Tag Archives: Kurt Warner

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 2

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I’m back with my big belly, my bigger brain, and my even bigger… umm…. feet. My feet are huge for being a relatively short guy, size 12.5, that’s pretty big. What I hate more than anything is trying to jam into a 12 or flopping around like a clown in a 13. Plus, only a few shoes have 12.5 – regardless, I’ve found another thing to be angry about, and I’m going to talk about it now. Deciding to go receiver happy in one of my drafts has gotten me no where, and it’s not because my running backs have disappointed. I snagged Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez and look where that’s gotten me – no wins, one loss, damn! Lucky tries to tell me to hold tight, relax, you’ll be fine, but I can’t help but hate the fact that I got expensive receivers when I would have been happy as can be with guys like Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, Wes Welker, and Devin Hester… Okay, damn, I’m sick of complaining – damn receivers! lets answer some questions…

Cozmo in San Antonio asks, “Should I sell Adrian Peterson now or wait until Detroit? I have some holes at receiver and I’m pretty sure I could get Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Eddie Royal for AP all by himself. What should I do? Can I really live with myself trading AP?”

Honestly, I would probably make that trade, but I’m a value whore, and certainly think all three of those guys will have solid seasons. All three have very low value after week 1 (because of their low output to start the year), and right now nobody’s value is higher than APs. However, it probably depends on the rest of your roster. There’s no point to upgrade a little and end up dropping solid guys in the process. If you have decent receivers, you might want to stand pat with AP, he looks like a 2000 yard back, and there’s no doubt that kind of production will keep you in games. But if you do have a hole, like you say, AJ and CJ and a guy like Royal looks pretty good. As always, see if you can get more somewhere else. I’m not sure you could get too much more than that, but shoot, it doesn’t hurt to try. AP might have even more value after running into Detroit this next week, but then again, I’m not sure he could have more value than 180 yards and 3 scores…

Dennis in Alaska says, “Last week you told me I should start Eddie Royal over Hines Ward, what gives?”

That being said, I also told you to start Julius Jones over Chris Johnson, which would have made up for that Royal over Ward advice. I still think Royal will have a huge year, and would probably start him over Ward again, despite their Week 1 totals. You can’t get angry at the single piece of poor advice that I give you when I feed you good stuff until you’re belly limits the vision when you pee. You have to understand, this is sport, these guys can surprise even the best fantasy minds – but I’m guessing you didn’t start Julius over Chris, or you probably wouldn’t have written in with frustration.

Dennis in Alaska replies, “Touche. I listened to the bad advice and left the good advice on my bench. It would have been about even had I listened to both. Well played. Thanks for the free advice. On that note, do you start Chris, Julius, Thomas Jones, or Tim Hightower this week? I need two.

No problem, my  man, just doing work. I would start Chris against Houston, he should blow them up. I would leave Julius on the bench this week, the Niners are tough against the run, and he won’t catch too many balls out of the backfield. I would probably go with Thomas against the Patriots. I don’t think the Pats will be great against the run with Seymour in Oakland, and Mayo on the bench. TJ should get plenty of carries this weekend. Tim put up good numbers, but I bet he never catches that many passes again, plus Beanie looked like the better runner, and I imagine he’ll take carries away from Tim a little this week against a mediocre Jags defensive front. I still think Hightower is a solid play, I just like Jones more. Good luck, hopefully I get them both right this week!

Do I trade Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Ward for Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Ward is my #4 running back behind Maurice Jones Drew, Kevin Smith, and Clinton Portis and ahead of Jamal Lewis. Boldin would be my highest ranked receiver in front of Houshmandzadeh, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez. Deal or no deal?

Deal. I think Boldin will be a beast starting in probably Week 3, he might be a so-so play while healing from his hammy injury – however, it could also linger. I think it’s a good low risk play by you because when healthy Boldin is a Top 10 guy easily, and it’s not like Warner is a much lower play than Rodgers. You get some big upside while losing a time share running back and for this season probably lose nothing at quarterback. Kurt played poorly in Week 1, but I doubt that continues as long as he stays on the field. It’s not like Aaron Rogers has been the beacon of health in his career either. Take a chance, good upside for you there.

I’m out of here to write some receiver hate mail to all those fantasy guys that advised me to go WR late in the first round…. blast them!!!

Dominate Your Draft: Fantasy Football Predictions from Josh

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Better late than never, my fantasy predictions for the 2009 NFL season are here to ease your draft day anxieties.  There is a ton of value to be found in the mid-to-late rounds this year, especially at the running back position.  Wise owners will recognize the opportunity to load up on WR talent in the early rounds if they don’t find themselves in a position to grab one of the top three or four running backs.  Remember, fantasy championships are rarely won in the first few rounds of a draft, but they can definitely be lost.  Be a savvy owner this season and choose based upon value, not name recognition.  With that in mind, here are the true pearls of wisdom to guide you on your path to fantasy greatness … because anything worth doing is worth doing better than your friends.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4th round? … yes please!

