Tag Archives: Fantasy Football Playoffs

Fantasy Focus: Week 15 Fantasy Football Preview

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This is the 2nd Week of Fantasy Playoffs in some leagues, the first in others, regardless, who to play is a big deal. Last week Josh finished atop the charts for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks, or something like that, and his picks have been on fire lately. I finished second, as some tough defensive picks and a goose egg from quarterbacks had the poo-fan pointed in my direction. Ryan and Papa are both trying to pick up some winners as the last few weeks wrap up, and you better believe I’ll be trying to hold onto the overall title. Doing work. This week I have some solid sleepers ready to wake up and give you a playoff win if you need some help, as I’ve placed an extra five guys in my “super sleeper” realm – guys that are waiver wire fodder right now, ready to spring into starter action for draft pick duds. It’s playoffs, nobody’s feelings will be hurt, just play the best guys out there! Here goes many things….

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Wes Welker – Defenses can focus in on Randy, that’s fine, but Wes had 12 catches against Buffalo earlier this year, he will have a teen count this week.
2. Ray Rice –  I have to stick with Ray Rice, the Bears can’t keep up with the main man in Baltimore.
3. Adrian Peterson – Carolina’s pass D is actually decent, their run D, well, you’ll see.
4. Drew Brees – You know Drew has that fire wanting a win over Dallas, and you know he’s going to make that secondary cry.
5. Chris Johnson – I will not take CJ off this list, he’s a must play, at the top of the world right now.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson – Despite last week’s lockdown on Arizona, the 49ers secondary has some holes, DeSean will find them.
2. Jamal Charles – The kid is lightening quick, and given 20 touches, he’s as good as gold in this match-up.
3. Thomas Jones – I like Thomas a lot again, his match-up is just too good, and he’ll get his carries.
4. Cedric Benson –The Chargers can give up some yards on the ground, and I feel a 120+ yard day coming for Benson.
5. Brandon Jacobs – I like his style, and his punishing runs look to be back. Albert might be out, look for 18-20 carries and yards to match.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –Again, he’s the best back in Seattle, again, he’ll have the most fantasy points amongst them, and Tampa, nice match-up.
2. Quentin Ganther – The Giants D front doesn’t scare me like they used to, the Redskins O scares me more than ever. Deal.
3. Vince Young– I like him again, if he’s still out there, he’s a nice spot start for a 2nd straight week.
4. Laurence Maroney– LM has been consistent, at the very least, for the Patriots – I think he runs a lot again in Week 15.
5. Alex Smith– The thought of the Eagles secondary says no, but don’t get tricked, if you don’t have a top guy, need a starter, Smith is a solid play.
6. Steve Breaston – He might be on the Waivers after a few pooformances, but Larry Fitz might be out, and the match-up is good, I like starting Ta-Tas this week.

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Brady Quinn – Everyone is saying no, the Chiefs D beat up the Bills passing attack last week, and Brady threw for under 100 yards – so what, I like the match-up. If you need him, don’t feel like you’re going to die. At least double digit fantasy points from Quinn.
2. Chris Jennings – He might not be on the waiver, but I picked him up in a couple leagues, so he’s out there in most. He plays the Chiefs D and looks like a solid option if you have nothing else.
3. Maurice Morris – He could very well be in for starter carries, and some grabs out of the backfield as well, you could do worse than MoMo.
4. Devin Aromashodu – Let me say this, Jay Cutler has been lobbying for him getting more playing time for weeks, he finally gets it and puts up 21 fantasy points. Like it.
5. Greg Camarillo – Last week’s performance isn’t that crazy, and while I don’t see 100 yards, 5+ catches and 50+ yards seems likely against the Titans.
6. Deon Butler – Call me crazy, and this would be a tough start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it worked out. Burleson is out, and while Branch is #3, Butler is the big play guy left – I think he has a couple this week and has his best fantasy week of the year.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Hines Ward– Great player, struggling team, tough D, tough start in my opinion.
2. Mario Manningham– After a great start, MM is back-up duty, and against one of the best secondaries in the league, not a good start.
3. Matt Forte – Weird, Matt’s here again, I think he’ll do more blocking than running against the Ravens.
4. LeSean McCoy –I like the rookie a lot, I just think the Niners shut him down, and the Eagles find quicker ways to gain yardage.
5. Kyle Orton– I like the Broncos to win, yes, but pass a lot? no. Orton might get close to 200 yards, but I doubt he gets over that mark. More than a touchdown through the air? No – sit him.

