New York Jets VS Cincinnati Bengals: AFC Wildcard Playoff Game Pick

I got this game when the Bengals were favored by just a single point, a little while after they opened at -4, and before the line moved by up to -3. Right now, you can find the line anywhere between the Bengals being favored by 2-3 points. And as the line has moved around with haste and ferocity, the public percentage has moved around as well. Right now, the Bengals are seeing about 61% of the bets, but the early money was on New York. Not that any of that stuff matters.

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I wonder what this line would have been had the Bengals sat their starters for Sunday’s entire game. Even if the Jets had won easily, in that case, I think the Bengals would have been favored by a couple more points – but maybe not. Either way, it’s hard for me to put too much weight into one single game. The Bengals have played better with Cedric Benson running the ball. His strength and aggressiveness is a huge part of Cincinnati’s offense, and he’ll be back on the field this week, that should help the Bengals get things going. And while Cincinnati definitely got pushed around by the Jets solid run-defense, it’s hard for me to foresee that happening again this Sunday.

Both these teams are good, both are tough, and both bring it on both sides of the ball. The difference in these two teams is at quarterback where the Bengals have Carson Palmer and the Jets have a rookie, Mark Sanchez. That give the Bengals the advantage in my book. When you add that to the reality that Cincinnati played their worst football of the season last week in New York, and the Jets played one of their best all around games all season long, I think you get a Bengals victory at home. Extremes like that often have a way of evening themselves out. It’s tough to beat up a good football team twice in one year, let alone twice in one week.

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

NFL Free Picks Review: Week 17 Predictions Revisited

Well, the final week has come and gone, and definitely left its mark on us. A couple games went exactly how I figured, and I thought I was a genius. The other games had me scratching my head. The Houston Texans came in and beat the Patriots 1st team – as New England basically played their starters throughout the entire game. But it wasn’t by enough, as I finished a half point out of that win. I, of course, thought the Pats would sit their main guys most of the day. Wrong. Some others went well and a couple more went wrong, but in the end I finished 8-7-1, pumping out yet another winning week…

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Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7) (WINNER) The Colts were playing in the middle of a blizzard, not only the weather, but a guy name Fred Jackson. Keep Fred’s name high on your off-season fantasy rankings, the guy will be the focal point of Buffalo’s offense next season. Just as I suspected, the starters in Buffalo are better than the back-ups in Indy.

New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Carolina Panthers (LOSS) I knew I was in trouble when Jonathan Stewart took it to the house before the game even really started. I got lost in the “we’re going to win, we’re the Saints” way of thinking and thought Mark Brunell could do enough. Wrong. The Panthers whooped the Saints.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Cleveland Browns (LOSS) The Jaguars are unbelievable – how does a head coach of a team in the playoff hunt come into a must win game against a crappy Browns team and get a terrible performance from his team? There’s no excuse for that, I don’t care if you’re Tom freaking Landry, your ace should be jobless for a couple weeks after that garbage. My fault, I didn’t realize how high the Jaguars could turn up the suck.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions (WINNER) Gotta give it to the Bears, they certainly made it interesting but pulled away when they realized they were playing against the Lions. That about sums it up.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (-7.5) (LOSS) Oh Bill, don’t you know that every move you have made this year has ultimately back-fired? When you decided to start your best guys and go for the win, you should have flipped the switch, picked tails over heads, gone opposite day psycho on us, I don’t know – but Wes Welker took the brunt of the whole thing. The Patriots lost, by just enough to cover, after they played starters 00% of the game. A mis-read on the playing time thing made it a tough game for a guy.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (WINNER) The Steelers were a really tough match-up for the Dolphins, and they were playing with a little more jalapeno on their pepper jack, and came out victorious. But it was close, and it’s possible that if the Dolphins didn’t have quarterback trouble, health-wise, the Fins might have pulled the upset. But Pittsburgh won again, and pulled it out by 6.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) (WINNER) The Giants had given up. Whew, that one made me sweat. I hope Tom Coughlin gets fired – wait, I don’t hope that really, I’d rather just hate the Giants and get to see them struggle again next season so I can see Tom and Eli have a stupid face competition for one more year.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams (WINNER) San Francisco tried to come out and lose, starting with no swagger, no push, no nothing. But the Rams could only put up a field goal during those early quarters, and San Francisco came out in the 3rd quarter and managed to finish the game on a 28-3 run. I wonder what Samari Mike did at half time to elicit that kind of football? Hmm…

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WINNER) The Bucs really improved this season, and it showed in the final week as they pushed the Falcons until the very end, making me realize that the oddsmakers weren’t actually crazy. But it ended right for me in the end as the Falcons won by 10 anyway – haha, books, take that!

