get 52 yards in a blowout. I know the Giants run the ball well, but I can’t see Jacobs being a stud this week – in fact, I would probably rather start Sammy Morris or even Cedric Benson. Scratch that last one, but you see what I’m getting at.

Ten For Tuesday

Posted on by

Okay, it’s late tuesday and I want to get a few guys out there for you to either think about, get right now, or let someone else dabble with – here they go, more than 10, but I’ve never heard anyone argue that I’m giving you too much for your buck…

Think about…

Javon Walker: This guy has had lots of good games in the past, has a lot of talent, and if he can stay healthy he has a good opportunity with defenses paying a lot of attention to the run game. He looks to be getting it together mentally. 

Mewelde Moore: I’m still not convinced that Moore is going to be a sure thing, and Willie might be back soon, but there is no doubt that Pittsburgh likes to run the ball and I’ve always seen Moore as a back that can do solid work. He’s no sure thing, but if you need help – go for it. 

Vishante Shiancoe: I like this guy. He plays for a team that doesn’t do a lot of work through the air, but he’s had a few good games and there’s a decent chance he’s better than the TE you have right now. He’s always been talented. 

Harry Douglas: This kid just gets open. He’s a great compliment to Roddy White. I don’t know if he’ll be consistent enough, but if he’s on your keeper league waiver wire I think you’ll be very happy you grabbed him. 

Marty Booker: Books is getting a little long in the tooth, sure, but Bears opponents go after the run hard, and if Hester is out for a while I think Booker could benefit from Kyle Orton’s air attack. Launch. Still, he’s no sure thing to be a great option. 

Brandon Lloyd: Almost a sure thing to be healthy coming off a bye, and the Bears loved him in the preseason and he played well in the beginning of the year. I’m just saying. People seem to forget about guys that didn’t do great last week. 

Kevin Faulk: He might get picked up less than Green Ellis, but I think he’s the better bet to get more fantasy points – but we’ll see – neither is a great pick up. 

Go Get Them…

Josh Morgan: I liked him early, I liked him just before the season, I like him now that he’s starting. The 49ers need to throw less to win, Mike Martz doesn’t see it that way, that’s good for Morgan owners – go get him. 

Ryan Torrain: I think this is the last week you can possibly get him for free – stash him, thank me later. 

Deuce McAllister: For two to four weeks I like the big cat. Pierre Thomas too, but I’ll take Deuce over Thomas. 

 

Leave Them Alone…

Tyler Thigpen: There’s a reason the Chiefs are trying out Boomer, Steve Young, and Warren Moon on Wednesday…

Martellus Bennett: TE playing behind Jason Witten – no thanks. 

Ben-Jarvis Green Ellis: I don’t know, I’m putting him down just because someone has to run the ball for the Pats while Matt Cassel is at the helm. Still, Lamont will likely come back soon and chances are Green Ellis won’t be a decent option, I even think Sammy is solid, so this would only be a last resort pickup. I’d pass on him if you have another option. Like Deuce.