Tag Archives: Fantasy Sports

Fantasy Focus: Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings

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Alright, it’s getting a little terrible. Josh has won 2 weeks in a row, and I received his fantasy rankings this week entitled, “The Three-peat Rankings” – Puke. Not only did I get dominated last week, I set an all time low for fantasy rankings on my own site, pulling home 4th in every single category. Heartache, pain, suffering – none of that, don’t worry – I’m just downright pissed off at my inability to see the entire board lately. But I’m destined to get back to my winning ways, so why not start this week? You’ve got to believe in your stuff, and confidence has never been an issue for me. Let the games begin! It’s about time someone else started winning Arse. If you three-peat, I’ll send you a present to the darkness!

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Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Maurice Jones Drew– The Bills allow more yards and touchdowns to running backs than any other team in the NFL. Yep.
2. Chris Johnson – I do actually think the Texans D will play better this time around, but so what, CJ will still do work.
3. Adrian Peterson – Big Backs kill Hawks – it’s very similarly proven to E=MC2.
4. Peyton Manning – I can’t see a better QB option this week, the Ravens secondary should prepare for the worst.
5. Ray Rice– If the Ravens want to beat the Colts for the first time in 7 games, they better feed it to Ray.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Steve Smith (NYG) – The Giants SS is good to go this week, the Falcons secondary is porous.
2. Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall > Kansas City Chiefs.
3. DeSean Jackson – I’m loving DeSean against the Bears secondary. That kind of speed should torch them.
4. Ricky Williams –Ricky moves up from sleeper status because of Ronnie’s injury. I’d be starting him if I had him.
5. Sidney Rice –Tough to go against Rice right now, especially with Seattle in town.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Justin Forsett – I don’t care if the Hawks are headed up against Minnesota, this kid can find yards if he gets carries.
2. Beanie Wells – Last week I called his best week of the season, I’m going for 2 in a row.
3. Jeremy Maclin –The Bears will see a lot of passes this Sunday Night, Maclin, like Jackson, has that painful speed.
4. LeSean McCoy– McCoy has a good match-up against the Bears, a defensive front that isn’t as scary as they insist.
5. Fred Jackson– It’s a deep trick shot, for sure, but Fred should see his highest touch numbers since Lynch returned.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Joseph Addai– He burned me in the 4th quarter last week, but I think I’m right this time.
2. Derrick Mason– The Pats killed the Colts secondary, but I think the Ravens run too much this week.
3. Jay Cutler – He has the talent to bust out any week, but the Eagles will feast on his mistakes if he plays like Jay Cutler.
4. Roy Williams – The Cowboys won’t have time to mess with the whole #1 receiver game, the Skins have a tough secondary.
5. Matthew Stafford– Don’t start a bad player because of a supposed good match-up, plus the Browns D is better than you think.

***No more Bye weeks, but don’t get caught starting old man Clinton Portis or older man Brian Westbrook – both are definitely out this week, and there’s other’s too! Mind the Doctor!!!

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Week 11 Fantasy Rankings

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Fantasy Focus: Week 6 Fantasy Football Analysis