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

9.  Speakig of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

theRUNDOWN: Week 15

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For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else – This is theRUNDOWN for Week 15. 

QB: Kurt Warner vs. Minnesota: Part of me wants to take Drew Brees on Thursday Night, because he might just go off for 400+ yards and do the Bears in real good. However, I’m headed to Arizona instead, and I’m seeing if I can’t follow the Cardinals and Kurt Warner in what might very well be a 3 or 4 passing touchdown night. 

RB: DeAngelo Williams vs. Denver: The Broncos have actually been solid against the run the last couple weeks, but something tells me that trend ends against the Panthers. DeAngelo probably won’t be that sore either, I think Tampa only tackled him a handful of times. Jon Stewart is probably a solid play as well. 

RB: Matt Forte vs. New Orleans: I think Forte will have 100+ rushing and 50+ receiving, and maybe even a couple touchdowns against the Saints on short notice. Those are #1 type numbers so I’ll go with the rookie back for what I think is the 3rd straight week. 

FLEX: Brian Westbrook vs. Cleveland: Part of me expects Brian Westbrook and the Eagles to play poor this week, well, because they are now supposed to play well. Tough team to figure out. That being said, bugger me if I don’t get on this train whilst it’s at a pace steady enough for me to jump on. 

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Minnesota: This one has the makings of a shootout, and I want this PPR superstar rocking the fantasy roster for my squad. 

WR: Greg Jennings vs. Jacksonville: The Jaguars aren’t good – Greg is, the Packers should do lots of running and throwing in Jacksonville – here’s me hoping the majority of those throws go to Mr. Jennings. 

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. San Diego: I’m riding the old man out in this one. He’s one of the best around, as consistent as they get, and San Diego isn’t much for stopping the pass. 

K: Olindo Mare vs. St. Louis: Tough to throw my kicker of the week in Seattle’s offense, but why not? This guy is playing in St. Louis and the Hawks are bound to attempt 3 or 4 field goals. 

D: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland: This blitz-happy system scaring Ken Dorsey like he’s in some horror movie with frightening little kids that make creepy faces – sign me up. 

PAPA’S Week 15 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: Always going to be here? Yep. 

Kyle Orton: Yes sir. 

Seneca Wallace: I like the confidence Seneca is playing with right now, and honestly, I think he should be the guy starting in Seattle with Matt the way he is anyway. Obviously Hasselbeck doesn’t have his back quite right and Seattle doesn’t need to throw him out there for any reason. 

Pierre Thomas: I want Thomas again this week – he runs very hard. Maybe this is why he was in front of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois. Still, I think BOTH running backs are solid. 

Kevin Smith: The Lions are going to run no matter what, Smith is a good young back and the Colts (while the do have Bob back) aren’t the best run defense in the league. In a push he’s a decent option. 

Jonathan Stewart: He’s one of the better starts this week I think. He will continue to get just under half the looks in big scoring games, and he’s a beast. Why not give him a shot if your other back is hurting and playing a great defense? (That goes to you owners of Willie Parker, Jamal Lewis, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs- I think he outscores 3 of the 4 at least)

Domenick Hixon: After struggling last week, I think the Giants get their passing attack going against a Dallas secondary that has been playing better than they are recently. 

Devin Hester: I still like Hester – this list is looking a lot like last week’s group. 

Bryant Johnson: The big receiver is playing a lowly ranked Miami secondary, and he’s been pretty solid over the last four weeks – he’s worth a flier. 

John Carlson: I would say he’s not a sleeper, but look at the numbers, in most leagues he’s not owned. This guy should be starting just about every week. 

New England Patriots: They play the Raiders, and the Raiders are probably starting Andrew Walter. When he throws a couple picks or and then fumbles away a touchdown, who will the Raiders turn to? I doubt the answer will fair much better. 

Papa’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Marc Bulger: Again, Bulger plays one of the lowest rated pass defenses in the league, again I wouldn’t start Marc Bulger unless it was an empty free agent pool without Seneca Wallace, Tyler Thigpen, Chad Pennington, and Jeff Garcia. 

Tim Hightower: He’s basically been what I thought he’d be since taking over for Edgerrin James – and I still don’t think you should start him, especially against this D-front. 

Jamal Lewis: I’m thinking Jamal might get about 16-22 carries for 50-65 yards, and I don’t think he’ll score. He might get a couple receptions with Harrison being out, but I doubt those will amount to much. 

