Tag Archives: Fantasy Football Guru

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 10

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I’ve been doing my thing. I hope all you readers are digging my advice, I’m getting more emails than ever before, and having a pretty good time interacting with the LL.com supporters out there – keep ’em coming, papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I can always dig some reader interaction. That being said, I can’t get everything right, all I can do is tell you what I think, give you the reasoning behind my opinion (as unpopular or crazy as it may seem, or turn out, for that matter), and take the good and the bad as it comes.

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Before I answer any questions, I’d like to let everyone know, never again will I draft a player that had their offensive coordinator fired just before the season… Never again will I eat a Taco Bell Black Jack Taco… Never will I ever even think about drafting a receiver getting balls thrown to him by any one of the following QB impostors, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Brady or Derek, JaMarcus, a rookie with a “big arm” (that one’s for you Mr. Stafford), or Kerry Collins… Never again will I expect great things out of a receiver in a new place (unless you’re Randy Moss-like and headed to Tom Brady’s neighborhood), or a receiver with a new coach, or a receiver with a new coach in a new place in a bad system, or Roy Williams… And last but not least, never again will I go watch football with my nephew, that Lucky little bastard switches around from game to game faster than my wife flicks through the damn channels when nothing’s on – that’s the only time in my life I wish I didn’t have every damn channel on TV. She goes so fast I can’t even see the naked breasts on skinamax…. NEVER AGAIN! Okay, vent complete, here’s the Q&A section!

Dave in Dakota says, “Papa, I hope the fantasy Gods have been smiling on you. I am hanging in there with my teams. Real quick, Which of these RBs should I try to pickup? (Betts,Bernard Scott,Forsett,Reggie Bush, or Kolby Smith?) These guys won’t start unless a good match up. Maybe a possible keeper in that bunch?”

The fantasy Gods have backed off the humility lesson the last few weeks, and I’m doing better. I would pick up Reggie Bush – he has been very explosive of late, and his surgery looks to be effecting him less and less –  then probably Kolby Smith (his upside is starter in KC where I don’t think anybody else has starter upside in that bunch. Next would be Justin Forsett (though that guy can’t buy touches, he’s always way more efficient than any other Hawk ball carrier but Mora hates his couch). And last Scott. I like Scott’s ability, he’s just a no-touch guy behind Benson (who has become a beast). Hope that helps!

Coach D in Minnesota asks, “Which WR Chambers or James Jones? What do you think of Bengals Def. vs the Packers Def?”

I would probably go with James Jones. I’ve always thought the guy was a starting WR in the league, and he’s making the most of his touches, I think he has 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games or so. Plus, with Nelson out, he’s become the sure #3 WR there, and they have many 3WR sets. But Chambers is a little intriguing. He just did nothing in the last couple years, so it’s hard for me to fully buy in to that performance.

I like the Bengals defense a lot, very opportunistic and stout up front. The Packers are okay, but not great by any means. You can’t trust them to play well any week.

Stan in San Fran writes, “All right, Papabear… here is the scenario: I have been offered Ronnie Brown and Buchalter in exchange for Forte and Westbrook. My other backs are Thomas Jones, Felix Jones and Ladell Betts. Brown and Jones would provide me with a solid RB foundation and their schedules are favorable; plus, both offenses are run oriented. I am, “on paper”, giving up a lot, but, that is only if Forte and Westbrook were performing at projected levels. Your thoughts?”

Papabear? Haha – I don’t even know how to respond to that. I guess I’ll just answer the question and eat all the honey later. I think your offer could be good for you, but Ronnie Brown isn’t always used as he should be, in fact, rarely does he get 20+ carries – then again, neither Forte or Westbrook look like awesome choices going forward either, and I would definitely rather have Brown than either of those two guys. Yeah, I’d go with the Ronnie Brown side of that trade – at the very least you know he’s going to get his carries and they do have a relatively easy schedule moving forward while Forte’s is tough.

Stan also writes, “In addition, and if the trade doesn’t go through, do I start Jones and Forte this week or do I insert Betts with a more favorable matchup than Forte (plus the short week and travel).”

I think I would start Forte and Jones or Betts – Jones just isn’t consistent enough for me, and at the very least I think Forte could catch 5 o 6 balls this week. Betts goes up against a tough Denver defense, but Clinton’s back-up will be getting starter carries, and he’s good at catching the ball out of the back-field as well. It’s a toss up to me, between Jones and Betts, but I think I might go with Betts.

Super Man Canada asks, “I need a look in your crystal ball. What do you see for Ronnie Brown? Ronnie Brown’s numbers have been down lately, do you think defenses are getting the best of the Wildcat, starting to figure it out a bit? My man is slipping.”