***Nate Burleson is out. Turner is still a bit risky. Don’t start JaMarcus Russell unless you are throwing your playoff game, and if you are starting Charlie “Brown” Frye, I’m sorry for your mixed luck, nothing like getting to the playoffs and having to start a peanuts character***

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Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Q&A NFL Week 14

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Alright, I answered lots of fantasy football questions last week, but most of them were big roster questions, or things that I’ve answered recently. So I didn’t have much to share, and I just left last week’s column out. Sorry if you were looking for it. Remember, you can always feel free to write in. Send your questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here to answer and give you prompt advice. I made the fantasy playoffs in 3 of my 5 leagues, and was the highest scoring and best record in the two I missed. I hate that. Not as much as I hate ingrown toe nails, banana pudding, or accidentally trying to crack one of those rock-salt things in packs of sunflower seeds, but I still hate it. OH nuts, I’ll get on with it, here’s this week’s questions and answers…

David writes in asking, “Who should I start Chris Brown,Lynch or Sammy Morris? My other back is Rice. I need you to peek into your crystal ball and help me out.”

Into the playoffs you go!!! I am starting Lynch with my running back question marks. If Quentin Ganther, the new starting RB for the Redskins, is available, you might want to give him a look – he has a good match-up and has looked good with the chances he’s gotten. I just think Lynch ran hard and played solid football last week, and he could get plenty of looks to be useful against a bad Chiefs defense. Chris Brown is the other guy I would consider, but the Hawks aren’t as bad against the run as they seem – but he is a goal line back – so there’s always that TD possibly in the cards, and he should get plenty of carries with Slaton out. Tough call, but I’m going for the best match-up, and I think Lynch draws that.

Papa Bear says, “This is Papa Bear seeking Papa Weimer’s sage advice, below I’ve listed my roster, so anything you can predict, tell me, insist upon, etc, would be a great help. Thanks, as always!”

QB – P Manning and A Smith: RB – Forte, Forsett, T Jones, and Cartwright  Available on waivers: – Lynch, J Jones, F Jones, and McAghee: WR – Marshall, Jennings, Bess, Hester, J Morgan  Waivers: Avant, M Jenkins, Thomas, Massaquoi: TE – V Davis: K- Longwell: DEF- Bengals  Waivers: Chargers, 49 ers, Cardinals, Skins, Bills.

I don’t like Julius Jones all that much anymore, but I think he’s a better option than Cartwright – I guess in a PPR league Cartwright holds a little more value than a non-ppr league. But Seattle plays Houston and Tampa Bay over the next two weeks, not great run defenses by any means, and he might be3 an option for you in a pinch. Cartwright, unless you’re going to start him this week, plays the Giants and Cowboys in week’s 15 and 16, and those d’s pose tough match-ups. JJ would be the best RB to pick up, not because he’s great, but because stupid Jim Mora thinks he’s still the starter… Clown, but he’s got a job.

I think Marshall and Jennings are sure thing starters, and actually like Josh Morgan as your next best guy. Bess and Hester have both been decent, but I think the Dolphins run a lot versus the Jags, and I’m not sure Bess is a safe guy to play. I think Morgan will get his looks, especially in the Niners pass happy offense on Monday Night Football. Yeah, gross, I know, the Niners are passing 3 of every 4 downs, but it is what it is, 6-7 catches and 80 yards wouldn’t stun me.