Randy Moss: It was prior to last season that this section was named after Randy Moss – funny how the world turns. Still, I think the Raiders will take this game a little bit personally, and there’s one DB in Oakland that will likely be assigned to hold Randy down. I’m not sure it’s the best move to sit Randy in the playoffs, but I’m going to make that move in my playoff league (but I have Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, and Larry Fitzgerald to start instead).  

My Prediction Early Returns

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Okay, since my nephew blasted a few of my predictions, I just wanted to get some things straight. There’s still a long season ahead of us here, but after 4 measily weeks I think I have some good things going – I’ve rated all 50 predictions on a 1 to 10 scale, 1 being no chance of my prediction coming true, and 10 being a very good chance that it’s going to happen. Here goes nothing. I’ll do the first half of my prediction rundown this week, and the other half next week (if I’m not too old to remember).

  • Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns.(1 It’s not looking good)
  • LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. (4 LenDale is down 55-44 as of Week 4, and this Johnson kid looks good, but there’s still injuries and vultured touchdowns to come, I have a chance in non-ppr leagues)
  • Earnest Graham won’t get 20+ carries in more than 3 games this season – and that bites into his value. (9 Four games and hasn’t exceeded 20 carries yet, getting just 10, 15, and 12 in week’s 1-3)
  • Deion Branch – best fantasy receiver in Seattle (total points). (8 Branch comes back this week and he’s chasing Nate Burleson’s Week 1 total of 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown – I think he’s got a great chance to make me look smart)
  • LeSean McCoy will be a better professional running back than Beanie Wells – and he will be something (draft him in leagues where that’s a part of it). (I still like this one, but can’t really rate it yet)
  • Willis McGahee – 1200+ rushing yards for the Ravens. (3 Has 100 less rushing yards than the guy who started the season #3 on the depth chart, it’s not looking good, but this could turn around in a hurry)
  • Edgerrin James will break the 1000-yard mark once again.
  • My nephew thinks Calvin Johnson will be a Top 15 WR – he’ll be a Top 5 WR – my nephew will edit this article and I thank him for that. (10 Calvin is 5th right now even though he’s only played 3 games because of the teams’ Week 4 bye – I like my chances)
  • Matt Ryan – much better fantasy quarterback than Joe Flacco this season – but neither will bust the Top 20. (7 I still think Ryan is the guy, but Flacco is better than I thought, he’ll be in the Top 25)
  • Chad Pennington will bust the Top 20, and throw at least 20 touchdowns if he plays more than 12 games. (4 He’s in the Top 20, yeah, but he has just 2 touchdowns thus far – the dual prediction is looking less likely than I’d hoped)
  • Jerchio Cotchery – easily outscore Coles in New York. (8 Even after Coles crabbed 8 balls for 105 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 4, Cotchery is still just 3 points back – I still think Jericho ends the season with 40 more fantasy points than Coles)
  • Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7. (1 – nope – Splinter doesn’t give him the rock at all – too bad, sorry about this one)
  • Kurt Warner will get hurt in the first four weeks, allowing Matt Leinart to take the starting job back and keep it for the duration of the season – the entitled little bastard. (1 – nope, Kurt’s still in, and despite 6 turnovers last week, still the guy giving the Cards the best chance to win)
  • DeAngelo Williams gets 66% of the carries in Carolina and rush for 1000+ yards for the first time in his career. (4 Jon Stewart has 45 carries for 197 yards thus far, DeAngelo has 55 carries for 201 yards – looks like a 50-50, and Williams is only on pace for 800 yards this season, it could still happen though, all is not lost)
  • Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end. (9 Keller is 11th thus far and he has just 12 targets thus far – he’s a shoe in)
  • So will Greg Olsen. (7 he’s 27th, but just a touchdown and 30 yards back of a Top 10)
  • Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again. (1 out for the year after one nice week)
  • Steve Slaton will lead the Texans backfield, and will approach 80 receptions. (10 who else told you this? Slaton is 16th overall, the sure fire #1 in Houston, and he has 15 receptions in 16 targets in three games – that’s on pace for 80 receptions and he’s becoming more involved in the passing game. Yhatzee!)
  • Marion Barber – best running back this season in fantasy land. (9 he’s #3 so far, and he only got 7 carries last week, I still think he’s #1, but I need to give some other guys a little credit – we’ll see – Turner’s had some good games too)
  • Brain Westbrook won’t play more than 11 games – as much as I love the guy. (7 who knows, I hope I’m wrong, but Westy is already down a game, and he might miss #2 this weekend, we’ll see)
  • Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back. (3 Fumble problems and an extremely tough run game schedule has me really worried about this pick – he needs to hold onto the ball long enough to get into the easier part of his schedule and then maybe I’ll get close)
  • Frank Gore – top 5 fantasy back. (10 He’s #2 thus far, even in non-ppr leagues – got this one wrapped if he stays relatively healthy – knock, knock)
  • Randy Moss – catches less than 15 touchdowns, but still has a great season – more catches this year. (10,6,1 – kind of three predictions here, it looks like its safe to expect he won’t get 15 touchdowns, I still think he’ll be a good receiving option in the Top 10, but I don’t think that, without Brady, he catches more balls this season)
  • Chad Johnson figures out that the Bengals don’t have a chance by Week 6 – that’s when he opts for season ending surgery – he gets traded in 2009. (8 I like my chances, 0-4 thus far, Palmer on the mend, not a good game for Chad in the books yet)
  • The SeaChickens don’t win the NFC West this year. (6 1-2, behind San Francisco and Arizona, but just one game back and getting healthier – I still like the Cardinals to take this division)
  • Neither do the freaking Niners. (6 2-2 thus far, but I like the Cardinals better)
  • Alright, there’s half of the predictions, some good – some bad – such is the way it goes. I’ll run the rest next week. Good luck in your Week 5 ventures!

