Tag Archives: Matt Schaub

Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Football Analysis Week 5

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Week 4 was historic, it was the first week that I didn’t finish first in overall fantasy rankings, a little competition we have here at LuckyLester.com. For those of you that don’t know, the staff gets together their fantasy rankings for the week, and in the Fantasy Focus review everybody gets graded based on their picks. I won the first 3 weeks before getting ousted by my chubby and generally crazy uncle. I haven’t heard the end of it since he knew he took home the gold. But hey, I still finished tied for “next” with Red Red Ryan, yet another guy that keeps telling me he’s just as good as me. It’s a tough crowd, you fall a step back one week and now you’re not the best. We’ll see… This week we have four more teams on bye, Bears, Packers, Saints, Chargers – so don’t get caught with any of those circus-squads in your starting lineup. Dream big in Week 5, almost 1/3 of the way through the fantasy season. Craziness…

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – Come on, free money, against the Titans D, he should be even better than normal.
2. Adrian Peterson – I liked him last week against the Packers, and while he didn’t do well, I won’t hesitate against STL.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – This cat is physical, ask Frank Gore what physical runners do to Seattle…
4. Matt Schaub – The Cardinals are really good against the run, good enough to score a lot, thus Matt will have a day.
5. Reggie Wayne – I can’t get enough of Reggie, he’s such a sure thing, and I expect him to do bad things to Tennessee.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Julius Jones– Julius and the Hawks were brutal last week, but against Jax’s defense, I like his upside.
2. Santana Moss – If Carolina knows what’s good for them, they’ll stack the line. That should open a few up for Moss.
3. Tim Hightower– I’d say Tim was picked in the low rounds, but he’s not full sleeper. Against Houston he could score twice.
4. Carson Palmer – I like Carson again, even against a good Ravens D – there’s room to pass in that secondary.
5. Hines Ward –Hines, like Carson, finds himself on this list for the 2nd straight week. He didn’t let me down last time.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Tashard Choice – He might be a back-up again, but if Dallas is up early, why waste Marion? They won’t, Choice gets 20 totes.
2. Jerome Harrison – I’ve always loved his vision; thought he’d do big things with lots of carries; he’ll get them again this week.
3. Mohamed Massaquoi –He’s the #1 in Cleveland now, and Derek Anderson likes him. A good play this week.
4. Steve Breaston– You can probably pick up breast in most leagues; he could be huge against Houston.
5. Eddie Royal – I have to go to this well one more week, he’s as talented as little guys come, could be huge!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Ray Rice – I would sit Rice this week, I think Cincinnati really shuts him down in Week 5.
2. Steven Jackson – Minnesota, ick. I’d rather start Mendenhall, Hightower, or Julius Jones.
3. Matt Ryan – I’d look for a better option than San Francisco’s solid defense coming off two weeks of prep.
4. Roddy White –If I don’t like Matty Ice, I really don’t like Roddy going against Nate Clements all day long.
5. Larry Johnson – Get ready for less than 3 yards per rush against Dallas.

PS – Bye weeks are back, and here for some time, recognize! Mind the gap!

Week 5 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

Ryan Kauffman	        Josh Arsenault		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning   	1.Peyton Manning	1.Matt Schaub   	1.Peyton Manning
2.Kurt Warner   	2.Tom Brady     	2.Kurt Warner     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Ben Roethlisberger 	3.Donovan McNabb     	3.Tony Romo     	3.Donovan McNabb
4.Joe Flacco     	4.Matt Schaub     	4.Peyton Manning 	4.Carson Palmer
5.Tom Brady     	5.David Garrard    	5.Donovan McNabb	5.Kurt Warner
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson
2.Chris Johnson 	2.Brandon Jacobs  	2.Rashard Mendenhall  	2.Maurice Jones-Drew
3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.DeAngelo Williams  	3.Chris Johnson 	3.Brandon Jacobs
4.DeAngelo Williams	4.Clinton Portis    	4.Brian Westbrook 	4.Rashard Mendenhall
5.Brandon Jacobs 	5.Rashard Mendenhall   	5.Glen Coffee   	5.Tim Hightower