I don’t think it’s that, I think it’s that they’ve played the Saints, Jets, and Patriots in 3 straight weeks and Brown hasn’t approached 20 carries in any of those games. Prior to that he had 18 or more carries in 4 straight games, and that’s when he rushed for nearly 400 yards and 6 touchdowns. Who knows, the crystal ball has no guarantees, but Brown looks like one of the better bets moving forward – you know the Dolphins are going to run it, they’re at their best with the ball in Ronnie’s hands, and they play a pretty easy run schedule going forward. Plus, lots of smart people thought Ronnie would have a great year, can’t go against my gut when I’m half way through being right!

The Planless Man asks, “I have been offered Romo, Evans and Maroney for Boldin, Schaub, and Greene. What do you think? I know what I am thinking, but I want to see if you are thinking along the same lines as me. Thanks!”

Not for me. Schaub is better than Romo (though i like both), Boldin is way better than Evans, and while you gain a little with Maroney, I doubt he’ll be a player that is a difference maker for you. So you lose. Unless you’re starting Maroney as one of your Top running backs, you have to steer clear of this deal, a small upgrade at your #3 RB isn’t worth losses at your starting WR and QB spots. Plus, the DECLINE button is awesome to click!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6 Fantasy Football Advice

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It’s been a pretty busy week for me in fantasy football with answering questions for week 6. No doubt the listing of my email address last week (papaweimer50@hotmail.com) was just the trick I needed to be in here hunting and pecking for the right words to answer questions. I’ve listed some late questions and answers from last week’s stuff below, I also have some relevant questions for this weeks fantasy football action. If you have questions, ask them. If I get enough by later in the week, I’ll post my questions and answers again in Ask Papa Weimer Week 6, section b or 2 or something of the sort. Stop trying to confuse me. I’m witty folks, unflappable like Tiger and Larry Bird and Michael Jordan put into one chubby old white dude. I call it how I see it!

Last Week’s Late Questions:

Michael from Denmark wrote in, “I play in a points league, that also awards receptions. I’m pretty well set in most positions, but have big doubts as to who I should start in the flex position. My options are Tashard Choice, Rickie Williams and Roddy White. I like Choice’s matchup against the Chiefs, but with Barber recovering, I fear a dip in his workload. Rickie Williams is playing well, and with Pennington out, he could see enough of the ball to produce good numbers, but I don’t particularly like the Jets matchup. Roddy has been rusty, but as my top draft pick at WR, I feel that I shouldn’t abandon him completely, and I’m confident he will start to produce at some point, I’m just not sure it will be against a strong 49’ers D.”

Michael, thanks for the email. I am pretty sure I would roll with Tashard Choice. He plays against the worst rushing defense in the league, or at least one of them, and while Barber is expected to play, he’s not going to be fully healthy and the Cowboys didn’t want to make him carry the ball every time even when he was fully healthy. Choice is a very good runner that explodes through the line, and he has a very good chance to get a lot of carries for the Cowboys, especially if they get up early against the Chiefs. I wouldn’t start Ricky just because he’s going against the Jets. New York is great against the run, and they certainly won’t be too worried about Chad Henne beating them all day. Roddy is a great player, but until I’m convinced they are going to try and get him the ball, I’m going to stay away from him against great defenses. He’s a beast, always a threat to make a big play, but Nate Clements is one of the best defensive backs in the league, and thus I expect him to give Roddy a tough time all day long. In a better match-up, I would definitely give Roddy a shot. All’s not lost with him, but hopefully the Falcons will start taking chances with their best receiver… I think the match-up insists that Dallas could be up early and up big, and if that’s the case, why would they waste Marion and risk getting him hurt just for mop up duty in the 2nd half? That will be choice’s job, a job he’ll do very well, and he rates out highly as a flex option for me this week. (now of course Roddy White blows up, and Ricky did work too, luckily for me Teshard was plenty for Michael to win his league, even though he started Sims-Walker: he was luckier than me in that regard!)

BSimmons wrote in, “I have a question on which WR to start. Donald Driver is out for me this week and I have Nate Burleson, Donnie Avery and Braylon Edwards with his new team.. Who should I start?? Thanks in advance!”

I think your starter is Nate Burleson, and by a long shot. I’d either wait for Edwards to prove himself in New York, or sell him to someone who loves him in New York. It’s hard to join a team in Week 5 and be a plus player the rest of the year. Chris Chambers wasn’t very good for San Diego a few years back, and Roy Williams did nothing in Dallas last season. I don’t know of a situation where a mid season trade at receiver went well for that receiver’s fantasy stats. Avery is a nice talent, but he’s still battling a hamstring injury, and his QB situation is brutal at best. I’d leave him on your bench until he proves that he’s completely healthy. Nate has a great match-up against a porous secondary, and he gets nearly 10 targets a game or something like that. I like him as a start this week. Hope that helps! (all of these guys had nice weeks, but I found the top gun of the three, as Nasty Nate finished with 10 more points than either Donnie or Braylon – that being said, Braylon really impressed me for the Jets, he could be a solid play the rest of the season. I wonder if he eats into Jericho’s numbers?)