    • Three for Thursday

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    1. Somebody in my “most expensive” league just traded Maurice Jones Drew to get the powerful entity known as Antwaan Randel El. Like any other college football fan of the 90’s, I have a certain appreciation for Mr. Randel El that, upon further review, trumps his actual value – so sure, I always see the former Hoosier, the former Steeler, on a fantasy roster. What I don’t see is, in a league where you keep two players, trading a guy as talented as Drew away for a possession receiver that has never been big enough to catch more than a couple touchdown passes. The reasoning behind this whacky trade, you ask: “I didn’t have a third receiver for Week 4.” Oh sweet mother of God. And, “I wasn’t using Jones Drew anyway.” – With Antonio Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Michael Clayton, Donnie Avery, Roscoe Parrish (AR-El 2), and others just playing dominoes on the free agent list, it seems like a ridiculous thing to trade a guy you picked in the first non-keeper round for a receiver that had one decent (not great) week. These kind of trades should be punishable. I see them every year, and they are frustrating. Especially when I don’t get in on them! Damn the man! 

    2. Chris Perry’s value. I love what this kid is doing. He really looks good running the ball in Cincinnati – nobody has done that since Rudi was healthy. Perry has speed, vision, and he can catch passes. He hasn’t really played in three years, so you have to believe that he can only get better from here, plus he hasn’t been playing the easiest of defenses either (Baltimore, New York Giants, Tennessee). He plays Dallas next week, then Pittsburgh two weeks after that, but he won’t have a three game schedule tougher than the one he started the season with. If you can get Perry for cheap, and could use some running back help, go for the roses, sir. If he stays healthy, he’ll be a surprise Top 15 running back this season. That’s starter material. 

    3. Old Quarterback Show: What do Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Gus Frerotte, Jake Delhomme, Kerry Collins, Damon Huard, and Brian Griese have in common? Besides the fact that every one of their old asses is starting in Week 4, they are all very close to being grandpas. Okay, maybe not Grandpas, but closer to 40 than 30 usually isn’t the best thing in this league. But this is why they are all semi-successful at the very least, and starting over younger talents. Unlike the young quarterbacks that enter the league nowadays, these guys all got a chance to learn the game over time. They weren’t rushed into anything, hell, some didn’t even start their pro-careers in the National Football League. But they were taught the right way. They weren’t thrown into a sack-happy-frenzy like David Carr, and they weren’t dumbed down right off the bat like Kyle Boller, Tarvaris Jackson, or Matt Leinart. These guys learned their respective offenses, put in work on the sidelines, saw how it was supposed to be done, and now they’ve been doing it for a long, long time. Gotta love it.

    Ten for Tuesday: Week 3

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    1. Eddie Royal is still for real. In the one league I didn’t draft Royal in, I just traded for him. Ha. After what Brandon Marshall did to the Chargers I have a feeling more coverage is headed his way. The fact that Royal got the game tying touchdown and the game winning two point conversion thrown his way is just an example of Splinter’s trust in his young ninja turtle – grab him if you can.

    2. Darren McFadden is a stud – weird. For those of you that thought D-Mac was going to fall on his face and struggle in his first year running the ball in the NFL game – you are silly rabbits. Anyone can see that this kid has all the running ability and vision in the world. He’s a beast – let that be known.

    3. Jonathan Stewart is going to be the man. Yes, DeAngelo Williams will get his carries, but I’m willing to bet that J-Stew finishes the years with more carries, more touchdowns, a better ypc average, and more catches out of the back-field. Both will be an option, which is why either one is a tough start, but if you have both and have to choose one, I’m going with the rookie.