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Reggie Wayne	        1.Reggie Wayne          1.T.J. Housmandzadeh 	1.Reggie Wayne
2.Andre Johnson 	2.Andre Johnson   	2.Reggie Wayne		2.DeSean Jackson
3.Larry Fitzgerald  	3.Anquan Boldin 	3.Larry Fitzgerald   	3.Anquan Boldin
4.Derrick Mason    	4.Brandon Marshall 	4.Andre Johnson 	4.Chad Ochocinco
5.Hines Ward    	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Mike Sims-Walker	5.Andre Johnson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Jason Witten		2.Tony Gonzalez 	2.Chris Cooley
3.Chris Cooley		3.Tony Gonzalez		3.Vernon Davis  	3.Owen Daniels
4.John Carlson   	4.Brent Celek   	4.Chris Cooley		4.Tony Gonzalez
5.Vernon Davis  	5.Vernon Davis   	5.Dustin Keller 	5.Jason Witten

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Vikings		1.Vikings		1.Giants		1.Giants
2.Steelers		2.Giants        	2.Vikings		2.Vikings
3.Giants 		3.Eagles 		3.Eagles		3.Jets
4.Jets   		4.Cowboys  		4.Ravens		4.Eagles
5.Patriots		5.Jets  		5.Steelers		5.Steelers

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Laces out, just like our kickers, out of the rankings! When the toe kick returns, we're back in!

Last Minute Fantasy Football: Projections by Ryan

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This season is going to be crazy in Fantasy Football. How crazy? These things are going to happen. Some say they are a little bold, a couple guys’ say they are just plain nuts, but when all these “crazy” predictions come true remember who was behind these pre-season projections. I’ve got one for every single team in the league, that’s 32 chances at brilliance. The season start’s Thursday, and it won’t take long to see I’m onto something good.

1. Lee Evans out scores TO.

2. Ted Ginn Jr. gets 80 catches, 1100 yards, and 8 TD’s.

3. Laurence Maroney leads the Pats in rushing TD’s and rushing yards.

4. Mark Sanchez throws more INT’s than TD’s.

5. Joe Flacco throws 20+ TD’s.

6. Carson Palmer is a Top 10 QB.

7. Braylon Edwards remembers he is a freak of nature and looks more like the 2007 Braylon with 90 catches for 1300 yards and 12 TD’s.

8. Santonio Holmes leads the Steelers in receiving yards.

9. Matt Schaub finishes the season playing in every game and a Top 5 QB.

10. Joseph Addai finishes the season with more than 600 yards and 6 TD’s ahead of Donald Brown.

11. Tory Holt grabs 11 TD’s

12. Vince Young starts more games than Kerry Collins

13. Eddie Royal finishes the season with more catches, yards, and TD’s than Brandon Marshall.

14. Larry Johnson rushes for 1200 yards and 10 TD’s.

15. Darrius Heyward-Bay shocks everyone but me and halls in 60 catches for 900 yards and 6 TD’s.

16. LT has one great season left in him and goes off for 1800 total yards and 15 TD’s.

17. Tony Romo finishes the season outside the Top 15 QB’s.

18. Brandon Jacobs plays in less than half the Giants games.

19. Mike Vick starts at least 3 games for the Eagles.

20. Beanie Wells leads all rookie RB’s in rushing yards and TD’s.

21. Steven Jackson finally stays healthy for 16 games and is a top 3 RB.

22. Michael Crabtree signs by week 3 in San Fran, catches 65 balls for 800 yards and 6 TD’s.

23. Julius Jones rushes for more than 800 yards and 8 TD’s.

24. Jason Cambell throws 26 TD’s and less than 10 INT’s.

25. Jay Cutler throws more INT’s than TD’s.

26. Kevin Smith puts up another solid year in Detroit with 1400 total yards 60 catches and 10 TD’s.

27. Ryan Grant breaks out for 1400 yards rushing and 12 TD’s.

28. Adrian Peterson rushes for 2100 yards and 16 TD’s.

29. Tony Gonzalez catches less than 6 TD’s

30. DeAngelo Williams doesn’t share as many carries, as “The Daily Show” struggles to stay healthy, and puts up better numbers than 2008.

