Sunday Observations: Week 7 NFL Football

“My buddy Josh had this great idea, take some of our best comments to each other from Sunday’s action, the group’s best and worst textual masterpieces, and put them together in one article for all to see. Sometimes our day-time observations can be priceless, other times hilarious, and every once in a while even useful.” That’s basically what you need to know. This week, Red Red Ryan joined the text-party and he had a few funny observations as well. Here’s some stuff to read…

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Josh Arsenault

1. Two kick return TDs against me last week by Eddie Royal and Denver’s brutal special teams unit. Two long-ass defensive TD returns by slow F***ing Steelers’ defensive players this week. Pretty much amazing. I hate fantasy football.

2. Sydney Rice is a beast. I wonder why it took an old man with a beard to get everyone to finally realize that.

3. If you listen carefully you can hear that very last drip of last season’s mixture of Tim Hightower cool-aid going down the drain. Beanie runs hard and fast.

4. Adrian Peterson just decleated Randall Gay, then stepped on him as he ran for 15 more yards, and that was on Gay’s attempted tackle attempt on Peterson’s grab. Is anybody better than him?

5. TO had more catches than drops. 3-2. First time in a long time.

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Lucky Lester

1. Somebody needs to tell Tony Dungy that there are no ghosts in the NBC studio, no murderers either. Could he look more frightened? (Red Red Ryan’s answer: Seriously. It looks like he went #3 in his pants.)

2. If Austin Miles is not for real, he has been one hell of a Dan Brown novel the last two weeks. (Red Red Ryan’s response: I’d read that just to find out that Romo is really trying to MF him in the end.)

3.  I’m pretty sure Reggie Bush just jumped from the 12 yard-line into the end-zone. Nuts. The movie IT has nothing on Reg in the open field.

4. This is the Eli Manning I was talking about prior to the season when I said, stay away! Ellie, if you will.

5. Carolina’s thinking down 7-2 after half: “We don’t have much time, the sun is setting on us, the alarm clock is about to go off, I don’t know if we can get back in the game, the hour glass, the sand, it’s falling… Lets throw, hurry, lets throw early and often, it’s our only chance!!! Unreal.

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Papa Weimer

1. Cedric Benson > Jay Cutler in Cincinnati today. And it’s not close. I’m willing to bet Chicago didn’t see that coming.

2. I started Steve Breaston over Anquan Boldin because I didn’t want the Cardinals to F me like teams usually do when they say a player might play when they have a high ankle sprain. Now I F’d me. Great.

3. Mark Sanchez is eating a hot dog on the sidelines in the middle of a game… well kind of, the Jets are playing Oakland. How big of a crap would the media take if JaMarcus Russell was doing the same thing on his sideline? (Lucky’s response: One hot dog for JaMarcus is like one skittle for a normal guy, and I imagine the media’s bowel movement wouldn’t be nearly as big as your average Russell poo.)

4. I hope that stupid Fox Robot gets stuck out in the rain this week. If his stupid ace can get all rusty, maybe they won’t have him do stupid ish every time they’re trying to show some stupid statistic during football games. (Arse’s response: He’ll pull out a robo-umbrella.)

5. Wow, Jeremy Shockey absolutely beasted that corner. I wonder if he was saying, “Bit**, Pu**y, Wuss, I own you, you suck, want another stiff arm, how about a shot to your face mask, a slap to your head, i’ll kick you and step on your soul if you fall down…” He had about that much time.

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Red Red Ryan

1. Go ahead and add Jake Delhomme to the FML club with Kerry Collins. And go on ahead and throw JaMarcus Russell in there too. (Lucky’s response: They are both already co-owners of that website. I’m pretty sure Jake designed it, JaMarcus tried to eat it, so Jake made him pay for half, now co-owners…)

2. I wish the Bears game was on TV so I could see Cutler’s face after all of his turnovers. It’s just not the same on ESPN play by play. (Papa’s response: I’m watching it right now and it’s that goofy half-drunk face he makes as if it’s everyone’s fault but his own.) (Red’s new response: I would feel better about hating Jay if I was at all sure that he didn’t have fetal alcohol syndrome as a baby.)

3. Receivers are dying in Dallas right now. Atlanta Falcons receivers got blown up on back to back plays. Matt is buying everyone’s dinner tonight. (Josh’s response: Miles Austin lives!)

4. Wow. Carolina is using all their time outs with 6 minutes left in the game. Either they’re drinking what Cutler is drinking or they are… nope, they are drinking Cutler’s magic moon shine.

Week 6 Waiver Wire Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

As an elementary PE teacher, I am confronted daily with situations that make me question not only my chosen profession but also the direction of society as a whole.  The notion of socially acceptable behavior is largely unknown among the elementary population and this leads to some rather interesting (and occasionally amusing) situations.  Allow me to turn back the clock a few days and bring you all along for the odyssey that was my Tuesday afternoon kindergarten class.  Things started out well as students came in and exhibited varying levels of awkwardness in a variety of motor skills and movement patterns.  And then … disaster.  About 10 minutes into the lesson one of the more quiet little girls in class raised her hand and simultaneously began to cry.  Our subsequent exchange went something like this:

Me: “Yes, Tabitha? … What’s wrong?”

Tabitha: “I have to go to the bathroom!”

Me: “Of course you may go to the bathroom, let me get you the pass” (turns around to pick up bathroom pass).