    4. Jay Cutler is a top 5 fantasy quarterback – and maybe even more efficient on the football field. Right now, mine go like this for the rest of the season – Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Donavan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner – yes, I may be going out on a bit of a limb here, but I like three ahead of Peyton and one just behind, and Warner might push Manning for his spot.

    5. Randy Moss: Now is as good a time as ever to grab the tall receiver. He didn’t do dick last week, and people were already questioning his chances with Super Tom off the field for the season. Let me tell you this – Randy is still a top 5 receiver, and anybody that thinks otherwise doesn’t deserve to have him on their team. So go for the jugular and snipe him away for something way under value – like Santana Moss (if you can). I love me some Randy touchdowns.

    6. Marion Barber is a beast. I wouldn’t be stunned if Barber puts up 20 touchdowns this year, hell, I expect that much. Barber is a beast and that Cowboy offense is sadistically good. Barber is a touchdown machine and nobody runs tougher. If you didn’t listen to my predictions and grab Barber early, you are probably too late, but if someone offers him to you, take it and run with it.

    7. Unless it’s LT. That’s right, don’t trade LT. He’s still going to go off, probably as early as the Jets. New York has played decent against the run in their first two games, but that won’t last. If LT plays, and I expect he will, I’m predicting 150 yards and a couple touchdowns. After two down weeks in a row, and sounds of a toe injury, it might be a good time to try and plunder superman from his unsuspecting owner. Make it happen.

    8. 150, 140, 3 scores: Kurt Warner knows who to throw the ball to apparently. Larry Fitz collected the most yardage from his 6 grabs, while Boldin finished just behind him with 140 yards – but those three scores helped fantasy owners win all over this week. Both receiving options are studs, and both will have brilliant seasons if they stay healthy. If you were smart enough to draft Boldin despite all the “trade me” talk and pre-season hysteria, then you are looking brilliant now. Doesn’t it feel good?

    9. J.T. O’Sullivan to the rescue: And after week 1 everyone dropped this guy figuring “no way is he going to put up Mike Martz numbers,” c’mon guys – that’s why you never practice premature edropulation. O’Sullivan will be putting the ball up a lot this year, and many of his passes will be to a running back in Frank Gore that has all the ability to make a lot out of a little. Feel free to pick him up if he’s available. Against sloppy secondaries, which there are a lot of in the NFC, J.T. will be a solid option all year long – same for Bryant Johnson for that matter. After an injury plagued pre-season, Johnson looks like a big fast Martz #1 – can’t hate on that.

    10: Maybe the Patriots aren’t that bad after-all. Check out last week’s stuff – this team is still legit, and Matt Cassell will only get better as the season goes on. Remember, this last week was his first start since high-school… Take that Matt Leinart!!!

    NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 2

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    Two weeks, two winners. That’s right, for the second straight week I picked every game the NFL had to offer and came out on top of the books. A little luck, a lot of plusses and minuses to consider, and here I am, 8 games over .500 after two weeks. My first week, 10-6, my second week, 9-5-1. That puts me at 19-11-1. This is how Week 2 went wild.

    Oakland Raiders (+4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: (WINNER) “I think the Raiders will go back to the drawing board and see that running the ball will work for them.” Fargas got hurt, but he was off to a nice start before he went out. McFadden rushed for 160 yards and Michael Bush toted the rock for 90 yards himself. Needless to say, the Raiders relied on the run and it carried them to an easy victory over the Chiefs. I WIN!

    Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3): (PUSH) Not much to say here, it was a tough game to cap and this is why. The Panthers aren’t a great home team, they don’t play well when favored, but the Bears are just the Bears, and not much to be worried about. It came down to the wire, but Jonathan Stewart’s touchdown put the Panther’s up 3 to stay and I pushed.

    New Orleans Saints (+1) @ Washington Redskins: (LOSS) Up 24-15 going into the 4th quarter, the Saints were looking like a nice selection right around a pick’em. But the Redskins fought hard at home, and Jim Zorn got his first victory of the season. New Orleans was back to running the ball very poorly and Washington threw all over the Saints’ secondary as Jason Campbell put up over 300 yards through the air. The Redskins scored 14 unanswered in the 4th and took home the win.

    Indianapolis Colts (pk) @ Minnesota Vikings: (WINNER) “I like the Vikings to exploit the Colts run defense, but this game comes down to the wire and Peyton Manning, with one regular season game under his belt, can do enough against a suspect Viking pass defense to take this game on the road.” As it was Adrian Peterson went off for 160 rushing yards but it wasn’t enough as Peyton lead his squad down the field to win this one late. Peyton still has his rust, and it might not be warn off by next Sunday, but he had enough to make my prediction ring true, 300+ yards for the dumpy faced Colt QB.