Thomas Jones is a great start this week, then there are question marks. Matt Forte seems like a tough guy to start considering his bad numbers and that aggressive and physical Packers D – and I really like Justin Forsett, and it looks like he’ll still get some looks, maybe even more next week based on his play last week despite his injury. Cartwright has a decent match-up with the Raiders hosting the Skins, but I don’t know, it’s tough to feel comfortable with Roc in the line-up. Tough call, for sure, I think I’d go with Forsett. I’m tired of waiting for Forte to be good again.

Defensively I’d either go with the Redskins at Raiders – just seems like that defensive secondary could give the Raiders fits, or I’d stick with the Bengals – Cincinnati has been good all year, even against good teams, and I think they’re a better option than the other defenses you listed, besides maybe the Redskins.

Peyton doesn’t have a great match-up, and while Alex Smith has a decent go against the Cardinals, I think I’d have to stick with Manning. It’s tough to sit the guy that got you where you are, right, I did the same thing with Tom Brady a couple years ago and lost because of it, but I would have felt terrible had I sat Tom to play a different guy, and lost because of it. Tough call, but Manning should be your choice in possibly the last week he plays.

Good luck, fantasy playoffs are all about it!

Fantasy Focus: NFL Fantasy Football Week 14 Projections

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Well, the fantasy playoffs are here, and never is there a time more important to get the rankings right. I’ve had a solid run with my starts and such, but I haven’t been winning too many of these in-house contests of late. I’m looking to turn that around, and I’ve used a lot of match-up advantage, high touch situations for my rankings and picks this week. Here’s the fantasy focus for Week 14’s NFL Action.

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Drew Brees – Drew should have a great day against Atlanta’s suspect pass defense.
2. Ray Rice – Ray and the Ravens really struggled last week, but that’s why I love him to have a big week.
3. Sidney Rice – I think Favre goes back to the guy he’s most comfortable with after a tough week.
4. Ben Roethlisberger – Ben threw for 400+ yards last time they Steelers saw the Browns… again?
5. Chris Johnson – Until he does something other than score easy fantasy points, I’ll try to keep him here.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Terrell Owens – People might lay off him after a down week, but everyone struggles against Revis.
2. Mike Sims-Walker – 5 of his 6 home games have been double digit fantasy production.
3. Thomas Jones – I think the Jets will run 45 times this week – Thomas will get about 25 of those.
4. Ricky Williams –The Jaguars are up and down, against the Dolphins rushing attack, I think down.
5. Percy Harvin –What can I say, I think the Vikigns throw more than they pass against Cincinnati.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett –He’s still the best back in Seattle, and despite getting 1/3 the touches, he produced last week.
2. Michael Crabtree – Could be a big week for Crabtree, he’s been getting the targets, he’ll cash in soon.
3. Vince Young– He’s rated as the 25th QB in ESPN this week, I think he cuts that in half. At least.
4. Jamal Charles– He draws Buffalo this week, and he’s been solid, good combo start there.
5. Daunte Culpepper– The Ravens secondary isn’t awesome, and I’ll take a chance that Duante can still wing it with the best of them – go deep Calvin!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Matt Forte– Bad match-up against the Pack, in Week 1, the Pack weren’t quite figured out yet, and they still held Forte to 55 yards on 25 carries.
2. Steve Smith– Matt Moore isn’t better than Jake Delhomme, I can’t believe it. Sit him against the Pats.
3. Frank Gore – It’s going to kill me, but Mike Singletary’s offense has no identity – Gore gets no looks.
4. Eli Manning –I think Eli will struggle against the Eagles, every since Plax went bang, he’s struggled.
5. T.J. Houshmanzadeh– The Hawks need to throw this guy the ball, but they don’t do things right…

***You’re taking a chance on DeSean Jackson, Michael Turner, and DeAngelo Williams, but from what I hear, the first and the last are very likely, and Turner might practice Thursday. ***

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Ask Papa Weimer: Week 17

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Well, I will randomly post up questions with answers as the year moves forward, but this is my last of my seasonal Ask Me questions and answers. I’m always available via e-mail, for questions and advice, so feel free to send in at your will. I got a ton of questions from David this week in an email, and all were solid, so I just printed his one question and my long answers… Hope this helps!