Tabitha: Makes unintelligible whining noises while a dark purple stain spreads rapidly on her sweat pants … more crying ensues

Me: (Turns back around to find growing puddle on gym floor) “Oh God”

Tabitha: “I can’t hold it”

Me: Thinks to himself, “yeah, no shit” … says out-loud, “Don’t worry sweetie, it’s OK”

As I rushed Tabitha across the remaining expanse of gym floor (a strategy I immediately realized was deeply flawed as I looked back at the Niagra-like torrent of urine she was leaving behind), I considered the wonderful simplicity of the kindergarten mind.  Tabitha’s singular focus on throwing and catching a yarn ball shut out all other impulses.  Even the imminent call of nature could not distract her from the task at hand.  Imagine what we as fantasy players could achieve if only we didn’t have the distractions of daily life.  Without jobs, appointments, meetings, wives, girlfriends or children we men would be free to eat meat, piss ourselves and dominate our fantasy leagues.  Despite the obvious social and hygienic consequences, there are times when I miss that singular focus that only a kindergartner’s mind can produce.  Without further ado, I give you my waiver suggestions for week 6 … because there is still something to be said for taking a leak on the floor.

Thing 1: This QB took over as the starter following a move to a new city this past offseason.  Over the last two weeks he has completed 71% of his passes for 388 yards and 5 TDs and 1 INT and is owned in 98% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This QB took over as the starter following an injury to the opening day signal-caller.  Over the last two weeks he has completed 71% of his passes for 356 yds and 3 TDs (0 INTs) and is owned in 3% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Jay Cutler and Thing 2 is Chad Henne.  I was not a big believer in Henne coming out of Michigan but he just may be that rare QB that is a better pro than he was a college player (fellow Wolverine Tom Brady, for example).  Henne has improved his completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns and QB rating over each of the last three weeks and has some nice matchups come fantasy playoff time (Jax, Ten, Hou).  Cutler is a proven star and I expect him to put up better numbers than Henne the rest of the way, but in weeks 14-16 he faces the Packers at home, the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Vikings at home.  They don’t call Chicago the windy city for nothing and December will be a tough month for Cutler to rack up fantasy points through the air.

Thing 1: This RB has received 27 touches and has totaled 71 yards and 0 TDs over the last two weeks (2.6 ypt).  He is currently the lead option in a RBBC and is owned in 94% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This RB has received just 9 touches over the past two weeks but has totalled 51 yards (5.7 ypt).  He is currently the tail end of a RBBC and is owned in 1% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Julius Jones and Thing 2 is Justin Forsett.  Jones has averaged barely 2.5 ypc over his last two contests and has shown little playmaking ability or burst in the process.  Although the return of QB Matt Hasselbeck should help open up the running lanes for Jones and recent addition Edgerrin James, Forsett is the only member of this backfield committee that has real big-play potential.  His contributions in the receiving game and returning kicks also add some intrigue to Forsett’s value, especially in PPR leagues.  If one (or both) of his backfield mates misses time with an injury, be sure to pounce on the former Golden Bear and his 6+ ypc average.

Thing 1: In weeks 2-5, this WR has compiled 14 receptions for 203 yards and 0 TDs.  His production has been decent this season but not what his owners had hoped for after a big week 1 showing.  He is owned in 99% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: In weeks 2-5, this WR has compiled 13 receptions for 214 yards and 1 TD.  His production has been a pleasant surprise for his team and he is rapidly becoming a fantasy factor.  He is owned in 3% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Santonio Holmes and Thing 2 is Mike Wallace.  The Steelers have been very pleased with their rookie wideout from Ole Miss.  Wallace has taken a solid hold on the #3 WR spot in Pittsburgh, leap-frogging Limas Sweed in the process.  Ben Roethlisberger is a QB that likes to spread the wealth so although Wallace’s production may not be steady, I expect his role to continue to expand as he has shown the ability to make tough catches in traffic as well as getting behind the defense to make plays down the field.  If you are looking for a bye-week fill-in, Wallace could offer some nice value over the next few weeks beginning with a solid matchup against the Cleveland Browns this weekend.

Thing 1: This veteran TE has reeled in 14 passes for 142 yards and 1 TD over his past three games.  As the season progresses this player should develop more chemistry with his QB.  He is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This young TE has hauled in 10 passes for 184 yards and 1 TD over his past three games.  As the season progresses this player should also develop the chemistry with his QB.  He is owned in 15% of ESPN leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Tony Gonzalez and Thing 2 is Jermichael Finley.  The 22-year-old Finley has made some dramatic strides in his second full season with the Packers.  Although his blocking is still a work in progress, his playmaking ability is considerable (as evidenced by his huge Monday night performance against the Vikings).  With defenses keying on Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, Finley should continue to find a lot of room to operate in the middle of the field and so far Aaron Rodgers looks like he will take advantage of the mismatches.  There is still some boom-or-bust risk here as Finley was held without a catch in a week 3 matchup with St. Louis, but my advice is to take a chance on the upside while you can.  The Packers had their bye in week 5 so health-permitting Finley is a tight end you can get cheap and plug in for the rest of the season.

Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Football Analysis Week 5

Week 4 was historic, it was the first week that I didn’t finish first in overall fantasy rankings, a little competition we have here at LuckyLester.com. For those of you that don’t know, the staff gets together their fantasy rankings for the week, and in the Fantasy Focus review everybody gets graded based on their picks. I won the first 3 weeks before getting ousted by my chubby and generally crazy uncle. I haven’t heard the end of it since he knew he took home the gold. But hey, I still finished tied for “next” with Red Red Ryan, yet another guy that keeps telling me he’s just as good as me. It’s a tough crowd, you fall a step back one week and now you’re not the best. We’ll see… This week we have four more teams on bye, Bears, Packers, Saints, Chargers – so don’t get caught with any of those circus-squads in your starting lineup. Dream big in Week 5, almost 1/3 of the way through the fantasy season. Craziness…