    New York Giants (-8) @ St. Louis Rams: (WINNER) The Giants seemingly did anything they wanted to the Rams, and this wasn’t a close contest at all. St. Louis looks really bad, and I have to believe that Scott Linnehan’s future is starting to look grim in St. Louis. Eli followed the lead of his fellow poo-faced brother and really tossed the ball around the Rams secondary, putting up 40+ points on the Rams to show what the Eagles did wasn’t a fluke.

    Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: (WINNER) “without three of their starting offensive linemen, the Jaguars just don’t seem like a good favorite to bet on. I think the Jags will be better against the Bills than the Hawks were, but Buffalo’s physical play is a nice match-up for a physical Jags team. There aren’t many teams that will try to out-tough the Jaguars, and the Bills might just do that in Week 2. Take the points in this battle.” This one was close, and even with a poor offensive effort the Jags were leading headed down to the final minutes. But, Trent Edwards showed what he can do and orchestrated a nice game winning touchdown drive to end this thing. This was a solid bet.

    Atlanta Falcons (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) I still think I capped this game right. The Bucs were definitely out to make Matt Ryan beat them, and he couldn’t do anything close to that. Tampa stacked their line against the run and shut down Week 1’s rushing leader, Michael Turner. Earnest Graham looked legit again in less than 20 carries of action, and the Brian Griese led Bucs iced the Falcons and just wouldn’t allow touchdowns. Anyway, I’ll take the loss here.

    San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WINNER) What can I say, when it rains, it floods the Hawks, that’s for sure. As if the fact that they were starting Logan Payne at receiver wasn’t bad enough, the Hawks lost Payne to a season ending knee injury in the first quarter. Ridiculous. I read somewhere, “Was Brett Favre on the cover of Madden ’09 or was it the Seahawks receiving corps?” Good accurate question there. Seattle still had a chance late, but really, they looked bad throughout this contest. THe only guys that looked good were Julius Jones and John Carlson. Either way, the 49ers won and my +220 bet I made felt really good when that game winning field goal went through the uprights. Your +9 looked brilliant throughout I’m sure.

    Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-6): (WINNER) “I expect Kurt Warner to air it out a little more against a suspect Dolphins secondary, as his two receivers look to have big games. The Cardinals are the best team in the NFC West, and while that doesn’t say much, it does mean they can handle the Dolphins with ease.” Warner was 19/24 for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bolding caught 6 balls for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald caught 6 balls for 153 yards. Seems like I took care of this game before it happened. Gotta love that.

    Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-4): No game this week – will be played on November 9th.

    Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: (LOSS) The Steelers looked like they dominated this game, but they never scored again after Hines Ward’s touchdown, and 10 was enough to keep the Browns winless to start the season. Ben’s shoulder hurt a bit and it showed, as the Steelers just did their best to run out the clock. I really feel like I got a raw deal here, but since I did pretty well this week I’ll just shrug it off.

    Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) “Come on, this seems like an insulting line. This is definitely one of my picks of the week.” This game was easy to pick, but then the Lions fought back, but they then decided to be the Lions again and lose by a 48-25 margin. Brilliant. This was basically free money, and I hope you cashed in.

    Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:  (WINNER) “Free Money – even with Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans and the Bengals are on a different level, same league, but different level. For example, the Titans have 11 starting defensive players that can really tackle. The Bengals have one, and he’s a rookie. The Titans have a solid offensive attack despite quarterback trouble -the Bengals have a talented quarterback with previous success that looks lost because of how bad his offense is. Things are going bad in Cinci, and a Titan beat down isn’t going to make them feel any better.” Uh, yeah. When I said “free money” i meant “free money”.

    San Diego Chargers (pk) @ Denver Broncos: (LOSS) The Chargers didn’t deserve to win this game despite the terrible call that handed the Broncos a victory late. That may sound weird, but the Broncos dominated this contest, and if it weren’t for some amazing plays down the stretch the Chargers wouldn’t have been close. Shanny’s balls to go for it to win the game… priceless. I lose this one, but it was as close as it gets, no doubt about that.

    New England Patriots (+2.5) @ New York Jets: (WINNER) “At least there was something good out of Tom Brady going down with an injury – we get this spread to play with. I’ll take the Patriots as a dog against the Jets and laugh it all the way to the bank.” I am still giggling a bit, as the Patriots made Brett Favre’s addition look like a meaningless free agent signing. That’s right folks, even without our favorite quarterback, the Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league. Viva la free money!

    Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): (LOSS)  Wow. What a game. The Eagles held the lead after a couple Cowboy mistakes early, but after McNabb put the ball on the turf in the 4th quarter, the Cowboys took the lead for good. A late drive couldn’t cut it for the Eagles, but they did cover, making me a loser for the 5th time this week. Still, after 15 games I was 9-5-1, not too shabby.

    theRUNDOWN: Week 1

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    2008’s Week 1 is upon us. Thursday Night’s contest pitting the Giants against their in-conference rival Redskins makes for good TV, but does that match-up make for good fantasy fun? Hard to tell. I have a sleeper or two from that group, but as far as fantasy studs, I’ll stay away. These are my favorite players to start, some sleepers, and some guys to avoid on Sunday – This is theRUNDOWN for Week 1 – write this down!

    QB: Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco: Last time Kurt played the Niners he approached 500 passing yards. He didn’t get it, but he surely sniffed it. I don’t think he’ll do that kind of colossus damage, but he should be one of the best starting options in Week 1. I’ll take him as my quarterbacking bell-cow.

    RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Carolina: I have to take LT because he’s scored on opening day in every single season but one in his NFL career. That’s something right? He doesn’t have the best match-up ever, but he’s still going to show the Panthers a thing or two.

    RB: Marion Barber vs. Cleveland: I know the Browns got much better defensively, but I just have a feeling. This is wear I put guys down that I have feelings about.

    WR: Randy Moss vs. Kansas City: Because why not? Moss is one of the best receivers in the game and he’s going to KC where nobody on the roster can guard him. Seems like a no-brainer.

    WR: Terrell Owens vs. Cleveland: Yes, I will start TO and Randy and smile the whole time. Cleveland’s secondary doesn’t stand much of a chance against the Cowboys passing attack – TO is a big reason why. The only guy I’d consider instead of Owens is Calvin Johnson, but I figured I’d start with Randy and TO and go from there.

    TE: Tony Scheffler vs. Oakland: Without Brandon Marshall I just have to believe Scheffler gets about 10 targets on Monday Night. That’s good enough for me to give him the nod.

    K: Josh Brown vs. Philadelphia: Brown struggled in the pre-season, making me wonder if Seattle can see the future. I doubt it though, why would they have resigned Shaunna Alexander if they could see the future? Its an ongoing joke that I can’t pick good kicking options- we’ll see if that continues through Week 1.

    D: Patriots vs. Kansas City: I just feel like the Patriots are pretty good and the KC offense is horrendous. Is that wrong?

    LUCKY’S Week 1 SLEEPERS

    Matt Schaub: I think Warner could be a bit of a sleeper, but since I took him as my top option, he really doesn’t work here. In that case I’ll roll with Matt Schaub. I think he can do his part to torch the Steelers defense despite most people predicting a Pittsburgh beat down.

    Aaron Rodgers: You bet – this kid is going to be good. Why not start in Week 1 against a suspect secondary?

    Chris Johnson: He needs to make one guy miss and then run away from everyone else. I think CJ will be a lot like Maurice Jones Drew in MJD’s rookie run. Even against Jax, I like CJ as a sleeper.

    Maurice Morris: It seems like a lot of people don’t realize it, but Morris is the starter in Seattle. They go up against a Bills team that doesn’t do many things great defensively. I am willing to bet that Morris is a double digit fantasy scorer this Sunday.

    Matt Forte: This rookie goes up against the Colts. That’s what I’m saying. He’s starter worthy.

    Nate Burleson: He’s the #1 target in Seattle and while that would normally give him the opposing defense’s best corner back, Buffalo really doesn’t have one of those. He’s a nice option on Sunday.

    Roddy White: After a great ’07 season Roddy seemed to fall down in drafts for some reason. I wonder if it’s because Atlanta’s QB play last year was good and this year they have a rookie? Hmmm… Nope, they just cut the guy that started most of ’07. I like Roddy no matter who is throwing him the ball.

    Robert Meachem: There’s a chance Meachem is the deep threat right off the bat in New Orleans. With Tampa giving Colston, Shockey, and Bush lots of attention I have a feeling Meachem could get loose for a couple big plays.

    Zach Miller: The Raiders will have to throw the ball to someone on Monday against Denver. Miller won’t be getting blanketed by Champ Bailey or Dre Bly. So yeah, I think he’s a top 12 starting option this weekend.

    Bengals: One would hate to ever have to start the Bengals week in and week out, but they should make some plays against the Ravens sputtering offense. (Yes, they will sputter early). There are worse defenses out there, and the Bengals have the playmakers to score a touchdown or two.

    LUCKY’S Week 1 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

    Drew Brees: The proof is there, this high scorer rarely does a lot of damage against the Bucs – if you have a decent back-up option, start him instead.