“I want to thank you for all the advice I used and all the advice that I failed to use and I should have used. It enabled me to win my teacher’s league and finish 2nd in my big money league by .4 of a point. It looks like I will be able to play for a few more seasons. Now I need some advice for the playoffs. 1a-I would like you to list the 2 best teams in each conference and 1b-who you think will be in the Superbowl. 2-If you had a chance to draft a team for the playoffs what top 3 QBs would you go after,which 6RBs,and 6 WRs would you target? 3-Are there any players that you think will play in 3 games? 4-What are the 3 best Def to target? I appreciate all the help that you have given me. Also, 5- I am in a keeper league where I can spend $160. I can keep 3 players. Here is my list. Which 3 would you keep and why?

Andre Johnson $25
Ryan Grant $20
Chris Johnson $13
Eddie Royal $6
Jay Cutler $12

6- Finally, are there any RBs or WRs that could have a break out year that will be flying under the radar for next season? What about QBs that could have great seasons? Are you in any playoff leagues?

I would like to say you’re welcome for the advice, and sorry for the poor advice that I gave that might have stopped you from getting #1 in both leagues, but 1 and 2 is pretty solid. I’m in a couple playoff leagues, one in which you just pick the best starting lineup every week (I’m defending Champ there), and one where you pick 25 guys, any 25 you want, and you make a starting lineup every week depending on who gets eliminated from your roster every week. Now for the answers to your questions (but remember, this might all be a little easier if I knew exactly who was going to the playoffs)…

1a. Top Two Teams in Each Conference:
NFC- NY Giants, Carolina Panthers – both rely on the run game, and have solid defenses – that usually means playoff success.
AFC- Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans – I think I’d rank the Titans higher because they run the ball better, but if Big Ben gets his stuff together, and he usually does come playoff time, the Steelers will be tough to beat.
Sorry there’s no flier crazy pick here, but I truly think these top 4 are the top 4, so I have to go that way.

1b. Super Bowl match-up: Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans: Tough one for me. I think the Giants have a chance to get upset. They have some holes, that’s for sure, and they don’t play their best against the rest of the NFC East. If Dallas or Philadelphia somehow get in, and the Giants play one of them in New York in Round 2 of the playoffs, the Giants might get upset. If Carolina plays all their games at home, I think they have a great shot to see the Super Bowl. But really, the NFC is a tough one. AFC too, it’s either the Titans or the Steelers for me, and both have a great shot.

2. Playoff Rankings
QB- Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo or Eli Manning, Peyton Manning…. UGH (I hate the quarterbacks in this one, i have to be honest, I think Ben might be in the longest, and he has a chance to go all the way, and he’s solid so he gets the nod over Kerry Collins and Jake Delhomme, neither of those guys are that good fantasywise. Tony and Peyton both have a chance to play multiple games, if Dallas gets in, they could easily play 3, and Manning will match up against one of the AFC East teams or the AFC West winner, neither of those teams are great, and he has a good match-up in Week 1, plus they can’t run so he’ll be throwing. Romo (if Dallas gets in) will likely play Arizona or whoever wins the North (Chicago or Minnesota) – all are great throwing match-ups, and Dallas is likely better than any of those teams. But this is tough, I might pick four just to make sure.

RB- Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, (AP or Forte – whoever gets in), Marion Barber (I would almost stay exclusively in the NFC, because whomever wins in the AFC wild card round will have to face Tennessee and or Pittsburgh – don’t sign me up for that RB match-up. Pittsburgh’s RB situation is cloudy to say the least, and Tennessee probably has a good match-up in Week 2 of the playoffs, with Chris Johnson being a good match-up against a wild card winner. But that might leave you hanging if the Titans don’t make the Super Bowl. Tough choices.