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – Come on, free money, against the Titans D, he should be even better than normal.
2. Adrian Peterson – I liked him last week against the Packers, and while he didn’t do well, I won’t hesitate against STL.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – This cat is physical, ask Frank Gore what physical runners do to Seattle…
4. Matt Schaub – The Cardinals are really good against the run, good enough to score a lot, thus Matt will have a day.
5. Reggie Wayne – I can’t get enough of Reggie, he’s such a sure thing, and I expect him to do bad things to Tennessee.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Julius Jones– Julius and the Hawks were brutal last week, but against Jax’s defense, I like his upside.
2. Santana Moss – If Carolina knows what’s good for them, they’ll stack the line. That should open a few up for Moss.
3. Tim Hightower– I’d say Tim was picked in the low rounds, but he’s not full sleeper. Against Houston he could score twice.
4. Carson Palmer – I like Carson again, even against a good Ravens D – there’s room to pass in that secondary.
5. Hines Ward –Hines, like Carson, finds himself on this list for the 2nd straight week. He didn’t let me down last time.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Tashard Choice – He might be a back-up again, but if Dallas is up early, why waste Marion? They won’t, Choice gets 20 totes.
2. Jerome Harrison – I’ve always loved his vision; thought he’d do big things with lots of carries; he’ll get them again this week.
3. Mohamed Massaquoi –He’s the #1 in Cleveland now, and Derek Anderson likes him. A good play this week.
4. Steve Breaston– You can probably pick up breast in most leagues; he could be huge against Houston.
5. Eddie Royal – I have to go to this well one more week, he’s as talented as little guys come, could be huge!

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Ray Rice – I would sit Rice this week, I think Cincinnati really shuts him down in Week 5.
2. Steven Jackson – Minnesota, ick. I’d rather start Mendenhall, Hightower, or Julius Jones.
3. Matt Ryan – I’d look for a better option than San Francisco’s solid defense coming off two weeks of prep.
4. Roddy White –If I don’t like Matty Ice, I really don’t like Roddy going against Nate Clements all day long.
5. Larry Johnson – Get ready for less than 3 yards per rush against Dallas.

PS – Bye weeks are back, and here for some time, recognize! Mind the gap!

Week 5 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

Ryan Kauffman	        Josh Arsenault		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Peyton Manning   	1.Peyton Manning	1.Matt Schaub   	1.Peyton Manning
2.Kurt Warner   	2.Tom Brady     	2.Kurt Warner     	2.Matt Schaub
3.Ben Roethlisberger 	3.Donovan McNabb     	3.Tony Romo     	3.Donovan McNabb
4.Joe Flacco     	4.Matt Schaub     	4.Peyton Manning 	4.Carson Palmer
5.Tom Brady     	5.David Garrard    	5.Donovan McNabb	5.Kurt Warner
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson	1.Maurice Jones-Drew	1.Adrian Peterson	1.Adrian Peterson
2.Chris Johnson 	2.Brandon Jacobs  	2.Rashard Mendenhall  	2.Maurice Jones-Drew
3.Maurice Jones-Drew	3.DeAngelo Williams  	3.Chris Johnson 	3.Brandon Jacobs
4.DeAngelo Williams	4.Clinton Portis    	4.Brian Westbrook 	4.Rashard Mendenhall
5.Brandon Jacobs 	5.Rashard Mendenhall   	5.Glen Coffee   	5.Tim Hightower

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Reggie Wayne	        1.Reggie Wayne          1.T.J. Housmandzadeh 	1.Reggie Wayne
2.Andre Johnson 	2.Andre Johnson   	2.Reggie Wayne		2.DeSean Jackson
3.Larry Fitzgerald  	3.Anquan Boldin 	3.Larry Fitzgerald   	3.Anquan Boldin
4.Derrick Mason    	4.Brandon Marshall 	4.Andre Johnson 	4.Chad Ochocinco
5.Hines Ward    	5.Calvin Johnson	5.Mike Sims-Walker	5.Andre Johnson

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark  	1.Dallas Clark
2.Jason Witten		2.Jason Witten		2.Tony Gonzalez 	2.Chris Cooley
3.Chris Cooley		3.Tony Gonzalez		3.Vernon Davis  	3.Owen Daniels
4.John Carlson   	4.Brent Celek   	4.Chris Cooley		4.Tony Gonzalez
5.Vernon Davis  	5.Vernon Davis   	5.Dustin Keller 	5.Jason Witten

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Vikings		1.Vikings		1.Giants		1.Giants
2.Steelers		2.Giants        	2.Vikings		2.Vikings
3.Giants 		3.Eagles 		3.Eagles		3.Jets
4.Jets   		4.Cowboys  		4.Ravens		4.Eagles
5.Patriots		5.Jets  		5.Steelers		5.Steelers

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Laces out, just like our kickers, out of the rankings! When the toe kick returns, we're back in!

Fantasy Football Advice: Ask Papa Weimer Week 5

I couldn’t get the deal done last week, but I still answered all the questions that came in. So those of you that wrote in, keep doing so. Those of you that want to write in but can’t figure out how, send me an email at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – questions asked will be questions answered. As for football this weekend, my respect goes out to Brett Favre. The Packers weren’t going to let Adrian Peterson beat them, and Brett didn’t mind one bit, he just went out and threw lasers all over the field to beat his former team. Good on ya Brett! On to the questions…

I’m Tim Too asks, “Do I trade Rashard Mendenhall now, with his value oh-so-high, or do I wait until after Detroit for him to have even more value?” I have Ronnie Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Knowshon Moreno already, and I need help at receiver to pair with my current trio of Carolina’s Steve Smith, Nate Burleson, and Roddy White. If I can trade Mendenhall for Boldin, should I do it? Or should I wait and see if I can’t trade Mendenhall for Andre Johnson after this weekend?”

I would trade Mendenhall for Boldin right now if you could. I like Mendenhall, and my nephew absolutely loves the guy, but you have great backs and solid receivers, but Boldin would probably be your surest thing moving forward. You never know what Tomlin is going to do with Rashard, how his youth will get taught lessons, and how Willie Parker will be used in that offense. What you do know is that if Boldin is on the field he is a PPR machine that makes touchdowns happen. And while Kurt Warner likes him, Matt Leinart relies even more on Boldin. So no matter what happens in Arizona, you’d think Boldin does big things. I’d rather have Andre Johnson, but what if Mendenhall doesn’t dominate the Lions, what if Parker gets half the carries, I think that if you are going to trade Mendenhall, Boldin is a nice get in return.