    Ryan Grant and Adrian Peterson: I don’t think either of these defensive lines will allow a 100 yard rusher in Week 1 – even though AP and Grant are beasts, this isn’t a good match-up for either of them.

    Bernard Berrien: I like BB’s chances to have a great season, but he just seems to get pushed around by the physical corners in Green Bay. We’ll see, but there’s a good chance that continues.

    Willie Parker: I like me some Fast Willie Parker, but I think Houston is much improved up front, and they will make Pittsburgh beat them through the air.

    It looks like I’ll have a nice little team on my bench this week.

    2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 15

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    This Week’s Top Team: The search for 140…. I was sooo close last week, and AP pulled a 0… Lets see if I can’t get it done.

    QB: Kurt Warner vs. New Orleans: How about the idea that the Saints would be the worst rated defense in the league if they didn’t play 6 games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Carolina – you bet. The saints give up points like they’re free, and Kurt will dominate the world on Sunday.

    RB: Joseph Addai vs. Oakland: Oakland’s offensive line is terrible and you can bet Addai will get the rock plenty with Indy being careful for the playoffs. I don’t know how many looks he’ll get in the 2nd half, as I imagine this game won’t be too close for too long, but I’d imagine 3 quarters of work will be just what I was looking for in terms of fantasy production.

    RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Detroit: I have to ride LT’s hot streak out. He’s the best player in the league, and he’s trying to get his team going into the playoffs. This is a closer for them, and Detroit hasn’t been stellar at stopping anyone lately.

    WR: Terrell Owens vs. Philadelphia: I know the Eagles will be hell bent on doing up TO after Owens torched them for a billion yards last time these two met up, but I just don’t think you can stop TO when he’s focused, and with all the Keyshawn talk, the Bill Parcells chatter, and the fact that he’s playing Philly this week – huge stuff, son.

    WR: Greg Jennings vs. St. Louis: Jennings is in a tough situation with a platoon, Brett throw to everyone, scheme – but I like his chances against a mediocre Rams secondary in a game that the Packers really want to win. Jennings is tough, and knows how to make touchdowns happen.

    TE: Antonio Gates vs. Tennessee: I have to love Gates against he Lions, even with Phillip powder-puffing him the ball. He’s always open this guy, even with a strained groin.

    K: Phil Dawson vs. Buffalo: He’ll have a bad day, because I picked him, but the question is, can I jinx the Browns into a home loss to the Bills?

    D: Vikings vs. Chicago: The Bears have gotten worse and worse against the run, and they play the best rushing team in the NFL this Monday Night. Chicago just lost two more defensive lineman to the IR, but their offense is even more questionable. They can’t really run, and now Kyle Orton is under center – the 3rd option in Chicago for God’s sake. What does that tell you?

    LUCKY’S Week 15 SLEEPERS

    Trent Edwards: Trent is accurate, the Browns secondary is wide open – this should be a second great fantasy week in a row for the young Buffalo Bill.

    Kenton Keith: This pick is expecting that the Colts tear down the Raiders pretty easily. If that is the case, Keith will get 12-18 carries, and that means big yardage against a very bad Raiders defensive front.

    Frank Gore: Against the Bengals, I think Gore will get over the 100 yard plateau. He’s a very good back, he’s tough, and the Bengals don’t tackle well. Tough start for the young 49er, but he’ll be solid in this one.

    Shaunna Alexander: I hate to do it, but I’m actually expecting a decent day out of the former touchdown machine. 80 yards and a touchdown, is that asking too much? We’ll see.

    Lee Evans: I’ve always thought the world of this kid, the Bills will have to put the ball in the end zone to stick with the Browns, and Cleveland’s secondary plays like they’re in the pro-bowl every week – I like this match-up.

    Roddy White: If someone’s collecting catches, yards, and touchdowns in a blowout of the Falcons, it will be White. If someone is responsible for getting the Falcons a win, it will be this talented receiver. Good sleeper this week.

    Tony Scheffler: I just really like this kid in Denver – he could have a big game against the Texans on Thursday.

    Anthony Gonzalez: I’m sure the Colt is a popular pick this week after having a big day last week – but the key is, even when Peyton and the rest of the big names go out, Gonzo will still get his work. I like that, and I think he’ll have another nice day.

    Buccaneers: The Falcons put up big points last week against New Orleans, but the Saints are terrible defensively. This disciplined Buc secondary will give the Falcons problems.

    LUCKY’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

    Eli Manning: He’s still bad.

    Samkon Gado: He may be starting for the Dolphins, but the Ravens are going to eat him alive.

    Laveranues Coles: Not this week, not against this motivated Patriots team.

    Todd Heap: He’s going to play! I don’t buy that for a minute. Maybe for 1 quarter until he gets hurt. I wouldn’t start him with my playoff life on the line.