31. Reggie Bush plays in 14 games and outscores Pierre Thomas.

32. TB starts 3 QB’s during the year and they are all bad.

Ask Papa Weimer: 2009 #1

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Hey there, I’m back and at it again. If you know me, you can dig it – I’m an old SOB with a little bit of love for making a mockery of the game while giving help to the fantasy junkies out there. Once again I’ll be writing “Ask Papa Weimer” segments throughout the season based solely on your questions and comments during the year. Now, more than ever, is a busy fantasy time, and there’s lots of questions already coming in more than a month before the season starts. If you feel the urge, want a question asked, or feel like attempting to make a fool out of me anytime from now until the end of the season, do so by mailing your words to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – you ask I’ll answer, as easy as that. My good man David e-mailed me a bunch of questions, so I figured I’d have a nice “Owed to David” Q&A period. Here’s me doing work…

#1 – “I saw Lucky Lester’s article on the QBs: very interesting. If you had to get a good QB would you go after one of your first and 2nd tier guys, or would you wait? Last year you told me about Cutler, and he was great even with the interceptions. It seems you are high on Schaub. If I go after him as my #1 who should I get as a backup?”

If I had to get a top QB (First two tiers), I might shoot for Aaron Rodgers. That guy is legit and his offensive weapons are a plenty. Plus he plays the Lions and Vikings 4 times, and even the Bears aren’t awesome at stopping the air attack. Playing in GB late in the season didnt’ seem to bother him last year. But honestly, unless the value was right, I’d probably wait. I’ve never been a guy to grab a QB early. If I wasn’t going for a top tier guy, I think Matt Schaub and David Garard should both have big seasons, Matt Ryan and Matt Hasselbeck are both high upside guys for where you can get them, even though Ryan is riding some hype – he doesn’t seem to be going too high. I wouldn’t overspend for him, but he could have a huge year. Remember, they’re still going to hand the ball off around 500 times, tough to pile up 300+ yard games with that being the case, but lots of weapons and lots of talent. If you’re going super sleepers, Sage Rosenfels, Jason Campbell, Daunte Culpepper, and Jake Delhomme could be steals. I think Jake will be better this year, a couple seasons after surgery, Daunte couldn’t have lost all his talent and they have a couple good offensive players to help him (CJ and Kevin Smith), Campbell will be better this year (that’s just a fact, kid has enough skills and now has a year in that offense unde his belt), and Sage (if he gets the job) has BB, Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor, and this little guy named Adrian Peterson to help him produce some offense. With all the focus of oposing defenses keying in on the run-game, Sage could put up some nice numbers.

#2 “I am in 2 leagues. One is a PPR and the other is traditional scoring. If you had to list 6 RBs and WRs that were a must have. Who would they be in each of the different formats. Also do you have any RBs or WRs that would be good values flying under the radar?”

6WRs – Must Have:
Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, and Roddy White (but he might be overvalued, and I like those top 5 more I think. I say this because there are so many weapons in Atlanta now, and with so many carries for Turner and Norwood, I think it might be tough for White to get as many looks as last season, but the kid is the real deal) – but for a couple must have lower level guys – Vincent Jackson, Dominek Hixon, Anthony Gonzalez – all three aren’t valued very high, and all three have a great chance to put up great numbers. Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings lose a little ground in PPR where Eddie Royal, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe move up a little. Reggie Wayne too. A super sleeper couple would go to Hines Ward (still nobody loves that guy, but so consistent) and even more sleepy, Josh Morgan, and even sleepier – Mike Thomas (but he might be too sleepy to draft, as he’s just a 4th round rookie, just keep your eye on him in jacksonville). Mike Walker might be a safer sleeper in Jax, very talented young player that has battled injuries much of his pro career – but next to Torry Holt he could be very sneaky good.

6RBs- Must Have:
Maurice Jones Drew, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, Steve Slaton – I love LT’s value this year though, he might go in late round 1, or round 2, and he could be had at a good price in auctions – but I think he’ll be good, despite turning 30. Steve Slaton and Jones Drew could have huge years as key backs in their offenses, both teams will be improved this season. Slaton, Drew, and Forte all get raised value in PPR while AP and Turner lose some umph, but should be Top 5-6 picks anyway. Sleepers would go McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall – all 1st rounders last year, weird. I’ll throw Derrik Ward and Felix Jones into that list too, neither seem to be getting their due love. A couple rookies I like this year, (aside from Knowshon and Beanie of course) – LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown – solid runners, and Brown does everything well. A deeeeeeep sleeper, Justin Forsett in Seattle, real talented small back, so very different than Jones and Ducket, and from what I remember that new Seattle head guy knows how to use little talented backs to compile yardage.

#3 “How would you rank the following TEs  Olson, Z Miller, Carlson, D Keller, Cooley, Celek, Daniels?”