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The old man made it two weeks in a row, but at least it stayed in family again. Despite Red Red and Josh’s fantasy genius, neither has found a top spot in any one week this year. But I’m not settling for 2nd, getting the top spot three straight weeks to start the season felt a lot nicer than two straight 2nd place finishes. I’m out for the glory in Week 6. There are some more gross games that you’d like to stay away from this week (Rams/Redskins for one) and some great ones that fantasy should shine in. Here are the predictions for Week 6’s Fantasy Football action. Let the ghost of Drew Bledsoe in Patriot-ic red, white, and blue and his chubby 7th grader-like athleticism shine through with rapture, lead me back to the promise land you dopey Cougar!!!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. DeAngelo Williams – It’s a shot in the dark, maybe, and Williams hasn’t been great this year, but Tampa calls…
2. Randy Moss – Tennessee Titans. Remember the Titans? Remember how they had a great secondary last year. Forget that.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – He struggled last week, but in comes St. Louis to quell all problems.
4. Tom Brady – I’m starting to like anyone against the Titans secondary, but Tom has a special place in my heart.
5. Brandon Marshall – The big talented kid has seemingly figured it out, and that means bad things for San Diego.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Matt Hasselbeck – Arizona really doesn’t let you run it, but they sure allow you to pass it. Matty can do that.
2. T.J. Housmandzadeh – If you like Matt this week, and I do, you have to like T.J.
3. Cedric Benson – This cat is running down hill. He put up a big number on Baltimore, Houston should fall like dominoes.
4. Brett Favre – A lot of people will be confused and sit Brett against Baltimore, should be one of this better throwing games.
5. Wes Welker – I think Welker has 10 or more catches for at least 100 yards this week. That’s 20 points and a great day.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – There was no reason for him to go undrafted in most leagues, he’s a weekly starter, this week should be great.
2. Donnie Avery – The kid is finally getting healthy and he can fly, Jacksonville struggles to stop even kiwi bird air attacks.
3. Rashard Mendenhall – I’ll ride this super sophomore until he lets me down, especially against the league’s worst run D.
4. Kyle Orton – The Chargers let opponents have their way, and Josh McDaniels likes to throw the rock. Good for Orton owners.
5. Eddie Royal – I love me some Eddie Royal this week against San Diego, especially since he saw 15 targets last week.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Fred Jackson – It’s going to be tough for me to play Fred much, Lynch gets more carries and more receptions.
2. Vincent Jackson – An impossible guy to sit on most teams, but if you have other solid options, I think he struggles.
3. Julius Jones – Hopefully you listened to Red Red Ryan and traded him when he had value, AZ won’t allow much.
4. Santonio Holmes – Because why would the Steelers pass more than 20 times when they could run to victory easily?
5. Steve Slaton – In a non-ppr league, I think you sit Slaton. If it’s PPR, don’t expect a great day, but could be playable.

PS – Don’t play Dolphins, 49ers, Colts, and Cowboys in Week 6! Byes! Mind the gap!

Week 6 Fantasy Pre-Rankings

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Michael Koenen has a special place in the hearts of everyone at LuckyLester.com – until he’s kicking field goals again, we’re not ranking the position ever… Get a 60 yarder Mikey!