William out West types, “Papa, I’ve been offered a trade in my league that rewards big plays, has yardage performances, and goes all the way to the end of the season. It’s a points league. Kyle Orton and Julius Jones for Frank Gore and Heath Evens. I am currently 4th in my league standings and the Top 4 teams get paid. It’s a big money league. Do I trade Frank, and his bum wheel, for a good back-up QB (my current back up is Vick) and running back help right now?”

William, no. Frank Gore might miss two more games. If he stays healthy after that, he’s a strong candidate to get 100 yard games multiple times, he’s the bell-cow in that offense, and Mike Singletary likes to feed him the rock. The last time he played he went for 200+ yards against the Hawks. His defense is very good and the offensive line is physical. Kyle Orton is solid, but the way the Steelers have been throwing the ball, I’d rather have Big Ben in almost every situation. Stick to your guns, ride out the rest of the way with Frank Gore, because in a league like this he has some great value. See if you can’t pick up a guy like Jerome Harrison off waivers, and just do your best to make it through the tough time that Gore is down. Think future, 2 games out now might be good for 10 games healthy in the future.

Desmond Parker says, “I know you are a fantasy guy, and the general football questions go to your nephew, but do you have a sure thing survivor pick for me this week? I can’t take the Ravens, Vikings, Packers, or Colts. Any help is good help as long as I stay in my pool…”

Desmond, funny you should ask, I like to call myself the survivor pool guru. A few years ago, when the Saints were playing well and St. Louis was winless, I took the Rams in the survivor pool as the single opponent I was going up against took the Saints. Well, the Rams were winless no more and I got paid. Now that’s balls. Luckily, this week you don’t need those kind of rocks, you have lots of good options. I’d rank them as follows. Giants @ home against Oakland, Philadelphia @ home against Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh @ Detroit. I’d stay with the home teams, but if you really don’t like those two games, the Steelers should blow out their first opponent this season. Good luck Desmond, feel free to write in anytime – any football question is good enough for me!

Fantasy Football Week 3 Waiver Watch: Thing 1 and Thing 2

Welcome back for my next installment of Thing 1 and Thing 2. If you followed my advice last week you got comparable (and in some cases better) production from your lesser-owned fantasy players. The lone exception was due to Kellen Winslow’s breakout game and Robert Royal’s disappearing act. You can’t win them all I guess but four out of five ain’t bad. As the weeks go on it will get tougher and tougher to uncover those hidden gems so staying active on your league’s waiver wire early can really pay off as the season wears on. Who should you be paying attention to as week 3 approaches? … Let’s get after it.

Thing 1: A much-hyped rookie coming out of college, this kid has loads of talent but hasn’t looked ready for the NFL early in his career.  He is currently the sexier pick in a RBBC offensive scheme but his production has yet to match his 95% ownership in ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: A career backup that has had some injury troubles but has always done the most with the chances that have been given to him.  He is currently being overlooked as a fantasy contributor but his production on the field warrants much more consideration than his 38% ownership suggests.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Knowshon Moreno and Thing 2 is Correll Buckhalter.  The running back situation in Denver will likely be fluid all season long, but don’t miss out on the cheap production you can get from a guy like Buckhalter, especially early in the season.  Moreno will finish the season with more touches, but I think Buckhalter will score more TDs for the Broncos due to his big play ability and slightly larger build.

Thing 1: This QBs upside is marginal but he does have a talented group of wide receivers and young, imaginative offensive mind calling the shots.  That said, his decision-making has always been a huge question mark and I am amazed that he is currently owned in 78% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This QB came into the season undrafted in all but the deepest of leagues but is steadily making strides toward fantasy consideration.  He does turn the ball over more than he should but early in the season his yardage and TDs are more than making up for it.  He is currently owned in just 12% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Kyle Orton and Thing 2 is Byron Leftwich.  Orton is the prototypical “game manager” and has the potential to post more consistent stat-lines than Leftwich, but the upside of the sluggish-armed Tampa QB is intriguing.  He has shown a good rapport with TE Kellen Winslow early in the year and a defense on the decline could have him playing a lot of catchup.  Ask Jay Cutler how that worked out for his fantasy stats last year.

Thing 1: This WR is an extremely gifted route-runner and has some of surest hands in the NFL.  Due to some off-season changes to his supporting cast, his early-season production has taken a major hit.  I still like the kid a lot, and he is becoming a good buy-low candidate, but he is currently owned in 90% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This young WR has blazing speed and his big-play potential has caused his team to try and find more opportunities to get the ball in his hands.  A big jump in his ownership percentage this past week means owners are starting to take notice so this may be your last chance to go get him.  He is currently owned in 20% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Eddie Royal and Thing 2 is Johnny Knox.  Royal’s loss this past off-season has been Knox’s gain in the form of Jay Cutler.  A strong-armed QB with decent accuracy, Cutler is able to fit the ball into tight spots for Knox to work those shallow crosses and sideline routes that made Royal a household name last year.  As their chemistry grows expect to see more of the speed merchant from Abilene Christian.

Thing 1: This physical WR uses his body extremely well to make tough catches in traffic.  He has a rookie signal-caller tossing him the rock and over the first two weeks of the season they have shown decent chemistry.  He has yet to get into the end zone, but this productive wideout is currently owned in 96% of ESPN leagues.

Thing 2: This second-year WR won a preseason battle for the #2 role on his team.  Although his play was inconsistent in his rookie season, he has shown flashes of big-play potential and has developed into a good route-runner.  He won’t produce as a fantasy starter every week, but there is value here and he is owned in just 12% of leagues.