Cooley, Miller, Daniels, Olson, Carlson, Keller, and Celek…. Cooley is my favorite, but the next four guys are in a basic tie for 2nd. I wouldn’t waste a top pick on a top TE (Gonzo, Witten, Gates, Cooley – though Cooley is cheaper always) because those four guys (Miller, Daniels, Olson, and Carlson) are pretty damn consistent for their cheap draft slot.

#4 “Any defenses jump out at you this season?”

I like what the Bears did late last season, and Tommie Harris looks healthy – that guy is an absolute beast when healthy, a true game changer at DT. The Chargers should be better, too – and of course the Ravens are always legit. The Titans will keep doing work, but they lost some power up front. But don’t spend much on defenses, none look brilliant to me ala the old Bears or Ravens, and overspending on Ds can kill you.

#5 “I would like to hear your thoughts on LT, S Slaton, Grant, Ronnie and Donald Brown, Beanie, McFadden,  Barber, J Stewart, and Portis?”

Above I said that I love LT and Slaton this year, Ryan Grant and Ronnie Brown should be good values too. Ryan even more than Ronnie, more touchdowns and yards for Grant this year, almost a guarantee. Beanie is always an injury risk because he is a big guy that runs really fast, seems to spell trouble, but what an opportunity for him to shine in Arizona – he’s a much better option than 2.8 a game Tim Hightower. McFadden is a good sleeper as is The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart, Stewart might just be the highest scoring fantasy back in Carolina this year, and considering how much later you can get him than DeAngelo, he could be a steal. I’m afraid about Portis, even though he’s still young, 27 going on  35 you know… But he seems to be slipping in drafts, so could be a good bargain. Marion Barber, a guy I love as a player as much as anyone in the league, but I’m not sure how many touches he’ll get. Still, with TO out that makes room for 140 or so targets, which should keep Barber in the action, and he’s a very good receiver too – maybe more catches for him this year – more touchdowns this time around for sure. Still, there’s 3 good backs in Dallas – but Barber should be top 10 in production amongst RBs.

#6 “I do appreciate the tiers. They help a lot! Don’t  let Lucky leave out Andre this year though… Haha.”

That youngster won’t get away with that this year – you’d think he was the old, saggy, frump-housed old man. Andre’s going to be right at the top if Lucky knows what’s best for him. Good luck to ya David!

Five for Friday

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You have the feeling? 

Is it a gut feeling or a stupid feeling? Maybe both?

Well, if you need some help starting or choosing a starter between two guys, I’m the one to help you out. This week I have 5 examples of reader emails that ask who would I rather start – these are my answers. 

1. Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler: Wow, that’s a tough one there but I’m going with Schaub. I don’t think the Broncos will have to score as much to win their game, and with Ryan Torrain in the game (or so I am fooled to believe he’ll be starting) I think Cutler will throw less. That being said, they are both great options with great physical receivers, can’t really lose here. 

2. Matt Forte or Chris Johnson: PPR this is an easy Matt Forte answer, even without PPR to help me out with 5 catches for Matt, I think I’m rocking Forte against the Lions. Clinton Portis put up a ton of yards against Detroit last week and he didn’t even play the whole time. Forte is the Bears rushing attack, and while Chris Johnson has a nice match-up against a suddenly porous Packer defense, he also has LenDale White thieving carries – Forte is all by himself in Detroit. 

3. Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall (I can start 2): I’m going with Andre and Brandon because they play mediocre to bad secondaries and they have studs throwing them the ball. Dan Orlovsky isn’t my favorite QB to be throwing the ball to my WR. That being said, I like Calvin this week too. 

4. Julius Jones, Cedric Benson, Jerious Norwood: Norwood and it isn’t really that close. PPR of course. If not, I guess I’d roll with Benson, though I wouldn’t like it. I think Norwood gets at least 4 catches and 6-10 carries against the Raiders – here breaks on and he’s well worth your time, even as a guaranteed back-up plan. 

5. Steve Slaton or Jamal Lewis: Jamal has been pretty good against the Ravens and Slaton is going to be busting his ace for 4 yards a carry against the Vikings defense. That being said I still think Slaton attacks the Vikings in the air a bit, and he’s pretty quick so he might do alright on the ground. I don’t see Jamal having much of a day against this particular Baltimore defense. 

Good luck penguins!

theRUNDOWN: Week 9

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Just in case you didn’t catch it, this is my RUNDOWN for Week 8…

QB: Matt Schaub vs. Minnesota: Maybe I’m a little edgy for taking Schaub (and his Texans) to do good work on the road against a team coming off a bye. My guess, Minnesota didn’t fix their terrible secondary over a bye week. 