Stuck in a Trailer writes, “I’m stuck in a trailer in Colorado. I figured my best bet was to ask you my fantasy question this week.  Do I really sit Steve Smith (NYG),  my other receivers are Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Sims-walker.  A lot of people seem to think these guys are the better choice this week.  What’s your thought? Thanks!”

Has the snow begun or what? Jammed up in a trailer, I can see sitting Steve Smith. Anquan Boldin has a great match-up against the Houston Texans secondary, Larry Fitz should get lots of attention, and you know Kurt and company will be throwing the ball. Calvin Johnson plays against a Steelers secondary that has been brutal against the pass this season. And Mike Sims-Walker goes against the Seahawks, minus their only stud corner (Trufant) and in a huge rut the last three weeks. Steve has a tough match-up with Nnamdi but you’re right, it’d be tough for me to sit him after all he’s done. I’m not sure he’s the type of receiver that Oakland will try to take away with their top corner, but there’s a chance. If I were going to sit one guy and play Smith, I would sit Calvin Johnson, if only because if I was Pittsburgh I would just try to blitz the snot out of Culpepper with double coverage on Calvin. So yes, I would probably end sitting Steve Smith, but it’s a coin flip with Calvin. Steve has the tougher match-up, and is playing against a bad Oakland team so Eli won’t be throwing as much. Hope this helps! (who knew Calvin would get hurt immediately and Mike Sims-Walker would not even get to play because he broke a curfew or something – sorry man, hope the Trailor is warming up! – At least I helped him out properly with this next one…

” Stuck in a Trailer tries me again, “Thanks for the Quick reply.  I just might sit Steve this week and hope it proves to be one of those decisions I can brag about.  Your input was helpful in my decision making so I thought I might get your take on one more conundrum.  DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis or Reshard Mendenhall. Can only pick two and so far I think I have switched them around about nine times. No snow as of yet, but between awaiting your responses I’m stocking the wood shed.”

This Week’s Early Questions:

David in Minnesota sent a fearsome foursome of questions my way, “Maclin or Manningham who will be better in the long run? Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Ward, or Fred Jackson which of these would you keep and why? What about giving up Manningham for Sims-Walker, would you make that deal? How would you rank the following and why: Royal,Collie, Nicks Hakeem, and Crabtree.I am looking for a bye week replacement and a potential WR to take over for TO if he and Edwards don’t get their act together. Thanks for all your help!”

Anytime David – Here are your answers in order of the questions… Career-wise, Maclin, he’s a special dynamic – and this season, it’s a tough one. It depends on what you’re going for. Owning an eagle receiver is a scary gig. How many games will DeSean Jackson have 1 catch for 0 yards? I think Manningham is going to be good for 4-5 catches a week, a touchdown 6 or 7 times, and a decent flex or back-up receiver start. I think Maclin could have a couple no-shows, like Jackson this week, but that’s because the Eagles roll that way. It’s tough, surely, but I think Maclin has a better chance to have a huge week while Manningham has a better chance to be decent week in and week out. But, with the Eagles you really never know. If you want consistency, Manningham is probably your best bet. If you want a shot at big points, Maclin is your lottery ticket. Hope that helps David, that’s the best I can do.

Boy, tough call on those running backs; And it would depend on who your other running backs are. If you’re looking for a guy that might not do anything, but if his starter gets hurt he’ll be a Top 10 back, stick with Chester Taylor. Fred Jackson is another guy like that, but he should probably continue to get fantasy numbers, so keeping him around might be easier, but his upside isn’t as high as Chester’s. Derrick Ward has lost a lot of value with the emergence of Caddy and his health, and the demergence of the Bucs wanting to win this season. Jamal Lewis looks like he’ll get all the carries if he’s healthy, and that offensive line is tough, but I just don’t see the offense in Cleveland being worth while this year, that passing game is quite pukeish. Still, of all the guys you listed, I think Jamal is the surest thing for carries on a weekly basis. He has some tough match-ups, but if you’re looking for a guy to start week in and week out, Lewis might be your answer. Again, not a sure thing answer here, but hope that helps.

As for the WR switch, I would much rather have Sims-Walker….
And finally, I’d take Royal #1 because he is the best receiver you’ve listed, and he’s not a rookie. Hakeem Nicks and Collie are tied, in my mind, they will both be contending with other receivers all year long, and while Collie has been more productive, he’ll lose touches in two weeks when Gonzo returns from injury while Nicks might gain touches as he gets more comfortable with the NFL and Giants’ offense. I like Crabtree a lot, but he’s been out of football for quite some time, remember, he spent much of his off season getting healthy and staying off his foot. His talent is immense, no doubt, but it’s a long shot that he’s a top talent this season, so I’d rate him last out of that bunch, for this season.