Reality Check: Thing 1 is Jerricho Cotchery and Thing 2 is Chansi Stuckey.  I like what I have seen from Stuckey and his rookie QB thus far.  Mark Sanchez’s lightning-quick feet and superb vision mean he will be able to keep plays alive longer than his aging predecessor, allowing his receivers to work toward open space.  I think Stuckey has big-time sleeper potential in an offense that looks to be much more balanced than anyone thought heading into the season.

Trick or Treat?: Week 2 Fantasy Football Analysis

Welcome to Red Red Ryan’s weekly “Trick or Treat” section, where I, Red Red Ryan will break down some of the performances from the previous week and tell you whether or not you are being tricked or you can expect the same treat the rest of the way.

Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal:
Does a quarterback make the wide receivers? Or do the wide receivers make the quarterback? In my opinion the quarterback make the wide receiver, and that spells trouble for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. I’m not saying that they are bad receivers, I think they are elite receivers, however they have a terrible quarterback throwing them the ball. In 2008 with Jay Cutler locking in on them Marshall caught 104 passes for 1265 yards and 6 TD’s and Royal caught 91 passes for 980 yards and 5 TD’s. After two weeks in the 2009 season Marshall and Royal are on pace for less than half of their stats from 2008. Marshall is on pace for just 56 receptions and Royal for only 40. These numbers are very close to Devin Hester’s 51 receptions for 665 and 3 TD’s, who was Orton’s number 1 receiving target from 2008. Meanwhile in Chicago; Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, and Devin Hester all have more receptions than Marshall and Royal. You are going to get what you’re getting, no trick here.
Verdict: Treat

Matt Forte:
Tough going so far in 2009 for second year running back Matt Forte. In Week 1 he rushed for 55 yards on 25 carries and for the first time in his career he went without a catch. Matt had a bit of a bounce back game in week 2 catching 5 passes for 33 yards while rushing 13 times for 29 yards. It was nice to see Forte getting some touches in the passing game after the Week 1 loss. I think we will see Lovie Smith’s influence by seeing more passes to their playmaker out of the backfield. As for Forte’s lack of rushing yards, I think we see a big change in the Week 3 match-up versus the Seahawks. I expect Forte to get back on track this week against a beat up and generally soft run defense, and carry that momentum with him for the rest of the season.
Verdict: Trick

Eli Manning:
Which quarterback has the 5th most passing yards in the NFL? That’s right, it’s Eli Manning. Thus far in 2009 Eli has sliced and diced his way through 2 top 7 passing defenses from the 2008 season. I know it’s early, and history shows he’s bound to have a 3 INT game in the next 2 weeks, but I just don’t think it’s going to happen this year. And now, I couldn’t find any crazy red headed stats to back me up, because the truth is he usually goes interception happy. But if you look at the Giants schedule coming up they play against some pretty bad pass defenses, and unless the “G-men” can get the ground game going Eli will be throwing early and often to his underrated group of young wide outs.
Verdict: Treat

Cedric Benson:
Woo Hoo!! Cedric Benson is 6th in the league in rushing. Nice middle round pick taking the last starting running back available. Time to get some return from Cedric while his value is at his highest. Yes, his highest. So far Cedric has rushed for 76 yards against the Broncos and 141 yards against the Packers. Both teams in the bottom 6 rush defense from a year ago. The real test will be over the next 7 weeks when he faces the Steelers and Ravens twice, with the Bears in between. I believe Benson is a #3 RB and should only be started in a good match up. So if you can sell high on him, and buy low on a guy like Steve Slaton, I think you will be better off at seasons end.
Verdict: Trick

NFL Fantasy Focus Review: Week 2

One more week down in the NFL, one more fantasy title in the bag for me. That’s right folks, I fought off Red Red Ryan, his awkward red hair, and that allergy riddled red skin, and took home the top spot amongst the staff for the second straight week. If I ice the game for three weeks in a row, you can bet I’ll be talking hat trick once again. This is the review of my fantasy picks for Week 2, hope you enjoy the Fantasy Focus!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Michael Turner – Turner carried 28 times for a buck-0-five and a touchdown. But was just ok. C
2. Tom Brady – Tom was brutal this week, making me look like a rookie at this game. F
3. Marques Colston – 8 catches, 98 yards, 2 TDs, huge day. Those Eagles can’t guard big WRs. A+
4. Steve Smith – I told you week 1 was a fluke, Steve caught 8 balls for 131 yards in Week 2. B+
5. Brian Westbrook – Westbrook wasn’t as big a part of the offense as I thought. D

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Eddie Royal – Eddie is killing me. I’m not giving up on him yet. F-
2. Ronnie Brown – 4th amongst backs, Ronnie had a huge day on the ground against the Colts. A+
3. Joe Flacco– His second straight multiple TD game of the season, but only 190 yards. B-
4. Joseph Addai – Addai was hurt by the Colts quick strike offense, getting only 6 carries and 31 yards. F
5. Leon Washington – Leon didn’t do much in a low scoring game. F

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Michael Bush – The Raiders are dealing with 8 in the box, Bush had 9 carries for 35 yards. Ugh. D
2. David Garrard – 9th overall, that’s more like it, I think Garrard will have a quietly solid year. A-
3. LenDale White – Chris Johnson put on a show, and White got just 6 carries for 25 yards, tough deal. F
4. Mike Bell– Mike looked good again, and despite getting hurt, put up 85 yards and a TD on 18 touches. A
5. Nate Burleson – Four catches for 46 yards, no scores. The Hawks looked lost when Matt went down. D+