WR- Steve Smith, TO (if Dallas gets in), Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss (if), Hines Ward, Wes Welker (if) – if the Patriots don’t get in, or if Dallas doesn’t get in, you need three more – Roddy White, Domenick Hixon, Vincent Jackson – if Vince doesn’t get in, maybe take a shot on Arizona and grab Boldin or Fitz, I just don’t see that team winning in the playoffs, but you never know. I didn’t think much of the Giants last year either – how’d that work out for me?

3. I think Dallas, Indy, Atlanta, New England, – and the 4 top seeds all have a chance to play 3 games…

4. I would target only defenses from the AFC, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and maybe Baltimore (if they get in) – that way you’ll have the best shot at starting a D every week, and all those defenses are tough. The only D I’d grab from the NFC is the Giants, and remember, repeating as Super Bowl Champs is really hard to do. If Baltimore doesn’t get in, and you need one Week 1 playoff defense, the winner of the NFC North or the Cowboys might be a decent bet. If Baltimore gets in, I’d surely take the 3 top Ds that I listed.

But all of this depends on how you’re doing this league. If this is a draft, and you are snaking and picking up players, things might be different. The way I do playoff leagues is that you get 25 players of your choice, and every week you start a lineup of QB, RB, Flex, WR, WR, TE, K, D… I kind of remember you maybe doing a draft. If that’s the case, I think the Falcons have a nice shot at winning Week 1 in the playoffs, and a solid shot at Week 2 as well. Roddy, Turner – two solid options.

5. Keeper League Guys:
I would keep Chris Johnson for sure – he’ll never be $13 ever again, kid is only going to get better.
I would probably keep Andre Johnson too – I think the Texans break out next year, and this guy is probably the best young receiving talent in the league. And I also think $25 is a nice price for a top receiver – who were the expensive receivers this year? What did they cost?

Eddie Royal for $6 seems like a steal, but it seems like auction drafts always find you cheap receivers somewhere, is that true? I haven’t done one before, had a couple started, but never got the league all the way through…

If it’s not a PPR league, I think Ryan Grant is a solid buy. He doesn’t have much hype though, and it’s likely that you can get him for around this price next season – so maybe you’d want to go for Cutler…

What did the top 5 QBs go for this season? He’ll definitely be a Top 5 guy next year. Just think about value, I think Jay, Eddie, Chris, and Andre all have climbing value. Grant is about the same, maybe down a bit – you want to keep your best value. But you also want to look at RB options moving forward, if Grant is going to be one of the best RBs left on the board, he might be a keeper option. Not a PPR is it? If it is a PPR league, I think I’d shy away from Ryan.

6: Some guys that have either seen a huge drop in Value, or aren’t respected as much as they should be, that could be goodies next season…

Kevin Smith (I see a lot of talent there), Pierre Thomas (he’s the best running back in New Orleans), Rashard Mendenhall (I still love his game, and I have a feeling Parker might get the snip), Roddy White (one of the best receivers in the game, doesn’t get enough credit), Marques Colston (not sure, but he might have lost a lot of value), Braylon Edwards (so much talent, so many drops, probably drops way down because of those), Ted Ginn Jr (looks to be doing well, next year is his 3rd), Dwayne Bowe (consistent, very consistent and that KC offense seems to be blossoming a little bit), Vincent Jackson (this might finally be the time he meets those expectations he gets from his talent), Maurice Jones Drew (the #1 back in Jacksonville next season, all season- he’s had a great year, and they will undoubtedly have a healthier offensive line next season), Ronnie Brown (they didn’t give him the ball enough this year, Ricky gets older, this kid has all the talent in the world for a team that’s getting better where it counts, on the line), Ryan Torrain (I watched him in half a game, and I see what Mike Shanny sees in him, hopefully Shanny doesn’t go schitzo and change it up, but he’s a deep sleeper), Ray Rice (stay tuned, but Willis might get the snip, and Ray would be in line for at least a Chris Johnson-LenDale White type share of the Ravens backfield), Roy Williams (this is a big shot in the dark, but Dallas traded too much and gave up too much money to see Roy get 3 passes a game, he probably turns into a 1000 yard guy next year, but I think his value will go back up because of Dallas Hype going into next season).