Fantasy Football Analysis: Ten For Tuesday

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“Brett Favre looked like the much better quarterback all night long, but in the end his fantasy points were very similar to Aaron Rodgers’ totals. Ridiculous.” That’s what a buddy posted on my fantasy league’s message board after Monday Night’s game. So what, the people out there that want to believe great fantasy numbers make you the best player is confused. This is fantasy football, where team wins matter little, and garbage time is tacked on just the same. Rodgers put up 380+ yards, more than a 100 more than Brett. He gave up a couple turnovers, but those high numbers kept the fantasy night close. You can’t score points based on how good you looked, it’s all about numbers in this one….    Rashard Mendenhall looked like the beast I thought he would be since he decided to leave Illinois. Now he runs a little high, and that could subject him to some big hits, but he hits the hole hard, runs with power, and often spins or bounces off that first tackle. If he continues to get touches, he’s a nice find for those owners that either picked him up or kept him during his early woes. When he came out, I thought Mendenhall would be the best back in his class. That was saying a lot considering he came out with guys like McFadden, Jon Stewart, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice and others. I’m not positive he’ll pan out as the best of that stellar bunch, but I still like his future….    Speaking of last year’s draft, it has been nothing short of amazing. The amount of gamebreaking players that are tearing up the league right now as sophomores is amazing, even in the fantasy realm. I count 20 guys that have been fantasy relevant this year, just in the first 4 rounds – that’s not normal…..  The 49ers dominated the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, proving once again that their “need” for Michael Crabtree isn’t as pressing as the former Texas Tech star expected. Stories have surfaced that Crabtree and his agent are ready to get back to the bargaining table. It’s about damn time. I’ve now dropped the kid in both the leagues I’ve owned him in, and I’m keeping him on the waiver wire, but if you’re looking for a chance to take, he’s a deep shot in the dark….     Eli Manning has been worth every single dollar the Giants paid him this off-season, and yes, that took a lot for me to say. He’s going to have to really bite the dust hard if he wants to have the “normal Eli year” and I don’t think it’s going to happen. But things like his little heel problem throw, are part of the reason why I’ll never like this guy. He dropped back, landed weird on his foot, lost his balance, regained it, only to try and throw and fall down in the process like someone shot him in the foot. And what happened? Dude’s heel is bruised. Please……    I predicted a huge year from Ronnie Brown, and so far he’s looking pretty good to me. The guy is a beast, his vision is perfect, his all around game is impressive, and his team will be relying heavily on him to win ball games. He’s averaging just over 90 yards per game and a touchdown per. But this might be the height of his fantasy stock for a while. The guy is legit, but he goes up against the Jets (twice), and the Saints, in the next three games. It gets easier after that, but I’m just saying, get ready for some tough sledding ahead….    The Raiders offense sucks! 6 points against the Texans, come on….   Now the Saints running attack had a pretty solid outing against one of the best run defenses in football this Sunday, Pierre Thomas is the real deal; but it’s that stellar defensive transformation that continues to amaze me. The Saints really know how to bring pressure, often fooling teams into mishaps that leave open rushers despite rushing fewer people than offensive blockers. If you can get pressure on 6 blockers with 4 and 5 rushers, often going unblocked, you’re going to win a lot of football games….     Now this is the David Garrard I know and love. His accuracy, mistake free football, and efficiency has been great over the last two games. His 5-1 TD to INT ratio is consistent with his ability, and I think he’ll continue to put up solid numbers all season long. He got Torry Holt in the off-season, and that was huge, but seeing Mike Sims-Walker become a go-to guy will do wonders for this whole team. It’s just nice to finally see Garrard not running for his life every snap, his O-line is getting better every week….    I’d like to congratulate Denver for their awesome start to the season. I warned a lot of people that the Broncos weren’t as bad as everyone thought, but not even I thought they’d be this solid. Defensively they have gotten very tough, and Kyle Orton might be starting to figure out the talent he has on the outside (though he still hasn’t discovered Eddie Royal). Knowshon Moreno is going to be a special player, and it’s beginning to look like this McDaniels guy knows what he’s doing afterall, huh? I’ve liked him from the start, and his 4-0 beginning, the way he went and gave Marshall a hug after that game winning catch and run, and his overall passion and respect for the game is encouraging. Not only is his future bright, but I expect it to be long as well.

Fantasy Football Picks: Ten for Wednesday

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Chad Pennington is out for the season and in comes the youngster Chad Henne to show everyone he’s better than he played in relief last week. Henne has a better arm and can throw the deep ball better than Chad, but will he play mistake free enough to keep the starting gig? Tyler Thigpen was sent to Miami to be Henne’s back-up, and I truly think that was the Dolphins’ intentions. I think Henne keeps the job and ends up helping out a guy like Ted Ginn Jr….   Darren McFadden fumbled the ball three times, doesn’t see the hole that well, and has 11 guys focused on trying to tackle him as soon as he gets the ball. I’m not saying dump McFadden, in fact, I think you could get the guy for next to nothing and he’s worth the risk, but I don’t think I’d start him unless you are desperate or he does some actual damage (though this week he has a pretty decent match-up if you want to gamble)….   Speaking of JaMarcus Russell, can a guy be any less confident throwing a football than he is? He can’t even seem to connect with Zach Miller anymore. After ending the season on a very high note, winning a couple games, completing a respectable percentage, and throwing 6-2 TD to INT, many thought Russell would take the next step. If the next step was all rotten and dropped off into a hot lava pit, that was right on the button…..    Eli Manning has been very good. That’s hard for me to write down, but what more can I say? I thought teams would be able to stack up against the run, but you just can’t do that to Eli anymore. His receivers are better than anyone thought, and maybe he’s worth all that money the Giants invested into him after all. That makes me sick to my stomach, or maybe that’s just the burgers……    Jake Delhomme may be just about done, but I have to blame the play calling for the Panthers’ complete demise. DeAngelo Williams had 11 carries for the love of god. 11. And the Panthers were on top and or tied for quite some time. Not only did he not get the ball enough, but in 11 carries he totaled over 60 yards. That looks good to me. Seems like if you did a lot more of handing him the ball you’d win a game or two…..    Aaron Rodgers has not looked good through the first three games. He still has decent fantasy numbers, but for the majority of game time he’s been overthrowing receivers, picking the wrong guy, and just flat out looking rusty. He’ll be fine, don’t worry, but how often does this kind of thing happen? A guy walks through the pre-season completing every pass he throws only to struggle out of the gates. It’s weird…..    Game smarts: where have you gone? Seneca Wallace, special teams players, NFL coaches – I feel like the first three games have been an interview for new reality show titled “Dumb is the new Fun”. How can quarterbacks run out of bounds 6 yards behind the line of scrimmage when all you have to do is throw the ball into the freaking stands? How can a kick return guy run out of bounds only to sprint in front of his teammates on a rolling punt and be the first to touch it? How can Jim Mora call a 2 yard out to Julius Jones on 4th and 3 with 29 seconds to go? How can Chad Pennington run a QB sneak for a first down on 3rd and 1 with a minute left in the game when he needs a touchdown to score? These first few weeks have been crazy, but somebody needs to teach these guys some rules. Good lord!…..   Matt Forte, ugh. 21 carries for 66 yards, against the Hawks? At least Jay Cutler checked it down to him a couple times, but this was supposed to be the game that Forte stepped up his production. Needless to say, that wasn’t really the case…..   LenDale White might not be getting enough carries to be fantasy worthy, but Chris Johnson won’t hold up with 25 touches a game all season. As much as I love Chris’s game, White is going to get an opportunity, and he’s going to run with it. He’s run well despite limited looks. Keep your eye on the big guy…..  How does Tampa bench Byron Leftwich? I know they are struggling and 0-3 and young and maybe want to see what one of their young guys can do, but Byron was only good through the first two weeks. The Giants were in his face every snap last Sunday, but Byron’s numbers were goo prior to that. I don’t think Josh Johnson will be as good as Lefty, and Josh Freeman is not ready either. Interesting move, not a good sign if you own Kellen Winslow, Antonio Bryant, or even a running back. Not good if you own Byron either.