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Jay Cutler – Cutler played well, giving his team a chance even though they couldn’t run at all. F
2. Reggie Bush – 13 touches for 75 yards and a touchdown, better than I thought. D
3. Steven Jackson – 17 carries for 104, 4 grabs for 15 yards. Not bad, better than I expected, not great. C+
4. Julius Jones – He may have snuck in a short TD catch, but Julius had 11 yards on 8 carries. I was right. A
5. Patrick Crayton – 3 fantasy points in a PPR league. This one I got one right on the money. A

PS – If you started Wes Welker, it probably hurt you. I know I won a league because of it…

Week 2 Fantasy Rankings

Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

QBs----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Drew Brees 2   	1.Drew Brees 2		1.Drew Brees 2		1.Tom Brady 28
2.Peyton Manning 7	2.Peyton Manning 7	2.Tom Brady 28    	2.Kurt Warner 9
3.Aaron Rodgers	14	3.Tom Brady 28     	3.Tony Romo 23    	3.Peyton Manning 7
4.Kurt Warner 9   	4.Kurt Warner 9		4.Matt Hasselbeck 31	4.Joe Flacco 17
5.Matt Schaub 1  	5.Aaron Rodgers 14	5.Kyle Orton 18		5.Drew Brees 2
RBs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Adrian Peterson 8	1.Adrian Peterson 8	1.Adrian Peterson 8	1.Michael Turner 15
2.Maurice Jones Drew 25	2.Chris Johnson 1	2.Michael Turner 15	2.Brian Westbrook 33
3.Brian Westbrook 33	3.Maurice Jones Drew 25	3.Darren McFadden 21	3.Adrian Peterson 8
4.Ronnie Brown 4	4.Clinton Portis 33	4.Maurice Jones Drew 25	4.Frank Gore 2
5.Clinton Portis 33	5.Brian Westbrook 33	5.Thomas Jones 41 	5.Chris Johnson 1

WRs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Greg Jennings	109	1.Reggie Wayne 54   	1.Larry Fitzgerald 27	1.Randy Moss 54
2.Larry Fitzgerald 27	2.Larry Fitzgerald 27	2.Reggie Wayne 54	2.Larry Fitzgerald 27
3.Reggie Wayne 54  	3.Randy Moss 54		3.Steve Smith 7   	3.Marques Colston 3
4.Andre Johnson 1	4.Roddy White 16	4.Jericho Cotchery 30	4.Andre Johnson 1
5.Steve Smith 7  	5.Greg Jennings 109	5.Calvin Johnson 16	5.Steve Smith 7

TEs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Jason Witten 8 	1.Jason Witten 8	1.Tony Gonzalez 3	1.Dallas Clark 1
2.Chris Cooley 6	2.Dallas Clark 1	2.John Carlson 13 	2.Jason Witten 8
3.Tony Gonzalez	3	3.John Carlson 13	3.Dallas Clark 1 	3.Zach Miller 49
4.Jeremy Shockey 18	4.Tony Gonzalez	3	4.Owen Daniels 4 	4.Kellen Winslow 2
5.Zach Miller 49  	5.Owen Daniels 4  	5.Jason Witten 8	5.Chris Cooley 6

DSTs-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1.Steelers 18		1.Vikings 4		1.Vikings 4		1.Steelers 18
2.Ravens 18		2.Steelers 18		2.Steelers 18		2.Packers 12
3.Vikings 4		3.Redskins 3		3.Ravens 18		3.Falcons 12
4.Seahawks 24		4.Patriots 16		4.Packers 12		4.Redskins 3
5.Falcons 12		5.Packers 12		5.Cowboys 31		5.Vikings 4

Kickers-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kickers be damned, but here's the Week 2 Rankings:
1. Rian Lindell 2. Lawrence Tynes 3. Dan Carpenter 4. Nate Kaeding
Looking back at the week's action... For the second straight week, I had higher rated
players in my Top 5 lists than anybody else on the site. Josh took QBs, Ryan took the TEs
pretty easily, and I had running backs, receivers, and defenses taken care of. Ryan had lots
of second place finishes, but his terrible WR picks kept him in 2nd place, keeping me on
top. It feels good to win, always. Papa Weimer pretty much pooped the bed, but he's old and
basically needs help getting up at night to use the toilet, so that kind of thing is
expected now and again. Josh was the only writer that had the balls to take Matt Schaub,
plus he left Tom Brady off his Top 5, those two things gave him an easy win. We missed a lot
of good quarterbacks in Week 2, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Byron Leftwich, and Eli
Manning finished 3-6 respectively - not one writer picked any one of those guys. As for RB,
nobody picked Darren Sproles, Marion Barber, Fred Jackson, or Willis McGahee - those guys
finished 3, 5, and tied for 6 on the week. Felix Jones and Carnell Williams also did work
rounding out the top 10. In the receiver area, I had numbers 1, 3, and 7 in my top 5, seeing
big games from Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, and Steve Smith. Plus, I didn't put Greg
Jennings in my Top 5 like Red Red Ryan and Josh, his 0 point night put them in a tough spot.
We left out Mario Manningham, who made a big name for himself with a great Sunday Night
performance. A couple more Top 10 guys that didn't get picked, Steve Smith (NYG), Vincent
Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker, Donald Driver, Ted ginn Jr., and DeSean Jackson. Jason Avant
and Johnny Knox also had big games out of nowhere.  Ryan took the TE list with 1, 3, 8, 4,
and 13 all making his Top 5. Brent Celek, Marcedez Lewis, and Kellen Davis all made the top
10, and none of us picked them. The Broncos and Cardinals finished atop the defensive
rankings, and went unpicked in any of our Top 5s. That's how it was, one more week for
Lucky Lester!!!