10 for Tuesday

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What’s up folks – hopefully you didn’t have as bad a fantasy week as I had. If it wasn’t the refs getting me down, it was the Cleveland Browns ability to properly tackle anyone. How they won that game is beyond me. All being said, I’m still basically a lock for the playoffs in most leagues I’m in, so now (in Week 12) I’m looking for great playoff match-ups with relatively unowned players, and some guys you might be able to snipe from your opponents in the last week before the trade deadline (if yours hasn’t passed yet). Here’s a few that strike my fancy. 

Ahmad Bradshaw: Not only do I think he’s probably the best all around back in New York (though obviously the Giants don’t think so, and that’s what matters), but Bradshaw looks to get a lot more carries going down the stretch. If the NFC keeps playing like they’re playing, and the Giants keep playing like they’re playing, some rest for their main horses will be in the cards for people like Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress. Bradshaw may play tough defenses, but the Giants have shown that they can run on anyone. If Bradshaw gets 12-18 carries he’s a nice starting option down the stretch. 

Dominic Hixon: I feel the same way about Hixon that I do about Bradshaw. Super talented kid that, when he gets chances, does work. His secondary schedule is a little better than Bradshaw’s run defense schedule, and you know Plax will be the first Giant to get some time off. 

Peyton Manning: Everyone knows Peyton, but unlike previous seasons, these Colts are going to have to try to win until the end, and that’s great for Manning and his easy breazy schedule down the stretch. If you can get him, for the first time in a long time, he might be my favorite signal caller to own down the stretch. 

Larry Johnson: Interesting play here, but his Week 13, 14, and 15 schedule looks like this… Oakland (YAY!), Denver (AWESOME!), and San Diego (CHEER-E-O). Larry got lots of carries in his first game back, and there’s no reason to think that Herm goes away from him down the stretch. 

Pierre Thomas: The kid is a shot in the dark, because of Reggie Bush, Deuce and such – but he’s the best actual running back in New Orleans, and the Saints play the Falcons in Week 14 and the Lions in Week 16- and there’s a chance he could be the guy getting those looks toward the end of the season. Historically the kid is solid when he gets touches. 

Joey Galloway: Joey was held without a catch last week and hasn’t scored more than 5 fantasy points this year, not more than 3 since opening day – but you look at the Bucs schedule going forward and you have to see a shot at some light from the 37 year old receiver. Vikings, Lions, Saints, Panthers (tough match-up), Falcons, Chargers, Raiders… It seems like the tough part of the Bucs schedule is over, Galloway could be a nice pick-up if you need help at receiver. 

Warrick Dunn: Caddy Williams is getting some love and I hope the kid comes back and does good work for TB, but you have to be real, and WD40 is going to be the guy getting the load of the carries. You saw Joey’s Buc schedule above – Warrick’s is the same – a good pick up down the stretch. 

Brandon Jones: Justin Gage will be the cat added to everyone’s team this week, and that’s fine, but Jones is a nice option too, especially with the Jets coming up next week (Tennessee will probably have to throw on them) and then the Lions, Browns, and Texans immediately following. Kerry can throw the ball alright, and lately this team has been more balanced. 

Jerry Porter: If you feel like shooting at a small hoop, very far away, in the dark – Jerry might be your guy. The talent is there, he might steal a starting spot with Matt Jones looking to miss some games, and nobody else in Jacksonville has separated themselves from the rest of the receiving pack. Vikings this week, then the Texans, then the Bears and Packers – not great secondaries, he might be worth a shot. 

Gus Frerotte: Ugh, I know. But the Jags, Lions, and Cardinals all come to town in 3 of the next four weeks. Gus has his best games at home, and none of those secondaries scare me much. I’m sure the Vikings will be tied to Adrian Peterson, but some hook ups between Gus and Berrian are in the cards.