RB: Matt Forte vs. Detroit: Clinton Portis killed the Lions in limited action – I expect Detroit to be a little better, but Matt is a big time focus of the Lions offense – I can’t imagine him getting less than 20 fantasy points this week. 

RB: Earnest Graham vs. Kansas City: Thomas Jones was the guy hurt most by the Jets willingness to throw interceptions last week, well, I think Earnest Graham does work against the Chiefs in Week 9. Warrick Dunn is likely out for this contest, leaving Graham to snag all the carries. 

FLEX: Brandon Marshall vs. Miami: The Dolphins are solid run stuffers, and their secondary is porous. Marshall hasn’t gone off in a while now, and I expect that to change in a hurry. 

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. St. Louis: Anquan Boldin has been catching all the touchdowns, but I get a feeling that Fitz will be the high scorer for the Cards this week. 

WR: Andre Johnson vs. Minnesota: Honestly, I’d take Johnson against any defense in the league. That being said, I get a little smile when I see MInnesota on the schedule. All Andre needs to do is score, he has only two on the season. 

TE: Zach Miller vs. Atlanta: A big sure handed TE is a quarterback’s best friend. In PPR leagues I think Miller has a really nice day against the Falcons secondary. 

K: Matt Prater vs. Miami: IN Denver against a defense that isn’t good enough to shut down the Broncos, but isn’t bad enough to allow touchdowns on every drive, I think Prater gets his leg going. 

D: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle: The Eagles can really get after the quarterback, they have 3 talented corners, (very talented), and they have playmaking safeties. They should eat up the Seagulls. 

PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

David Garrad: This time Garrard gets Cincinnati and I think he has a decent day, he’s not my favorite sleeper, but he’s worth a shot. 

Chad Pennington: I know it’s a bye week happy stat, but just one quarterback over the past 4 weeks has thrown for more yards than Pennington (Brees I think) – I know that sounds crazy, but Chad has been putting up close to 300 or more every week. This week is Denver sans Champ Bailey – yhatzee!!!

Maurice Jones Drew: Big week for MJD. 

Justin Fargas: Not only has Fargas been the best back in Oakland, but this week he’ll likely go at the Atlanta Falcons without Darren McFadden stealing his touches. I like my chances on picking up Fargas and starting him. 

Donnie Avery: This may be a duh call, but Avery goes up against a Cardinals secondary that can really give up the deep ball – he’s bee good lately, and Arizona can stop the run enough to force the pass – and force it the Rams will.

Chad Johnson: It’s been a tough year when Chad Johnson has been relegated to Sleeper status. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be getting a little more comfortable and Chad could always have a huge day. He’s no sure thing, but against a mediocre Jags secondary, I think Chad has a solid day. 80 yards and a score for his best day of the year?

Greg Olsen: Greg goes up against the Lions. He’s talented and a tough match-up for a slow secondary. Seems like a good play to me. 

New England Patriots: This may be a long shot, but the Colts have no running attack, that allows Coach Bill to scheme against one thing, the pass. They may be hurting, but I like the Pats to get to Manning and produce a few turnovers. 

Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Big Ben Roethlisberger: This guy is bound to get hurt with the way teams hit him – he’s a questionable play the rest of the season in my mind – I think Washington gets to him a few times here. 

Ryan Grant: Those who know me know I dig Ryan Grant, but the cat has been struggling with lots of carries and minimal yards against pretty pathetic defenses. These are the Titans, and in greek mythology the Titans were even greater than the gods… 

Edgerrin James: For eternity folks, bench him that long. I’ve been one of his biggest fans, but there’s a time when you have to let go, when he’s still a strong bench him candidate against the Rams, now’s that time. 

Terrell Owens: TO has the ability to go off anytime – he historically eats up the Giants – all that means little to me right now because I’m benching TO this week. 

Five for Friday

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I know my uncle does the good starts bad starts “theRUNDOWN” action, but this week I have some solid plays that you might be steering clear of. Just remember, just because there’s a tough match-up doesn’t mean you should ignore your good players – it also means that you might be starting a lesser option (ie Thomas Jones) over a better player (ie Michael Turner) to get the best chance of big points. Here’s my Top 5 “interesting” starts of the week. 