NFL Fantasy Football Advice: Ask Papa Weimer Week 3

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I’m old. I’m tired. I’m grumpy. My ass hurts from sitting in this chair. Where can I get one of those soft little pillow doughnut things to sit on anyway? Note to family: get my ace a nice chair for Christmas or you’re not getting any inheritance. I’ve had questions screaming in this week, people wondering which guy to start, who to trade, who to target in trades. These are the questions and answers I picked out to share.

Dennis in and out of the US asks, “I have a couple guys that I think are overachieving, and I know there are some players out there underachieving. Of these four guys (Percy Harvin, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and Santonio Holmes) which ones would you try to trade, and are there any guys you’d try to grab while their value is down?

Red Red Ryan makes a pretty good point about Cedric Benson, but I think he’s still a solid guy to have on your squad, he and the three other guys you mention should all have solid years, but you’re right in assessing their value right now, it’s probably higher than it should be. I would probably try to move Benson, Harvin, and Williams and keep Holmes, if you can get some good value. I think Holmes might be a treat for fantasy owners that paid the price for his services this season. He’s getting tons of targets on a Steelers team that doesn’t run the ball well, and is going to throw a lot more this season. Plus, he’s a playmaker. But like I said, all four of these guys are solid, I just think Holmes holds onto his value all season long, while a couple of these guys will fall off. In a trade, I would try to acquire Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith (Carolina), Ryan Grant, Knowshon Moreno, and Daren McFadden. All of those guys have pretty low value considering their ability, and all look like they are going to gain some value this week. I think all of them will have pretty solid seasons. Forte and Slaton have begun the season with really tough match-ups. Portis has an easier schedule coming up. Steve Smith’s value is still suffering despite being heavily targeted early in the season. Ryan Grant will get more rushing attempts from here forward. Moreno is dynamic and will only get better as he gets used to the speed of the game. And McFadden is still a superior talent. If you can trade some guys flying high for a couple guys that haven’t impressed owners, I think it’s a good move.

David from Minnesota asks, “Would you trade LT away to get Ray Rice? How about Leon Washington and TJ Houshmanzadeh moving to get LT and Donald Driver or Percy Harvin? Thanks in advance!”