Keeping score for week 2! This is the positional breakdown based on Week 2's rankings:
Josh Arsenault		Ryan Kauffman		Papa Weimer		Lucky Lester

1.QBs 1         	1.QBs 2		        1.QBs 4  		1.QBs 3
2.RBs 3		        2.RBs 2	   	        2.RBs 4                 2.RBs 1
3.WRs 3		        3.WRs 4		        3.WRs 2         	3.WRs 1
4.TEs 4  		4.TEs 1          	4.TEs 2         	4.TEs 3
5.DST 3         	5.DST 2         	5.DST 4         	5.DST 1

Last Minute Fantasy Football: Projections by Ryan

This season is going to be crazy in Fantasy Football. How crazy? These things are going to happen. Some say they are a little bold, a couple guys’ say they are just plain nuts, but when all these “crazy” predictions come true remember who was behind these pre-season projections. I’ve got one for every single team in the league, that’s 32 chances at brilliance. The season start’s Thursday, and it won’t take long to see I’m onto something good.

1. Lee Evans out scores TO.

2. Ted Ginn Jr. gets 80 catches, 1100 yards, and 8 TD’s.

3. Laurence Maroney leads the Pats in rushing TD’s and rushing yards.

4. Mark Sanchez throws more INT’s than TD’s.

5. Joe Flacco throws 20+ TD’s.

6. Carson Palmer is a Top 10 QB.

7. Braylon Edwards remembers he is a freak of nature and looks more like the 2007 Braylon with 90 catches for 1300 yards and 12 TD’s.

8. Santonio Holmes leads the Steelers in receiving yards.

9. Matt Schaub finishes the season playing in every game and a Top 5 QB.

10. Joseph Addai finishes the season with more than 600 yards and 6 TD’s ahead of Donald Brown.

11. Tory Holt grabs 11 TD’s

12. Vince Young starts more games than Kerry Collins

13. Eddie Royal finishes the season with more catches, yards, and TD’s than Brandon Marshall.

14. Larry Johnson rushes for 1200 yards and 10 TD’s.

15. Darrius Heyward-Bay shocks everyone but me and halls in 60 catches for 900 yards and 6 TD’s.

16. LT has one great season left in him and goes off for 1800 total yards and 15 TD’s.

17. Tony Romo finishes the season outside the Top 15 QB’s.

18. Brandon Jacobs plays in less than half the Giants games.

19. Mike Vick starts at least 3 games for the Eagles.

20. Beanie Wells leads all rookie RB’s in rushing yards and TD’s.

21. Steven Jackson finally stays healthy for 16 games and is a top 3 RB.

22. Michael Crabtree signs by week 3 in San Fran, catches 65 balls for 800 yards and 6 TD’s.

23. Julius Jones rushes for more than 800 yards and 8 TD’s.

24. Jason Cambell throws 26 TD’s and less than 10 INT’s.

25. Jay Cutler throws more INT’s than TD’s.

26. Kevin Smith puts up another solid year in Detroit with 1400 total yards 60 catches and 10 TD’s.

27. Ryan Grant breaks out for 1400 yards rushing and 12 TD’s.

28. Adrian Peterson rushes for 2100 yards and 16 TD’s.

29. Tony Gonzalez catches less than 6 TD’s

30. DeAngelo Williams doesn’t share as many carries, as “The Daily Show” struggles to stay healthy, and puts up better numbers than 2008.

31. Reggie Bush plays in 14 games and outscores Pierre Thomas.

32. TB starts 3 QB’s during the year and they are all bad.

Fantasy Q and A: Ask Papa Weimer Week 1

I’m really back now, and my fantasy football help is better than ever. I got my eyes lazered this last weekend and I can see clearly now that I need to get the hell out of this state. It’s been nice, but hell, it’s about to get rainy, and that’s when these old crooked football battered bones start to ache. Somebody win big money off my fantasy advice and send my tattered behind to Thailand so I can swim with the fishies, ride a whale shark, eat curry every day until I die, and just live it up in some nice warm sweaty weather. The dream. The reality? Here I am, going nowhere, and I might as well pretend to enjoy it. Here’s some questions (and answers) from the last 5 days…

Jordan Hardin from L.A. says, “I managed to get Frank Gore, Steve Slaton, Ronnie Brown, and one Adrian Peterson (yes the Viking) on one team. The problem is I can only start two. With AP, which of the other three studs to I start? PPR league…”

Doesn’t it suck when you draft like a super star and end up with too many good players and you never get them right on Sundays? I sure do, happens to me now and again, but I have a strategy. I start the guy that means the most to his offense or the guy that has the best match-up. If you have both of those things at once you’ve hit a one roll yahtzee and it’s time to celebrate good freaking times. I don’t think you’re quite at yahtzee level here, maybe a nice three of a kind, but you still have some hints. Frank Gore is going to get more carries than either of the other guys, but the Cardinals have a pretty solid run defense. That’s 1 out of 2. Steve Slaton gets to smash heads up against the Jets defensive front, a unit that should only be better than last year. But he also has a chance to catch more than a handful of passes against a pass defense that wasn’t rated real high in 2008. But I think Ronnie Brown is your best option. That Falcon defense is overrated, and they’re not rated real high. I’m pretty high on Ronnie (read # 16) and he’s got a great match-up, and he’s as healthy as he’s been in quite some time. Ronnie and AP, with two 1st round picks on your bench – crazy.

Dos Mexicans ask, “We’ve come across a pre-season trade offer that loses us Matt Forte, but we think makes our team better. We are currently starting Anquan Boldin, Donnie Avery, and Chad Johnson at our 3 WR spots, and Forte and Darren McFadden at our two RB spots (we also have Tom Brady and Jason Witten at QB and TE). Here’s the proposal… We give up Matt Forte and our 3rd QB Matthew Stafford for Steve Slaton and Eddie Royal. We lose our top pick, but Slaton is no small party favor. We have to do that right?