Matt Schaub is going up against the 6th ranked pass defense, but that doesn’t mean you should start him. In fact, I’d start him over Brett Favre and a bunch of quarterbacks ranked higher than Matty. Schaub should do work against the Bengals, and I don’t expect him to slow down at all this week. Andre Johnson plays like a big brother beasting opposing corner backs, and I see that trend continuing against the youngsters manning the corner in Cincinnati. 

Jeff Garcia is playing at Dallas. Dallas is in shambles and while I wouldn’t shoot for Garcia many weeks, I think his numbers against the Cowboys should be solid. I think Dallas will play better against the run, but Garcia and the Bucs should find plenty of room in Dallas’s secondary. Garcia makes plays with his feet, and that should be on display this week in Dallas. 

Michael Turner plays a top rated run defense when the Eagles host the Falcons this week, and most people are resting Turner thinking he’ll get shut down like he has recently against very good run defenses. Not to fast on labeling the Eagles stout against the run, though. See, Philly gave up about 150 to Portis and 101 to Gore (in limited rushes) in back to back weeks. Turner runs hard, and Philly’s front line is undersized. Maybe this isn’t such a bad match-up after all. 

I see some things out there saying, “Don’t start Cotchery against the Chiefs” and I can’t seem to figure it out. Sure, the Jets will probably run twice as much as they pass, but Brett takes chances, it’s just part of his game. It doesn’t look like Coles will be playing this week, and Cotchery is the better receiver anyway. All things aside, I’d bet Cotchery gets about 7 balls for 80+ yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. Those are start him numbers to me. 

Nate Washington against the Giants. Santonio Holmes might be suspended, and Nate is a good bet to get 5 or 6 looks even if he doesn’t start. Mewelde Moore and the Steeler running game won’t be great this week and that means Big Ben will have to pass. I like Washington’s size and Ben’s confidence going to him in and near the red zone. I think he’s a solid start this week, where most people aren’t even thinking about getting him close to roster spot, let alone a starting lineup. Swim against the flow!

theRUNDOWN: Week 1

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2008’s Week 1 is upon us. Thursday Night’s contest pitting the Giants against their in-conference rival Redskins makes for good TV, but does that match-up make for good fantasy fun? Hard to tell. I have a sleeper or two from that group, but as far as fantasy studs, I’ll stay away. These are my favorite players to start, some sleepers, and some guys to avoid on Sunday – This is theRUNDOWN for Week 1 – write this down!

QB: Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco: Last time Kurt played the Niners he approached 500 passing yards. He didn’t get it, but he surely sniffed it. I don’t think he’ll do that kind of colossus damage, but he should be one of the best starting options in Week 1. I’ll take him as my quarterbacking bell-cow.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Carolina: I have to take LT because he’s scored on opening day in every single season but one in his NFL career. That’s something right? He doesn’t have the best match-up ever, but he’s still going to show the Panthers a thing or two.

RB: Marion Barber vs. Cleveland: I know the Browns got much better defensively, but I just have a feeling. This is wear I put guys down that I have feelings about.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Kansas City: Because why not? Moss is one of the best receivers in the game and he’s going to KC where nobody on the roster can guard him. Seems like a no-brainer.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Cleveland: Yes, I will start TO and Randy and smile the whole time. Cleveland’s secondary doesn’t stand much of a chance against the Cowboys passing attack – TO is a big reason why. The only guy I’d consider instead of Owens is Calvin Johnson, but I figured I’d start with Randy and TO and go from there.

TE: Tony Scheffler vs. Oakland: Without Brandon Marshall I just have to believe Scheffler gets about 10 targets on Monday Night. That’s good enough for me to give him the nod.

K: Josh Brown vs. Philadelphia: Brown struggled in the pre-season, making me wonder if Seattle can see the future. I doubt it though, why would they have resigned Shaunna Alexander if they could see the future? Its an ongoing joke that I can’t pick good kicking options- we’ll see if that continues through Week 1.

D: Patriots vs. Kansas City: I just feel like the Patriots are pretty good and the KC offense is horrendous. Is that wrong?

LUCKY’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

Matt Schaub: I think Warner could be a bit of a sleeper, but since I took him as my top option, he really doesn’t work here. In that case I’ll roll with Matt Schaub. I think he can do his part to torch the Steelers defense despite most people predicting a Pittsburgh beat down.

Aaron Rodgers: You bet – this kid is going to be good. Why not start in Week 1 against a suspect secondary?

Chris Johnson: He needs to make one guy miss and then run away from everyone else. I think CJ will be a lot like Maurice Jones Drew in MJD’s rookie run. Even against Jax, I like CJ as a sleeper.