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (LOSS) Wow, the Eagles pulled a Cowboys… They finished the season just like Dallas did last year, but this time the Eagles get the luxury of a second chance – but instead of it being after a 1st round bye and in their house, they get to travel to Dallas next week. Maybe they should have tried this week?

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3) (LOSS) The Packers were the team looking like they had something to play for. And maybe that was what got me in the end. Arizona found out that Minnesota won, and they suddenly had nothing to play for. Green Bay came out trying to beat the piss out of the team they will be playing next week, and they certainly did that. But it was against back-ups for much of the game. We’ll see how it goes next week, something tells me the Cardinals will be playing starters…

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ Denver Broncos (WINNER) The Chiefs won outright, and made me feel really good about saying, “This game has upset written all over it,” among other things. The Chiefs had me looking brilliant as they ran all over the Broncos for the feel good end-of-the-year victory.

Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Oakland Raiders (LOSS) The Ravens just didn’t push it enough to blowout the Raiders, even though Oakland got a guest appearance from JaMarcus “never cover the spread” Russell, apparently he didn’t play long enough. Oakland was impressive, but the Ravens never looked like they were going to lose despite the close score.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ San Diego Chargers (WINNER) The Redskins were up in the 4th and lost anyway, weird. Even against back-ups, the same stuff continues to happen. I wonder if Mike Shannahan will have that same problem? Either way, the Chargers didn’t win by enough, as the Redskins covered by a point. A big point, too, the win assured me yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (Push) The Titans came out to get Chris Johnson as many touches as he could and get some records or hit some yardage milestones. Well, for the first time this year, the Hawks came and executed a play pretty well. They wanted to make life as tough as possible for Chris, and they hit him hard and often. Johnson still became the leading Titan single season rusher, scored a couple touchdowns, and finished the year with the best total yardage mark of all time – but he needed 36 carries to do so, and he’ll be grateful there’s no game next week so he can rest. He got hit hard. The Hawks tough play actually ended in a push, and I must say, I didn’t expect them to come out with any will at all. They must have fought the evil Jim Mora curse this week, goldbaum, chili powder, and alfredo will do the trick every time…

Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) @ New York Jets (LOSS) I thought this game would be tough for the Jets as the Bengals always play close games, tough defense, and the Jets have a really hard time moving the ball offensively. I was wrong. Cinci came out playing thier starters, and tricking the public into believing they were playing to win. But Carson Palmer ended 1/11 for 0 yards and an INT – while Ochonacho finished without a catch for the first time in 125 games… Tough game for me, I thought it would be a lot tighter than that. The do-over next week in Cincinnati should be interesting…

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals Pick & Preview

Another game that seems too simple. First and foremost, throw out the idea that you are betting on the best team, absolutely not! You can do that a lot, and you can look for match-ups and trends and how teams play against other teams with similar strengths, weaknesses, etc. – but when the end of the year comes a rocking, you can just go on ahead and throw all that garbage right out the window. At that point, with the garbage splattering on another innocent onlooker, you can see the real simple reason to bet one side or another. For example, in this game, the Cardinals are still playing for a shot at home field advantage while the Packers have absolutely no shot to win anything from this game.

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So, if the Packers have any reason whatsoever, and you can bet that they do, they will come out with Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Driver, Jennings, and every other Packer stud resting firmly on the bench. They’ve done their best work down the stretch, and honestly, they have more to lose (with momentum and injury risk) by actually coming out and trying to win this game in Arizona than they do by sitting down and watching back-ups take one on the chin.