David, thanks for the questions. These must be different leagues as you’re trading away LT in one, and getting him in another. On the first half, Yeah, I think so. I think LT will be fine. But Ray Rice is solid too – tough call, but I’d probably go with LT if I had the choice. On the second question, It just depends what you think about the Hawks and their recent string of injuries to start the season. I personally think they’ll get healthy here very soon, and TJ Housh will be huge, especially in PPR leagues – so I would much rather have him than Driver or Harvin, even though he’s firmly behind them in rankings thus far. Leon looks like he’s getting at least 20 touches per game, which should lead to some big days. ON the other side, as much as I love LT, I’m not sure he’s going to be getting much more than 20 touches the rest of the way. The Jets have a stellar offensive line, better than the Chargers if you ask me. If I had to choose, between LT and Leon, I would go with LT, like I said – but I don’t think I’d give up Housh to do so – his value is still high on my board.

Pretty Patty in Seattle asks, “Weims, having trouble picking my starters this week. Who do you like this week between these guys. (Need to pick 3 to go with my other two starting receivers, colston and manningham) Thanks! (Steven Jackson, Darren Mcfadden, Leshon McCoy, Braylon Edwards, Johnny Knox, Nate Burleson) PPR league…

Pretty, McCoy would be a sure thing if, and only if, you’re sure Westbrook isn’t playing. He should get lots of carries against the Chiefs porous run defense, and if it’s a PPR league I’m sure he’ll get a handful of catches as well. Steven Jackson is one of the three no matter what. The Packers have been terrible against the run, and I’m sure Jackson will be a huge part of the Rams game plan as they try to trick the Packers out of a win. Bulger can only throw 10 yards accurately, which puts Jackson in his range most of the time. Plus, he’s just flat out the best player in this group, and you have to go with your horses. I think another guy would be Braylon Edwards. Surprisingly, the Ravens have been pretty terrible against the pass, as Brodie Croyle of all clowns, had a good outing against them in Week 1, and Rivers torched them to the tune of one billion yards in Week 2. The problem with the Ravens is they are so good against the run, and they’ll likely be up early, so the Browns will probably have to throw a lot. I usually don’t like Cleveland offensive players, but 7 catches and 100 yards from Edwards wouldn’t surprise me. If Westy is going to play, and from what I read, it looks like he will, I think I’d go with McFadden. Now this one is a little tricky because Denver has been great against the run this season, but then again, you have to look at who they’ve played. Cincinnati and Cleveland aren’t two rushing attacks that strike fear into my heart. So I’m not sure they’re as good as they are lucky to have been scheduled to pissy running attacks to start the season. The Raiders can really run, and McFadden should get the ball more this week. JaMarcus Russell has been a joke (he’s barely batting .350 through the air, gross) so Denver could stack up against the run – but I still think they don’t have elite front 7 power, and McFadden should have his best yardage output of the season. If you don’t want to go with McFadden, take a chance on Nate or Knox. Nate’s been getting targeted lots of times, and obviously a dynamic touchdown threat, he could get to the house against a Bears secondary that doesn’t really have the speed to cover elite WRs. Nate might not be elite, but his speed and touchdown play potential is definitely amongst the games best. Knox is looking like one of Cutler’s favorite targets, and the Hawks secondary isn’t an exciting shut down group at the moment. I just think the Bears will run a lot more this week against a D-front that doesn’t look powerful after Frank Gore had his way with them. So I’d side with Nate, but just barely. Hope that helps, Patty. Good luck!