Maurice Morris: It seems like a lot of people don’t realize it, but Morris is the starter in Seattle. They go up against a Bills team that doesn’t do many things great defensively. I am willing to bet that Morris is a double digit fantasy scorer this Sunday.

Matt Forte: This rookie goes up against the Colts. That’s what I’m saying. He’s starter worthy.

Nate Burleson: He’s the #1 target in Seattle and while that would normally give him the opposing defense’s best corner back, Buffalo really doesn’t have one of those. He’s a nice option on Sunday.

Roddy White: After a great ’07 season Roddy seemed to fall down in drafts for some reason. I wonder if it’s because Atlanta’s QB play last year was good and this year they have a rookie? Hmmm… Nope, they just cut the guy that started most of ’07. I like Roddy no matter who is throwing him the ball.

Robert Meachem: There’s a chance Meachem is the deep threat right off the bat in New Orleans. With Tampa giving Colston, Shockey, and Bush lots of attention I have a feeling Meachem could get loose for a couple big plays.

Zach Miller: The Raiders will have to throw the ball to someone on Monday against Denver. Miller won’t be getting blanketed by Champ Bailey or Dre Bly. So yeah, I think he’s a top 12 starting option this weekend.

Bengals: One would hate to ever have to start the Bengals week in and week out, but they should make some plays against the Ravens sputtering offense. (Yes, they will sputter early). There are worse defenses out there, and the Bengals have the playmakers to score a touchdown or two.

LUCKY’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Drew Brees: The proof is there, this high scorer rarely does a lot of damage against the Bucs – if you have a decent back-up option, start him instead.

Ryan Grant and Adrian Peterson: I don’t think either of these defensive lines will allow a 100 yard rusher in Week 1 – even though AP and Grant are beasts, this isn’t a good match-up for either of them.

Bernard Berrien: I like BB’s chances to have a great season, but he just seems to get pushed around by the physical corners in Green Bay. We’ll see, but there’s a good chance that continues.

Willie Parker: I like me some Fast Willie Parker, but I think Houston is much improved up front, and they will make Pittsburgh beat them through the air.

It looks like I’ll have a nice little team on my bench this week.

Super Sleepers: Fantasy Football 2008

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Sleeper: A player that is either very young and or expectations are relatively low – for the most part this “unheard of” doesn’t get drafted in the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts and is, more often than not, undrafted.

That’s right, all those sleeper articles led by Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Calvin Johnson, Earnest Graham and Thomas Jones are just flat out ridiculous. Sure, they may be undervalued now, but they are by no means sleeper – they were either good last year, are great rookie players, or were good prior to last season. My wifey (that’s right) even knows who McFadden and Calvin are – that should be deal breaker number one seeing if a player makes “sleeper” lists. Josh Morgan? No clue who that is – sign him up! Here they are, enjoy. The numbers in parenthesis are projections for the season.

Rookie Sleepers

1. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (140 carries 800 rush yards, 45 catches 450 receiving, 8TDs): In a PPR league this kid is a lock to put up startable stats week in and week out. He’s the fastest guy on the field every single time he steps on the turf. When I say a guy is a sleeper it means he has the chance to be startable for at least half of the season and he usually gets picked after Round 10. Chris has the upside of a starting running back – that’s my kind of sleeper.

2. Steve Slaton, RB, Houston Texans (130 carries 600 rush yards, 30 catches 280 receiving, 4 TDs): For lack of a better option in Houston, Steve could end up getting about 15 touches a game. He’s already the scarriest and most dynamic rusher on the team, now he just has to get over the rookie jitters and the urge to bounce outside. Slaton was dominant two seasons ago in college, and believe me, he still has that ability. I’m not as high on him as I am on Chris, but Slaton’s small stature shouldn’t keep you from taking a chance on him. He has the makings of a good one cut runner.

3. Ryan Torain, RB, Denver Broncos (155 carries 750 yards, 7TDs): You know Selvin Young is going to fumble once or twice and Splinter is going to lose his marbles. That’s about when Ryan will be coming off of the injured list and stepping right into a nice little time share. Torain’s style reminds me of Ryan Grant and he could be a great option for a Denver attack that hasn’t had a tough runner in some time. He will likely miss the first 4-6 games but remember, Ryan Grant only started 10 games and what kind of impact did he have last season?

4. Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos (55 catches 850 yards 6 TDs): First of all, I love Jay Cutler’s game. Second of all, Royal is already a starter in Splinter’s master plan, and he’ll stay with the #1 unit even after Marshall gets back. Royal has a lot of explosive potential and it looks like he’s going to get his fair share of chances. He’s basically not getting picked right now, but with Cutler and Marshall and Scheffler and a running game to worry about, Royal might just find himself with room to run and that’s a good thing for Fantasy owners.

5. Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets (40 catches, 420 yards, 5 TDs): I’m basically relying on Brett to make a relationship with the young speedster out of Purdue. Honestly, Keller is much more of a receiver than a TE, but that’s great for Fantasy Football. Keller is a big match-up problem for most teams, and the fact that the Jets grabbed him early makes me think that they want him to get the ball. Coles and Cotchery will leave him all by himself with a safety to beat, and with his speed that’s very possible.

6. Josh Morgan, WR, San Francisco 49ers (70 catches, 840 yards, 4 TDs or look at Shaun McDonald’s numbers last season): I know they are just pre-season stats, but 4 catches for 68 yards, then 5 catches for 114 yards and a TD, he’s a possible super Mike Martz unknown 3rd receiver – c’mon, he has to be on sleeper lists, right? Not yet, but he is now. Take this guy in the last round, watch every other owner in your league look at you like you’re a moron, and then manage to start him and beat other teams with his production. Its a fun game I call “Told you so, Bitches!”. Play it with the people you are closest to, it’s a blast. Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald – did you think they’d be fantasy relevant? Exactly.

Non-Rookie Sleepers

1. Justin Gage, WR, Tennessee Titans (67 catches 900 yards, 5 TDs) : I don’t know if I fully believe it, but apparently Vince Young is more accurate than ever. If Justin can improve on his 750 yards and two touchdowns he might just be fantasy worthy. I think Young will be a little better throwing the ball, and right now Gage is the only sure-thing receiver in the starting line-up. That’s worth a very late pick right there.

2. Devin Hester, WR, CHicago Bears (60 catches, 900 yards, 11 TDs): Call me a Hester fan, hell, make me the president of his fan club, I don’t care, the guy is electric with the ball in his hands. He sees the game at a high speed, and he can take angles and make cuts that didn’t previously exist. Right now he’s the #1 receiver in Chicago, and while that’s not too much to be excited about, it does mean that he’ll be targeted quite a bit. If Hester gets 10 targets a game I bet he scores double digit touchdowns. He’s getting picked way too late right now. People are calling him a “bust” potentially but that’s some awkward joke, right? I mean, he doesn’t get picked until after the 10th round, even if he has a bad year it’s not like you blew an early pick on him.

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (3,300 yards, 22 TDs): The Packers may have been a little bit stubborn with Brett, but they didn’t get rid of the icon to give the reigns of this team to a guy without the ability to drive the sled. Rodgers has a great arm, a solid offensive line, and one of the best receiving corps in the entire league. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones – these guys are studs that do quarterback’s favors. Defenses will be focussed in on Ryan Grant and that rushing attack, and Aaron will get the best of them early.

4. D.J. Hackett, WR, Carolina Panthers (65 catches, 800 yards, 6 TDs): I’ve always liked D.J. I’ve seen him play a lot and I always thought, when he was on the field, he was the best receiver in Seattle. If he stays healthy all season in Carolina he’ll bust those numbers I projected above. I think he’ll get those numbers in 12 healthy contests. He should start the year off with a bang too, he’ll be the #1 in Carolina, a receiving position that always justifies fantasy attention.

5. Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona Cardinals (45 catches, 600 yards, 4 TDs): So, there are many people that like Early Doucett to take Bryant Johnson’s old #3 gig, and a the others seem to like Jeremiah Urban – well I like Breaston. We’ll see how it works out, don’t draft him unless it’s a deep, deep league – but pay attention to this guy and see if he wins the gig. Boldin could be a wild card and Breaston might make it to #2???

6. Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans (3,500 yards, 20 TDs): This kid is a stud. He had some great performances in 2007, but had a season cut short by some injuries. I like his chances to carve up the AFC South. The Colts don’t really have much of a secondary and he’ll have to throw against the Titans and Jaguars. He still doesn’t have a stud running back to depend on, but Slaton will give him some nice yards on dump down passes, and if Chris Brown can stay relatively healthy he can be a good compliment. As a back-up, Schaub will have some nice starts for fantasy owners.