Trying to win and losing (see New Orleans and Minnesota) can do some definite mo-damage while dropping back and staying healthy that final week rarely has an effect, one way or another, on your squad. The Cardinals are still playing for a shot at homefield advantage and a first round bye (believe it or not), so I see them playing starters until they have this game locked up. That’s enough for me.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3):

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Free Football Pick

I can’t help but tell you the truth, I like the Eagles, and I want them to win. That being said, and if you read me with any sort of consistency, you’ll recognize that I go against a team I want to win just as much as I bet on them. It’s because I don’t bet with my heart, I don’t pick with my feelings, and I completely separate the two (betting and rooting) from each other. This just happens to be one of those times where my heart and brain come together as one, and I’m taking the Eagles.

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I’ve always been a strong believer in the truth to the idea that a tough team is hard to beat twice in the same season. This season that’s happened more than a couple times, but those couple times aren’t going to eliminate my feelings on the idea, and I think the Cowboys have a tough time taking down the Eagles for the second time this season. The first win came in Philadelphia, and it was earlier. Well, since then the Eagles have found themselves a bit, and come in looking like one of, if not the best team in the NFC heading into the playoffs. Of course that can all change with one beat down at the hands of the Cowboys, but like I said, I don’t see that happening.

The Cowboys are on a roll, beating the Saints (though they tried to lose that one late), and smacking the Redskins right in their lopsided heads. But they should have beaten the Redskins, and the win over the Saints was a big underdog affair. I think the Eagles put a little pressure on Romo and down go the Cowboys in Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Football Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are easily playing their best football of the season, running with success and playing much better defense. Not only did they smack around the Seahawks two weeks ago, using an arsenal of turnover causing defensive plays, but they went and upset a fully-healthy New Orleans Saints team in New Orleans last week as well, all behind rookie signal caller Josh Freeman. It’s really quite fantastic, I mean beating up on the Seahawks in Seattle is one thing, almost expected if you spend time watching them quit Sunday after Sunday, but the Saints in New Orleans – awesome.

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But that can’t last. You might think it can, but I’m here to tell you it can’t. The won both those games on the road, and that will make winning at home just a little bit different, just a little too different. The Bucs have a solid run-game, but I think the Falcons will feast on a couple arrant Freeman passes, and hello, Atlanta is good. I know they are hurting, definitely a team beat down by injuries this year, but they still have playmakers, and are just flat out better than Tampa Bay.

It all comes down to Tampa Bay winning three games in a row, and how I just absolutely cannot buy into it. If it was a one game thing, with Tampa coming in losing five straight, I could see the upset, but after winning two games in a row? Nope.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams Free NFL Pick

There’s not much too this game in my opinion. The Rams absolutely, in no way whatsoever, if the organization has any sense or feel for their own team and franchise, can not win this football game. They just can’t accept a win here. If they won, they would finish in a tie (likely) with the Detroit Lions, and that would go to a tie breaker for the draft, and that would give the Lions the number one pick over the Rams, and that would eliminate their chance at getting the best player in college football, Mr. Suh. So, like I said, they absolutely can not win this game.

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Luckily for them, they probably couldn’t win this game if they tried. They can’t throw the ball and they are playing against one hell of a run-stuffing unit in San Francisco – plus, the Niners are always trying to win, and their coach will make sure it happens, as a Week 17 win would assure the 49ers a .500 season, something they have to be trying hard to get to considering how much of a win that is for this once proud franchise.

The 49ers have been playing pretty good football over the last few weeks, beating Arizona and Detroit and losing to the Eagles. They’ve been running the ball a lot more, and that gives them the consistency they need to succeed against lesser teams. This one is easy folks, I like the 49ers by 17 points.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ St. Louis Rams:

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Week 17 NFL Picks

This is a tough one indeed. The Giants have all but given up on that evil little tomato-toned rat faced coach of theirs, and it’s even worse for the defensive coordinator. I can’t say I don’t enjoy it a little bit though, in fact, I like it a lot. Nothing makes me happier than seeing those stupid looks from Eli and Coach Coughlin – every single time it has brand new humor to me. The question is, have they given up? Because it’s not like the Vikings are playing sound football either. And it’s not like the Giants are an easy match-up for the Vikings either, as New York matches up well with what the Vikings’ coaches want to do offensively.