Week 2 Fantasy Football News: Ten for Tuesday

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After two weeks, Drew Brees is on pace to throw 72 touchdown passes while gaining one million yards (but is still second to Phillip Rivers in the yardage area). His QB Rating is 132.9, damn near perfect. However, it’s not Brees and his 9 touchdowns that has me amazed. It’s second year studs, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco that have me impressed. These guys haven’t heard of sophomore slump, both have their teams undefeated, and are tied for second in QB TDs behind Drew….   Three offensive coordinators were fired right before the season started, of the three, it looks like only the Chiefs little fella has had any effect, and that might be pushing it. See Buffalo is moving the ball and putting up points despite cutting their OC, Trent Edwards is Top 5 in passer rating and tied for 4th with four touchdowns thus far. Byron Leftwich has also tossed 4 touchdowns while Tampa’s running game has put up some solid totals as well. The Chiefs have been brutal, but it’s hard to see KC being much better with Bill Walsh calling plays….    Brett Favre has the highest completion percentage in the NFL, and has yet to toss an interception. So much for him being too much of a gunslinger, and starting off the season a little rusty after spending more time throwing to high school receivers than pro guys. It has to be nice handing the ball to Mr. Peterson……  The 2007 Draft class is beginning to look like a quarterback bust. So far, the best season has to be given to Tyler Thigpen for his performance down the stretch last year. Trent Edwards is probably the best player of the bunch, especially given that Tyler couldn’t beat out Brodie Croyle for the Chiefs #3 job. Maybe Troy Smith would be getting the nod if he had not gotten hurt before the 2008 season, but Joe Flacco has that job on lock down so we may never see. The two first round picks, Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell (not in that order) have been guys I’ve tried to like, but they are making it very difficult to do so….    Matthew Stafford is not ready to be an NFL quarterback. I don’t know how else to put it. I know his first name is Matt, and last year a guy named Matt was a first year stud, but it’s not that kind of copycat league. He throws the ball really hard, and will pull an amazing toss out of his ace here and there, but the kid has a guy named Calvin Johnson on his team, of course he’s going to look good now and again. The Lions have lost nearly 20 straight football games, I know they’re not going to win a lot this year, but they might want to get Culpepper in there so they have a chance to break that streak before it gets into the 30s….   Speaking of that class, it may not have been QB heavy (to say the least) but there are some absolute freaks of nature (from that group) taking the league by storm. Adrian Peterson, beast. Calvin Johnson, freak. Patrick Willis, machine. Darrell Revis, stud. And there’s more pro-bowlers from that group. It may be top heavy, but you could argue that those four guys are either the best but no lower than Top 5 at their positions…..   Marc Bulger is brutal. Somebody tell me how Jeff Garcia can just get signed last week when Marc Bulger can have a starting gig and millions of dollars getting paid to him to do what he does. Brutal. If they lose 16, they need to get the nod for worst team of all time….    It’s hard to write a weekly fantasy re-cap without mentioning Mario Manningham, it’s not fair to you guys and it’s not fair to him. Manningham looked like a beast in college, but he looks frail in the NFL. But looks can be deceiving, because all you have to do is ask the Cowboys to understand how tough this guy is to tackle. Apparently Elly Manning knew something when he told everyone that he expected big things from mini-Mario. He’s fast enough to get open, runs good routes, and has shown fearlessness when catching the ball in traffic. Steve Smith has been solid, but I don’t expect this to be Mario’s only good week. And I don’t know if the Giants are going to have a mediocre receiving corps for long. A trio of Hakeem Nicks, Mario, and Smith – with Hixon as a 4 – that is going to be a good group…..   Julius Jones in Week 1 or Julius Jones in Week 2? Somewhere inbetween. It’s tough to fault him completely for his 8 carry for 11 yard performance against the 49ers. The Hawks will start getting offensive linemen back this next week, and should get better as the season moves forward. That being said, they only play the Rams one more time – still, Jones will be alright…..   Felix Jones is still averaging over 8 yards per carry, which is just disgusting. I know he only has 13 carries this season, and barely over 40 for his short career, but he might get real carry numbers next week, and here’s to hoping he continues to bust carry’s off for 8.9 per clip. He might be the only RB in the history of the NFL that averages more yards per run than he does per catch….   Brandon Jacobs, Darren McFadden, and Kevin Smith: 3 guys I thought would have big years, are all averaging less than 4 yards a carry through 2 games. Kevin Smith has had a tough time early, but Sunday’s 85 yard performance against a stout Vikings defense makes me think he’ll be just fine. Jacobs should start to see more running room with Elly and his receivers looking good enough for the girls he goes with. And McFadden, well, unless Russell starts showing defenses that he can complete more than half his passes, he’s going to struggle to find room. Still, if you’re paying a running back that much cake, get him the ball at least 20 times a game. Yeah, that’s 11, not 10, so sue me.

theRUNDOWN: Week 17

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What is theRUNDOWN? I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else, we call these splinter butts because of their need to be benched – this is the last week of the year, and quite possibly the last Rundown ever – only because I figure there might be a better way to go about my weekly fantasy predictions -anyway, without further a due, this is theRUNDOWN for Week 17.