Yes sirs…. I feel like stopping right there, but let me dig in a little tiny bit – as a general rule I like to respond with a bigger amount of total words than my readers’ questions, thus I have some work to do. While Boldin, Ocho, and Avery might not be a bitter bunch of WRs, adding Eddie Royal, a likely 100 catch guy, to the list and allowing Avery to show you that he’s worth starting, is probably the best thing for your team. Especially because you get Steve Slaton, who to be completely honest, isn’t that much lower on my rankings than Forte. Shoot, my nephew only has him 3 spots lower than Forte. Do it guys!

Timothee Woodland wonders out loud, “I’m in a survivor pool, what am I looking at? I’ve never done this before and while I think I’m pretty good at picking games straight up, a few hints you go by would be too kind.”

I must admit, I’m a bit of a survivor guru. I win most of my small leagues with my buddies every year, so far as they’ve started to call me the crystal ball (*side note from Lucky Lester* -We call him Crystal Ball because his big fat bald head looks like a gigantic crystal ball, not because of his luck in survivor, which is a whole other story, that lucky old man). So, what I’m saying, while apparently tooting my own horn, is that you’ve come to the right place. This is what I do. First, don’t pick a road team unless you have no idea which home team to pick. So first thing, take half the teams, and throw them out. Next, don’t take a team on a rare winning streak (4 games or more, playing out of their mind) – why not ride them when they’re hot? Because those things always (or almost always) come crashing down. 3rd, jump at the chance to use injuries to your advantage. Face it, at some point during the season, a couple big name, big time players are going to be out. If the Dolphins get the Patriots without Tom Brady and Randy Moss, be happy to pick the upset. Last piece of advice, don’t agree to a half and half truce with your buddy when you’re in the finals, especially if he’s the one that asks you. If you accept, he’ll always say that he won money and shared it with you, because, well, it was his idea. Ties suck. Win big or go home trying!

Free Fantasy Football Picks: Papas Predictions

My Nephew has me back giving some fantasy advice, he was nice enough to pay me nothing to work for another year, what a guy. But hey, I have fun doing it right? Shit, I only have to wear two pairs of glasses to see the damn screen, make 100 errors while hunting and pecking my way into oblivion, all the while trying not to listen to this voice in my head that keeps telling me to pick Barry Sanders in my upcoming draft – (I still do that with my last pick, what can I say, I’m hopeful for a comeback). So these are my predictions, I hope that’s not too quick of a transition for you, if it is just deal with it I guess. I’m old, but I’ve probably been playing fantasy football since you were an idea that your parents couldn’t even fathom – you know, when they still wore condoms and took birth control. So, I’ve been around for a while, won lots of fantasy championships, and learned from my mistakes as well. What has that taught me? That these predictions are more likely to be true than my nephews. That’s what. Why? Because I’ve only been wrong once, and that was when I thought I was wrong and was actually right. Here goes…

1. Matt Hasselbeck will be a Top 7 quarterback in 2009.

2. Either Chester Taylor or Jerious Norwood will be a Top 20 fantasy back this season. Choose wisely.

3. Matt Schaub will not play more than 12 games, but that’s okay, he’ll still throw 20 touchdowns.

4. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will be a Top 5 fantasy defense.

5. Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback.

6. Donovan McNabb will be Top 5.

7. Who will round out my QB top 7? Drew Brees and Philip Rivers and Tony Romo will be in there too. That leaves one spot left over, gotta have a flier in there somewhere – but I’m not going to predict that, 6 out of 7 ain’t bad.

8. The highest paid QB in the NFL finishes out of the Top 20 in fantasy QB rankings.

9. Even though I’ve had poops bigger than Darren Sproles and Leon Washington, both will finish amongst the Top 30 running backs in PPR leagues.

10. Thomas Jones won’t, Jamal Lewis won’t, Jonathan Stewart won’t either.

11. Knowshon Moreno will have at least five 100-yard games this season.

12. That will be more than Marion Barber.

13. This year’s DeAngelo Williams (surprise, out of nowhere back that is seemingly left for dead because of a high draft pick or “new” back taking his place? That would be Joseph Addai. He won’t be the #1 fantasy back like Williams was last year, but he’s getting drafted around 20 in most of my leagues, he’ll be a Top 10 guy.

14. Marshawn Lynch will be a Top 10 guy from Week 4 until Week 16 – do those week’s matter to anybody?

15. Not much of a stunner, but Adrian Peterson will lead the league in rushing yards, by a lot.

16. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson. Why? Ready… He’s going to have more fantasy points. But I like both guys.

17. Kevin Smith will be a top 10 fantasy running back.

18. Randy Moss will score more fantasy points that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

19. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will catch more passes than anybody in the NFL.

20. Chad Johnson will show everybody that last year was a fluke, and that he’s still very inconsistent, but will be a Top 10 WR in the fantasy world.

21. If Terrell Owens is healthy for all 16 games, he will be a Top 5 fantasy receiver. I will guarantee he’s a top 10 guy regardless.

22. Anthony Gonzalez will have more fantasy points than Roy Williams.

23. Lance Moore will have at least 70 catches for 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. That might not be last years’ totals, but that’s still pretty damn good considering where you draft the guy.

24. John Carlson will be a Top 6 Tight End.

25. Joseph Addai > Darren McFadden > Pierre Thomas… That would be opposite of their draft rankings.

26. Felix Jones scores more fantasy points than Ray Rice.

27. Donnie Avery scores more fantasy points than Donald Driver.

28. The highest scoring rookie receiver this season? Hakeem Nicks.

29. Brandon Jacobs will score more fantasy points, in non PPR leagues, than any other RB in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson. He’s number one, or maybe number two….

30. In the games that Reggie Bush plays in (I’m guessing 12-14) he’ll be a Top 10 PPR RB. So he has GREAT draft value right now. *Currently ranked 31 by Espin the Magazine.

Done and Done. It only took my a million hunts and pecks to find the right keys to right this damn thing, and if you count my hourly wage, I’m going to have to win the lottery to get out of the red… blast. But at least I’ll get to rub it in when these are all right.