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But I’m starting to think the Vikings are ready to actually give this team to Brett. Everyone saw what he could do last week when you open it up a little, and this Giants secondary has become an embarrassing group to watch. Offensively, the Giants can throw it around pretty good, but they don’t have any of that key balance that allows teams to get out of reach.

Having nothing to play for, being frustrated as a group, having no chance at keeping the Vikings out of the playoffs or messing things up for anyone else, I think the Giants are close to a rollover candidate this week, and with Minnesota all in trying to win and get home field advantage, if not at least get back on track and playing good football before the post-season smacks them in the face. I think they take advantage of Week 17 and get going with a big win.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)

NFL Free Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

It’s hard for me to take a Dolphins team that just couldn’t get it done against the Tennessee’s and Houston’s of the world when the playoffs were on the line. Now, the Dolphins need nothing short of a belated Christmas miracle to find themselves in the playoffs, and the only thing that stands in-between them and finishing their part of the bargain is the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers and a defense designed to shut down all of their strengths.

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Did I mention that the Steelers are finally getting some big wins, and after losing five straight games to “all but eliminate” them from any chance at the playoffs, have won two straight ball games against future playoff teams and are currently back in the picture if the cards fall right?

It seems like a lot of stuff going Pittsburgh’s way in this one, but there’s one thing that has me retracing my steps a little bit, and making sure I don’t wager too much on this game. The Steelers have been talking all week, and so have the media types, and it seems like, between them, the Steelers are already getting a notch in the win column for this game. I know a lot about sports, and one of the key parts of playing a good game is putting a notch in the win column after you win the game.

I still like the Steelers, as they match up well with the Dolphins, but this one should be tight.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers NFL Week 17 Predictions

I know the Saints aren’t starting Drew Brees, and who knows who else they are leaving in the locker room, on the bench, at home, etc., but I still expect them to compete for a win. New Orleans is loaded with position players, and they have enough difference makers that will be playing a lot of the game that I like them as a 8.5 point underdog against the Panthers.

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You have to remember, while the Panthers’ passing attack has been solid over the last few weeks, the heart and soul of that attack is out with a broken arm, and the Panthers are still missing plenty of players that will make a big win tough against New Orleans, even if the Saints are playing a meaningless game after all.

After going 13-0, the Saints have lost 2 straight, and have a chance to go into the playoffs riding their only losing streak of the year – and while that’s not the worst thing that could ever happen, you know New Orleans would like to notch out a win to get back on the right track.

When it comes right down to it, I think Mark Brunell knows enough and is good enough to keep the Saints in the game, and when you’re talking about an 8.5 point spread, that’s exactly what you’re looking for. The Saints have been solid all season long, and a Panthers team that also has nothing to play for doesn’t scare me all that much.

New Orleans Saints (+8.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Monday Night Football Pick

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Monday Night Football Pick: The Vikings have played more close games than you’d think, and they haven’t been playing thier best football lately, losing two of three including an embarrassing loss in Carolina to the Panthers. There’s been some problems reported with Brett Favre and head coach Brad Childress, with questions as to who’s in charge. Now that we have that all cleared up, and everyone knows that Brett’s in charge, I think the Vikings will turn it around in Week 16.

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More important that what the Vikings will be doing is the team they are going to be playing. And I know it’s been a disappointing year for Carolina, and the Panthers haven’t played well, but it’s tough to match up with how poorly the Bears have fared after all the pre-season hype.

Who looks like the dummy now folks? All that talk about how stupid Josh McDaniels was for trading away Jay Cutler for a bunch of picks and Kyle Orton seems like rubbish now, doesn’t it? Kyle and the Broncos are on the verge of a playoff birth while Jay and the Bears are a couple wins away from, just 7 freaking wins. That’s right, Chicago is guaranteed a losing season, and lately, they’ve been playing like the bottom tier in the NFL.

Just last week, the Bears made the Ravens offense look like the greatest show on turf, and they’ve lost 6 of 7 to boot. Chicago is just a bad football team, and there’s not much more to say about it. Minnesota better get it right here, if not now than never.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Chicago Bears