QB: Phillip Rivers vs. Denver: Because this is Philip Rivers’ team now, and they will need him to continue his huge season to get into the playoffs. Not only that, but this guy somehow got snubbed by not making the Pro-Bowl, and he’s out to show everyone the mistake they made.

RB: Kevin Smith vs. Green Bay: The Packers lost yet another game that they should have won when they took an OT shot to the face last week against the Bears. The Packers can’t stop the run, and I know Kevin is getting the ball 23-30 times this week. That’s more than I can say about most running backs – with playing time in question, I’ll take this solid young back that’s gotten better as the season matured.

RB: Michael Turner vs. St. Louis: The Falcons have to go into their game against the Rams with hopes of a first round bye. That means Turner pounding the Rams into submission, and that’s a good thing for Mike Turner owners. I think he’ll have a huge Week 17.

FLEX: Pierre Thomas vs. Carolina: It’s a tough match-up for Thomas, but in this PPR format and in a game that should be close, he’s going to get around 20 carries and 5-8 catches – that makes for a good game from this ultra-talented back.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Seattle: This guy is a beast for Seattle’s little corners to match-up with, and I think the Cardinals come out winging it around against the Hawks. Fitzy is one of the most consistent receivers in the league, and in a game where Arizona needs to find their mojo, I see Kurt looking under the Larry Fitz rock.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Philadelphia: He hasn’t had a real big week in a while, but I think TO gets back to wrecking the Eagles with a huge game against his former team. TO is a gong-show, no doubt about that, but he’s a gong-show with amazing ability, the ability he loves to torment the Eagles with.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Cincinnati: I’m not giving up on Tony – he’s legit, against Cincinnati he looks like the best play around.

K: Robbie Gould vs. Houston: Dome games and kickers are a nice combo, and the Bears offense is just bad enough to move a little bit and get in FG range before being halted.

D: Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland: I just see Ken Dorsey causing more problems for the Browns offense, and the Steelers turnover causing defense will be at it again, starters or not.

PAPA’S Week 17 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: I like this match-up, especially if you get more points for a quarterback rushing touchdown. Thigpen gets 40-50 yards a week, and it most leagues that’s just like a free touchdown. He’s a great start this week against the Bungles.
Jason Campbell: With the last game here, and the pressure off, maybe Zorn will take the reigns off as they say. Let the kid throw the ball down field!
Joe Flacco: I like the kid this week against the Jags, what’s not to like?
Larry Johnson: I’m thinking that LJ gets more carries this week than he has over the last few weeks, and I think he does some nice work against the Bengals.
Fred Jackson: I don’t think Lynch plays, and that makes Jackson a great start. Fred does a lot of things well, catching the ball too, and he should get lots of touches against the Patriot, and that’s a good thing against a run defense that isn’t great.
Jon Stewart: I think Stewart gets the Lion’s share of the carries this week as Williams gets a little bit of a rest. I think Stewart has a BIG game.
Chad Johnson: Chad hasn’t had a big game all year – that’s too rare for this game breaker, even if Ryan Fitz is his QB – I like him to have his highest yardage output of the season against the Chieftains.
Mewelde Moore: He’s been better than Fast Willie, so much so that I think Parker gets the axe headed into next season. Moore will get a lot of carries this week, and that’s good for him.
Mark Bradley: You bet! The former Bear is back in action, and I’m willing to bet that he has a big game in his second game back from injury. Thigpen loves him. Anytime Mark’s on the field, Tyler has seemed to have big games.
Greg Olsen: How about the Bears knowing what’s good for them and getting the ball to this playmaker? I see them doing that in the final week.
Atlanta Falcons: Bye week #2 seed on the line, St. Louis in their way, I see big plays and a big day from Atlanta.

Papa’S Week 17 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Peyton Manning: If he plays, he won’t play long, the Colts are one of the few teams in football that can’t better or worsen their position this week, and Tony Dungy is a guy that believes in resting his stars before the playoffs.
Marshawn Lynch: What do the Bills gain by playing Lynch? Nothing is the answer, except further risk of a lingering ailment.
Jamal Lewis: No thank you. What an impossible season schedule for Jamal.